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At least 883 records · Page 49

FATES crown damage simulation outputs 2022

This dataset contains outputs from the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) and accompanies the paper "Needham, J.F., Arellano, A., Davies, S.J., Fisher, R.A., Hammer, V., Knox, R., Mitre, D., Muller-Landau, H.C., Zuleta, D., Koven, C.D. Tree crown damage and its effects on forest carbon cycling in a tropical forest, 2022, Global Change Biology". Data are unprocessed netcdf file outputs from simulations that were run to test the effect of a new crown damage module in FATES. Specifically, this data package contains a sensitivity analysis to the carbon cushion parameter damage_Ccushion_ensemble_e1b5bd9_bf013ef_2021-09-02.h0.ensemble.sofar.nc, a sensitivity analysis to the root nitrogen stoichiometry parameter damage_Nstoich_ensemble_e1b5bd9_bf013ef_2021-09-02.h0.ensemble.sofar.nc, a sensitivity analysis to parameters controlling crown damage and recovery damage_recovery_ensemble_e1b5bd9_354f0b0_2021-09-02.h0.ensemble.sofar.nc, and a sensitivity analysis to the number of crown damage bins elm_fates_bci_*_damagebins.Eac53ccb80b-F8f994c29.2022-04-19.elm.h0.fullrun.nc. This data package also contains a high root nitrogen configuration of FATES, including both a control, and a crown damage simulation high_root_N_control_e1b5bd9_354f0b0_2021-09-02.clm2.h0.fullrun.nc and high_root_N_damage_e1b5bd9_354f0b0_2021-09-02.clm2.h0.fullrun.nc. There is an analogous low root nitrogen configuration of FATES, including a control, low_root_N_control_e1b5bd9_bf013ef_2021-09-02.clm2.h0.fullrun.nc a damage only simulation low_root_N_damageonly_e1b5bd9_bf013ef_2021-09-02.clm2.h0.fullrun.nc, a damage plus mortality simulation low_root_N_damage_mort_e1b5bd9_bf013ef_2021-09-02.clm2.h0.fullrun.nc, and a mortality only simulation low_root_N_mort_only_e1b5bd9_ef845c8_2021-09-02.clm2.h0.fullrun.nc. Finally, there is a two PFT simulation in which we test the effect of recovery on competitive dynamics, low_root_N_damage_two_pfts_stoichastic_e1b5bd9_bf013ef_2021-09-10.clm2.h0.fullrun.nc. These simulations test the effect of representing crown damage in FATES, compared with simulations that have an equivalent increase in mortality. Jupyter notebooks to analyse these files can be found at https://github.com/JessicaNeedham/Needham_etal_GCB_2022_FATES_crown_damage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tree damage and mortality measurements across seven ForestGEO plots in the tropics between Oct 2016 and Mar 2023

Annual records (raw data) on tree survival and structural completeness of 36,524 trees (2,467 species) collected across 29 censuses in seven tropical forests distributed across the Neotropics (Amacayacu, Colombia; Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panamá; Yasuní, Ecuador) and Asia (Fushan, Taiwan; Huai Kha Khaeng (HKK), Thailand; Khao Chong (KC), Thailand; Pasoh, Malaysia). This dataset was used to compare aboveground biomass loss via damage to living trees relative to total AGB loss (mortality + damage). Variable definitions: site: name of the ForestGEO plot stemID.ams: Unique ID for the stem in the annual mortality surveys (ams) treeID.ams: Unique ID for the tree in the ams date.full.census: date of the previous full census of the plot, format: YYYY-MM-DD dbh.full.census: diameter at the breast height (dbh in mm) measured during the previous full census of the plot home: height of measurement of dbh (in m) meanWD: species-level wood density (g cm-3) date.ams: date of the ams, format: YYYY-MM-DD status: survival status of the tree (A: alive; D: dead; NF: not found; "?": unknown) H_considering_damage: living length of the main axis in meters; provides an estimate of the amount of remaining living tissues along the main axis of the stem (e.g., the height of breakage or the height discounting wood decay) b: the remaining proportion of branch volume within the living length (b∈[0,1]). weights.ind: frequency of the [size class x species] bins within the forest plot relative to their frequency in the sample. Necessary to extrapolate estimates to the whole plot.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Persistent, “Mysterious” Seismoacoustic Signals Reported in Oklahoma State during 2019

