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Understanding and Utilizing PBL Height Data from Multiple Observing Systems in the GEOS System

The accuracy of PBL height simulation is a key issue in many applications including forecasting near surface meteorology and air quality, however, it is a very challenging problem due to the lack of not only comprehensive, global Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) observations but also a strategy and infrastructure to utilize PBL height data from a variety of sensors. Following the designation of PBL as an incubation class observable in the 2017 Decadal Survey, the PBL Incubation Study Team Report [14] made clear that “a future global PBL observing system requires modeling and data assimilation as essential components.” There is an urgent need for global modeling development in order to utilize Program of Record (POR) observations, assess their impacts, and identify gaps to be filled by future PBL missions. Our overall objective is to develop PBL data assimilation capabilities in the NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS), focusing on PBL height from multiple observing systems, to support the assessment and use of future PBL observations. The NASA GEOS system is composed of the GEOS global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and the atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS). The PBL parameterizations include the “Lock” K-profile scheme driven by surface and cloud-top buoyancy fluxes ([4]), and the “Louis” local scheme for stable conditions based on the Richardson number ([5]). Above the mixed layer defined by the Lock surface plume, shallow cumulus convection is represented by the mass flux scheme of [9]. Additional parameterizations are summarized in [1]. The ADAS employs the hybrid 4D Ensemble- Variational (EnVar) configuration ([15]), with the ensemble providing flow-dependent background error covariance information. The resultant analysis increments are fed back to the forecast model through the 4D incremental analysis update (IAU) approach ([11]). In this study, PBL height data are being or have been generated from radiosondes, GNSS RO, satellite (CATS, CALIPSO and ICESat-2) and ground-based (MPLNET) lidars, and wind profiler. Investigations have been conducted to specify quality marks for PBL height retrievals for the data assimilation purpose. These PBL height data have different strengths and weaknesses ([2], [3], [6], [7], [8], [10]), and the satellite PBL height data provide better global coverage and complement in-situ PBL height data. Radiosondes offer high accuracy and in situ measurement of temperature and humidity profiles, but with poor spatio-temporal sampling. The in-situ observing systems like MPLNET and wind profiler provide long history of PBL height records at each station. The GNSS RO based PBL height is retrieved based on the sharp gradients in refractivity profile that represent the fine vertical structure of temperature and moisture changes above the PBL. However, not all RO refractivity profiles reach the surface depending on location and regime, and RO refractivity retrievals can be negatively biased below 2km. The PBL height data from satellite lidars provide high resolution along track PBL height retrievals, but over land they are affected by previous day convective PBL aerosol and strongly associated with mixing layer and retrievals cannot be made below thick, attenuating clouds. A successful assimilation of PBL height data requires a thorough understanding of the observing method and the retrieval algorithm for each observing system in order to use the PBL height data from multiple observing systems properly. Due to the sensitivity of PBL height data to the observing method and choice of algorithm, it is important to use a model definition appropriate for each observation type to compute differences between PBL height data and model PBL height (OmFs). The GEOS model currently includes two PBL height definitions suitable for direct comparison with observed PBL height, and additional definitions are being added in this study. Evaluation of different model PBL height definitions is underway. Meanwhile, efforts have been made in the GEOS data assimilation system to develop PBL height data assimilation capability. PBL height data can be assimilated using two different approaches. The traditional approach is to construct an observation operator and its tangent linear and adjoint, which link control variables to PBL height data from each observing system. This observation operator can be very complicated, e.g., the lidar-based PBL height observation operator includes the backscatter lidar forward observation operator, the algorithm to derive PBL height from attenuated total backscatter, interpolation, and calculations handling the mismatch between observed and model scales. The other approach is to augment PBL height to the control variable vector, and it is adopted in this study. The latter approach was also used in previous studies, e.g., the assimilation of PBL height data from radiosonde and aircraft in the Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) system for a dispersion modelling study ([13]); the PBL height assimilation study using lidar PBL height data at Greensburg, Kansas for a field campaign ([12]). The PBL height assimilation from multiple observing systems in this study allows us to take advantage of the diverse PBL height data that provide much better global coverage collectively under different meteorological conditions and with different temporal and spatial scales. As all the PBL heights are tightly coupled with the PBL thermodynamic variables, the strong correlations, which are provided by the 4D ensemble forecast, enable PBL height data from various sources to interact and combine coherently and provide additional information for PBL temperature and moisture fields. The results of comparisons among PBL height data from different sources and the evaluation of the model PBL height definitions with the PBL height data will be presented, and the PBL height data synergy strategies and preliminary results will also be discussed at the conference.

