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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 883 records · Page 49
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Initial study of notch sensitivity of Grade 91 using mechanisms motivated crystal plasticity finite element method

This report describes the development of a crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM) model for the multiaxial creep rupture of Grade 91 steel. The report demonstrates that core blocks in heat pipe reactor designs will see significantly different stress states than those typically found in conventional advanced reactor components where structures can often be represented as thin-walled pressure vessels. Current design practice uses effective stress measures calibrated to biaxial creep test data to account for the effect of stress multiaxiality on rupture life. Because these models rely on biaxial data they may not be accurate for the truly 3D, triaxial states found in heat pipe microreactor core blocks. A physically-based model, like the CPFEM model developed here, may be able to more accurately represent creep rupture under triaxial stresses when compared to conventional, empirical methods. This report describes the development, implementation, and validation of such a model and then applies the model to predict the effect of stress triaxiality on rupture in Grade 91 steel. The model results are used to assess the effective stress measures currently used in high temperature design codes and makes specific recommendations on improving these effective stresses to better account for the effect of 3D stress states on rupture in Grade 91. The validation and then implementation of these recommendations in design codes and standards could lead to safer, more effective heat pipe microreactor core block designs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Validation of Material Models For Automotive Carbon Fiber Composite Structures Via Physical And Crash Testing (VMM Composites Project)

As automotive fuel economy requirements increase, the push for reducing overall vehicle weight will likely include the consideration of materials that have not previously been part of mainstream vehicle design and manufacturing, including carbon fiber composites. Vehicle manufacturers currently rely on computer-aided engineering (CAE) methods as part of the design and development process, so going forward, the ability to accurately and predictably model carbon fiber composites will be necessary. If composites are to be used for structural components, this need applies to both, crash and quasi-static modeling. This final report covers the results of a five-year, $6.89M, 50% cost-shared research project between Department of Energy (DOE) and the US Advanced Materials Partnership (USAMP) under Cooperative Agreement DE-EE-0005661 known as “Validation of Material Models for Automotive Carbon Fiber Composite Structures Via Physical and Crash Testing (VMM).” The objective of the VMM Composites Project was to validate and assess the ability of physics-based material models to predict crash performance of automotive primary load-carrying carbon fiber composite structures. Simulation material models that were evaluated included micro-mechanics based meso-scale models developed by the University of Michigan (UM) and micro-plane models by Northwestern University (NWU) under previous collaborations with the DOE and Automotive Composites Consortium/USAMP, as well as five commercial crash codes: LS-DYNA, RADIOSS, VPS/PAM-CRASH, Abaqus, and GENOA-MCQ. CAE predictions obtained from seven organizations were compared with experimental results from quasi-static testing and dynamic crash testing of a thermoset carbon fiber composite front-bumper and crush-can (FBCC) system gathered under multiple loading conditions. This FBCC design was developed to demonstrate progressive crush, virtual simulation, tooling, fabrication, assembly, non-destructive evaluation and crash testing advances in order to assess the correlation of the predicted results to the physical tests. The FBCC was developed to meet a goal of 30-35% mass reduction while aiming for equivalent energy absorption as a steel component for which baseline experimental results were obtained from testing in the same crash modes. The project also evaluated crash performance of thermoplastic composite structures fabricated from commercial prepreg materials and low cost carbon fiber sourced from Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The VMM Project determined that no set of predictions from a CAE supplier were found to be universally accurate among all the six crash modes evaluated. In general, crash modes that were most dependent on the properties of the prepreg were more accurate than those that were dependent on the behavior of the joints. The project found that current CAE modeling methods or best practices for carbon fiber composites have not achieved standardization, and accuracy of CAE is highly reliant on the experience of its users. Coupon tests alone are not sufficient to develop an accurate material model, but it is necessary to bridge the gap between the coupon data and performance of the actual structure with a series of subcomponent level tests. Much of the unreliability of the predictions can be attributed to shortcomings in our ability to mathematically link the effects of manufacturing and material variability into the material models. This is a subject of ongoing research in the industry. The final report is organized by key technical tasks to describe how the validation project developed, modeled and compared crash data obtained on the composite FBCC to the multiple sets of CAE predictions. Highlights of the report include a discussion of the quantitative comparison between predictions and experimental data, as well as an in-depth discussion of remaining technological gaps that exist in the industry, which are intended to spur innovations and improvements in CAE technology.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development and Evaluation of Ensemble Learning-based Environmental Methane Detection and Intensity Prediction Models

