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NASA NTRS2012

Observations of Herbig Ae/Be Stars with Herschel/PACS: The Atomic and Molecular Contents of Their Protoplanetary Discs

We observed a sample of 20 representative Herbig Ae/Be stars and 5 A-type debris discs with PACS onboard Herschel, as part of the GAS in Protoplanetary Systems (GASPS) project. The observations were done in spectroscopic mode, and cover the far-infrared lines of [OI], [CII], CO, CH+, H20, and OH. We have a [OI]63 micro/ detection rate of 100% for the Herbig Ae/Be and 0% for the debris discs. The [OI] 145 micron line is only detected in 25% and CO J = 18-17 in 45% (and fewer cases for higher J transitions) of the Herbig Ae/Be stars, while for [CII] 157 micron, we often find spatially variable background contamination. We show the first detection of water in a Herbig Ae disc, HD 163296, which has a settled disc. Hydroxyl is detected as well in this disc. First seen in HD 100546, CH+ emission is now detected for the second time in a Herbig Ae star, HD 97048. We report fluxes for each line and use the observations as line diagnostics of the gas properties. Furthermore, we look for correlations between the strength of the emission lines and either the stellar or disc parameters, such as stellar luminosity, ultraviolet and X-ray flux. accretion rate, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) band strength, and flaring. We find that the stellar ultraviolet flux is the dominant excitation mechanism of [OI] 63 micron, with the highest line fluxes being found in objects with a large amount of flaring and among the largest PAH strengths. Neither the amount of accretion nor the X-ray luminosity has an influence on the line strength. We find correlations between the line flux of [OI]63 micron and [OI] 145 micron, CO J = IS-17 and [OI] 6300 A, and between the continuum flux at 63 micron and at 1.3 mm, while we find weak correlations between the line flux. of [OI] 63 micron and the PAH luminosity, the line flux of CO J = 3-2, the continuum flux at 63 pm, the stellar effective temperature, and the Br-gamma luminosity. Finally, we use a combination of the [OI] 63 micron and C(12)O J = 2-1 line fluxes to obtain order of magnitude estimates of the disc gas masses, in agreement with the values that we find from detailed modelling of two Herbig Ae/Be stars, HD 163296 and HD 169142.

Meeus, G.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Three-Dimensional Expansion of the Ejecta from Tycho's Supernova Remnant

We present the first 3D measurements of the velocity of various ejecta knots in Tycho's supernova remnant, known to result from a Type Ia explosion. Chandra X-ray observations over a 12 yr baseline from 2003 to 2015 allow us to measure the proper motion of nearly 60 tufts of Si-rich ejecta, giving us the velocity in the plane of the sky. For the line-of-sight velocity, we use two different methods: a nonequilibrium ionization model fit to the strong Si and S lines in the 1.22.8 keV regime, and a fit consisting of a series of Gaussian lines. These methods give consistent results, allowing us to determine the redshift or blueshift of each of the knots. Assuming a distance of 3.5 kpc, we find total velocities that range from 2400 to 6600 km/s, with a mean of 4430 km/s. We find several regions where the ejecta knots have overtaken the forward shock. These regions have proper motions in excess of 6000 km/s. Some SN Ia explosion models predict a velocity asymmetry in the ejecta. We find no such velocity asymmetries in Tycho, and we discuss our findings in light of various explosion models, favoring those delayed-detonation models with relatively vigorous and symmetrical deflagrations. Finally, we compare measurements with models of the remnant's evolution that include both smooth and clumpy ejecta profiles, finding that both ejecta profiles can be accommodated by the observations.

