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Evaluation of spacecraft technology programs (effects on communication satellite business ventures), volume 1

Commercial organizations as well as government agencies invest in spacecraft (S/C) technology programs that are aimed at increasing the performance of communications satellites. The value of these programs must be measured in terms of their impacts on the financial performane of the business ventures that may ultimately utilize the communications satellites. An economic evaluation and planning capability was developed and used to assess the impact of NASA on-orbit propulsion and space power programs on typical fixed satellite service (FSS) and direct broadcast service (DBS) communications satellite business ventures. Typical FSS and DBS spin and three-axis stabilized spacecraft were configured in the absence of NASA technology programs. These spacecraft were reconfigured taking into account the anticipated results of NASA specified on-orbit propulsion and space power programs. In general, the NASA technology programs resulted in spacecraft with increased capability. The developed methodology for assessing the value of spacecraft technology programs in terms of their impact on the financial performance of communication satellite business ventures is described. Results of the assessment of NASA specified on-orbit propulsion and space power technology programs are presented for typical FSS and DBS business ventures.

Greenburg, J. S.↗

Assessment of Potential Dose and Environmental Impacts from Proposed Testing at the INL Radiological Response Training Range

This assessment uses screening level models to calculate potential environmental impacts from proposed tests at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Radiological Response Training Range (RRTR) site. Proposed tests could be conducted using 11 different radioactive material types that include K 2 O, LaBr 3 , KBr, Cu, Zr, F, Ga, Ga 2 O 3 , NaNO 2 , Ga-68, and Tc-99m. The tests could potentially release radioactive material to the atmosphere and radionuclides and other contaminants to the soil, which could leach into the unsaturated zone and migrate to the aquifer. Atmospheric transport of radionuclides to potential human receptors and time-integrated air concentrations were calculated with a Gaussian plume model and three years of hourly meteorological data. Potential surface-soil impacts were calculated with the computer program Mixing-Cell Model (MCM). Groundwater impacts were calculated with the computer programs MCM and GWSCREEN. Radiological doses from potential atmospheric releases were calculated for public receptors off the INL Site and for workers at nearby INL facilities. Results were compared to regulatory dose limits. Maximum potential groundwater concentrations were estimated in the aquifer below the NSTR site and compared to drinking water standards or risk-based screening levels for resident tap water. Soil concentrations were calculated and compared to risk-based screening levels for workers and potential future residents. All impacts were estimated based on the assumption that 12 tests are conducted annually using all 11 material types for a period of 15 years. This document provides the resources to enable a subject matter expert in the field of environmental assessments to replicate the modeling and calculations. The methodology and parameters are presented in the text. All electronic files, including computer code input, output, executable files, batch files, scripts, and spreadsheet files are contained in a zip file that can be accessed by selecting “Additional Information” (select Native File) in the INL Electronic Document Management System (EDMS).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Assessment of Potential Dose and Environmental Impacts from Proposed Testing at the INL Radiological Response Training Range