The environmental impacts of global warming driven by methane (CH 4 ) emissions have catalyzed significant research initiatives in developing novel technologies that enable proactive and rapid detection of CH 4 . Several data-driven machine learning (ML) models were tested to determine how well they identified fugitive CH 4 and its related intensity in the affected areas. Various meteorological characteristics, including wind speed, temperature, pressure, relative humidity, water vapor, and heat flux, were included in the simulation. We used the ensemble learning method to determine the best-performing weighted ensemble ML models built upon several weaker lower-layer ML models to (i) detect the presence of CH 4 as a classification problem and (ii) predict the intensity of CH 4 as a regression problem. The classification model performance for CH 4 detection was evaluated using accuracy, F1 score, Matthew’s Correlation Coefficient (MCC), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC ROC), with the top-performing model being 97.2%, 0.972, 0.945 and 0.995, respectively. The R 2 score was used to evaluate the regression model performance for CH 4 intensity prediction, with the R 2 score of the best-performing model being 0.858. The ML models developed in this study for fugitive CH 4 detection and intensity prediction can be used with fixed environmental sensors deployed on the ground or with sensors mounted on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for mobile detection.

Majumder, Reek↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating building occupancy: a machine learning system for day, night, and episodic events

Building occupancy research increasingly emphasizes understanding the social and physical dynamics of how people occupy space. Opportunities in the open source domain including social media, Volunteered Geographic Information, crowdsourcing, and sensor data have proliferated, resulting in the exploration of building occupancy dynamics at varying spatiotemporal scales. At Oak Ridge National Laboratory, research into building occupancies through the development of a global learning framework that accommodates exploitation of open source authoritative sources, including governmental census and surveys, journal articles, real estate databases, and more, to report national and subnational building occupancies across the world continues through the Population Density Tables (PDT) project. This probabilistic learning system accommodates expert knowledge, experience, and open-source data to capture local, socioeconomic, and cultural information about human activity. It does so through a systematic process of data harmonization techniques in the development of observation models for over 50 building types to dynamically update baseline estimates and report probabilistic diurnal and episodic building occupancy estimates. This discussion will explore how PDT is implemented at scale and expanded based on the development of observation model classes and will explain how to interpret and spatially apply the reported probability occupancy estimates and uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Method to account for natural fracture induced elastic anisotropy in geomechanical characterization of shale gas reservoirs

Shale has been usually recognized as a transverse isotropic (TI) medium in conventional geomechanical log interpretation due to its laminated nature. However, when natural fractures exist in the shale rock, additional elastic anisotropy is introduced, converting laminated Shale to an orthorhombic (OB) medium. Previous studies illustrate that neglecting the natural fracture induced anisotropy in shale geomechanical log interpretation could lead to inaccurate evaluations of elastic moduli and in-situ stresses. In this paper, a new method is developed to account for the natural fracture induced anisotropy in geomechanical log interpretation based upon the TI acoustic model developed by the author and a characterization technique of elastic wave anisotropy (Sayers, 1991). The new OB model incorporates the four acoustic log data inputs and five modeling constraints in a nonlinear optimization algorithm to solve for the nine independent stiffness coefficients of an OB rock, and further to solve for the geomechanical properties and in-situ stress profiles in an OB formation. The new method was validated with a Marcellus Gas Shale field case. Both the new OB model and the conventional TI model were applied to interpret the minimum horizontal stress profile for the same formation. By comparing the results, the OB model is more robust than the TI from two aspects. First, the average stress magnitude predicted by the OB model is closer to the one measured by the Diagnostic Fracture Injection Test (DFIT). Second, the OB model predicts a more obvious stress barrier between the lower Marcellus and upper Onondaga Limestone than the TI model does. Finally, the predicted stress barrier is consistent with the observation of the microseismic events of a horizontal well drilled and completed nearby, which reveals that no hydraulic fracture propagates downward through the bottom boundary of Marcellus Shale into the underlying Onondaga Limestone.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Stochastic Modeling of Overtime Occupancy and Its Application in Building Energy Simulation and Calibration

