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At least 883 records · Page 49
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Space Radiation Cancer, Circulatory Disease and CNS Risks for Near Earth Asteroid and Mars Missions: Uncertainty Estimates for Never-Smokers

The uncertainties in estimating the health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are a major limitation to the length of space missions and the evaluation of potential risk mitigation approaches. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced cancer death (REID), and protects against uncertainties in risks projections using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals after propagating the error from all model factors (environment and organ exposure, risk coefficients, dose-rate modifiers, and quality factors). Because there are potentially significant late mortality risks from diseases of the circulatory system and central nervous system (CNS) which are less well defined than cancer risks, the cancer REID limit is not necessarily conservative. In this report, we discuss estimates of lifetime risks from space radiation and new estimates of model uncertainties are described. The key updates to the NASA risk projection model are: 1) Revised values for low LET risk coefficients for tissue specific cancer incidence, with incidence rates transported to an average U.S. population to estimate the probability of Risk of Exposure Induced Cancer (REIC) and REID. 2) An analysis of smoking attributable cancer risks for never-smokers that shows significantly reduced lung cancer risk as well as overall cancer risks from radiation compared to risk estimated for the average U.S. population. 3) Derivation of track structure based quality functions depends on particle fluence, charge number, Z and kinetic energy, E. 4) The assignment of a smaller maximum in quality function for leukemia than for solid cancers. 5) The use of the ICRP tissue weights is shown to over-estimate cancer risks from SPEs by a factor of 2 or more. Summing cancer risks for each tissue is recommended as a more accurate approach to estimate SPE cancer risks. 6) Additional considerations on circulatory and CNS disease risks. Our analysis shows that an individual s history of smoking exposure has a larger impact on GCR risk estimates than amounts of radiation shielding or age at exposure (amongst adults). Risks for never-smokers compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for never-smokers, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity and esophagus, and leukemia. The relative contribution of CNS risks to the overall space radiation detriment is potentially increased for never-smokers such as most astronauts. Problems in estimating risks for former smokers and the influence of second-hand smoke are discussed. Compared to the LET approximation, the new track structure derived radiation quality functions lead to a reduced risk for relativistic energy particles and increased risks for intermediate energy particles. Revised estimates for the number of safe days in space at solar minimum for heavy shielding conditions are described for never-smokers and the average U.S. population. Results show that missions to near Earth asteroids (NEA) or Mars violate NASA's radiation safety standards with the current levels of uncertainties. Greater improvements in risk estimates for never-smokers are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Orbit-determination performance of Doppler data for interplanetary cruise trajectories. Part 1: Error analysis methodology

An error covariance analysis methodology is used to investigate different weighting schemes for two-way (coherent) Doppler data in the presence of transmission-media and observing-platform calibration errors. The analysis focuses on orbit-determination performance in the interplanetary cruise phase of deep-space missions. Analytical models for the Doppler observable and for transmission-media and observing-platform calibration errors are presented, drawn primarily from previous work. Previously published analytical models were improved upon by the following: (1) considering the effects of errors in the calibration of radio signal propagation through the troposphere and ionosphere as well as station-location errors; (2) modelling the spacecraft state transition matrix using a more accurate piecewise-linear approximation to represent the evolution of the spacecraft trajectory; and (3) incorporating Doppler data weighting functions that are functions of elevation angle, which reduce the sensitivity of the estimated spacecraft trajectory to troposphere and ionosphere calibration errors. The analysis is motivated by the need to develop suitable weighting functions for two-way Doppler data acquired at 8.4 GHz (X-band) and 32 GHz (Ka-band). This weighting is likely to be different from that in the weighting functions currently in use; the current functions were constructed originally for use with 2.3 GHz (S-band) Doppler data, which are affected much more strongly by the ionosphere than are the higher frequency data.

