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At least 883 records · Page 49

Design and Performance of a Miniature Lidar Wind Profiler (MLWP)

The directional velocity of the wind is one of the most critical components for understanding meteorological and other dynamic atmospheric processes. Altitude-resolved wind velocity measurements, also known as wind profiles or soundings, are especially necessary for providing data for meteorological forecasting and overall global circulation models (GCM's). Wind profiler data are also critical in identifying possible dangerous weather conditions for aviation. Furthermore, a system has yet to be developed for wind profiling from the surface of Mars which could also meet the stringent requirements on size, weight, and power of such a mission. Obviously, a novel wind profiling approach based on small and efficient technology is required to meet these needs. A lidar system based on small and highly efficient semiconductor lasers is now feasible due to recent developments in the laser and detector technologies. The recent development of high detection efficiency (50%), silicon-based photon-counting detectors when combined with high laser pulse repetition rates and long receiver integration times has allowed these transmitter energies to be reduced to the order of microjoules per pulse. Aerosol lidar systems using this technique have been demonstrated for both Q-switched, diode-pumped solid-state laser transmitters (lambda = 523 nm) and semiconductor diode lasers (lambda = 830 nm); however, a wind profiling lidar based on this technique has yet to be developed. We will present an investigation of a semiconductor-laser-based lidar system which uses the "edge-filter" direct detection technique to infer Doppler frequency shifts of signals backscattered from aerosols in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Our investigation will incorporate a novel semiconductor laser design which mitigates the deleterious effects of frequency chirp in pulsed diode lasers, a problem which has limited their use in such systems in the past. Our miniature lidar could be used on a future Mars lander and perhaps find its own niche in terrestrial applications due to its potential low cost an small size.

Cornwell, Donald M., Jr.↗

A semi-Lagrangian method for detecting and tracking deep convective clouds in geostationary satellite observations

Automated methods for the detection and tracking of deep convective clouds in geostationary satellite imagery have a vital role in both the forecasting of severe storms and research into their behaviour. Studying the interactions and feedbacks between multiple deep convective clouds (DCC), however, poses a challenge for existing algorithms due to the necessary compromise between false detection and missed detection errors. We utilise an optical flow method to determine the motion of deep convective clouds in GOES-16 ABI imagery in order to construct a semi-Lagrangian framework for the motion of the cloud field, independently of the detection and tracking of cloud objects. The semi-Lagrangian framework allows severe storms to be simultaneously detected and tracked in both spatial and temporal dimensions. For the purpose of this framework we have developed a novel Lagrangian convolution method and a number of novel implementations of morphological image operations that account for the motion of observed objects. These novel methods allow the accurate extension of computer vision techniques to the temporal domain for moving objects such as DCCs. By combining this framework with existing methods for detecting DCCs (including detection of growing cores through cloud top cooling and detection of anvil clouds using brightness temperature), we show that the novel framework enables reductions in errors due to both false and missed detections compared to any of the individual methods, reducing the need to compromise when compared with existing frameworks. The novel framework enables the continuous tracking of anvil clouds associated with detected deep convection after convective activity has stopped, enabling the study of the entire life cycle of DCCs and their associated anvils. Furthermore, we expect this framework to be applicable to a wide range of cases including the detection and tracking of low-level clouds and other atmospheric phenomena. In addition, this framework may be used to combine observations from multiple sources, including satellite observations, weather radar and reanalysis model data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Kalman Filter and High Performance Computing at NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO)

