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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

PRIME

SAND2021-0565 O PRIME is a modeling framework designed for the real-time characterization and forecasting of partially observed epidemics. The method is designed to help guide medical resource allocation in the early epoch of the outbreak. Characterization is the estimation of infection spread parameters using daily counts of symptomatic patients. The estimation problem is posed as one of Bayesian inference and solved using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique. The framework can accommodate multiple epidemic waves and can help identify different disease dynamics at the regional, state, and country levels. Examples are provided using publicly available COVID-19 data. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Safta, Cosmin↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computational epidemiological tools for pandemic analysis, understanding, and response

This suite of software tools is being developed to enhance and analyze computational epidemiological models that incorporate realistic disease dynamics and human behavior, with the goal of supporting epidemic and pandemic response. Specifically, the tools enable data analysis, feature extraction, data synthesis, machine learning model development, and prediction of key public health outcomes, such as cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and behavioral responses, for airborne infectious diseases like COVID-19 and influenza.

Butts, David↗
DOE OSTI2021

High-throughput virtual laboratory for drug discovery using massive datasets

Time-to-solution for structure-based screening of massive chemical databases for COVID-19 drug discovery has been decreased by an order of magnitude, and a virtual laboratory has been deployed at scale on up to 27,612 GPUs on the Summit supercomputer, allowing an average molecular docking of 19,028 compounds per second. Over one billion compounds were docked to two SARS-CoV-2 protein structures with full optimization of ligand position and 20 poses per docking, each in under 24 hours. GPU acceleration and high-throughput optimizations of the docking program produced 350× mean speedup over the CPU version (50× speedup per node). GPU acceleration of both feature calculation for machine-learning based scoring and distributed database queries reduced processing of the 2.4 TB output by orders of magnitude. The resulting 50× speedup for the full pipeline reduces an initial 43 day runtime to 21 hours per protein for providing high-scoring compounds to experimental collaborators for validation assays.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Opinion: Lighting Research During and After the Pandemic

For many lighting researchers, the recent restrictions related to COVID-19 have paused most in-person laboratory or field experiments. In certain countries, regulatory institutions have allowed such experiments to resume but issued safety recommendations like pre-checking participants for disease symptoms and excluding those that are especially vulnerable. To avoid potential complications and delays, researchers are likely to resort to other research designs that enable remote research — eliminating the need for the experimenter and subjects to be in the same room. While unanticipated, this shift to remote research methods is an opportunity to revisit and further develop remote experimental techniques, which can have beneficial long-lasting implications on lighting research during and after the pandemic. Perhaps the most common type of remote research is online experiments; which can greatly benefit from improved techniques to allow for greater control or characterization of experimental conditions, like those proposed by Villa and Labayrade . These techniques require validation specific to the type of response collected and context, e.g. space type and attributes. New research techniques continue to emerge and will enable remote collection of objective measures such as gaze direction and high dynamic range images (HDRIs) without specialized equipment. In fact, many of these methods and techniques are commonly used in other disciplines, like vision science and psychology, and can be adapted for lighting research. Not all lighting studies can be conducted online, but in the age of ubiquitous and connected technologies, there is a largely missed opportunity to utilize crowdsourced responses to lighting conditions in real environments where people live and go about their daily lives without the research being limited to a certain time and laboratory locations. For instance, outdoor street luminaires can be rated by passersby using ecological momentary assessments on mobile phones. While this approach does not provide laboratory-level control over experimental conditions, it can provide more contextual responses resulting from ‘normal’ dynamic gaze, behavior, and interactions. Further, it can also reduce bias related to the experimental setting. Further development of remote research methods and their use in lighting research can improve the quality of lighting research. Given that sample sizes in most lighting research are relatively small, remote research can substantially increase sample sizes, reduce research costs, and shorten study duration, all while reducing interaction between experimenter and subjects. Another benefit is reaching a wider audience and including under-represented individuals who typically are not reachable using common recruitment methods. The pandemic has set back our plans for in-lab experiments, but can it inspire us to think of new and creative ways to expand lighting research?

