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DOE OSTI2021

An Energy Service Interface for Distributed Energy Resources

Renewable energy resources, particularly wind and solar photovoltaic, are becoming significant contributors to electric power generation. These re-sources will contribute towards achieving sustainable electric power systems. However, renewable resources will dramatically increase the demand for flexible power system operations. This paper proposes an energy service interface that will allow aggregated distributed energy resources, such as residential loads and inverter-based systems, to participate in NERC-defined smart energy reliability services. Such cyber-physical systems will increase system flexibility by ensuring match between energy supply and energy demand.Aggregation and coordinated dispatch of millions of distributed energy resources will require development of large-scale computing networks. Several smart grid interface-enabling technologies, including IEEE 2030.5, Common Smart Inverter Profile, SunSpec Modbus, and CTA 2045, are discussed. Residential loads are categorized by their static and dynamic energy characteristics to identify services in which they can participate. The business model for the energy services interface as well as probabilistic modeling for resource estimation are highlighted as future considerations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Implementation of Johnson Noise Thermometry into Radiation Hardened Electronics

The random motion of charge carriers in an electrical conductor is a function of its temperature. This phenomenon generates an electrical signal, referred to as Johnson noise, that is present in all analog signals. Conversely, the temperature dependence of the Johnson noise spectrum also enables a direct measurement of absolute temperature, which can provide a secondary measurement of temperature when quantified using sensors such as resistive temperature devices (RTDs) in a process called Johnson noise thermometry (JNT). For nuclear environments, this is of particular interest in correcting for RTDs signal drift caused by accumulation, transmutation, and displacement damage caused by neutron and gamma irradiation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Load following power generation and power storage using REP and PEM technology

A hydrogen generation system for generating hydrogen and electrical power includes a power supply, a reformer-electrolyzer-purifier (REP) assembly including at least one fuel cell including an anode and a cathode separated by an electrolyte matrix, at least one low temperature fuel cell, and a hydrogen storage. The at least one fuel cell is configured to receive a reverse voltage supplied by the power supply and generate hydrogen-containing gas in the anode of the at least one fuel cell. The at least one low temperature fuel cell is configured to receive the hydrogen-containing gas output from the REP assembly. The at least one low temperature fuel cell is configured to selectably operate in a power generation mode in which the hydrogen-containing gas is used to generate electrical power and a power storage mode in which the hydrogen-containing gas is pressurized and stored in the hydrogen storage.

Jahnke, Fred C.↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Distribution of U.S. Electric Utility Revenue Decoupling Rate Impacts from 2005 to 2017

Investments in energy efficiency and distributed generation reduce electric utility retail sales. Since electric utilities have historically collected a large portion of revenues from volumetric energy rates (¢/kWh), such reductions in sales can impact the utility’s ability to sufficiently recover non-production costs. Regulatory mechanisms that “decouple” utility revenues from sales were implemented to help make the utility indifferent to energy efficiency and distributed generation by ensuring the utility is able to collect an allowed level of revenue each year regardless of its sales. However, noticeable and consistent surcharges over time may create the perception of an incorrectly designed or implemented decoupling mechanism. To date, there are limited quantitative analyses of the rate adjustments due to decoupling mechanisms implemented among U.S. electric utilities (see Morgan, 2013). Given the recent rapid increase in distributed energy resource (DER) adoption in some states and utility service territories, consumers may be facing more prevalent and ongoing decoupling surcharges. This, in turn, may undermine stakeholder support for implementation of decoupling mechanisms and the associated utility support for energy efficiency and DERs. To determine the size of retail rate adjustments associated with decoupling mechanisms and whether they have a tendency towards bill surcharges or credits, we analyzed a large dataset of historical annual decoupling rate adjustments for 21 electric utilities in 11 states between 2005 and 2017. We found that decoupling mechanisms adjusted rates, both up and down, between rate cases, and the majority of those adjustments (54 percent) are small (within a range of -1 to 1 percent). However, we also found that 64 percent of the rate adjustment observations in our sample showed a positive rate adjustment. Importantly, once a surcharge is applied there is an 86 percent chance that there will be a surcharge in the next year as well. While our analysis did not seek to understand the root causes for such results, some possible factors include the accuracy of revenue requirement forecasts, emerging structural changes in customer use and production of energy, misaligned financial motivation, and other factors that influence sales (e.g., economic recession).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-Torque Heavy-Rare-Earth-Free Electric Motor Thermal Management