Atmospheric data assimilation is a method of combining actual observations with model simulations to produce a more accurate description of the earth system than the observations alone provide. The output of data assimilation, sometimes called "the analysis", are accurate regular, gridded datasets of observed and unobserved variables. This is used not only for weather forecasting but is becoming increasingly important for climate research. For example, these datasets may be used to assess retrospectively energy budgets or the effects of trace gases such as ozone. This allows researchers to understand processes driving weather and climate, which have important scientific and policy implications. The primary goal of the NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO) is to provide datasets for climate research and to support NASA satellite and aircraft missions. This presentation will: (1) describe ongoing work on the advanced Kalman/Lagrangian filter parallel algorithm for the assimilation of trace gases in the stratosphere; and (2) discuss the Kalman filter in relation to other presentations from the DAO on Four Dimensional Data Assimilation at this meeting. Although the designation "Kalman filter" is often used to describe the overarching work, the series of talks will show that the scientific software and the kind of parallelization techniques that are being developed at the DAO are very different depending on the type of problem being considered, the extent to which the problem is mission critical, and the degree of Software Engineering that has to be applied.

Lyster, Peter M.↗

Forecasting of in situ electron energy loss spectroscopy

Abstract Forecasting models are a central part of many control systems, where high-consequence decisions must be made on long latency control variables. These models are particularly relevant for emerging artificial intelligence (AI)-guided instrumentation, in which prescriptive knowledge is needed to guide autonomous decision-making. Here we describe the implementation of a long short-term memory model (LSTM) for forecasting in situ electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS) data, one of the richest analytical probes of materials and chemical systems. We describe key considerations for data collection, preprocessing, training, validation, and benchmarking, showing how this approach can yield powerful predictive insight into order-disorder phase transitions. Finally, we comment on how such a model may integrate with emerging AI-guided instrumentation for powerful high-speed experimentation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Virtual Flight Demonstration of the Stratospheric Dual-Aircraft Platform

A baseline configuration for the dual-aircraft platform (DAP) concept is described and evaluated in a physics-based flight dynamics simulations for two month-long missions as a communications relay in the lower stratosphere above central Florida, within 150-miles of downtown Orlando.The DAP configuration features two large glider-like (130 ft wing span) unmanned aerial vehicles connected via a long adjustable cable (total extendible length of 3000 ft) which effectively sail without propulsion using available wind shear. Use of onboard LiDAR wind profilers to forecast wind distributions are found to be necessary to enable the platform to efficiently adjust flight conditions to remain sailing by finding sufficient wind shear across the platform. The aircraft derive power from solar cells, like a conventional solar aircraft, but also extract wind power using the propeller as a turbine when there is an excess of wind shear available.Month-long atmospheric profiles (at 3-5 min intervals) in the vicinity of 60,000-ft are derived from archived data measured by the 50-Mhz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler at Cape Canaveral and used in the DAP flight simulations. A cursory evaluation of these datasets show that sufficient wind shear for DAP sailing is persistent, suggesting that DAP could potentially sail over 90% of the month-long durations even when limited by modest ascent/descent rates.DAP's novel guidance software uses a non-linear constrained optimization technique to define waypoints such that sailing mode of flight is maintained where possible, and minimal thrust is required where sailing is not practical. A set of constraints are identified which result in waypoints that enable efficient flight (i.e., minimal use of propulsion) over the two month-long flight simulations. Waypoint solutions may need to be tabulated for a wide range of potential atmospheric conditions and stored onboard for quick retrieval on a real DAP.DAP's flight control software uses an unconventional mixture of spacecraft and aircraft control techniques. Flight simulations confirms that this controls approach enables the platform to consistently reach successive waypoints over the month-long flight simulations.The ability of DAP to transition between the sailing mode (i.e., cable tension is high) and standard formation flight (i.e., cable tension is low) is a vital capability (e.g., to enable intermittent turns while stationkeeping). A new method to perform these transitions has been identified and characterized with flight simulation which requires special aircraft modifications.The energy-usage of the DAP configuration during two month-long stationkeeping missions over central Florida (i.e., stationkeeping over Orlando) is evaluated and compared to that of a pure solar aircraft of the same weight and aerodynamic performance. DAP is shown to consistently reduce net propulsion usage while simultaneously increasing solar energy capture.A baseline 700 GHz communications system is described and its performance evaluated for the proposed mission over central Florida. It is found that the variable roll orientation of the aircraft would increase the power required to maintain coverage over the stationkeeping radius of 150 miles (e.g., by as much as 100% when DAP is 150 miles from Orlando), compared to level flight. This effect can be mitigated via additional antenna design complexity or a more restricted stationkeeping radius.

