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At least 883 records · Page 49

Sensitivity of the Assimilated Ozone in the UTLS to Model and Data Selection Changes

This presentation will discuss the sensitivity of assimilated ozone fields in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) to a number of factors, focusing mainly on aspects of data selection and the prediction model. This is important, because assimilation represents an attempt to construct our best estimates of the true ozone field; however, inaccuracies in the UTLS ozone distribution translate into an uncertainty in factors such as the calculated radiative forcing of climate or the inferred stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) of ozone. The 3D ozone data assimilation system, from NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), combines observations of total ozone column and stratospheric profiles with predictions from an off-line, parameterized chemistry and transport model (pCTM) to produce six-hourly, global analyses. The first experiments discussed assimilate ozone retrievals from the Earth-Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (EPTOMS) and stratospheric profiles from the Solar Backscatter UltraViolet/2 (SBUV/2) instrument. The SBUV/2 ozone data have a coarse vertical resolution, with increased uncertainty below the ozone maximum, and TOMS provides only total ozone columns. Thus, the assimilated ozone profiles in the UTLS region are only weakly constrained by the incoming SBUV and TOMS data. Consequently, the assimilated ozone distribution should be sensitive to changes in inputs to the statistical analysis scheme. Sensitivity studies have been conducted to examine the responses to TOMS and SBUV/2 data selection, modifications of the forecast and observation error covariance models, and the model formulation (turning off chemistry or using different wind analyses in the pCTM). The second set of experiments includes an additional data type: ozone retrieved from infrared limb-emission by MIPAS on Envisat. These data offer not only improved vertical resolution in the stratosphere, but also give measurements in the polar night. Comparisons of the assimilated ozone fields from both sets of experiments with independent observations, primarily ozone sondes, are used to determine the impact of each of these changes. It is shown that many of the changes have a significant impact on the UTLS ozone estimates. Implications for interpretation of STE and radiative forcing of climate are discussed.

Pawson, Steven↗

An improved error assessment for the GEM-T1 gravitational model

Several tests have been designed to estimate the correct error variances for the GEM-T1 gravitational solution that was derived exclusively from satellite tracking data. The basic method uses both independent and dependent subset data solutions and produces a coefficient-by-coefficient estimate of the model uncertainties. The GEM-T1 errors have been further analyzed using a method based on eigenvalue-eigenvector analysis, which calibrates the entire covariance matrix. Dependent satellite data sets and independent altimetric, resonant satellite, and surface gravity data sets all confirm essentially the same error assessment. The calibration test results yield very stable calibration factors, which vary only by approximately 10 percent over the range of tests performed. Based on these calibrated error estimates, GEM-T1 is a significantly improved solution, which to degree and order 8 is twice as accurate as earlier satellite derived models like GEM-L2. Also, by being complete to degree and order 36, GEM-T1 is more complete and has significantly reduced aliasing effects that were present in previous models.

Lerch, F. J.↗

Can Assimilation of Satellite Ozone Data Contribute to the Understanding of the Lower Stratospheric Ozone?

We study the quality of lower stratospheric ozone fields from a three- dimensional global ozone assimilation system. Ozone in this region is important for the forcing of climate, but its global distribution is not fully known because of its large temporal and vertical variability. Modeled fields often have biases due to the inaccurate representation of transport processes in this region with strong gradients. Accurate ozonesonde or satellite occultation measurements have very limited coverage. Nadir measurements, such as those from the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet/2 (SBUV/2) instrument that provide wide latitudinal coverage, lack the vertical resolution needed to represent sharp vertical features. Limb measurements, such as those from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS), provide a finer vertical resolution. We show that assimilation of MIPAS data in addition to SBUV/2 data leads to better estimates of ozone in comparison with independent high quality satellite, aircraft, and ozone sonde measurements. Other modifications to the statistical analysis that have an impact on the lower stratospheric ozone will be mentioned: error covariance modeling and data selection. Direct and indirect impacts of transport and chemistry models will be discussed. Implications for multi-year analyses and short-tern prediction will be addressed.

