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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling framework for evaluating the impacts of hydrodynamic pressure on hydrologic exchange fluxes and residence time for a large-scale river section over a long-term period

Quantifying hydrologic exchange fluxes (HEF) at the river and subsurface interface and their residence times (RT) in subsurface are important for managing the water quality and ecosystem health in dynamic river corridor systems. In this study, a modeling framework is developed for coupling the three-dimensional (3D) multi-phase surface, subsurface flow transport, and numerical tracer model for RT in a large-scale river section over a long period. The framework is utilized to evaluate the impacts of hydrodynamic pressure on HEFs and RT for a 30 km section of the Columbia River in Washington State over a three-year period. Based on comparisons between model simulations with and without considering hydrodynamic pressure, we found that hydrodynamic pressure increases the net HEFs by 7% with river gaining water from the subsurface domain, and leads to slight reduction of RT.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessing Shifts in Regional Hydroclimatic Conditions of U.S. River Basins in Response to Climate Change over the 21st Century

Characterization of shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions helps reduce negative consequences on agriculture, environment, economy, society, and ecosystem. This study assesses shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions across the conterminous United States in response to climate change over the 21 st Century. The hydrological responses of five downscaled climate models from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) dataset ranging from the driest to wettest and least warm to hottest were simulated using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions at 8-digit hydrologic unit scale (HUC8) were evaluated by the magnitude and direction of movements in the Budyko space. HUC8 river basins were then clustered into seven unique hydroclimatic behavior groups using the K-means method. A tree classification method was proposed to illustrate the relationships between hydroclimatic behavior groups and regional characteristics. The results indicate that hydroclimatic responses may vary from a river basin to another, but basins in the same neighborhood follow a similar movement in the Budyko space. The systematic hydroclimatic behavior of river basins is highly associated with their regional landform, climate, and ecosystem characteristics. Most HUC8s with Mountain, Plateau and Basin landform types will likely experience less arid conditions. However, most HUC8s with Plain landform type behave differently according to the regional ecosystem and climate. This study provides a potential roadmap of shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions of U.S. river basins, which can be used to improve regional preparedness and ability of various sectors to mitigate or adapt to the impacts of future hydroclimate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1975

US Army Corps of Engineers program

The application of satellite remote sensing technology in hydrologic studies and regulatory programs of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is discussed. Site selection, location of construction material, environment impact assessment, analysis of hydrologic systems, reservoir system analysis, water quality, quantity and quality of runoff from urban areas, river hydraulics, and sediment movement are among the applications described. Emphasis is placed on introducing automatic classification of multispectral data into modeling techniques used in hydrologic studies.

Jarman, J.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Model Data Archive Associated with Manuscript "Fire-altered Carbon Pools Create Disturbance Memory in Stream Dissolved Organic Carbon"

This data package supports the publication “Fire-altered Carbon Pools Create Disturbance Memory in Stream Dissolved Organic Carbon” by Li et al. (2026). The package contains processed model inputs, configuration files, restart files, simulation outputs, scripts, and visualization products used to evaluate post-fire dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics in the Naches River Watershed, Washington, USA, following the 2021 Schneider Springs Fire. The modeling workflow couples ELM-BGC, the biogeochemistry-enabled Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model; ATS, the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator for integrated surface-subsurface hydrology; and PFLOTRAN, a reactive transport model for multicomponent aqueous geochemistry. Together, these models simulate how wildfire-induced changes in vegetation, litter, coarse woody debris, and soil organic matter influence DOC production, transport, and reaction from burned hillslopes to stream networks. The archive includes preprocessed meteorological, geospatial, hydrologic, and biogeochemical forcing data; ELM-BGC-derived DOC source terms; ATS mesh files; PFLOTRAN reactive-transport inputs; model configuration files; spin-up and transient restart files; watershed-scale diagnostic outputs; stream concentration time series; and figures or visualization files used to inspect and reproduce key results. File types include Hierarchical Data Format 5 (HDF5) files for gridded forcing and model-coupling data, model input and configuration files for ELM-BGC, ATS, and PFLOTRAN, restart and simulation-output files generated by the modeling workflow, tabular or time-series diagnostic outputs, scripts for post-processing and figure generation, and image or visualization products associated with the manuscript. Use of the package depends on the intended task. Re-running the simulations requires the relevant modeling software, including ELM-BGC, ATS, and PFLOTRAN as ATS's geochemical engine. Inspecting outputs and reproducing figures requires Python with scientific plotting libraries such as Matplotlib, and three-dimensional model outputs may be viewed with ParaView. Geographic information system files or maps may be inspected with ArcGIS Pro or comparable GIS software. The data package is intended to enable traceability, reuse, and partial reproduction of the coupled land-to-watershed hydro-biogeochemical modeling workflow used to test how wildfire disturbance affects terrestrial carbon pools and downstream DOC dynamics.