This project is part of a multi-lab Next-Generation Reliable Electric Drive Systems for Medium and Heavy-Duty Vehicles (NEXT-DRIVE) project led by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and including NREL, Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), and Ames Laboratory that leverages research expertise and facilities of these national labs to develop tools and approaches for reducing the design and development time of new electric drive technologies for medium and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) and their associated costs while increasing reliability and asset utilization. The Next-Drive project aligns with the DOE's goals by introducing high-fidelity multi-physics and AI/ML-based modeling to design low-cost, highly reliable, and longer-lifetime drivetrains, aiming to achieve 25 years of progress in 5 years. The efforts of this project will focus on NEXT-DRIVE Task 4 (led by ORNL, NREL, and AMES) - developing high-fidelity modeling framework and identifying technologies enabling heavy-rare-earth-free electric motors for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles to achieve 1 million miles of operation. Contrary to conventional approaches that optimize the motor for power density, the focus will be to identify motor designs that achieve the best trade-off between motor power density and durable operation. NREL tasks include development of high-fidelity motor thermal models incorporating rotor windage losses and identification, evaluation and measurement of motor interface materials in key thermal pathways. The poster summarizes NREL's accomplishments for the first half of FY 2025 and outlines future plans.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evolving Electricity Supply and Demand to Achieve Net-Zero Emissions: Insights from the EMF-37 Study

This paper explores the role of electricity in achieving economy-wide net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 in the United States based on results from 17 models as part of the 37th Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-37). In the study's Net-Zero scenario, the models use diverse pathways to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, with gross energy-related residual emissions ranging from 17.2 to 66.6 % of 2020 levels. Electricity consistently emerges as central to achieving net-zero, with models projecting rapid electrification of end-uses and rapidly declining CO2 intensity of electricity. However, the extent of electrification and the technology mix to decarbonize the power sector vary considerably across models. In the Net-Zero scenario, electricity is projected to evolve from ~20 % of final energy in 2020 to 17-63 % in 2050 across the models driven by electrification in all sectors-buildings, industry, and transportation-and, to a lesser extent by direct air capture. By 2050, total electricity consumption increases by 24-176 % (relative to 2020), accompanied by significant expansion in renewable electricity production. Together, solar and wind generation grows by 175-834 %, supplying 45-90 % of total electricity in 2050, with wind achieving slightly higher shares than solar. Electricity storage technologies are deployed at scale to support wind and solar generation. The electricity generation mix varies across models: some project almost complete reliance on renewables, while others see a substantial role for natural gas, often with carbon capture and storage. This paper synthesizes the rich diversity of modeling approaches and results, highlighting differing views on how key drivers of electricity demand and supply might evolve.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Climate-Water Impacts on Interconnection-Scale Electricity System Planning

A growing literature emphasizes the importance of integrating climate change impacts into electricity system planning. Rising average temperatures can increase and shift electricity demand while reducing generator and transmission efficiency. Changes to water availability and quality can reduce the output of thermally cooled generators and hydropower. Electric power grids across the US and globally are undergoing transformational changes that present new opportunities and challenges to reliability assurance. However, electric utilities and system operators have limited internal capabilities to incorporate these effects into planning practices. This work addresses gaps in utility and system planner practices by integrating climate-water-electricity expertise from universities and U.S. Department of Energy National Laboratories with electricity system planners and stakeholders in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC). Using a highly collaborative approach, global climate model data, high-resolution hydrology models, and long-term electric sector capacity expansion tools are employed to analyze a range of climate outcomes for future electricity scenarios aligned with recent WECC planning studies. Doing so allows WECC to expand its climate-agnostic planning assessments to consider how future temperature and precipitation patterns could influence generation and transmission planning. We explore how changes to climate-water conditions can affect power plant investment and operation, system economics, and environmental impacts, providing an expanded perspective on interconnection-wide decision making under climate uncertainty.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