Here, we report on the source of seismoacoustic pulses that were observed across the state of Oklahoma (OK) during summer of 2019, and the subject of national media coverage and speculation. Seismic network data collected across four U.S. states and interviews with witnesses to the pulse’s effect on residential structures demonstrate that they were triggered by routine ammunition disposal operations conducted by McAlester Army Ammunition Plant (McAAP). During these operations, conventional explosives destroy obsolete munitions stored in pits through a controlled sequence of electronically timed shots that occur over tens of minutes. Despite noise-abatement efforts that reduce coupling of acoustic energy with air, some lower frequency, subaudible (infrasonic) sound radiates from these shots as discrete pulses. We use nine months of blast log documents, seismic network records, analyst picks, and physical modeling to demonstrate that seismic stations as far as 640 km from McAAP sample these pulses, which record seasonal patterns in stratospheric and tropospheric winds, as well as the dynamic formation of waveguides and shadow zones. Digital short-term average to long-term average detectors that we augment with dynamic thresholds and time-binning operations identify these pulses with a fair probability, when compared with visual observations. Our analyses thereby provide estimates of observation rates for both partial and full sequences of these pulses, as well as single shots. We suggest that disposal operations can exploit existing, composite seismic networks to predict where residents are likely to witness blasting. Crucially, our data also show that dense seismic networks can record multiscale atmospheric processes in the absence of infrasound arrays.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Crowdsourcing Felt Reports Using the MyShake Smartphone App

MyShake is a free citizen science smartphone app that provides a range of features related to earthquakes. Features available globally include rapid postearthquake notifications, live maps of earthquake damage as reported by MyShake users, safety tips, and various educational features. The app also uses the accelerometer in the mobile device to detect earthquake shaking, and to record and submit waveforms to a central archive. In addition, MyShake delivers earthquake early warning alerts in California, Oregon, and Washington. Here, in this study, we compare the felt shaking reports provided by MyShake users in California with the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGSs) “Did You Feel It?” intensity reports. The MyShake app simply asks, “What strength of shaking did you feel?” and users report on a five-level scale. When the MyShake reports are averaged in spatial or time bins, we find strong correlation with the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale values reported by the USGS based on the DYFI surveys. The MyShake felt reports can therefore contribute to the creation of shaking intensity maps.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Rapid Analyses of Sparse Seismoacoustic Data Reveals the Timing and Size of the Accurate Energetic Systems Explosion

On 10 October 2025 an explosion occurred at a facility operated by Accurate Energetic Systems in Humphreys County, Tennessee. The incident resulted in 16 fatalities and created a debris field over several square kilometers. To address remaining questions about explosion timing and size, we collected about 20 seismic and 19 acoustic records of the blast from sensors up to hundreds of kilometers away. We then deployed 10 distinct physics-based, reduced order models (ROMs) that used validated geological structure and atmospheric conditions from the time of the event, along with observations of body- and surface-wave energy, as well as acoustic overpressure and phase duration. Each ROM predicted either timing, yield estimates, or both. We binned these estimates and their uncertainties according to each ROMs’ assumptions about confinement (aboveground, buried fully coupled, and buried partially coupled) and combined these estimates with other forensic data to conclude that the event occurred as a single, aboveground explosion on 10 December 2025 12:47:50.8 ±0.1 s with a yield equivalent to 11.8 [2.3,16.5] tons of Trinitrotoluene. Our estimates align with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives inventory reports of 11–13 tons. This multimethod approach demonstrates the use of remotely observed geophysical data to rapidly aid conventional forensic investigations of accidental explosions.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Power Plant Water Risk and Adaptive Measures Database

Project objective was to understand water-related constraints affecting conventional powerplant operations, specifically coal-fired power plants. Of concern were threats related to drought and flood affecting both water supply and ability of plant to discharge wastewater. Also of interest were adaptive measures taken to mitigate identified threats. This spreadsheet contains the responses provided by the power plant operators and owners. Data have been "sanitized" (e.g., random plant ID, binned location and generation capacity information) to ensure anonymity of individual power plants.