Overtime is a common phenomenon around the world. Overtime drives both internal heat gains from occupants, lighting and plug-loads, and HVAC operation during overtime periods. Overtime leads to longer occupancy hours and extended operation of building services systems beyond normal working hours, thus overtime impacts total building energy use. Current literature lacks methods to model overtime occupancy because overtime is stochastic in nature and varies by individual occupants and by time. To address this gap in the literature, this study aims to develop a new stochastic model based on the statistical analysis of measured overtime occupancy data from an office building. A binomial distribution is used to represent the total number of occupants working overtime, while an exponential distribution is used to represent the duration of overtime periods. The overtime model is used to generate overtime occupancy schedules as an input to the energy model of a second office building. The measured and simulated cooling energy use during the overtime period is compared in order to validate the overtime model. A hybrid approach to energy model calibration is proposed and tested, which combines ASHRAE Guideline 14 for the calibration of the energy model during normal working hours, and a proposed KS test for the calibration of the energy model during overtime. The developed stochastic overtime model and the hybrid calibration approach can be used in building energy simulations to improve the accuracy of results, and better understand the characteristics of overtime in office buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Unexpected Thermomechanical Behavior of Off-Stoichiometry Epoxy/Amine Materials

Recent studies on off-stoichiometric thermosets reveal unique viscoelastic behavior derived from increased free volume and physical interactions between chain ends. To understand structural characteristics arising from cure and its effect on properties, we developed a Monte Carlo model based on step-growth polymerization. Our model accurately predicted structure–property trends for a two-component system of EPON 828 (EPON) and ethylenediamine. A second epoxy monomer, D.E.R. 732 (DER), was investigated to modulate T g . Binary mixtures of EPON and DER in off-stoichiometric, amine-rich formulations resulted in nonlinear evolution of thermomechanical properties with respect to initial formulation stoichiometry. Modifying our model with kinetic parameters allowing for differential epoxide/amine reaction kinetics only partially accounted for trends in T g , suggesting that spatiotemporal contributions-not captured by our model-were significant determinants of material properties compared to polymer architecture for three-component systems. Here these findings underpin the importance of spatial awareness in modeling to inform the development of dynamic thermosets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2013

Reduced-Order Model for the Geochemical Impacts of Carbon Dioxide, Brine and Trace Metal Leakage into an Unconfined, Oxidizing Carbonate Aquifer (V.2.1)

The National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) consists of 5 U.S DOE national laboratories collaborating to develop a framework for predicting the risks associated with carbon sequestration. The approach taken by NRAP is to divide the system into components, including injection target reservoirs, wellbores, natural pathways including faults and fractures, groundwater and the atmosphere. Next, develop a detailed, physics and chemistry-based model of each component. Using the results of the detailed models, develop efficient, simplified models, termed reduced order models (ROM) for each component. Finally, integrate the component ROMs into a system model that calculates risk profiles for the site. This report details the development of the Groundwater Geochemistry ROM for the Edwards Aquifer at PNNL. The Groundwater Geochemistry ROM for the Edwards Aquifer uses a Wellbore Leakage ROM developed at LANL as input. The detailed model, using the STOMP simulator, covers a 5 x 8-km area of the Edwards Aquifer near San Antonio, Texas. The model includes heterogeneous hydraulic properties, and equilibrium, kinetic and sorption reactions between groundwater, leaked CO 2 gas, brine, and the aquifer carbonate and clay minerals. Latin Hypercube sampling was used to generate 1024 samples of input parameters. For each of these input samples, the STOMP simulator was used to predict the flux of CO 2 to the atmosphere, and the volume, length and width of the aquifer where pH was less than the MCL standard, and TDS, arsenic, cadmium and lead exceeded MCL standards. In order to decouple the Wellbore Leakage ROM from the Groundwater Geochemistry ROM, the response surface was transformed to replace Wellbore Leakage ROM input parameters with instantaneous and cumulative CO 2 and brine leakage rates. The most sensitive parameters proved to be the CO 2 and brine leakage rates from the well, with equilibrium coefficients for calcite and dolomite, as well as the number of illite and kaolinite sorption sites proving to be of secondary importance. The Groundwater Geochemistry ROM was developed using nonlinear regression to fit the response surface with a quadratic polynomial. The goodness of fit was excellent for the CO 2 flux to the atmosphere, and very good for predicting the volumes of groundwater exceeding the pH, TDS, As, Cd and Pb threshold values.

