Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Economic”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 883 records · Page 49
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Scale up, Field Testing, and Optimization of Nontoxic, Durable, Economical Coatings for Control of Invasive mussels at Hydropower Facilities (Final Report for CRADA 527)

In this effort, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) demonstrated the technical maturation of a durable, economical, and nontoxic coating (Superhydrophobic Lubricant Infused Composite, SLIC) that prevents invasive mussels and other unwanted organisms from growing on hydropower and marine structures. The physical characteristics of SLIC were measured using a variety of industry standard methods, just as a commercially available paint would, to show that it can rival other antifouling paints on the market not just in antifouling efficacy, but in structural integrity. SLIC also underwent extensive field testing in diverse field sites across the US to demonstrate that it is effective in varying environments. Engagement with industrial partners showed there is continued interest and need for a cost-effective, durable antifouling coating such as SLIC.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Luminescent Materials for the Detection of Economically Critical Metals in Harsh Environments

Renewable energy technologies used for electric vehicles and wind turbines are heavily reliant upon metals, such as rare earth elements, cobalt, lithium, and nickel. Indeed, there are 50 minerals that are currently considered “economically critical” by the 2022 United States Geological Survey. With anticipated global adoption of renewable energy technologies, producing sufficient metals to meet this demand presents a significant challenge, particularly due to the current monopolistic market for many of these metals. The production of metals from unconventional sources, such as coal utilization byproducts, is one of many promising strategies to boost domestic supply. However, sensitive, rapid, and inexpensive characterization technologies are needed to minimize production costs associated with metals prospecting and processing. Photoluminescence-based sensing techniques are particularly intriguing due to their potential for low cost and portability, coupled with high sensitivity and selectivity. This presentation focuses on the development of high-performance sensing materials for a range of critical metals, including metal-organic frameworks capable of sensitizing detection of parts-per-billion concentrations of six different rare earth elements, nanoparticles that can detect down to 600 parts-per-billion levels of cobalt, and thin films that sense aluminum down to 120 parts-per-billion. These materials are highly selective, capable of withstanding low pH conditions, and provide a response within minutes. Importantly, each sensing material is integrated with a custom-built, fully portable fiber-optic spectrometer for potential field deployment, providing significant cost savings over commercial instruments, along with potential advantages such as material regeneration for use across multiple sensing cycles and solvent removal for enhanced emission signal. These results highlight the exciting potential of luminescence platforms as cost-effective alternatives for metals characterization.

Crawford, Scott↗
DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary Screening Techno-Economic Analysis of Industrial SOFC/SOEC and Reversible SOC Integration

National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) provides system-level process, cost, and market analyses on solid oxide cell (SOC) based technologies. Specifically, techno-economic analyses (TEA), market assessments, and other technology evaluations serve to guide the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM) Reversible Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (R-SOFC) Program technology goals and objectives. These studies are key to describing how the technologies contribute to improving domestic energy infrastructure in a clean, efficient manner. This effort seeks to elucidate the potential integration opportunities between reversible SOCs and industrial systems which would aid in SOC commercialization and deployment. These preliminary screening-level results show what opportunities exist for power generating SOFCs, hydrogen producing SOECs, and point-source carbon capture. Improvements can be seen through changes in cost of electricity, cost of hydrogen, and cost of carbon capture.

reversible SOC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Overview of the Geoanalytical Economic Evaluation of Saline Storage (GEESS) System

This report provides an overview on the Geoanalytical Economic Evaluation of Saline Storage (GEESS) system which characterized 57 geologic saline formations targeted for geologic carbon storage across the lower-48 U.S. states using publicly available resources. The GEESS system consists of high spatial resolution datasets (up to 5 km grid spacing) that provide key geologic parameters (e.g., depth, thickness, permeability), and estimates of CO 2 plume size and CO 2 first-year break-even price that were determined by exercising GEESS data through the FECM/NETL CO 2 Saline Storage Cost Model (CO2_S_COM). The GEESS geodatabase is available on NETL’s EDX at GEESS Geodatabase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Techno-Economic Analysis of Compressed Air Energy Storage and Hydrogen Production from Variable Renewable Energy