Abboushi, Belal K.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sociodemographic effects on pandemic fatigue are multifaceted and context-specific: A longitudinal analysis of physical distancing adherence

Pandemic fatigue emerged early during the COVID-19 pandemic and remains a concern as new variants emerge and ongoing public health measures are needed to control them. A wide range of factors can affect pandemic fatigue, but empiric research indicating which may be most important to adherence in specific populations is lacking. We conducted a longitudinal study of changes in physical distancing in two cohorts: adults living with children <18 years and adults ≥50 years old. Six types of non-work, non-household contacts were ascertained at six times from April to October 2020. We used generalized estimating equations Poisson regression to estimate the one-week change in contact rate and how this differed based on sociodemographic characteristics. The rate of all contact types increased during the middle of the study period and decreased toward the end. Changes in contact rates over time differed according to several sociodemographic characteristics, including age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, household composition, and access to transportation. Furthermore, the factors influencing the rate of change in contact rates differed by the type or setting of the contact, for example contacts as a result of visiting another person’s home versus during a retail outing. These results provide evidence for potential mechanisms by which pandemic fatigue has resulted in lower physical distancing adherence.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A quantitative model used to compare within-host SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, and SARS-CoV dynamics provides insights into the pathogenesis and treatment of SARS-CoV-2

The scientific community is focused on developing antiviral therapies to mitigate the impacts of the ongoing novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. This will be facilitated by improved understanding of viral dynamics within infected hosts. Here, using a mathematical model in combination with published viral load data, we compare within-host viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 with analogous dynamics of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. Our quantitative analyses using a mathematical model revealed that the within-host reproduction number at symptom onset of SARS-CoV-2 was statistically significantly larger than that of MERS-CoV and similar to that of SARS-CoV. In addition, the time from symptom onset to the viral load peak for SARS-CoV-2 infection was shorter than those of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. These findings suggest the difficulty of controlling SARS-CoV-2 infection by antivirals. We further used the viral dynamics model to predict the efficacy of potential antiviral drugs that have different modes of action. The efficacy was measured by the reduction in the viral load area under the curve (AUC). Our results indicate that therapies that block de novo infection or virus production are likely to be effective if and only if initiated before the viral load peak (which appears 2–3 days after symptom onset), but therapies that promote cytotoxicity of infected cells are likely to have effects with less sensitivity to the timing of treatment initiation. Furthermore, combining a therapy that promotes cytotoxicity and one that blocks de novo infection or virus production synergistically reduces the AUC with early treatment. Our unique modeling approach provides insights into the pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 and may be useful for development of antiviral therapies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning mathematical models for incidence estimation during pandemics

Accurate estimates of the incidence of infectious diseases are key for the control of epidemics. However, healthcare systems are often unable to test the population exhaustively, especially when asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic cases are widespread; this leads to significant and systematic under-reporting of the real incidence. Here, we propose a machine learning approach to estimate the incidence of a pandemic in real-time, using reported cases and the overall test rate. In particular, we use Bayesian symbolic regression to automatically learn the closed-form mathematical models that most parsimoniously describe incidence. We develop and validate our models using COVID-19 incidence values for nine different countries, confirming their ability to accurately predict daily incidence. Remarkably, despite the differences in epidemic trajectories and dynamics across countries, we find that a single model for all countries offers a more parsimonious description and is more predictive of actual incidence compared to separate models for each country. Our results show the potential to accurately model incidence in real-time using closed-form mathematical models, providing a valuable tool for public health decision-makers.

