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At least 883 records · Page 49

Covariance matrices for variance-suppressed simulations

ABSTRACT Cosmological N-body simulations provide numerical predictions of the structure of the Universe against which to compare data from ongoing and future surveys, but the growing volume of the Universe mapped by surveys requires correspondingly lower statistical uncertainties in simulations, usually achieved by increasing simulation sizes at the expense of computational power. It was recently proposed to reduce simulation variance without incurring additional computational costs by adopting fixed-amplitude initial conditions. This method has been demonstrated not to introduce bias in various statistics, including the two-point statistics of galaxy samples typically used for extracting cosmological parameters from galaxy redshift survey data, but requires us to revisit current methods for estimating covariance matrices of clustering statistics for simulations. In this work, we find that it is not trivial to construct covariance matrices analytically for fixed-amplitude simulations, but we demonstrate that ezmock (Effective Zel’dovich approximation mock catalogue), the most efficient method for constructing mock catalogues with accurate two- and three-point statistics, provides reasonable covariance matrix estimates for such simulations. We further examine how the variance suppression obtained by amplitude-fixing depends on three-point clustering, small-scale clustering, and galaxy bias, and propose intuitive explanations for the effects we observe based on the ezmock bias model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Micro Reactor Simulation Using the PROTEUS Suite in FY19

Two micro reactor cores were simulated using the MOC solver of PROTEUS: MegaPower for a heat pipe micro reactor and Holos-Quad for a high-temperature gas-cooled micro reactor. Verification of PROTEUS standalone was performed by simulating 2D and 3D core benchmark problems developed based on MegaPower and Holos-Quad. Simulation results indicated that PROTEUS successfully modelled 2D and 3D cores of the MegaPower and Holos-Quad micro reactors and PROTEUS eigenvalues agreed well with the SERPENT Monte Carlo solutions. For a heat pipe cooled micro reactor, multiphysics simulations were performed using PROTEUS / FLUENT / ANLHTP. The coupling system of the three codes were developed using Python-based drivers, which exchange the data (power, temperature, and heat rate) required for the coupling and control the boundary conditions of FLUENT and ANLHTP. The coupled system was qualitatively verified using a 3D unit assembly problem composed of six fuel rods and seven heat pipes, which was developed based on the MegaPower compositions. The steady-state problem was solved using FLUENT / ANLHTP with given asymmetric fuel powers, demonstrating the reasonable convergence of temperatures of 7 heat pipes. Transient simulations were also performed by making one out of 7 heat pipes fail. For the transient, the coupled system of PROTEUS / FLUENT / ANLHTP demonstrated reasonable changes of total power and heat pipe temperatures with time, accounting for temperature feedback effects. In this simulation, no effect of structural change was accounted for, which will be performed using ANSYS-mechanical in future along with further verification with larger or whole-core 3D problems.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DECENTRALIZED APPROACH TO MULTI-ZONE GREY-BOX MODELING FOR MODEL-BASED PREDICTIVE CONTROL

This study aims to improve the easiness of utilizing the grey-box model (i.e., Resistance-Capacitance circuit) for Model-based Predictive Control (MPC). The primary barrier of implementing the MPC is estimating the control-oriented building model that needs to be computationally inexpensive and quick but reasonably precise in predicting building load and indoor conditions. The estimating of the model parameters becomes more complicated when the building scale is larger; e.g., multi-zone building. In this study, a decentralized approach is introduced; each zone is split and individually estimated with measured boundary temperature from adjacent zones integrated into one single system model. The proposed decentralized method is demonstrated with experimental data from a full-scale multi-zone test cell compared with the centralized reference case.

Joe, Jaewan↗

Absorption Correction for Reliable Pair Distribution Functions from Low Energy X-ray Sources

This paper explores the development and testing of a simple absorption correction model for processing powder X-ray diffraction data from Debye−Scherrer geometry laboratory X-ray experiments. This may be used as a preprocessing step before using PDFGETX3 to obtain reliable pair distribution functions (PDFs). Various experimental and theoretical methods for estimating μR were explored, and the most appropriate μR values for correction were identified for different capillary diameters and X-ray beam sizes. We identify operational ranges of μR where a reasonable signal-to-noise ratio is possible after correction. A user-friendly software package, DIFFPY.LABPDFPROC, is presented that can help estimate μR and perform absorption corrections with a rapid calculation for efficient processing.

