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At least 883 records · Page 49

Development and Validation of Physics-Based Sub-Models of High-Pressure Supercritical Fuel Injection at Diesel Conditions Insert

The project sought to develop and validate accurate, physics-based, numerical submodels and implement them in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software codes to enable accurate predictions of diesel sprays at pressures higher than the current systems. The combined experimental-computational effort has four main objectives: (1) acquire spatially and temporally resolved scalar measurements of fuel-oxidizer mixing in the near field of the fuel jet, (2) develop software modules to calculate thermo-physical properties of diesel surrogates and their mixtures with oxidizer of interest in real-gas operating regime, (3) integrate the real-fluid model into a commercial and an open-source CFD code to simulate fuel-air mixing in high-pressure diesel sprays, and (4) assess the robustness, accuracy, and uncertainty of the integrated CFD solvers in computing diesel sprays. Project accomplishments are consistent with the original goals of the project. Although we acquired spatially and temporally resolved scalar measurements, they were limited to refractive index difference and not to thermodynamic properties such as temperature and equivalence ratio. However, we successfully developed the theoretical background needed to acquire such measurements at diesel conditions and demonstrated the capability of the RSD for scalar measurements in a canonical turbulent jet flow replicating features of the diesel jet. Additional work will be needed to implement these procedures at high-pressure, high-temperature engine-like conditions of the CPFR. Mainly, we did not anticipate the need to find the liquid boundary and its statistical features or the state relationships between refractive index and thermodynamic properties, assuming the widely known Dale-Gladstone equation would suffice. Still, efforts devoted to these tasks were essential to fulfil the goals of the project and serves as the foundation on which many of the conclusions and key contributions of this project are based. Further assessment and application of the developed CFD codes is recommended to fully realize the benefits of this research.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Robust Machine Learning

UQ4ML is a code repository for a set of tools for the development of robust machine learning methods, uncertainty quantification and explainability of machine learning methods. The goal of these tools is to develop more robust and statistically rigorous machine learning methods for scientific applications. These tools are developed in Python, a high-level programming language that takes advantage of the Python ecosystem of high-quality open-source packages for machine learning.

Oyen, Diane↗

Beyond Like-for-Like: A User-centered Approach to Modernizing Legacy Applications

When modernizing a legacy application, it is easy to fall back on a like-for-like replica with new tools and updated design stylings, but this is an opportunity to explore making a more intuitive application that supports user tasks and efficiency. Rather than having a blank canvas-unburdened by legacy tech debt-to create a new application, you are working with an existing application that is integral to accelerator operations and one that expert users are already familiar with. Due to this, you might assume people will prefer the like-for-like, but you could be carrying forward the pain points, processes that are inefficient, and ultimately wind up with an application that no one wants to use because it doesn't solve existing problems. Getting users involved can make all the difference in your approach to modernizing a legacy application that caters to both newer and expert users. It also can bridge the gap between like-for-like and introducing new GUI design. Having a legacy application doesn't have to make the modernized one difficult to develop, as the existing application is a tool in how you move forward with the new application. It provides insight into areas that an application with a clean slate doesn't give you.

Polzin, M. [Fermilab]↗

Mid Infra-Red Laser Sensor for Continuous Sulfur Trioxide Monitoring to Improve Coal-Fired Power Plant Performance during Flexible Operations

