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At least 883 records · Page 49

Supercell precipitation contribution to the United States hydroclimate

Abstract This research seeks to understand simulated supercell precipitation characteristics across the conterminous United States (CONUS) using high‐resolution, convection‐permitting, dynamically downscaled simulations for three 15‐year epochs. Epochs include a historical end‐of‐20th‐century period (1990–2005) and two end‐of‐21st‐century (2085–2100) scenarios for intermediate and pessimistic greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. Simulated updraft helicity, which measures the corkscrew flow within a storm's updraft, is used as a proxy for supercells. An algorithm tracks and catalogues updraft helicity swaths that, when buffered, are used to acquire simulated precipitation from supercells. The historical epoch provides a baseline climatology of supercell precipitation for a contemporary climate, which is then compared against the two future epochs to assess how supercell precipitation may change during the 21st century. Despite their relatively small size, supercells provide critical precipitation to the Wheat and Corn Belts, large expanses of CONUS pasture and rangeland, regional aquifers and several large river basins. Many areas in the central CONUS receive upwards of 3%–6% of their annual and 5%–8% of their warm‐season precipitation from these storms. Results suggest that precipitation contribution from supercells will decrease in the future across most of the High Plains and Central and Northern Great Plains with robust increases likely across the south‐central and Southeast regions. Supercell precipitation rates are expected to increase for large portions of the CONUS by the end‐of‐the‐21st‐century, suggesting a growing threat for flash floods from these storms as they become more efficient precipitation producers. This research provides an initial perspective on the magnitude of supercell precipitation and potential changes to this important hydrologic input to assist water‐sensitive industries, private and public insurance markets, agriculture entities, as well as inform plans to mitigate and build resilience to rapid environmental and societal change.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Rainfall Morphology in Semi-Tropical Convergence Zones

Central Florida is the ideal test laboratory for studying convergence zone-induced convection. The region regularly experiences sea breeze fronts and rainfall-induced outflow boundaries. The focus of this study is the common yet poorly-studied convergence zone established by the interaction of the sea breeze front and an outflow boundary. Previous studies have investigated mechanisms primarily affecting storm initiation by such convergence zones. Few have focused on rainfall morphology yet these storms contribute a significant amount precipitation to the annual rainfall budget. Low-level convergence and mid-tropospheric moisture have both been shown to correlate with rainfall amounts in Florida. Using 2D and 3D numerical simulations, the roles of low-level convergence and mid-tropospheric moisture in rainfall evolution are examined. The results indicate that time-averaged, vertical moisture flux (VMF) at the sea breeze front/outflow convergence zone is directly and linearly proportional to initial condensation rates. This proportionality establishes a similar relationship between VMF and initial rainfall. Vertical moisture flux, which encompasses depth and magnitude of convergence, is better correlated to initial rainfall production than surface moisture convergence. This extends early observational studies which linked rainfall in Florida to surface moisture convergence. The amount and distribution of mid-tropospheric moisture determines how rainfall associated with secondary cells develop. Rainfall amount and efficiency varied significantly over an observable range of relative humidities in the 850- 500 mb layer even though rainfall evolution was similar during the initial or "first-cell" period. Rainfall variability was attributed to drier mid-tropospheric environments inhibiting secondary cell development through entrainment effects. Observationally, 850-500 mb moisture structure exhibits wider variability than lower level moisture, which is virtually always present in Florida. A likely consequence of the variability in 850-500 moisture is a stronger statistical correlation to rainfall, which observational studies have noted. The study indicates that vertical moisture flux forcing at convergence zones is critical in determining rainfall in the initial stage of development but plays a decreasing role in rainfall evolution as the system matures. The mid-tropospheric moisture (e.g. environment) plays an increasing role in rainfall evolution as the system matures. This suggests the need to improve measurements of magnitude/depth of convergence and mid-tropospheric moisture distribution. It also highlights the need for better parameterization of entrainment and vertical moisture distribution in larger-scale models.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗

Tool for Automated Retrieval of Generic Event Tracks (TARGET)