carbon sequestration↗
DOE OSTI2021

Heterogeneous creep deformation behavior of functionally graded transition joints (GTJs)

Dissimilar metal welds (DMWs) made between ferritic steels and austenitic alloys are used extensively in high-temperature power plant components. These DMWs experience premature creep failure in the ferritic steel’s heat affected zone (HAZ), close to the weld interface. Steep variations in microstructure and chemical composition across the dissimilar weld interface have been the contributing factors for the failure. Graded transition joints (GTJs), developed by functionally grading the chemical composition in layers, have been proposed as potential candidates to replace DMWs. In this research, GTJ coupons were fabricated between 2.25Cr-1Mo steel and Alloy 800H base material using two filler materials: (i) Inconel 82 and (ii) P87. These samples were aged at 600°C for 2000h to accelerate high-temperature microstructural evolution seen in service conditions, before subjecting them to short-term (~1 month) creep tests. Surface strains were measured using digital image correlation (DIC) technique to extract creep strain rates at different locations within GTJs. Both the GTJs exhibited heterogeneous creep strain distribution. Creep strain accumulated in the FGHAZ of 2.25Cr-1Mo steel, similar to type IV failure associated with Cr-Mo steel weldments. Microstructure based creep model framework was developed to describe the discrete creep strain rates observed in various 2.25Cr-1Mo steel regions of GTJs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2011

Extraction of Hydrological Proximity Measures from DEMs using Parallel Processing

Land surface topography is one of the most important terrain properties which impact hydrological, geomorphological, and ecological processes active on a landscape. In our previous efforts to develop a soil depth model based upon topographic and land cover variables, we extracted a set of hydrological proximity measures (HPMs) from a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) as potential explanatory variables for soil depth. These HPMs may also have other, more general modeling applicability in hydrology, geomorphology and ecology, and so are described here from a general perspective. The HPMs we derived are variations of the distance up to ridge points (cells with no incoming flow) and variations of the distance down to stream points (cells with a contributing area greater than a threshold), following the flow path. These HPMs were computed using the D-infinity flow model that apportions flow between adjacent neighbors based on the direction of steepest downward slope on the eight triangular facets constructed in a 3 x 3 grid cell window using the center cell and each pair of adjacent neighboring grid cells in turn. The D-infinity model typically results in multiple flow paths between 2 points on the topography, with the result that distances may be computed as the minimum, maximum or average of the individual flow paths. In addition, each of the HPMs, are calculated vertically, horizontally, and along the land surface. Previously, these HPMs were calculated using recursive serial algorithms which suffered from stack overflow problems when used to process large datasets, limiting the size of DEMs that could be analyzed using that method to approximately 7000 x 7000 cells. To overcome this limitation, we developed a message passing interface (MPI) parallel approach for calculating these HPMs. The parallel algorithms of the HPMs spatially partition the input grid into stripes which are each assigned to separate processes for computation. Each of those processes then uses a queue data structure to order the processing of cells so that each cell is visited only once and the cross-process communications that are a standard part of MPI are handled in an efficient manner. This parallel approach allows analysis of much larger DEMs as compared to the serial recursive algorithms. In this paper, we present the definitions of the HPMs, the serial and parallel algorithms used in their extraction and their potential applications in hydrology, geomorphology and ecology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microstructural Engineering and Accelerated Test Method Development to Achieve Low Cost, High Performance Solutions for Hydrogen Storage and Delivery

