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At least 883 records · Page 49

The SSRI Knowledge Base Tool: Current Tool Functionality Review and Planned Future Enhancements

NASA’s Small Satellite Reliability Initiative (SSRI), in conjunction with NASA’s Small Spacecraft Systems Virtual Institute (S3VI), has developed the SSRI Knowledge Base to improve mission confidence for small spacecraft. The SSRI Knowledge Base provides vetted, high-quality sources of information on elements that are key to successful small spacecraft missions. These resources include SSRI working group generated documents and presentations in addition to existing guides, publications, standards, software tools, websites, and books. The Knowledge Base is fully searchable, offers downloadable content when possible, and otherwise links to or references content directly from within the tool. All 58 of the planned topic pages that comprise the SSRI Knowledge Base have been recently completed and include over 450 unique resources that are now available for review. Over the past several months significant enhancements to the tool’s capabilities have been developed and implemented. These enhancements consist of the completed baseline content; development of an Application Programming Interface (API); improved user interfaces; scalable and searchable Best Practices and Lessons Learned (BPLL) lists with ratings; and custom website analytics. The SSRI Knowledge Base is a comprehensive and searchable online tool that consolidates and organizes resources, best practices, and lessons learned from previous small spacecraft missions sponsored by NASA, other government agencies, and academia. This free, publicly available tool is available to the entire SmallSat community at: NASA SSRI Knowledge Base | Explore. This presentation will discuss the motivation for and development of the SSRI Knowledge Base, demonstrate the existing tool, share how the smallsat community can get involved and outline plans for further enhancement development. The SSRI is a collaborative activity with broad participation from civil, Department of Defense, and both national and international commercial space systems providers and stakeholders. The S3VI is jointly sponsored by NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate and Science Mission Directorate.

Small Spacecraft↗

Mapping Temperate Forest Phenology Using Tower, UAV, and Ground-Based Sensors

Phenology is a distinct marker of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems. Accordingly, monitoring the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation phenology is important to understand the changing Earth system. A wide range of sensors have been used to monitor vegetation phenology, including digital cameras with different viewing geometries mounted on various types of platforms. Sensor perspective, view-angle, and resolution can potentially impact estimates of phenology. We compared three different methods of remotely sensing vegetation phenology—an unoccupied aerial vehicle (UAV)-based, downward-facing RGB camera, a below-canopy, upward-facing hemispherical camera with blue (B), green (G), and near-infrared (NIR) bands, and a tower-based RGB PhenoCam, positioned at an oblique angle to the canopy—to estimate spring phenological transition towards canopy closure in a mixed-species temperate forest in central Virginia, USA. Our study had two objectives: (1) to compare the above- and below-canopy inference of canopy greenness (using green chromatic coordinate and normalized difference vegetation index) and canopy structural attributes (leaf area and gap fraction) by matching below-canopy hemispherical photos with high spatial resolution (0.03 m) UAV imagery, to find the appropriate spatial coverage and resolution for comparison; (2) to compare how UAV, ground-based, and tower-based imagery performed in estimating the timing of the spring phenological transition. We found that a spatial buffer of 20 m radius for UAV imagery is most closely comparable to below-canopy imagery in this system. Sensors and platforms agree within +/− 5 days of when canopy greenness stabilizes from the spring phenophase into the growing season. We show that pairing UAV imagery with tower-based observation platforms and plot-based observations for phenological studies (e.g., long-term monitoring, existing research networks, and permanent plots) has the potential to scale plot-based forest structural measures via UAV imagery, constrain uncertainty estimates around phenophases, and more robustly assess site heterogeneity.

Jeff W. Atkins↗

The Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC2) v1.1: An Open-Source Ground-Based Lidar and Radar Instrument Simulator and Subcolumn Generator for Large-Scale Models

