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At least 883 records · Page 49

Evaluation of Rhenium Joining Methods

Coupons of rhenium-to-Cl03 flat plate joints, formed by explosive and diffusion bonding, were evaluated in a series of shear tests. Shear testing was conducted on as-received, thermally-cycled (100 cycles, from 21 to 1100 C), and thermally-aged (3 and 6 hrs at 1100 C) joint coupons. Shear tests were also conducted on joint coupons with rhenium and/or Cl03 electron beam welded tabs to simulate the joint's incorporation into a structure. Ultimate shear strength was used as a figure of merit to assess the effects of the thermal treatment and the electron beam welding of tabs on the joint coupons. All of the coupons survived thermal testing intact and without any visible degradation. Two different lots of as-received, explosively-bonded joint coupons had ultimate shear strengths of 281 and 310 MPa and 162 and 223 MPa, respectively. As-received, diffusion-bonded coupons had ultimate shear strengths of 199 and 348 MPa. For the most part, the thermally-treated and rhenium weld tab coupons had shear strengths slightly reduced or within the range of the as-received values. Coupons with Cl03 weld tabs experienced a significant reduction in shear strength. The degradation of strength appeared to be the result of a poor heat sink provided during the electron beam welding. The Cl03 base material could not dissipate heat as effectively as rhenium, leading to the formation of a brittle rhenium-niobium intermetallic.

Reed, Brian D.↗

Development and qualification testing of a laser-ignited, all-secondary (DDT) detonator

The Indian Head Division, Naval Surface Warfare Center (IHDIV, NSWC) is conducting a qualification program for a laser-ignited, all-secondary (DDT) explosive detonator. This detonator was developed jointly by IHDIV, NSWC and the Department of Energy's EG&G Mound Applied Technologies facility in Miamisburg, Ohio to accept a laser initiation signal and produce a fully developed shock wave output. The detonator performance requirements were established by the on-going IHDIV, NSWC Laser Initiated Transfer Energy Subsystem (LITES) advanced development program. Qualification of the detonator as a component utilizing existing military specifications is the selected approach for this program. The detonator is a deflagration-to-detonator transfer (DDT) device using a secondary explosive, HMX, to generate the required shock wave output. The prototype development and initial system integration tests for the LITES and for the detonator were reported at the 1992 International Pyrotechnics Society Symposium and at the 1992 Survival and Flight Equipment National Symposium. Recent results are presented for the all-fire sensitivity and qualification tests conducted at two different laser initiation pulses.

Blachowski, Thomas J.↗

Nucleosynthesis and the nova outburst

A nova outburst is the consequence of the accretion of hydrogen rich material onto a white dwarf and it can be considered as the largest hydrogen bomb in the Universe. The fuel is supplied by a secondary star in a close binary system while the strong degeneracy of the massive white dwarf acts to contain the gas during the early stages of the explosion. The containment allows the temperature in the nuclear burning region to exceed 10(sup 8)K under all circumstances. As a result a major fraction of CNO nuclei in the envelope are transformed into (beta)(sup +)-unstable nuclei. We discuss the effects of these nuclei on the evolution. Recent observational studies have shown that there are two compositional classes of novae; one which occurs on carbon-oxygen white dwarfs, and a second class that occurs on oxygen-neon-magnesium white dwarfs. In this review we will concentrate on the latter explosions since they produce the most interesting nucleosynthesis. We report both on the results of new observational determinations of nova abundances and, in addition, new hydrodynamic calculations that examine the consequences of the accretion process on 1.0M(sub (circle dot)), 1.25M(sub (circle dot)), and 1.35M(sub (circle dot)) white dwarfs. Our results show that novae can produce (sup 22)Na, (sup 26)Al, and other intermediate mass nuclei in interesting amounts. We will present the results of new calculations, done with updated nuclear reaction rates and opacities, which exhibit quantitative differences with respect to published work.