Methods have been developed to identify and track tornado-producing mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) automatically over the continental United States, in order to facilitate systematic studies of these powerful and often destructive events. Several data sources were combined to ensure event identification accuracy. Records of watches and warnings issued by National Weather Service (NWS), and tornado locations and tracks from the Tornado History Project (THP) were used to locate MCSs in high-resolution precipitation observations and GOES infrared (11-micron) Rapid Scan Operation (RSO) imagery. Thresholds are then applied to the latter two data sets to define MCS events and track their developments. MCSs produce a broad range of severe convective weather events that are significantly affecting the living conditions of the populations exposed to them. Understanding how MCSs grow and develop could help scientists improve their weather prediction models, and also provide tools to decision-makers whose goals are to protect populations and their property. Associating storm cells across frames of remotely sensed images poses a difficult problem because storms evolve, split, and merge. Any storm-tracking method should include the following processes: storm identification, storm tracking, and quantification of storm intensity and activity. The spatiotemporal coordinates of the tracks will enable researchers to obtain other coincident observations to conduct more thorough studies of these events. In addition to their tracked locations, their areal extents, precipitation intensities, and accumulations all as functions of their evolutions in time were also obtained and recorded for these events. All parameters so derived can be catalogued into a moving object database (MODB) for custom queries. The purpose of this software is to provide a generalized, cross-platform, pluggable tool for identifying events within a set of scientific data based upon specified criteria with the possibility of storing identified events into a searchable database. The core of the application uses an implementation of the connected component labeling (CCL) algorithm to identify areas of interest, then uses a set of criteria to establish spatial and temporal relationships between identified components. The CCL algorithm is used for identifying objects within images for computer vision. This application applies it to scientific data sets using arbitrary criteria. The most novel concept was applying a generalized CCL implementation to scientific data sets for establishing events both spatially and temporally. The combination of several existing concepts (pluggable components, generalized CCL algorithm, etc.) into one application is also novel. In addition, how the system is designed, i.e., its extensibility with pluggable components, and its configurability with a simple configuration file, is innovative. This allows the system to be applied to new scenarios with ease.

Clune, Thomas↗

Modeling of Convective-Stratiform Precipitation Processes: Sensitivity to Partitioning Methods

Six different convective-stratiform separation techniques, including a new technique that utilizes the ratio of vertical and terminal velocities, are compared and evaluated using two-dimensional numerical simulations of a tropical [Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE)] and midlatitude continental [Preliminary Regional Experiment for STORM-Central (PRESTORM)] squall line. Comparisons are made in terms of rainfall, cloud coverage, mass fluxes, apparent heating and moistening, mean hydrometeor profiles, CFADs (Contoured Frequency with Altitude Diagrams), microphysics, and latent heating retrieval. Overall, it was found that the different separation techniques produced results that qualitatively agreed. However, the quantitative differences were significant. Observational comparisons were unable to conclusively evaluate the performance of the techniques. Latent heating retrieval was shown to be sensitive to the use of separation technique mainly due to the stratiform region for methods that found very little stratiform rain.

Lang, S. E.↗

Global Dayside Ionospheric Uplift and Enhancement Associated with Interplanetary Electric Fields