Absorption↗

Explaining the structure sensitivity of Pt and Rh for aqueous-phase hydrogenation of phenol

Phenol is an important model compound to understand the thermocatalytic (TCH) and electrocatalytic hydrogenation (ECH) of biomass to biofuels. Although Pt and Rh are among the most studied catalysts for aqueous-phase phenol hydrogenation, the reason why certain facets are active for ECH and TCH is not fully understood. Herein, we identify the active facet of Pt and Rh catalysts for aqueous-phase hydrogenation of phenol and explain the origin of the size-dependent activity trends of Pt and Rh nanoparticles. Phenol adsorption energies extracted on the active sites of Pt and Rh nanoparticles on carbon by fitting kinetic data show that the active sites adsorb phenol weakly. We predict that the turnover frequencies (TOFs) for the hydrogenation of phenol to cyclohexanone on Pt(111) and Rh(111) terraces are higher than those on (221) stepped facets based on density functional theory modeling and mean-field microkinetic simulations. The higher activities of the (111) terraces are due to lower activation energies and weaker phenol adsorption, preventing high coverages of phenol from inhibiting hydrogen adsorption. We measure that the TOF for ECH of phenol increases as the Rh nanoparticle diameter increases from 2 to 10 nm at 298 K and -0.1 V vs the reversible hydrogen electrode, qualitatively matching prior reports for Pt nanoparticles. The increase in experimental TOFs as Pt and Rh nanoparticle diameters increase is due to a larger fraction of terraces on larger particles. These findings clarify the structure sensitivity and active site of Pt and Rh for the hydrogenation of phenol and will inform the catalyst design for the hydrogenation of bio-oils.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

ENSO modulation of summertime tropospheric ozone over China

Ozone (O 3 ) is one of the most critical pollutants affecting air quality in China in recent years. In this study, different impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm/cold phases on summertime tropospheric O 3 over China are examined based on model simulations, ground measurements, and reanalysis data. Summertime surface O 3 concentrations in China show a positive correlation with ENSO index during years 1990–2019, with the largest increases by 20% over southern China in El Niño (warm phase) relative to La Niña (cold phase) years. The ENSO modulation extends to the middle and even upper troposphere. Our analysis indicates that O 3 flux convergence associated with weakened southerlies is the primary reason for the increase in tropospheric O 3 over southern China. In addition, the O 3 increase during El Niño years is mainly from domestic emissions in China. This study highlights the potential significance of ENSO in modulating tropospheric O 3 concentrations in China, with great implications for O 3 pollution mitigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pion interferometry at 200 GeV using anisotropic hydrodynamics

In this paper, we continue our phenomenological studies of heavy-ion collisions using 3 + 1 D anisotropic hydrodynamics (aHydro). In previous works, we compared quasiparticle aHydro (aHydroQP) with ALICE 2.76 TeV Pb-Pb and BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider 200 GeV Au-Au collision results. At both energies, the agreement was quite good between aHydroQP and the experimental data for many observables. In this work, we present comparisons of the Hanbury Brown–Twiss (HBT) radii and their ratios determined using π + π + pairs produced in 200 GeV Au-Au collisions. We first present comparisons with STAR results for the HBT radii and their ratios. We then present comparisons with PHENIX results for the HBT radii and their ratios. In both cases, we find reasonable agreement between aHydroQP predictions and available experimental results for the ratios of HBT radii. At the level of the radii themselves, in some cases quantitative differences on the order of 10–20% remain, which deserve further research.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Wave Energy Converter Power Take-Off Modeling and Validation From Experimental Bench Tests