This study presents the techno-economic analysis (TEA) results of integrating electrolysis hydrogen (H 2 ) production, compressed air energy storage (CAES), and H 2 -fired combustion turbines in a high variable renewable energy (VRE) market environment. The inconsistent nature of VRE creates challenges for power producers in maintaining a stable electrical grid as it is increasingly utilized. The mission of the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) is driving innovation and delivering energy solutions, and a multiangle approach involving H 2 production, energy storage, and next-level H 2 -fired combustion turbine generator (CTG) technologies could provide one solution for the nation’s growing electrical grid issues with increasing VRE sources. The H 2 production and CAES concept were investigated due to its ability to provide utility-scale H 2 -fueled power generation with large-scale energy storage capabilities. Two facilities with CAES and natural gas-fired CTGs (in McIntosh, Alabama, and Huntorf, Germany) have been operating for decades. In contrast, this study investigates the potential to replace the natural gas fuel with H 2 fuel. This concept has been publicly presented by both Siemens Energy and Bechtel Global Engineering, Construction & Project Management (Bechtel) at two different power generating levels. The CAES and air expansion/combustion turbine power generation in this study are primarily based on the Siemens Energy system (Bailie, Aug. 10-11, 2021) (Scheller, Feb. 21, 2023). The inclusion of a H 2 turboexpander generator is from Bechtel (Gülen, Sep. 6, 2022). A block flow diagram of the proposed process is illustrated in Exhibit ES-1.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

NewLife Nuclear - An Environmentally and Economically Minded Solution for Fusion Energy Waste Handling

Energy demand is rising as a result of innovative and increasingly more energy intensive processes coming to fruition, particularly through the recent interest in the development of AI data centers as well as manufacturing with the push towards increasing domestic manufacturing interest. Fusion energy can provide virtually limitless energy to support this increase in energy demand. Fusion energy concepts, largely classified as magnetic fusion energy (MFE) and inertial fusion energy (IFE) are being pursued, each having unique challenges to overcome before the successful deployment of electricity to the grid. Achieving fusion ignition on the National Ignition Facility, first in December 2022, and eight times since, has demonstrated the scientific viability of the IFE approach. Meanwhile, MFE test stands continue to improve confinement times, making meaningful strides in progressing towards experimental scientific viability. In each of these approaches, an emphasis is placed on generating more power out of the system than what is required to power the system. An under-researched area applicable to both IFE and MFE is handling activated waste coming out of fusion energy systems, both in the course of normal daily operations, as well as in intermittent periods as structural materials may need to be replaced. In the context of an IFE plant system, commonly discussed plant designs suggest targets are ignited within a chamber at a rate of up to one million targets per day. Between each shot, the chamber housing the ignition event will clear a portion of the chamber – resulting in a mixture of vaporized target gas, target debris, and other materials being expelled from the chamber [source]. Additionally, IFE system concepts typically discuss the modularization of plant designs, which are expected to be replaced periodically as the components degrade over time. This would result in the irradiated chamber structure materials, likely metals and alloys, needing to be removed and safely stored. In MFE plant systems, while targets are not ignited at a repetition rate with the frequent chamber clearing as is expected in IFE plant systems, it is anticipated that portions of the confinement area interfacing with the hot plasma will need to be replaced periodically. In each system, without additional investment and research into alternative processing and recycling methods, the result is storing irradiated materials, and other elements in a safe containment area until they are no longer activated. – resulting in significant waste both economic and environmental.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Economic, Environmental, and Performance Impacts of Co-locating Pollinator Habitat at Large Scale Solar Facilities (Final Technical Report)

The Pollinator Habitat Aligned with Solar Energy (PHASE) project studied the impacts of co-location of pollinator plantings at large-scale solar facilities (10 MW or larger). The project focused on the ecological benefits, economic considerations, and PV performance impacts of co-located pollinator vegetation through field research at seven operating solar sites.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Process Design and Techno-Economic Analysis of the Modular Staged Pressurized Oxy-Combustion (SPOC) Power Plant for Biomass

