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DOE OSTI2026

IAM-FIRE: a Climate Emulator–Based Framework to Project Wildfire Impacts and Risks for Integrated Assessment Models

Most Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) underrepresent dynamic feedbacks from climate-driven disturbances such as wildfires, potentially overestimating the permanence of land-based carbon sinks. In particular, representing the impacts of forest fires is becoming increasingly important, as these are expected to intensify in the coming years. We introduce IAM-FIRE (Integrated Assessment Model – Fire Impacts & Risks Emulator), a novel framework that enables the projection of wildfire burned area (BA) and carbon emissions (CE) directly from IAM outputs. IAM-FIRE combines a spatial climate emulator, land-use downscaling, vegetation productivity modelling, and an empirical fire model to generate global annual wildfire impacts for arbitrary socioeconomic and emissions scenarios at 0.5° resolution for the period 2020–2100. Calibrated against GFEDv5 observations and using inputs from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), we report projections BA and CE derived from IAM-FIRE for four scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-6.6 and SSP5-7.6. The model reproduces historical global trends for total BA, including the observed global decline since the early 2000s, and for forest BA. Projected fire trajectories differ strongly among scenarios: total BA range from declines under SSP1-2.6 (-3.36 Mha yr-1) to increases under SSP3-6.6 (+1.6 Mha yr-1). Corresponding total CE show a similar divergence ranging from -15 to +10.6 TgC yr-1. Socioeconomic development exerts a dominant suppressing effect on wildfire impacts while climate change and CO2-driven increases in vegetation productivity amplify fire risk, particularly under high-emissions pathways. Compared with CMIP6 fire-enabled Earth System Models, IAM-FIRE exhibits greater sensitivity to radiative forcing and a stronger role for human-driven fire suppression, highlighting substantial structural uncertainties in future fire projections. By providing a computationally efficient and internally consistent approach to represent wildfire impacts within IAMs, IAM-FIRE enables systematic exploration of fire–climate–land feedbacks and supports improved assessments of mitigation permanence and climate risks in future integrated scenarios.

Rouhette, Theo↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spread spectrum time domain reflectometry (SSTDR) and frequency domain reflectometry (FDR) cable inspection using machine learning

Cables are initially qualified for nuclear power plant use for 40 years. As plants extend their operating license to 60 and 80 years, justification for continued cable use must shift to a condition-based approach since it is cost prohibitive to completely replace cables that are likely still capable of performing their design function. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Accelerated and Real Time Experimental Nodal Analysis (ARENA) cable motor test bed was used to test the response of a commercial spread spectrum time domain reflectometry (SSTDR) system, a laboratory instrument software-controlled SSTDR, and a vector network analyzer-based frequency domain reflectometry (FDR) system to various cable anomalies. The three instrument systems were able to interrogate cables over a range of frequency bandwidths that can be helpful for human data analysis. Data were subjected to supervised and unsupervised machine learning (ML) analyses to distinguish normal undamaged cable responses from anomalous cable responses. Both supervised and unsupervised ML approaches produced encouraging results with an undamaged/anomalous prediction accuracy from 0.69% to 0.87%. Recommendations for further development and field implementation include increased and more balanced sample sets particularly including more training data.

SSTDR, FDR, Reflectometry, Machine Learning, ARENA↗

DOE OSTI2020

Impact of simultaneous activities on frequency fluctuations — comprehensive analyses based on the real measurement data from FNET/GridEye