Ulvestad, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Optimal experimental designs for the estimation of thermal properties of composite materials

Reliable estimation of thermal properties is extremely important in the utilization of new advanced materials, such as composite materials. The accuracy of these estimates can be increased if the experiments are designed carefully. The objectives of this study are to design optimal experiments to be used in the prediction of these thermal properties and to then utilize these designs in the development of an estimation procedure to determine the effective thermal properties (thermal conductivity and volumetric heat capacity). The experiments were optimized by choosing experimental parameters that maximize the temperature derivatives with respect to all of the unknown thermal properties. This procedure has the effect of minimizing the confidence intervals of the resulting thermal property estimates. Both one-dimensional and two-dimensional experimental designs were optimized. A heat flux boundary condition is required in both analyses for the simultaneous estimation of the thermal properties. For the one-dimensional experiment, the parameters optimized were the heating time of the applied heat flux, the temperature sensor location, and the experimental time. In addition to these parameters, the optimal location of the heat flux was also determined for the two-dimensional experiments. Utilizing the optimal one-dimensional experiment, the effective thermal conductivity perpendicular to the fibers and the effective volumetric heat capacity were then estimated for an IM7-Bismaleimide composite material. The estimation procedure used is based on the minimization of a least squares function which incorporates both calculated and measured temperatures and allows for the parameters to be estimated simultaneously.

Scott, Elaine P.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Probing thick vegetation canopies with a field microwave scatterometer

with a narrow-beam field microwave scatterometer having a variable slant range and a small slant-range resolution, investigators can estimate the distribution of backscattering sources in a medium as a function of slant range. From this, they can calculate the backscattering coefficient. With less confidence, they can estimate the volume extinction coefficient, the volume density of backscattering cross sections, the transmittance, and the backscattering coefficient of a semiinfinite medium with the same volumetric microwave properties. These parameters allow one to understand the interactions of microwaves with media such as vegetation canopies with their substrates.

Paris, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS1998

The Aviation System Analysis Capability Airport Capacity and Delay Models

The ASAC Airport Capacity Model and the ASAC Airport Delay Model support analyses of technologies addressing airport capacity. NASA's Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC) Airport Capacity Model estimates the capacity of an airport as a function of weather, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) procedures, traffic characteristics, and the level of technology available. Airport capacity is presented as a Pareto frontier of arrivals per hour versus departures per hour. The ASAC Airport Delay Model allows the user to estimate the minutes of arrival delay for an airport, given its (weather dependent) capacity. Historical weather observations and demand patterns are provided by ASAC as inputs to the delay model. The ASAC economic models can translate a reduction in delay minutes into benefit dollars.

Lee, David A.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Statistical estimation of service cracks and maintenance cost for aircraft structures

A method is developed for the statistical estimation of the number of cracks to be repaired in service as well as the repair and the maintenance costs. The present approach accounts for the statistical distribution of the initial crack size, the statistical nature of the NDI technique used for detecting the crack, and the renewal process for the crack propagation of repaired cracks. The mean and the standard deviation of the cumulative number of cracks to be repaired are computed as a function of service time. The statistics of the costs of repair and maintenance, expressed in terms of the percentage of the cost of replacement, are estimated as a function of service time. The results of the present study provide relevant information for the decision of fleet management, the estimation of life cycle cost, and procurement specifications. The present study is essential to the design and cost optimization of aircraft structures.

Yang, J.-N.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Multilayered models for electromagnetic reflection amplitudes

The remote sensing of snowpack characteristics with surface installations or with an airborne system could have important applications in water resource management and flood prediction. To derive some insight into such applications, the electromagnetic response of multilayer snow models is analyzed. Normally incident plane waves are assumed at frequencies ranging from 10 to the 6th power to 10 to the 10th power Hz, and amplitude reflection coefficients are calculated for models having various snow-layer combinations, including ice sheets. Layers are defined by a thickness, permittivity, and conductivity; the electrical parameters are constant or prescribed functions of frequency. To illustrate the effect of various layering combinations, results are given in the form of curves of amplitude reflection coefficients, versus frequency for a variety of models. Under simplifying assumptions, the snow thickness and effective dielectric constant can be estimated from the reflection coefficient variations as a function of frequency.