Demonstrations↗

Multi-Scale Integrated Monitoring System for Enhancing Methane Emission Detection, Quantification & Prediction

This report details the progress and findings of a comprehensive study on reviewing existing solutions, identifying technology gaps, and formulating an “all-in-one” integrated strategy for developing the next-generation multiscale methane monitoring and modeling platform, conducted under grant number DE-FE0032292. Co-led by Dr. David Ebert, Dr. Binbin Weng, and Dr. Chenghao Wang at the University of Oklahoma, the project’s goal was to develop an integrated approach for building this engineering platform to detect, quantify, and mitigate methane emissions across various temporal scale, spatial scales, and sectors. The planning grant study began with an extensive review of various methane sensing and monitoring technologies and systems, surveying over 100 technology providers globally. This review revealed the prevalence of optical methods over chemical methods in commercially available sensors, with Non-Dispersive Infrared (NDIR), Tunable Diode Laser Absorption Spectroscopy (TDLAS), and Optical Gas Imaging (OGI) cameras being the most prevalent options. A trend towards more advanced optical techniques was observed, driven by increased regulatory focus and technological advancements. The technical evaluation of these sensing technologies provided crucial insights into their capabilities and limitations. The study examined emerging technologies such as Differential Absorption LiDAR (DIAL), which show promise for high-precision and long-range detection. The team then investigated the features and application bandwidth of various sensing platforms, including handheld, fixed/stationary, mobile, aerials, and spaceborne monitors. Pilot field studies were conducted to assess the capabilities of solutions for different emission scenarios. Field work with sensor deployments was conducted at three distinct site types: an oil & gas industry site, a cattle ranching operation, and a waste processing facility. The team also conducted a thorough review of methane flux inverse modeling approaches, focused on physically based methods. These approaches were categorized into simple, intermediate, and advanced methods. A realtime WRF-GHG (Weather Research and Forecasting-Greenhouse Gas) modeling system was developed and applied, incorporating multiple data sources to guide field experiments and inform methane plume detection. The project identified and analyzed numerous categories of methane data sources, including satellite measurements, ground-based sensors, and inventory databases. Key platforms examined include EDGAR, EPA GHGI, NASA TROPOMI, Carbon Mapper, and Climate TRACE, among others. The team proposed an architecture for a comprehensive methane monitoring platform. This system incorporates multi-source data acquisition, advanced data processing and assimilation, interactive visualization tools, and analytical capabilities for emissions forecasting and scenario analysis. The proposed platform aims to provide a user-friendly interface catering to various stakeholders, from researchers to policymakers. The architecture includes sophisticated data ingestion methods, a centralized data warehouse, and advanced analytical tools for data fusion and interpretation. To ensure the relevance and effectiveness of the proposed system, a comprehensive survey was conducted to gather stakeholder input on system requirements. Key findings include a strong need for integrating various data types and formats, a preference for real-time data updates and advanced visualization tools, and a demand for user-friendly interfaces catering to different expertise levels.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Improved Ionospheric Electrodynamic Models and Application to Calculating Joule Heating Rates