Fajardo-Fontiveros, Oscar (ORCID:0000000207058972)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparing variability in diagnosis of upper respiratory tract infections in patients using syndromic, next generation sequencing, and PCR-based methods

Early and accurate diagnosis of respiratory pathogens and associated outbreaks can allow for the control of spread, epidemiological modeling, targeted treatment, and decision making–as is evident with the current COVID-19 pandemic. Many respiratory infections share common symptoms, making them difficult to diagnose using only syndromic presentation. Yet, with delays in getting reference laboratory tests and limited availability and poor sensitivity of point-of-care tests, syndromic diagnosis is the most-relied upon method in clinical practice today. Here, we examine the variability in diagnostic identification of respiratory infections during the annual infection cycle in northern New Mexico, by comparing syndromic diagnostics with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and sequencing-based methods, with the goal of assessing gaps in our current ability to identify respiratory pathogens. Of 97 individuals that presented with symptoms of respiratory infection, only 23 were positive for at least one RNA virus, as confirmed by sequencing. Whereas influenza virus (n = 7) was expected during this infection cycle, we also observed coronavirus (n = 7), respiratory syncytial virus (n = 8), parainfluenza virus (n = 4), and human metapneumovirus (n = 1) in individuals with respiratory infection symptoms. Four patients were coinfected with two viruses. In 21 individuals that tested positive using PCR, RNA sequencing completely matched in only 12 (57%) of these individuals. Few individuals (37.1%) were diagnosed to have an upper respiratory tract infection or viral syndrome by syndromic diagnostics, and the type of virus could only be distinguished in one patient. Thus, current syndromic diagnostic approaches fail to accurately identify respiratory pathogens associated with infection and are not suited to capture emerging threats in an accurate fashion. We conclude there is a critical and urgent need for layered agnostic diagnostics to track known and unknown pathogens at the point of care to control future outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines

Background: The importance of infectious disease epidemic forecasting and prediction research is underscored by decades of communicable disease outbreaks, including COVID-19. Unlike other fields of medical research, such as clinical trials and systematic reviews, no reporting guidelines exist for reporting epidemic forecasting and prediction research despite their utility. We therefore developed the EPIFORGE checklist, a guideline for standardized reporting of epidemic forecasting research. Methods and findings: We developed this checklist using a best-practice process for development of reporting guidelines, involving a Delphi process and broad consultation with an international panel of infectious disease modelers and model end users. The objectives of these guidelines are to improve the consistency, reproducibility, comparability, and quality of epidemic forecasting reporting. The guidelines are not designed to advise scientists on how to perform epidemic forecasting and prediction research, but rather to serve as a standard for reporting critical methodological details of such studies. Conclusions: These guidelines have been submitted to the EQUATOR network, in addition to hosting by other dedicated webpages to facilitate feedback and journal endorsement.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identifying key determinants and dynamics of SARS-CoV-2/ACE2 tight interaction

SARS-CoV-2 virus, the causative agent of Covid-19, has fired up a global pandemic. The virus interacts with the human receptor angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) for an invasion via receptor binding domain (RBD) on its spike protein. To provide a deeper understanding of this interaction, we performed microsecond simulations of the RBD-ACE2 complex for SARS-CoV-2 and compared it with the closely related SARS-CoV discovered in 2003. We show residues in the RBD of SARS-CoV-2 that were mutated from SARS-CoV, collectively help make the RBD anchor much stronger to the N-terminal part of ACE2 than the corresponding residues on RBD of SARS-CoV. This would result in a reduced dissociation rate of SARS-CoV-2 from human receptor protein compared to SARS-CoV. The phenomenon was consistently observed in simulations beyond 500 ns and was reproducible across different force fields. Altogether, our study adds more insight into the critical dynamics of the key residues at the virus spike and human receptor binding interface and potentially aids the development of diagnostics and therapeutics to combat the pandemic efficiently.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dry heat sterilization as a method to recycle N95 respirator masks: The importance of fit