This project made advancements in developing lower cost steel alloys with novel microstructural design for use in hydrogen refueling infrastructure such as storage, compressors, and dispensing components, and utilizing accelerated test methods to efficiently evaluate variations in alloy and microstructure design. The project specifically sought to design alloys with lower nickel contents to reduce alloy cost, which was accomplished through substituting manganese for nickel along with other alloy additions to control deformation characteristics known to be important for hydrogen embrittlement resistance. Through Mn substitutions for nickel, austenitic and duplex austenite-ferrite steels were successfully developed with lower cost than currently available commercial stainless steel products that are employed for hydrogen refueling infrastructure. The steels were processed to achieve comparable strength and toughness in hydrogen environments as the commercially available steels containing high Ni contents. To evaluate mechanical performance in hydrogen, a testing methodology was employed to compare ubiquitous laboratory testing using electrochemical hydrogen charging in a liquid electrolyte to less accessible high pressure gaseous testing. While the application of these steels is in high pressure gaseous environments, the electrochemical hydrogen charging tests produced comparable results. Additionally, the Los Alamos Neutron Scatting Center enabled characterization of deformation mechanisms of the steel alloys in the presence of hydrogen, which has been associated with steel alloy characteristics associated with hydrogen embrittlement. Finally, a fracture mechanics based test bed model was developed to predict the influence of hydrogen gas pressure and fatigue conditions on fatigue lifetimes of pressure vessel steels. Together, these developments can be employed to enable lower cost hydrogen fueling infrastructure and more reliable prediction of steel alloy components in hydrogen service conditions. In particular, the newly alloys have the potential to replace stainless steels, having demonstrated comparable performance at substantially reduced cost.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Robustness of the Ensemble Score Filter to the Type of Assimilated Observation Networks

Recent advances in data assimilation (DA) have focused on developing more flexible approaches that can better accommodate nonlinearities in models and observations. However, it remains unclear how the performance of these advanced methods depends on the observation network characteristics. In this study, we present initial experiments with the surface quasi‐geostrophic model, in which we compare a recently developed ensemble filter using score‐based diffusion models with the standard Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF). Our results show that the analysis solutions respond differently to the number, spatial distribution, and nonlinear fraction of assimilated observations. We also find notable changes in the multiscale characteristics of the analysis errors. Given that standard DA techniques will eventually be replaced by more advanced methods, we hope this study sets the ground for future efforts to reassess the value of Earth observing systems in the context of newly emerging algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2013

Gradient Plasticity Model and its Implementation into MARMOT

The influence of strain gradient on deformation behavior of nuclear structural materials, such as body-centered cubic (bcc) iron alloys has been investigated. We have developed and implemented a dislocation based strain gradient crystal plasticity material model. A mesoscale crystal plasticity model for inelastic deformation of metallic material, bcc steel, has been developed and implemented numerically. Continuum Dislocation Dynamics (CDD) with a novel constitutive law based on dislocation density evolution mechanisms was developed to investigate the deformation behaviors of single crystals, as well as polycrystalline materials by coupling CDD and crystal plasticity (CP). The dislocation density evolution law in this model is mechanism-based, with parameters measured from experiments or simulated with lower-length scale models, not an empirical law with parameters back-fitted from the flow curves.

continuous dislocation dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2016

TH-CD-209-09: Quickly Identifying Good Candidates for Proton Therapy From Geometric Considerations

Purpose: We developed a knowledge-based model that can predict the patient-specific benefits of proton therapy based upon geometric considerations. The model could also aid patient selection in model-based clinical trials or help justify clinical decisions to insurance companies. Methods: The knowledge-based method trains a model upon existing proton treatment plans, exploiting correlations between dose and distance-to-target. Each OAR is split into concentric subvolumes surrounding the target volume, and a skew-normal PDF is fit to the dose distribution found within each shell. The model learns from shared trends in how the best-fit skew-normal parameters depend upon distance-to-target. It can then predict feasible OAR DVHs for a new patient (without a proton plan) based upon their geometry. The expected benefits of proton therapy are assessed by comparing the predicted DVHs to those of an IMRT plan, using a metric such as the equivalent uniform dose (EUD). Results: A model was trained for clival chordoma, owing to its geometric complexity and the multitude of nearby OARs. The model was trained using 20 patients and validated with a further 20 patients, and considers several different OARs. The predicted EUD was in good agreement with that of the actual proton plan. The coefficient of determination (R-squared) was 85% overall, 92% for cochleas, 80% for optic chiasm and 79% for spinal cord. The model exhibited no signs of bias or overfitting. When compared to an IMRT plan, the model could classify whether a patient will experience a gain or a loss with an accuracy between 75% and 95%, depending upon the OAR. Conclusion: We developed a model that can quickly and accurately predict the patient-specific benefits of proton therapy in clival chordoma patients, though models could be trained for other tumor sites. This work is funded by National Cancer Institute grant U19 CA 021239.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Calcium Phosphate Constraints in HLW Glasses: Phosphate Liquidus Model