Linlor, W. I.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Identification of Time-Varying Pilot Control Behavior in Multi-Axis Control Tasks

Recent developments in fly-by-wire control architectures for rotorcraft have introduced new interest in the identification of time-varying pilot control behavior in multi-axis control tasks. In this paper a maximum likelihood estimation method is used to estimate the parameters of a pilot model with time-dependent sigmoid functions to characterize time-varying human control behavior. An experiment was performed by 9 general aviation pilots who had to perform a simultaneous roll and pitch control task with time-varying aircraft dynamics. In 8 different conditions, the axis containing the time-varying dynamics and the growth factor of the dynamics were varied, allowing for an analysis of the performance of the estimation method when estimating time-dependent parameter functions. In addition, a detailed analysis of pilots adaptation to the time-varying aircraft dynamics in both the roll and pitch axes could be performed. Pilot control behavior in both axes was significantly affected by the time-varying aircraft dynamics in roll and pitch, and by the growth factor. The main effect was found in the axis that contained the time-varying dynamics. However, pilot control behavior also changed over time in the axis not containing the time-varying aircraft dynamics. This indicates that some cross coupling exists in the perception and control processes between the roll and pitch axes.

Zaal, Peter M. T.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Optical Characterization of DebriSat Fragments in Support of Orbital Debris Environmental Models

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) develops, maintains, and updates orbital debris environmental models, such as the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM), to support satellite designers and operators by estimating the risk from orbital debris impacts on their vehicles in orbit. Updates to ORDEM utilize the most recent validated datasets from radar, optical, and in situ sources to provide estimates of the debris flux as a function of size, material density, impact speed, and direction along a mission orbit. On-going efforts within the NASA ODPO to update the next version of ORDEM include a new parameter that highly affects the damage risk – shape. Shape can be binned by material density and size to better understand the damage assessments on spacecraft. The in situ and laboratory research activities at the NASA ODPO are focused on cataloging and characterizing fragments from a laboratory hypervelocity-impact test using a high-fidelity, mock-up satellite, DebriSat, in controlled and instrumented laboratory conditions. DebriSat is representative of present-day, low Earth orbit satellites, having been constructed with modern spacecraft materials and techniques. The DebriSat fragment ensemble provides a variety of shapes, bulk densities, and dimensions. Fragments down to 2 mm in size are being characterized by their physical and derived properties. A subset of fragments is being analyzed further in NASA’s Optical Measurement Center (OMC) using broadband, bidirectional reflectance measurements to provide insight into the optical-based NASA Size Estimation Model. Additionally, pre-impact spectral measurements on a subset of DebriSat materials were acquired for baseline material characterization. This paper provides an overview of DebriSat, the status of the project, and ongoing fragment characterization efforts within the OMC.

Heather M Cowardin↗
NASA NTRS2021

Optical Characterization of DebriSat Fragments in Support of Orbital Debris Environmental Models

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) develops, maintains, and updates orbital debris environmental models, such as the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM), to support satellite designers and operators by estimating the risk from orbital debris impacts on their vehicles in orbit. Updates to ORDEM utilize the most recent validated datasets from radar, optical, and in situ sources to provide estimates of the debris flux as a function of size, material density, impact speed, and direction along a mission orbit. On-going efforts within the NASA ODPO to update the next version of ORDEM include a new parameter that highly affects the damage risk – shape. Shape can be binned by material density and size to better understand the damage assessments on spacecraft. The in situ and laboratory research activities at the NASA ODPO are focused on cataloging and characterizing fragments from a laboratory hypervelocity-impact test using a high-fidelity, mock-up satellite, DebriSat, in controlled and instrumented laboratory conditions. DebriSat is representative of present-day, low Earth orbit satellites, having been constructed with modern spacecraft materials and techniques. The DebriSat fragment ensemble provides a variety of shapes, bulk densities, and dimensions. Fragments down to 2 mm in size are being characterized by their physical and derived properties. A subset of fragments is being analyzed further in NASA’s Optical Measurement Center (OMC) using broadband, bidirectional reflectance measurements to provide insight into the optical-based NASA Size Estimation Model. Additionally, pre-impact spectral measurements on a subset of DebriSat materials were acquired for baseline material characterization. This paper provides an overview of DebriSat, the status of the project, and ongoing fragment characterization efforts within the OMC.