In times of crisis, including the current COVID-19 pandemic, the supply chain of filtering facepiece respirators, such as N95 respirators, are disrupted. To combat shortages of N95 respirators, many institutions were forced to decontaminate and reuse respirators. While several reports have evaluated the impact on filtration as a measurement of preservation of respirator function after decontamination, the equally important fact of maintaining proper fit to the users’ face has been understudied. In the current study, we demonstrate the complete inactivation of SARS-CoV-2 and preservation of fit test performance of N95 respirators following treatment with dry heat. We apply scanning electron microscopy with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (SEM/EDS), X-ray diffraction (XRD) measurements, Raman spectroscopy, and contact angle measurements to analyze filter material changes as a consequence of different decontamination treatments. We further compared the integrity of the respirator after autoclaving versus dry heat treatment via quantitative fit testing and found that autoclaving, but not dry heat, causes the fit of the respirator onto the users face to fail, thereby rendering the decontaminated respirator unusable. Our findings highlight the importance to account for both efficacy of disinfection and mask fit when reprocessing respirators to for clinical redeployment.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A cell-based Papain-like Protease (PLpro) activity assay for rapid detection of active SARS-CoV-2 infections and antivirals

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its variants are a continuous threat to human life. An urgent need remains for simple and fast tests that reliably detect active infections with SARS-CoV-2 and its variants in the early stage of infection. Here we introduce a simple and rapid activity-based diagnostic (ABDx) test that identifies SARS-CoV-2 infections by measuring the activity of a viral enzyme, Papain-Like protease (PLpro). The test system consists of a peptide that fluoresces when cleaved by SARS PLpro that is active in crude, unprocessed lysates from human tongue scrapes and saliva. Test results are obtained in 30 minutes or less using widely available fluorescence plate readers, or a battery-operated portable instrument for on-site testing. Proof-of-concept was obtained in a study on clinical specimens collected from patients with COVID-19 like symptoms who tested positive (n = 10) or negative (n = 10) with LIAT RT-PCR using nasal mid turbinate swabs. When saliva from these patients was tested with in-house endpoint RT-PCR, 17 were positive and only 5 specimens were negative, of which 2 became positive when tested 5 days later. PLpro activity correlated in 17 of these cases (3 out of 3 negatives and 14 out of 16 positives, with one invalid specimen). Despite the small number of samples, the agreement was significant (p value = 0.01). Two false negatives were detected, one from a sample with a late Ct value of 35 in diagnostic RT-PCR, indicating that an active infection was no longer present. The PLpro assay is easily scalable and expected to detect all viable SARS-CoV-2 variants, making it attractive as a screening and surveillance tool. Additionally, we show feasibility of the platform as a new homogeneous phenotypic assay for rapid screening of SARS-CoV-2 antiviral drugs and neutralizing antibodies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using intrahost single nucleotide variant data to predict SARS-CoV-2 detection cycle threshold values

Over the last four years, each successive wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has been caused by variants with mutations that improve the transmissibility of the virus. Despite this, we still lack tools for predicting clinically important features of the virus. In this study, we show that it is possible to predict the PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values from clinical detection assays using sequence data. Ct values often correspond with patient viral load and the epidemiological trajectory of the pandemic. Using a collection of 36,335 high quality genomes, we built models from SARS-CoV-2 intrahost single nucleotide variant (iSNV) data, computing XGBoost models from the frequencies of A, T, G, C, insertions, and deletions at each position relative to the Wuhan-Hu-1 reference genome. Our best model had an R 2 of 0.604 [0.593–0.616, 95% confidence interval] and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 5.247 [5.156–5.337], demonstrating modest predictive power. Overall, we show that the results are stable relative to an external holdout set of genomes selected from SRA and are robust to patient status and the detection instruments that were used. This study highlights the importance of developing modeling strategies that can be applied to publicly available genome sequence data for use in disease prevention and control.