ISM: individual objects (Tycho’s SNR) – ISM: s↗
NASA NTRS2018

One-Hertz Waves at Mars: MAVEN Observations

We perform a survey of 1-Hz waves at Mars utilizing Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) spacecraft observations for a Martian year. We find that the 1-Hz wave occurrence rate shows an apparent variation caused by masking of the waves by background turbulence during the times when the background turbulence levels are high. To correct for this turbulence masking, we select waves that occur in time intervals where the background turbulence levels are low. We find that the extreme ultraviolet flux does not affect the wave occurrence rate significantly, suggesting that the newly born pickup ions originating in the Mars's exosphere contribute minimally to the 1-Hz wave generation. We find that the wave occurrence rates are higher for low Mach numbers and low beta values than for high Mach numbers and high beta values. Further, we find that a high percentage of 1-Hz waves satisfy the group-standing condition, which suggests that a high percentage of the waves seen as monochromatic waves in the spacecraft frame can be broadband waves in the solar wind frame that have group velocities nearly equal and opposite to the solar wind velocity. We infer that the wave occurrence rate trends with the Mach number and proton beta are a consequence of how the Mach numbers and beta values influence the wave generation and damping or how those parameters affect the group-standing condition. Finally, we find that the 1-Hz waves are equally likely to be found in both the quasi-parallel and the quasi-perpendicular foreshock regions.

Waves↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Adaptive Stress Testing of Trajectory Predictions in Flight Management Systems

To find failure events and their likelihoods in flight-critical systems, we investigate the use of an advanced black-box stress testing approach called adaptive stress testing. We analyze a trajectory predictor from a developmental commercial flight management system which takes as input a collection of lateral waypoints and en-route environmental conditions. Our aim is to search for failure events relating to inconsistencies in the predicted lateral trajectories. The intention of this work is to find likely failures and report them back to the developers so they can address and potentially resolve shortcomings of the system before deployment. To improve search performance, this work extends the adaptive stress testing formulation to be applied more generally to sequential decision-making problems with episodic reward by collecting the state transitions during the search and evaluating at the end of the simulated rollout. We use a modified Monte Carlo tree search algorithm with progressive widening as our adversarial reinforcement learner. The performance is compared to direct Monte Carlo simulations and to the cross-entropy method as an alternative importance sampling baseline. The goal is to find potential problems otherwise not found by traditional requirements-based testing. Results indicate that our adaptive stress testing approach finds more failures and finds failures with higher likelihood relative to the baseline approaches.

adaptive stress testing↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Market Survey 2020: Commercial Clinical Decision Support Systems and Wellness Tools

For long-duration, deep space exploration missions, current methods for managing and supporting crew health and medical conditions will be unsuitable. Communication and data transmission lags will necessitate the use of a sophisticated clinical decision support system (CDSS) that will tailor diagnosis and treatment guidance that is context-sensitive for anticipated astronaut health, wellness, and medical conditions. A variety of clinical decision support (CDS) and wellness tools (WT) are currently available in the commercial market and a broad-brush survey of this market can provide an initial impression of the current state of the art which, in turn, can inform the roadmap of NASA deep space CDSS development and associated requirements. Such a survey was undertaken during the first six months of 2020 using directed convenience sampling to obtain information provided by vendors on their websites; both commercially available CDS and WT (such as those used to track and monitor nutrition, exercise, and sleep) were included. Areas assessed were item type (e.g., software/application, device); primary purpose of the item (e.g., diagnostic support, nutrition tracking); additional purposes (if any); reported features, capabilities, and functionality; setting of use (e.g., inpatient, outpatient); intended user (e.g., clinician, patient); location and sources of data/information used or produced by the item; integration with patient electronic health record (EHR); compliance with interoperability ontologies and standards (e.g., Health Level 7 [HL7], Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine – Clinical Terminology [SNOMED-CT]); and whether the item is knowledge-based (derived from research findings) or non-knowledge-based (derived through artificial intelligence, machine learning, advanced probability and statistics), among others. Ninety-seven (97) vendor websites describing 196 CDS and 73 WT (269 total) were reviewed and coded. The primary purpose of the majority of CDS reviewed is diagnosis or diagnosis/treatment/drug decision support—targeted for clinician use— and the primary purpose of the majority of WT reviewed is the monitoring of different health metrics, most often through the use of a biosensor device (e.g., blood pressure)—targeted for patient use. Very few CDS or WT appear to comply with major international interoperability standards or can be integrated with a patient’s EHR data. None consider contextual factors, such as conditions of the physical environment (e.g., CO2 levels). The majority of CDS and WT reviewed are non-knowledge, cloud- or web-based applications or software. Forty-three (43) major findings were identified and the implications those findings have for NASA will be discussed. Example major findings include: CDS-WT capabilities range from diagnosis to treatment applications, CDS-WT may be wearable or non-wearable and are technologically advanced and only a few CDS-WT tools referenced compliance to ensure interoperability, among other findings. Recommendations will also be offered that will help to address ExMC Gap, Medical-701: Enhance medical capabilities within an exploration medical system.