About 50 million gallons of high-level mixed waste is currently stored in underground tanks at the United States Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Hanford site in the State of Washington. The Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) will provide DOE’s Office of River Protection (ORP) with a means of treating this waste by vitrification for subsequent disposal. The tank waste will be separated into low- and high-activity waste fractions, which will then be vitrified respectively into Immobilized Low Activity Waste (ILAW) and Immobilized High Level Waste (IHLW) products. The ILAW product will be disposed in an engineered facility on the Hanford site while the IHLW product is designed for acceptance into a national geological disposal facility for high-level nuclear waste. The ILAW and IHLW products must meet a variety of requirements before they can be accepted for disposal. Glass property-composition models will be used to control the vitrification process at the WTP to ensure that the glass meets product quality and processability requirements. The quality and the validity ranges of the property-composition models and the supporting database will greatly influence waste treatment operations, including the waste loading that is achievable in the glass for each waste composition. The current baseline models for operation of the WTP were developed under the Bechtel National, Inc. (BNI) WTP contract. These models were based on LAW and HLW glass property data over a range of compositions that was guided primarily by the WTP contract and the set of tanks specified therein. The HLW testing was directed towards waste streams from the then-planned early feed tanks for the WTP (i.e., AZ-101, AZ-102, C-106/AY-102, and C-104/AY-101). These wastes are high in iron (AZ-101, AZ-102, and C-106/AY-102) or thorium (C-104/AY-101). While the baseline models may be adequate for commissioning of the facility and processing of the specified tanks, refinements and extensions or augmentations of these models will be required to process the balance of the tank waste inventory. The overall mission of the WTP will require the immobilization of tank waste compositions that are variously dominated by mixtures of aluminum, chromium, bismuth, iron, phosphorous, zirconium, and sulfur compounds as waste-loading-limiting components. Further, the WTP contract includes minimum waste loading requirements that are generally rather modest while loadings significantly higher than those in the current baseline are likely achievable. In order to achieve these higher waste loadings and to expand the applicable composition regions, new models will be needed to support the optimized operation of the WTP. Since the development of the baseline WTP models, ORP directed a program of work at the Vitreous State Laboratory (VSL) to examine various approaches for optimization of the performance of the WTP, including increasing the waste loadings in the LAW and HLW glass products. That work involved HLW rich in Al, Al+Na, Cr, Bi, S, Zr, Sr, P and Fe, in contrast to old baseline models that were based mostly on HLW tanks that were high in Fe, with one other that was also high in Th. Glass property data collected under the ORP program were compiled and combined with data collected to develop the WTP models. The combined databases have been used to update pre-existing HLW composition models or to develop new models for properties such as Product Consistency Test (PCT) responses, spinel crystallization (one-percent crystal fraction temperature, T 1% ), melt viscosity, melt electrical conductivity, nepheline formation upon slow cooling (i.e., Canister Centerline Cooling [CCC]), and Toxicity Characteristic Leach Procedure (TCLP) Cd response. While spinel is typically the most commonly occurring phase in HLW glasses, other phases can be limiting depending on the waste and glass composition. For example, various phosphate phases can become important as the phosphorus content increases. Lithium phosphate crystallization can impact PCT releases of HLW glasses, while calcium phosphate phases forming in the cold-cap can deleteriously impact feed processing in the melter. At present, however, no models exist that relate glass composition and crystallization of phosphate phases in general and calcium phosphate in particular. The present work was therefore directed towards the initial development of such models. Future work may be directed at studying amorphous phase separation in high phosphate HLW glasses. Within the River Protection Project, feed compositions are projected using the Hanford Tank Waste Operations Simulator (HTWOS), a dynamic computer model that tracks the waste through storage, retrieval, feed staging, and treatment processes. A review of the HTWOS data shows that WTP will process 4106 batches of HLW glass for the overall mission (System Plan Rev. 6, ORP-11242), each with its own waste feed and glass composition. Some of the projected HTWOS feed batches are expected to have relatively high concentrations of phosphorous compared to typical HLW streams. In the 4106 batches of HLW for the overall WTP mission P 2 O 5 varies from 0.59 wt% to 13.00 wt%, with 95 batches containing at least 10 wt% P 2 O 5 . Occurrences of phosphate crystals have commonly been noted in glasses with high bismuth and phosphorus contents. In addition, recently collected data from a set of statistically designed HLW matrix glasses prepared and characterized to support enhancement of the HLW glass property-composition models identified apatite in a number of glass samples. However, the current HLW model for crystallization (one-percent crystal fraction temperature) is applicable only to spinel crystallization in glasses. Previous projections of waste loadings and glass volume (such as those in System Plan Rev. 6, ORP-11242) have used preliminary constraints for calcium phosphate crystallization that are based on the limited available data. Additional data and improved constraints or, preferably, models that relate glass composition to crystallization of phosphate-containing phases, are therefore needed to support HLW vitrification at the WTP. The present study focuses on the development of such a model based on data from previously characterized glasses and a set of newly fabricated glasses.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2014