Starrfield, S.↗

Ignition and Combustion of Bulk Metals in a Microgravity Environment

This annual report summarizes the latest results obtained in a NASA-supported project to investigate the effect of gravity on the ignition and combustion of bulk metals. The experimental arrangement used for this purpose consists of a 1000-W xenon lamp that irradiates the top surface of cylindrical titanium and magnesium specimens, 4 mm in diameter and 4 mm in height, in a quiescent, pure-oxygen environment at 1 atm. Reduced gravity is obtained from the NASA LeRC DC-9 aircraft flying parabolic trajectories. Values of critical and ignition temperatures are obtained from thermocouple records. Qualitative observations and propagation rates are extracted from high-speed cinematography. Emission spectra of gas-phase reactions are obtained with an imaging spectrograph/diode array system. It was found that high applied heating rates and large internal conduction losses generate critical and ignition temperatures that are several hundred degrees above the values obtained from isothermal experiments. Because of high conduction and radiation heat losses, no appreciable effect on ignition temperatures with reduced convection in low gravity is detected. Lower propagation rates of the molten interface on titanium and of ignition waves on magnesium are obtained at reduced gravity. These rates are compared to theoretical results from heat conduction analyses with a diffusion/convection controlled reaction. The close agreement found between experimental and theoretical values indicates the importance of the influence of natural convection-enhanced oxygen transport on combustion rates. Lower oxygen flux and lack of oxide product removal in the absence of convective currents appear to be responsible for longer burning times of magnesium diffusion flames at reduced gravity. The accumulation of condensed oxide particles in the flame front at low gravity produces a previously unreported unsteady explosion phenomenon in bulk magnesium flames. This spherically symmetric explosion phenomenon seems to be driven by increased radiation heat transfer from the flame front to an evaporating metal core covered by a porous, flexible oxide coating. These important results have revealed the significant role of gravity on the burning of metals, and are now being used as the database for future experiments to be conducted with different metals at various pressures, oxygen concentrations and gravity levels.

Branch, M. C.↗

Simplified Phased-Mission System Analysis for Systems with Independent Component Repairs

Accurate analysis of reliability of system requires that it accounts for all major variations in system's operation. Most reliability analyses assume that the system configuration, success criteria, and component behavior remain the same. However, multiple phases are natural. We present a new computationally efficient technique for analysis of phased-mission systems where the operational states of a system can be described by combinations of components states (such as fault trees or assertions). Moreover, individual components may be repaired, if failed, as part of system operation but repairs are independent of the system state. For repairable systems Markov analysis techniques are used but they suffer from state space explosion. That limits the size of system that can be analyzed and it is expensive in computation. We avoid the state space explosion. The phase algebra is used to account for the effects of variable configurations, repairs, and success criteria from phase to phase. Our technique yields exact (as opposed to approximate) results. We demonstrate our technique by means of several examples and present numerical results to show the effects of phases and repairs on the system reliability/availability.

Somani, Arun K.↗

Rhenium Mechanical Properties and Joining Technology

Iridium-coated rhenium (Ir/Re) provides thermal margin for high performance and long life radiation cooled rockets. Two issues that have arisen in the development of flight Ir/Re engines are the sparsity of rhenium (Re) mechanical property data (particularly at high temperatures) required for engineering design, and the inability to directly electron beam weld Re chambers to C103 nozzle skirts. To address these issues, a Re mechanical property database is being established and techniques for creating Re/C103 transition joints are being investigated. This paper discusses the tensile testing results of powder metallurgy Re samples at temperatures from 1370 to 2090 C. Also discussed is the evaluation of Re/C103 transition pieces joined by both, explosive and diffusion bonding. Finally, the evaluation of full size Re transition pieces, joined by inertia welding, as well as explosive and diffusion bonding, is detailed.

Reed, Brian D.↗

The 1997 JANNAF Propellant Development and Characterization Subcommittee and Safety and Environmental Protection Subcommittee Joint Meeting

In the Propellant Development and Characterization Subcommittee (PDCS) meeting, topics included: the analysis, characterization, and processing of propellants and propellant ingredients; chemical reactivity; liquid propellants; test methods; rheology; surveillance and aging; and process engineering. In the Safety and Environmental Protection Subcommittee (S&EPS) meeting, topics covered included: hydrazine propellant vapor detection methods; toxicity of propellants and propellants; explosives safety; atmospheric modeling and risk assessment of toxic releases; reclamation, disposal, and demilitarization methods; and remediation of explosives or propellant contaminated sites.

Cocchiaro, James E.↗

Detailed Studies on the Structure and Dynamics of Reacting Dusty Flows at Normal and Microgravity

Two-phase reacting flows are substantially less understood compared to gas phase flows. While extensive work has been done on sprays, less attention has been given to the details of dusty reacting flows. Dusty flows are of particular interest for a wide range of applications. Particles can be present in a gas intentionally or unintentionally, and they can be inert or reacting. Inert particles can be also present in an otherwise reacting gas flow, and that can lead to flame cooling and modification of the extinction limits of a combustible mixture. Reacting solid particles can release substantial amounts of heat upon oxidation, and can be used either for propulsion (e.g. Al, B, Mg) or power generation (coal). Furthermore, accidents can occur when a reacting dust accumulates in air and which, in the presence of an ignition source, can cause explosion. Such explosions can occur during lumber milling, in grain elevators, and in mine galleries.