Simultaneous human activities such as the Super Bowl game would cause certain impacts on frequency fluctuations in power systems. With the help of FNET/GridEye measurements, this work aims to give comprehensive analyses on the frequency fluctuations during Super Bowl LIV held on Feb. 2, 2020, so as to better understand several phenomena caused by simultaneous activities and help system operation and control. First, recent developments of FNET/GridEye are introduced briefly. Second, the frequency fluctuations of Eastern Interconnection (EI), western electricity coordinating council (WECC), and electric reliability council of Texas (ERCOT) power systems during Super Bowl LIV are analyzed. Third, frequency fluctuations of Super Bowl Sunday and ordinary Sundays in 2020 are compared. Finally, the differences of frequency fluctuations among different years during the Super Bowl and their change trend are also given. Furthermore, several possible explanations including the simultaneity of electricity consumption at the beginning of commercial breaks and the halftime show, the increasing usage of the Internet, and the increasing size of TV screens are illustrated in detail in this work.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comprehensive Evaluation of Agrivoltaics Research: Breadth, Depth, and Insights for Future Research

Agrivoltaics integrates agricultural production with solar energy generation to address challenges related to land use, food security, and renewable energy development. This study provides the most comprehensive evaluation to date of global agrivoltaic research, aiming to classify the literature, identify strengths and gaps, and guide future work. We systematically screened over 3000 English-language publications through 2023 for relevant agrivoltaic publications. A total of 670 studies were categorized in the InSPIRE Data Portal across five agrivoltaic activities and multiple hierarchical themes, including physical, biological, technological, social, and crosscutting domains. We found that research was concentrated on crop production, microclimate dynamics, and PV performance, with gaps in areas like human health, wildlife, policy, and standardized methodologies. Although the U.S. emphasizes animal grazing and habitat-based systems in practice, most U.S.-based studies focused disproportionately on crop production. The analysis revealed uneven geographic and topical representation and highlighted a lack of integrated, interdisciplinary approaches. This study concludes that while agrivoltaic research has grown rapidly, more coordinated efforts could support standardized data collection, address overlooked ecological and social impacts, and align research focus with real-world system implementation, ultimately improving the scalability and successful deployment of agrivoltaic systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of E3SM land model snow simulations over the western United States

Abstract. Seasonal snow has crucial impacts on climate, ecosystems, and humans, but it is vulnerable to global warming. The land component (ELM) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) mechanistically simulates snow processes from accumulation, canopy interception, compaction, and snow aging to melt. Although high-quality field measurements, remote sensing snow products, and data assimilation products with high spatio-temporal resolution are available, there has been no systematic evaluation of the snow properties and phenology in ELM. This study comprehensively evaluates ELM snow simulations over the western United States at 0.125∘ resolution during 2001–2019 using the Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) in situ networks, MODIS remote sensing products (i.e., MCD43 surface albedo product), the spatially and temporally complete (STC) snow-covered area and grain size (MODSCAG) and MODIS dust and radiative forcing in snow (MODDRFS) products (STC-MODSCAG/STC-MODDRFS), and the snow property inversion from remote sensing (SPIReS) product and two data assimilation products of snow water equivalent and snow depth – i.e., University of Arizona (UA) and SNOw Data Assimilation System (SNODAS). Overall the ELM simulations are consistent with the benchmarking datasets and reproduce the spatio-temporal patterns, interannual variability, and elevation gradients for different snow properties including snow cover fraction (fsno), surface albedo (αsur) over snow cover regions, snow water equivalent (SWE), and snow depth (Dsno). However, there are large biases of fsno with dense forest cover and αsur in the Rocky Mountains and Sierra Nevada in winter, compared to the MODIS products. There are large discrepancies of snow albedo, snow grain size, and light-absorbing particle-induced snow albedo reduction between ELM and the MODIS products, attributed to uncertainties in the aerosol forcing data, snow aging processes in ELM, and remote sensing retrievals. Against UA and SNODAS, ELM has a mean bias of −20.7 mm (−35.9 %) and −20.4 mm (−35.5 %), respectively, for spring, and −13.8 mm (−27.8 %) and −10.2 mm (−22.2 %), respectively, for winter. ELM shows a relatively high correlation with SNOTEL SWE, with mean correlation coefficients of 0.69 but negative mean biases of −122.7 mm. Compared to the snow phenology of STC-MODSCAG and SPIReS, ELM shows delayed snow accumulation onset dates by 17.3 and 12.4 d, earlier snow end dates by 35.5 and 26.8 d, and shorter snow durations by 52.9 and 39.5 d, respectively. This study underscores the need for diagnosing model biases and improving ELM representations of snow properties and snow phenology in mountainous areas for more credible simulation and future projection of mountain snowpack.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data Centers and Digital Assurance Workshop 2 – Prioritizing Digital Assurance Challenges, Session 2