Improved techniques have been developed for empirical modeling of the high-latitude electric potentials and magnetic field aligned currents (FAC) as a function of the solar wind parameters. The FAC model is constructed using scalar magnetic Euler potentials, and functions as a twin to the electric potential model. The improved models have more accurate field values as well as more accurate boundary locations. Non-linear saturation effects in the solar wind-magnetosphere coupling are also better reproduced. The models are constructed using a hybrid technique, which has spherical harmonic functions only within a small area at the pole. At lower latitudes the potentials are constructed from multiple Fourier series functions of longitude, at discrete latitudinal steps. It is shown that the two models can be used together in order to calculate the total Poynting flux and Joule heating in the ionosphere. An additional model of the ionospheric conductivity is not required in order to obtain the ionospheric currents and Joule heating, as the conductivity variations as a function of the solar inclination are implicitly contained within the FAC model's data. The models outputs are shown for various input conditions, as well as compared with satellite measurements. The calculations of the total Joule heating are compared with results obtained by the inversion of ground-based magnetometer measurements. Like their predecessors, these empirical models should continue to be a useful research and forecast tools.

Weimer, D. R.↗

Application of Hybrid Optimization-Expert System for Optimal Power Management on Board Space Power Station

The space power system has two sources of energy: photo-voltaic blankets and batteries. The optimal power management problem on-board has two broad operations: off-line power scheduling to determine the load allocation schedule of the next several hours based on the forecast of load and solar power availability. The nature of this study puts less emphasis on speed requirement for computation and more importance on the optimality of the solution. The second category problem, on-line power rescheduling, is needed in the event of occurrence of a contingency to optimally reschedule the loads to minimize the 'unused' or 'wasted' energy while keeping the priority on certain type of load and minimum disturbance of the original optimal schedule determined in the first-stage off-line study. The computational performance of the on-line 'rescheduler' is an important criterion and plays a critical role in the selection of the appropriate tool. The Howard University Center for Energy Systems and Control has developed a hybrid optimization-expert systems based power management program. The pre-scheduler has been developed using a non-linear multi-objective optimization technique called the Outer Approximation method and implemented using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). The optimization model has the capability of dealing with multiple conflicting objectives viz. maximizing energy utilization, minimizing the variation of load over a day, etc. and incorporates several complex interaction between the loads in a space system. The rescheduling is performed using an expert system developed in PROLOG which utilizes a rule-base for reallocation of the loads in an emergency condition viz. shortage of power due to solar array failure, increase of base load, addition of new activity, repetition of old activity etc. Both the modules handle decision making on battery charging and discharging and allocation of loads over a time-horizon of a day divided into intervals of 10 minutes. The models have been extensively tested using a case study for the Space Station Freedom and the results for the case study will be presented. Several future enhancements of the pre-scheduler and the 'rescheduler' have been outlined which include graphic analyzer for the on-line module, incorporating probabilistic considerations, including spatial location of the loads and the connectivity using a direct current (DC) load flow model.

Momoh, James↗

Spinoff 2009

Topics covered include: Image-Capture Devices Extend Medicine's Reach; Medical Devices Assess, Treat Balance Disorders; NASA Bioreactors Advance Disease Treatments; Robotics Algorithms Provide Nutritional Guidelines; "Anti-Gravity" Treadmills Speed Rehabilitation; Crew Management Processes Revitalize Patient Care; Hubble Systems Optimize Hospital Schedules; Web-based Programs Assess Cognitive Fitness; Electrolyte Concentrates Treat Dehydration; Tools Lighten Designs, Maintain Structural Integrity; Insulating Foams Save Money, Increase Safety; Polyimide Resins Resist Extreme Temperatures; Sensors Locate Radio Interference; Surface Operations Systems Improve Airport Efficiency; Nontoxic Resins Advance Aerospace Manufacturing; Sensors Provide Early Warning of Biological Threats; Robot Saves Soldier's Lives Overseas (MarcBot); Apollo-Era Life Raft Saves Hundreds of Sailors; Circuits Enhance Scientific Instruments and Safety Devices; Tough Textiles Protect Payloads and Public Safety Officers; Forecasting Tools Point to Fishing Hotspots; Air Purifiers Eliminate Pathogens, Preserve Food; Fabrics Protect Sensitive Skin from UV Rays; Phase Change Fabrics Control Temperature; Tiny Devices Project Sharp, Colorful Images; Star-Mapping Tools Enable Tracking of Endangered Animals; Nanofiber Filters Eliminate Contaminants; Modeling Innovations Advance Wind Energy Industry; Thermal Insulation Strips Conserve Energy; Satellite Respondent Buoys Identify Ocean Debris; Mobile Instruments Measure Atmospheric Pollutants; Cloud Imagers Offer New Details on Earth's Health; Antennas Lower Cost of Satellite Access; Feature Detection Systems Enhance Satellite Imagery; Chlorophyll Meters Aid Plant Nutrient Management; Telemetry Boards Interpret Rocket, Airplane Engine Data; Programs Automate Complex Operations Monitoring; Software Tools Streamline Project Management; Modeling Languages Refine Vehicle Design; Radio Relays Improve Wireless Products; Advanced Sensors Boost Optical Communication, Imaging; Tensile Fabrics Enhance Architecture Around the World; Robust Light Filters Support Powerful Imaging Devices; Thermoelectric Devices Cool, Power Electronics; Innovative Tools Advance Revolutionary Weld Technique; Methods Reduce Cost, Enhance Quality of Nanotubes; Gauging Systems Monitor Cryogenic Liquids; Voltage Sensors Monitor Harmful Static; and Compact Instruments Measure Heat Potential.