During the course of this project, we performed exhaustive research and development of SO3/H2SO4 sensing technology for coal-fired power plant applications (Figure 1). The development culminated in a successful field campaign of a prototype continuous real-time H2SO4 monitor at a coal-fired power plant (TRL 6) accomplishing the primary goal of the project. The developed sensors utilize tunable laser absorption spectroscopy (TLAS) operating in the mid-infrared (Mid-IR) wavelength region, which is the so-called “molecular fingerprint” region. Systems operating in the Mid-IR have orders of magnitude more sensitivity than systems operating at shorter wavelengths, such as near-infrared (NIR). However, NIR systems are more widespread due to more mature supporting technology (e.g., fiber optics, optical components, etc.). In this project, we not only produced a specific Mid-IR sensor, we also advanced Mid-IR sensor technology in general through the development and demonstration of such supporting technology. In this project, we also developed proprietary broad tuning lasers enabling the ability to effectively measure SO3, H2SO4, H2O, and SO2. Different molecular species have unique spectral signatures that can be probed with lasers operating at different wavelengths. Standard TLAS uses relatively narrow wavelength tuning distributed feedback (DFB) lasers, which can typically only target a single species with narrow features, and are not appropriate for species with broad features, such as SO3 or H2SO4. In contrast, by developing unique, broad-tuning laser technology, we were able to measure these species, as well as SO2 and H2O simultaneously. Furthermore, to enable real-time analysis at a power plant, we modified a commercially available heated gas cell to operate in the Mid-IR wavelength range and fiber coupled the lasers to enable remote delivery of the beams. To generate reference data (library spectra), our collaborators at the University of California Irvine (UCI) developed a catalytic SO3 generation facility. It is worth mentioning that representative H2SO4 and SO3 Mid-IR spectra are not a part of any publicly available database and the data generated under this project is a valuable resource in and of itself. In addition, based on the UCI study we determined that detection of SO3 is complicated by the very strong SO2 absorption. For that reason, we concentrated on H2SO4 detection. Since SO3 and H2SO4 exist in a flue gas in a state of equilibrium, which depends on temperature and humidity, by measuring water concentration and controlling the temperature of the gas cell, we developed an approach to determine SO3 concentration from the H2SO4 measurement. During the development phase of the project, we performed three testing campaigns at our collaborator’s FERCo flue gas facility with conditions representative of the coal-fired power plant (~ 40ppm SO3, 1700ppm to 2800 ppm SO2, 10% water) with the exception of particulate matter. After three test campaigns at FERCo we performed field testing at Harrison Power Station. The final system was mounted on a duct and measured H2SO4, SO2 and water. The tests were highly successful with a demonstrated real-time H2SO4 precision of 1 ppm with a 1 second update. Our collaborators at EPRI conducted an industry survey and determined that there is a very high interest for the SO3/H2SO4 monitoring in the power generation industry as well as in heavy industries in general. Furthermore, work performed by OptoKnowledge beyond the scope of this project under a synergistic DOE SBIR determined another approach to SO3 detection. We applied for Phase II on this SBIR for development a of versatile SO3/H2SO4 sensor but were not selected. We are currently looking for another opportunity to leverage all the technological advancements produced by this project including but not limited to the flue gas facility at UCI, the hardware and software developed, and relationships with FERCo, EPRI CEMTEK, and Harrison Station.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Completion Effects on Diagnosing Multistage Facture Treatments with Distributed Temperature Sensing

Summary Distributed temperature sensing (DTS) is a valuable tool to diagnose multistage hydraulic fracture treatments. When a stage interval is shut in, the clusters that take more fluid during pumping warm up more slowly. Therefore, the fluid volume injected into each cluster can be quantitatively interpreted by numerical inversion of the warm-back temperature behavior. This general concept assumes that the different warm-back behavior is controlled by only the injected fluid volume; however, recent observations of DTS data indicate that completion configurations significantly influence the warm-back behavior. This paper investigates the completion effects on the DTS interpretation. In ideal conditions, when a stage is fractured, the upstream stage intervals should show an almost uniform temperature that is close to the injected fluid temperature. This is due to the high fluid velocity of injected fluid in the wellbore, and the upstream intervals have not been perforated (noncommunicating intervals), so the only heat transfer is heat conduction between the wellbore fluid and the surrounding reservoir. But the field DTS data show considerably irregular variations in temperature along the upstream stage intervals. These variations are caused by the completion effects. The nonuniform temperature profile is caused by different heat transfer behavior induced by completion hardware along the production casing string, such as joints, clamps, and blast protectors, and by the sensing cable location in the cement, as well as the cement quality. Because the varying heat transfer behavior impacts the warm-back behavior as well as the temperature profile, the completion effects need to be considered in DTS interpretation. A method of DTS interpretation considering the completion effects to diagnose multistage fracture treatments was developed. Because the heat transfer between a wellbore and a reservoir depends on the overall heat transfer coefficient describing heat conduction through the completion in a forward model, this parameter needs to be tuned all along the wellbore. To calibrate the completion effect, the temperature inversion is conducted using the temperature measured at a stage interval that is upstream of a stage interval currently being treated. Because the interpreted stage interval is not perforated at that time, the thermal behavior at the noncommunicating interval is governed by only the heat conduction through the completion environment. Once the effective values of the overall heat transfer coefficient are estimated along the interpreted stage interval, they can be assumed to be constant physical parameters. Then, the fluid volume distribution is interpreted by using the effective overall heat transfer coefficient profile along each interval. This study provides a field application of the developed interpretation method. The new interpretation method provides more accurate diagnosis of fracture treatments by DTS interpretation.