System and method for sub-wavelength detection for jetting-based additive manufacturing using a split ring resonator probe

The present disclosure relates to a system for detecting and analyzing droplets of feedstock material being ejected from an additive manufacturing device. The system makes use of a split ring resonator (SRR) probe including a ring element having a gap, with the gap being positioned adjacent a path of travel of the droplets of feedstock material. An excitation signal source is used for supplying an excitation signal to the SRR probe. An analyzer analyzes signals generated by the SRR probe in response to perturbations in an electric field generated by the SRR probe as the droplets of feedstock material pass the ring element. The signals are indicative of dimensions of the droplets of feedstock material.

Mukherjee, Saptarshi↗

DOE OSTI2024

Non-Electricity Based Renewable Fuels: Theory and Computation for Solar Thermochemical Hydrogen

Dominated by photovoltaics and wind, current renewable energy sources generate mostly electricity, but 80% of the global final energy consumption occurs in form of fuels. Therefore, direct solar fuel generation would be a major breakthrough for the energy transition. Solar thermochemical hydrogen (STCH) is one of the very few potential routes towards scalable renewable fuels, but currently suffers from lack of an oxide working material that could optimally perform energy conversion within the thermodynamic boundary conditions. Theory and computation can contribute in two distinct ways, through materials search and discovery, but also by providing detailed mechanistic models for specific systems so to advance our understanding of possible design strategies. To enable high-throughput materials screening, we developed a defect graph neural network (dGNN) machine learning approach,[1] which accelerates the prediction of defect formation energies by replacing the tedious density functional theory (DFT) supercell calculations for all possible defect sites. This approach enables high-throughput database screening of oxides, which was integrated with thermodynamic modeling to extract the reduction entropies as additional selection criterion for STCH. Once potential candidate materials are identified, detailed models can guide materials design by predicting performance characteristics. One challenge is to quantitatively predict thermochemical equilibria at high concentrations when the redox active defects start to interact with each other, thereby impeding the formation of additional defects. Introducing a model for the free energy of defect interaction, parametrized on the basis of DFT data, we simulated the complete STCH redox cycle for (Sr,Ce)MnO3 alloys, achieving near-quantitative agreement with experimental data.[2] The analysis of these simulations reveals how defect interactions diminish the reduction entropy and H2 yield, suggesting to include these interactions in design considerations. Finally, we revisit the popular van't Hoff method for analyzing reduction enthalpies and entropies. This method is not ideal, as it involves a temperature-dependent convolution of gas-phase and solid-state entropies, causing uncertainties in the same order of magnitude as the physical quantities of interest. To avoid this problem, we suggest a simple alternative approach which can be applied to experimental and simulated data alike.

first-principles calculations↗

DOE OSTI2021

Carbon‐Neutral Pathways for the United States

Abstract The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C points to the need for carbon neutrality by mid‐century. Achieving this in the United States in only 30 years will be challenging, and practical pathways detailing the technologies, infrastructure, costs, and tradeoffs involved are needed. Modeling the entire U.S. energy and industrial system with new analysis tools that capture synergies not represented in sector‐specific or integrated assessment models, we created multiple pathways to net zero and net negative CO 2 emissions by 2050. They met all forecast U.S. energy needs at a net cost of 0.2–1.2% of GDP in 2050, using only commercial or near‐commercial technologies, and requiring no early retirement of existing infrastructure. Pathways with constraints on consumer behavior, land use, biomass use, and technology choices (e.g., no nuclear) met the target but at higher cost. All pathways employed four basic strategies: energy efficiency, decarbonized electricity, electrification, and carbon capture. Least‐cost pathways were based on >80% wind and solar electricity plus thermal generation for reliability. A 100% renewable primary energy system was feasible but had higher cost and land use. We found multiple feasible options for supplying low‐carbon fuels for non‐electrifiable end uses in industry, freight, and aviation, which were not required in bulk until after 2035. In the next decade, the actions required in all pathways were similar: expand renewable capacity 3.5 fold, retire coal, maintain existing gas generating capacity, and increase electric vehicle and heat pump sales to >50% of market share. This study provides a playbook for carbon neutrality policy with concrete near‐term priorities.

