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At least 883 records · Page 49

Performance of the all-digital data-transition tracking loop in the advanced receiver

The performance of the all-digital data-transition tracking loop (DTTL) with coherent or noncoherent sampling is described. The effects of few samples per symbol and of noncommensurate sampling rates and symbol rates are addressed and analyzed. Their impacts on the loop phase-error variance and the mean time to lose lock (MTLL) are quantified through computer simulations. The analysis and preliminary simulations indicate that with three to four samples per symbol, the DTTL can track with negligible jitter because of the presence of earth Doppler rate. Furthermore, the MTLL is also expected to be large engough to maintain lock over a Deep Space Network track.

Cheng, U.↗

Estimations of atmospheric boundary layer fluxes and other turbulence parameters from Doppler lidar data

Methods for extraction of boundary layer parameters from measurements of a short pulse CO2 Doppler lidar are presented. Assuming that the turbulence is horizontally homogeneous, the mean wind, its standard deviations, and the momentum fluxes are estimated. Regarding the analysis method, it is shown that for a horizontally homogeneous turbulence the mean wind, its variance and the vertical momentum fluxes can be determined from single Doppler lidar data.

Gal-Chen, Tzvi↗

Measuring Greenland Ice Mass Variation With Gravity Recovery and the Climate Experiment Gravity and GPS

The response of the Greenland ice sheet to climate change could significantly alter sea level. The ice sheet was much thicker at the last glacial maximum. To gain insight into the global change process and the future trend, it is important to evaluate the ice mass variation as a function of time and space. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission to fly in 2001 for 5 years will measure gravity changes associated with the current ice variation and the solid earth's response to past variations. Our objective is to assess the separability of different change sources, accuracy and resolution in the mass variation determination by the new gravity data and possible Global Positioning System (GPS) bedrock uplift measurements. We use a reference parameter state that follows a dynamic ice model for current mass variation and a variant of the Tushingham and Peltier ICE-3G deglaciation model for historical deglaciation. The current linear trend is also assumed to have started 5 kyr ago. The Earth model is fixed as preliminary reference Earth model (PREM) with four viscoelastic layers. A discrete Bayesian inverse algorithm is developed employing an isotropic Gaussian a priori covariance function over the ice sheet and time. We use data noise predicted by the University of Texas and JPL for major GRACE error sources. A 2 mm/yr uplift uncertainty is assumed for GPS occupation time of 5 years. We then carry out covariance analysis and inverse simulation using GRACE geoid coefficients up to degree 180 in conjunction with a number of GPS uplift rates. Present-day ice mass variation and historical deglaciation are solved simultaneously over 146 grids of roughly 110 km x 110 km and with 6 time increments of 3 kyr each, along with a common starting epoch of the current trend. For present-day ice thickness change, the covariance analysis using GRACE geoid data alone results in a root mean square (RMS) posterior root variance of 2.6 cm/yr, with fairly large a priori uncertainties in the parameters and a Gaussian correlation length of 350 km. Simulated inverse can successfully recover most features in the reference present-day change. The RMS difference between them over the grids is 2.8 cm/yr. The RMS difference becomes 1.1 cm/yr when both are averaged with a half Gaussian wavelength of 150 km. With a fixed Earth model, GRACE alone can separate the geoid signals due to past and current load fairly well. Shown are the reference geoid signatures of direct and elastic effects of the current trend, the viscoelastic effect of the same trend starting from 5 kyr ago, the Post Glacial Rebound (PGR), and the predicted GRACE geoid error. The difference between the reference and inverse modeled total viscoelastic signatures is also shown. Although past and current ice mass variations are allowed the same spatial scale, their geoid signals have different spatial patterns. GPS data can contribute to the ice mass determination as well. Additional information is contained in the original.

Wu, Xiao-Ping↗

Interannual Variations of TOA Albedo over the Arctic, Antarctic and Tibetan Plateau in 2000–2019

Recent changes in Earth’s climate system have significantly affected the radiation budget and its year-to-year variations at top of the atmosphere (TOA). Observing high-latitude TOA fluxes is still challenging from space, because spatial inhomogeneity of surface/atmospheric radiative processes and spectral variability can reflect sunlight very differently. In this study we analyze the 20-year TOA flux and albedo data from CERES and MISR over the Arctic, the Antarctic, and Tibetan Plateau (TP), and found overall great consistency in the TOA albedo trend and interannual variations. The observations reveal a lagged correlation between the Arctic and subarctic albedo fluctuations. The observed year-to-year variations are further used to evaluate the reanalysis data, which exhibit substantial shortcomings in representing the polar TOA flux variability. The observed Arctic flux variations are highly correlated with cloud fraction (CF), except in the regions where CF > 90% or where the surface is covered by ice. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis shows that the first five EOFs can account for ~50% of the Arctic TOA variance, whereas the correlation with climate indices suggests that Sea Ice Extent (SIE), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and 55°N–65°N cloudiness are the most influential processes in driving the TOA flux variabilities.