This work describes the process design and techno-economic analysis (TEA) of the modular stage pressurized oxy-combustion (SPOC) power plant for biomass firing and coal-biomass co-firing. The SPOC process was modelled using Aspen Plus®, and largely based on a previous model designed by this group for SPOC coal firing. To enable comparison with current National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) Bio-Energy Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) studies, a 550 MWe SPOC power plant with a supercritical Rankine cycle (241 bar, 593°C, and 593°C), and 90% carbon capture was modeled, and hybrid poplar biomass was chosen. Two cases were evaluated, namely 100% biomass (carbon negative) and 25% biomass co-firing (carbon neutral), and the 100% Powder River Basin coal firing case was chosen for comparison purposes. In the SPOC process, oxygen is produced via a cryogenic air separation unit (ASU) and the heat generated from the compression of air is integrated into the steam cycle and utilized for boiler feed water regeneration. Unique to the SPOC process, the boilers are arranged in a series-parallel configuration, with minimized flue gas recirculation. The flue gas is cooled and scrubbed in the direct-contact cooler (DCC) column, and the water leaving the bottom of the DCC is at a sufficiently high temperature that it can be used for boiler feed water heating, improving plant thermal efficiency. The SPOC efficiencies were above the BECCS cases with capture, and no efficiency penalty on the SPOC plant was observed with an increase of biomass in the mix mostly due to the higher oxygen content in biomass that resulted in lower oxygen requirement from the ASU, and the higher moisture in biomass that due to the key benefit of the SPOC process can be partially recovered as latent heat.

Magalhaes, Duarte↗
DOE OSTI2024

Process Design and Techno-Economic Analysis of the Modular Staged Pressurized Oxy-Combustion (SPOC) Power Plant for Biomass

This work describes the process design and techno-economic analysis (TEA) of the modular SPOC power plant for biomass firing and coal-biomass co-firing. Two Rankine cycles were considered: a supercritical steam cycle (242 bar, 593°C, 593°C) with 550 MWe net output and a subcritical cycle (166 bar, 566°C, 566°C) with 200 MWe net output. For both cases, 95% carbon capture was modeled, and hybrid poplar biomass was chosen to generate carbon-negative power. In addition, the supercritical 500 MWe case included a 25% biomass co-firing (carbon neutral) case. For both cycles, a 100% Powder River Basin coal firing case was used for comparison purposes. In the SPOC process, oxygen is produced via a cryogenic air separation unit (ASU) and the heat generated from the compression of air is integrated into the steam cycle and utilized for boiler feed water pre-heating. Unique to the SPOC process, the boilers are pressurized and arranged in a series-parallel configuration, with minimized flue gas recirculation. The flue gas is cooled and scrubbed in the direct-contact cooler (DCC) column, and the moisture in the flue gas is condensed, leaving the bottom of the DCC at a sufficiently high temperature such that it can be used for boiler feed water pre-heating, improving plant thermal efficiency. Following drying and purification, CO2 in the flue gas is at the purity required for storage or utilization. The performance data were obtained from process modelling via Aspen Plus®. The stream data from Aspen Plus® were used as an input for the AACE Class 5 cost study. Ultimately, the capital costs, Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE), and cost of CO2 captured and avoided were obtained. The HHV efficiency of the carbon negative 550 MWe supercritical SPOC case (34.8%) was clearly above those reported by NETL for the BECCS baseline cases of supercritical pulverized coal with capture (B12B, 31.5%) and the 49% biomass co-firing case with capture (PA3, 29.2%). The HHV efficiency of the carbon-negative subcritical plant is also higher than the subcritical baseline PC plant with capture (case B11B.95) presented by NETL (32% vs 29.7%). The LCOE for the SPOC 100% biomass case was similar to the LCOE for the BECCS 49% biomass with carbon capture case ($147/MWh), and the SPOC carbon neutral case LCOE was lower ($110/MWh) than the cost for the NETL baseline SC coal firing case with 90% carbon capture ($114/MWh).

Magalhaes, Duarte↗
DOE OSTI2025

Co-Firing Switchgrass and Waste Coal in A Power Plant: A Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Evaluation for The Ohio River Valley (SWITCH) (Final Technical Report for Ohio State/FE0032204)