This assessment uses screening-level models to calculate potential environmental impacts from proposed tests at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Radiological Response Training Range (RRTR) site. Proposed tests could be conducted using 11 different radioactive material types that include K2O, LaBr3, KBr, Cu, Zr, F, Ga, Ga2O3, NaNO2, Ga-68, and Tc-99m. The tests could potentially release radioactive material to the atmosphere and radionuclides and other contaminants to the soil, which could leach into the unsaturated zone and migrate to the aquifer. Atmospheric transport of radionuclides to potential human receptors and time-integrated air concentrations were calculated with a Gaussian plume model and three years of hourly meteorological data. Potential surface-soil impacts were calculated with the computer program mixing-cell model (MCM). Groundwater impacts were calculated with the computer programs MCM and GWSCREEN. Radiological doses from potential atmospheric releases were calculated for public receptors off the INL Site and for workers at nearby INL facilities. Results were compared to regulatory dose limits. Maximum potential groundwater concentrations were estimated in the aquifer below the NSTR site and compared to drinking water standards or risk-based screening levels for resident tap water. Soil concentrations were calculated and compared to risk-based screening levels for workers and potential future residents. All impacts were estimated assuming 12 tests are conducted annually using all 11 material types for a period of 15 years. This document provides the resources to enable a subject matter expert in the field of environmental assessments to replicate the modeling and calculations. The methodology and parameters are presented in the text. All electronic files, including computer-code input, output, executable files, batch files, scripts, and spreadsheet files are contained in a zip file that can be accessed by selecting “Additional Information” (select Native File) in the INL Electronic Document Management System (EDMS). It is highly unlikely the test scenarios evaluated in this ECAR will adversely impact human health based on comparisons of calculated dose and concentration against regulatory standards and risk-based screening levels. Conservative estimates of dose to workers and the public from atmospheric transport of possible radionuclide releases are far below federal radiation protection standards. Conservative estimates of potential contaminant concentrations in groundwater are less than federal drinking water standards or screening levels. Predicted radionuclide concentrations in surface soils are below risk-based screening levels, except for Ge-68 (material Ga-68) for the worker. The Ge-68 soil concentration can be made less than the worker PRG, if the number of annual tests using Ga-68 is reduced from 12 to 6. However, the sum of ratios still exceeds one because of the high K-40 ratio. If the EF of the worker (number of days the worker is in the contaminated testing area) is reduced from 225 days/yr (default value for full time worker) to 112 days/yr, the Ge-68 ratio is less than one and the sum of ratios is less than one. Actual radiation doses and groundwater and surface-soil concentrations are likely to be much less than those calculated because of the conservative assumptions and parameters employed in the modeling. For example, atmospheric-transport calculations assume the entire inventory of each material type is readily released to the atmosphere and no plume deposition, depletion, or radioactive decay occurs during transport. The calculations also assume the same meteorological conditions (e.g., wind velocity, wind direction, stability class) that produce the maximum 95th percentile concentration (i.e., concentration representing the 95th percentile of a distribution of concentrations derived from 3 years of hourly meteorological data) at each receptor location are the same for all 12 tests during the year, and each receptor is assumed to be present during all 12 tests. The surface-soil assessment assumes the entire inventory of each test is deposited in the top 5 cm of soil. No atmospheric dispersal is assumed, and the radionuclides are subject only to leaching and radioactive decay. The groundwater-pathway modeling is conservative in that it is one-dimensional in the unsaturated zone (no lateral spreading/dilution) and assumes the entire inventory of contaminants infiltrates into the ground at the same location for every test. This is especially conservative for particulate radionuclides because they would have to dissolve or corrode first and some would be dispersed into the atmosphere. The groundwater receptor is also assumed to consume water directly from a hypothetical well positioned in the location of maximum concentration. In addition, conservative degradation rates were used, and volatilization was not considered for the nonradioactive chemical

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of Potential Dose and Environmental Impacts from Proposed Testing at the INL National Security Test Range