market survey↗
NASA NTRS2020

A Catalog of Emission-line Galaxies from the Faint Infrared Grism Survey: Studying Environmental Influence on Star Formation

We present a catalog of 208 0.3 < z < 2.1 emission-line galaxies (ELGs) selected from 1D slitless spectroscopy obtained using Hubble's WFC3 G102 grism, as part of the Faint Infrared Grism Survey. We identify ELG candidates by searching for significant peaks in all continuum-subtracted G102 spectra and, where possible, confirm candidates by identifying consistent emission lines in other available spectra or with published spectroscopic redshifts. We provide derived emission-line fluxes and errors, redshifts, and equivalent widths for Hα λ6563, [O iii] λλ4959, 5007, and [O ii] λ3727 emission lines, for ELGs down to AB(F105W) >28 and >10^(−17) erg/ sq. cms line flux. We use the resulting line catalog to investigate a possible relationship between line emission and a galaxy's environment. We use seventh-nearest-neighbor distances to investigate the typical surroundings of ELGs compared to non-ELGs, and we find that [O iii] emitters are preferentially found at intermediate galaxy densities near galaxy groups. We characterize these ELGs in terms of the galaxy specific star formation rate (SFR) versus stellar mass and find no significant influence of environment on that relation. We calculate SFRs and find no dependence of SFR on local galaxy surface density for 0.3 < z < 0.8 Hα emitters and for 0.8 < z < 1.3 [O iii] emitters. We find similar rates of close-pair interaction between ELGs and non-ELGs. For galaxy surface densities Σ ≤ 30 Mp/sq.c, we find no consistent effect of environment on star formation.

John Pharo↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Adaptive Stress Testing of Collision Avoidance Systems for Small UASs with Deep Reinforcement Learning

The next-generation Airborne Collision Avoidance System for smaller UASs (ACAS sXu) is currently being developed and tested by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to provide detect-and-avoid capability for small unmanned aircraft operating beyond line-of-sight. Due to the complexity and safety-critical nature of the system, safety validation is important not only for the certification of the final system, but also for informing changes during the iterative development process. In this paper, we analyze a prototype of ACAS sXu in simulated aircraft encounters to discover scenarios of small near mid-air collisions (sNMACs), an important safety event in which two aircraft come closer than 50 feet horizontally and 15 feet vertically. Due to the size and complexity of the system as well as rarity of sNMAC events, traditional methods such as Monte Carlo testing often require informed setup and targeting to elicit failures. However, such a dependence on domain knowledge can be incompatible with the independent verification and validation (IV&V) process, the aim of which is to discover unforeseen issues. To address these challenges, we apply an accelerated validation method called adaptive stress testing (AST) to find the most likely sNMAC scenarios without reliance on system introspection. AST uses reinforcement learning to adapt the search towards the most promising areas of the search space as it progresses. We use a state-of-the-art deep reinforcement learning algorithm, proximate policy optimization, to more efficiently search the large and continuous state space. We find that this approach significantly improves the performance of AST compared to a prior approach based on Monte Carlo tree search. We perform experiments using AST to find sNMAC events under various encounter configurations, varying parameters pertaining to dynamics and coordination. Our experiments show AST to be very effective at finding sNMAC scenarios. We summarize our findings, presenting high-level categories of discovered sNMACs and specific examples of encounters in each category.

aircraft collision avoidance↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

