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At least 883 records · Page 49
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Missing components in ΛCDM from DESI Y1 baryonic acoustic oscillation measurements: Insights from redshift remapping

We explore transformations of the Friedman-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) metric and cosmological parameters that align with observational data while aiming to gain insights into potential extensions of standard cosmological models. We modified the FLRW metric by introducing a scaling factor, e 2Θ(a) –the cosmological scaling function (CSF), which alters the standard relationship between cosmological redshift and the cosmic scale factor without affecting angular measurements or cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies. Using data from DESI Year 1, Pantheon+ supernovae, and the Planck CMB temperature power spectrum, we constrained both the CSF and cosmological parameters through a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. Our results indicate that the CSF model fits observational data with a lower Hubble constant (although it is compatible with the value given by Planck 2018 within 1σ) and is predominantly dark matter dominated. Additionally, the CSF model produces temperature and lensing power spectra similar to those predicted by the standard model, though with lower values in the CSF model at large scales. We also checked that when fitting a CSF model without dark energy to the data, we obtain a more negative conformal function. This suggests that the CSF model may offer hints about missing elements and opens up a new avenue for exploring physical interpretations of cosmic acceleration.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

The five planets in the Kepler-296 binary system all orbit the primary: A Statistical and analytical analysis

Kepler-296 is a binary star system with two M-dwarf components separated by 0.″2. Five transiting planets have been confirmed to be associated with the Kepler-296 system; given the evidence to date, however, the planets could in principle orbit either star. This ambiguity has made it difficult to constrain both the orbital and physical properties of the planets. Using both statistical and analytical arguments, this paper shows that all five planets are highly likely to orbit the primary star in this system. We performed a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo simulation using a five transiting planet model, leaving the stellar density and dilution with uniform priors. Using importance sampling, we compared the model probabilities under the priors of the planets orbiting either the brighter or the fainter component of the binary. A model where the planets orbit the brighter component, Kepler-296A, is strongly preferred by the data. Combined with our assertion that all five planets orbit the same star, the two outer planets in the system, Kepler-296 Ae and Kepler-296 Af, have radii of 1.53 ± 0.26 and 1.80 ± 0.31 R{sub ⊕}, respectively, and receive incident stellar fluxes of 1.40 ± 0.23 and 0.62 ± 0.10 times the incident flux the Earth receives from the Sun. This level of irradiation places both planets within or close to the circumstellar habitable zone of their parent star.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Exploring experimental conditions to reduce uncertainties in the optical potential

Uncertainty quantification for nuclear theories has gained a more prominent role in the field, with more groups attempting to understand the uncertainties in their calculations. However, recent studies have shown that the uncertainties on the optical potentials are too large for the theory to be useful. The goal of this work is to explore possible experimental conditions that may reduce the uncertainties on elastic scattering and single-nucleon transfer cross sections that come from the fitting of the optical model parameters to experimental data. Using Bayesian methods, we explore the effect of the uncertainties of optical model parameters on the angular grid of the differential cross section, including cross-section data at nearby energies, and changes in the experimental error bars. We also study the effect on the resulting uncertainty when other observables are included in the fitting procedure, particularly the total (reaction) cross sections. We study proton and neutron elastic scattering on 48 Ca and 208 Pb. We explore the parameter space with the Markov-chain Monte Carlo method, produce posterior distributions for the optical model parameters, and construct the corresponding 95% confidence intervals on the elastic-scattering cross sections. We also propagate the uncertainties on the optical potentials to the 48 Ca(d,p) 49 Ca(g.s.) and 208 Pb(d,p) 209 Pb(g.s.) cross sections. We find little sensitivity to the angular grid and an improvement of up to a factor of 2 on the uncertainties by including data at a nearby energy. Although reducing the error bars on the data does reduce the uncertainty, the gain is often considerably smaller than one would naively expect. We also find that the inclusion of total reaction cross section can improve the uncertainty although the magnitude of the effect depends strongly on the cases considered.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

A new approach to detailed structural decomposition from the splash and phat surveys: Kicked-up disk stars in the Andromeda galaxy?

We characterize the bulge, disk, and halo subcomponents in the Andromeda galaxy (M31) over the radial range 4 kpc < R {sub proj} < 225 kpc. The cospatial nature of these subcomponents renders them difficult to disentangle using surface brightness (SB) information alone, especially interior to ∼20 kpc. Our new decomposition technique combines information from the luminosity function (LF) of over 1.5 million bright (20 < m {sub 814W} < 22) stars from the Panchromatic Hubble Andromeda Treasury survey, radial velocities of over 5000 red giant branch stars in the same magnitude range from the Spectroscopic and Photometric Landscape of Andromeda's Stellar Halo survey, and integrated I-band SB profiles from various sources. We use an affine-invariant Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to fit an appropriate toy model to these three data sets. The bulge, disk, and halo SB profiles are modeled as a Sérsic, exponential, and cored power law, respectively, and the LFs are modeled as broken power laws. We present probability distributions for each of 32 parameters describing the SB profiles and LFs of the three subcomponents. We find that the number of stars with a disk-like LF is 5.2% ± 2.1% larger than the number with disk-like (dynamically cold) kinematics, suggesting that some stars born in the disk have been dynamically heated to the point that they are kinematically indistinguishable from halo members. This is the first kinematical evidence for a 'kicked-up disk' halo population in M31. The fraction of kicked-up disk stars is consistent with that found in simulations. We also find evidence for a radially varying disk LF, consistent with a negative metallicity gradient in the stellar disk.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