COVID19↗
DOE OSTI2025

Detecting outbreaks using a spatial latent field

In this paper, we present a method for estimating the infection-rate of a disease as a spatial-temporal field. Our data comprises time-series case-counts of symptomatic patients in various areal units of a region. We extend an epidemiological model, originally designed for a single areal unit, to accommodate multiple units. The field estimation is framed within a Bayesian context, utilizing a parameterized Gaussian random field as a spatial prior. We apply an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo method to sample the posterior distribution of the model parameters condition on COVID-19 case-count data from three adjacent counties in New Mexico, USA. Our results suggest that the correlation between epidemiological dynamics in neighboring regions helps regularize estimations in areas with high variance (i.e., poor quality) data. Using the calibrated epidemic model, we forecast the infection-rate over each areal unit and develop a simple anomaly detector to signal new epidemic waves. Our findings show that anomaly detector based on estimated infection-rates outperforms a conventional algorithm that relies solely on case-counts.

Safta, Cosmin [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-C↗
DOE OSTI2026

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advancing the central role of non-model biorepositories in predictive modeling of emerging pathogens

The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the insufficiency of a reactive approach to emerging zoonotic pathogens. With spillover increasing in frequency as environments change and the human footprint continues to grow, pandemic prevention will require predictive models that can identify (i) potential zoonoses with a high likelihood of emergence and (ii) environmental or other features that may trigger a shift in host, vector, or pathogen baselines associated with emergence and/or spillover. Artificial intelligence (AI), and particularly its machine learning and deep learning branches, holds enormous potential for detecting shifts in large-scale biodiversity and disease datasets (genomic, ecological, geospatial, etc.). Such algorithms can be trained to identify subtle patterns in large volumes of data to yield insights into complex phenomena for which we have limited knowledge of the true cause(s) or predictor(s), as is the case for emerging infectious diseases.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Broadly neutralizing humanized SARS-CoV-2 antibody binds to a conserved epitope on Spike and provides antiviral protection through inhalation-based delivery in non-human primates

The COVID-19 pandemic represents a global challenge that has impacted and is expected to continue to impact the lives and health of people across the world for the foreseeable future. The rollout of vaccines has provided highly anticipated relief, but effective therapeutics are required to further reduce the risk and severity of infections. Monoclonal antibodies have been shown to be effective as therapeutics for SARS-CoV-2, but as new variants of concern (VoC) continue to emerge, their utility and use have waned due to limited or no efficacy against these variants. Furthermore, cumbersome systemic administration limits easy and broad access to such drugs. As well, concentrations of systemically administered antibodies in the mucosal epithelium, a primary site of initial infection, are dependent on neonatal Fc receptor mediated transport and require high drug concentrations. To reduce the viral load more effectively in the lung, we developed an inhalable formulation of a SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibody binding to a conserved epitope on the Spike protein, ensuring pan-neutralizing properties. Administration of this antibody via a vibrating mesh nebulization device retained antibody integrity and resulted in effective distribution of the antibody in the upper and lower respiratory tract of non-human primates (NHP). In comparison with intravenous administration, significantly higher antibody concentrations can be obtained in the lung, resulting in highly effective reduction in viral load post SARS-CoV-2 challenge. This approach may reduce the barriers of access and uptake of antibody therapeutics in real-world clinical settings and provide a more effective blueprint for targeting existing and potentially emerging respiratory tract viruses.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

SARS-CoV-2 evolution balances conflicting roles of N protein phosphorylation

All lineages of SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, contain mutations between amino acids 199 and 205 in the nucleocapsid (N) protein that are associated with increased infectivity. The effects of these mutations have been difficult to determine because N protein contributes to both viral replication and viral particle assembly during infection. Here, we used single-cycle infection and virus-like particle assays to show that N protein phosphorylation has opposing effects on viral assembly and genome replication. Ancestral SARS-CoV-2 N protein is densely phosphorylated, leading to higher levels of genome replication but 10-fold lower particle assembly compared to evolved variants with low N protein phosphorylation, such as Delta (N:R203M), Iota (N:S202R), and B.1.2 (N:P199L). A new open reading frame encoding a truncated N protein called N*, which occurs in the B.1.1 lineage and subsequent lineages of the Alpha, Gamma, and Omicron variants, supports high levels of both assembly and replication. Our findings help explain the enhanced fitness of viral variants of concern and a potential avenue for continued viral selection.

Microbiology↗