Adaptive Measures↗

Describing hadronization via histories and observables for Monte-Carlo event reweighting

We introduce a novel method for extracting a fragmentation model directly from experimental data without requiring an explicit parametric form, called Histories and Observables for Monte-Carlo Event Reweighting (HOMER), consisting of three steps: the training of a classifier between simulation and data, the inference of single fragmentation weights, and the calculation of the weight for the full hadronization chain. We illustrate the use of HOMER on a simplified hadronization problem, a q\bar{q} q q ‾ string fragmenting into pions, and extract a modified Lund string fragmentation function f(z) f ( z ) . We then demonstrate the use of HOMER on three types of experimental data: (i) binned distributions of high-level observables, (ii) unbinned event-by-event distributions of these observables, and (iii) full particle cloud information. After demonstrating that f(z) f ( z ) can be extracted from data (the inverse of hadronization), we also show that, at least in this limited setup, the fidelity of the extracted f(z) f ( z ) suffers only limited loss when moving from (i) to (ii) to (iii). Public code is available at https://gitlab.com/uchep/mlhad.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Higgs production via vector-boson fusion at the LHC

In this article, we summarise the recent experimental measurements and theoretical work on Higgs boson production via vector-boson fusion at the LHC. Along with this, we provide state-of-the-art predictions at fixed order as well as with parton-shower corrections within the Standard Model at 13.6 TeV. The results are presented in the form of multi-differential distributions as well as in the Simplified Template Cross Section bins. All materials and outputs of this study are available on public repositories. Finally, following findings in the literature, recommendations are made to estimate theoretical uncertainties related to parton-shower corrections.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Ultra-High-Sensitivity Aerosol Spectrometer (UHSAS) Instrument Handbook

The Ultra-High-Sensitivity Aerosol Spectrometer (UHSAS) (Figure 1) is an optical-scattering, laser-based aerosol particle spectrometer system for sizing particles in the 60 to 1000 nanometer (nm) range [1–3]. The instrument counts particles in up to 100 user-specified sizing bins. The instrument’s laser illuminates particles, which scatter light. The system captures the peak light signals that are generated. These signals are used for particle sizing, since the amount of light scattered correlates strongly with particle size.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

UNM High Energy Physics: Task B

The High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) observatory provides a unique window into the "TeV" gamma-ray universe. HAWC provides an important 1 TeV to 1000 TeV high-mass window for indirect searches for dark matter (DM) annihilation or decay. Additional fundamental physics studies benefit from HAWC's sensitivity to variable and/or transient sources. Such transient sources include: gamma ray bursts (GRBs), temporal studies of super massive black holes (specifically Markarian (Mrk) 421 and 501), and most recently searches for gamma-ray counterparts to PeV neutrino sources (observed by IceCube) and gravitational wave sources (observed by LIGO/Virgo). The UNM (Task B) research program includes leadership of the HAWC detector and of HAWC science. During this final reporting period the UNM group includes Professor John Matthews and graduate student Zhixiang Ren with the research goal focused on the development of analysis tools to enhance the sensitivity of HAWC to <1 TeV, gamma rays. This program began in 2016 with an initial focus to work to resolve known problems with the low energy analysis bins in the HAWC data. In 2017 this evolved to the development of new analysis tools to optimize current HAWC <1 TeV sensitivity as well as how HAWC (or a future HAWC-like detector) could be modified to be significantly more sensitive to <1 TeV gamma rays. In these studies Ren lead the development and evaluation of new HAWC <1 TeV analysis tools and Matthews lead the study of possible experimental modifications to HAWC to improve the <1 TeV sensitivity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Multi-Model and Multi-Scale Global Sensitivity Analysis for Identifying Controlling Processes of Complex Systems

