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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

Optimal message log reclamation for independent checkpointing

Independent (uncoordinated) check pointing for parallel and distributed systems allows maximum process autonomy but suffers from possible domino effects and the associated storage space overhead for maintaining multiple checkpoints and message logs. In most research on check pointing and recovery, it was assumed that only the checkpoints and message logs older than the global recovery line can be discarded. It is shown how recovery line transformation and decomposition can be applied to the problem of efficiently identifying all discardable message logs, thereby achieving optimal garbage collection. Communication trace-driven simulation for several parallel programs is used to show the benefits of the proposed algorithm for message log reclamation.

Wang, Yi-Min↗
NASA NTRS1997

Fiber Contraction Approaches for Improving CMC Proportional Limit

The fact that the service life of ceramic matrix composites (CMC) decreases dramatically for stresses above the CMC proportional limit has triggered a variety of research activities to develop microstructural approaches that can significantly improve this limit. As discussed in a previous report, both local and global approaches exist for hindering the propagation of cracks through the CMC matrix, the physical source for the proportional limit. Local approaches include: (1) minimizing fiber diameter and matrix modulus; (2) maximizing fiber volume fraction, fiber modulus, and matrix toughness; and (3) optimizing fiber-matrix interfacial shear strength; all of which should reduce the stress concentration at the tip of cracks pre existing or created in the matrix during CMC service. Global approaches, as with pre-stressed concrete, center on seeking mechanisms for utilizing the reinforcing fiber to subject the matrix to in-situ compressive stresses which will remain stable during CMC service. Demonstrated CMC examples for the viability of this residual stress approach are based on strain mismatches between the fiber and matrix in their free states, such as, thermal expansion mismatch and creep mismatch. However, these particular mismatch approaches are application limited in that the residual stresses from expansion mismatch are optimum only at low CMC service temperatures and the residual stresses from creep mismatch are typically unidirectional and difficult to implement in complex-shaped CMC.

DiCarlo, James A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

ORNL_AISD_NiNb

This dataset describes the nickel-niobium solid solution binary alloy, where the two constituent elements nickel (Ni) and niobium (Nb) are randomly placed on an underlying crystal lattice. This dataset for nickel-niobium (Ni-Nb) alloys available includes the formation energy and bulk modulus for each crystal structure. Each atomic sample has a disordered phase which is obtained starting from an initial regular crystal structure of type body-centered cubic (BCC), face-centered cubic (FCC), or hexagonal compact packed (HCP). The geometry optimization ensures that all the alloy samples reached the equilibrium with negative formation energy. We perform geometry optimizations using the LAMMPS simulation package [1], a flexible simulation tool for particle-based materials modeling at the atomic, meso, and continuum scales. We utilized the embedded atom model (EAM) potential for Ni and Nb developed in a previous study [2]. The potential could describe behaviors of the liquid and solid phases of Ni-Nb alloy. The structural factors and angular distributions of three atoms are well-matched with X-ray and ab initio-based molecular dynamics data. We prepared the three different crystals with different initial lattice parameters (3.52 Ã… for FCC, 3.32 Ã… for BCC, and 3.5 Ã… for HCP). We performed energy minimization in two steps. Firstly, we minimized the structures with an isotropic unit cell to minimize the side effects from our arbitrary lattice parameters for all other compositions. Then, we applied geometry optimization with a triclinic (non-orthogonal) unit cell to fully minimize the stress components to calculate the elastic constants. In this procedure, we chose 10,000 as the maximum number of allowable steps aimed at obtaining fully relaxed atomic geometries. The dataset consists of three sets of crystal structures. The first set contains 46,086 irregular crystal structures, each of them with 54 atoms, obtained through optimization starting from a regular BCC crystal structure. The second set contains 24,543 irregular crystal structures, each of them with 32 atoms, obtained through optimization starting from a regular FCC crystal structure. The third set contains 39,303 irregular crystal structures, each of them with 48 atoms, obtained through optimization starting from a regular HCP crystal structure. The atomic configurations within each set span the possible compositional range. The three sets have been unified in a global dataset, which is extremely heterogeneous in terms of crystal structures, lattice volumes, and atomic configurations. Organization of files inside the dataset: the dataset contains three subdirectories called • BCC_opt • FCC_opt • HCP_opt based on the type of initial regular structure used to start the geometry optimization. Inside each of these folders, every atomic structure is identified by a string “A_B_Câ€, where A denotes the number of Nb in the system, B denotes index of structure with a given Nb number, and C denotes the total number of structures generated with a given Nb number. For each optimized crystal structure identified by the unique string of characters “A_B_Câ€, three files are provided: • A_B_C_opt.xyz: The optimized geometries in xyz format • A_B_C_opt.cfg: The optimized geometries in cfg format. It includes cell information and atomic energy, and forces calculated from LAMMPS. • A_B_C.elastic: Raw data of 21 elastic constants from LAMMPS output. • A_B_C.bulk: Calculated upper and lower bounds of bulk modulus and averaged one based on Voigt-Reuss-Hill approach from *.elastic. References: [1] A. P. Thompson, H. M. Aktulga, R. Berger, D. S. Bolintineanu, W. M. Brown, P. S. Crozier, P. J. in 't Veld, A. Kohlmeyer, S. G. Moore, T. D. Nguyen, R. Shan, M. J. Stevens, J. Tranchida, C. Trott, and S. J. Plimpton. LAMMPS - a flexible simulation tool for particle-based materials modeling at the atomic, meso, and continuum scales. Comp. Phys. Comm., 271:108171, 2022. [2] Y Zhang, R Ashcraft, MI Mendelev, CZ Wang, and KF Kelton. Experimental and molecular dynamics simulation study of structure of liquid and amorphous ni62nb38 alloy. The Journal of chemical physics, 145(20):204505, 2016.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2023