Engineering↗

Damage progression and failure of SiC/SiC composite tubes under hard-contact radial expansion

The response of silicon carbide (SiC) fiber-reinforced SiC matrix (SiC/SiC) composite cladding to mechanical interaction with fissile fuel is a knowledge gap that must be overcome to design and assess SiC-based cladding systems for advanced nuclear applications. This study developed the relevant mechanical testing capability and identified the failure behavior and the critical microstructural features and processing defects. Sections of SiC composite tube were subjected to a modified expansion-due-to-compression (EDC) test in an X-ray computed tomography microscope: a polyurethane plug pressed surrogate Al 2 O 3 into the inner walls of the SiC/SiC composite tubes to achieve hard contact. A pure EDC test with just a polyurethane plug was also performed as a reference. Through the use of displacement fields, digital volume correlation revealed inhomogeneous deformation fields in the tubes, even for pure EDC, which was related to the inherent defects in the structure. Deep learning–aided segmentation and systematic data analysis revealed that the presence of inhomogeneous deformation applied by the hard contact was exaggerated by the presence of inner surface imperfections left behind from the matrix densification process. In conclusion, the findings provide insights into the applications, highlighting the necessity for improvements in inner surface roughness and the incorporation of localized contacts in pellet–cladding mechanical interaction computational models.

Composites↗

Scalable synthesis of nanoporous silicon microparticles for highly cyclable lithium-ion batteries

Nanoporous silicon is a promising anode material for high energy density batteries due to its high cycling stability and high tap density compared to other nanostructured anode materials. However, the high cost of synthesis and low yield of nanoporous silicon limit its practical application. Here, we develop a scalable, low-cost top-down process of controlled oxidation of Mg 2 Si in the air, followed by HCl removal of MgO to generate nanoporous silicon without the use of HF. By controlling the synthesis conditions, the oxygen content, grain size and yield of the porous silicon are simultaneously optimized from commercial standpoints. In situ environmental transmission electron microscopy reveals the reaction mechanism; the Mg 2 Si microparticle reacts with O 2 to form MgO and Si, while preventing SiO 2 formation. Owing to the low oxygen content and microscale secondary structure, the nanoporous silicon delivers a higher initial reversible capacity and initial Coulombic efficiency compared to commercial Si nanoparticles (3,033 mAh/g vs. 2,418 mAh/g, 84.3% vs. 73.1%). Synthesis is highly scalable, and a yield of 90.4% is achieved for the porous Si nanostructure with the capability to make an excess of 10 g per batch. Our synthetic nanoporous silicon is promising for practical applications in next generation lithium-ion batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Influence of Carbon-Nitride Dot-Emitting Species and Evolution on Fluorescence-Based Sensing and Differentiation