On spatial mutation-selection models

We discuss the selection procedure in the framework of mutation models. We study the regulation for stochastically developing systems based on a transformation of the initial Markov process which includes a cost functional. The transformation of initial Markov process by cost functional has an analytic realization in terms of a Kimura-Maruyama type equation for the time evolution of states or in terms of the corresponding Feynman-Kac formula on the path space. The state evolution of the system including the limiting behavior is studied for two types of mutation-selection models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2019

Scalable Bayesian Nonparametric Clustering and Classification

We develop a scalable multi-step Monte Carlo algorithm for inference under a large class of nonparametric Bayesian models for clustering and classification. Each step is “embarrassingly parallel” and can be implemented using the same Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler. The simplicity and generality of our approach makes inference for a wide range of Bayesian nonparametric mixture models applicable to large datasets. Specifically, we apply the approach to inference under a product partition model with regression on covariates. We show results for inference with two motivating data sets: a large set of electronic health records (EHR) and a bank telemarketing dataset. We find interesting clusters and competitive classification performance relative to other widely used competing classifiers. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Quaternary AlInGaN/InGaN quantum well on vicinal c-plane substrate for high emission intensity of green wavelengths

Electronic and optical properties of non-trivial semipolar AlInGaN/InGaN quantum well (QW) structures are investigated by using the multiband effective-mass theory and non-Markovian optical model. On vicinal c-plane GaN substrate miscut by a small angle (θ < 40°) from c-plane, the AlInGaN/InGaN system is shown to have ∼3 times larger spontaneous emission peak intensity than the conventional InGaN/GaN system at green wavelength. It is attributed to much larger optical matrix element of the quaternary AlInGaN/InGaN system, derived from the reduction of internal electric field induced by polarizations. This effect exceeds the performance-degrading factor of smaller quasi-Fermi-level separation for the quaternary AlInGaN/InGaN system than that for the conventional InGaN/GaN system. Results indicate that the use of quaternary III-nitride QWs on vicinal substrates may be beneficial in improving the performance of optical devices emitting green light.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Model-Based, Bayesian Solution for Characterization of Complex Damage Scenarios in Aerospace Composite Structures

Ultrasonic damage detection and characterization is commonly used in nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of aerospace composite components. In recent years there has been an increased development of guided wave based methods. In real materials and structures, these dispersive waves result in complicated behavior in the presence of complex damage scenarios. Model-based characterization methods utilize accurate three dimensional finite element models (FEMs) of guided wave interaction with realistic damage scenarios to aid in defect identification and classification. This work describes an inverse solution for realistic composite damage characterization by comparing the wavenumber-frequency spectra of experimental and simulated ultrasonic inspections. The composite laminate material properties are first verified through a Bayesian solution (Markov chain Monte Carlo), enabling uncertainty quantification surrounding the characterization. A study is undertaken to assess the efficacy of the proposed damage model and comparative metrics between the experimental and simulated output. The FEM is then parameterized with a damage model capable of describing the typical complex damage created by impact events in composites. The damage is characterized through a transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo solution, enabling a flexible damage model capable of adapting to the complex damage geometry investigated here. The posterior probability distributions of the individual delamination petals as well as the overall envelope of the damage site are determined.

H. Reed↗
DOE OSTI2019

A Bayesian Approach to Real-Time Dynamic Parameter Estimation Using Phasor Measurement Unit Measurement

Here, we develop a polynomial-chaos-expansion (PCE)-based approach for decentralized dynamic parameter estimation through Bayesian inference. Using this approach, the non-Gaussian distribution of the inverted parameters is obtained. More specifically, we first represent the decentralized generator model with the PCE-based surrogate. This surrogate allows us to efficiently evaluate the time-consuming dynamic solver at parameter values through Metropolis-Hastings (M-H)-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Then, we propose a two-stage hybrid Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to recover a posteriori distribution of the decentralized generator model parameters. In the first stage, we use the gradient-enhanced Langevin MCMC algorithm to characterize an intermediate posterior parameter distribution. This algorithm is computationally scalable to the high-dimensional parameter space. Based on the intermediate posterior distribution, during the second stage, we use the adaptive MCMC algorithm to fine-tune the strong correlations between the parameters. Finally, the fully recovered a posterior distribution is obtained in the end. The simulation results show that the proposed PCE-based hybrid MCMC algorithm can accurately and efficiently estimate the high-dimensional generator dynamic model parameters with full probabilistic distribution provided.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2012