Optimal Estimation Inversion of Ionospheric Electron Density from GNSS-POD Limb Measurements: Part II-Validation and Comparison Using NmF2 and hmF2

A growing number of SmallSat/CubeSat constellations with high-rate (50–100 Hz) global navigation satellite system radio occultations (GNSS-RO) as well as low-rate (1 Hz) precise orbit determination (GNSS-POD) limb-viewing capabilities provide unprecedented spatial and temporal sampling rates for ionospheric studies. In the F-region electron density (N 𝑒 ) retrieval process, instead of the conventional onion-peeling (OP) inversion, an optimal estimation (OE) inversion technique was recently developed using total electron content measurements acquired by GNSS-POD link. The new technique is applied to data acquired from the COSMIC-1, COSMIC-2, and Spire constellations. Although both OE and OP techniques use the Abel weighting function in N 𝑒 inversion, OE significantly differs in its performance, especially in the lower F- and E-regions. In this work, we evaluate and compare newly derived data sets using F2 peak properties with other space-based and ground-based observations. We determine the F2 peak N 𝑒 (NmF2) and its altitude (hmF2), and compare them with the OP-retrieved values. Good agreement is observed between the two techniques for both NmF2 and hmF2. In addition, we also utilize autoscaled F2 peak measurements from a number of worldwide Digisonde stations (∼30). The diurnal sensitivity and latitudinal variability of the F2 peak between the two techniques are carefully studied at these locations. Good agreement is observed between OE-retrieved NmF2 and Digisonde-measured NmF2. However, significant differences appear between OE-retrieved hmF2 and Digisonde-measured hmF2. During the daytime, Digisonde-measured hmF2 remains ∼25–45 km below the OE-retrieved hmF2, especially at mid and high latitudes. We also incorporate F-region N 𝑒 measurements from two incoherent scatter radar observations at high latitudes, located in the North American (Millstone Hill) and European (EISCAT at Tromso) sectors. The radar measurements show good agreement with OE-retrieved values. Although there are several possible sources of error in the ionogram-derived N 𝑒 profiles, our further analysis on F1 and F2 layers indicates that the low Digisonde hmF2 is caused by the autoscaled method, which tends to detect a height systematically below the F2 peak when the F1 layer is present.