One-Carbon Metabolism and SANS 2022 Update

Spaceflight Associated Neuro-ocular Syndrome, or SANS, affects a subset of astronauts (1, 2), and biochemical evidence has documented differences in those astronauts (3). Specifically, they had higher circulating concentrations of metabolites of the one-carbon metabolic pathway (1C), including homocysteine, and these concentrations were higher before flight (3). After ruling out many potential confounding factors in these otherwise healthy individuals (e.g., sex, kidney function, vitamin status, coffee consumption), a study of genetics was warranted. In an initial pilot effort, we documented a genetic predisposition to develop ophthalmic changes after long-duration space flight (4). That is, from a limited study of 5 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), we found that the G allele for the MTRR A66G SNP was associated with a greater risk of choroidal folds and cotton-wool spots after flight, and the C allele for SHMT1 C1420T was protective against optic disc edema (4). These data provide a potential pathway for understanding why some individuals develop SANS, while others do not. The initial pilot study of 5 SNPs yielded striking findings, but the 1C pathway is far more complex. An effort was undertaken to examine more than 500 1C SNPs to see if a broader examination could help illuminate this association. That work is ongoing. The astronaut findings led us to advocate for the inclusion of 1C pathway genetic and biochemistry testing on other SANS-related projects, noting that genetics might help identify responders, non-responders, or outliers. The first such effort yielded evidence of an association of specific forms of the MTRR and SHMT-1 SNPs and vitamin B12 status with end-tidal CO2 after acute carbon dioxide exposure (5). The second such effort led to the identification that individuals exposed to strict head-down tilt and CO2 for 30-d who developed optic disc edema also had risk alleles for the two SNPs described above (6). Additionally, we identified a clinical population with many characteristics either attributed or purported to be involved in the ocular changes seen in affected astronauts: women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). PCOS is a condition of androgen excess and anovulatory menstrual cycles. The shared characteristics and clinical findings between SANS and PCOS generally include higher circulating homocysteine concentrations, increased retinal nerve fiber layer thickness, increased androgen concentrations (or responses), and altered carbohydrate metabolism. To our knowledge, no study has examined whether women with PCOS have asymptomatic ophthalmic anomalies observed in astronauts with SANS. While researchers have evaluated the one-carbon metabolism pathway polymorphisms of PCOS patients, and initial studies show an association with certain one-carbon polymorphisms, none have looked at the set of SNPs identified in our studies that are associated with ophthalmic changes in astronauts. Accordingly, we designed a study to evaluate the association of one-carbon pathway SNPs and ophthalmic findings in patients with PCOS and/or IIH compared to controls. Subjects provided blood samples for vitamin and one carbon biochemistry analyses, an extensive analysis of >500 SNPs associated with one carbon metabolism and had eye examinations and ocular imaging. Data analysis are underway. The data collected to date have shown associations between one carbon pathway biochemistry and genetics and incidence of SANS. The mechanisms for SANS has yet to be identified, although many hypotheses exist. Based on our data, we have developed (8, 9) and expanded (6) a multi-hit hypothesis for how these seemingly disparate findings could be linked. While intriguing, the hypothesis represents the starting point for further research. We aim to clarify the relationship between B-vitamin status and genetics with regard to the risk of SANS. Ultimately, understanding the mechanism(s) behind this will provide a means to predict, prevent, or treat these ophthalmologic pathologies in astronauts, and terrestrial populations.

S M Smith↗
NASA NTRS2021

Gravity Wave Observations by the Mars Science Laboratory REMS Pressure Sensor and Comparison with Mesoscale Atmospheric Modeling with MarsWRF