ATS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Simulated hydrological dynamics and coupled iron redox cycling impact methane production in an Arctic soil: Modeling Archive

This Modeling Archive is in support of an NGEE Arctic publication "Simulated hydrological dynamics and coupled iron redox cycling impact methane production in an Arctic soil" in the Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences. We simulated biogeochemical cycling in arctic soils using the PFLOTRAN geochemical model combined with measurements from previous NGEE Arctic incubations of polygonal permafrost soils in northern Alaska (Zheng et al., 2018). Simulated iron cycling, carbon dioxide production, and methane production were compared with incubation measurements and the parameterized model was then used to simulate coupled iron and carbon cycling over repeated oxic-anoxic cycles at different levels of carbon substrate availability and pH. The most recent data version (2.0) in the archive incorporates changes to the model and simulations as suggested by reviewers during the manuscript review process. These changes include an updated parameterization of the model; a new set of simulations omitting the iron cycle for direct evaluation of how iron cycle processes affect modeled outcomes; and a set of simulations testing different scenarios of carbon substrate availability in addition to scenarios of initial soil pH. This archive contains simulation code, model output, and analysis code for PFLOTRAN simulations. All scripts are python except the batch script for submitting multiprocessor jobs. Note that the model also requires compiled versions of the Alquimia interface and the NGEE Arctic fork of the PFLOTRAN geochemical simulator (see the README_INSTALL document for basic instructions). The Output directory contains eight data files in netCDF format generated by the model. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a 10-year research effort (2012-2022) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1995

Completing below-ground carbon budgets for pastures, recovering forests, and mature forests of Amazonia

This progress report covers the following efforts initiated for the year: year-round monthly soil CO2 flux measurements were started in both primary and secondary forests and in managed and degraded pastures; root sorting and weighing has begun and all four ecosystems at Paragominas have been analyzed through samples; regional modeling of soil water dynamics and minimum rooting depth has been done and the RADAMBRASIL soils database has been digitized and a 20 year record of the precipitation for the region has been produced, along with a hydrological ('bucket-tipping') model that will run within a GIS framework; prototype tension lysimeters have been designed and installed in soil pits to begin assessing the importance of DOC as a source of organic matter in deep soils; and many publications, listed in this document, have resulted from this year's research. Two of the papers published are included with this annual report document.

Davidson, Eric A.↗

DOE OSTI2020

E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility GoldSim System Model

This report documents the development of the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (ELLWF) trench system model. The GoldSim® Monte Carlo simulation software is utilized to model the release and transport of radiological inventory disposed (both currently and in the future) within Engineered and Slit Trenches. This model is in support of the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for the ELLWF Performance Assessment. The ELLWF system model utilizes a hybrid-approach to accurately describe the disposal system. The Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance model provides the infiltration data to both PORFLOW and GoldSim. PORFLOW is used to calibrate the GoldSim model to ensure confidence in the stochastic results. Finally, the concentrations from GoldSim transport simulations are fed into the SRNL Dose Toolkit to calculate dose impacts and assess plume interaction

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Snow Dynamics and Stable Water Isotopes Across Mountain Landscapes