Climate models are essential for our comprehensive understanding of Earth's atmosphere and can provide critical insights on future changes decades ahead. Because of these critical roles, today's climate models are continuously being developed and evaluated using constraining observations and measurements obtained by satellites, airborne, and ground-based instruments. Instrument simulators can provide a bridge between the measured or retrieved quantities and their sampling in models and field observations while considering instrument sensitivity limitations. Here we present the Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC2), an open-source ground-based lidar and radar instrument simulator and subcolumn generator, specifically designed for large-scale models, in particular climate models, but also applicable to high-resolution model output. EMC2 provides a flexible framework enabling direct comparison of model output with ground-based observations, including generation of subcolumns that may statistically represent finer model spatial resolutions. In addition, EMC2 emulates ground-based (and air- or space-borne) measurements while remaining faithful to large-scale models' physical assumptions implemented in their cloud or radiation schemes. The simulator uses either single particle or bulk particle size distribution lookup tables, depending on the selected scheme approach, to perform the forward calculations. To facilitate model evaluation, EMC2 also includes three hydrometeor classification methods, namely, radar- and sounding-based cloud and precipitation detection and classification, lidar-based phase classification, and a Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package (COSP) lidar simulator emulator. The software is written in Python, is easy to use, and can be straightforwardly customized for different models, radars, and lidars. Following the description of the logic, functionality, features, and software structure of EMC2, we present a case study of highly supercooled mixed-phase cloud based on measurements from the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE). We compare observations with the application of EMC2 to outputs from four configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model (ModelE3) in single-column model (SCM) mode and from a large-eddy simulation (LES) model. We show that two of the four ModelE3 configurations can form and maintain highly supercooled precipitating cloud for several hours, consistent with observations and LES. While our focus is on one of these ModelE3 configurations, which performed slightly better in this case study, both of these configurations and the LES results post-processed with EMC2 generally provide reasonable agreement with observed lidar and radar variables. As briefly demonstrated here, EMC2 can provide a lightweight and flexible framework for comparing the results of both large-scale and high-resolution models directly with observations, with relatively little overhead and multiple options for achieving consistency with model microphysical or radiation scheme physics.

Earth Model Column Collaboratory↗

The SSRI Knowledge Base Tool: Current Tool Functionality Review and Planned Future Enhancements

NASA’s Small Satellite Reliability Initiative (SSRI), in conjunction with NASA’s Small Spacecraft Systems Virtual Institute (S3VI), has developed the SSRI Knowledge Base to improve mission confidence for small spacecraft. The SSRI Knowledge Base provides vetted, high-quality sources of information on elements that are key to successful small spacecraft missions. These resources include SSRI working group generated documents and presentations in addition to existing guides, publications, standards, software tools, websites, and books. The Knowledge Base is fully searchable, offers downloadable content when possible, and otherwise links to or references content directly from within the tool. All 58 of the planned topic pages that comprise the SSRI Knowledge Base have been recently completed and include over 450 unique resources that are now available for review. Over the past several months significant enhancements to the tool’s capabilities have been developed and implemented. These enhancements consist of the completed baseline content; development of an Application Programming Interface (API); improved user interfaces; scalable and searchable Best Practices and Lessons Learned (BPLL) lists with ratings; and custom website analytics. The SSRI Knowledge Base is a comprehensive and searchable online tool that consolidates and organizes resources, best practices, and lessons learned from previous small spacecraft missions sponsored by NASA, other government agencies, and academia. This free, publicly available tool is available to the entire SmallSat community at: NASA SSRI Knowledge Base | Explore. This presentation will discuss the motivation for and development of the SSRI Knowledge Base, demonstrate the existing tool, share how the smallsat community can get involved and outline plans for further enhancement development. The SSRI is a collaborative activity with broad participation from civil, Department of Defense, and both national and international commercial space systems providers and stakeholders. The S3VI is jointly sponsored by NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate and Science Mission Directorate.

Small Spacecraft↗

Small Satellite Reliability Initiative (SSRI) Knowledge Base Tool: Update and Future Direction

NASA’s Small Satellite Reliability Initiative (SSRI), in conjunction with NASA’s Small Spacecraft Systems Virtual Institute (S3VI), has developed the SSRI Knowledge Base to improve mission confidence for small spacecraft. The SSRI Knowledge Base is a comprehensive and searchable online tool that consolidates and organizes resources, best practices, and lessons learned from previous small satellite missions sponsored by NASA, other government agencies, and academia. This free, publicly available tool is available to the entire SmallSat community at: NASA SSRI Knowledge Base | Explore. The SSRI Knowledge Base provides vetted, high-quality sources of information on elements that are key to successful small satellite missions. These resources include SSRI working group generated documents and presentations in addition to existing guides, publications, standards, software tools, websites, and books. The Knowledge Base is fully searchable, offers downloadable content when possible, and otherwise links to or references content directly from within the tool. All 58 of the planned topic pages that comprise the SSRI Knowledge Base have been recently completed and include over 450 unique resources that are now available for review. Over the past several months significant enhancements to the tool’s capabilities have been developed and implemented. These enhancements consist of the completed baseline content; development of an Application Programming Interface (API); improved user interfaces; scalable and searchable Best Practices and Lessons Learned (BPLL) lists with ratings; and custom website analytics. This presentation and paper will discuss the motivation for and development of the SSRI Knowledge Base, demonstrate the existing tool, and outline plans for further development. The SSRI is a collaborative activity with broad participation from civil, Department of Defense, and both national and international commercial space systems providers and stakeholders. The S3VI is jointly sponsored by NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate and Science Mission Directorate.