Adaptive control based on retrospective cost optimization

A discrete-time adaptive control law for stabilization, command following, and disturbance rejection that is effective for systems that are unstable, MIMO, and/or nonminimum phase. The adaptive control algorithm includes guidelines concerning the modeling information needed for implementation. This information includes the relative degree, the first nonzero Markov parameter, and the nonminimum-phase zeros. Except when the plant has nonminimum-phase zeros whose absolute value is less than the plant's spectral radius, the required zero information can be approximated by a sufficient number of Markov parameters. No additional information about the poles or zeros need be known. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the algorithm's effectiveness in handling systems with errors in the required modeling data, unknown latency, sensor noise, and saturation.

Santillo, Mario A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

A data-driven multiscale model for reactive wetting simulations

Here, we describe a data-driven, multiscale technique to model reactive wetting of a silver–aluminum alloy on a Kovar™ (Fe-Ni-Co alloy) surface. We employ molecular dynamics simulations to elucidate the dependence of surface tension and wetting angle on the drop’s composition and temperature. A design of computational experiments is used to efficiently generate training data of surface tension and wetting angle from a limited number of molecular dynamics simulations. The simulation results are used to parameterize models of the material’s wetting properties and compute the uncertainty in the models due to limited data. The data-driven models are incorporated into an engineering-scale (continuum) model of a silver–aluminum sessile drop on a Kovar™ substrate. Model predictions of the wetting angle are compared with experiments of pure silver spreading on Kovar™ to quantify the model-form errors introduced by the limited training data versus the simplifications inherent in the molecular dynamics simulations. The paper presents innovations in the determination of “convergence” of noisy MD simulations before they are used to extract the wetting angle and surface tension, and the construction of their models which approximate physio-chemical processes that are left unresolved by the engineering-scale model. Together, these constitute a multiscale approach that integrates molecular-scale information into continuum scale models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2013

REAL OR INTERLOPER? THE REDSHIFT LIKELIHOODS OF z > 8 GALAXIES IN THE HUDF12

In the absence of spectra, the technique of fitting model galaxy template spectra to observed photometric fluxes has become the workhorse method for determining the redshifts and other properties for high-z galaxy candidates. In this paper, we present an analysis of the most recent and possibly most distant galaxies (z {approx} 8-12) discovered in the Hubble Ultra Deep Field (HUDF) using a more robust method of redshift estimation based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) fitting, in contrast to the ''best fit'' models obtained using simpler {chi}{sup 2} minimization techniques. The advantage of MCMC fitting is the ability to accurately estimate the probability density function of the redshift for each object as well as any input model parameters. This makes it possible to derive accurate, credible intervals by properly marginalizing over all other input model parameters. We apply our method to 13 recently identified sources in the HUDF and show that, despite claims based on {chi}{sup 2} minimization, none of these sources can be securely ruled out as low redshift interlopers (z < 4) due to the low signal-to-noise of currently available observations. There is an average probability of 21% that these sources are low redshift interlopers.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Capabilities of multivariate Bayesian inference toward seismic hazard assessment

Multivariate Bayesian analysis can bring significant benefits to seismic hazard analysis: Its multivariate feature enables computing scalar and vector hazard without making any approximations; Correlations between intensity measures are implicitly modeled, permitting direct simulation of ground motion selection tools such as the conditional mean spectrum and the generalized conditioning intensity measure; and Its updating feature enables a seamless integration of new ground motion data into the hazard results. Here, we first develop a multivariate Bayesian ground motion model through the NGA-West2 database. The model functional form considers fault-type, magnitude, and distance dependencies, and also the linear and the rock intensity dependent site response. We use a hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling to perform Bayesian inference consisting of Gibbs step and a multilevel Metropolis-Hastings step. We then perform several checks on the model and note that its performance is satisfactory. Finally, we illustrate the merits of this multivariate Bayesian analysis, which include: ground motion model updating with ground motion data recorded in the last four years not part of the NGA-West2 database; computation of scalar and vector seismic hazard using the un-updated and updated ground motion models for Los Angeles, CA; and simulation of the conditional mean spectrum under scalar and vector IM conditioning while accounting for different sources of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Uncertainty analysis of multi-rate kinetics of uranium desorption from sediments