Y. Zhu↗

Hybrid data-driven cement-stabilized soil design: An integration of machine learning, multi-objective optimization, and life cycle assessment

Soil stabilization is crucial in geotechnical engineering, yet conventional methods are often time-consuming, resource-intensive, and environmentally unsustainable. Despite growing interest in Machine Learning (ML) and optimization tools for mix design, few studies integrate these methods with decision-making techniques and environmental assessment to support practical implementation. This study proposes a hybrid data-driven framework for predicting strength, optimizing mix compositions, and evaluating environmental impacts via life cycle assessment of cement-stabilized soft soils. Six ML models were evaluated, and the top-performing eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) model was further improved using the Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO). The optimized XGB-GWO model, integrated with a polynomial cost function, served as the objective function in a multi-objective optimization problem solved via the Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II), with final mix selection guided by the entropy-weighted TOPSIS method. Validation through a case study produced mix designs offering superior strength-cost trade-offs, with the optimal mix achieving 2243.2 kPa unconfined compressive strength and a 16.07 % reduction in carbon emissions compared to the highest-cost design. In conclusion, this study offers a sustainable, scalable approach to soil stabilization and supports informed decision-making in construction.

Life cycle assessment↗

NASA Tech Briefs, October 2003

Topics covered include: Cryogenic Temperature-Gradient Foam/Substrate Tensile Tester; Flight Test of an Intelligent Flight-Control System; Slat Heater Boxes for Thermal Vacuum Testing; System for Testing Thermal Insulation of Pipes; Electrical-Impedance-Based Ice-Thickness Gauges; Simulation System for Training in Laparoscopic Surgery; Flasher Powered by Photovoltaic Cells and Ultracapacitors; Improved Autoassociative Neural Networks; Toroidal-Core Microinductors Biased by Permanent Magnets; Using Correlated Photons to Suppress Background Noise; Atmospheric-Fade-Tolerant Tracking and Pointing in Wireless Optical Communication; Curved Focal-Plane Arrays Using Back-Illuminated High-Purity Photodetectors; Software for Displaying Data from Planetary Rovers; Software for Refining or Coarsening Computational Grids; Software for Diagnosis of Multiple Coordinated Spacecraft; Software Helps Retrieve Information Relevant to the User; Software for Simulating a Complex Robot; Software for Planning Scientific Activities on Mars; Software for Training in Pre-College Mathematics; Switching and Rectification in Carbon-Nanotube Junctions; Scandia-and-Yttria-Stabilized Zirconia for Thermal Barriers; Environmentally Safer, Less Toxic Fire-Extinguishing Agents; Multiaxial Temperature- and Time-Dependent Failure Model; Cloverleaf Vibratory Microgyroscope with Integrated Post; Single-Vector Calibration of Wind-Tunnel Force Balances; Microgyroscope with Vibrating Post as Rotation Transducer; Continuous Tuning and Calibration of Vibratory Gyroscopes; Compact, Pneumatically Actuated Filter Shuttle; Improved Bearingless Switched-Reluctance Motor; Fluorescent Quantum Dots for Biological Labeling; Growing Three-Dimensional Corneal Tissue in a Bioreactor; Scanning Tunneling Optical Resonance Microscopy; The Micro-Arcsecond Metrology Testbed; Detecting Moving Targets by Use of Soliton Resonances; and Finite-Element Methods for Real-Time Simulation of Surgery.