This article describes the implementation of a new numerical model of the power take-off system installed in the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute wave energy converter, a device developed to provide power to various oceanic research missions. The simultaneous presence of hydraulic, pneumatic, and electrical subsystems in the power take-off system represents a significant challenge in forging an accurate model able to replicate the main dynamic characteristics of the system. The validation of the new numerical model is addressed by comparing simulations with the measurements obtained during a series of bench tests. Data from the bench tests show good agreement with the numerical model. The validated model provides deeper insights into the complex nonlinear dynamics of the power take-off system and will support further performance improvements in the future.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Uncertainties in greenhouse gas emission factors: A comprehensive analysis of switchgrass‐based biofuel production

Abstract This study investigates uncertainties in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission factors related to switchgrass‐based biofuel production in Michigan. Using three life cycle assessment (LCA) databases—US lifecycle inventory (USLCI) database, GREET, and Ecoinvent—each with multiple versions, we recalculated the global warming intensity (GWI) and GHG mitigation potential in a static calculation. Employing Monte Carlo simulations along with local and global sensitivity analyses, we assess uncertainties and pinpoint key parameters influencing GWI. The convergence of results across our previous study, static calculations, and Monte Carlo simulations enhances the credibility of estimated GWI values. Static calculations, validated by Monte Carlo simulations, offer reasonable central tendencies, providing a robust foundation for policy considerations. However, the wider range observed in Monte Carlo simulations underscores the importance of potential variations and uncertainties in real‐world applications. Sensitivity analyses identify biofuel yield, GHG emissions of electricity, and soil organic carbon (SOC) change as pivotal parameters influencing GWI. Decreasing uncertainties in GWI may be achieved by making greater efforts to acquire more precise data on these parameters. Our study emphasizes the significance of considering diverse GHG factors and databases in GWI assessments and stresses the need for accurate electricity fuel mixes, crucial information for refining GWI assessments and informing strategies for sustainable biofuel production.

Kim, Seungdo↗

Dynamical model for social distancing in the U.S. during the COVID-19 epidemic

Social distancing has led to a “flattening of the curve” in many states across the U.S. This is part of a novel, massive, global social experiment which has served to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic in the absence of a vaccine or effective anti-viral drugs. Hence it is important to be able to forecast hospitalizations reasonably accurately. We propose on phenomenological grounds a random walk/generalized diffusion equation which incorporates the effect of social distancing to describe the temporal evolution of the probability of having a given number of hospitalizations. The probability density function is log-normal in the number of hospitalizations, which is useful in describing pandemics where the number of hospitalizations is very high. We used this insight and data to make forecasts for states using Monte Carlo methods. Back testing validates our approach, which yields good results about a week into the future. States are beginning to reopen at the time of submission of this paper and our forecasts indicate possible precursors of increased hospitalizations. However, the trends we forecast for hospitalizations as well as infections thus far show moderate growth. Additionally we studied the reproducibility in New York (Italian strain) and California (Wuhan strain). We find that even if there is a difference in the transmission of the two strains, social distancing has been able to control the progression of COVID 19.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Object-Based Evaluation of Dynamical and Statistical Downscaled Precipitation Products over CONUS

High-resolution precipitation data, generated through dynamical downscaling (DD) or statistical downscaling (SD) of global climate model output, provide critical information for regional climate assessment and adaptation planning. Most downscaling development and validation have focused on accurate gridscale precipitation construction and ignored the spatial structure of precipitation across model grids and at the event scale. However, many applications, e.g., hydrologic modeling and the analysis using the downscaled precipitation, require a reasonable representation of the spatial structure of precipitation within watersheds. Therefore, a set of standard metrics to evaluate the representation of the spatial structure of individual storms across diverse downscaled precipitation products is desired. To address this need, we conducted an object-based evaluation of precipitation in decades-long DD and SD products over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Specifically, we evaluate their ability to reproduce various features of precipitation objects in the observations: total volume, precipitation area, peak intensity, and spatial structure. Multiple metrics (bias, Perkins score, and nonparametric statistical tests) are used to quantify model performance. Our evaluation reveals notable variations in performance among individual products across different climate zones and seasons, as well as between extreme and nonextreme events. In general, most DD products exhibit balanced performance across the four precipitation object features, while SD products vary more significantly in their performance across products. Based on this comprehensive evaluation, we provide guidance on choosing downscaled products for specific regions, seasons, and precipitation object features. These findings and recommendations can inform precipitation-relevant modeling and analysis over CONUS, guide future downscaling technique developments, and provide actionable information for climate impact assessment and adaptation.