Abandoned coal mine lands (AMLs) represent one of the most persistent environmental challenges in the United States. Prior to the enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) in 1977, coal mining operations were not legally required to reclaim disturbed lands, leaving behind approximately 500,000 AML sites nationwide. These sites pose severe environmental and health risks, including acid mine drainage, soil and water contamination, and spontaneous combustion of waste coal piles. Millions of Americans live within one mile of these AMLs, underscoring the urgency of remediation. Traditional reclamation practices, such as planting cool-season grasses, often fail to fully restore ecological function or leverage the economic potential of these lands. This project addressed these challenges by developing integrated strategies for resource recovery, land reclamation, and sustainable energy production. This project evaluated an integrated strategy to convert this liability into an opportunity by recovering waste coal and co-firing it with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) cultivated on reclaimed or marginal AML areas in existing coal-fired power plants. Switchgrass not only provides a renewable feedstock but also aids in land reclamation and carbon sequestration. 1) Remote Sensing and Machine Learning for Waste Coal Identification Using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and supervised classification, we applied four machine learning models to detect historical waste coal piles. Random Forest achieved the highest accuracy (precision: 86%, recall: 77%). Time-series analysis revealed gradual vegetation recovery since 1986, indicating natural reclamation processes in historical sites, while active mining areas showed ongoing disturbance. This workflow enables scalable monitoring and prioritization of reclamation efforts. 2) UAS-Based Stockpile Volume Estimation To quantify recoverable waste coal, we evaluated Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) equipped with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and multispectral sensors. Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry combined with interpolated Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) achieved strong agreement with LiDAR reference volumes (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≈147 m 3 , Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) ≈2%). Sensitivity analysis confirmed that spatial resolution significantly influences accuracy, emphasizing the need for high-resolution data for precise volume estimation. This approach offers a scalable, cost-effective, and accurate alternative to conventional ground-based surveys. 3) Switchgrass Cultivation for Bioenergy and Water Quality Improvement We assessed the hydrological and water quality impacts of converting AMLs to switchgrass production areas using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Results showed that converting 10% of the watershed area into the switchgrass production zone reduced streamflow by 3.1%, total suspended solids by 18.1%, total nitrogen by 7.6%, and total phosphorus by 6.2%, while achieving biomass yields of 8.6–9.2 metric tons per hectare. These findings highlight switchgrass as a dual-benefit strategy for land reclamation and bioenergy feedstock production. 4) Integrated Co-Firing and CCS for Carbon-Negative Power Generation We modeled co-firing scenarios using the Power Plant Flexible Model (PPFM) to evaluate plant efficiency, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Without carbon capture and storage (CCS), increasing switchgrass co-firing ratios reduced LCOE from $\$$150/MWh at 0% biomass to $\$$110/MWh at full substitution. Under CCS, costs remained higher (~$\$$250/MWh at 0% biomass) but decreased to $\$$200/MWh at 100% biomass, while enabling net-zero or carbon-negative electricity due to switchgrass sequestration benefits. Although CCS introduced efficiency penalties, pairing it with biomass co-firing offset these impacts and maximized climate benefits. Overall, optimizing co-firing ratios between 60-100%, supported by reliable logistics and storage strategies, emerged as a practical pathway to balance affordability, sustainability, and net-zero or negative GHG emissions while promoting productive reuse of AMLs.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2026

Techno-Economic, Feasibility, and Life Cycle Analysis of Renewable Propane: 2025 Update

To clarify the current and future landscape for renewable propane (RP) production, this work evaluates the value proposition of recovering RP from existing and planned hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) biorefineries and surveys emerging technologies under development or deployment. HEFA biorefineries co-produce a propane-rich fuel gas stream, normally used to meet HEFA process heat requirements, from which propane can be recovered and sold to create an additional revenue stream alongside liquid transportation fuels such as renewable diesel (RD) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). This report updates and extends a 2022 analysis of RP recovery from HEFA facilities by escalating capital and operating costs to 2024 prices, incorporating recent policy developments (including the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit), evaluating RP recovery for both RD- and SAF-focused HEFA facilities at two scales (3,000 and 75,000 barrels per day of feedstock), and quantifying the impact of RP recovery on HEFA liquid-fuel carbon intensity (CI) and associated tax credits using the 45ZCF-GREET model. For a 3,000 BPD RD-focused HEFA facility, approximately 3.5 million gallons per year (MGPY) of RP can be recovered; in this base case, the estimated payback period is 18 months based on the total installed cost of the RP recovery equipment and 36 months based on the total capital investment for the entire RP recovery project. The payback period is slightly shorter for the analogous SAF-focused configuration (approximately 4.3 MGPY RP). Sensitivity analysis shows that CAPEX magnitude, RP recovery plant scale, and CI-driven tax credit valuations are the dominant determinants of project viability. RP recovery may increase the CI of HEFA liquid fuels, which can reduce liquid-fuel tax credits (a key revenue stream for the HEFA biorefinery) and lengthen payback periods. However, RP recovery generally remains economically favorable across a wide range of plausible scenarios and market conditions. The report also summarizes emerging pathways that could expand future RP supply.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Technical and Economic Assessment and Gap Analysis of Advanced Nuclear Reactor Integration with a Reference Methanol Synthesis Plant