This assessment uses screening-level models to calculate potential environmental impacts from proposed tests at two locations at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) National Security Test Range (NSTR) site. Proposed tests could be conducted using 11 different radioactive material types that include K 2 O, LaBr 3 , KBr, Cu, Zr, F, Ga, Ga 2 O 3 , NaNO 2 , Ga-68, and Tc-99m. The tests could potentially release radioactive material to the atmosphere and radionuclides and other contaminants to the soil, which could leach into the unsaturated zone and migrate to the aquifer. Atmospheric transport of radionuclides to potential human receptors and time-integrated air concentrations were calculated with a Gaussian plume model and three years of hourly meteorological data. Potential surface-soil impacts were calculated with the computer program mixing-cell model (MCM). Groundwater impacts were calculated with the computer programs MCM and GWSCREEN. Radiological doses from potential atmospheric releases were calculated for public receptors off the INL Site and for workers at nearby INL facilities. Results were compared to regulatory dose limits. Maximum potential groundwater concentrations were estimated in the aquifer below the NSTR site and compared to drinking water standards or risk-based screening levels for resident tap water. Soil concentrations were calculated and compared to risk-based screening levels for workers and potential future residents. All impacts were estimated based on the assumption that 12 tests are conducted annually using all 11 material types for 15 years. This document provides the resources to enable a subject matter expert in the field of environmental assessments to replicate the modeling and calculations. The methodology and parameters are presented in the text. All electronic files, including computer-code input, output, executable files, batch files, scripts, and spreadsheet files, are contained in a zip file that can be accessed by selecting “Additional Information” (select Native File) in the INL Electronic Document Management System (EDMS). It is highly unlikely the test scenarios evaluated in this ECAR will adversely impact human health based on comparisons of calculated dose and concentration against regulatory standards and risk-based screening levels. Conservative estimates of dose to workers and the public from atmospheric transport of possible radionuclide releases are far below federal radiation protection standards. Conservative estimates of potential contaminant concentrations in groundwater are less than federal drinking water standards or screening levels. Predicted radionuclide concentrations in surface soils are below risk-based screening levels, except for Ge-68 (material Ga-68) for the worker. The Ge-68 soil concentration can be made less than the worker PRG, if the number of annual tests using Ga-68 is reduced from 12 to 6. However, the sum of ratios still exceeds one because of the high K-40 ratio. If the EF of the worker (number of days the worker is in the contaminated testing area) is reduced from 225 days/yr (default value for full time worker) to 112 days/yr, the Ge-68 ratio is less than one and the sum of ratios is less than one. Actual radiation doses and groundwater and surface-soil concentrations are likely to be much less than those calculated because of the conservative assumptions and parameters employed in the modeling. For example, atmospheric-transport calculations assume the entire inventory of each material type is readily released to the atmosphere and no plume deposition, depletion, or radioactive decay occurs during transport. The calculations also assume the same meteorological conditions (e.g., wind velocity, wind direction, stability class) that produce the maximum 95th percentile concentration (i.e., concentration representing the 95th percentile of a distribution of concentrations derived from 3 years of hourly meteorological data) at each receptor location are the same for all 12 tests during the year, and each receptor is assumed to be present during all 12 tests. The surface-soil assessment assumes the entire inventory of each test is deposited in the top 5 cm of soil. No atmospheric dispersal is assumed, and the radionuclides are subject only to leaching and radioactive decay. The groundwater-pathway modeling is conservative in that it is one-dimensional in the unsaturated zone (no lateral spreading/dilution) and assumes the entire inventory of contaminants infiltrates into the ground at the same location for every test. This is especially conservative for particulate radionuclides because they would have to dissolve or corrode first and some would be dispersed into the atmosphere. The groundwater receptor is also assumed to consume water directly from a hypothetical well positioned in the location of maximum concentration. In addition, conservative degradation rates were used, and volatilization was not considered for the nonradradioactive chemicals modeled. And finally, the calculations assume all 12 tests will be performed at the same place at both locations, and all 11 radioactive material types will be used for each test. This is conservative because it is anticipated that no more than two material types will be used per test.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

The Impact of Mission Duration on a Mars Orbital Mission

Performance alone is insufficient to assess the total impact of changing mission parameters on a space mission concept, architecture, or campaign; the benefit, cost, and risk must also be understood. This paper examines the impact to benefit, cost, and risk of changing the total mission duration of a human Mars orbital mission. The changes in the sizing of the crew habitat, including consumables and spares, was assessed as a function of duration, including trades of different life support strategies; this was used to assess the impact on transportation system requirements. The impact to benefit is minimal, while the impact on cost is dominated by the increases in transportation costs to achieve shorter total durations. The risk is expected to be reduced by decreasing total mission duration; however, large uncertainty exists around the magnitude of that reduction.