Heather M. Cowardin↗
NASA NTRS1983

The spatial correlation function of rich clusters of galaxies

A series of objective statistical estimators is applied to directly study the three-dimensional distribution of rich clusters, using a recently completed redshift sample of 104 Abell clusters out to distance class four and galactic latitude of 30 deg or more. The sample and the relevant positional and redshift selection effects are discussed, and the two-point angular correlation function and nearest-neighbor distribution of clusters in the sample are determined, as well as in the larger D = 5+6 sample and in several subsamples of different richness classes and latitude zones. The redshift correlation function of clusters for various angular separations on the sky is examined as a test for the reality of the observed angular correlations. The two-point spatial correlation function of clusters in the sample is determined, and the consistency among the three observed correlation functions is tested. A model that describes all the observed correlations is presented.

Bahcall, N. A.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Fine Sun Sensor Field of View Calibration

The fine Sun sensor (FSS) used on many spacecraft consists of two independent single-axis sensors, nominally mounted perpendicularly, that detect Sun angle across a typical field of view of +/- 32 degrees. The nonlinear function that maps the measured counts into an observed angle is called the transfer function. The FSS transfer function provided by the manufacturer consists of nine parameters for each of the two sensitive axes. An improved transfer function has been previously reported that achieves a significant accuracy improvement across the entire field of view. This new function expands the parameter set to 12 coefficients per axis and includes cross terms combining counts from both axes. To make best use of the FSS for spacecraft attitude determination, it must be calibrated after launch. We are interested in simplifying the postlaunch calibration procedure for estimating improvements to the 24 parameters in the transfer function. This paper discusses how to recombine the terms of the transfer function to reduce their redundancy without decreasing its accuracy and then presents an attitude dependent procedure for estimating the parameters. The end result is a calibration algorithm that is easier to use and does not sacrifice accuracy. Results of calibration using on-orbit data are presented.

Sedlak, Joseph E.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Surveillance system and method having parameter estimation and operating mode partitioning

A system and method for monitoring an apparatus or process asset including creating a process model comprised of a plurality of process submodels each correlative to at least one training data subset partitioned from an unpartitioned training data set and each having an operating mode associated thereto; acquiring a set of observed signal data values from the asset; determining an operating mode of the asset for the set of observed signal data values; selecting a process submodel from the process model as a function of the determined operating mode of the asset; calculating a set of estimated signal data values from the selected process submodel for the determined operating mode; and determining asset status as a function of the calculated set of estimated signal data values for providing asset surveillance and/or control.

Bickford, Randall L.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Probabilistic Assessment of Radiation Risk for Astronauts in Space Missions

Accurate predictions of the health risks to astronauts from space radiation exposure are necessary for enabling future lunar and Mars missions. Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons, (less than 100 MeV); and galactic cosmic rays (GCR), which include protons and heavy ions of higher energies. While the expected frequency of SPEs is strongly influenced by the solar activity cycle, SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature. A solar modulation model has been developed for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment, which is represented by the deceleration potential, phi. The risk of radiation exposure from SPEs during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) or in lightly shielded vehicles is a major concern for radiation protection, including determining the shielding and operational requirements for astronauts and hardware. To support the probabilistic risk assessment for EVAs, which would be up to 15% of crew time on lunar missions, we estimated the probability of SPE occurrence as a function of time within a solar cycle using a nonhomogeneous Poisson model to fit the historical database of measurements of protons with energy > 30 MeV, (phi)30. The resultant organ doses and dose equivalents, as well as effective whole body doses for acute and cancer risk estimations are analyzed for a conceptual habitat module and a lunar rover during defined space mission periods. This probabilistic approach to radiation risk assessment from SPE and GCR is in support of mission design and operational planning to manage radiation risks for space exploration.