Abstract A coupled hydrologic and snowpack stable water isotope model assesses controls on isotopic inputs across a mountainous basin. Annually, the most depleted isotope conditions occur in the upper subalpine where snow accumulation is high, and rainfall is low. Snowmelt isotopic evolution over time indicates fractionation processes account for <25% snowmelt enrichment. Meltwater isotopic inputs are largely determined by controls on the amount, phase and isotopic mass of precipitation coincident with the ablation period. Effect of vapor loss from the snowpack on d‐excess in snowmelt is a balance between energy and snow‐availability. It is highest above treeline, and in the grass and aspen‐dominated portions of the upper montane where vegetation shading is low. Deep snowpack in conifer forests limit the influence of vapor loss in the subalpine. Wet years reduce the effects of vapor loss on snowmelt across the basin, except in the lower montane where added snowfall bolsters snow‐limited conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simulation of hydropower at subcontinental to global scales: a state-of-the-art review

Abstract Hydroelectric power is playing a new and often expanded role in the world’s major power grids, offering low carbon generating capacity in industrializing, dam-building economies while providing reserve and flexibility to co-manage fledgling wind and solar resources in high income countries. Driven by river flows, conventional hydropower is exposed to the vagaries of weather and climate, motivating drought and climate change hydropower impact studies at large spatial scales. Here we review methods of climate-driven hydropower simulation at large spatial scales, specifically multi-basin regions to global. We identify four types of approach based on complexity of tools and richness of data applied to the problem. Since the earliest attempts to model climate-driven hydropower at continental scale almost two decades ago, the field has transitioned from one of scientific curiosity to practical application, with studies increasingly motivated by the need to inform power grid expansion planning and operation. As the hydrological and water management models used in large-scale hydropower studies become more sophisticated, new opportunities will emerge to study the impacts of changing hydropower on power system reliability and performance at large power grid scale. To grasp these opportunities, the water resources community must continue to enhance data and models for representing river flows and anthropogenic water use and management at subcontinental to global scales.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2011

Validation and Verification of Operational Land Analysis Activities at the Air Force Weather Agency

Shaw, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2012

Validation and Verification of Operational Land Analysis Activities at the Air Force Weather Agency

The NASA developed Land Information System (LIS) is the Air Force Weather Agency's (AFWA) operational Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) combining real time precipitation observations and analyses, global forecast model data, vegetation, terrain, and soil parameters with the community Noah land surface model, along with other hydrology module options, to generate profile analyses of global soil moisture, soil temperature, and other important land surface characteristics. (1) A range of satellite data products and surface observations used to generate the land analysis products (2) Global, 1/4 deg spatial resolution (3) Model analysis generated at 3 hours. AFWA recognizes the importance of operational benchmarking and uncertainty characterization for land surface modeling and is developing standard methods, software, and metrics to verify and/or validate LIS output products. To facilitate this and other needs for land analysis activities at AFWA, the Model Evaluation Toolkit (MET) -- a joint product of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Developmental Testbed Center (NCAR DTC), AFWA, and the user community -- and the Land surface Verification Toolkit (LVT), developed at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), have been adapted to operational benchmarking needs of AFWA's land characterization activities.

Shaw, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2020

Integrated Model of Models for Global Flood Alerting

A dramatic increase in frequency of minor to major flooding since 2000 has caused significant economic losses across the world. To mitigate and recover from these losses, actions have been taken to build resilient communities and infrastructures, specifically, by providing situational awareness in near real-time about flood impacts to enhance response and recovery efforts. Several hydrologic and hydraulic flood models are available at various spatial and temporal resolutions to forecast flood events at regional to global scale. Given the global coverage of two operational flood models – GloFAS (Global Flood Awareness System) and GFMS (Global Flood Monitoring System), the purpose of this project is to implement a Model of Models (MoM) approach to integrate the outputs from these two models to classify flood severity at watershed level worldwide, and send alerts based on severity similar to the USGS PAGER (used for severity alerting and impact analysis for earthquakes) to flood impacted communities. The alerts containing flood impacts and severity information will be disseminated through the DisasterAWARE platform, operated by the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC), that provides global multi-hazard alerting and Situational Awareness information to the emergency management community and public. The current version of the MoM approach was implemented for a case study flood event that occurred during January and February of 2020 in South and Central Africa. The findings of the case study event reveal that the approach is effective in identifying potential flood impact areas and the spatio-temporal variation of flood severity, flood depth and extent at watershed level, which will be used to assess infrastructure and societal impacts using earth-observation data and for alerting.