Carbon dots have attracted widespread interest for sensing applications based on their low cost, ease of synthesis, and robust optical properties. We investigate structure–function evolution on multiemitter fluorescence patterns for model carbon-nitride dots (CNDs) and their implications on trace-level sensing. Hydrothermally synthesized CNDs with different reaction times were used to determine how specific functionalities and their corresponding fluorescence signatures respond upon the addition of trace-level analytes. Archetype explosives molecules were chosen as a testbed due to similarities in substituent groups or inductive properties (i.e., electron withdrawing), and solution-based assays were performed using ratiometric fluorescence excitation–emission mapping (EEM). Analyte-specific quenching and enhancement responses were observed in EEM landscapes that varied with the CND reaction time. We then used self-organizing map models to examine EEM feature clustering with specific analytes. Finally, the results reveal that interactions between carbon-nitride frameworks and molecular-like species dictate response characteristics that may be harnessed to tailor sensor development for specific applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Introducing the 9500 Node Distribution Test System to Support Advanced Power Applications: An Operations-Focused Approach

The 9500 Node Test System is a representative section of distribution power system model developed as a part of the GridAPPS-D™ project, an effort funded by DOE as a part of the Grid Modernization Lab Consortium (GMLC) program. The test system was developed to fulfill a growing need to represent the rapidly evolving state of electric distribution systems by combining elements of legacy infrastructure systems, modern feeder topologies, and an anticipated future with smart grid technologies. It also provides a network model capable of supporting the simulation of operational scenarios such as the ones in a utility distribution control center. This test system allows the evaluation of the performance of advanced power applications in real-time, such as one that simulates the operations of an Advanced Distribution Management Systems (ADMS), Distributed Energy Resource Management Systems (DERMS), etc. in a Distribution control center. This model is an extension of the widely used IEEE 8500 Node Test Feeder and is currently being validated to become an IEEE test case to help increase adoption and widespread usage among both academia and industry. It is a full-size model representative of a section of a utility’s distribution system with multiple feeders fed from different substations. The model includes multiple distribution circuits, a sub-transmission system, multiple substations, behind the meter customer rooftop photovoltaics (PV), and multiple utility-scale distributed energy resources. To enable accurate simulations of operational scenarios, the 9500 Node Test System is designed to support procedure-based operations, with the ability to realistically demonstrate switching operations, feeder reconfiguration, adjustment of volt-var control equipment, dispatch of distributed generation, and response to planned and unplanned outages. The 9500 Node Test System includes three radial distribution feeders with 12.3 MVA of average load, consisting of both medium voltage and low voltage equipment each supplied by a different distribution substation. The three distribution feeders are connected to each other through Normally-Open switches which can be closed when needed to simulate restoration scenarios due to a fault. One feeder represents today’s grid with low penetration of customer-side renewables. The second represents a potential future grid with microgrids and 100% renewable penetration. The third has no customer generation resources, a district steam plant, and a utility-scale solar farm. The three diverse circuits were created to allow the simulation of both today’s situation as well as potential future scenarios. All three feeders have customers connected by low-voltage secondary triplex lines. This test system meets all requirements outlined in the report for creating a simulation environment that would enable discussion between key technical stakeholders as well as having the potential to accelerate operational application development and their subsequent testing and integration. The new model is a possible representation of what we believe the distribution grid may look like in the future: a high penetration of renewables, reconfigurable radial and mesh topology, numerous DERs, islanded microgrids, and significantly increased data and measurement density. The system supports both the solution of existing and newer algorithms but also enables the evaluation of applications in a realistic operational environment defined by task oriented procedural steps that represent the interaction between the control center operator and field personnel.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Assessment of Modeling and Simulation Technical Gaps in Safety Analysis of High Burnup Accident-Tolerant Fuels