An environmental model consists of multiple process level sub-models, and each sub-model represents a process that is key to the operation of the simulated system. Global sensitivity analysis methods have been widely used to identify important processes for system model development and improvement. The existing methods of global sensitivity analysis only consider parametric uncertainty, and are not capable of handling model uncertainty caused by multiple process models that arise from competing hypotheses about one or more processes. To address this problem, this project develops a new method to probe model output sensitivity to competing process models by integrating model averaging methods with variance-based global sensitivity analysis to address uncertainty in process models and parameters. The new method yields three process sensitivity indices. The first one is called first-order process sensitivity index, and it is derived as a single summary measure of relative process importance. Evaluating the index is computationally expensive, because it relies in a Monte Carlo scheme that requires thousands and even millions of model executions. To reduce computational cost, this project develops a computationally efficient, quasi Monte Carlo method, and this method is presented in Chapter 2 of this report with and a numerical example for demonstration. The numerical example shows that the results of the quasi Monte Carlo method are substantially close to those of the full Monte Carlo method, but the computational cost of the quasi Monte Carlo method is only 0.7% of that of the full Monte Carlo method. The second index is called total-effect process sensitivity index, and it measures interactions between different processes. Therefore, this sensitivity index includes the first-order process sensitivity index, and can be used to identify influential processes. On the other hand, the total-effect process sensitivity index can also be used to screen non-influential processes. This is demonstrated by two numerical examples using the Sobol-G* functions and groundwater flow models that consider recharge process, geological process, and snowmelt process. The numerical examples shows that the total-effect process sensitivity index is more informative than the first-order process sensitivity. The derivation of the process sensitivity index and the numerical examples are discussed in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 presents two computationally efficient methods for screening non-influential processes to exclude them from further investigation. The two methods are the multi-model difference-based sensitivity (MMDS) analysis method, which can be implemented using the Latin Hypercube Sampling. The second one is the implementation of MMDS method using a binning method. The numerical example for the Sobol-G* function indicates the two methods are capable of identifying non-influential models, and the numerical examples for the groundwater flow and reactive transport show that the two methods are effective for groundwater problems. However, it should be noted that the two methods are numerical approximations, and they can only be used for screening non-influential processes, not for ranking importance of system processes. All the sensitivity analysis methods are implemented by developing python codes, and the codes are in a software called SAMMPY: a python package for process sensitivity analysis under multiple models. The SAMMPY design and structure are discussed in Chapter 5, and the package is released to the public for free download.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ARM shortwave spectrometers to study the clear-cloud transition zone and mixing processes

The proposed research is a collaborative effort between NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center and the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. While the NASA team focused on analyzing ground-based hyper-spectral radiance observations to understand cloud edge properties and their connection to mixing processes, the Hebrew University team tackled the problem through cloud modeling activities. By approximating the shortwave spectra in the cloud-clear transition zone as a linear combination of purely clear and purely cloudy spectra we can characterize the variations of cloud optical thickness and cloud droplet effective radius in the transition zone. When applying this method to the measurements of a ground-based shortwave spectroradiometer at the ARM’s SGP site, representing continental conditions, and MAGIC field campaign between Log Angeles, California and Honolulu, Hawaii, representing maritime scenarios, we found that cloud optical depth consistently decreases in both cases, but droplet size decreases much more substantially for the continental regime, suggesting different mixing processes for the continental and maritime conditions. The investigation and measurements of radiation clouds were coupled with a unique cloud modeling. A novel spectral bin microphysics was developed and implemented to the System of Atmospheric Modeling (SAM). In order to resolve cloud transition zones with high spatial gradients of microphysical variables a unique high resolution (10 m) was used in simulations. The model calculates droplet size distributions in each grid point. The model output was transferred to the NASA/GSFC team for utilization in radiative calculations and testing of both radiative algorithm and model representation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