Small Spacecraft↗

Small Satellite Reliability Initiative (SSRI) Knowledge Base Tool: Use Case Review and Future Functionality and Content Direction

NASA’s Small Satellite Reliability Initiative (SSRI), in conjunction with NASA’s Small Spacecraft Systems Virtual Institute (S3VI), has developed the SSRI Knowledge Base to improve mission confidence for small spacecraft. The SSRI Knowledge Base is a comprehensive and searchable online tool that consolidates and organizes resources, best practices, and lessons learned from previous small satellite missions sponsored by NASA, other government agencies, and academia. This free, publicly available tool is available to the entire SmallSat community at: NASA SSRI Knowledge Base | Explore. The SSRI Knowledge Base provides vetted, high-quality sources of information on elements that are key to successful small satellite missions. These resources include SSRI working group generated documents and presentations in addition to existing guides, publications, standards, software tools, websites, and books. The Knowledge Base is fully searchable, offers downloadable content when possible, and otherwise links to or references content directly from within the tool. All 58 of the planned topic pages that comprise the SSRI Knowledge Base have been recently completed and include over 450 unique resources that are now available for review. Over the past several months significant enhancements to the tool’s capabilities have been developed and implemented. These enhancements consist of the completed baseline content; development of an Application Programming Interface (API); improved user interfaces; scalable and searchable Best Practices and Lessons Learned (BPLL) lists with ratings; and custom website analytics. This presentation and paper will discuss the motivation for and development of the SSRI Knowledge Base, review of potential use case(s), and outline plans for further development and content generation. The SSRI is a collaborative activity with broad participation from civil, Department of Defense, and both national and international commercial space systems providers and stakeholders. The S3VI is jointly sponsored by NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate and Science Mission Directorate.

Small Spacecraft↗

Artemis I Space Launch System Base Heat Shield Thermal Protection System Performance

The Space Launch System (SLS) Core Stage base heat shield experienced the highest external heating environments on the entire launch vehicle during Artemis I ascent flight. This result was consistent with design predictions. The base heat shield experiences P50 cork combustion dynamics at low altitudes, plume-induced recirculation at moderate altitudes and then in-space base flow physics out to Main Engine Cut-Off (MECO). The base heat shield thermal protection system (TPS) is composed of a P50 cork ablator which is bonded to a substrate. The heat shield protects the gimbal actuation system, RS-25 turbomachinery systems and other aft section sensitive components during ascent. This paper estimates the base heat shield TPS performance from Artemis I using flight data from the NASA Langley Research Center’s Scientifically Calibrated In-Flight Imagery (SCIFLI) Airborne Multispectral Imager (SAMI), development flight instrumentation (DFI) and other TPS recession flight measurements. Predictions from computational and ground test-derived engineering ablation models and observations are also applied. Since no base heat shield substrate thermocouple data were obtained for Artemis I, an estimate of the TPS performance data is derived here. This data assesses thermal margin of the SLS Core Stage base heat shield and best informs the Artemis II Crewed mission to the moon.

aerothermodynamics↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: optimized $w$CDM simulation-based inference with weak lensing map-level hybrid statistics

We present cosmological constraints from the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) weak lensing data using hierarchical hybrid statistics within a Bayesian simulation-based inference framework that is based on the Gower Street simulations. To maximize the precision of the inference, we have developed a new, information-theory based, data compression of the weak lensing maps to just seven highly informative summary statistics. The hybrid scheme exploits the high information content of the power spectrum, compressing both the power spectrum and neural-based summaries that are designed to extract further information. Our simulation-based approach enables principled forward modelling of all major sources of systematic uncertainty and survey properties into realistic mock observations, including the survey mask, photometric redshift uncertainties, intrinsic galaxy alignments, multiplicative shear calibration bias, source galaxy clustering, non-Gaussian shape noise, and non-linear structure formation. The summary statistics are then used in a Bayesian simulation-based inference pipeline. The inference is validated through coverage tests and checks for robustness against baryonic feedback. Assuming a $w$CDM cosmology, our analysis yields $S_8 = 0.808 \pm 0.017$, $Ω_{\rm m} = 0.325 \pm 0.024$, and $w < -0.766$ (marginalized posterior 68 per cent credible intervals). This rigorous combination of information theory, physics- and neural network-based extreme data compression, and principled Bayesian analysis improves the figure of merit for $(Ω_{\rm m}, S_8, w)$ by 60 per cent over the previous state-of-the-art, and by almost a factor of 3 over two-point analyses of the same data. They are the most precise joint constraints on $(Ω_{\rm m}, S_8, w)$ from weak gravitational lensing data alone of any survey to date. We intend to apply this analysis to the more recent DES Y6 data.