GNSS radio occultation↗
DOE OSTI2022

A proximal trust-region method for nonsmooth optimization with inexact function and gradient evaluations

Many applications require minimizing the sum of smooth and nonsmooth functions. For example, basis pursuit denoising problems in data science require minimizing a measure of data misfit plus an $\ell^1$-regularizer. Similar problems arise in the optimal control of partial differential equations (PDEs) when sparsity of the control is desired. Here, we develop a novel trust-region method to minimize the sum of a smooth nonconvex function and a nonsmooth convex function. Our method is unique in that it permits and systematically controls the use of inexact objective function and derivative evaluations. When using a quadratic Taylor model for the trust-region subproblem, our algorithm is an inexact, matrix-free proximal Newton-type method that permits indefinite Hessians. We prove global convergence of our method in Hilbert space and demonstrate its efficacy on three examples from data science and PDE-constrained optimization.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1999

Characterization of Climate Change and Variability with GPS

We compared zonal mean specific humidity derived from the 21 June-4 July 1995 Global Positioning System (GPS)/MET occultation observations with that derived from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global analyses. The GPS/MET results indicate a drier troposphere, especially near the subtropical tradewind inversion. A small, moist bias in the GPS/MET upper northern-hemisphere troposphere compared to ECMWF may be due to a small radiosonde temperature bias. A diagram shows the difference (g/kg) between the GPS/MET zonal mean specific humidity and that for June-August derived from 1963-1973 radiosondes. Although the observing period is short, GPS and ECMWF results both indicate a significantly wetter boundary layer at most latitudes consistent with decadal trends observed in radiosonde data. GPS/MET results exhibit higher tropical convective available potential energy (CAPE), suggesting a more vigorous tropical Hadley circulation. Drier, free troposphere air in the descending branches of the Hadley circulation is due in part to a moist radiosonde bias but may also reflect some negative moisture feedback. Using 1992-1997 ground GPS observations and recent advancements in GPS technology, we removed an apparent altimetric drift (-1.2 +/- 0.4 mm/yr) due to columnar water vapor from the Topography (Ocean) Experiment (TOPEX) microwave radiometer, which brought the TOPEX mean sea level change estimates into better agreement with historical tide gauge records, suggesting global mean sea level is rising at a rate of 1.5-2.0 mm/yr. We can also discern a statistically significant increase of 0.2 +/- 0.1 kg/square m/yr in mean columnar water vapor over the ocean from 1992-1997. Optimal fingerprinting can be used for the detection and attribution of tropospheric warming due to an anthropogenic greenhouse. Optimal fingerprinting distinguishes between different types of signals according to their spatial and temporal patterns, while minimizing the influence of natural climate variability. S. Leroy concludes that the signal-to-noise ratio of global warming detection increases by unity approximately every 10 years if a single oceanic region is chosen. Less time for detection is likely when many global regions are considered simultaneously. GPS occultation constellations allow the possibility of detecting small changes in upper air temperature with inconsequential calibration errors, making occultation an ideal data type for global warming detection studies. Our initial study of a 22-GHz satellite-satellite occultation system predicts upper troposphere moisture sensitivities of 3-5 ppmv and 1-2 percent in the middle and lower troposphere. Additional information contained in original.

Kursinski, R.↗
NASA NTRS2016

New Methods for Retrieval of Chlorophyll Red Fluorescence from Hyperspectral Satellite Instruments: Simulations and Application to GOME-2 and SCIAMACHY

Global satellite measurements of solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) from chlorophyll over land and ocean have proven useful for a number of different applications related to physiology, phenology, and productivity of plants and phytoplankton. Terrestrial chlorophyll fluorescence is emitted throughout the red and far-red spectrum, producing two broad peaks near 683 and 736nm. From ocean surfaces, phytoplankton fluorescence emissions are entirely from the red region (683nm peak). Studies using satellite-derived SIF over land have focused almost exclusively on measurements in the far red (wavelengths greater than 712nm), since those are the most easily obtained with existing instrumentation. Here, we examine new ways to use existing hyperspectral satellite data sets to retrieve red SIF (wavelengths less than 712nm) over both land and ocean. Red SIF is thought to provide complementary information to that from the far red for terrestrial vegetation. The satellite instruments that we use were designed to make atmospheric trace-gas measurements and are therefore not optimal for observing SIF; they have coarse spatial resolution and only moderate spectral resolution (0.5nm). Nevertheless, these instruments, the Global Ozone Monitoring Instrument 2 (GOME-2) and the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY), offer a unique opportunity to compare red and far-red terrestrial SIF at regional spatial scales. Terrestrial SIF has been estimated with ground-, aircraft-, or satellite-based instruments by measuring the filling-in of atmospheric andor solar absorption spectral features by SIF. Our approach makes use of the oxygen (O2) gamma band that is not affected by SIF. The SIF-free O2 gamma band helps to estimate absorption within the spectrally variable O2 B band, which is filled in by red SIF. SIF also fills in the spectrally stable solar Fraunhofer lines (SFLs) at wavelengths both inside and just outside the O2 B band, which further helps to estimate red SIF emission. Our approach is then an extension of previous approaches applied to satellite data that utilized only the filling-in of SFLs by red SIF. We conducted retrievals of red SIF using an extensive database of simulated radiances covering a wide range of conditions. Our new algorithm produces good agreement between the simulated truth and retrievals and shows the potential of the O2 bands for noise reduction in red SIF retrievals as compared with approaches that rely solely on SFL filling. Biases seen with existing satellite data, most likely due to instrumental artifacts that vary in time, space, and with instrument, must be addressed in order to obtain reasonable results. Our 8-year record of red SIF observations over land with the GOME-2 allows for the first time reliable global mapping of monthly anomalies. These anomalies are shown to have similar spatiotemporal structure as those in the far red, particularly for drought-prone regions. There is a somewhat larger percentage response in the red as compared with the far red for these areas that are drought sensitive. We also demonstrate that good-quality ocean fluorescence line height retrievals can be achieved with GOME-2, SCIAMACHY, and similar instruments by utilizing the full complement of radiance measurements that span the red SIF emission feature.