LANL-UW Collaboration on LC-QTOF Datasets (Annual Report)

Prior to the application of non-targeted chemometric techniques (i.e., Fisher ratio analysis), pre-processing steps must be carried out on the data collected using liquid chromatography-quadrupole time of flight (LC-QTOF) mass spectrometry. Data compression is the most important pre-processing step due to the vast number of high-resolution mass channels (m/z; 0.0001 Da) collected. Our first approach was to bin the mass spectral dimension to 0.01 Da; however, this approach was computationally expensive and did not preserve the high-resolution data.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Gen 3 Particle Pilot Plant (G3P3) -- High-Temperature Particle System for Concentrating Solar Power (Phases 1 and 2)

The U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Office initiated the Generation 3 Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) program to achieve higher operating temperatures (>700 °C) to enable next-generation CSP high-temperature power cycles such as the supercritical CO 2 (sCO2) Brayton Cycle. Three teams were selected to pursue high-temperature gas, liquid, and solid pathways for the heat-transfer media. Phases 1 and 2, which lasted from 2018 – 2020, consisted of design, modeling, and testing activities to further de-risk each of the technologies and develop a design for construction, commissioning, and operation of a pilot-scale facility in Phase 3 (2021 – 2024). This report summarizes the activities in Phases 1 and 2 for the solid-particle pathway led by Sandia National Laboratories. In Phases 1 and 2, Sandia successfully de-risked key elements of the proposed Gen 3 Particle Pilot Plant (G3P3) by improving the design, operation, and performance of key particle component technologies including the receiver, storage bins, particle-to-sCO2 heat exchanger, particle lift, and data acquisition and controls. Modeling and testing of critical components have led to optimized designs that meet desired performance metrics. Detailed drawings, piping and instrumentation diagrams, and process flow diagrams were generated for the integrated system, and structural analyses of the assembled tower structure were performed to demonstrate compliance with relevant codes and standards. Instrumentation and control systems of key subsystems were also demonstrated. Together with Bridgers & Paxton, Bohannan Huston, and Sandia Facilities, we have completed a 100% G3P3 tower design package with stamped engineering drawings suitable for construction bid in Phase 3.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Synthesis of observed and simulated rain microphysics to inform a new Bayesian statistical framework for microphysical parameterization in climate models (Final Scientific Report)

This project aimed to investigate a new approach to bulk microphysics schemes. We identified the need to move beyond the fixed structural assumptions and approximation of existing schemes. For example, most schemes assume some functional form for the rain drop size distribution (e.g. a gamma or exponential distribution). Most schemes then evolve some number of statistical moments of that distribution via various processes, such as evaporation, sedimentation, collision-coalescence, and collisional breakup. These microphysical processes, in turn, are typically some fixed functional form derived from either some other (more detailed) model, or using some single-particle rates that are then integrated over the size distribution. While these process rate functions may have some free parameters to adjust, in other cases doing so is impossible (e.g. when the process rates are analytical or piecewise solutions to some target function). Our goal was to build and test a scheme that assumed no size distribution form, and used a series of power laws as the basis for the process rates. Moments of the size distribution would be predicted, but no underlying size distribution would be specified. Any number or choice of size distribution moments could be used, and any number of power laws could be employed to model the process rates. Thus, our approach is flexible, and can seamlessly scale across levels of complexity, as demanded by the data. Bayesian inference then would provide the formalism to estimate the model parameters and structure, allowing for robust uncertainty quantification. We proposed testing this framework in idealized simulations using bin microphysical schemes as a data source. We also proposed using real data to inform our microphysics scheme, and also that we would integrate our scheme into WRF.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Design and Technoeconomic Analysis of High-Temperature Particle Conveyance Components for a 100 MW e Concentrating Solar Power Plant