Williamson, J. [University Coll. London]↗

Arctic Cloud‐Base Ice Precipitation Properties Retrieved Using Bayesian Inference

Abstract Cloud‐climate feedbacks are still the greatest source of uncertainty in current climate projections. Arctic clouds, which are predominantly stratiform and supercooled, often long‐lived, and nearly continuously precipitate ice particles, contribute roughly 10% of the uncertainty attributed to the global cloud feedback. This Arctic cloud uncertainty is driven by incomplete observational and theoretical knowledge required to estimate and explain the state and active processes occurring in those clouds. A focus on ice precipitation properties at Arctic cloud base rather than the surface deconfounds the product of cloud condensate sink processes from the influence of the atmospheric thermodynamic state below cloud base, rendering cloud‐base properties a more appealing target for inference and evaluation of model simulations. Here I describe an inverse model for the estimation of cloud base ice precipitation properties over Utqiagvik, North Slope of Alaska, using the synthesis of ground‐based radar and lidar measurements. By leveraging a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm as the core of the inverse model, a wide range of particle size distributions are sampled, and different combinations of ice habit models are examined, both of which are typically fixed in other retrieval methods. Results show intriguing links between different cloud base thermodynamic and ice precipitation properties. Apparent ice number concentration enhancements at temperatures of −5 and −15°C suggest possible secondary ice production (SIP). The analysis alludes to an overestimation of SIP occurrence and intensity, especially in studies relying only on radar or lidar measurements. Finally, reflectivity‐dependent ice precipitation rate and ice water content parameterizations are presented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wavelet-based local mesh refinement for rainfall–runoff simulations

A wavelet-based local mesh refinement (wLMR) strategy is designed to generate multiresolution and unstructured triangular meshes from real digital elevation model (DEM) data for efficient hydrological simulations at the catchment scale. The wLMR strategy is studied considering slope- and curvature-based refinement criteria to analyze DEM inputs: the slope-based criterion uses bed elevation data as input to the wLMR strategy, whereas the curvature-based criterion feeds the bed slope data into it. The performance of the wLMR meshes generated by these two criteria is compared for hydrological simulations; first, using three analytical tests with the systematic variation in topography types and then by reproducing laboratory- and real-scale case studies. The bed elevation on the wLMR meshes and their simulation results are compared relative to those achieved on the finest uniform mesh. Repeated analytical tests show that the slope- and curvature-based criteria are equally effective with the wLMR strategy, and that it is easier to decide which criterion to take in relation to the (regular) shape of the topography. For the realistic case studies: (i) slope analysis provides a better metric to assess the correlation of a wLMR mesh to the fine uniform mesh and (ii) both criteria predict outlet hydrographs with a close predictive accuracy to that on the uniform mesh, but the curvature-based criterion is found to slightly better capture the channeling patterns of real DEM data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

TBAA20: Task-Based Algorithms and Applications

The new challenges posed by Exascale system architectures have resulted in difficulty achieving a desired scalability using traditional distributed ­memory runtimes. Task­-based programming models show promise in addressing these challenges, providing application developers with a productive and performant approach to programming on next generation systems. Empirical studies show that task-based models can overcome load ­balancing issues that are inherent to traditional distributed ­memory runtimes, and that task-­based runtimes perform comparably to those systems when balanced. This panel is designed to explore the advantages of task-­based programming models on modern and future HPC systems from an industry, university, and national lab perspective. It aims at gathering application experts and proponents of these models to present concrete and practical examples of using task­-based runtimes to overcome the challenges posed by Exascale system architectures. This report describes the objectives, activities, and outcomes of the panel TBAA: Task­-Based Algorithms and Applications which was held at the International Conference for High Performance Computing, Networking, Storage, and Analysis (SC 20) on November 18, 2020.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Common Habitat Base Camp for Moon and Mars Surface Operations