Stajner, I.↗

The Effect of Errors in Snow Assimilation on Land Surface Modeling

The accurate portrayal of the hydrological cycle is extremely important in land surface modeling. Central to this effort is the treatment of snow, as errors in the representation of this quantity can impact practically all other modeled quantities through alterations in the water and energy balances. Although land surface model (LSM) simulations can benefit from the assimilation of snow cover and snow depth observations, they can be negatively impacted if such observations contain errors or if a model bias exists in the simulation of surface or soil temperatures. Both cases may lead to excessive melting or growth of snow packs, and to large alterations in both the energy and water balances. Such problems in the snow assimilation process, made evident by the repeated melting and replenishing of snow pack over significant areas of the United States, exists in the Eta Data Assimilation System and is a product of the EDAS system's direct insertion assimilation of snow data. Occurring on a 24 hour cycle, the repeated melting infuses the soil column with a large quantity of water that upsets the hydrological cycle. In an effort to quantify the impacts of such errors in snow assimilation on water and energy budgets, a series of Mosaic LSM simulations were performed over the 12 month period covering October 1998 to October 1999.

Cosgrove, Brian A.↗

Error detection and rectification in digital terrain models

Digital terrain models produced by computer correlation of stereo images are likely to contain occasional gross errors in terrain elevation. These errors typically result from having mismatched sub-areas of the two images, a problem which can occur for a variety of image- and terrain-related reasons. Such elevation errors produce undesirable effects when the models are further processed, and should be detected and corrected as early in the processing as possible. Algorithms have been developed to detect and correct errors in digital terrain models. These algorithms focus on the use of constraints on both the allowable slope and the allowable change in slope in local areas around each point. Relaxation-like techniques are employed in the iteration of the detection and correction phases to obtain best results.

Hannah, M. J.↗

Sensitivity Studies for Assimilated Ozone Profiles

An ozone data assimilation system at the NASA/Goddard Data Assimilation Office (DAO) produces three-dimensional global ozone fields. They are obtained by assimilating ozone retrieved from the Solar Backscatter UltraViolet/2 (SBUV/2) instrument and the Earth Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (EP TOMS) measurements into an off-line parameterized chemistry and transport model. In this talk we focus on the quality of lower stratospheric assimilated ozone profiles. Ozone in the lower stratosphere plays a key role in the forcing of climate. A biased ozone field in this region will adversely impact calculations of the stratosphere-troposphere exchange and, when used as a first guess in retrievals, the values determined from satellite observations. The SBUV/2 ozone data have a coarse vertical resolution with increased uncertainty below the ozone maximum, and TOMS provides only total ozone columns. Thus, the assimilated ozone profiles in the lower stratosphere are only weakly constrained by the incoming SBUV and TOMS data. Consequently, the assimilated ozone distribution should be sensitive to changes in inputs to the statistical analysis scheme. We investigate the sensitivity of assimilated ozone profiles to changes in a variety of system inputs: TOMS and SBUV/2 data selection, forecast and observations error covariance models, inclusion or omission of a parameterized chemistry model, and different versions of DAO assimilated wind fields used to drive the transport model. Comparisons of assimilated ozone fields with independent observations, primarily ozone sondes, are used to determine the impact of each of these changes.

Stajner, Ivanka↗

Explore Full Range of QSO/AGN Properties

The goal of the proposal is to perform ISO spectroscopic studies, including data analysis and modeling, of star formation regions using an ensemble of archival space-based data from the Infrared Space Observatory s Long Wavelength Spectrometer and Short Wavelength Spectrometer, but including as well some other spectroscopic databases. Four kinds of regions are considered in the studies: (1) disks around more evolved objects; (2) young, low or high mass pre-main sequence stars in star formation regions; (3) star formation in external, bright IR galaxies; and (4) the galactic center. One prime focus of the program is the OH lines in the far infrared. The program had the following goals: 1) Refine the data analysis of IS0 observations to obtain deeper and better SNR results on selected sources. The IS0 data itself underwent "pipeline 10" reductions in early 2001, and additional "hands-on data reduction packages" were supplied by the IS0 teams in 2001. The Fabry-Perot database is particularly sensitive to noise and slight calibration errors. 2) Model the atomic and molecular line shapes, in particular the OH lines, using revised monte- carlo techniques developed by the SWAS team at the Center for Astrophysics; 3) Attend scientific meetings and workshops; 4) Do E&PO activities related to infrared astrophysics and/or spectroscopy.

