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This technical presentation provides an update on the major trends that occurred in the solar industry in Q4 2017 and Q1 2018. Major topics of focus include global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.
Electric vehicles (EVs) today are a small part of the U.S. transportation fleet. Technological advancements, automotive industry investments and state policies are driving increased transportation electrification. Bloomberg New Energy Finance projects that by 2040, 55 percent of new sales of automobiles worldwide will be EVs. Increased transportation demand for electricity will require additional investments in the distribution system and will impact the bulk power system as load profiles change. At the same time, managed EV charging and discharging can make more efficient use of distribution system assets and increase grid flexibility. EVs also hold promise for lowering transportation costs and reducing air emissions. Infrastructure needs to electrify transportation across the United States far exceed current investment plans by EV charging companies, the public sector and others. Utilities are building “make-ready” infrastructure to ease development of public charging stations and offering rates tailored for EVs, and some utilities are directly investing in charging stations. The growth of EVs raises a number of questions for policymakers and others: How much public charging infrastructure will be needed, where should it be built and when will it be used? What role should utilities play in developing the infrastructure, compared to EV charging companies?How should charging infrastructure costs be allocated among utility customers? How should electricity rates be set to encourage efficient grid use and minimize negative grid impacts? How are states preparing for increasing electrification of the transportation sector? This report in the Future Electric Utility Regulation series from Berkeley Lab, tackles these questions and more. The report approaches the issues from three perspectives: utilities, the EV charging industry and consumers.
Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry, which became publicly available in October 2016. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.
The University of Texas at Austin’s Policy Research Project (PRP), a nine-month (two semesters) capstone, is a keystone of the core curriculum at the LBJ School of Public Affairs. In PRPs, small groups of students, under the mentorship of a faculty director, take on real-world problems that require special knowledge and skill sets. PRPs expose students to challenges in formulating and executing research, and in communicating academic research and related complex data to broader stakeholder communities and decision makers. The PRP structure is an innovative and effective approach for integrating research within the teaching and training of graduate students who are preparing themselves to address important real-world problems at the intersection of society, economics, technology, and policy. The project summaries below describe seven papers developed during September 2017 – May 2018 as part of a PRP on “Diffusion of Innovations: Interplay of Social, Economic, Technological, and Policy Drivers in the Solar Industry.” Twenty graduate students, drawn from the LBJ School’s Masters in Public Affairs and Masters in Global Policy Studies programs and the Jackson School Geoscience’s Energy and Earth Resources program, participated in this PRP. Dr. Varun Rai, Associate Professor and Associate Dean for Research at the LBJ School, directed the PRP, with support from his research team including: Dr. Ariane Beck, Dr. Ashok Sekar, D. Cale Reeves, and Erik Funkhouser. Clients for the project included the U.S. Department of Energy (Casey Canfield), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Ben Hoen, Galen Barbose Joachim Seel, Naïm Darghouth, Ryan Wiser), and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (Benjamin Sigrin, Eric O’Shaughnessy). The seven projects separately addressed one of the following topics: (1) low- and middle-income PV adoption, (2) modeling economic and information intervention design, (3) evaluation of DOE’s Solar in Your Community Challenge, (4) property value impacts near large-scale solar facilities, (5) solar market maturity and evolution of business models, (6) social media data for predicting PV adoption, and (7) individual-level variation in adoption of innovations. Many of the papers relied on data collected and curated by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, including data embedded within the annual Tracking the Sun and Utility-Scale Solar reports. Each of the seven teams in the PRP prepared a research paper. The PRP culminated with a full-day conference at UT Austin in May 2018 to present findings from the seven projects in this PRP to a broad audience of about 75 experts from academia, national labs, industry, and government from across the country.
Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry, which became publicly available in October 2016. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.
Under this SBIR project, Media and Process Technology Inc (MPT) has achieved ~60% cost reduction and system foot print of its ceramic membrane product, which leads to successful commercialization of its industrial ceramic membrane process to large scale applications. Ceramic membrane is known for its rugged materials and performance reliability; however, it has been limited in niche applications due to its cost and footprint. The low-cost ceramic membrane thus developed under this project has been field tested successfully in our semi-works production facility for used oil re-refining. Our membrane subsystem of our re-refining production capacity was tripled through the installation of this low-cost high packing density of ceramic membranes. In addition, we have successfully field tested/demonstrated with a pilot unit in two large scale applications for refinery FCC slurry upgrading and decoker/amine scrubber wastewater treatment. Commercialization of these two applications in oil refineries are currently actively pursued by our commercialization partner. With regard to the membrane product sales, we have produced >500 m 2 ceramic membranes for two full-scale installations for industrial oil/water separations in 2017, which is equivalent to ~50% of the annual US ceramic membrane market size. We will continue to push our low-cost high packing density ceramic membrane developed from this project for large scale applications, which are not currently occupied by existing ceramic membranes.