The Common Habitat uses the SLS Core Stage Liquid Oxygen tank as the primary structure (similar to Skylab) and has an internal architecture compatible with microgravity, lunar gravity, and Mars gravity, such that identical versions of the same design can be used in all three environments. Applying the large dimensions and eight-person crew size of the Common Habitat to a surface architecture leads to a unique base camp configuration. A notional such base camp is described in this analysis. The base camp includes four distributed zones – habitation, landing, power, and resource production. The base camp is deployed and assembled in three phases: site preparation, element staging, and habitat delivery, each of which are briefly discussed. Crew arrival and departure is discussed, including variations caused by orbital mechanics-induced differences between the Moon and Mars base camps. Trash and logistics operations are described. Finally, crew operations within the base camp are described.

Lunar Outpost↗

Temperature-Dependent Mechanical Properties of Ni-Based Concentrated Alloys: Insights from First-Principles Calculations

The present work focuses on predicting temperature-dependent mechanical properties of Ni-based concentrated alloys Ni 18 Cr 10 Co 10 Fe 6 M 4 (abbreviated by X 44 M 4 , with M = Al, V, Mn, Fe, Nb, Mo, and W) using density functional theory (DFT). These predictions are based on shear (plastic) and elastic deformations, utilizing the special quasirandom structure (SQS), the phonon-based quasiharmonic approach (QHA), and the quasistatic approach. The resulting properties include coefficient of thermal expansion via QHA, ideal shear strength (τ IS ), and stable and unstable stacking fault energies (γ SF and γ US ) through pure alias shear deformation, and elastic constants (c ij ), bulk modulus (B 0 ), and shear modules (G 0 ) via elastic deformation. Notably, predicting accurate γ SF is challenging due to uncertainties that can exceed the γ SF values. τ IS and γ US exhibit a strong linear relationship, enabling the accurate prediction of γ US based on the precisely determined τ IS . All mechanical properties of X 44 M 4 decrease with increasing temperature, except for some γ SF cases such as X 44 M 4 with M = V, Mn, Fe, Mo, and W. Among the X 44 M 4 alloys, X 44 Nb 4 exhibits the lowest τ IS , γ US , and G 0 values, and the highest B 0 /G 0 ratio, while X 44 Mn 4 has the lowest B 0 and B 0 /G 0 ratio. We found that volume is a crucial descriptor for understanding and modeling mechanical properties (except B0 and maybe also γ SF ) affected by alloying elements and temperature. Ni-based dilute alloys (e.g., Ni 11 M 1 and Ni 31 M 1 ) and concentrated alloys (e.g., X 44 M 4 ) show similar trends in mechanical properties influenced by alloying elements and temperature, simplifying the analysis and design of Ni-based alloys.

Elastic properties↗

Energy performance evaluation of the ASHRAE Guideline 36 control and reinforcement learning–based control using field measurements

This study evaluates the energy performance of ASHRAE Guideline 36–compliant control (ASHRAE 36 control) and reinforcement learning (RL)–based control through experimental field tests and a simulation study. Three field tests were conducted at Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s commercial building test facility in Oak Ridge, Tennessee: a baseline with a baseline conventional control, a test with ASHRAE 36 control, and a test with RL-based control. The selected ASHRAE 36 controls were trim and respond control, as well as variable air volume (VAV) box control. We compared the measured supply air temperature of the rooftop unit, VAV box supply air temperature, and VAV box supply airflow rate across the three test cases. The field data indicated that ASHRAE 36 controls operated as specified by ASHRAE Guideline 36. Based on these data, ASHRAE 36 control achieved a 45 % reduction in hourly averaged HVAC energy consumption compared with the baseline, and RL-based control achieved a 66 % reduction. These potential annual energy savings were confirmed using a calibrated whole-building energy model. Compared with the baseline, ASHRAE 36 control reduced HVAC energy consumption by 42 %, and RL-based control achieved a 54 % reduction. Furthermore, RL-based control reduced total HVAC energy consumption by 21 % more than ASHRAE 36 control.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Time-frequency based cyber security defense of wide-area control system for fast frequency reserve