The interplanetary shock/electric field event of 5-6 November 2001 is analyzed using ACE interplanetary data. The consequential ionospheric effects are studied using GPS receiver data from the CHAMP and SAC-C satellites and altimeter data from the TOPEX/ Poseidon satellite. Data from ~100 ground-based GPS receivers as well as Brazilian Digisonde and Pacific sector magnetometer data are also used. The dawn-to-dusk interplanetary electric field was initially ~33 mV/m just after the forward shock (IMF BZ = -48 nT) and later reached a peak value of ~54 mV/m 1 hour and 40 min later (BZ = -78 nT). The electric field was ~45 mV/m (BZ = -65 nT) 2 hours after the shock. This electric field generated a magnetic storm of intensity DST = -275 nT. The dayside satellite GPS receiver data plus ground-based GPS data indicate that the entire equatorial and midlatitude (up to +/-50(deg) magnetic latitude (MLAT)) dayside ionosphere was uplifted, significantly increasing the electron content (and densities) at altitudes greater than 430 km (CHAMP orbital altitude). This uplift peaked ~2 1/2 hours after the shock passage. The effect of the uplift on the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) lasted for 4 to 5 hours. Our hypothesis is that the interplanetary electric field ''promptly penetrated'' to the ionosphere, and the dayside plasma was convected (by E x B) to higher altitudes. Plasma upward transport/convergence led to a ~55-60% increase in equatorial ionospheric TEC to values above ~430 km (at 1930 LT). This transport/convergence plus photoionization of atmospheric neutrals at lower altitudes caused a 21% TEC increase in equatorial ionospheric TEC at ~1400 LT (from ground-based measurements). During the intense electric field interval, there was a sharp plasma ''shoulder'' detected at midlatitudes by the GPS receiver and altimeter satellites. This shoulder moves equatorward from -54(deg) to -37(deg) MLAT during the development of the main phase of the magnetic storm. We presume this to be an ionospheric signature of the plasmapause and its motion. The total TEC increase of this shoulder is ~80%. Part of this increase may be due to a "superfountain effect." The dayside ionospheric TEC above ~430 km decreased to values ~45% lower than quiet day values 7 to 9 hours after the beginning of the electric field event. The total equatorial ionospheric TEC decrease was ~16%. This decrease occurred both at midlatitudes and at the equator. We presume that thermospheric winds and neutral composition changes produced by the storm-time Joule heating, disturbance dynamo electric fields, and electric fields at auroral and subauroral latitudes are responsible for these decreases.

ionosphere↗

An Accurate and Automated Convective Vortex Detection Method for Long-Duration Infrasound Microbarometer Data

Heating of the surficial layer of the atmosphere often generates convective vortices, known as “dust devils” when they entrain visible debris. Convective vortices are common on both Earth and Mars, where they affect the climate via dust loading, contribute to wind erosion, impact the efficiency of photovoltaic systems, and potentially result in injury and property damage. However, long-duration terrestrial convective vortex activity records are rare. We have developed a high-precision and high-recall method to extract convective vortex signatures from infrasound microbarometer data streams. The techniques utilizes a wavelet-based detector to capture potential events and then a template matching system to extract the duration of the vortex. Since permanent and temporary infrasound sensors networks are present throughout the globe (many with open data), our method unlocks a vast new convective vortex dataset without requiring the deployment of specialized instrumentation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A two-dimensional model of the plasmasphere - Refilling time constants

A 2D model of the plasmasphere has been developed to study the temporal evolution of plasma density in the equatorial plane of the magnetosphere. This model includes the supply and loss of hydrogen ions due to ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling as well as the effects of E x B convection. A parametric model describing the required coupling fluxes has been developed which utilizes empirical models of the neutral atmosphere, the ionosphere and the saturated plasmasphere. The plasmaspheric model has been used to examine the time it takes for the plasmasphere to refill after it has been depleted by a magnetic storm. The time it takes for the plasmasphere to reach 90 percent of its equilibrium level ranges from 3 days at L = 3 during solar minimum to as high as 100 days at L = 5 during solar maximum. Refilling is also dependent on the month of the year, with refilling requiring a longer period of time at solar maximum during June than during December for L greater than 3.2.

Rasmussen, Craig E.↗

Field and data analysis studies related to the atmospheric environment

This report summarizes work on a broad array of projects including: (1) applications of meteorological and/or oceanographic satellites; (2) improvement of the current set of NASA/USAF lightning related launch commit criteria rules; (3) the design, building, testing and deployment of a set of cylindrical field mills for aircraft use; (4) the study of marginal electrification storm conditions in relationship to the current launch commit rules for the space shuttle and various other launch vehicles using an instrumented aircraft; (5) support of the DC-8 and ER-2 lightning instrument package as part of both the Tropical Ocean - Global Atmospheric/Coupled Ocean-Atmospheric Response Experiment and the Convection and Moisture Experiment; (6) design of electronic circuitry and microprocessor firmware for the NASA Advanced Ground Based Field Mill; (7) design and testing of electronic and computer instrumentation for atmospheric electricity measurements; (8) simulating observations from a lightning imaging sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring satellite; and (9) supporting scientific visualization and the development of computer software tools.