Kar, Bandana↗

NASA NTRS1982

Combining remotely sensed and other measurements for hydrologic areal averages

A method is described for combining measurements of hydrologic variables of various sampling geometries and measurement accuracies to produce an estimated mean areal value over a watershed and a measure of the accuracy of the mean areal value. The method provides a means to integrate measurements from conventional hydrological networks and remote sensing. The resulting areal averages can be used to enhance a wide variety of hydrological applications including basin modeling. The correlation area method assigns weights to each available measurement (point, line, or areal) based on the area of the basin most accurately represented by the measurement. The statistical characteristics of the accuracy of the various measurement technologies and of the random fields of the hydrologic variables used in the study (water equivalent of the snow cover and soil moisture) required to implement the method are discussed.

Johnson, E. R.↗

NASA NTRS2020

An Integrated Model of Models for Global Flood Alerting

A dramatic increase in frequency of minor to major flooding since 2000 has caused significant damage to infrastructure and economic losses across the world. To mitigate and recover from these losses, actions have been taken to build resilient communities and infrastructures. Situational awareness in near real-time is essential to ensure community resilience and enhance response and recovery efforts. Several hydrologic and hydraulic flood models are available at various spatial and temporal resolutions at regional to global scale. Given the global coverage of two operational flood models - GloFAS (Global Flood Awareness System) and GFMS (Global Flood Monitoring System), the first component of this project first focuses on integrating the outputs from these two models to classify flood severity and send alerts based on potential for impacts similar to the USGS PAGER (used for severity alerting and impact analysis for earthquakes). The second component of the project focuses on using flood outputs derived from earth observation data to validate, update and add additional exposure and impact products to flood alerts. The flood impacts and severity information will be disseminated as alerts and maps through the DisasterAWARE platform, operated by the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC), that provides global multi-hazard alerting and Situational Awareness information to the emergency management community and public. In this presentation, the following objectives will be covered: (i) the effective integration of the flood models, (ii) accuracy of the flood model outputs (flood extent and depth) for specific flood events both in the United States and globally in comparison with each other and earth observation data.

Glasscoe, Margaret↗

NASA NTRS2020

Improved Groundwater Table and L-Band Brightness Temperature Estimates for Northern Hemisphere Peatlands Using New Model Physics and SMOS Observations in a Global Data Assimilation Framework

There is an urgent need to include northern peatland hydrology in global Earth system models to better understand land-atmosphere interactions and sensitivities of peatland functions to climate change, and, ultimately, to improve climate change predictions. In this study, we introduced for the first time peatland-specific model physics into an assimilation scheme for L-band brightness temperature (Tb) data from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission to improve groundwater table estimates. We conducted two sets of model-only and data assimilation experiments using the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), applying (over peatlands only) in one of them a peatland-specific adaptation (PEATCLSM). The evaluation against in-situ measurements of peatland groundwater table depth indicates the superiority of PEATCLSM model physics and additionally improved performance after assimilating SMOS Tb observations. The better performance of PEATCLSM over nearly all Northern Hemisphere peatlands is further supported by the better agreement between SMOS Tb observations and Tb estimates from the model-only and data assimilation runs. Within the data assimilation scheme, PEATCLSM reduces Tb observation-minus-forecast residuals and leads to reduced data assimilation updates of water storage components and, thus, reduced water budget imbalances in the assimilation system.