Real-time global flood estimation using satellite-based precipitation and a coupled land surface and routing model

A widely used land surface model, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, is coupled with a newly developed hierarchical dominant river tracing-based runoff-routing model to form the Dominant river tracing-Routing Integrated with VIC Environment (DRIVE) model, which serves as the new core of the real-time Global Flood Monitoring System (GFMS). The GFMS uses real-time satellite-based precipitation to derive flood monitoring parameters for the latitude band 50°N–50°S at relatively high spatial (~12 km) and temporal (3 hourly) resolution. Examples of model results for recent flood events are computed using the real-time GFMS (http://flood.umd.edu). To evaluate the accuracy of the new GFMS, the DRIVE model is run retrospectively for 15 years using both research-quality and real-time satellite precipitation products. Evaluation results are slightly better for the research-quality input and significantly better for longer duration events (3 day events versus 1 day events). Basins with fewer dams tend to provide lower false alarm ratios. For events longer than three days in areas with few dams, the probability of detection is ~0.9 and the false alarm ratio is ~0.6. In general, these statistical results are better than those of the previous system. Streamflow was evaluated at 1121 river gauges across the quasi-global domain. Validation using real-time precipitation across the tropics (30°S–30°N) gives positive daily Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficients for 107 out of 375 (28%) stations with a mean of 0.19 and 51% of the same gauges at monthly scale with a mean of 0.33. Finally, there were poorer results in higher latitudes, probably due to larger errors in the satellite precipitation input.