Source record↗

An Overview of Scientific and Space Weather Results from the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) Mission

The Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) Mission of the Air Force Research Laboratory is described. C/NOFS science objectives may be organized into three categories: (1) to understand physical processes active in the background ionosphere and thermosphere in which plasma instabilities grow; (2) to identify mechanisms that trigger or quench the plasma irregularities responsible for signal degradation; and (3) to determine how the plasma irregularities affect the propagation of electromagnetic waves. The satellite was launched in April, 2008 into a low inclination (13 deg), elliptical (400 x 850 km) orbit. The satellite sensors measure the following parameters in situ: ambient and fluctuating electron densities, AC and DC electric and magnetic fields, ion drifts and large scale ion composition, ion and electron temperatures, and neutral winds. C/NOFS is also equipped with a GPS occultation receiver and a radio beacon. In addition to the satellite sensors, complementary ground-based measurements, theory, and advanced modeling techniques are also important parts of the mission. We report scientific and space weather highlights of the mission after nearly four years in orbit

Pfaff, R.↗

Multivariate Error Covariance Estimates by Monte-Carlo Simulation for Assimilation Studies in the Pacific Ocean

One of the most difficult aspects of ocean state estimation is the prescription of the model forecast error covariances. The paucity of ocean observations limits our ability to estimate the covariance structures from model-observation differences. In most practical applications, simple covariances are usually prescribed. Rarely are cross-covariances between different model variables used. Here a comparison is made between a univariate Optimal Interpolation (UOI) scheme and a multivariate OI algorithm (MvOI) in the assimilation of ocean temperature. In the UOI case only temperature is updated using a Gaussian covariance function and in the MvOI salinity, zonal and meridional velocities as well as temperature, are updated using an empirically estimated multivariate covariance matrix. Earlier studies have shown that a univariate OI has a detrimental effect on the salinity and velocity fields of the model. Apparently, in a sequential framework it is important to analyze temperature and salinity together. For the MvOI an estimation of the model error statistics is made by Monte-Carlo techniques from an ensemble of model integrations. An important advantage of using an ensemble of ocean states is that it provides a natural way to estimate cross-covariances between the fields of different physical variables constituting the model state vector, at the same time incorporating the model's dynamical and thermodynamical constraints as well as the effects of physical boundaries. Only temperature observations from the Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean array have been assimilated in this study. In order to investigate the efficacy of the multivariate scheme two data assimilation experiments are validated with a large independent set of recently published subsurface observations of salinity, zonal velocity and temperature. For reference, a third control run with no data assimilation is used to check how the data assimilation affects systematic model errors. While the performance of the UOI and MvOI is similar with respect to the temperature field, the salinity and velocity fields are greatly improved when multivariate correction is used, as evident from the analyses of the rms differences of these fields and independent observations. The MvOI assimilation is found to improve upon the control run in generating the water masses with properties close to the observed, while the UOI failed to maintain the temperature and salinity structure.