Arney, Dale↗

Impact of LWR Assembly Structural Features on Cladding Burst Behavior under LOCA Conditions

This report builds on the previous work by assessing the impact of assembly structural features on cladding balloon and burst behavior. The BISON fuel performance code was used to generate two dimensional RZ meshes containing structural features commonly used in nuclear fuel assemblies. The results were then compared to the cladding burst temperature and balloon strain results from the previous work. A mesh sensitivity study was performed to ensure spacer grid effects were appropriately considered, resulting in a more refined mesh than the previous study. The balloon deformation and burst times of the cladding were compared. Consideration was also given to the effect of rod initial pressure. Overall, the BISON simulations indicated the spacer grids can locally influence cladding performance, however, the impact on the cladding performance was minor.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Chapter 14: Sustainable Biomass Conversion Process Assessment

Process intensification and integration for sustainable design play an essential role in addressing and alleviating severe sustainable development challenges. It is prudent to evaluate a process design in its early stage development to ensure the process can achieve sustainability goals. The primary goal of a sustainability evaluation is to assess the impact of systems on areas sought to be protected and maintained over time, such as human well-being and ecosystems (Schaubroeck, T. and Rugani, B. (2017). A revision of what life cycle sustainability assessment should entail: towards modeling the net impact on human well-being. Journal of Industrial Ecology 21 (6): 1464-1477). Parenthetically, sustainable process design to convert biomass to fuels and chemicals plays an integral part in the bioeconomy sustainability. It is recognized that the integration of sustainability in process design is core to the mission in developing renewable fuels and should be considered a necessary practice in biorefinery design. This study demonstrates the use of Gauging Reaction Effectiveness for ENvironmental Sustainability of Chemistries with a multi-Objective Process Evaluator (GREENSCOPE) as a tool to help track progress on process sustainability performance attributed to conversion improvement. With the incorporation of a wide range of indicators, GREENSCOPE captures the multi-dimensional aspect of the process design and operation. As opposed to conventional techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment (in which the focuses are limited to economic and environmental aspects), GREENSCOPE enables the consideration of process intensification and integration for sustainable design. A high-octane gasoline production from woody biomass feedstock is used as a case study to demonstrate the approach.

biomass↗

Impact damage resistance and residual property assessment of (0/+/-45/90)s SCS-6/Timetal 21S

The impact damage resistance and residual mechanical properties of (0/ +/- 45/90)s SCS-6/Timetal 21S composites were evaluated. Both quasi-static indentation and drop-weight impact tests were used to investigate the impact behavior at two nominal energy levels (5.5 and 8.4 J) and determine the onset of internal damage. Through x-ray inspection, the extent of internal damage was characterized non-destructively. The composite strength and constant amplitude fatigue response were evaluated to assess the effects of the sustained damage. Scanning electron microscopy was used to characterize internal damage from impact in comparison to damage that occurs during mechanical loading alone. The effect of stacking sequence was examined by using specimens with the long dimension of the specimen both parallel (longitudinal) and perpendicular (transverse) to the 0 deg fiber direction. Damage in the form of longitudinal and transverse cracking occurred in all longitudinal specimens tested at energies greater than 6.3 J. Similar results occurred in the transverse specimens tested above 5.4 J. Initial load drop, characteristic of the onset of damage, occurred on average at 6.3 J in longitudinal specimens and at 5.0 J in transverse specimens. X-ray analysis showed broken fibers in the impacted region in specimens tested at the higher impact energies. At low impact energies, visible matrix cracking may occur, but broken fibers may not. Matrix cracking was noted along fiber swims and it appeared to depend on the surface quality of composite. At low impact energies, little damage has been incurred by the composite and the residual strength and residual life is not greatly reduced as compared to an undamaged composite. At higher impact energies, more damage occurred and a greater effect of the impact damage was observed.

Miller, Jennifer L.↗

Optoelectronic properties of bent two-dimensional materials from first-principles methods combined with machine learning

A material’s interaction with light is highly relevant in the design of nanoelectronic devices such as photodiodes, solar cells, photocatalytic cells, phototransistors, and photodetectors. The interaction of a material with light can be altered by mechanical deformation. Fine tuning of the optical properties can be achieved by mechanical bending that alters the electronic structure. Optical properties strongly depend on band gaps, therefore any alteration in the band structure results in a changed optical response of the material. The impact of bending was explored in this project. The goal of this project was to assess the impact of mechanical bending of two-dimensional transition metal dichalcogenides on their optoelectronic properties, using first-principles methods. These first-principles approximations are largely built upon many-body theory for the optical properties of magnetic and topological nanoribbons. GW-BSE is standard for optical absorption, but it is less practical for collective excitations as it was shown in model systems. Time-dependent density functional theory, however, has better promises for collective excitations in low-dimensional materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Structural assessment of a space station solar dynamic heat receiver thermal energy storage canister