Levelized costs of electricity (LCOE) approaching the U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Office 2030 goal of 0.05 $/kWh may be achievable using Brayton power cycles that use supercritical CO2 as the working fluid and flowing solid particles with temperatures >700° C as the heat transfer media. The handling and conveyance of bulk solid particles at these temperatures in an insulated environment is a critical technical challenge that must be solved for this approach to be used. A design study was conducted at the National Solar Thermal Test Facility (NSTTF) at Sandia National Laboratories in Albuquerque, NM, with the objective of identifying the technical readiness level, performance limits, capital and O&M costs, and expected thermal losses of particle handling and conveyance components in a particle-based CSP plant. Key findings indicated that chutes can be a low-cost option for particle handling but uncertainties in tower costs make it difficult to know whether they can be cost effective in areas above the receiver if tower heights must then be increased. Skips and high temperature particle conveyance technology are available for moving particles up to 640° C. This limits the use of mechanical conveyance above the heat exchanger and suggests vertical integration of the hot storage bin and heat exchanger to facilitate direct gravity fed handling of particles.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Assessment of Seasonal Energy Performance for Room Air Conditioners in Multiple Climates

This report provides a general approach for adopting a seasonal energy efficiency metric by examining the climate-specific temperature bin distribution for air conditioner use, the seasonal energy efficiency results according to International Standards Organization (ISO) 16358 by climate region, and the relationships in seasonal energy efficiency across regional metrics. This approach could make the seasonal efficiency metric values comparable with those from other countries with standards consistent with ISO 16358. Policy action and market transformation can be accelerated and effectively harmonized with other regional or international efforts by adopting a seasonal energy efficiency metric. The framework and methodology described in this report have been applied in the following publications: Shaffie et al. 2022, Park et al. 2021, Park et al. 2019, and UNEP 2019a.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Full 3D Kinetic Modeling and Quantification of Positive Streamer Evolution in an Azimuthally Swept Pin-to-Plane Wedge Geometry

Cathode-directed streamer evolution in near atmospheric air is modeled in 3D pin-to-plane geometries using a 3D kinetic Particle-In-Cell (PIC) code that simulates particle-particle collisions via the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method. Due to the computational challenges associated with a complete 360° volumetric domain, a practical alternative was achieved using a wedge domain and a range of azimuthal angles was explored (5°, 15°, 30°, and 45°) to study possible effects on the streamer growth and propagation due to the finite wedge angle. A DC voltage of 6 kV is administered to a hemispherical anode of radius 100 μm, with a planar cathode held at ground potential, generating an over-volted state with an electric field of 4 MV/m across a 1500 μm gap. The domain is seeded with an initial ion and electron density of 10 18 m -3 at 1 eV temperature confined to a spherical region of radius 100 μm centered at the tip of the anode. The air chemistry model [1] includes standard Townsend breakdown mechanisms (electron-neutral elastic, excitation, ionization, attachment, and detachment collision chemistry and secondary electron emission) as well as streamer mechanisms (photoionization and ion-neutral collisions) via tracking excited state neutrals which can then either quench via collisions or spontaneously emit a photon based on specific Einstein-A coefficients [2, 3]. In this work, positive streamer dynamics are formally quantified for each wedge angle in terms of electron velocity and density as temporal functions of coordinates r, Φ, and z. Applying a random plasma seed for each simulation, particles of interest are tracked with near femtosecond temporal resolution out to 1.4 ns and spatially binned. This process is repeated six times and results are averaged. Prior 2D studies have shown that the reduced electric field, E/n, can significantly impact streamer evolution [4]. We extend the analysis to 3D wedge geometries, to limit computational costs, and examine the wedge angle’s effect on streamer branching, propagation, and velocity. Results indicate that the smallest wedge angle that produced an acceptably converged solution is 30°. The potential effects that a mesh, when under-resolved with respect to the Debye length, can impart on streamer dynamics and numerical heating were not investigated, and we explicitly state here that the smallest cell size was approximately 10 times the minimum λ D in the streamer channel at late times. This constraint on cell size was the result of computational limitations on total mesh count.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