Downscaling↗

Object-Based Evaluation of Dynamical and Statistical Downscaled Precipitation Products over CONUS

High-resolution precipitation data, generated through dynamical downscaling (DD) or statistical downscaling (SD) of global climate model output, provide critical information for regional climate assessment and adaptation planning. Most downscaling development and validation have focused on accurate gridscale precipitation construction and ignored the spatial structure of precipitation across model grids and at the event scale. However, many applications, e.g., hydrologic modeling and the analysis using the downscaled precipitation, require a reasonable representation of the spatial structure of precipitation within watersheds. Therefore, a set of standard metrics to evaluate the representation of the spatial structure of individual storms across diverse downscaled precipitation products is desired. To address this need, we conducted an object-based evaluation of precipitation in decades-long DD and SD products over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Specifically, we evaluate their ability to reproduce various features of precipitation objects in the observations: total volume, precipitation area, peak intensity, and spatial structure. Multiple metrics (bias, Perkins score, and nonparametric statistical tests) are used to quantify model performance. Our evaluation reveals notable variations in performance among individual products across different climate zones and seasons, as well as between extreme and nonextreme events. In general, most DD products exhibit balanced performance across the four precipitation object features, while SD products vary more significantly in their performance across products. Based on this comprehensive evaluation, we provide guidance on choosing downscaled products for specific regions, seasons, and precipitation object features. These findings and recommendations can inform precipitation-relevant modeling and analysis over CONUS, guide future downscaling technique developments, and provide actionable information for climate impact assessment and adaptation.

Environmental sciences↗

Modeling Urban Acoustic Noise in the Las Vegas, NV Region

Ambient infrasound noise in quiet, rural environments has been extensively studied and well-characterized through noise models for several decades. More recently, creating noise models for high-noise rural environments has also become an area of active research. However, far less work has been done to create generalized low-frequency noise models for urban areas. The high ambient noise levels expected in cities and other highly populated areas means that these environments are regarded as poor locations for acoustic sensors, and historically, sensor deployment in urban areas were avoided for this reason. However, there are several advantages to placing sensors in urban environments, including convenience of deployment and maintenance, and increasingly, necessity, as more previously rural areas become populated. This study seeks to characterize trends in low-frequency urban noise by creating a background noise model for Las Vegas, NV, using the Las Vegas Infrasound Array (LVIA): a network of eleven infrasound sensors deployed throughout the city. Data included in this study spans from 2019 to 2021 and provides a largely uninterrupted record of noise levels in the city from 0.1–500 Hz, with only minor discontinuities on individual stations. We organize raw data from the LVIA sensors into hourly power spectral density (PSD) averages for each station and select from these PSDs to create frequency distributions for time periods of interest . These frequency distributions are converted into probability density functions (PDFs), which are then used to evaluate variations in frequency and amplitude over daily to seasonal timescale s. In addition to PDFs, the median, 5 th percentile, and 95 th percentile amplitude values are calculated across the entire frequency range. This methodology follows a well-established process for noise model creation.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