The structural performance of a space station thermal energy storage (TES) canister subject to orbital solar flux variation and engine cold start up operating conditions was assessed. The impact of working fluid temperature and salt-void distribution on the canister structure are assessed. Both analytical and experimental studies were conducted to determine the temperature distribution of the canister. Subsequent finite element structural analyses of the canister were performed using both analytically and experimentally obtained temperatures. The Arrhenius creep law was incorporated into the procedure, using secondary creep data for the canister material, Haynes 188 alloy. The predicted cyclic creep strain accumulations at the hot spot were used to assess the structural performance of the canister. In addition, the structural performance of the canister based on the analytically determined temperature was compared with that based on the experimentally measured temperature data.

Thompson, R. L.↗

Predicting the Earth encounters of (99942) Apophis

Arecibo delay-Doppler measurements of (99942) Apophis in 2005 and 2006 resulted in a five standard-deviation trajectory correction to the optically predicted close approach distance to Earth in 2029. The radar measurements reduced the volume of the statistical uncertainty region entering the encounter to 7.3% of the pre-radar solution, but increased the trajectory uncertainty growth rate across the encounter by 800% due to the closer predicted approach to the Earth. A small estimated Earth impact probability remained for 2036. With standard-deviation plane-of-sky position uncertainties for 2007-2010 already less than 0.2 arcsec, the best near-term ground-based optical astrometry can only weakly affect the trajectory estimate. While the potential for impact in 2036 will likely be excluded in 2013 (if not 2011) using ground-based optical measurements, approximations within the Standard Dynamical Model (SDM) used to estimate and predict the trajectory from the current era are sufficient to obscure the difference between a predicted impact and a miss in 2036 by altering the dynamics leading into the 2029 encounter. Normal impact probability assessments based on the SDM become problematic without knowledge of the object's physical properties; impact could be excluded while the actual dynamics still permit it. Calibrated position uncertainty intervals are developed to compensate for this by characterizing the minimum and maximum effect of physical parameters on the trajectory. Uncertainty in accelerations related to solar radiation can cause between 82 and 4720 Earth-radii of trajectory change relative to the SDM by 2036. If an actionable hazard exists, alteration by 2-10% of Apophis' total absorption of solar radiation in 2018 could be sufficient to produce a six standard-deviation trajectory change by 2036 given physical characterization; even a 0.5% change could produce a trajectory shift of one Earth-radius by 2036 for all possible spin-poles and likely masses. Planetary ephemeris uncertainties are the next greatest source of systematic error, causing up to 23 Earth-radii of uncertainty. The SDM Earth point-mass assumption introduces an additional 2.9 Earth-radii of prediction error by 2036. Unmodeled asteroid perturbations produce as much as 2.3 Earth-radii of error. We find no future small-body encounters likely to yield an Apophis mass determination prior to 2029. However, asteroid (144898) 2004 VD17, itself having a statistical Earth impact in 2102, will probably encounter Apophis at 6.7 lunar distances in 2034, their uncertainty regions coming as close as 1.6 lunar distances near the center of both SDM probability distributions.

Orbit determination↗

Using Remote Sensing to Assess of Growth and Distribution for Floating Invasive Plants and Growth Response Times to Altered Environments