Borovikov, Anna↗

A Goddard Multi-Scale Modeling System with Unified Physics

Numerical cloud resolving models (CRMs), which are based the non-hydrostatic equations of motion, have been extensively applied to cloud-scale and mesoscale processes during the past four decades. Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that CRMs agree with observations in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Cloud resolving models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and regional scale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a szrper-parameterization or multi-scale modeling -framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign can provide initial conditions as well as validation through utilizing the Earth Satellite simulators. At Goddard, we have developed a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics. The modeling system consists a coupled GCM-CRM (or MMF); a state-of-the-art weather research forecast model (WRF) and a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model). In these models, the same microphysical schemes (2ICE, several 3ICE), radiation (including explicitly calculated cloud optical properties), and surface models are applied. In addition, a comprehensive unified Earth Satellite simulator has been developed at GSFC, which is designed to fully utilize the multi-scale modeling system. A brief review of the multi-scale modeling system with unified physics/simulator and examples is presented in this article.

Tao, W.K.↗

Mechanisms and Observations of Coronal Dimming for the 2010 August 7 Event

Coronal dimming of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) emission has the potential to be a useful forecaster of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). As emitting material leaves the corona, a temporary void is left behind which can be observed in spectral images and irradiance measurements. The velocity and mass of the CMEs should impact the character of those observations. However, other physical processes can confuse the observations. We describe these processes and the expected observational signature, with special emphasis placed on the differences. We then apply this understanding to a coronal dimming event with an associated CME that occurred on 2010 August 7. Data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory's (SDO) Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and EUV Variability Experiment (EVE) are used for observations of the dimming, while the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory's (SoHO) Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) and the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory's (STEREO) COR1 and COR2 are used to obtain velocity and mass estimates for the associated CME. We develop a technique for mitigating temperature effects in coronal dimming from full-disk irradiance measurements taken by EVE. We find that for this event, nearly 100% of the dimming is due to mass loss in the corona.

Solar↗

Improving AIRS Radiance Spectra in High Contrast Scenes Using MODIS

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the EOS Aqua Spacecraft was launched on May 4, 2002. AIRS acquires hyperspectral infrared radiances in 2378 channels ranging in wavelength from 3.7-15.4 microns with spectral resolution of better than 1200, and spatial resolution of 13.5 km with global daily coverage. The AIRS is designed to measure temperature and water vapor profiles for improvement in weather forecast accuracy and improved understanding of climate processes. As with most instruments, the AIRS Point Spread Functions (PSFs) are not the same for all detectors. When viewing a non-uniform scene, this causes a significant radiometric error in some channels that is scene dependent and cannot be removed without knowledge of the underlying scene. The magnitude of the error depends on the combination of non-uniformity of the AIRS spatial response for a given channel and the non-uniformity of the scene, but is typically only noticeable in about 1% of the scenes and about 10% of the channels. The current solution is to avoid those channels when performing geophysical retrievals. In this effort we use data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument to provide information on the scene uniformity that is used to correct the AIRS data. For the vast majority of channels and footprints the technique works extremely well when compared to a Principal Component (PC) reconstruction of the AIRS channels. In some cases where the scene has high inhomogeneity in an irregular pattern, and in some channels, the method can actually degrade the spectrum. Most of the degraded channels appear to be slightly affected by random noise introduced in the process, but those with larger degradation may be affected by alignment errors in the AIRS relative to MODIS or uncertainties in the PSF. Despite these errors, the methodology shows the ability to correct AIRS radiances in non-uniform scenes under some of the worst case conditions and improves the ability to match AIRS and MODIS radiances in non-uniform scenes.