SMOS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Investigation of Scale-Dependent Groundwater/Surface-water Exchange in Rivers by Gradient Self-Potential Logging: Numerical Modeling and Field Experiments

Exchanges of groundwater and surface-water are fundamental to a wide range of water-supply and water-quality management issues but challenging to map beyond the reach scale. Waterborne gradient self-potential (SP) measurements are directly sensitive to water flow through riverbed sediments and can be used to infer exchange locations, direction (gain versus loss), scale, and relative changes, but to date applications to river corridor hydrology are limited. Numerical modeling and field experiments were therefore performed herein, each emphasizing waterborne gradient SP logging for identifying and locating focused vertical groundwater discharge (surface-water gain) and recharge (surface-water loss) in a river. Two and three-dimensional numerical models were constructed to simulate the polarities, appearances, and peak amplitudes of streaming-potential and electric-field anomalies on a riverbed and in the surface-water that were attributable to steady-state vertical fluxes of groundwater through high-permeability conduits in the riverbed. Effects of varied hydraulic length-scale of exchange and surface-water depth were tested through numerical modeling. Modeling results aided in data acquisition and interpretation for three repeated field experiments performed along a 1.5–2.0 km reach of the Quashnet River in Cape Cod, Massachusetts, where focused, meter-scale groundwater discharges occur at discrete locations within otherwise ubiquitous and more diffuse groundwater upwelling conditions. Strong gradient SP anomalies were repeatedly measured in the Quashnet River at previously confirmed locations of focused groundwater discharge, showing the efficacy of waterborne gradient SP logging in identifying and characterizing groundwater/surface water exchange dynamics at multiple river network scales.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2026

Unprecedented Shifts in Hydrology Are Emerging Across California's Critical Basins: An Evaluation From 0.5 to 3.5°C

With advances in climate models and downscaling techniques, stakeholders anticipate high-resolution analysis to inform regional to local changes in water management. Here, we produce hydrologic projections from an ensemble of Earth System Models (ESMs) that were selected and downscaled to support California's 5th Climate Assessment. An ensemble of 19 ESMs was downscaled to a 3-km resolution across California using a statistical-dynamical downscaling approach and subsequently run through two calibrated hydrology models. Although California has been extensively studied in the context of climate change, we provide the first evaluation of the warming thresholds at which hydroclimate metrics demonstrate statistically significant shifts. We show that present-day to near-term warming levels in Klamath and Northern Sierra Nevada basins, which serve as a critical source of water for California, show statistically significant decreases in snowfall and peak snowpack and associated decreases in summer snowmelt and runoff. More generally, shifts in these hydroclimate metrics occur for intermediate elevation basins ranging from 1,315 to 1,455 m (4,314.3–4,773.6 ft), while the warming level of emergence is delayed for lower and higher elevation basins. We also find that several basins already demonstrate significant increases in 5- to 100-year runoff intensities, primarily due to the increasing influence of precipitation falling as rain. Hydroclimate metrics with trends that demonstrate near-term warming levels of emergence are reflected in reanalysis-based observations, suggesting California is entering a fundamentally different hydroclimate regime. While this will likely stress California's water management, the research provided can support when to implement adaptation efforts.

Bass, B. [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (Un↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Global‐Mean Precipitation Response to CO 2 ‐Induced Warming in CMIP6 Models

Abstract We examine the response of globally averaged precipitation to global warming—the hydrologic sensitivity (HS)—in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) multi‐model ensemble. Multi‐model mean HS is 2.5% K −1 (ranging from 2.1–3.1% K −1 across models), a modest decrease compared to CMIP5 (where it was 2.6% K −1 ). This new set of simulations is used as an out‐of‐sample test for observational constraints on HS proposed based on CMIP5. The constraint based on clear‐sky shortwave absorption sensitivity to water vapor has weakened, and it is argued that a proposed constraint based on surface low cloud longwave radiative effects does not apply to HS. Finally, while a previously proposed mechanism connecting HS and climate sensitivity via low clouds is present in the CMIP6 ensemble, it is not an important factor for variations in HS. This explains why HS is uncorrelated with climate sensitivity across the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles.

Pendergrass, A. G.↗