Management of aquatic weeds in complex watersheds and river systems present many challenges to assessment, planning and implementation of management practices for aquatic invasive plants. The Delta Region Areawide Aquatic Weed Project (DRAAWP), a USDA (U. S. Dept. of Agriculture)-sponsored area-wide project, is working to enhance planning, decision-making and operational efficiency of invasive plant management in the California Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Satellite and airborne remote sensing are used to map area of plant coverage and estimate biomass density to aid operations and assess management impacts on plant communities. Modeling at local and watershed scales using the SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) modeling tool provides insight into land-use effects on water quality. Environmental variability in the Delta occurs across a range of time scales from long-term climate and seasonal trends to short-term water flow mediated variations. Controlled environment growth studies have been conducted to quantify the growth response of invasive aquatic plants to water quality and other environmental factors. Response time for invasive species response are examined at time scales of weeks, day, and hours using a combination of study duration and growth assessment techniques to assess water quality, temperature (air and water), and light effects. These provide response parameters for plant growth models in response to environmental variation and interact with management and economic models associated with aquatic weed management. Plant growth models are to be informed by remote sensing and applied spatially across the Delta to balance location and type of aquatic plant, growth response to altered environments and phenology. Initial utilization of remote sensing tools developed for mapping of aquatic invasive plants improved operational efficiency in management practices. These assessment methods provide a comprehensive and quantitative view of aquatic invasive plant communities in the California Delta.

Floating↗

Analysis of the impact of the use of broad specification fuels on combustors for commercial aircraft gas turbine engines

An analytical study was conducted to assess the impact of the use of broad specification fuels with reduced hydrogen content on the design, performance, durability, emissions and operational characteristics of combustors for commercial aircraft gas turbine engines. The study was directed at defining necessary design revisions to combustors designed for use of Jet A when such are operated on ERBS (Experimental Referee Broad Specification Fuel) which has a nominal hydrogen content of 12.8 percent as opposed to 13.7 percent in current Jet A. The results indicate that improvements in combustor liner cooling, and/or materials, and methods of fuel atomization will be required if the hydrogen content of aircraft gas turbine fuel is decreased.

Szetela, E. J.↗

Disaggregating growth in future retail electricity rates

The retail rate impacts of a number of emerging trends (e.g., rapid deployment of electric vehicles and storage, transmission build-out for large-scale renewables deployment, and grid modernization) are unknown. Importantly, decision-makers are concerned about the potential future rate impacts on energy affordability and equity. We disaggregate the key drivers of retail electricity rates and assess their impacts on future rate growth considering their interactions and uncertainty. Specifically, we develop ranges of future cost growth for a generic investor-owned and vertically-integrated electric utility representing typical cost and operating characteristics. The rate driver growth rate ranges are applied in isolation and jointly to quantify the uncertainty and variability in future retail electricity rates. The results identify what rate drivers and factors may minimize and/or decrease uncertainty in retail rate growth and their linkages to industry trends.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Meteorological Model's Dependence on Radiation Update Frequency

Numerical weather models are used to simulate circulations in the atmosphere including clouds and precipitation by applying a set of mathematical equations over a three-dimensional grid. The grid is composed of discrete points at which the meteorological variables are defined. As computing power continues to rise these models are being used at finer grid spacing, but they must still cover a wide range of scales. Some of the physics that must be accounted for in the model cannot be explicitly resolved, and their effects, therefore, must be estimated or "parameterized". Some of these parameterizations are computationally expensive. To alleviate the problem, they are not always updated at the time resolution of the model with the assumption being that the impact will be small. In this study, a coupled land-atmosphere model is used to assess the impact of less frequent updates of the computationally expensive radiation physics for a case on June 6, 2002, that occurred during a field experiment over the central plains known as International H20 Project (IHOP). The model was tested using both the original conditions, which were dry, and with modified conditions wherein moisture was added to the lower part of the atmosphere to produce clouds and precipitation (i.e., a wet case). For each of the conditions (i.e., dry and wet), four set of experiments were conducted wherein the model was run for a period of 24 hours and the radiation fields (including both incoming solar and outgoing longwave) were updated every 1, 3, 10, and 100 time steps. Statistical tests indicated that average quantities of surface variables for both the dry and wet cases were the same for the various update frequencies. However, spatially the results could be quite different especially in the wet case after it began to rain. The near-surface wind field was found to be different most of the time even for the dry case. In the wet case, rain intensities and average vertical profiles of heating associated with cloudy areas were found to differ for the various radiation update frequencies. The latter implies that the mean state of the model could be different as a result of not updating the radiation fields every time step and has important implications for longer term climate studies

Eastman, Joseph L.↗

Modeling the Urban Impact on Semiarid Surface Climate: A Case Study in Marrakech, Morocco