This report provides a status of development of utility RISA Use Case applications for which potential sponsoring utility partners have been identified. These applications were developed with utility participation during meetings held at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) on 15 May 2018. Each of these Use Case applications meets the needs of both plant owner / operators and the objectives of the LWRS Program. These applications also meet the needs of the host utilities and the overall industry in that they can be accomplished within a timeframe that can provide economic value to both the sponsoring host utility and the current operating fleet. In particular, the methods and tools that will be developed during these Use Case applications are be designed with the intent that they can be in place and supporting near term resolution of the issue (i.e. within the next 5 years) across the industry.
The Sandia National Laboratories, California (SNL/CA) site comprises approximately 410 acres and is located in the eastern portion of Livermore, Alameda County, California. The property is owned by the United States Department of Energy and is being operated by Sandia Corporation. The facility location is shown on the Site Map(s) in Appendix A. This Stormwater Pollution Prevention Plan (SWPPP) is designed to comply with California’s General Permit for Stormwater Discharges Associated with Industrial Activities (General Permit) Order No. 2014-0057-DWQ (NPDES No. CAS000001) issued by the State Water Resources Control Board (State Water Board) (Ref. 6.1). This SWPPP has been prepared following the SWPPP Template provided on the California Stormwater Quality Association Stormwater Best Management Practice Handbook Portal: Industrial and Commercial (CASQA 2014).
The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) has produced three carbon capture retrofit databases (CCRDs), which contain a collection of units selected from the power generation and industrial sources (IND) sectors located in the United States that are either in operating or standby status. The power generation category is subdivided into the post-combustion (PC) CCRD – containing coal-fired and atmospheric fluidized bed (AFB) units – and the natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) CCRD – containing natural gas-fired combined cycle and combined cycle single shaft units. The IND CCRD contains facilities from the ammonia, cement, ethanol, hydrogen, and natural gas processing industries. This report is intended to provide a general guide to the IND CCRD. Efforts have been made to ensure similarities between each of the CCRDs. However, as the sources of CO2 vary, differences will exist – most notably in the IND CCRD.
One in a series of Issue Papers addressing Electricity System Adequacy, this report focuses on Challenges Facing the Nuclear Power Industry. Early proclamations of a nuclear renaissance yield to predictions of the industry's decline, while proposed carbon regulations offer potential optimism to use nuclear as a clean energy source. Yet, nuclear plants are currently 'at-risk' of early retirement (for economic reasons) due to electricity market design issues and competition with low priced natural gas. Concerns are identified as baseload generation shifts from coal and nuclear to increasing natural gas and renewables which may impact on the reliability of the power system.
This technical presentation provides an update on the major trends that occurred in the solar industry in 2018 and the first quarter of 2019. Major topics of focus include costs and deployment, the global and U.S. supply and demand of PV, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.
Electricity markets are changing rapidly because of (1) the addition of wind and solar and (2) the goal of a low-carbon electricity grid. These changes result in times of high electricity prices and very low or negative electricity prices. California has seen its first month where more than 20% of the time (mid-day) the wholesale price of electricity was zero or negative. This creates large incentives for coupling heat storage to advanced reactors to enable variable electricity and industrial-heat output (to maximize revenue) while the reactor operates at base load (minimize cost). Recent studies have examined coupling various types of heat storage to Rankine and Brayton power cycles. However, there has been little examination of heat-storage options between (1) the reactor and (2) the power-conversion system or industrial customer. Heat-storage systems can be incorporated into sodium , helium-, and salt-cooled reactors. Salt-cooled reactors include the fluoride-salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (FHR) with its solid fuel and clean coolant and the molten salt reactor (MSR) with its fuel dissolved in the salt. For sodium and salt reactors, it is assumed that a heat-storage system would be in the secondary loop between the reactor and power cycle. For helium-cooled reactors, heat storage can be in the primary or secondary loop. This report is a first look at the rational and the heat storage options for deploying gigawatt-watt hour heat-storage systems with GenIV reactors. Economics and safety are the primary selection criteria. The leading heat-storage candidate for sodium-cooled systems (a low-pressure secondary system with small temperature drop across the reactor core) is sodium coolant stored in large steel tanks, with the coolant transferring heat in channels. The design minimizes sodium volume in the storage and, thus, the risks and costs associated with sodium. For helium systems (high-pressure with large temperature drop across the core), the leading heat storage options are (1) varying the temperature of the reactor core, (2) steel or alumina firebrick in a secondary pressure vessel and (3) nitrate or hot-rock/firebrick at atmospheric pressure. For salt systems (low pressure, high temperatures, and small temperature drop across the reactor core) the leading heat-storage systems are secondary salts. In each case, options are identified and questions to be addressed are identified. In some cases there is a strong coupling between the heat-storage technology and the power cycle. The leading sodium heat-storage technology may imply changes in the power cycle. High-temperature salt systems couple efficiency to Brayton power cycles that may create large incentives for the heat storage to remain within the power cycle rather than in any intermediate heat transfer loop.