spatiotemporal structure↗
NASA NTRS1991

New displacement-based methods for optimal truss topology design

Two alternate methods for maximum stiffness truss topology design are presented. The ground structure approach is used, and the problem is formulated in terms of displacements and bar areas. This large, nonconvex optimization problem can be solved by a simultaneous analysis and design approach. Alternatively, an equivalent, unconstrained, and convex problem in the displacements only can be formulated, and this problem can be solved by a nonsmooth, steepest descent algorithm. In both methods, the explicit solving of the equilibrium equations and the assembly of the global stiffness matrix are circumvented. A large number of examples have been studied, showing the attractive features of topology design as well as exposing interesting features of optimal topologies.

Bendsoe, Martin P.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Global benefits of non-continuous flooding to reduce greenhouse gases and irrigation water use without rice yield penalty

Non-continuous flooding is an effective practice for reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) and irrigation water use (IRR) in rice fields. However, advancing global implementation is hampered by the lack of comprehensive understanding of GHGs and IRR reduction benefits without compromising rice yield. Here, we present the largest observational data set for such effects as of yet. By using Random Forest regression models based on 636 field trials at 105 globally georeferenced sites, we identified the key drivers of effects of non-continuous flooding practices and mapped maximum GHGs or IRR reduction benefits under optimal non-continuous flooding strategies. The results show that variation in effects of non-continuous flooding practices are primarily explained by the UnFlooded days Ratio (UFR, that is the ratio of the number of days without standing water in the field to total days of the growing period). Non-continuous flooding practices could be feasible to be adopted in 76% of global rice harvested areas. This would reduce the global warming potential (GWP) of CH4 and N2O combined from rice production by 47% or the total GWP by 7% and alleviate irrigation water use by 25%, while maintaining yield levels. The identified UFR targets far exceed currently observed levels particularly in South and Southeast Asia, suggesting large opportunities for climate mitigation and water use conservation, associated with the rigorous implementation of non-continuous flooding practices in global rice cultivation.

climate change mitigation↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effect of epitope variant co-delivery on the depth of CD8 T cell responses induced by HIV-1 conserved mosaic vaccines

To stop the HIV-1 pandemic, vaccines must induce responses capable of controlling vast HIV-1 variants circulating in the population as well as those evolved in each individual following transmission. Numerous strategies have been proposed, of which the most promising include focusing responses on the vulnerable sites of HIV-1 displaying the least entropy among global isolates and using algorithms that maximize vaccine match to circulating HIV-1 variants by vaccine cocktails of optimized complementing sequences. In this study, we investigated CD8 T cell responses induced by a bi-valent mosaic of highly conserved HIVconsvX regions delivered by a combination of simian adenovirus ChAdOx1 and poxvirus MVA. We compared partially and fully mono- and bi-valent prime-boost regimens and their ability to elicit T cells recognizing natural epitope variants using an interferon-g enzyme-linked immunospot (ELISPOT) assay. We used 11 well-defined CD8 T cell epitopes in two mouse haplotypes and, for each epitope, assessed recognition of the two vaccine forms together with the other most frequent epitope variants in the HIV-1 database. We conclude that for the magnitude and depth of epitope recognition, CD8 T cell responses benefitted in most comparisons from the combined bi-valent mosaic and envisage the main advantage of the bi-valent vaccine during its deployment to diverse populations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