The United States nuclear industry is facing a strong challenge to maintain regulatory-required levels of safety while ensuring economic competitiveness to stay in business. Safety remains a key parameter for all aspects related to the operation of light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs), and it can be achieved more economically by using a risk-informed ecosystem, such as that being developed by the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway under the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program. The LWRS Program is promoting a wide range of research and development activities to maximize both the safety and economically efficient performance of NPPs through improved scientific understanding, especially given that many plants are considering second license renewal. The RISA Pathway has two main goals: The deployment of methodologies and technologies that enable better representation of safety margins and the factors that contribute to cost and safety, and; The development of advanced applications that enable cost-effective plant operation. As part of the RISA Pathway, the Enhanced Resilient Plant (ERP) project refers to an NPP where safety is improved by implementing various measures, such as accident-tolerant fuels (ATF), diverse and flexible coping strategy (FLEX), enhancements to plant components and systems, incorporation of augmented or new passive cooling systems, and utilization of advanced battery technologies. The objective of the ERP research is to use novel methods and computational tools to enhance existing reactors’ safety while reducing operational costs. Many U.S. utilities are targeting implementation of ATFs instead of traditional fuel in the near future since ATFs offer benefits in terms of improved performance and cost savings. The robust properties of ATF make it possible to extend the refueling cycle from 18 to 24 months in addition to the opportunity to use less of fuel. Extensive safety assessments are required to support regulatory requirements and obtain the approvals to use ATFs and the ERP project support the industry by developing novel effective methodologies for safety evaluations. In this project, the technical gaps in the modeling and simulation of the high burnup (HBU) ATF were assessed in terms of the fuel cladding behavior during the postulated accident events. The issues were identified in modeling the cladding deformation, the hydrodynamic change due to cladding deformation and the critical heat flux (CHF). The RELAP5-3D cladding deformation model was assessed by multiple verification tests and validation with the instrumented fuel assembly (IFA) experiment.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Structure, Hydration, and Interactions of Native and Hydrophobically Modified Phytoglycogen Nanoparticles

Phytoglycogen is a highly branched polymer of glucose produced as soft, compact nanoparticles by sweet corn. Properties such as softness, porosity, and mechanical integrity, combined with nontoxicity and biodegradability, make phytoglycogen nanoparticles ideal for applications involving the human body, ranging from skin moisturizing and rejuvenation agents in personal care formulations to functional therapeutics in biomedicine. To further broaden the range of applications, phytoglycogen nanoparticles can be chemically modified with hydrophobic species such as octenyl succinic anhydride (OSA). In this study, we present a self-consistent model of the particle structure, water content, and degree of chemical modification of the particles, as well as the emergence of well-defined interparticle spacings in concentrated dispersions, based on small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) measurements of aqueous dispersions of native phytoglycogen nanoparticles and particles that were hydrophobically modified using octenyl succinic anhydride (OSA) in both its protiated (pOSA) and deuterated (dOSA) forms. Measurements on native particles with reduced polydispersity have allowed us to refine the particle morphology, which is well described by a hairy particle (core-chain) geometry with short chains decorating the surface of the particles. The isotopic variants of OSA-modified particles enhanced the scattering contrast for neutrons, revealing lightly modified hairy chains for small degrees of substitution (DS) of OSA, and a raspberry particle geometry for the largest DS value, where the OSA-modified hairy chains collapse to form small seeds on the surface of the particles. This refined model of native and OSA-modified phytoglycogen nanoparticles establishes a quantitative basis for the development of new applications of this promising sustainable nanotechnology.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Optical diagnostics of laser-produced plasmas