Source record↗

Study of Fluid Experiment System (FES)/CAST/Holographic Ground System (HGS)

The use of holographic and schlieren optical techniques for studying the concentration gradients in solidification processes has been used by several investigators over the years. The HGS facility at MSFC has been primary resource in researching this capability. Consequently, scientific personnel have been able to utilize these techniques in both ground based research and in space experiments. An important event in the scientific utilization of the HGS facilities was the TGS Crystal Growth and the casting and solidification technology (CAST) experiments that were flown on the International Microgravity Laboratory (IML) mission in March of this year. The preparation and processing of these space observations are the primary experiments reported in this work. This project provides some ground-based studies to optimize on the holographic techniques used to acquire information about the crystal growth processes flown on IML. Since the ground-based studies will be compared with the space-based experimental results, it is necessary to conduct sufficient ground based studies to best determine how the experiment worked in space. The current capabilities in computer based systems for image processing and numerical computation have certainly assisted in those efforts. As anticipated, this study has certainly shown that these advanced computing capabilities are helpful in the data analysis of such experiments.

Workman, Gary L.↗

Unprecedented Drought Challenges for Texas Water Resources in a Changing Climate: What Do Researchers and Stakeholders Need to Know?

Long‐range water planning is complicated by factors that are rapidly changing in the 21st century, including climate, population, and water use. Here, we analyze climate factors and drought projections for Texas as an example of a diverse society straddling an aridity gradient to examine how the projections can best serve water stakeholder needs. We find that climate models are robust in projecting drying of summer‐season soil moisture and decreasing reservoir supplies for both the eastern and western portions of Texas during the 21st century. Further, projections indicate drier conditions during the latter half of the 21st century than even the most arid centuries of the last 1,000 years that included megadroughts. To illustrate how accounting for drought non‐stationarity may increase water resiliency, we consider generalized case studies involving four key stakeholder groups: agricultural producers, large surface water suppliers, small groundwater management districts, and regional water planning districts. We also examine an example of customized climate information being used as input to long‐range water planning. We find that while stakeholders value the quantitative capability of climate model outputs, more specific climate‐related information better supports resilience planning across multiple stakeholder groups. New suites of tools could provide necessary capacity for both short and long‐term, stakeholder‐specific adaptive planning.

drought↗

Illuminating the pathways to carbon liberation: a systems approach to characterizing the consequential unknowns of carbon transformation and loss from thawing permafrost peatlands (Final Report)

The IsoGenie3 Project delivered new systems-level insights into carbon cycling in thawing permafrost landscapes, with an emphasis on methane and carbon dioxide emissions. From >200 samples from the site collected over a decade, co-analyzed for geochemistry and microbiology, the team recovered ~1,500 assembled microbial genomes and ~1,900 viral population genomes, revealing appreciable genetic novelty - from a new highly abundant bacterial phylum, to novel methane consumers and their activities, to rampant viral novelty. IsoGenie3 linked these organisms to carbon compound transformations (which define the cycling of organic matter in soils, and the loss of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane), and saw that the microbes at each stage of permafrost thaw had different genetic potential to degrade categories of compounds, expressed that genetic potential differently, and actually transformed carbon compounds into greenhouse gases in different ways. IsoGenie 3 identified that some of the thaw-stage differences were due to plant-microbiome relationships; the plant species across the thaw gradient contributed different carbon compounds into the soil, and hosted distinct microbiota (differing among parts of plants as well as species). Lastly, microbes in the saturated post-thaw conditions appeared likely to contribute to the mobilization and toxification of mercury released during thaw. In parallel with ongoing field sampling and analysis, hypotheses arising from field observations were tested via lab incubation experiments. When communities are taken out of their native habitats, they behave differently, and the team first rigorously quantified the magnitude of this effect on microbiome composition and functional capacity, organic matter composition, and gas production; overall the main system processes were maintained in the lab incubations under the conditions tested. Further, the microbial data could inform geochemical reaction network models of those processes. Then, the team ran experiments with additions of compounds, varying temperature, and “live” vs. “dead” peat (the latter having been gamma irradiated, with a few additional variants to control for methodological artifacts). From these, we (a) determined the importance of plant-derived soluble phenolic compounds in bogs’ extraordinary recalcitrance of organic matter, and carbon gas emissions skewed to carbon dioxide; (b) proposed an abiotic ‘tanning’ mechanism, which could contribute to Sphagnum’s inhibitory effect on anaerobic decomposition through alteration of N availability. IsoGenie3 illuminated longer-term and landscape-scale interactions of permafrost thaw and carbon cycling, advancing knowledge of the drivers of methane dynamics not only across in the permafrost-associated peatland (where hydrology and plant communities dictate microbiomes) but also their interconnected lakes (where sediment carbon quality and resident microbiota are determined by position within lake, and lake features). By leveraging observations of site methane dynamics extending well before this project, the team was able to construct a 44-year portrait of the interplay of permafrost thaw, hydrology, vegetation dynamics, and carbon gas emissions, and the doubling of the fully-thawed fens over this time. From the detailed study of this focal site, IsoGenie3 also aimed to improve model representation of these kinds of sites and processes. To improve predictions of methane transformations, we incorporated acetate and isotope dynamics into the ‘DNDC’ biogeochemistry model. In addition, recovered genomes were grouped into ‘functional groups’, i.e. the genomes that perform a specific function of interest, then used to parameterize maximum growth rate and optimum growth temperature (via signatures in their sequence composition) for the BioCrunch model. The BioCrunch model was then in turn used to test the impact of increasing functional resolution of the microbes, on the carbon gas emissions. Lastly for modeling, the ecosys model was parameterized from the microbial and other data, and used to evaluate drivers of e.g. change in methane emissions. Finally, this project also led to the development of a range of new methods and tools, a new metric of organic matter decomposability, as well as a graph-database solution to multidisciplinary data storage and querying. This project’s ongoing analyses at our focal site also contributed to broader advancements in understanding elements of genetic plasticity and methane metabolism, climate change microbiology and community assembly, global peatland geochemistry and Arctic lakes’ roles in climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Product Distribution Theory for Control of Multi-Agent Systems