On a Spectral Method for β -particle Bound Excitation Collisions in Kilonovae

The interaction of β-particles with the weakly ionized plasma background is an important mechanism for powering the kilonova (KN) transient signal from neutron star mergers. For this purpose, we present an implementation of the approximate fast-particle collision kernel, described by Inokuti following the seminal formulation of Bethe, in a spectral solver of the Vlasov–Maxwell–Boltzmann equation. In particular, we expand the fast-particle plane-wave atomic excitation kernel into coefficients of the Hermite basis, and derive the relevant discrete spectral system. In this fast-particle limit, the approach permits the direct use of atomic data, including optical oscillator strengths, normally applied to photon–matter interaction. The resulting spectral matrix is implemented in the MASS-APP spectral solver framework, in a way that avoids full matrix storage per spatial zone. We numerically verify aspects of the matrix construction, and present a proof-of-principle 3D simulation of a 2D axisymmetric KN ejecta snapshot. Our preliminary numerical results indicate that a reasonable choice of Hermite basis parameters for β-particles in the KN is a bulk velocity parameter u = 0, a thermal velocity parameter α = 0.5c, and a 9 × 9 × 9 mode velocity basis set (Hermite orders of 0–8 in each dimension). For interior-ejecta sample zones, we estimate that the ratio of thermalization from large-angle (≳2fdg5) bound excitation scattering to total thermalization is ~0.002–0.003.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Towards Pareto optimal high entropy hydrides via data-driven materials discovery

The ability to rapidly screen material performance in the vast space of high entropy alloys is of critical importance to efficiently identify optimal hydride candidates for various use cases. Given the prohibitive complexity of first principles simulations and large-scale sampling required to rigorously predict hydrogen equilibrium in these systems, we turn to compositional machine learning models as the most feasible approach to screen on the order of tens of thousands of candidate equimolar high entropy alloys (HEAs). Critically, we show that machine learning models can predict hydride thermodynamics and capacities with reasonable accuracy (e.g. a mean absolute error in desorption enthalpy prediction of ~5 kJ mol H 2 –1 ) and that explainability analyses capture the competing trade-offs that arise from feature interdependence. We can therefore elucidate the multi-dimensional Pareto optimal set of materials, i.e., where two or more competing objective properties can't be simultaneously improved by another material. This provides rapid and efficient down-selection of the highest priority candidates for more time-consuming density functional theory investigations and experimental validation. Various targets were selected from the predicted Pareto front (with saturation capacities approaching two hydrogen per metal and desorption enthalpy less than 60 kJ mol H 2 –1 ) and were experimentally synthesized, characterized, and tested amongst an international collaboration group to validate the proposed novel hydrides. Finally, additional top-predicted candidates are suggested to the community for future synthesis efforts, and we conclude with an outlook on improving the current approach for the next generation of computational HEA hydride discovery efforts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Numerical simulation of involute-plate research reactor flow behavior using RANS, LES and DNS

This paper investigates the flow behavior of involute-plate research reactors by performing Reynolds-Averaged Navier Stokes simulation (RANS), Large Eddy Simulation (LES) and Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) of the channel flow between fuel plates. By modeling turbulence with different numerical approaches, this study provides data with three levels of fidelity. For the RANS simulation, three widely used turbulence models, i.e., k-ε, k-ω, Reynolds Stress Turbulence model (RST) are applied by using the commercial CFD code STAR-CCM +. For LES and DNS, the open-source CFD code, Nek5000, is used given its outstanding scalability on High Performance Computer (HPC) and high-order technique. The results from RANS simulations are compared with that from LES and DNS for benchmarking. Both macroscale parameters and turbulence statistics, such as velocity magnitude, lateral velocity and turbulence kinetic energy, are presented and analyzed. The results from RANS simulation achieve good agreement with LES and DNS on velocity and turbulence kinetic energy prediction. The RST turbulence model predicts the most similar flow pattern of lateral velocity as compared to LES and DNS. The Lambda-2 (λ2) criterion with a reasonable threshold is used to demonstrate the instantaneous vortices distribution in the involute channel from both LES and DNS calculation. The DNS simulation captures more detailed turbulence especially near the corner, which explains the discrepancy between LES and DNS results near the corner. The normalized RMS error are defined and calculated to assess the performance of those turbulence models. The RST model captures the anisotropic feature of turbulence, which enable it to outperform other turbulence models for predicting the flow behavior in an involute channel. Although some discrepancies are found between LES and DNS results in the corner, the overall deviations between LES and DNS are found to be small. In conclusion, given that the computational cost of DNS calculation is an order of magnitude higher, using LES data for benchmarking RANS model is a cost-effective approach.