This paper draws on a survey of wind industry professionals to clarify trends in the expected useful life of land-based wind power plants in the United States. The expected useful life of a project affects expectations about its profitability, the timing of possible decommissioning or repowering, and its levelized costs. We find that most wind project developers, sponsors and long-term owners have increased project-life assumptions over time, from a typical term of ~20 years in the early 2000s to ~25 years by the mid-2010s and ~30 years more recently. Current assumptions range from 25 to 40 years, with an average of 29.6 years. The estimated average levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for new wind projects built in 2018 is $\$ $40.4/MWh (real 2018$\$ $), assuming a 20-year project life. With a 25-year useful life and no change in assumed operations and maintenance (O&M) expenditures or wind plant performance over time, LCOE declines by 10%, to $\$ $36.2/MWh, because capital costs are recovered over five additional years of production. At the now-common 30-year assumed life, levelized costs decrease another 7%, to $\$ $33.5/MWh (under the same unaltered assumptions about O&M and performance). Even longer assumed lifetimes lead to further (but diminishing) LCOE reductions—e.g., to $\$ $31.7/MWh and $\$ $30.3/MWh for 35- and 40-year lives, respectively. The data and trends presented here may inform assumptions used by electric system planners, modelers and analysts. The results may also provide useful benchmarks to the wind industry, helping developers and assets owners to compare their expectations with those of their peers.
Radiabeam is building an industrial accelerator funded by the Defense Nuclear Detection Office in the Department of Homeland Security. The accelerator is designed as a radiation source for systems intended to find Special Nuclear Materials or contraband in cargo containers. Fermilab staff will travel to Radiabeam to help in commissioning of the accelerator. This work would primarily be focused on optimization of beam dynamics. In doing this, Fermilab would gain valuable general information about industrial linac operation and commissioning. Fermilab will also gain specific information about this new accelerator in support of a planned larger collaboration with Radiabeam.
This technical presentation provides an update on the major trends that occurred in the solar industry in the first three quarters of 2019. Major topics of focus include costs and deployment, the global and U.S. supply and demand of PV, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.
This presentation reviews the major trends that occurred in the solar industry in the Q3 and Q4 of 2019. Major topics of focus will be global and U.S. supply & demand, module & system price, investment trends, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.