spatial↗

Conservative-coordinate transformations for atmospheric measurements

This lecture describes a technique by which atmospheric measurements of trace species with medium to long lifetimes can be 'coincidentally' compared and validated even though measurements are taken at different locations and different times In other words, the method, under suitable counditions, can remove a large amount of the natural meteorological variability. The technique involves the use of quasi-Lagrangian or conservative coordinates - air parcel tags which are invariant or nearly invariant under the motion of the parcel. The technique is called 'reconstruction', since measurements taken at one location can be reconstructed at different locations. In order to do this, the data are transformed into the conservative coordinates and accumulated. Within the conservative reference frame, much of the meteorological variability is removed. Once enough data are obtained within the system, the observations can be tranformed back into physical space at any location and compared with other measurements. The method by which the trace species data are obtained makes no difference; satellite, balloon, rocket, aircraft and ground-based data all become equivalent and can be intercompared. The conservative-coordinate system not only allows for intercomparison of data, but shows how data can be taken in such a way as to maximize the physical scope of the information. In other words, the method automatically suggests when conditions might be suitable to obtain information with different environmental situations. It also allows for the forecast of constituent fields using only the meteorological forecasts and limited observational data.

Schoeberl, M. R.↗

Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission: Overview and Status

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission is an international satellite mission specifically designed to unify and advance precipitation measurements from a constellation of research and operational microwave sensors. NASA and JAXA will deploy a Core Observatory in 2014 to serve as a reference satellite to unify precipitation measurements from the constellation of sensors. The GPM Core Observatory will carry a Ku/Ka-band Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) and a conical-scanning multi-channel (10-183 GHz) GPM Microwave Radiometer (GMI). The DPR will be the first dual-frequency radar in space to provide not only measurements of 3-D precipitation structures but also quantitative information on microphysical properties of precipitating particles. The DPR and GMI measurements will together provide a database that relates vertical hydrometeor profiles to multi-frequency microwave radiances over a variety of environmental conditions across the globe. This combined database will be used as a common transfer standard for improving the accuracy and consistency of precipitation retrievals from all constellation radiometers. For global coverage, GPM relies on existing satellite programs and new mission opportunities from a consortium of partners through bilateral agreements with either NASA or JAXA. Each constellation member may have its unique scientific or operational objectives but contributes microwave observations to GPM for the generation and dissemination of unified global precipitation data products. In addition to the DPR and GMI on the Core Observatory, the baseline GPM constellation consists of the following sensors: (1) Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) instruments on the U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites, (2) the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-2 (AMSR-2) on the GCOM-W1 satellite of JAXA, (3) the Multi-Frequency Microwave Scanning Radiometer (MADRAS) and the multi-channel microwave humidity sounder (SAPHIR) on the French-Indian MeghaTropiques satellite, (4) the Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-19, (5) MHS instruments on MetOp satellites launched by the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), (6) the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) on the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Preparatory Project (NPP), and (7) ATMS instruments on the NOAA-NASA Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) satellites. Data from Chinese and Russian microwave radiometers may also become available through international collaboration under the auspices of the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) and Group on Earth Observations (GEO). The current generation of global rainfall products combines observations from a network of uncoordinated satellite missions using a variety of merging techniques. GPM will provide "next-generation" precipitation products characterized by: (1) more accurate instantaneous precipitation estimate (especially for light rain and cold-season solid precipitation), (2) intercalibrated microwave brightness temperatures from constellation radiometers within a consistent framework, and (3) unified precipitation retrievals from constellation radiometers using a common a priori hydrometeor database constrained by combined radar/radiometer measurements provided by the GPM Core Observatory. GPM is a science mission with integrated applications goals. GPM will provide a key measurement to improve understanding of global water cycle variability and freshwater availability in a changing climate. The DPR and GMI measurements will offer insights into 3-dimensional structures of hurricanes and midlatitude storms, microphysical properties of precipitating particles, and latent heat associated with precipitation processes. The GPM mission will also make data available in near realtime (within 3 hours of observations) forocietal applications ranging from position fixes of storm centers, numerical weather prediction, flood forecasting, freshwater management, landslide warning, crop prediction, to tracking of water-borne diseases. An overview of the GPM mission design, retrieval strategy, ground validation activities, and international science collaboration will be presented.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Predicting the viability of beta-lactamase: How folding and binding free energies correlate with beta-lactamase fitness