We combine Landsat and MODIS data in the Simple Biosphere Model to assess the impact of urbanization on surface climate in a semiarid city in North Africa. The model simulates highest temperatures in urban class, with spring average maximum temperature differences to other land cover classes ranging between 1.6 C and 6.0 C. During summer, these maximum temperature differences are smallest (0.5 C) with barelands and highest (8.3 C) with irrigated lawns. This excess heating is simulated above and beyond a seasonal temperature average of about 30 C during spring and 44 C during summer. On annual mean, a full urbanization scenario decreases the carbon fixation by 0.13 MtC and increases the daytime mean surface temperature by 1.3 C. This may boost the city energy consumption by 5.72%. Under a 'smart growth' scenario, whereby the city expands on barelands to cover 50% of the study region and all remaining barelands converted to orchards, the carbon fixation is enhanced by 0.04 MtC with a small daytime temperature increase of 0.2 C. Our results indicate that vegetation can mitigate the urban heating. The hydrological cycle indicates that highest ratio of surface runoff to precipitation (43.8%) occurs in urban areas, versus only 16.7 % for all cover types combined.

Lachir, Asia↗

Washington State Highway Bridge Seismic Screening Tool (BSST) (Technical Report)

The Regional Resiliency Assessment Program (RRAP) is a cooperative assessment of specific critical infrastructure within a designated geographic area and a regional analysis of the surrounding infrastructure that addresses a range of infrastructure resilience issues that could have regionally and nationally significant consequences. In 2017, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) sponsored the Washington State Transportation Systems RRAP project in coordination with the Washington Emergency Management Division (EMD), Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT), and other regional stakeholders. This project is focused on assessing the impacts of a Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake on state transportation systems and, in particular, how those impacts may affect the ability of emergency response efforts to move supplies into the region. The intended outcome of this analysis is the prioritization of transportation routes and modes for additional planning, investment, hardening, or other activities to enhance their resilience - and therefore, to enhance their ability to support response and recovery efforts following a CSZ earthquake. An important part of this transportation system-level assessment has been to assess the seismic vulnerability of the state highway system. In doing so, the RRAP project team developed a Bridge Seismic Screening Tool (BSST) to assess, at a system-level, the potential impacts that a CSZ earthquake could have on state highway bridges. The first step in the BSST is to assess the seismic vulnerability of highway bridge infrastructure in Washington State following a CSZ earthquake to determine a projected or potential damage state. Damage states are then used to determine approximate reopening times for bridge crossings.2 This document provides details on the methodological development of the BSST, the implementation of that tool to analyze the projected damage incurred in a CSZ earthquake scenario, and the determination of corresponding reopening times of interstate and state highway bridges following such an event. The BSST was implemented programmatically using a Microsoft Excel macro-enabled workbook; instructions on use of this tool are provided in the accompanying report, Washington State Highway Bridge Seismic Screening Tool (BSST) - User Manual.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Impact of Urban Pollution on Organic-Mediated New-Particle Formation and Particle Number Concentration in the Amazon Rainforest

A major challenge in assessing the impact of aerosols on climate change is to understand how human activities change aerosol loading and properties relative to the pristine-preindustrial baseline. Here we combine chemical transport simulation and field measurements to investigate the effect of anthropogenic pollution from an isolated metropolis on particle number concentration over the preindustrial-like Amazon rainforest through various new-particle formation (NPF) mechanisms and primary particle emissions. To represent organic-mediated NPF, we employ a state-of-the-art model that systematically simulates the formation chemistry and thermodynamics of extremely low volatility organic compounds as well as their roles in NPF processes, and further update the model to improve organic NPF simulations under human-influenced conditions. Results show that urban pollution from the metropolis increases particle number concentration by a factor of 5–25 over the downwind region (within 200 km from city center) compared to background conditions. Overall, our model indicates that NPF contributes over 70% of the total particle number in the downwind region except immediately adjacent to the sources. Among different NPF mechanisms, the ternary NPF involving organics and sulfuric acid overwhelmingly dominates. The improved understanding of particle formation mechanisms will help better quantify anthropogenic aerosol forcing from pristine-preindustrial times to present day.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