Product Distribution (PD) theory is a new framework for controlling Multi-Agent Systems (MAS's). First we review one motivation of PD theory, as the information-theoretic extension of conventional full-rationality game theory to the case of bounded rational agents. In this extension the equilibrium of the game is the optimizer of a Lagrangian of the (probability distribution of) the joint stare of the agents. Accordingly we can consider a team game in which the shared utility is a performance measure of the behavior of the MAS. For such a scenario the game is at equilibrium - the Lagrangian is optimized - when the joint distribution of the agents optimizes the system's expected performance. One common way to find that equilibrium is to have each agent run a reinforcement learning algorithm. Here we investigate the alternative of exploiting PD theory to run gradient descent on the Lagrangian. We present computer experiments validating some of the predictions of PD theory for how best to do that gradient descent. We also demonstrate how PD theory can improve performance even when we are not allowed to rerun the MAS from different initial conditions, a requirement implicit in some previous work.

Lee, Chia Fan↗

Feedback Control of Plasma Instabilities with Charged Particle Beams and Study of Plasma Turbulence

A new non-perturbing technique for feedback control of plasma instabilities has been developed in the Columbia Linear Machine (CLM). The feedback control scheme involves the injection of a feedback modulated ion beam as a remote suppressor. The ion beam was obtained from a compact ion beam source which was developed for this purpose. A Langmuir probe was used as the feedback sensor. The feedback controller consisted of a phase-shifter and amplifiers. This technique was demonstrated by stabilizing various plasma instabilities to the background noise level, like the trapped particle instability, the ExB instability and the ion-temperature-gradient (ITG) driven instability. An important feature of this scheme is that the injected ion beam is non-perturbing to the plasma equilibrium parameters. The robustness of this feedback stabilization scheme was also investigated. The principal result is that the scheme is fairly robust, tolerating about 100% variation about the nominal parameter values. Next, this scheme is extended to the unsolved general problem of controlling multimode plasma instabilities simultaneously with a single sensor-suppressor pair. A single sensor-suppressor pair of feedback probes is desirable to reduce the perturbation caused by the probes. Two plasma instabilities the ExB and the ITG modes, were simultaneously stabilized. A simple 'state' feedback type method was used where more state information was generated from the single sensor Langmuir probe by appropriate signal processing, in this case, by differentiation. This proof-of-principle experiment demonstrated for the first time that by designing a more sophisticated electronic feedback controller, many plasma instabilities may be simultaneously controlled. Simple theoretical models showed generally good agreement with the feedback experimental results. On a parallel research front, a better understanding of the saturated state of a plasma instability was sought partly with the help of feedback. A plasma instability is usually observed in its saturated state and appears as a single feature in the frequency spectrum with a single azimuthal and parallel wavenumbers. The physics of the non-zero spectral width was investigated in detail because the finite spectral width can cause "turbulent" transport. One aspect of the "turbulence" was investigated by obtaining the scaling of the linear growth rate of the instabilities with the fluctuation levels. The linear growth rates were measured with the established gated feedback technique. The research showed that the ExB instability evolves into a quasi-coherent state when the fluctuation level is high. The coherent aspects were studied with a bispectral analysis. Moreover, the single spectral feature was discovered to be actually composed of a few radial harmonics. The radial harmonics play a role in the nonlinear saturation of the instability via three-wave coupling.