BEYONDPLANCK III. Commander3

We describe the computational infrastructure for end-to-end Bayesian cosmic microwave background (CMB) analysis implemented by the BeyondPlanck Collaboration. The code is called Commander3. It provides a statistically consistent framework for global analysis of CMB and microwave observations and may be useful for a wide range of legacy, current, and future experiments. The paper has three main goals. Firstly, we provide a high-level overview of the existing code base, aiming to guide readers who wish to extend and adapt the code according to their own needs or re-implement it from scratch in a different programming language. Secondly, we discuss some critical computational challenges that arise within any global CMB analysis framework, for instance in-memory compression of time-ordered data, fast Fourier transform optimization, and parallelization and load-balancing. Thirdly, we quantify the CPU and RAM requirements for the current BEYONDPLANCK analysis, finding that a total of 1.5 TB of RAM is required for efficient analysis and that the total cost of a full Gibbs sample for LFI is 170 CPU-hrs, including both low-level processing and high-level component separation, which is well within the capabilities of current low-cost computing facilities. The existing code base is made publicly available under a GNU General Public Library (GPL) license.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improving ideal MHD equilibrium accuracy with physics-informed neural networks

We present a novel approach to compute three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic equilibria with isotropic pressure profiles and nested surfaces by parametrizing Fourier modes with artificial neural networks (NNs). The full nonlinear global force residual of single equilibria across the volume in real space is then minimized with first order optimizers and compared to equilibria computed by conventional solvers. Already, we observe competitive computational cost to arrive at the same minimum residuals computable with existing codes. With increased computational cost, lower minima of the residual are computable with the NNs than with any other tested solver, establishing a new lower bound for the force residual. We use minimally complex NNs, and we expect significant improvements for solving not only single equilibria with NNs, but also for creating NN models valid over continuous distributions of equilibria.

ideal magnetohydrodynamics↗
NASA NTRS1976

Digital correlation detector for low-cost Omega navigation

Techniques to lower the cost of using the Omega global navigation network with phase-locked loops (PLL) were developed. The technique that was accepted as being "optimal" is called the memory-aided phase-locked loop (MAPLL) since it allows operation on all eight Omega time slots with one PLL through the implementation of a random access memory. The receiver front-end and the signals that it transmits to the PLL were first described. A brief statistical analysis of these signals was then made to allow a rough comparison between the front-end presented in this work and a commercially available front-end to be made. The hardware and theory of application of the MAPLL were described, ending with an analysis of data taken with the MAPLL. Some conclusions and recommendations were also given.

Chamberlin, K. A.↗
NASA NTRS1980

An automated approach to the design of decision tree classifiers

The classification of large dimensional data sets arising from the merging of remote sensing data with more traditional forms of ancillary data is considered. Decision tree classification, a popular approach to the problem, is characterized by the property that samples are subjected to a sequence of decision rules before they are assigned to a unique class. An automated technique for effective decision tree design which relies only on apriori statistics is presented. This procedure utilizes a set of two dimensional canonical transforms and Bayes table look-up decision rules. An optimal design at each node is derived based on the associated decision table. A procedure for computing the global probability of correct classfication is also provided. An example is given in which class statistics obtained from an actual LANDSAT scene are used as input to the program. The resulting decision tree design has an associated probability of correct classification of .76 compared to the theoretically optimum .79 probability of correct classification associated with a full dimensional Bayes classifier. Recommendations for future research are included.

Argentiero, P.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Multiobjective optimization techniques for structural design

The multiobjective programming techniques are important in the design of complex structural systems whose quality depends generally on a number of different and often conflicting objective functions which cannot be combined into a single design objective. The applicability of multiobjective optimization techniques is studied with reference to simple design problems. Specifically, the parameter optimization of a cantilever beam with a tip mass and a three-degree-of-freedom vabration isolation system and the trajectory optimization of a cantilever beam are considered. The solutions of these multicriteria design problems are attempted by using global criterion, utility function, game theory, goal programming, goal attainment, bounded objective function, and lexicographic methods. It has been observed that the game theory approach required the maximum computational effort, but it yielded better optimum solutions with proper balance of the various objective functions in all the cases.