The second session of the TADA (Technical Assistance for Digital Assurance) Data Centers Cohort, held on November 10, 2025, focused on prioritizing digital assurance challenges at the intersection of data centers and the electric grid. Building on the foundational concepts introduced in Workshop 1, this session deepened the application of the Threat–Vulnerability–Consequence (TVC) framework and emphasized the urgency of addressing cybersecurity, supply chain integrity, and operational reliability. Participants explored the growing convergence of digital and physical systems, the expanding attack surface due to global supply chain dependencies, and the implications of AI-driven load behavior. Real-world incidents—including the Volt Typhoon campaign and vulnerabilities in Solarman and Deye platforms—were analyzed to illustrate the risks of unpatched systems, insecure APIs, and inadequate vendor oversight. Key themes included architecture and interface weaknesses, governance gaps, and human and procedural shortcomings. The workshop also examined the evolving regulatory landscape, highlighting new federal mandates around Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) compliance and large-load reliability standards. Through interactive exercises, stakeholders ranked and mapped digital assurance risks from their respective perspectives—utilities, operators, and vendors—laying the groundwork for mitigation strategies and shared accountability models to be developed in Workshop 3. Session 2 of 3.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Using Machine Learning Algorithm to Detect Blowing Snow and Fog in Antarctica Based on Ceilometer and Surface Meteorology Systems

Blowing snow is a common weather phenomenon in Antarctica and plays an important role in the water vapor cycle and ice sheet mass balance. Although it has a significant impact on the climate of Antarctica, people do not know much about this process. Fog events are difficult to distinguish from blowing snow events using existing detection algorithms by a ceilometer. In this study, based on ceilometer, the meteorological parameters observed by surface meteorology systems are further combined to detect blowing snow and fog using the AdaBoost algorithm. The weather phenomena recorded by human observers are ‘true’. The dataset is collected from 1 January 2016 to 31 December 2016 at the AWARE site. Among them, three-quarters of the data are used as the training set and the rest of the data as the testing set. The classification accuracy of the proposed algorithm for the testing set is about 94%. Compared with the Loeb method, the proposed algorithm can detect 89.12% of blowing snow events and 76.10% of fog events, while the Loeb method can only identify 64.29% of blowing snow events and 31.87% of fog events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhanced Safety of Heavy-Duty Vehicles on Highways through Automatic Speed Enforcement – A Simulation Study

Highway safety remains a significant concern, especially in mixed traffic scenarios involving heavy-duty vehicles (HDV) and smaller passenger cars. The vulnerability of HDVs following closely behind smaller cars is evident in incidents involving the lead vehicle, potentially leading to catastrophic rear-end collisions. Here, this paper explores how automatic speed enforcement systems, using speed cameras, can mitigate risks for HDVs in such critical situations. While historical crash data consistently demonstrates the reduction of accidents near speed cameras, this paper goes beyond the conventional notion of crash occurrence reduction. Instead, it investigates the profound impact of driver behavior changes within desired travel speed distribution, especially around speed cameras, and their contribution to the safety of trailing vehicles, with a specific focus on heavy-duty trucks in accident-prone scenarios. To conduct this analysis, we utilize SUMO, an open-source microscopic traffic simulator, enabling realistic simulations of real-world driving behaviors with and without speed cameras. The simulations also consider empirical distributions of desired headway gaps and reaction times exhibited by human drivers. This study offers a fresh perspective on highway safety by examining how the influence of automatic speed enforcement systems on driver behavior enhances the safety of HDV when faced with challenging situations. By shedding light on these dynamics, we contribute valuable insights to the ongoing research efforts on using technology to create safer roadways, ultimately promoting safer coexistence between heavy-duty and passenger vehicles.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data analysis and modeling pipelines for controlled networked social science experiments