Williams, James H.↗

DOE OSTI2021

There's No Place Like Home: Residential Parking, Electrical Access, and Implications for the Future of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure

In March 2021, the cumulative sale of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), including plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) and battery electric vehicles (BEV), reached 1.8 million in the United States (Argonne National Laboratory 2021). However, PEV adoption is still in its infancy; its market share has just reached around 3% of new light-duty vehicle (LDV) sales by the end of 2020 (Alliance for Automotive Innovation 2021). Current trends suggest that PEV market share in the United States is increasing. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) 2020 Annual Energy Outlook forecasts PEV registrations to exceed 8 million vehicles by 2030 (AEO 2020). PEV adoption is expected to be led by states that are regulating the sale of zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) (California Air Resources Board). California continues to push for more aggressive ZEV regulations; the state recently issued an executive order aimed at 100% of LDV sales being ZEVs by 2035 (Office of Governor Newsom). At the federal level, the Biden administration has shown great ambition in encouraging broader electric vehicle (EV) adoption, including setting the goal of installing 500,000 new chargers nationwide (The White House 2021). Access to charging infrastructure is consistently cited as one of the primary barriers to the increased sale of PHEVs and BEVs (Carley et al. 2019). In the United States, PEV charging options are often described using a pyramid structure, with residential charging as the foundation, workplace charging in the middle, and public charging on top (Figure 1). The existing electricity system, which generates, transmits, and distributes electric fuel to residential households, has helped PEVs partially overcome the "chicken and egg" conundrum that has haunted other alternative fuels. Viable home access to electric charging is also an important equity issue, because non-residential PEV charging options (e.g., workplace or public charging stations) are generally more expensive. Households without residential charging access may experience higher total cost of PEV ownership if non-residential charging options are more costly.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Induced Markov chain for wind farm generation forecasting

Systems and methods for forecasting power generation in a wind farm are disclosed. The systems and methods utilize an induced Markov chain model to generate a forecast of power generation of the wind farm. The forecast is at least one of a point forecast or a distributional forecast. Additionally, the systems and methods modify at least one of: (i) a generation of electricity at a power plant coupled to a common power grid as the wind farm; or (ii) a distribution of electricity in the common power grid based on the forecast of power generation of the wind farm. In an exemplary approach, utilizing the induced Markov chain model to generate the forecast may include determining a series of time adjacent power output measurements based on historical wind power measurements and calculating a time series of difference values based on the series of time adjacent power output measurements.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Redox active polymer devices and methods of using and manufacturing the same

The disclosed technology relates generally to apparatus comprising conductive polymers and more particularly to tag and tag devices comprising a redox-active polymer film, and method of using and manufacturing the same. In one aspect, an apparatus includes a substrate and a conductive structure formed on the substrate which includes a layer of redox-active polymer film having mobile ions and electrons. The conductive structure further includes a first terminal and a second terminal configured to receive an electrical signal therebetween, where the layer of redox-active polymer is configured to conduct an electrical current generated by the mobile ions and the electrons in response to the electrical signal. The apparatus additionally includes a detection circuit operatively coupled to the conductive structure and configured to detect the electrical current flowing through the conductive structure.

Johnson, Paul B.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Redox active polymer devices and methods of using and manufacturing the same

The disclosed technology relates generally to apparatuses comprising conductive polymers and more particularly to tags and tag devices comprising a redox-active polymer film, and methods of using and manufacturing the same. In one aspect, an apparatus includes a substrate and a conductive structure formed on the substrate which includes a layer of redox-active polymer film having mobile ions and electrons. The conductive structure further includes a first terminal and a second terminal configured to receive an electrical signal therebetween, where the layer of redox-active polymer is configured to conduct an electrical current generated by the mobile ions and the electrons in response to the electrical signal. The apparatus additionally includes a detection circuit operatively coupled to the conductive structure and configured to detect the electrical current flowing through the conductive structure.