Laser-produced plasmas (LPPs) engulf exotic and complex conditions ranging in temperature, density, pressure, magnetic and electric fields, charge states, charged particle kinetics, and gas-phase reactions, based on the irradiation conditions, target geometries, and the background cover gas. The application potential of the LPP is so diverse that it generates considerable interest for both basic and applied research areas. The fundamental research on LPPs can be traced back to the early 1960s, immediately after the invention of the laser. In the 1970s, the laser was identified as a tool to pursue inertial confinement fusion, and since then, several other technologies emerged out of LPPs. These applications prompted the development and adaptation of innovative diagnostic tools for understanding the fundamental nature and spatiotemporal properties of these complex systems. Although most of the traditional characterization techniques developed for other plasma sources can be used to characterize the LPPs, care must be taken to interpret the results because of their small size, transient nature, and inhomogeneities. The existence of the large spatiotemporal density and temperature gradients often necessitates non-uniform weighted averaging over distance and time. Among the various plasma characterization tools, optical-based diagnostic tools play a key role in the accurate measurements of LPP parameters. The optical toolbox contains optical spectroscopy (emission, absorption, and fluorescence), passive and active imaging and optical probing methods (shadowgraphy, Schlieren, interferometry, Thomson scattering, deflectometry, and velocimetry). Each technique is useful for measuring a specific property, and its use is limited to a certain time span during the LPP evolution because of the sensitivity issues related to the selected measuring tool. Therefore, multiple diagnostic tools are essential for a comprehensive insight into the entire plasma behavior. In recent times, the improvements in performance in the lasers and detector systems expanded the capability of the aforementioned passive and active diagnostics tools. Furthermore, this review provides an overview of optical diagnostic tools frequently employed for the characterization of the LPPs and emphasizes techniques, associated assumptions, and challenges. Considering most of the industrial and other applications of the LPP belong to low to moderate laser intensities (10 8 – 10 15 Wcm –2 ), this review focuses on diagnostic tools pertaining to this regime.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Electrical Control and Transport of Tightly Bound Interlayer Excitons in a MoSe 2 /hBN/MoSe 2 Heterostructure

Controlling interlayer excitons in Van der Waals heterostructures holds promise for exploring Bose-Einstein condensates and developing novel optoelectronic applications, such as excitonic integrated circuits. Despite intensive studies, several key fundamental properties of interlayer excitons, such as their binding energies and interactions with charges, remain not well understood. Here we report the formation of momentum-direct interlayer excitons in a high-quality MoSe 2 /hBN/MoSe 2 heterostructure under an electric field, characterized by bright photoluminescence (PL) emission with high quantum yield and a narrow linewidth of less than 4 meV. These interlayer excitons show electrically tunable emission energy spanning ~1⁢8⁢0 meV through the Stark effect, and exhibit a sizable binding energy of ~8⁢1 meV in the intrinsic regime, along with trion binding energies of a few millielectronvolts. Remarkably, we demonstrate the long-range transport of interlayer excitons with a characteristic diffusion length exceeding 1⁢0 μ⁢m, which can be attributed, in part, to their dipolar repulsive interactions. Further, spatially and polarization-resolved spectroscopic studies reveal rich exciton physics in the system, such as valley polarization, local trapping, and the possible existence of dark interlayer excitons. Furthermore, the formation and transport of tightly bound interlayer excitons with narrow linewidth, coupled with the ability to electrically manipulate their properties, open exciting new avenues for exploring quantum many-body physics, including excitonic condensate and superfluidity, and for developing novel optoelectronic devices, such as exciton and photon routers.

2-dimensional systems↗

Probabilistic estimation of depth-resolved profiles of soil thermal diffusivity from temperature time series