Efforts continue to identify the most-economic methods to decarbonize several sectors of the United States (U.S.) economy. Industrial processes such as synfuel synthesis and high value commodity chemicals rely heavily on energy-dense and easily stored and transported fossil fuels, which power and feed their operations. Steam methane reforming (SMR) is a widely used process for producing methanol. In this process, methane (CH 4 ) from natural gas (NG) reacts with steam (H 2 O) over a catalyst at high temperatures (700°1,000°C) to produce syngas, a mixture of hydrogen (H 2 ) and carbon monoxide (CO). The syngas is then converted into methanol (CH 3 OH) through a second catalytic reaction. This method is known for being an efficient and commonly employed pathway for industrial methanol production. The high-temperature heat needed for SMR, which is currently used in the natural-gas-to-methanol process, cannot be supplied by small modular nuclear reactor (SMNR) direct heating; the temperatures required for the SMR process exceed those of the main steam produced by near-market high-temperature gas reactors (HTGRs). For the conventional methanol process, this leaves possible nuclear-integration opportunities that include: (1) blending nuclear hydrogen into the SMR NG fuel, or (2) assessing alternative synthesis routes leveraging nuclear capabilities and steam electrolysis outputs. In the reference methanol plant, SMR provides the methanol-synthesis reactor with H 2 and co. In Case (2), the state-of-the-art reverse water gas shift (RWGS) pathway achieves the same, sourcing carbon from an industrial CO 2 source.

08 - HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Economic, Greenhouse Gas, and Resource Assessment for Fuel and Protein Production from Microalgae: 2022 Algae Harmonization Update

This report presents an updated “harmonization study” documenting the collaborative analysis of saline microalgae cultivation and conversion to fuels and products. Four national laboratory modeling teams reconvened to investigate the resource, economic, and environmental sustainability implications of integrated systems encompassing large-scale algae farms and conversion biorefineries. Relative to prior harmonization analyses conducted by these partners, the present effort focuses on more near-term technology potential based on the use of nutrient-replete, high-protein algal biomass compositions (more readily achievable today without sacrificing cultivation productivity) coupled with individual algae farms varying in size but generally smaller at 3,900 acres on average (more realistic in practice than a fixed 5,000-acre farm scale previously considered). Additionally, the present assessment adds further granularity around carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sourcing and transport via carbon capture of nearby point sources, as well as handling of high-saline cultivation media and resultant blowdown/disposal processing. Finally, this assessment focuses on conversion opportunities to produce both fuel (prioritizing sustainable aviation fuel [SAF], in this case via hydrothermal liquefaction) and protein products for the food and feed markets, recognizing growing needs for such products.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advanced Facility Design and AI/ML Enabled Safeguards to Establish Secure, Economical Recycling of Fast Reactor Fuels (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The project, "Advanced Facility Design and AI/ML Enabled Safeguards to Establish Secure, Economical Recycling of Fast Reactor Fuels," represents a significant advancement in nuclear fuel recycling technology. It integrates cutting-edge multimodal sensor fusion, machine learning (ML), and digital twin (DT) technologies to address challenges in material safeguarding, process optimization, and regulatory compliance for pyroprocessing facilities. This research has significantly enhanced the understanding of pyrochemical fuel recycling processes by developing innovative tools and methodologies. The Multimodal Safeguards Monitoring Unit (MSMU) combines electroanalytical techniques, Raman spectroscopy, and differential thermal analysis (DTA) to enable high-fidelity, near-real-time material accountancy measurements. Machine learning techniques, such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) autoencoders, are utilized to detect anomalies in material balances and sensor data, improving the reliability of safeguards monitoring. Additionally, digital twin technology has been established to provide real-time system-level monitoring and diagnostics, integrating physics-based models with sensor data to optimize process safety and efficiency.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Techno-Economic Analysis of a Concentrating Solar Power Plant Using Redox-Active Metal Oxides as Heat Transfer Fluid and Storage Media