Kidder, Stanley↗

Applications of OMI Tropospheric NO(Sub 2) Data: Air Quality Trends in the US and Lightning NO(x) Source Strength

This talk will be presented in two parts: 1) an analysis of tropospheric column NO2 trends in the eastern half of the United States over the period 2005 to 2009 and 2) estimation of lightning NO(x) production rates based on OMI observations and lightning flash rate data. The air quality trends in the eastern US will be determined for specific subregions using tropospheric column NO2 data from OMI for 2005 through 2008 and from GOME-2 for 2007 through 2009. This period is characterized by significant NO(x) emission reductions at power plants within most of this region. The air quality trends will be compared with those estimated from continuous emission monitoring data from the power plants compiled by the US Environmental Protection Agency. OMI NO2 data have also been used to estimate lightning NOx production per flash in selected storms near Costa Rica and Panama during the 2007 NASA TC4 field campaign and over the continental US, Gulf of Mexico, and western Atlantic during the summers of 2005 and 2006. The lightning signal is extracted from the OMI data through a custom retrieval in which an NO2 profile representative of convective outflow is used in the airmass factor calculation and the background NO2 column is subtracted from the tropospheric column. When combined with NO(x)/NO2 ratios from the NASA GMT model and observed flash rates, the resulting estimates of NO(x) production per flash are comparable to those estimated obtained from analyses of aircraft data and cloud-resolving modeling.

Pickering, Kenneth↗

The Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Storm Integrated Lightning Flash Extent

Objective: To investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern the production of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in thunderstorms, such as flash rate, type (intracloud [IC] vs. cloud-to-ground [CG] ) and extent. Data and Methodology: a) NASA MSFC Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) is applied to North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Vaisala National Lightning Detection Network(TradeMark) (NLDN) observations following ordinary convective cells through their lifecycle. b) LNOM provides estimates of flash type, channel length distributions, lightning segment altitude distributions (SADs) and lightning NOx production profiles (Koshak et al. 2012). c) LNOM lightning characteristics are compared to the evolution of updraft and precipitation properties inferred from dual-Doppler (DD) and polarimetric radar analyses of UAHuntsville Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR, Cband, polarimetric) and KHTX (S-band, Doppler).

Carey, Lawrence D.↗

Projected changes to severe thunderstorm environments as a result of twenty-first century warming from RegCM CORDEX-CORE simulations

Hazardous weather related to the occurrence of severe thunderstorms including tornadoes, high-winds, and hail cause significant damage globally to life and property every year. Yet the impact on these storms from a warming climate remains a difficult task due to their transient nature. Here, we investigate the change in large-scale environments in which severe thunderstorms form during twenty-first century warming (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) in a group of RegCM CORDEX-CORE simulations. Severe potential is measured in terms of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and vertical wind-shear during the severe seasons in three regions which are known to currently be prone to severe hazards: North America, subtropical South America, and eastern India and Bangladesh. In every region, environments supportive for severe thunderstorms are projected to increase during the warm season months in both the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios during the twenty-first century. The number of days supportive for severe thunderstorms increases by several days per season over the vast majority of each region by the end of the century. Analyzing the CAPE and shear trends during the twenty-first century, we find seasonally and regionally specific changes driving the increased severe potential. Twenty-first century surface warming is clearly driving a robust increase in CAPE in all regions, however poleward displacement of vertical shear in the future leads to the displacement of severe environments over North America and South America. The results found here relate that severe impacts in the future cannot be generalized globally, and that regionally specific changes in vertical shear may drive future movement of regions prone to severe weather.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The High Latitude Ionospheric Response to the Major May 2024 Geomagnetic Storm: A Synoptic View