Abstract. Improving the quantification of soil thermal and physical properties is key to achieving a better understanding and prediction of soil hydro-biogeochemical processes and their responses to changes in atmospheric forcing. Obtaining such information at numerous locations and/or over time with conventional soil sampling is challenging. The increasing availability of low-cost, vertically resolved temperature sensor arrays offers promise for improving the estimation of soil thermal properties from temperature time series, and the possible indirect estimation of physical properties. Still, the reliability and limitations of such an approach need to be assessed. In the present study, we develop a parameter estimation approach based on a combination of thermal modeling, sliding time windows, Bayesian inference, and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation to estimate thermal diffusivity and its uncertainty over time, at numerous locations and at an unprecedented vertical spatial resolution (i.e., down to 5 to 10 cm vertical resolution) from soil temperature time series. We provide the necessary framework to assess under which environmental conditions (soil temperature gradient, fluctuations, and trend), temperature sensor characteristics (bias and level of noise), and deployment geometries (sensor number and position) soil thermal diffusivity can be reliably inferred. We validate the method with synthetic experiments and field studies. The synthetic experiments show that in the presence of median diurnal fluctuations ≥ 1.5 ∘C at 5 cm below the ground surface, temperature gradients > 2 ∘C m−1, and a sliding time window of at least 4 d the proposed method provides reliable depth-resolved thermal diffusivity estimates with percentage errors ≤ 10 % and posterior relative standard deviations ≤ 5 % up to 1 m depth. Reliable thermal diffusivity under such environmental conditions also requires temperature sensors to be spaced precisely (with accuracy to a few millimeters), with a level of noise ≤ 0.02 ∘C, and with a bias defined by a standard deviation ≤ 0.01 ∘C. Finally, the application of the developed approach to field data indicates significant repeatability in results and similarity with independent measurements, as well as promise in using a sliding time window to estimate temporal changes in soil thermal diffusivity, as needed to potentially capture changes in bulk density or water content.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

APPLICATION OF OBJECTIVES-DRIVEN ASSURANCE CASES TO SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT IN AN EVOLVING ACQUISITION MODEL

System properties such as “safety” and “dependability” cannot, in practice, be proven, and must be argued in an “assurance case” aimed at supporting risk-acceptance decisions that have to be made by system acquirers and/or regulatory authorities. The paper is concerned with applications of the “assurance case” idea early in design and development of new systems, when (apart from dedicated testing) the only available operating experience information derives from previous (non-identical) systems. Much of the discussion is based on an evolving acquisition model at the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration; previously, most major systems were developed in-house, but some major systems will now be developed by and acquired from commercial providers. Key points discussed include the following. (1) By promoting a particular kind of focused discussion between acquirers and providers, the use of assurance cases should be particularly valuable under the new acquisition model. (2) In principle, objectives-driven (sometimes called “performance-based”) approaches to assurance of performance have significant advantages in cases where they are applicable. (3) For truly novel systems, completeness of the safety analysis is a significant issue; it is important for the assurance case to include a commitment by the provider (or applicant) to seriously pursue analysis of operating experience, so that previously unrecognized hazards can be identified and addressed. (4) Inquiries into major accidents often point to deficiencies in management oversight in all parts of the life cycle; management processes need to be addressed in the formulation and the implementation of an assurance case. Under the new acquisition model, these considerations imply a serious reconsideration of the way in which the development process is managed by both providers and acquirers.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Application of Objectives-Driven Assurance Cases to System Development in an Evolving Acquisition Model

System properties such as “safety” and “dependability” cannot, in practice, be proven, and must be argued in an “assurance case” aimed at supporting risk-acceptance decisions that have to be made by system acquirers and/or regulatory authorities. The paper is concerned with applications of the “assurance case” idea early in design and development of new systems, when (apart from dedicated testing) the only available operating experience information derives from previous (non-identical) systems. Much of the discussion is based on an evolving acquisition model at the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration; previously, most major systems were developed in-house, but some major systems will now be developed by and acquired from commercial providers. Key points discussed include the following. (1) By promoting a particular kind of focused discussion between acquirers and providers, the use of assurance cases should be particularly valuable under the new acquisition model. (2) In principle, objectives-driven (sometimes called “performance-based”) approaches to assurance of performance have significant advantages in cases where they are applicable. (3) For truly novel systems, completeness of the safety analysis is a significant issue; it is important for the assurance case to include a commitment by the provider (or applicant) to seriously pursue analysis of operating experience, so that previously unrecognized hazards can be identified and addressed. (4) Inquiries into major accidents often point to deficiencies in management oversight in all parts of the life cycle; management processes need to be addressed in the formulation and the implementation of an assurance case. Under the new acquisition model, these considerations imply a serious reconsideration of the way in which the development process is managed by both providers and acquirers.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