Surface pressure measurements on Mars have revealed a wide variety of atmospheric phenomena. The Mars Science Laboratory Rover Environmental Monitoring Station pressure sensor dataset is now the longest duration record of surface pressure on Mars. We use the first 2580 martian sols, nearly 4 Mars years,of measurements to identify atmospheric pressure waves with periods of tens of minutes to hours using wavelet analysis on residual pressure after the tidal harmonics are removed. We find these waves have a clear diurnal cycle with strongest activity in the early morning and late evening and a seasonal cycle with the strongest waves in the second half of the martian year (Ls= 180-360°). The strongest such waves of the entire mission occurred during the Mars Year 34 global dust storm. Comparable atmospheric waves are identified using atmospheric modeling with the MarsWRF general circulation model in a “nested” high spatial resolution mode. With the support of the modeling, we find these waves best fit the expected properties of inertia-gravity waves with horizontal wavelengths of O(100s) of km. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY Measuring air pressure from the surface of Mars has revealed a wide variety of atmospheric phenomena. The Curiosity rover's record or surface air pressure is now the longest yet made on Mars.We use the first ~8 years of Curiosity's pressure observations to look for atmospheric waves with periods of tens of minutes to hours. We find these waves have a clear pattern in their daily behavior with the strongest activity in the early morning and late evening and a seasonal cycle with the strongest waves in the second half of the martian year (Northern hemisphere fall and winter). The strongest such waves occurred in 2018 during a global dust storm. We find comparable waves in atmospheric modeling. With the support of modeling, we find these waves best fit the expected properties of buoyancy waves forced by airflow over topography with horizontal wavelengths of 100-1000 km.

Scott D Guzewich↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncovering the Size-dependent Thermal Solid Transformation of Akaganéite

Investigating the structural evolution and phase transformation of iron oxides is crucial for gaining a deeper understanding of geological changes on diverse planets and preparing oxide materials suitable for industrial applications. In this study, we employed in-situ heating techniques in conjunction with transmission electron microscopy (TEM) observations and ex-situ characterization to thoroughly analyze the thermal solid-phase transformation of akaganéite one-dimensional (1D) nanostructures with varying diameters. Our findings offer compelling evidence for a size-dependent morphology evolution in akaganéite 1D nanostructures, which can be attributed to the transformation from akaganéite to maghemite (?-Fe2O3) and subsequent crystal growth. Specifically, we observed that akaganéite nanorods with a diameter of around 50 nm transformed into hollow polycrystalline maghemite nanorods, which demonstrated remarkable stability without arresting crystal growth under continuous heating. In contrast, smaller akaganéite nanoneedles or nanowires with a diameter ranging from 20 to 8 nm displayed a propensity for forming single-crystal nanoneedles or nanowires through phase transformation and densification. By manipulating the size of the precursors, we have developed a straightforward method for the synthesis of single-crystal and polycrystalline maghemite nanowires through solid-phase transformation. These significant findings provide new insights into the size-dependent structural evolution and phase transformation of iron oxides at the nanoscale.

Wang, Xiang↗
DOE OSTI2022

An independent analysis of bias sources and variability in wind plant pre-construction energy yield estimation methods

The wind resource assessment community has long had the goal of reducing the bias between wind plant pre-construction energy yield assessment (EYA) and the observed annual energy production (AEP). This comparison is typically made between the 50% probability of exceedance (P50) value of the EYA and the long-term corrected operational AEP (hereafter OA P50), and is known as the P50 bias. The industry has critically lacked an independent analysis of bias reduction investigated across multiple consultants to identify the greatest sources of uncertainty and variance in the EYA process and the best opportunities for uncertainty reduction. The present study addresses this gap by benchmarking consultant methodologies against each other and against operational data at a scale not seen before in industry collaborations. We consider data from 10 wind plants and evaluate discrepancies between eight consultancies in the steps taken from estimates of gross to net energy. Consultants tend to overestimate the gross energy produced at the turbines and then compensate by further overestimating downstream losses, leading to a mean P50 bias near zero, still with significant variability among the individual wind plants. Within our data sample, we find that consultant estimates of all loss categories, except environmental losses, tend to reduce the project-to-project variability of the P50 bias. The disagreement between consultants, however, remains flat throughout the addition of losses. Finally, we find that differences in consultants’ estimates of project performance can lead to differences up to $10/MWh in the levelized cost of energy for a wind plant.