Oliversen, Ronald↗

ISO Key Project: Exploring The Full Range of Quasar/AGN Properties

While most of the work on this program has been completed, as previously reported, the portion of the program dealing with the sub topic of ISO LWS data analysis and reduction for the LWS Extragalactic Science Team and its leader, Dr. Howard Smith, is still active. This program in fact continues to generate results, and newly available computer modeling has extended the value of the datasets, As a result the team has requested and been granted an obtained a no-cost extension to this program, through December 31, 2003. The essence of the proposal is to perform ISO spectroscopic studies, including data analysis and modeling, of star formation regions using an ensemble of archival space-based data from the Infrared Space Observatory's Long Wavelength Spectrometer and Short Wavelength Spectrometer, but including as well some other spectroscopic data bases. Four kinds of regions are considered in the studies: (1) disks around more evolved objects; (2) young, low or high mass pre-main sequence stars in star formation regions; (3) star formation in external, bright IR galaxies; and (4) the galactic center. One prime focus of the program is the OH lines in the far infrared. The program has the following goals: (1) refine the data analysis of ISO observations, to obtain deeper and better SNR results on selected sources. The ISO data itself underwent "pipeline 10" reductions in early 2001, and additional "hands-on data reduction packages" were supplied by the ISO teams in 2001. The Fabry-Perot database in particularly sensitive to noise can slight calibration errors. (2) model the atomic and molecular line shapes, in particular the OH lines, using revised Monte-Carlo techniques developed by the SWAS team at the Center for Astrophysics; (3) attend scientific meetings and workshops; (4) do E&PO activities related to infrared astrophysics and/or spectroscopy.

Wilkes, Belinda↗

ISO Key Project: Exploring the Full Range of Quasar/Agn Properties

While most of the work on this program has been completed, as previously reported, the portion of the program dealing with the subtopic of ISO LWS data analysis and reduction for the LWS Extragalactic Science Team and its leader, Dr. Howard Smith, is still active. This program in fact continues to generate results, and newly available computer modeling has extended the value of the datasets. As a result the team requests a one-year no-cost extension to this program, through 31 December 2004. The essence of the proposal is to perform ISO spectroscopic studies, including data analysis and modeling, of star-formation regions using an ensemble of archival space-based data from the Infrared Space Observatory's Long Wavelength Spectrometer and Short Wavelength Spectrometer, but including as well some other spectroscopic databases. Four kinds of regions are considered in the studies: (1) disks around more evolved objects; (2) young, low or high mass pre-main sequence stars in star-formation regions; (3) star formation in external, bright IR galaxies; and (4) the galactic center. One prime focus of the program is the OH lines in the far infrared. The program has the following goals: 1) Refine the data analysis of ISO observations to obtain deeper and better SNR results on selected sources. The ISO data itself underwent 'pipeline 10' reductions in early 2001, and additional 'hands-on data reduction packages' were supplied by the ISO teams in 2001. The Fabry-Perot database is particularly sensitive to noise and slight calibration errors; 2) Model the atomic and molecular line shapes, in particular the OH lines, using revised Monte-Carlo techniques developed by the SWAS team at the Center for Astrophysics; 3) Attend scientific meetings and workshops; 4) Perform E&PO activities related to infrared astrophysics and/or spectroscopy.

Wilkes, Belinda↗

Tools for Analysis and Visualization of Large Time-Varying CFD Data Sets

In the second year, we continued to built upon and improve our scanline-based direct volume renderer that we developed in the first year of this grant. This extremely general rendering approach can handle regular or irregular grids, including overlapping multiple grids, and polygon mesh surfaces. It runs in parallel on multi-processors. It can also be used in conjunction with a k-d tree hierarchy, where approximate models and error terms are stored in the nodes of the tree, and approximate fast renderings can be created. We have extended our software to handle time-varying data where the data changes but the grid does not. We are now working on extending it to handle more general time-varying data. We have also developed a new extension of our direct volume renderer that uses automatic decimation of the 3D grid, as opposed to an explicit hierarchy. We explored this alternative approach as being more appropriate for very large data sets, where the extra expense of a tree may be unacceptable. We also describe a new approach to direct volume rendering using hardware 3D textures and incorporates lighting effects. Volume rendering using hardware 3D textures is extremely fast, and machines capable of using this technique are becoming more moderately priced. While this technique, at present, is limited to use with regular grids, we are pursuing possible algorithms extending the approach to more general grid types. We have also begun to explore a new method for determining the accuracy of approximate models based on the light field method described at ACM SIGGRAPH '96. In our initial implementation, we automatically image the volume from 32 equi-distant positions on the surface of an enclosing tessellated sphere. We then calculate differences between these images under different conditions of volume approximation or decimation. We are studying whether this will give a quantitative measure of the effects of approximation. We have created new tools for exploring the differences between images produced by various rendering methods. Images created by our software can be stored in the SGI RGB format. Our idtools software reads in pair of images and compares them using various metrics. The differences of the images using the RGB, HSV, and HSL color models can be calculated and shown. We can also calculate the auto-correlation function and the Fourier transform of the image and image differences. We will explore how these image differences compare in order to find useful metrics for quantifying the success of various visualization approaches. In general, progress was consistent with our research plan for the second year of the grant.