Abstract The high latitude ionospheric evolution of the May 10‐11, 2024, geomagnetic storm is investigated in terms of Total Electron Content and contextualized with Incoherent Scatter Radar and ionosonde observations. Substantial plasma lifting is observed within the initial Storm Enhanced Density plume with ionospheric peak heights increasing by 150–300 km, reaching levels of up to 630 km. Scintillation is observed within the cusp during the initial expansion phase of the storm, spreading across the auroral oval thereafter. Patch transport into the polar cap produces broad regions of scintillation that are rapidly cleared from the region after a strong Interplanetary Magnetic Field reversal at 2230UT. Strong heating and composition changes result in the complete absence of the F2‐layer on the eleventh, suffocating high latitude convection from dense plasma necessary for Tongue of Ionization and patch formation, ultimately resulting in a suppression of polar cap scintillation on the eleventh.

Themens, David R.↗

Spectacular Nucleosynthesis from Early Massive Stars

Abstract Stars that formed with an initial mass of over 50 M ⊙ are very rare today, but they are thought to be more common in the early Universe. The fates of those early, metal-poor, massive stars are highly uncertain. Most are expected to directly collapse to black holes, while some may explode as a result of rotationally powered engines or the pair-creation instability. We present the chemical abundances of J0931+0038, a nearby low-mass star identified in early follow-up of the SDSS-V Milky Way Mapper, which preserves the signature of unusual nucleosynthesis from a massive star in the early Universe. J0931+0038 has a relatively high metallicity ([Fe/H] = −1.76 ± 0.13) but an extreme odd–even abundance pattern, with some of the lowest known abundance ratios of [N/Fe], [Na/Fe], [K/Fe], [Sc/Fe], and [Ba/Fe]. The implication is that a majority of its metals originated in a single extremely metal-poor nucleosynthetic source. An extensive search through nucleosynthesis predictions finds a clear preference for progenitors with initial mass >50 M ⊙ , making J0931+0038 one of the first observational constraints on nucleosynthesis in this mass range. However, the full abundance pattern is not matched by any models in the literature. J0931+0038 thus presents a challenge for the next generation of nucleosynthesis models and motivates the study of high-mass progenitor stars impacted by convection, rotation, jets, and/or binary companions. Though rare, more examples of unusual early nucleosynthesis in metal-poor stars should be found in upcoming large spectroscopic surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Water resources planning for rivers draining into mobile bay

A hydrodynamic model describing water movement and tidal elevation is formulated, computed, and used to provide basic data about water quality in natural systems. The hydrodynamic model is based on two-dimensional, unsteady flow equations. The water mass is considered to be reasonably mixed such that integration (averaging) in the depth direction is a valid restriction. Convective acceleration, the Coriolis force, wind and bottom interactions are included as contributing terms in the momentum equations. The solution of the equations is applied to Mobile Bay, and used to investigate the influence that river discharge rate, wind direction and speed, and tidal condition have on water circulation and holdup within the bay. Storm surge conditions, oil spill transport, artificial island construction, dredging, and areas subject to flooding are other topics which could be investigated using the mathematical modeling approach.

Ng, S.↗

Analysis of airborne Doppler lidar, Doppler radar and tall tower measurements of atmospheric flows in quiescent and stormy weather

The first experiment to combine airborne Doppler Lidar and ground-based dual Doppler Radar measurements of wind to detail the lower tropospheric flows in quiescent and stormy weather was conducted in central Oklahoma during four days in June-July 1981. Data from these unique remote sensing instruments, coupled with data from conventional in-situ facilities, i.e., 500-m meteorological tower, rawinsonde, and surface based sensors, were analyzed to enhance understanding of wind, waves and turbulence. The purposes of the study were to: (1) compare winds mapped by ground-based dual Doppler radars, airborne Doppler lidar, and anemometers on a tower; (2) compare measured atmospheric boundary layer flow with flows predicted by theoretical models; (3) investigate the kinematic structure of air mass boundaries that precede the development of severe storms; and (4) study the kinematic structure of thunderstorm phenomena (downdrafts, gust fronts, etc.) that produce wind shear and turbulence hazardous to aircraft operations. The report consists of three parts: Part 1, Intercomparison of Wind Data from Airborne Lidar, Ground-Based Radars and Instrumented 444 m Tower; Part 2, The Structure of the Convective Atmospheric Boundary Layer as Revealed by Lidar and Doppler Radars; and Part 3, Doppler Lidar Observations in Thunderstorm Environments.