There is large interest in networked social science experiments for understanding human behavior at-scale. Significant effort is required to perform data analytics on experimental outputs and for computational modeling of custom experiments. Moreover, experiments and modeling are often performed in a cycle, enabling iterative experimental refinement and data modeling to uncover interesting insights and to generate/refute hypotheses about social behaviors. The current practice for social analysts is to develop tailor-made computer programs and analytical scripts for experiments and modeling. This often leads to inefficiencies and duplication of effort. In this work, we propose a pipeline framework to take a significant step towards overcoming these challenges. Our contribution is to describe the design and implementation of a software system to automate many of the steps involved in analyzing social science experimental data, building models to capture the behavior of human subjects, and providing data to test hypotheses. The proposed pipeline framework consists of formal models, formal algorithms, and theoretical models as the basis for the design and implementation. We propose a formal data model, such that if an experiment can be described in terms of this model, then our pipeline software can be used to analyze data efficiently. The merits of the proposed pipeline framework is elaborated by several case studies of networked social science experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

WISP: Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies (Final Technical Report)

The complex interdependencies of cyber systems (sensors and communications), physical grids and associated electricity market operations make protecting electric power grids a significant challenge. The energy sector is constantly under new, targeted, advanced and dangerous cyber-attacks that have the potential to result in the loss of human life. These threats are further exacerbated by our need to modernize the grid. One focus of cyber security research in smart grids is the securing of the SCADA system through advanced intrusion detection systems (IDS) and bad data detection algorithms in state estimation. These methods either require full knowledge of the system topology and parameters or fail to understand the physical behaviors under attack. WISP (Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies) is designed to provide additional protection to the power grid using only publicly available data. In particular, WISP exploits the spatio-temporal nature of the real time locational marginal prices (LMPs), in conjunction with other information such as bids, weather, outages and load data to analyze anomalous power pricing behaviors and then correlate those observations to localize regions of interest and identify potential cyber events. WISP is non-intrusive as the tool is deployed as a service in the Cloud or on premise and provides reliable information to system operators for enhanced situational awareness, without impeding energy delivery functions. The WISP technology comprises three modules: the data-driven anomaly detection core, the vulnerability and risk analysis and the root cause analysis. The data-driven anomaly detection core performs the tasks of feature selection, anomaly detection and attack region localization. The vulnerability and risk analysis module provides system level information of the vulnerable variables and times, assisting the operators in selecting monitoring and protection nodes. The root cause analysis module takes the detection results and identifies potential operational conditions that contribute to the detected anomalies. In Phase I, we have demonstrated the feasibility and effectiveness of WISP. We developed a realistic electricity market simulator capable of generating normal and attack market data under various operational conditions. We developed a series of cyber-attack detection and analysis algorithms and evaluated them under multiple data sources. Finally, we integrated all modules into an end-to-end software, providing functions for data management, data analytics and visualization. Specifically, we have achieved: (i) real-time data acceptance from external utility interfaces with >99% acceptance rate; (ii) high performance anomaly detection algorithms with >98% detection accuracy and <0.1% false alarm rate; and (iii) ultra-low computing delay <50 milliseconds. Additionally, our team developed algorithms to identify the vulnerable variables in electricity market operations and root cause analysis functions to identify major contributors to the price spikes. These ancillary modules are necessary when deploying WISP in real world industry environment. In Phase II, we have demonstrated the effectiveness of WISP software on realistic largescale power systems. We performed red team testing for the Phase I WISP software and identified software vulnerabilities and implemented corresponding mitigation solutions. We adapted the electricity market simulator for the Texas synthetic 2000-bus system and generated datasets for the false data injection attacks. We created database and visualization interfaces for the Texas system and the ISO New England system. We performed software optimization in terms of operation efficiency, computing speed and detection accuracy. Finally, we tested the software on the Texas system and the ISO New England system and evaluated the detection performance. Overall, we achieved above 89% detection rate, below 3% false alarm rate and below 37 seconds of end-to-end detection delay.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advanced Reactor Safeguards & Security Program: Cybersecurity Scenarios