Wilhelms, Jane↗

Characterization of Transport Errors in Chemical Forecasts from a Global Tropospheric Chemical Transport Model

We propose a new methodology to characterize errors in the representation of transport processes in chemical transport models. We constrain the evaluation of a global three-dimensional chemical transport model (GEOS-CHEM) with an extended dataset of carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations obtained during the Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) aircraft campaign. The TRACEP mission took place over the western Pacific, a region frequently impacted by continental outflow associated with different synoptic-scale weather systems (such as cold fronts) and deep convection, and thus provides a valuable dataset. for our analysis. Model simulations using both forecast and assimilated meteorology are examined. Background CO concentrations are computed as a function of latitude and altitude and subsequently subtracted from both the observed and the model datasets to focus on the ability of the model to simulate variability on a synoptic scale. Different sampling strategies (i.e., spatial displacement and smoothing) are applied along the flight tracks to search for systematic model biases. Statistical quantities such as correlation coefficient and centered root-mean-square difference are computed between the simulated and the observed fields and are further inter-compared using Taylor diagrams. We find no systematic bias in the model for the TRACE-P region when we consider the entire dataset (i.e., from the surface to 12 km ). This result indicates that the transport error in our model is globally unbiased, which has important implications for using the model to conduct inverse modeling studies. Using the First-Look assimilated meteorology only provides little improvement of the correlation, in comparison with the forecast meteorology. These general statements can be refined when the entire dataset is divided into different vertical domains, i.e., the lower troposphere (less than 2 km), the middle troposphere (2-6 km), and the upper troposphere (greater than 6 km). The best agreement between the observations and the model is found in the lower and middle troposphere. Downward displacements in the lower troposphere provide a better fit with the observed value, which could indicate a problem in the representation of boundary layer height in the model. Significant improvement is also found for downward and southward displacements in the upper troposphere. There are several potential sources of errors in our simulation of the continental outflow in the upper troposphere which could lead to such biases, including the location and/or the strength of deep convective cells as well as that of wildfires in Southeast Asia.

Bey, I.↗

Mariner/Jupiter/Saturn navigation in the presence of massive planetary satellites

Orbit determination accuracies attainable during a Mariner/Jupiter/Saturn encounter have been established by means of covariance analyses. Advanced earth-based multistation radiometric data, optical data consisting of star/satellite pictures provided by a narrow-angle TV camera on board the spacecraft, and batch sequential filtering methods were employed. An evaluation of sequential filter sensitivities to errors in modeling small nongravitational spacecraft accelerations is presented. Selected covariances developed in the orbit determination analysis are used in an investigation of the trajectory correction costs associated with a close Ganymede encounter. The 99 percentile Delta V contours in the Ganymede aiming plane are obtained for satellite encounters before or after Jupiter closed approach, and the sources of the dominant contributions to the Delta V costs are identified.

Hildebrand, C. E.↗

Cost optimization of spacecraft test levels

Common to all nondestructive type testing of hardware that provides the necessary confidence in the design is the question regarding the proper magnitude of the test level. The objective of this investigation was to study the possibility of establishing cost optimized test levels of a rather general nature. This investigation was based on studying the influence of test level on a cost of error cost model that reflects the adverse effects of 'undertesting' and 'overtesting'. For the assumed conditions of normal distribution for the random variables and a protoflight spacecraft case, the results indicated that the limits for an optimum test factor can range between slightly less than 1.0 to slightly more than 1.5.

Young, J. P.↗

Kalman filter estimation of human pilot-model parameters

The parameters of a human pilot-model transfer function are estimated by applying the extended Kalman filter to the corresponding retarded differential-difference equations in the time domain. Use of computer-generated data indicates that most of the parameters, including the implicit time delay, may be reasonably estimated in this way. When applied to two sets of experimental data obtained from a closed-loop tracking task performed by a human, the Kalman filter generated diverging residuals for one of the measurement types, apparently because of model assumption errors. Application of a modified adaptive technique was found to overcome the divergence and to produce reasonable estimates of most of the parameters.

Schiess, J. R.↗