Global power systems are transiting from conventional fossil fuel energy to renewable energies due to their environmental benefits. The increasing penetration of renewable energies presents challenges for power system operation. The efficiency and sufficiency of responsive reserves have become increasingly important for power systems with a high proportion of renewable energies. The Fast Frequency Reserve (FFR), especially the Wide-area Monitoring System (WAMS)-based FFR, is a promising and effective solution to secure and enhance the stability of power systems. However, cyber security has become a new challenge for the WAMS-based FFR system. Cyber attacks on the FFR control system may threaten the safety of power system operation due to the rapid power controllability requirement of FFR. Therefore, to address this problem, a time-frequency based cyber security defense framework is proposed to detect the cyber spoofing of synchrophasor data in WAMS-based FFR control systems. This paper first introduces the Continuous Wavelet Transforms (CWTs) to decompose spoofing signals. Then, the Dual-frequency Scale Convolutional Neural Networks (DSCNN) is proposed to identify the time-frequency domains matrix from two frequency scales. Integrating CWTs and DSCNN, an identification framework called CWTs-DSCNN is further proposed to detect the spoofing attacks in the WAMS-based FFR system. Multiple experiments using the actual data from FNET/GridEye are performed to verify the effectiveness of the framework in securing WAMS-based FFR systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Progress and Prospective of Nitrogen-Based Alternative Fuels

Alternative fuels are essential to enable the transition to a sustainable and environmentally friendly energy supply. Synthetic fuels derived from renewable energies can act as energy storage media, thus mitigating the effects of fossil fuels on environment and health. Their economic viability, environmental impact, and compatibility with current infrastructure and technologies are fuel and power source specific. Nitrogen-based fuels pose one possible synthetic fuel pathway. In this paper, we discuss the progress and current research on utilization of nitrogen-based fuels in power applications, covering the complete fuel cycle. We cover the production, distribution, and storage of nitrogen-based fuels. We assess much of the existing literature on the reactions involved in the ammonia to nitrogen atom pathway in nitrogen-based fuel combustion. Furthermore, we discuss nitrogen-based fuel applications ranging from combustion engines to gas turbines, as well as their exploitation by suggested end-uses. Thereby, we evaluate the potential opportunities and challenges of expanding the role of nitrogen-based molecules in the energy sector, outlining their use as energy carriers in relevant fields.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Limits to forests-based mitigation in integrated assessment modelling: global potentials and impacts under constraining factors

Forests-based measures such as afforestation/reforestation (A/R) and reducing deforestation (RDF) are considered promising options to mitigate climate change, yet their mitigation potentials are limited by economic and biophysical factors that are largely uncertain. The range of mitigation potential estimates from integrated assessment models raises concerns about the capacity of land systems to provide realistic, cost-effective and permanent land-based mitigation. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to quantify the economic mitigation potential of forests-based measures by simulating a climate policy including a tax on greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses. In addition, we assess how constraining unused arable land (UAL) availability, forestland expansion rates, and global bioenergy demand may influence the forests-based mitigation potential by simulating scenarios with alternative combinations of constraints. Results show that the average forests-based mitigation potential in 2020–2050 increases from 738 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 86 Mha in the fully constrained scenario to 1394 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 146 Mha when all constraints are relaxed. Regional potentials in terms of A/R and RDF differ strongly between scenarios: unconstrained forest expansion rates mostly increase A/R potentials in northern regions (e.g., +120 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in North America); while unconstrained UAL conversion and low bioenergy demand mostly increase RDF potentials in tropical regions (e.g., +76 and +68 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in Southeast Asia, respectively). This study shows that forests-based mitigation is limited by many factors that constrain the rates of land use change across regions. These factors, often overlooked in modelling exercises, should be carefully addressed for understanding the role of forests in global climate mitigation and defining pledges towards the Paris Agreement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vulnerability Assessments for Power-Electronics-Based Smart Grids

Here, in this paper, a novel method is proposed to evaluate the cyber security of the power-electronics-based smart grids (PESG). The proposed method considers the performance and stability of both the individual inverter and the grid. To our knowledge, this is a first attempt to evaluate the performance and stability of PESG due to cyber attacks. We first develop impedance-based modeling and cyber-attack modeling for PESG. Then we propose innovative two security criteria to evaluate the security of PESG, including stability-based and metrics-based. For metrics-based criteria, we propose to use both total harmonic distortion (THD) and space phasor model (SPM) to evaluate the inverter performance. The simulation results with a two-inverter-based power grid verify the validity and accuracy of the proposed security evaluation method. Results have shown that the performance and stability of PESG are significantly affected by cyber attacks, and thus there is indeed a need to further study cyber security issues of PESG.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