A multi-rate expression for uranyl [U(VI)] surface complexation reactions has been proposed to describe diffusion-limited U(VI) sorption/desorption in heterogeneous subsurface sediments. An important assumption in the rate expression is that its rate constants follow a certain type probability distribution. In this paper, a Bayes-based, Differential Evolution Markov Chain method was used to assess the distribution assumption and to analyze parameter and model structure uncertainties. U(VI) desorption from a contaminated sediment at the US Hanford 300 Area, Washington was used as an example for detail analysis. The results indicated that: 1) the rate constants in the multi-rate expression contain uneven uncertainties with slower rate constants having relative larger uncertainties; 2) the lognormal distribution is an effective assumption for the rate constants in the multi-rate model to simualte U(VI) desorption; 3) however, long-term prediction and its uncertainty may be significantly biased by the lognormal assumption for the smaller rate constants; and 4) both parameter and model structure uncertainties can affect the extrapolation of the multi-rate model with a larger uncertainty from the model structure. The results provide important insights into the factors contributing to the uncertainties of the multi-rate expression commonly used to describe the diffusion or mixing-limited sorption/desorption of both organic and inorganic contaminants in subsurface sediments.

Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2017

Self-learning Monte Carlo method and cumulative update in fermion systems

In this study, we develop the self-learning Monte Carlo (SLMC) method, a general-purpose numerical method recently introduced to simulate many-body systems, for studying interacting fermion systems. Our method uses a highly efficient update algorithm, which we design and dub “cumulative update”, to generate new candidate configurations in the Markov chain based on a self-learned bosonic effective model. From a general analysis and a numerical study of the double exchange model as an example, we find that the SLMC with cumulative update drastically reduces the computational cost of the simulation, while remaining statistically exact. Remarkably, its computational complexity is far less than the conventional algorithm with local updates.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Federated Deep Reinforcement Learning for Decentralized VVO of BTM DERs

The future of grid control requires a hybrid approach combining centralized and decentralized methods to fully utilize the potential of smart edge devices with artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities. This paper aims to develop and evaluate a federated deep reinforcement learning (FDRL) framework for decentralized adaptive volt-var optimization (VVO) of behind-the-meter (BTM) distributed energy resources (DERs). First, this paper models a single deep reinforcement learning (DRL) agent using the Markov Decision Process (MDP) framework for decentralized adaptive VVO of BTM DERs. Two DRL algorithms, soft actor-critic (SAC) and twin-delayed deep deterministic policy gradient (TD3), are compared for their effectiveness in optimizing VVO. Results show that TD3 outperforms SAC, achieving a 71.3% improvement in mean reward. Finally, the DRL agent is deployed within the FDRL framework, using the Flower platform, to enhance learning, provide adaptive control, and ensure data privacy for BTM DERs.

Ravi, Abhijith↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-J-224: Multimodality Segmentation of Head and Neck Tumors

Purpose: Develop an algorithm that is able to automatically segment tumor volume in Head and Neck cancer by integrating information from CT, PET and MR imaging simultaneously. Methods: Twenty three patients that were recruited under an adaptive radiotherapy protocol had MR, CT and PET/CT scans within 2 months prior to start of radiotherapy. The patients had unresectable disease and were treated either with chemoradiotherapy or radiation therapy alone. Using the Velocity software, the PET/CT and MR (T1 weighted+contrast) scans were registered to the planning CT using deformable and rigid registration respectively. The PET and MR images were then resampled according to the registration to match the planning CT. The resampled images, together with the planning CT, were fed into a multi-channel segmentation algorithm, which is based on Gaussian mixture models and solved with the expectation-maximization algorithm and Markov random fields. A rectangular region of interest (ROI) was manually placed to identify the tumor area and facilitate the segmentation process. The auto-segmented tumor contours were compared with the gross tumor volume (GTV) manually defined by the physician. The volume difference and Dice similarity coefficient (DSC) between the manual and autosegmented GTV contours were calculated as the quantitative evaluation metrics. Results: The multimodality segmentation algorithm was applied to all 23 patients. The volumes of the auto-segmented GTV ranged from 18.4cc to 32.8cc. The average (range) volume difference between the manual and auto-segmented GTV was −42% (−32.8%–63.8%). The average DSC value was 0.62, ranging from 0.39 to 0.78. Conclusion: An algorithm for the automated definition of tumor volume using multiple imaging modalities simultaneously was successfully developed and implemented for Head and Neck cancer. This development along with more accurate registration algorithms can aid physicians in the efforts to interpret the multitude of imaging information available in radiotherapy today. This project was supported by a grant by Varian Medical Systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1975

Detection of digital FSK using a phase-locked loop

A theory is presented for the design of a digital FSK receiver which employs a phase-locked loop to set up the desired matched filter as the arriving signal frequency switches. The developed mathematical model makes it possible to establish the error probability performance of systems which employ a class of digital FM modulations. The noise mechanism which accounts for decision errors is modeled on the basis of the Meyr distribution and renewal Markov process theory.

Lindsey, W. C.↗