Tham, Philip Kin-Wah↗

Impact of Forest Canopy Structure on Buoyant Plume Dynamics During Wildland Fires

Heterogeneous forest canopies can generate complex turbulent structures, but in the presence of a fire plume, these interactions are not fully understood. This study investigates the influence of forest canopy heterogeneity on buoyant plume dynamics resulting from surface thermal anomalies representing wildland fires, utilizing Large Eddy Simulation (LES). The Parallelized Large-Eddy Simulation Model (PALM) was employed to simulate six canopy configurations: no canopy, homogeneous canopy, external plume-edge canopy, internal plume-edge canopy, 100 m gap canopy, and 200 m gap canopy. Each configuration was analyzed with and without a static surface heat flux patch of 5000 W ∙ m -2 , resulting in a resting buoyant plume. Simulations were conducted under three crosswind speeds: 0, 5, and 10 m ∙ s -1 . Results show that canopy structure significantly modifies plume behavior, mean flow, and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budgets. Plume updraft speed and tilt varied with canopy configuration and crosswind speed. Horizontal pressure gradients associated with plume-atmosphere interaction were modified based on the canopy configuration, resulting in varying crosswind speed reductions at the plume region. Strong momentum absorption was observed above the canopy for the crosswind cases, with the greatest enhancement in the gap canopies. Momentum injection from below the canopy due to the heat source was also observed, resulting in plume structure modulation based on canopy configuration. TKE was found to be the largest in the gap canopy configurations. TKE budget analysis revealed that buoyant production dominated over shear production. At the center of the heat patch, the gap canopy configurations showed enhanced buoyancy within the gap. These results improve our knowledge of fire-canopy-atmosphere interactions that can inform fire models on the impacts of canopy heterogeneity on plume dynamics and ember ejections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Single Shot Characterization of High Transformer Ratio Wakefields in Nonlinear Plasma Acceleration

We report that plasma wakefields can enable very high accelerating gradients for frontier high energy particle accelerators, in excess of 10 GeV/m. To overcome limits on single stage acceleration, specially shaped drive beams can be used in both linear and nonlinear plasma wakefield accelerators (PWFA), to increase the transformer ratio, implying that the drive beam deceleration is minimized relative to acceleration obtained in the wake. In this Letter, we report the results of a nonlinear PWFA, high transformer ratio experiment using high-charge, longitudinally asymmetric drive beams in a plasma cell. An emittance exchange process is used to generate variable drive current profiles, in conjunction with a long (multiple plasma wavelength) witness beam. The witness beam is energy modulated by the wakefield, yielding a response that contains detailed spectral information in a single-shot measurement. Using these methods, we generate a variety of beam profiles and characterize the wakefields, directly observing transformer ratios up to R=7.8. Lastly, a spectrally based reconstruction technique, validated by 3D particle-in-cell simulations, is introduced to obtain the drive beam current profile from the decelerating wake data.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

EXCHANGE Campaign 1: A Community-Driven Baseline Characterization of Soils, Sediments, and Water Across Coastal Gradients