We present results for a one-dimensional quasi-steady-state thermodynamic model developed for a 111.7 MW e concentrating solar power (CSP) system using a redox-active metal oxide as the heat storage media and heat transfer agent integrated with a combined cycle air Brayton power block. In the energy charging and discharging processes, the metal oxide CaAl 0.2 Mn 0.8 O 2.9-δ (CAM28) undergoes a reversible, high temperature redox cycle including an endothermic oxygen-releasing reaction and exothermic oxygen-incorporation reaction. Concentrated solar radiation heats the redox-active oxide particles under partial vacuum to drive the reduction extent deeper for increased energy density at a fixed temperature, thereby increasing storage capacity while limiting the required on sun temperature. Direct counter-current contact of the reduced particles with compressed air from the Brayton compressor releases stored chemical and sensible energy, heating the air to 1,200°C at the turbine inlet while cooling and reoxidizing the particles. The cool oxidized particles recirculate through the solar receiver subsystem for another cycle of heating and reduction (oxygen release). We applied the techno-economic model to 1) size components, 2) examine intraday operation with varying solar insolation, 3) estimate annual performance characteristics over a simulated year, 4) estimate the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), and 5) perform sensitivity analyses to evaluate factors that affect performance and cost. Simulations use hourly solar radiation data from Barstow, California to assess the performance of a 111.7 MW e system with solar multiples (SMs) varying from 1.2 to 2.4 and storage capacities of 6–14 h. The baseline system with 6 h storage and SM of 1.8 has a capacity factor of 54.2%, an increase from 32.3% capacity factor with no storage, and an average annual energy efficiency of 20.6%. Calculations show a system with an output of 710 GWh e net electricity per year, 12 h storage, and SM of 2.4 to have an installed cost of $329 million, and an LCOE of 5.98 ¢/kWh e . This value meets the U.S. Department of Energy’s SunShot 2020 target of 6.0 ¢/kWh e ( U. S Department of Energy, 2012 ), but falls just shy of the 5.0 ¢/kWh e 2030 CSP target for dispatchable electricity ( U. S Department of Energy, 2017 ). The cost and performance results are minimally sensitive to most design parameters. However, a one-point change in the weighted annual cost of capital from 8 to 7% (better understood as a 12.5% change) translates directly to an 11% decrease (0.66 ¢/kWhe) in the LCOE.

Gorman, Brandon T.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Economic impact and risk analysis of integrating sustainable aviation fuels into refineries

The growth of the aviation industry coupled with its dependence on energy dense, liquid fuels has brought sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) research to the forefront of the biofuels community. Petroleum refineries will need to decide how to satisfy the projected increase in jet fuel demand with either capital investments to debottleneck current operations or by integrating bio-blendstocks. This work seeks to compare jet production strategies on a risk-adjusted, economic performance basis using Monte-Carlo simulation and refinery optimization models. Additionally, incentive structures aiming to de-risk initial SAF production from the refiner’s perspective are explored. Results show that market sensitive incentives can reduce the financial risks associated with producing SAFs and deliver marginal abatement costs ranging between 136-182 $/Ton-CO2e.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating Basin-Scale Forest Adaptation Scenarios: Wildfire, Streamflow, Biomass, and Economic Recovery Synergies and Trade-Offs

Active forest management is applied in many parts of the western United States to reduce wildfire severity, mitigate vulnerability to drought and bark beetle mortality, and more recently, to increase snow retention and late-season streamflow. A rapidly warming climate accelerates the need for these restorative treatments, but the treatment priority among forest patches varies considerably. We simulated four treatment scenarios across the 3,450 km 2 Wenatchee River basin in eastern Washington, United States. We used a decision support tool (DST) to assess trade-offs and synergies within and among treatments on wildfire risk and smoke emissions, water yield and snow retention, biomass production, and economic return. Treatment scenarios emphasized prescribed burning ( BurnOnly ), biomass production ( MaxBiomass ), gap-based thinning to optimize water yield ( IdealWater ), and a principle-based restoration scenario ( RA1 ). Fire hazard, smoke emissions, and biomass production metrics were evaluated across scenarios using the Forest Vegetation Simulator, and water yields were modeled using the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model. Simulations were summarized to both patch- (10 1 –10 2 ha) and subwatershed- (10 3 –10 4 ha) scales, and treatment effects were evaluated against an untreated baseline landscape. We used logic models to rank effect sizes by scenario across metrics along a continuum between −1 (no or weak effect) to +1 (large effect). All treatments produced benefits across one or more ecosystem services and led to synergistic benefits to water yield and wildfire hazard reduction. Tradeoffs among resource benefits were clear in wilderness where reliance on prescribed burning without mechanical treatment increased costs and eliminated the potential for biomass recovery. The BurnOnly scenario improved fire risk metrics and streamflow, but effect sizes were lower compared to other treatments. IdealWater showed the strongest benefits overall, demonstrating the ability to capture multiple resource benefits through spatially explicit thinning. Our study provides a framework for integrating strategic and tactical models that evaluate tradeoffs and synergies gained through varied management approaches. We demonstrate the utility of decision support modeling to enhance management synergies across large landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