Egolfopoulos, Fokion N.↗

Solar Prominence Eruption

The prominence that erupts in a prominence eruption is a magnetic structure in the chromosphere and corona. It is visible in chromospheric images by virtue of chromospheric-temperature plasma suspended in the magnetic field, and belongs to that large class of magnetic structures appropriately called filaments because of their characteristic sinewy sigmoidal form. Hence, the term "filament eruption" is used interchangeably with the term "prominence eruption". The magnetic field holding a filament is prone to undergo explosive changes in configuration. In these upheavals, because the filament material is compelled by its high conductivity to ride with the magnetic field that threads it, this material is a visible tracer of the field motion. The part of the magnetic explosion displayed by the entrained filament material is the phenomenon known as a filament eruption, the topic of this article. This article begins with a description of basic observed characteristics of filament eruptions, with attention to the magnetic fields, flares, and coronal mass ejections in which erupting filaments are embedded. The present understanding of these characteristics in terms of the form and action of the magnetic field is then laid out by means of a rudimentary three-dimensional model of the field. The article ends with basic questions that this picture leaves unresolved and with remarks on the observations needed to probe these questions.

Moore, Ronald L.↗

Noise and Dynamical Pattern Selection in Solidification

The overall goal of this project was to understand in more detail how a pattern-forming system can adjust its spacing. "Pattern-forming systems," in this context, are nonequilibrium contina whose state is determined by experimentally adjustable control parameter. Below some critical value of the control system then has available to it a range of linearly stable, spatially periodic steady states, each characterized by a spacing which can lie anywhere within some band of values. These systems like directional solidification, where the solidification front is planar when the ratio of growth velocity to thermal gradient is below its critical value, but takes on a cellular shape above critical. They also include systems without interfaces, such as Benard convection, where it is the fluid velocity field which changes from zero to something spatially periodic as the control parameter is increased through its critical value. The basic question to be addressed was that of how the system chooses one of its myriad possible spacings when the control parameter is above critical, and in particular the role of noise in the selection process. Previous work on explosive crystallization had suggested that one spacing in the range should be preferred, in the sense that weak noise should eventually drive the system to that spacing. That work had also suggested a heuristic argument for identifying the preferred spacing. The project had three main objectives: to understand in more detail how a pattern-forming system can adjust its spacing; to investigate how noise drives a system to its preferred spacing; and to extend the heuristic argument for a preferred spacing in explosive crystallization to other pattern-forming systems.

Kurtze, Douglas A.↗

Ignition and Combustion of Bulk Metals in a Microgravity Environment

Results of a study of heterogeneous and homogeneous combustion of metals in reduced gravity are presented. Cylindrical titanium and magnesium samples are radiatively ignited in pure-oxygen at 1 atm. Qualitative observations, propagation rates, and burning times are extracted from high-speed cinematography. Time-resolved emission spectra of gas-phase reactions are acquired with an imaging spectrograph. Lower propagation rates of the reacting mass on titanium and of ignition waves on magnesium are obtained at reduced gravity. These rates are compared to theoretical results from fire-spread analyses with a diffusion/convection controlled reaction. The close agreement found between experimental and theoretical propagation rates indicates the strong influence of natural-convection-enhanced oxygen transp6rt on burning rates. Lower oxygen flux and lack of condensed product removal appear to be responsible for longer burning times of magnesium gas-phase diffusion flames in reduced gravity. Spherically symmetric explosions in magnesium flames at reduced gravity (termed radiation-induced metal explosions, or RIME) may be driven by increased radiation heat transfer from accumulated condensed products to an evaporating metal core covered by a porous, flexible oxide coating. In titanium specimens, predominantly heterogeneous burning characterizes the initial steady propagation of the molten mass, while homogeneous gas-phase reactions are detected around particles ejected from the molten mixture. In magnesium specimens, band and line reversal of all the UV spectral systems of Mg and MgO are attributed to the interaction between small oxide particles and the principal gaseous emitters.