Bluestein, H. B.↗

Warm Core Structure and Mid-Level Intrusion in Hurricane Bonnie (1998) During Landfalling on 26 August 1998

On 26 August 1998 during CAMEX-3, Hurricane Bonnie was overflown by the NASA ER-2 aircraft instrumented with the EDOP X-Band radar and other instrumentation. Bonnie was an asymmetric storm on this day with several prominent features during its brush with the East coast. One of these features was strong intrusion of dry air on the west side of the storm. During the interaction of this westerly shear with the storm, the precipitation band rotates cyclonically from northwest to the south of the storm center. In this paper, we examine the structure of this dry intrusion and its effect on the storm. The EDOP observations are analyzed along with dropsondes, flight-level observations (NASA DC-8 and NOAA P3), and satellite data. The most apparent feature of the EDOP observations are the strong shears in the interface between the western eyewall updraft, and the dry intrusion. Mammatus are formed along this interface reminiscent of convective rear inflows, and suggestive of intense drying of the air through subsidence. This observation as well as other aspects of the analysis are related to recent numerical simulations of Hurricane Bonnie.

Heymsfield, G. M.↗

Quasi‐Steady State Supersaturation: Do High Values Derived From ESCAPE Represent Real High Supersaturations and the Potential for Condensational Invigoration?

Deep convective clouds were intensively sampled during the Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE) with coordinated flights of the NRC Convair-580 and SPEC Learjet. A total of 219 updraft core segments were sampled over coastal Texas and Louisiana under diverse meteorological conditions. Median updraft properties included widths of ∼1 km, velocities of 4.8 m s −1 , droplet number concentrations of ∼400 cm −3 , and liquid water contents of 0.9 g m −3 . The limitations of using the quasi-steady state approximation to derive supersaturations were explored. Supersaturation (S QSS ) estimated from in situ observations under a quasi-steady state assumption averaged 0.4% but occasionally exceeded 2%, with values >1% (high supersaturations) identified as statistical outliers. Two case studies illustrated the conditions linked to high supersaturations. In a storm over the Gulf, median core S QSS reached 2.46% in the developing stage compared to 2.17% in the mature stage under similar thermodynamic conditions. In a storm over coastal Louisiana, S QSS peaked near 11% within a 13.7-m s −1 updraft, accompanied by predominantly supercooled liquid droplets at −13°C and exceptionally low diameter concentrations of 0.29 mm cm −3 . Bootstrap analysis of all sampled cores showed that high supersaturations are most probable in cold and mixed-phase regimes with moderate to strong updrafts and are strongly influenced by vertical velocity and droplet number concentrations. In conclusion, while extreme supersaturations (∼10%) were rare, their occurrence underscores the need for targeted multiplatform observations to resolve their spatiotemporal variability and assess their potential role in deep convective invigoration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lightning Imaging Sensor for the International Space Station

A Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) is proposed for flight on the International Space Station (ISS) platform to conduct scientific research support of the Earth Science Enterprise (ESE). The LIS, identical to one being flown on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) optically detects lightning flashes that occur within its field-of-view during both day and night conditions with storm scale resolution and a high, uniform detection efficiency. The ISS, with an orbital inclination of 51.6 deg, will extend the measurements from TRMM into the important mid-latitudinal regions of the Earth. The lightning measurements from LIS support important ESE science objectives including increased knowledge of the amount, distribution, and variability of deep convection and natural sources and sinks of key trace gases (e.g., NOx) on a global scale. A space-qualified LIS instrument built as a spare for the TRMM mission is available for integration onto the external truss of the ISS keeping the overall mission costs low. The LIS, which is divided into a sensor assembly and the electronics unit, weighs approximately 20 kg, consumes less than 25 W of power, and generates a telemetry data rate of only 6 kb/s.

Christian, Hugh J.↗