Kim, Myung-Hee↗
NASA NTRS1980

Model error estimation for large space systems

In-flight estimation of large structure model errors may have to be carried out in order to detect inevitable deficiencies in large structure controller/estimator models. These error estimates can most efficiently be obtained by the minimization of a quadratic functional of the model errors and on the subsequent analysis of the resulting optimal model error estimates. An integral operator approach to estimation leads to a geometrical interpretation of the model error estimation process. One of the significant insights gained with this interpretation is that the actual but unknown model errors can be decomposed as the sum of two distinct components that are orthogonal in some sense. One of these components is a so-called minimal error vector that retains many of the significant dynamics of the actual errors. The basic ideas in the model error estimation approach are first set forth with a two-dimensional analogy that has most of the essential features of the general estimation problem. The generalized results are then established and their application to a reference large structure model illustrated.

Rodriguez, G.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Aircraft- and tower-based fluxes of carbon dioxide, latent, and sensible heat

Fluxes of carbon dioxide, water vapor, and sensible heat obtained over a grassland ecosystem, during the First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) Field Experiment (FIFE), using an aircraft- and two tower-based systems are compared for several days in 1987 and in 1989. The tower-based cospectral estimates of CO2, sensible heat, water vapor, and momentum, expressed as a function of wavenumber K times sampling height z, are relatively similar to the aircraft-based estimates for K x z greater than 0.1. A measurable contribution to the fluxes is observed by tower-based systems at K x z less than 0.01 but not by the aircraft-based system operating at an altitude of approximately 100 m over a 15 x 15 km area. Using all available simultaneous aircraft and tower data, flux estimates by both systems were shown to be highly correlated. As expected from the spatial variations of the greenness index, surface extrapolation of airborne flux estimates tended to lie between those of the two tower sites. The average fluxes obtained, on July 11, 1987, and August 4, 1989, by flying a grid pattern over the FIFE site agreed with the two tower data sets for CO2, but sensible and latent heat were smaller than those obtained by the tower-based systems. However, in general, except for a small underestimation due to the long wavelength contributions and due to flux divergence with height, the differences between the aircraft- and tower-based surface estimates of fluxes appear to be mainly attributable to differences in footprint, that is, differences in the area contributing to the surface flux estimates.

Desjardins, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Estimating Slopes In Images Of Terrain By Use Of BRDF

Proposed method of estimating slopes of terrain features based on use of bidirectional reflectivity distribution function (BRDF) in analyzing aerial photographs, satellite video images, or other images produced by remote sensors. Estimated slopes integrated along horizontal coordinates to obtain estimated heights; generating three-dimensional terrain maps. Method does not require coregistration of terrain features in pairs of images acquired from slightly different perspectives nor requires Sun or other source of illumination to be low in sky over terrain of interest. On contrary, best when Sun is high. Works at almost all combinations of illumination and viewing angles.

Scholl, Marija S.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Experimental implementation of adaptive control for flexible space structures

On-going research at The Aerospace Corporation studying the feasibility of applying adaptive control methodologies to the control of flexible space structures is described. A laboratory testbed was established to test system identification and control approaches. The laboratory set-up and controller design approach are discussed. The ARX least squares parameter estimation technique is analyzed in terms of frequency domain transfer function bias error. This analysis approach enables the determination of the effects of sampling rate, sensor type, and data prefiltering on the estimation performance. The ability to identify space structure dynamics over a range of frequencies is shown to be heavily dependent on these factors.

Mcgraw, Gary A.↗