Todd, Austin C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Island for gravitationally prepared state and pseudo entanglement wedge

We consider spacetime initiated by a finite-sized initial boundary as a generalization of the Hartle-Hawking no-boundary state. We study entanglement entropy of matter state prepared by such spacetime. We find that the entanglement entropy for large subregion is given either by the initial state entanglement or the entanglement island, preventing the entropy to grow arbitrarily large. Consequently, the entanglement entropy is always bounded from above by the boundary area of the island, leading to an entropy bound in terms of the island. The island I is located in the analytically continued spacetime, either at the bra or the ket part of the spacetime in Schwinger-Keldysh formalism. The entanglement entropy is given by an average of complex pseudo generalized entropy for each entanglement island. We find a necessary condition of the initial state to be consistent with the strong sub-additivity, which requires that any probe degrees of freedom are thermally entangled with the rest of the system. We then find a large parameter region where the spacetime with finite-sized initial boundary, which does not have the factorization puzzle at leading order, dominates over the Hartle-Hawking no-boundary state or the bra ket wormhole. Due to the absence of a moment of time reflection symmetry, the island in our setup is a generalization of the entanglement wedge, called pseudo entanglement wedge. In pseudo entanglement wedge reconstruction, we consider reconstructing the bulk matter transition matrix on A ∪ I, from a fine-grained state on A. The bulk transition matrix is given by a thermofield double state with a projection by the initial state. We also provide an AdS/BCFT model by considering EOW branes with corners. We also find the exponential hardness of such reconstruction task using a generalization of Python’s lunch conjecture to pseudo generalized entropy.

2D gravity↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven wind turbine wake modeling via probabilistic machine learning

Wind farm design primarily depends on the variability of the wind turbine wake flows to the atmospheric wind conditions and the interaction between wakes. Physics-based models that capture the wake flow field with high-fidelity are computationally very expensive to perform layout optimization of wind farms, and, thus, data-driven reduced-order models can represent an efficient alternative for simulating wind farms. In this work, we use real-world light detection and ranging (LiDAR) measurements of wind-turbine wakes to construct predictive surrogate models using machine learning. Specifically, we first demonstrate the use of deep autoencoders to find a low-dimensional latent space that gives a computationally tractable approximation of the wake LiDAR measurements. Then, we learn the mapping between the parameter space and the (latent space) wake flow fields using a deep neural network. Additionally, we also demonstrate the use of a probabilistic machine learning technique, namely, Gaussian process modeling, to learn the parameter-space-latent-space mapping in addition to the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty in the data. Finally, to cope with training large datasets, we demonstrate the use of variational Gaussian process models that provide a tractable alternative to the conventional Gaussian process models for large datasets. Furthermore, we introduce the use of active learning to adaptively build and improve a conventional Gaussian process model predictive capability. Overall, we find that our approach provides accurate approximations of the wind-turbine wake flow field that can be queried at an orders-of-magnitude cheaper cost than those generated with high-fidelity physics-based simulations.

Deep neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bioenergy Technologies in Long-Run Climate Change Mitigation: Results from the EMF-33 Study

Bioenergy is expected to play an important role in long-run climate change mitigation strategies as highlighted by many integrated assessment model (IAM) scenarios. These scenarios, however, also show a very wide range of results, with uncertainty about bioenergy conversion technology deployment and biomass feedstock supply. To date, the underlying differences in model assumptions and parameters for the range of results have not been conveyed. Here we explore the models and results of the 33rd study of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum to elucidate and explore bioenergy technology specifications and constraints that underlie projected bioenergy outcomes. We first develop and report consistent bioenergy technology characterizations and modeling details. We evaluate the bioenergy technology specifications through a series of analyses—comparison with the literature, model intercomparison, and an assessment of bioenergy technology projected deployments. We find that bioenergy technology coverage and characterization varies substantially across models, spanning different conversion routes, carbon capture and storage opportunities, and technology deployment constraints. Still, the range of technology specification assumptions is largely in line with bottom-up engineering estimates. We then find that variation in bioenergy deployment across models cannot be understood from technology costs alone. Important additional determinants include biomass feedstock costs, the availability and costs of alternative mitigation options in and across end-uses, the availability of carbon dioxide removal possibilities, the speed with which large scale changes in the makeup of energy conversion facilities and integration can take place, and the relative demand for different energy services.