Branch, Melvyn C.↗

The Impact of TRMM on Mesoscale Model Simulation of Super Typhoon Paka

Tropical cyclone Paka formed during the first week of December 1997 and underwent three periods of rapid intensification over the following two weeks. During one of these periods, which initiated early on December 10, Paka's Dvorak-measured windspeed increased from 23 to 60 m/s over a 48-hr period. On December 18, during the last rapid deepening episode, Paka became a supertyphoon with a maximum wind speed of about 80 m/s. In this study, the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) with improved physics (i.e., cloud microphysics, radiation, land-soil-vegetation-surface processes, and TOGA COARE flux scheme) and a multiple level nesting technique (135, 45 and 15 km horizontal resolution) will be used to simulate supertyphoon Paka. We performed two runs initialized with Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data sets. The first GEOS data set does not incorporate either TRMM (tropical rainfall measuring mission satellite) or SSM/I (sensor microwave imager) observed rainfall fields into the GEOS's assimilation system while the second one does. Preliminary results show that the MM5 simulated surface pressure deepened by more than 25 mb (45 km resolution domain) in the run initialized with the GEOS data set incorporating TRMM and SSM/I derived rainfall, compared to the one initialized without. However, the track and precipitation patterns are quite similar between the runs. In our presentation, we will show the impact of TRMM rainfall upon the MM5 simulation of Paka at various horizontal resolutions. We will also examine the physical processes associated with initial explosive development by comparing MM5 simulated rainfall and latent heat release. In addition, budget (vorticity, PV, momentum and heat) calculations and sensitivity tests will be performed to examine the upper-tropospheric and SST mechanisms responsible for the explosive development of Paka.

Tao, W.-K.↗

Contributions of Nimbus 7 TOMS Data to Volcanic Study and Hazard Mitigation

Nimbus TOMS data have led to advancements among many volcano-related scientific disciplines, from the initial ability to quantify SO2 clouds leading to derivations of eruptive S budgets and fluxes, to tracking of individual clouds, assessing global volcanism and atmospheric impacts. Some of the major aspects of TOMS-related research, listed below, will be reviewed and updated: (1) Measurement of volcanic SO2 clouds: Nimbus TOMS observed over 100 individual SO2 clouds during its mission lifetime; large explosive eruptions are now routinely and reliably measured by satellite. (2) Eruption processes: quantification of SO2 emissions have allowed assessments of eruption sulfur budgets, the evaluation of "excess" sulfur, and inferences of H2S emissions. (3) Detection of ash: TOMS data are now used to detect volcanic particulates in the atmosphere, providing complementary analyses to infrared methods of detection. Paired TOMS and AVHRR studies have provided invaluable information on volcanic cloud compositions and processes. (4) Cloud tracking and hazard mitigation: volcanic clouds can be considered gigantic tracers in the atmosphere, and studies of the fates of these clouds have led to new knowledge of their physical and chemical dispersion in the atmosphere for predictive models. (5) Global trends: the long term data set has provided researchers an unparalleled record of explosive volcanism, and forms a key component in assessing annual to decadal trends in global S emissions. (6) Atmospheric impacts: TOMS data have been linked to independent records of atmospheric change, in order to compare cause and effect processes following a massive injection of SO2 into the atmosphere. (7) Future TOMS instruments and applications: Nimbus TOMS has given way to new satellite platforms, with several wavelength and resolution modifications. New efforts to launch a geostationary TOMS could provide unprecedented observations of volcanic activity.

Krueger, Arlin J.↗

Environmental Conditions and Threatened and Endangered Species Populations near the Titain, Atlas, and Delta Launch Complexes, Cape Canaveral Air Station