The EXploration of Coastal Hydrobiogeochemistry Across a Network of Gradients and Experiments (EXCHANGE) program is a consortium of scientists working together to improve our understanding of how the two-way exchange of water between estuaries or large lake lacustuaries and the terrestrial landscape influence the state and function of ecosystems across the coastal interface. EXCHANGE Campaign 1 (EC1) focuses on the spatial variation in biogeochemical structure and function at the coastal terrestrial-aquatic interface (TAI). In the Fall of 2021, the EXCHANGE Consortium gathered samples from 52 TAIs. Samples collected from EC1 were analyzed for bulk geochemical parameters, bulk physicochemical parameters, organic matter characteristics, and redox-sensitive elements.Please download ec1_README.pdf for a complete list of available data in each .zip folder, package version history, and detailed information about the project. This README will serve as the central place for EC1 Data Package updates. Experimental setup and v1 methods are documented in Myers-Pigg and Pennington et al., 2023 (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02548-7).EC1 Data Package Structure:ec1_README.pdfec1_methods.pdfec1_metadata_v3.zip...ec1_dd.csv...ec1_flmd.csv...ec1_sample_catalog.csv...ec1_metadata_kitlevel.csv...ec1_metadata_collectionlevel.csv...ec1_data_collectionlevel.csv...ec1_igsn_metadata.csvec1_soil_v3.zipec1_sediment_v3.zipec1_water_v3.zipec1_processingscripts_v3.zipThis data package is on v3 and was originally published May 2023 (v1). Subsequent updates will be published here with new version numbers. Please see the Change History section in ec1_README.pdf for detailed changes.---Acknowledging EXCHANGE: General Support and Data Product UseWe ask that users of EXCHANGE data add the following acknowledgement when publishing data in scholarly articles and data repositories:"This research is based on work supported by COMPASS-FME, a multi-institutional project supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research as part of the Environmental System Science Program."

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DEVELOPMENT OF PLASMA SIMULATION TOOL FOR THE ACCEL-ERATING CAVITIES

Plasma processing of superconducting radio frequency (SRF) cavities has shown an improvement in accelerating gradient by reducing the radiation due to field emission and multipacting. Plasma processing is a common tech-nique where the free oxygen produced by the plasma breaks down and removes hydrocarbons from surfaces. This increases the work function and reduces the second-ary emission coefficient. The hydrocarbon fragments of H2, CO, CO2, and H2O are removed from the system with the process gas which is flowing through the system. Here, we present COMSOL for the first time to simulate the plasma processing of an SRF cavity. In this work, we use Jefferson Lab's C75 SRF cavities design as our case study. Using simulation, we predict the condition of plasma ignition inside the SRF cavity. The simulation provides information about the optimal rf coupling to the cavity, mode for plasma ignition, choice of gas concen-tration, power, and pressure.

Senevirathne, I.↗

Interactions Between Microturbulence and Magnetohydrodynamic Instabilities in Magnetized Plasmas (Final Technical Report)

This document details the work accomplished during the period 04/15/2012-01/31/2020 for the collaborative project “Interactions Between Microturbulence and Magnetohydrodynamic Instabilities in Magnetized Plasmas,” and serves as the final report on the University of California, San Diego part of this collaborative project for Department of Energy Office of Science - Fusion Energy Sciences Grant No. DE- SC0007783. This project focused on the development of analytic and computational tools, seeking to better understand the mutual interactions between small-scale temperature-gradient driven microturbulence and macroscopic magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) instabilities, particularly tearing modes, in magnetically confined plasmas relevant for the generation of fusion energy. This project advanced understanding through numerical simulations of different sets of model equations, corresponding to different microturbulence instabilities. Questions addressed included how the magnitudes, spatial structures, and scaling's of turbulent forcing's and drags impact magnetic island dynamics, as well as quantifying the “region of influence” of an island on the microturbulence dynamics. A key finding of the project is that the microturbulence fluctuations and associated cross-field particle and energy fluxes exhibit spatial asymmetries for sufficiently large islands. The results have improved our fundamental understanding of plasma dynamics, motivated new experimental investigations, and will help inform future fusion predictive modeling efforts.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Concentration and Velocity Gradients in Fluidized Beds