bioenergy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Chapter 4 - Recent Advances in Identification of Differential Equations from Noisy Data: IDENT Review

Differential equations and numerical methods are extensively used to model various real-world phenomena in science and engineering. With modern developments, we aim to find the underlying differential equation from a single observation of time-dependent data. If we assume that the differential equation is a linear combination of various linear and nonlinear differential terms, then the identification problem can be formulated as solving a linear system. The goal then reduces to finding the optimal coefficient vector that best represents the time derivative of the given data. We review some recent works on the identification of differential equations. We find some common themes for the improved accuracy: (i) The formulation of linear system with proper denoising is important, (ii) how to utilize sparsity and model selection to find the correct coefficient support needs careful attention, and (iii) there are ways to improve the coefficient recovery. We present an overview and analysis of recent developments on the topic.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Non-local corrections to the typical medium theory of Anderson localization

We use the recently developed finite cluster typical medium approach to study the Anderson localization transition in three dimensions. Applying our method to the box and binary alloy disorder distributions, we find a fast convergence with the cluster size. We demonstrate the importance of the typical medium environment and the non-local spatial correlations for the proper characterization of the localization transition. As the cluster size increases, our typical medium cluster method recovers the correct critical disorder strength for the transition. Our findings highlight the importance of the non-local cluster corrections for capturing the localization behavior of the mobility edge trajectories. Our results demonstrate that the typical medium cluster approach developed here provides a consistent and systematic description of the Anderson localization transition in the framework of the effective medium embedding schemes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Solar Influencer Next Door: Predicting Low-Income Solar Referrals and Leads

Increasing the adoption of solar among low-to-moderate income (LMI) households remains an important policy goal because of its promise to simultaneously reduce energy burden and support the just distribution of benefits of renewable energy. However, scaling LMI solar remains challenging due to affordability and access issues. Most existing LMI adoption has occurred under public-funded programs, highlighting the importance of increasing the cost-effectiveness of these programs at scale. We develop a new household-level data set on LMI solar lead acquisition, referrals, and adoption to understand the processes through which LMI solar uptake has occurred in California. Then, we develop models to predict two sub-mechanisms in the solar adoption process: whether an otherwise qualified lead becomes "lost" i.e. non-responsive to outreach and, for existing clients, whether they refer solar to others. For the program analyzed, participants received their solar system at no cost, which deemphasizes economic drivers of solar adoption and could differ from other program experiences. Both models substantially improved the accuracy of prediction relative to a baseline. Overall, we find that peer effects and solar economics are important to predicting referrals, and household demographic factors in lead loss prediction. Finally, we find that referrals are both the highest quality and largest source of LMI solar leads, providing a promising mechanism to expand LMI programs further.

customer acquisition costs↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying structural errors in cloud condensation nuclei activity from reduced representation of aerosol size distributions

Aerosol effects on clouds and radiation are the dominant contribution to uncertainty in radiative forcing relative to the pre-industrial atmosphere. While previous studies have assessed the impact of parametric uncertainty on modeled forcing, structural errors from the numerical representation of particle distributions have not been well quantified. Here we present a framework for quantifying error in aerosol size distributions and cloud condensation nuclei activity, which we apply to the widely used 4-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4). Box model predictions from the MAM4 are evaluated against the Particle Monte Carlo Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (PartMC-MOSAIC), a benchmark model that tracks the evolution of individual particles. We show that size distributions simulated by MAM4 diverge from those simulated by PartMC-MOSAIC after only a few hours of aging by condensation and coagulation in polluted conditions, which leads to large errors in modeled cloud condensation nuclei concentrations. We find that differences between MAM4 and PartMC-MOSAIC are largest under polluted conditions, where the size distribution evolves rapidly though aging by condensation of semi-volatile substances and coagulation among particles. These findings suggest that structural error in modeled aerosol properties contributes to the large inter-model variability in aerosol radiative forcing.

Fierce, Laura M.↗