The goal of this project was to develop an electrochemical process for depolymerization of biorefinery lignin to industrial chemicals, most notably as replacements in resins. The project team consisted of Ohio University (lead organization), Hexion, Inc. and Lakehead University. There were six distinct project tasks, consisting of Initial Validation, Development of TiO 2 Nanowire-supported Ni-Co Electrocatalysts, Electrochemical Characterization of TiO 2 Nanowire-supported Ni-Co Electrocatalysts, Development of Electrochemical Flow Reactor for Production of Industrial Chemicals and Hydrogen, Product Formulations and Integrated Biorefinery Analysis. The project was divided into two budget periods. After intermediate validation near the end of Budget Period 1, the project was discontinued. This final report is intended to highlight major project objectives and results. Technical metrics were developed between the project team and the DOE validation team during the initial validation period. Critical technical metrics included conversion of lignin to products and product selectivity. Desired products were low molecular weight aromatic compounds in the 150-300 MW range. We targeted this class of compounds because of their potential to replace petroleum derivatives in resin formulations. Electrochemical oxidation of biorefinery lignin can lead to significant lignin depolymerization and conversion, with >40% of the lignin reacted. However, product stream analysis is extremely difficult. We were not able to adequately quantify the concentration of the primary oxidation products, or to determine with any degree of certainty what the product selectivity was. The project team initially proposed analytical techniques such as GC-MS to identify product distributions. However, due to 1) difficulty in extracting products into an organic phase suitable for GC analysis and 2) the wide range of product compounds with similar structures, GC-MS analysis was difficult to perform. The project team did have some success with NMR spectroscopic analysis, but not enough so to adequately identify product selectivity. By UV-vis spectroscopy and statistical analysis, we were able to confirm achieving the technical milestone for lignin conversion, and achieved at least 40% conversion by the electrochemical oxidation technique. However, we were not able to confirm product selectivity using GC-MS analysis, as originally postulated. Despite these difficulties, we were able to incorporate the product stream into a resin, and observed better resin synthesis behavior using the oxidized lignin versus the unoxidized lignin. However, no resin synthesized with oxidized biorefinery lignin met the commercial standards for resin quality. One potential problem with electrochemical oxidation of biomass is the competing oxygen evolution reaction (OER) at the reactor anode. We observed that, especially at higher anode potentials, the OER can consume up to 50% of the energy input to the system, meaning that much of the energy goes toward generation of an essentially worthless product (O 2 ). However, we also observed that the OER can be avoided almost entirely at lower potentials. These uncertainties made assigning a value to the electrochemical reactor product stream difficult. Any product generated electrochemically would have to be valuable enough to offset the additional cost of electricity incurred, including electricity to run the electrochemical reactor and the additional electricity that must be purchased because some of the lignin (which is currently burned in biorefineries to recover energy) is diverted to the electrochemical reactor. It is not clear at this time whether the product stream has sufficient economic value to offset these additional electricity costs. The two most promising areas for this project in terms of demonstrating economic feasibility are product stream analysis and resin synthesis. In particular, product stream analysis has proven to be difficult. With additional time, we would refine analytical techniques to better understand key product stream characteristics, such as aromatic compound content. Evaluating the product streams in resin synthesis would likely provide more information on the economic value of the product stream. If we could determine that value, then we would be able to better evaluate whether the electrochemical conversion approach is feasible. The details of this work are presented in the following final report. The report is organized into individual tasks for clarity, although all tasks were integrated and many occurred simultaneously.
This paper draws on a survey of solar industry professionals and other sources to clarify trends in the expected useful life and operational expenditure (OpEx) of utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants in the United States. Solar project developers, sponsors, long-term owners, and consultants have increased project-life assumptions over time, from an average of ~21.5 years in 2007 to ~32.5 years in 2019. Current assumptions range from 25 years to more than 35 years depending on the organization; 17 out of 19 organizations surveyed or reviewed use 30 years or more. Levelized, lifetime OpEx estimates have declined from an average of ~$\$$35/kW DC -yr for projects built in 2007 to an average of ~$\$$17/kW DC -yr in 2019. Across 13 sources, the range in average lifetime OpEx for projects built in 2019 is broad, from $\$$13 to $\$$25/kW DC -yr. Operations and maintenance (O&M) costs—one component of OpEx—have declined precipitously in recent years, to $\$$5-8/kW DC -yr in many cases. Property taxes and land lease costs are highly variable across sites, but on average are—together—of similar magnitude. Other OpEx line items include security, insurance, and asset management. Given 2007-2009 values for not only project life and OpEx but also other drivers of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE, excluding the investment tax credit), the LCOE for utility-scale PV projects built from 2007 through 2009 averaged $\$$305 /MWh. Using 2019 values for all parameters yields an average LCOE of $\$$51 /MWh. The decline in LCOE from $\$$305 /MWh to $\$$51 /MWh was predominantly caused by reductions in up-front expenditures (and, to a much lesser extent, by changes in capacity factors, financing costs, and tax rates), but 9% ($\$$22 /MWh) of the overall decline is due to improvements in project life and OpEx. Project life extensions and OpEx reductions have had similarly sized impacts on LCOE over this period, at $\$$11 /MWh each. Had project life and OpEx not improved over the last decade, LCOE in 2019 would have instead been $\$$73 /MWh—43% higher. Given the limited quantity and comparability of previously available data on these cost drivers, the data and trends presented here may inform assumptions used by electric system planners, modelers, and analysts. The results may also provide useful benchmarks to the solar industry, helping developers and assets owners compare their expectations for project life and OpEx with those of their peers.