flood modelling, flood detection, VIC, DRT, DRIVE,↗
DOE OSTI2025

Global Methane Budget 2000–2020

Abstract. Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. CH4 is the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing after carbon dioxide (CO2), and both emissions and atmospheric concentrations of CH4 have continued to increase since 2007 after a temporary pause. The relative importance of CH4 emissions compared to those of CO2 for temperature change is related to its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger radiative effect, and acceleration in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in quantifying the factors responsible for the observed atmospheric growth rate arise from diverse, geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the uncertain magnitude and temporal change in the destruction of CH4 by short-lived and highly variable hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to improve, synthesise, and update the global CH4 budget regularly and to stimulate new research on the methane cycle. Following Saunois et al. (2016, 2020), we present here the third version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal CH4 budget, integrating results of top-down CH4 emission estimates (based on in situ and Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) atmospheric observations and an ensemble of atmospheric inverse-model results) and bottom-up estimates (based on process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). We present a budget for the most recent 2010–2019 calendar decade (the latest period for which full data sets are available), for the previous decade of 2000–2009 and for the year 2020. The revision of the bottom-up budget in this 2025 edition benefits from important progress in estimating inland freshwater emissions, with better counting of emissions from lakes and ponds, reservoirs, and streams and rivers. This budget also reduces double counting across freshwater and wetland emissions and, for the first time, includes an estimate of the potential double counting that may exist (average of 23 Tg CH4 yr−1). Bottom-up approaches show that the combined wetland and inland freshwater emissions average 248 [159–369] Tg CH4 yr−1 for the 2010–2019 decade. Natural fluxes are perturbed by human activities through climate, eutrophication, and land use. In this budget, we also estimate, for the first time, this anthropogenic component contributing to wetland and inland freshwater emissions. Newly available gridded products also allowed us to derive an almost complete latitudinal and regional budget based on bottom-up approaches. For the 2010–2019 decade, global CH4 emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (top-down) to be 575 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 553–586, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this amount, 369 Tg CH4 yr−1 or ∼ 65 % is attributed to direct anthropogenic sources in the fossil, agriculture, and waste and anthropogenic biomass burning (range 350–391 Tg CH4 yr−1 or 63 %–68 %). For the 2000–2009 period, the atmospheric inversions give a slightly lower total emission than for 2010–2019, by 32 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 9–40). The 2020 emission rate is the highest of the period and reaches 608 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 581–627), which is 12 % higher than the average emissions in the 2000s. Since 2012, global direct anthropogenic CH4 emission trends have been tracking scenarios that assume no or minimal climate mitigation policies proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (shared socio-economic pathways SSP5 and SSP3). Bottom-up methods suggest 16 % (94 Tg CH4 yr−1) larger global emissions (669 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 512–849) than top-down inversion methods for the 2010–2019 period. The discrepancy between the bottom-up and the top-down budgets has been greatly reduced compared to the previous differences (167 and 156 Tg CH4 yr−1 in Saunois et al. (2016, 2020) respectively), and for the first time uncertainties in bottom-up and top-down budgets overlap. Although differences have been reduced between inversions and bottom-up, the most important source of uncertainty in the global CH4 budget is still attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and inland freshwaters. The tropospheric loss of methane, as the main contributor to methane lifetime, has been estimated at 563 [510–663] Tg CH4 yr−1 based on chemistry–climate models. These values are slightly larger than for 2000–2009 due to the impact of the rise in atmospheric methane and remaining large uncertainty (∼ 25 %). The total sink of CH4 is estimated at 633 [507–796] Tg CH4 yr−1 by the bottom-up approaches and at 554 [550–567] Tg CH4 yr−1 by top-down approaches. However, most of the top-down models use the same OH distribution, which introduces less uncertainty to the global budget than is likely justified. For 2010–2019, agriculture and waste contributed an estimated 228 [213–242] Tg CH4 yr−1 in the top-down budget and 211 [195–231] Tg CH4 yr−1 in the bottom-up budget. Fossil fuel emissions contributed 115 [100–124] Tg CH4 yr−1 in the top-down budget and 120 [117–125] Tg CH4 yr−1 in the bottom-up budget. Biomass and biofuel burning contributed 27 [26–27] Tg CH4 yr−1 in the top-down budget and 28 [21–39] Tg CH4 yr−1 in the bottom-up budget. We identify five major priorities for improving the CH4 budget: (i) producing a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting CH4 based on a robust classification of different types of emitting ecosystems; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of CH4 observations at local (e.g. FLUXNET-CH4 measurements, urban-scale monitoring, satellite imagery with pointing capabilities) to regional scales (surface networks and global remote sensing measurements from satellites) to constrain both bottom-up models and atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) integration of 3D variational inversion systems using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane as well as information in the bottom-up inventories on anthropogenic super-emitters detected by remote sensing (mainly oil and gas sector but also coal, agriculture, and landfills) to improve source partitioning. The data presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GKQ9-2RHT (Martinez et al., 2024).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

New Mechanistic Models of Long Term Evolution of Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of Nickel Based Alloys

The report describes the development of a discrete element method (DEM) based modeling approach to quantitatively predict deformation and failure of typical nickel based superalloys. A series of experimental data, including microstructure and mechanical property characterization at 600°C, was collected for a relatively simple, model solid solution Ni-20Cr alloy (Nimonic 75) to determine inputs for the model and provide data for model validation. Nimonic 75 was considered ideal for this study because it is a certified tensile and creep reference material. A series of new DEM modeling approaches were developed to capture the complexity of metal deformation, including cubic elastic anisotropy and plastic deformation both with and without strain hardening. Our model approaches were implemented into a commercially available DEM code, PFC3D, that is commonly used by engineers. It is envisioned that once further developed, this new DEM modeling approach can be adapted to a wide range of engineering applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