DNS↗

Refined views of ancient ocean chemistry: Tracking trace element incorporation in pyrite framboids using atom probe tomography

The trace element chemistry of pyrite can be used to determine the origin, timing, and conditions of formation of ore deposits; as a vectoring tool for mineral exploration; and to determine the evolution of the Earth’s oceanic and atmospheric chemistry. However, little is known about whether trace elements are held with the pyrite structure or within nano-inclusions of other phases. This distinction is important for two primary reasons. First, trace element incorporation into the pyrite structure can affect the partitioning of other trace elements. Second, if trace elements are held within nano-inclusions, the partition coefficient of the mineral phases that make up the nano-inclusion, rather than pyrite, are the critical consideration in related interpretations. Previous studies addressing this topic have used laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry; however, the resulting data do not provide sufficient spatial resolution to delineate trace element distributions unless the inclusions are large. Further, they use these flat element profiles in time resolved laser ablation output graphs to argue that pyrite trace element content provides a direct relationship between trace element content of seawater and pyrite trace element content. To improve resolution, we have used atom probe tomography to characterize trace element distributions in pyrite framboids from the Cariaco Basin and Demerara Rise in three-dimensions at sub-nanometer resolution. Manganese was found to be concentrated in the pyrite nanocrystal part of the original framboid structure. In contrast, Ni was mostly found along the grain boundary, though it still appeared to be contained within the pyrite structure. Copper was concentrated in later pyrite overgrowths, and As varied in its location. These observations suggest that some important trace elements are incorporated into pyrite during early diagenesis, even in euxinic settings dominated by water-column pyrite formation. Statistical analysis was used to determine whether trace elements were incorporated in the lattice or within nanoscale inclusions (referred to here are nano-inclusions). We found that As, Ni, Cu, and Mn were commonly held within the pyrite structure, but As, Ni, and Cu can also be held as nano-inclusions or within grain interfaces. Incorporation of As is known to enhance the incorporation of other trace elements and in this case appears to correlated to elevated Ni and Cu concentrations in the Cariaco Basin samples. Furthermore, understanding these relationships strongly impacts our ability to utilize pyrite trace metal concentrations to analyze and quantify early ocean chemistry and its evolution through time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamics of Fungal and Bacterial Biomass Carbon in Natural Ecosystems: Site-level Applications of the CLM-Microbe Model

Explicitly representing microbial processes has been recognized as a key improvement to Earth system models for the realistic projections of soil carbon (C) and climate dynamics. The CLM-Microbe model builds upon the CLM4.5 and explicitly represents two major soil microbial groups, fungi and bacteria. Based on the compiled time-series data of fungal (FBC) and bacterial (BBC) biomass C from nine biomes, we parameterized and validated the CLM-Microbe model, and further conducted sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis for simulating C cycling. The model performance was evaluated with mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R2) for relative change in FBC and BBC. The CLM-Microbe model is able to reasonably capture the seasonal dynamics of FBC and BBC across biomes, particularly for tropical/subtropical forest, temperate broadleaf forest, and grassland, with MAE < 0.49 for FBC and <0.36 for BBC and RMSE <0.52 FBC and <0.39 for BBC, while R2 values are relatively smaller in some biomes (e.g., shrub) due to small sample sizes. We found good consistencies between simulated and observed FBC (R 2 =0.70, P<0.001) and BBC (R 2 =0.26, P<0.05) on average across biomes, but the model is not able to fully capture the large variation in observed FBC and BBC. Sensitivity analysis shows the most critical parameters are turnover rate, carbon-to-nitrogen ratio of fungi and bacteria, and microbial assimilation efficiency. This study confirms that the explicit representation of soil microbial mechanisms enhances model performance in simulating C variables such as heterotrophic respiration and soil organic C density. The further application of the CLM-Microbe model would deepen our understanding of microbial contributions to the global C cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