The use of digital control systems and automation in advanced nuclear power systems introduces different types of vulnerabilities compared to legacy (i.e. analog) control systems that cyber adversaries can exploit. These vulnerabilities pose a challenge to reactor operators and cyber operations staff due to the dynamic nature of the event in which a human response or a lack of response can potentially evolve into a worsening plant condition. Using the Department of Homeland Security Cyber and Infrastructure Security Agency’s (CISA) critical infrastructure exercise framework, this document presents several cyber security scenarios typical of digital control systems that could be used in advanced reactor designs. These scenarios can be used in tabletop exercises to evaluate cyber security posture or conduct training on different aspects of cyber security, including detection, threat hunting using indicators of compromise, evaluating incident response, risk mitigation, incident reporting, information sharing and recovery.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Developing a sustainability science approach for water systems

We convened a workshop to enable scientists who study water systems from both social science and physical science perspectives to develop a shared language. This shared language is necessary to bridge a divide between these disciplines’ different conceptual frameworks. As a result of this workshop, we argue that we should view socio-hydrological systems as structurally co-constituted of social, engineered, and natural elements and study the “characteristic management challenges” that emerge from this structure and reoccur across time, space, and socioeconomic contexts. This approach is in contrast to theories that view these systems as separately conceptualized natural and social domains connected by bi-directional feedbacks, as is prevalent in much of the water systems research arising from the physical sciences. A focus on emergent characteristic management challenges encourages us to go beyond searching for evidence of feedbacks and instead ask questions such as: What types of innovations have successfully been used to address these challenges? What structural components of the system affect its resilience to hydrological events and through what mechanisms? Are there differences between successful and unsuccessful strategies to solve one of the characteristic management challenges? If so, how are these differences affected by institutional structure and ecological and economic contexts? To answer these questions, social processes must now take center stage in the study and practice of water management. We also argue that water systems are an important class of coupled systems with relevance for sustainability science because they are particularly amenable to the kinds of systematic comparisons that allow knowledge to accumulate. Indeed, the characteristic management challenges we identify are few in number and recur over most of human history and in most geographical locations. This recurrence should allow us to accumulate knowledge to answer the above questions by studying the long historical record of institutional innovations to manage water systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Methods integrating innate and adaptive immune responses in human in vitro immunization assays

Rapid vaccine development and innovative immunotherapeutics are critical in the fight against emerging outbreaks and global pandemic threats, yet the high costs and prolonged timelines for developing new vaccines underscore the urgent need for robust, predictive pre-clinical testing platforms. The rapid down-selection of vaccine candidates and identification of optimal vaccine formulations can be performed using human in vitro immunization (IVI) assays that recapitulate the complex interactions of the innate and adaptive human immune response. In this review, we present a comprehensive evaluation of three key IVI platforms: the whole blood assay (WBA), monocyte-derived dendritic cell (MoDC) assay with dendritic cell-T cell interface assay (DTI), and the microphysiological human tissue construct assay (HTC). The WBA offers a cost-effective and straightforward approach, while the MoDC + DTI system represents the current gold standard for balancing experimental efficiency with immunological complexity. The HTC assay, by mimicking both spatial and temporal aspects of immune interactions, provides enhanced physiological relevance. We discuss the methodological advantages and limitations of each platform, explore their roles in rapid vaccine candidate screening, and propose strategies for integrating these assays with complementary in vivo models. These insights pave the way for refining IVI assays and accelerating the translational pipeline for next-generation vaccines and immunotherapies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