Friesen, Cody A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Redox active polymer devices and methods of using and manufacturing the same

Johnson, Paul B.↗

DOE OSTI2023

U.S. State Renewables Portfolio & Clean Electricity Standards: 2023 Status Update [Slides]

This report provides an overview and status update on U.S. state renewables portfolio standards (RPS) and has been expanded from previous editions to also cover 100% clean electricity standards (CES) adopted by a growing number of states. The report, published in slide-deck form along with accompanying data files, describes recent legislative revisions, key policy design features, compliance with interim targets, past and projected impacts on clean electricity development, and compliance costs. The 2023 edition presents historical data through year-end 2022 and projections out to 2050. Key trends from this edition of the report include the following: -Evolution of state RPS and CES programs: States continue to refine and revise their RPS policies, often by adopting higher targets and/or broader CES policies. Among the 29 states plus DC with an RPS, 16 states have RPS targets of at least 50% of retail sales, and 17 states have a 100% CES or RPS target. -Historical impacts on renewables development: Roughly half of all growth in U.S. renewable electricity (RE) generation and capacity since 2000 is associated with state RPS requirements, though that percentage has declined in recent years, representing 30% of all U.S. RE capacity additions in 2022. Within some regions, particularly the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, RPS policies play a more central role in motivating RE growth. -Future RPS and CES demand and incremental needs: RPS and CES policies will require roughly 300 terawatt-hours (TWh) of additional clean electricity supply by 2030 and 800 TWh by 2050, requiring total U.S. non-hydro RE generation to reach 28% of electricity sales by 2050 (compared to 17% today). This amounts to roughly one-quarter of EIA’s projected RE growth through 2050. -RPS target achievement to-date: States have generally met their interim RPS targets in recent years, with only a few exceptions reflecting unique, state-specific issues. Most CES targets are not yet in force. -Renewable energy certificate (REC) pricing trends: Prices for NEPOOL Class I RECs remained at roughly $\$40$ /MWh over the past year, just below alternative compliance payment (ACP) rates in the larger state markets, while PJM Tier I REC prices continued to rise, reaching $\$30$ /MWh by year-end. Prices for solar RECs (or SRECs) remained relatively stable, and continue to exhibit wide variation across states, with the highest prices ($\$200-450$ /MWh) in NJ, MA, and DC. -RPS compliance costs: RPS compliance costs average roughly 3.5% of retail electricity bills across RPS states, though vary widely from state to state, with the highest costs (8-12% of retail bills) in states with solar carve-outs and high SREC prices.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Direct Visualization of Charge Migration in Bilayer Tantalum Oxide Films by Multimodal Imaging

Inspired by biological neuromorphic computing, artificial neural networks based on crossbar arrays of bilayer tantalum oxide memristors have shown to be promising alternatives to conventional complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) architectures. In order to understand the driving mechanism in these oxide systems, tantalum oxide films are resistively switched by conductive atomic force microscopy (C-AFM), and subsequently imaged by kelvin probe force microscopy (KPFM) and spatially resolved time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS). These workflows enable induction and analysis of the resistive switching mechanism as well as control over the resistively switched region of the film. In this work it is shown that the resistive switching mechanism is driven by both current and electric field effects. Reversible oxygen motion is enabled by applying low (<1 V) electric fields, while high electric fields generate irreversible breakdown of the material (>1 V). Fully understanding oxygen motion and electrical effects in bilayer oxide memristor systems is a fundamental step toward the adoption of memristors as a neuromorphic computing technology.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

System and method thermopile energy harvesting for subsurface well bore sensors

A system and method for powering a borehole sensor with thermal energy is disclosed. The system includes a tubular pipe inserted into a subsurface borehole. A borehole casing is coaxially disposed with the tubular pipe. An annular space between the casing and the tubular pipe has a power source placed in the borehole to power a sensor in response to a temperature gradient between a surface of the casing and a surface of the tubular pipe. The method includes attaching thermopiles on the borehole casing or tubing; placing the thermopile in the annulus between the casing and the tubing; inducing a thermal gradient across the thermopile; generating an electrical energy in response to the temperature gradient; powering the sensor from the generated energy; and monitoring vertical expansion of a CO2 plume.

Bryan, Charles R.↗