In this work we focus on the height dependence of particle concentration, average velocity components, fluctuations in these velocities and, with the flow turned off, the sedimentation velocity. The latter quantities are measured using Particle Imaging Velocimetry (PIV). The PIV technique uses a 1-megapixel camera to capture two time-displaced images of particles in the bed. The depth of field of the imaging system is approximately 0.5 cm. The camera images a region with characteristic length of 2.6 cm for the small particles and 4.7 cm. for the large particles. The local direction of particle flow is determined by calculating the correlation function for sub-regions of 32 x 32 pixels. The velocity vector map is created from this correlation function using the time between images (we use 15 to 30 ms). The software is sensitive variations of 1/64th of a pixel. We produce velocity maps at various heights, each consisting of 3844 velocities. We break this map into three vertical zones for increased height information. The concentration profile is measured using an expanded (1 cm diameter) linearly polarized HeNe Laser incident on the fluidized bed. A COHU camera (gamma=1, AGC off) with a lens and a polarizer images the transmitted linearly polarized light to minimize the effects of multiply scattered light. The intensity profile (640 X 480 pixels) is well described by a Gaussian fit and the height of the Gaussian is used to characterize the concentration. This value is compared to the heights found for known concentrations. The sedimentation velocity is estimated using by imaging a region near the bottom of the bed and using PIV to measure the velocity as a function of time. With a nearly uniform concentration profile, the time can be converted to height information. The stable fluidized beds are made from large pseudo-monodisperse particles (silica spheres with radii (250-300) microns and (425-500) microns) dispersed in a glycerin/water mix. The Peclet number is sufficiently large that Brownian motion of the particles can be ignored and the Reynolds number sufficiently small that particle inertia is negligible. A packed particle bed is used to randomize and disperse the flowing fluid introduced by a peristaltic pump. The bed itself is a rectangular glass cell 8 cm wide (x), 0.8 cm deep and a height of 30.5 cm (z). The depth of field of the camera is approximately 0.5 cm so depth information is averaged. Over flow fluid is returned to the reservoir making a closed loop system. In these experiments the particles form a sediment approximately 5.7 cm high with the pump off and expand to 22 cm with the pump on. For the smaller particles the pump velocity is .5 millimeters per second and 1.1 millimeters per second for the large particles. At this concentration the bed has a very well defined top where particle concentration rapidly drops to zero.

McClymer, James P.↗

Medium Energy Electron Flux in Earth's Outer Radiation Belt (MERLIN): A Machine Learning Model

The radiation belts of the Earth, filled with energetic electrons, comprise complex and dynamic systems that pose a significant threat to satellite operation. While various models of electron flux both for low and relativistic energies have been developed, the behavior of medium energy (120–600 keV) electrons, especially in the MEO region, remains poorly quantified. At these energies, electrons are driven by both convective and diffusive transport, and their prediction usually requires sophisticated 4D modeling codes. In this paper, we present an alternative approach using the Light Gradient Boosting (LightGBM) machine learning algorithm. The Medium Energy electRon fLux In Earth's outer radiatioN belt (MERLIN) model takes as input the satellite position, a combination of geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters including the time history of velocity, and does not use persistence. MERLIN is trained on >15 years of the GPS electron flux data and tested on more than 1.5 years of measurements. Tenfold cross validation yields that the model predicts the MEO radiation environment well, both in terms of dynamics and amplitudes o f flux. Evaluation on the test set shows high correlation between the predicted and observed electron flux (0.8) and low values of absolute error. The MERLIN model can have wide space weather applications, providing information for the scientific community in the form of radiation belts reconstructions, as well as industry for satellite mission design, nowcast of the MEO environment, and surface charging analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Micromechanical INS/GPS System for Small Satellites