One of the long-standing holy grails of molecular evolution has been the ability to predict an organism’s fitness directly from its genotype. With such predictive abilities in hand, researchers would be able to more accurately forecast how organisms will evolve and how proteins with novel functions could be engineered, leading to revolutionary advances in medicine and biotechnology. In this work, we assemble the largest reported set of experimental TEM-1 β-lactamase folding free energies and use this data in conjunction with previously acquired fitness data and computational free energy predictions to determine how much of the fitness of β-lactamase can be directly predicted by thermodynamic folding and binding free energies. We focus upon β-lactamase because of its long history as a model enzyme and its central role in antibiotic resistance. Based upon a set of 21 β-lactamase single and double mutants expressly designed to influence protein folding, we first demonstrate that modeling software designed to compute folding free energies such as FoldX and PyRosetta can meaningfully, although not perfectly, predict the experimental folding free energies of single mutants. Interestingly, while these techniques also yield sensible double mutant free energies, we show that they do so for the wrong physical reasons. We then go on to assess how well both experimental and computational folding free energies explain single mutant fitness. We find that folding free energies account for, at most, 24% of the variance in β-lactamase fitness values according to linear models and, somewhat surprisingly, complementing folding free energies with computationally-predicted binding free energies of residues near the active site only increases the folding-only figure by a few percent. This strongly suggests that the majority of β-lactamase’s fitness is controlled by factors other than free energies. Overall, our results shed a bright light on to what extent the community is justified in using thermodynamic measures to infer protein fitness as well as how applicable modern computational techniques for predicting free energies will be to the large data sets of multiply-mutated proteins forthcoming.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Using MERRA Gridded Innovations for Quantifying Uncertainties in Analysis Fields and Diagnosing Observing System Inhomogeneities

MERRA is a NASA reanalysis for the satellite era using a major new version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5). The project focuses on historical analyses of the hydrological cycle on a broad range of weather and climate time scales and places the NASA EOS suite of observations in a climate context. The characterization of uncertainty in reanalysis fields is a commonly requested feature by users of such data. While intercomparison with reference data sets is common practice for ascertaining the realism of the datasets, such studies typically are restricted to long term climatological statistics and seldom provide state dependent measures of the uncertainties involved. In principle, variational data assimilation algorithms have the ability of producing error estimates for the analysis variables (typically surface pressure, winds, temperature, moisture and ozone) consistent with the assumed background and observation error statistics. However, these "perceived error estimates" are expensive to obtain and are limited by the somewhat simplistic errors assumed in the algorithm. The observation minus forecast residuals (innovations) by-product of any assimilation system constitutes a powerful tool for estimating the systematic and random errors in the analysis fields. Unfortunately, such data is usually not readily available with reanalysis products, often requiring the tedious decoding of large datasets and not so-user friendly file formats. With MERRA we have introduced a gridded version of the observations/innovations used in the assimilation process, using the same grid and data formats as the regular datasets. Such dataset empowers the user with the ability of conveniently performing observing system related analysis and error estimates. The scope of this dataset will be briefly described. We will present a systematic analysis of MERRA innovation time series for the conventional observing system, including maximum-likelihood estimates of background and observation errors, as well as global bias estimates. Starting with the joint PDF of innovations and analysis increments at observation locations we propose a technique for diagnosing bias among the observing systems, and document how these contextual biases have evolved during the satellite era covered by MERRA.

da Silva, Arlindo↗