Launches of Delta, Atlas, and Titan rockets from Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS) have potential environmental effects. These could occur from direct impacts of launches or indirectly from habitat alterations. This report summarizes a three-year study (1995-1998) characterizing the environment, with particular attention to threatened and endangered species, near Delta, Atlas, and Titan launch facilities. Cape Canaveral has been modified by Air Force development and by 50 years of fire suppression. The dominant vegetation type around the Delta and Atlas launch complexes is coastal oak hammock forest. Oak scrub is the predominant upland vegetation type near the Titan launch complexes. Compositionally, these are coastal scrub communities that has been unburned for greater than 40 years and have developed into closed canopy, low-stature forests. Herbaceous vegetation around active and inactive facilities, coastal strand and dune vegetation near the Atlantic Ocean, and exotic vegetation in disturbed areas are common. Marsh and estuarine vegetation is most common west of the Titan complexes. Launch effects to vegetation include scorch, acid, and particulate deposition. Discernable, cumulative effects are limited to small areas near the launch complexes. Water quality samples were collected at the Titan, Atlas, and Delta launch complexes in September 1995 (wet season) and January 1996 (dry season). Samples were analyzed for heavy metals, chloride, total organic carbon, calcium, iron, magnesium, sodium, total alkalinity, pH, and conductivity. Differences between fresh, brackish, and saline surface waters were evident. The natural buffering capacity of the environment surrounding the CCAS launch complexes is adequate for neutralizing acid deposition in rainfall and launch deposition. Populations of the Florida Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma coerulescens), a Federally- listed, threatened species, reside near the launch complexes. Thirty-seven to forty-one scrub-jay territories were located at Titan, Atlas, and Delta launch complexes between 1995 and 1997. No direct impacts to scrub-jays were observed as a result of normal launches. The explosion of the Delta rocket in January 1997 caused direct impacts to the habitat of several scrub-jays families, from fire and debris; however, no scrub-jay mortality was observed. Mortality exceeded reproductive output at all areas over the course of the study. Populations of the southeastern beach mouse (Peromyscus polionotus niveiventris) populations, a Federally listed, threatened species, reside near all the launch complexes. Hurricane Erin and several other tropical storms impacted several areas at the inception of the study in 1995 causing coastal habitat alterations as a result of salt-water intrusion. Both the habitat and the beach mice populations recovered during the course of the study. No direct impacts to southeastern beach mice were observed as a result of normal launch operations. Direct impacts were observed to the habitat as a result of the explosion of the Delta rocket in January 1997. This alteration of the habitant resulted in a shift in use with the mice moving on to the newly burned part of the site. Waterbirds use wetlands and aquatic systems near the launch complexes. Species include the Federally-listed, endangered Wood Stork (Mycteria americana) and several state-listed species of special concern including the Snowy Egret (Egretta thula thula), Reddish Egret (Egretta rufescens rufescens), White Ibis (Eudocimus albus), Roseate Spoonbill (Ajaia ajaja), Tricolored Heron (Egretta tricolor ruficolis), and Little Blue Heron (Egretta caerulea). No impacts to these populations resulting from any launch operations were observed. Gopher tortoises (Gopherus polyphemus) also occur around the launch complexes. Most of those observed appeared to be in good condition; however, upper respiratory tract disease is known to occur in the population. Cape Canaveral Air Station, including areas near active launch complexes, remains important habitat for a variety of native plants and animals including threatened and endangered species. Direct negative effects of current launch systems appear limited. Additional monitoring of these populations and habitats is required to determine if subtle, long-term changes are occurring, to determine if new launch systems and facilities cause other effects, and to determine the effects of habitat restoration and management.

Oddy, Donna M.↗

Ionospheric Signature of Surface Mine Blasts from Global Positioning System Measurements

Sources such as atmospheric or buried explosions and shallow earthquakes are known to produce infrasonic pressure waves in the atmosphere. Because of the coupling between neutral particles and electrons at ionospheric altitudes, these acoustic and gravity waves induce variations of the ionospheric electron density. The Global Positioning System (GPS) provides a way of directly measuring the total electron content in the ionosphere and, therefore, of detecting such perturbations in the upper atmosphere. In July and August 1996, three large surface mine blasts (1.5 Kt each) were detonated at the Black Thunder coal mine in eastern Wyoming. As part of a seismic and acoustic monitoring- experiment, we deployed five dual-frequency GPS receivers at distances ranging from 50 to 200 km from the mine and were able to detect the ionospheric perturbation caused by the blasts. The perturbation starts 10 to 15 min after the blast, lasts for about 30 min, and propagates with an apparent horizontal velocity of 1200 meters per second. Its amplitude reaches 3 x 10 (exp 14) el per square meters in the 7-3 min period band, a value close to the ionospheric perturbation caused by the M = 6.7 Northridge earthquake. The small signal-to-noise ratio of the perturbation can be improved by slant-stacking the electron content time-series recorded by the different GPS receivers taking into account the horizontal propagation of the perturbation. The energy of the perturbation is concentrated in the 200 to 300 second period band, a result consistent with previous observations and numerical model predictions. The 300 second band probably corresponds to gravity modes and shorter periods to acoustic modes, respectively. Using a 1-D stratified velocity model of the atmosphere we show that linear acoustic ray tracing fits arrival times at all GPS receivers. We interpret the perturbation as a direct acoustic wave caused by the explosion itself. This study shows that even relatively small subsurface events can produce ionospheric perturbations that are above the detection threshold of the GPS technique. By sensing derivative signals, which can be detected over a relatively broad region, it appears that GPS might be particularly useful for source characterization within the first acoustic quiet zone where infrasound would probably be ineffective. This suggests that dual-frequency GPS monitoring could contribute to Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty verification.