The cost and complexity of large satellite space missions continue to escalate. To reduce costs, more attention is being directed toward small lightweight satellites where future demand is expected to grow dramatically. Specifically, micromechanical inertial systems and microstrip global positioning system (GPS) antennas incorporating flip-chip bonding, application specific integrated circuits (ASIC) and MCM technologies will be required. Traditional microsatellite pointing systems do not employ active control. Many systems allow the satellite to point coarsely using gravity gradient, then attempt to maintain the image on the focal plane with fast-steering mirrors. Draper's approach is to actively control the line of sight pointing by utilizing on-board attitude determination with micromechanical inertial sensors and reaction wheel control actuators. Draper has developed commercial and tactical-grade micromechanical inertial sensors, The small size, low weight, and low cost of these gyroscopes and accelerometers enable systems previously impractical because of size and cost. Evolving micromechanical inertial sensors can be applied to closed-loop, active control of small satellites for micro-radian precision-pointing missions. An inertial reference feedback control loop can be used to determine attitude and line of sight jitter to provide error information to the controller for correction. At low frequencies, the error signal is provided by GPS. At higher frequencies, feedback is provided by the micromechanical gyros. This blending of sensors provides wide-band sensing from dc to operational frequencies. First order simulation has shown that the performance of existing micromechanical gyros, with integrated GPS, is feasible for a pointing mission of 10 micro-radians of jitter stability and approximately 1 milli-radian absolute error, for a satellite with 1 meter antenna separation. Improved performance micromechanical sensors currently under development will be suitable for a range of micro-nano-satellite applications.

Barbour, N.↗

Machine learning and process-based modeling of spatiotemporal changes in active layer thickness across Alaska

Permafrost degradation poses a growing threat to infrastructure stability and ecosystem resilience in the rapidly warming Arctic. We investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of active layer thickness (ALT) across Alaska by integrating field observations, environmental datasets, a physically based Stefan model, and machine learning (ML) techniques. Using weather projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5), we assessed ALT sensitivity to projected future weather conditions. The random forest (RF) model outperformed the Stefan approach in predicting ALT on the training dataset (R² = 0.84 vs. 0.53) but demonstrated lower generalizability on the test dataset (R² = 0.24 vs. 0.54). The root mean square error (RMSE) for the RF model for training and testing ranged from 14 to 22 cm, compared to 17 and 18 cm for the Stefan model. Variable importance analysis revealed that mean annual temperature and slope angle were the strongest predictors of ALT, accounting for 19% and 18% of the variance, respectively, followed by sediment transport index (14%) and stream power index (11%). Comparative analysis of baseline ALT predictions showed the Stefan model tended to project a thicker active layer (mean ± SD: 65 ± 16 cm), compared to the RF model (mean ± SD: 59 ± 8.8) cm). Both models indicated a latitudinal gradient in ALT, with shallower depths at higher latitudes. Projected ALT increases by 2100 were estimated at 3.3 ± 2.2 cm under SSP 2-4.5 and 5.9 ± 4.0 cm under SSP 5-8.5 for the ML model, whereas the Stefan model projected substantially larger increases of 13 ± 2.6 cm (SSP 2-4.5) and 28 ± 4.4 cm (SSP5-8.5). Spatial analysis showed the greatest ALT increases in northern Alaska, with relatively smaller changes in southern regions. These findings highlight the complex, multifactorial nature of ALT dynamics and the value of hybrid modeling approaches. As rising temperatures accelerate permafrost thaw, changes in ALT can disrupt ecosystems, damage infrastructures, and enhance the release of stored soil carbon, highlighting the urgent need for improved predictive capabilities to inform adaptation strategies in the Arctic.

Climate sciences↗

The p-wave upper mantle structure beneath an active spreading centre - The Gulf of California

Over 1400 seismograms of earthquakes in Mexico are analyzed and data sets for the travel time, apparent phase velocity, and relative amplitude information are utilized to produce a tightly constrained, detailed model for depths to 900 km beneath an active oceanic ridge region, the Gulf of California. The data are combined by first inverting the travel times, perturbing that model to fit the p-delta data, and then performing trial and error synthetic seismogram modelling to fit the short-period waveforms. The final model satisfies all three data sets. The ridge model is similar to existing upper mantle models for shield, tectonic-continental, and arc-trench regimes below 400 km, but differs significantly in the upper 350 km. Ridge model velocities are very low in this depth range; the model 'catches up' with the others with a very large velocity gradient from 225 to 390 km.

Walck, M. C.↗