HOP and Cybersecurity: Leveraging safety and reliability experience to improve digital security culture

This presentation will introduce participants to key mental models on how to think about and understand safety and the organizational attributes that support it from three of the leading voices in the discipline – David Marx, Dr. Erik Hollnagel and Dr. Todd Conklin – and from there we ask the simple question of “how can we apply this to cybersecurity?” Opportunities, similarities, and differences from the history of accomplishment applying human and organizational performance principles to safety and reliability can be collectively leveraged to the meet the challenge of cybersecurity for OT/ICS/cyber-physical systems. This is the same intent as the "Cybersecurity Culture" principle of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE).

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Towards a Deeper Understanding of Automation Transparency in the Operation of Nuclear Plants

Automation technologies have the potential to reduce operations and maintenance costs, ensure reliable power generation and safety, and thereby contribute to extending the lifespan of nuclear power plants. To fulfill this aspiration, automation behaviors have to be understandable and predictable to human operators and traceable for license holders and regulators in the event of automation failures. The current report investigates how automation transparency as a systems design principle can keep operators sufficiently informed about the inner workings of automation or make fail-safe automation run invisibly in the background to free up operator capacity.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Design and evaluation of novel analogs of 2-amino-4-boronobutanoic acid (ABBA) as inhibitors of human gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase

Inhibitors of gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT1, aka gamma-glutamyl transferase) are needed for the treatment of cancer, cardiovascular illness and other diseases. Compounds that inhibit GGT1 have been evaluated in the clinic, but no inhibitor has successfully demonstrated specific and systemic GGT1 inhibition. All have severe side effects. L-2-amino-4-boronobutanoic acid (l-ABBA), a glutamate analog, is the most potent GGT1 inhibitor in vitro. In this study, we have solved the crystal structure of human GGT1 (hGGT1) with ABBA bound in the active site. The structure was interrogated to identify interactions between the enzyme and the inhibitor. Based on these data, a series of novel ABBA analogs were designed and synthesized. Their inhibitory activity against the hydrolysis and transpeptidation activities of hGGT1 were determined. The lead compounds were crystalized with hGGT1 and the structures solved. The kinetic data and structures of the complexes provide new insights into the critical role of protein structure dynamics in developing compounds for inhibition of hGGT1.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

TEAMER - Field Demonstration of MarineSitu’s Marine Energy Monitoring Tools - CRADA 664 (Abstract)

In order to effectively monitor for marine life around marine energy devices and thus minimize the risk of collision, multiple sensors working in coordination and augmented with around-the-clock automated monitoring algorithms need to be installed in challenging high-energy tidal and wave environments. Such systems are often too expensive for widespread adoption, or lack sufficient sensors or smarts to enable around-the-clock, real-time monitoring without human involvement. MarineSitu has been working to tackle this problem by developing a low-cost, combined sonar and stereo camera sensor array with connected real-time AI-based algorithms for automatically detecting marine life in these marine energy suitable environments. In this TEAMER project with Pacific Northwest National Lab (PNNL), MarineSitu will be testing this novel sensor system for the first time in the high-energy tidal channel environment at PNNL’s Marine and Coastal Research Lab. Throughout this deployment, MarineSitu will be monitoring their system and running analytics on the sensor’s data in real-time. Meanwhile, PNNL Data Scientists and Ocean Engineers, will be evaluating the system’s effectiveness and ease of use both as a tool for plug-and-play environmental monitoring and novel environmental monitoring research. In doing so, the team will improve MarineSitu’s system and software, produce insightful data products, and develop novel visualizations and AI algorithms for combining and analyzing the data produced by systems like MarineSitu’s.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2025

TEAMER – Field Demonstration of MarineSitu’s Marine Energy Monitoring (Abstract)

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