Calais, Eric↗

External Pulsed Plasma Propulsion (EPPP) Analysis Maturation

External Pulsed Plasma Propulsion (EPPP) systems are at the stage of engineering infancy with evolving paradigms for application. performance and general characteristics. Recent efforts have focused on an approach that employs existing technologies with near term EPPP development for usage in interplanetary exploration and asteroid/comet deflection. if mandated. The inherent advantages of EPPP are discussed and its application to a variety of propulsion concepts is explored. These include, but are not limited to, utilizing energy sources such as fission. fusion and antimatter, as well as, improved chemical explosives. A mars mission scenario is presented as a demonstration of its capability using existing technologies. A suggested alternate means to improve EPPP efficiencies could also lead to a heavy lift (non-nuclear) launch vehicle capability. Conceivably, true low-cost, access to space is possible using advanced explosive propellants and/or coupling the EPPP vehicle to a "beam propellant" concept. EPPP systems appear to offer an approach that can potentially cover ETO through interstellar transportation capability. A technology roadmap is presented that shows mutual benefits pertaining to a substantial number of existing space propulsion and research areas.

Bonometti, Joesph A.↗

WSTF Pyrovalve Test Program Status: 2000

Extensive propulsion and pyrotechnic testing has been in progress at NASA/JSC White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) since 1995, starting with the Mars Observer Propulsion and Pyrotechnics Corrective Action Test Program (MOCATP). The MOCATP has been concluded, but extensive pyrovalve testing plus research and development continues at WSTF. Our capability to accurately characterize pyrovalve combustion product blow-by into propellant systems, evaluate hydrazine and monomethylhydrazine (MMH) thermal decomposition initiated by blow-by, and characterize valve actuation operation, continues to be used and refined. Data from this and several low blow-by pyrovalves manufactured by Conax and other corporations continues to be evaluated as a potential corrective measure for blow-by induced propellant explosions. Additionally, new measurement techniques are being developed, advanced pyrovalve development is under-way, and nondestructive examination (NDE) methods are being developed to help ensure pyrovalve safety. Starting in 2000 these data are being formatted into a pyrovalve application and testing handbook. Near-term testing includes evaluation of 3/8-in. Conax pyrovalves and other commercially available valves; development of advanced pyrovalve subcomponent technology; investigation of NDE techniques to evaluate pyrovalve ram seals and real-time measurement of housing deformation; and investigation of pyrotechnically induced explosive hydrazine decomposition both through testing and modeling. Evaluation of 3/8-in. Conax valves is to include operational margin testing to be accomplished at the NASA Langley Research Center.

Saulsberry, Regor L.↗

The Use of the Satellite Breakup Risk Assessment Model (SBRAM) to Characterize Collision Risk to Manned Spacecraft

NASA uses environment models such as ORDEM96 to characterize the long-term orbital debris collision hazard for spacecraft in LEO. Occasionally, however, there are breakups of satellites or rocket bodies that create enhanced collision hazard for a period of time. This enhanced collision hazard can pose increased risks to space operations - especially those involving manned missions where the tolerance for risk is very low. NASA has developed SBRAM to simulate the enhanced debris environment in the days and weeks that follow such a breakup. This simulation provides the kind of risk probabilities that can be used by mission planners to consider if changes are warranted for the mission. Announcements of breakups come to NASA from US Space Command as soon as they are identified. The pre-breakup orbit and time of breakup are used to determine the initial conditions of the explosion. SBRAM uses the latest explosion models developed at NASA to simulate a debris cloud for the breakup. The model uses a Monte Carlo technique to create a random debris cloud from the probability distributions in the breakup model. Each piece of debris randomly created in the cloud is propagated in a deterministic manner to include the effects of drag and other orbital perturbations. The detailed geometry of each simulated close approach to the target spacecraft is noted and logged and the collision probability is computed using an estimated probability density in down-range and cross-range positions of both the target spacecraft and debris object. The collision probability is computed from the overlap of these probability densities for each close-approach geometry and summed over all computed conjunctions. Cloud propagation runs over the desired time interval are then repeated until the scale of the collision risk can be estimated to a desired precision. This paper presents an overview of the SBRAM model and a number of examples, both real and hypothetical, to demonstrate its use. In addition, a number of different examples are shown how the data can be used by decision makers on issues such as spacecraft orientation and timing of EVAs.

Matney, Mark J.↗