Rao, S. S.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Guidance simulation and test support for differential GPS flight experiment

Three separate tasks which supported the test preparation, test operations, and post test analysis of the NASA Ames flight test evaluation of the differential Global Positioning System (GPS) are presented. Task 1 consisted of a navigation filter design, coding, and testing to optimally make use of GPS in a differential mode. The filter can be configured to accept inputs from external censors such as an accelerometer and a barometric or radar altimeter. The filter runs in real time onboard a NASA helicopter. It processes raw pseudo and delta range measurements from a single channel sequential GPS receiver. The Kalman filter software interfaces are described in detail, followed by a description of the filter algorithm, including the basic propagation and measurement update equations. The performance during flight tests is reviewed and discussed. Task 2 describes a refinement performed on the lateral and vertical steering algorithms developed on a previous contract. The refinements include modification of the internal logic to allow more diverse inflight initialization procedures, further data smoothing and compensation for system induced time delays. Task 3 describes the TAU Corp participation in the analysis of the real time Kalman navigation filter. The performance was compared to that of the Z-set filter in flight and to the laser tracker position data during post test analysis. This analysis allowed a more optimum selection of the parameters of the filter.

Geier, G. J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Characterization of frequency standard instability by estimation of their covariance matrix

The popular 3-cornered hat method used for evaluating the noise contributions of individual frequency standards is revisited. This method is used in several cases, but sometimes the results are not consistent because one or more estimated clock variances turn out to be negative. Different causes of this unacceptable result have been conjectured: among them one regards the hypothesis of uncorrelated clocks, essential in this method. Since recently realistic cases of correlation between clocks, mainly due to the environmental conditions, have been observed, this paper proposes an entirely revisited version of the 3-cornered hat method which permits to evaluate the individual variances and also the possible covariances between clocks, by relaxing the hypothesis of uncorrelation. The uncertainty and the lack of contemporaneity of the measurement series are assumed to be negligible. The lack of the uncorrelation hypothesis calls for a more general mathematical model leading to an underdetermined linear system. The estimates of the (co)variances of the measurement series us well us those of the individual clocks are introduced by means of the scalar product of the related time series and arranged in the respective covariance matrices S and R. Since covariance matrix is positive definite by definition, the problem consists in estimating the unknown R, subject to the constraint of positive definiteness, from the known S. Unfortunately, this constraint is not sufficient to estimate R. Therefore a suitable optimization criterion is proposed, which assures the positive definiteness of R and, at the same time, minimizes the global correlation among clocks. Examples of frequency instability measurements processed by the "classical" 3-cornered hat method and the here-revisited method are presented showing that the solutions are identical only when the uncorrelation hypothesis doesn't violate the positive definiteness of R.

PatriziaTravella↗
NASA NTRS2019

Forecasting the Ambient Solar Wind with Numerical Models. I. On the Implementation of an Operational Framework

The ambient solar wind conditions in interplanetary space and in the near-Earth environment are determined by activity on the Sun. Steady solar wind streams modulate the propagation behavior of interplanetary coronal mass ejections and are themselves an important driver of recurrent geomagnetic storm activity. The knowledge of the ambient solar wind flows and fields is thus an essential component of successful space weather forecasting. Here, we present an implementation of an operational framework for operating, validating, and optimizing models of the ambient solar wind flow on the example of Carrington Rotation 2077. We reconstruct the global topology of the coronal magnetic field using the potential field source surface model (PFSS) and the Schatten current sheet model (SCS) and discuss three empirical relationships for specifying the solar wind conditions near the Sun, namely the Wang–Sheeley (WS) model, the distance from the coronal hole boundary model (DCHB), and the Wang-Sheeley–Arge (WSA) model. By adding uncertainty in the latitude about the sub-Earth point, we select an ensemble of initial conditions and map the solutions to Earth by the Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation (HUX) model. We assess the forecasting performance from a continuous variable validation and find that the WSA model most accurately predicts the solar wind speed time series (RMSE≈83 km/s). We note that the process of ensemble forecasting slightly improves the forecasting performance of all solar wind models investigated. We conclude that the implemented framework is well suited for studying the relationship between coronal magnetic fields and the properties of the ambient solar wind flow in the near-Earth environment.

Reiss, Martin A.↗