interannual variations↗

I Asked 30,000 People in the Nuclear Industry About Safety Culture; This is What I Learned - 19204

Organizations in the nuclear industry place a high value on maintaining the safety of the workforce and community. Some of these organizations do a better job than others when it comes to developing and sustaining a healthy safety culture. We spent six years studying nuclear organizations to better understand the factors that influence safety culture. We used mixed methods to evaluate perceptions of safety culture in these organizations including administering a valid and reliable safety culture survey, conducting one-on-one interviews with managers, and facilitating focus groups with members of the workforce. We analyzed the quantitative and qualitative data collected from more than 30,000 workers in U.S. based organizations. All of the organizations had a nuclear component to their operations. They operated nuclear reactors, processed nuclear materials, decontaminated and decommissioned buildings with radiological contamination, cleaned-up hazardous/mixed waste, and conducted basic science research and development. We talked to craft workers, technicians, engineers, scientific professionals, support personnel, production workers, supervisors and managers. We conducted extensive statistical analysis and learned that, with rare exception, there is a gap between the perceptions of managers and the workforce that they manage. Managers almost always have a more positive perception of safety culture than the people that are actually performing the work. It is not a question of whether there will be a gap; it is simply a matter of the magnitude of the gap. We also learned through exploratory factor analysis that there is one dominant factor that accounted for almost all (75%) of the variance in the perceptions of safety culture. It was the behavior of the leaders, the decisions they made, and the systems they implemented that most influenced the workforce's perception of safety culture. Personal accountability for safety accounted for 14% of the variance, communication and reporting accounted for another 6%. Everything else accounted for the remaining 5%. Management systems, decision making and behavior is the dominant factor and managers almost always have a more positive perception than the people that work for them. People that work in organizations where management exhibits positive decision-making and safety-related behaviors tend to have more positive perceptions of safety culture. Based upon these results, we developed a theory that there were a few important factors on which management could focus on if they sought to influence the safety culture in their organization. Our experience and research suggests that management often fails to recognize five root causes of employee discontent. Employees seek: - To be recognized as an individual; - To be respected; - A sense of stability; - Fairness; - To make a difference. Understanding the perceptions of the workforce is critical because perceptions influence attitudes, which contribute to behaviors that determine individual performance. An organisation's performance is simply the sum of the performance of all of the members of that organization. To change an organisation's safety culture, interventions should target management behavior and decision making for the greatest return on investment. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Prediction of liver remnant regeneration after living donor liver transplantation using preoperative CT texture analysis

Purpose: To predict the rate of liver regeneration after living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) using pre-operative computed tomography (CT) texture analysis. Materials and methods: 112 living donors who performed right hepatectomy for LDLT were included retrospectively. We measured the volume of future remnant liver (FLR) on pre-operative CT and the volume of remnant liver (LR) on follow-up CT, taken at a median of 123 days after transplantation. The regeneration index (RI) was calculated using the following equation: [(V{sub LR}−V{sub FLR})/V{sub FLR}] × 100. Computerized texture analysis of the semi-automatically segmented FLR was performed. We used a stepwise, multivariable linear regression to assess associations of clinical features and texture parameters in relation to RI and to make the best-fit predictive model. Results: The mean RI was 110.7 ± 37.8%, highly variable ranging from 22.4% to 247.0%. Among texture parameters, volume of FLR, standard deviation, variance, and gray level co-occurrence matrices (GLCM) contrast were found to have significant correlations between RI. In multivariable analysis, smaller volume of FLR (ß − 0.17, 95% CI − 0.22 to − 0.13) and lower GLCM contrast (ß − 1.87, 95% CI − 3.64 to − 0.10) were associated with higher RI. The regression equation predicting RI was following: RI = 203.82 + 10.42 × pre-operative serum total bilirubin (mg/dL) − 0.17 × V{sub FLR} (cm{sup 3}) − 1.87 × GLCM contrast (× 100). Conclusion: Volume of FLR and GLCM contrast were independent predictors of RI, showing significant negative correlations. Pre-operative CT with texture analysis can be useful for predicting the rate of liver regeneration in living donor of liver transplantation.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

The DESI N -body Simulation Project – II. Suppressing sample variance with fast simulations

ABSTRACT Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) will construct a large and precise three-dimensional map of our Universe. The survey effective volume reaches $\sim 20\, h^{-3}\, \mathrm{Gpc}^{3}$. It is a great challenge to prepare high-resolution simulations with a much larger volume for validating the DESI analysis pipelines. AbacusSummit is a suite of high-resolution dark-matter-only simulations designed for this purpose, with $200\, h^{-3}\, \mathrm{Gpc}^{3}$ (10 times DESI volume) for the base cosmology. However, further efforts need to be done to provide a more precise analysis of the data and to cover also other cosmologies. Recently, the CARPool method was proposed to use paired accurate and approximate simulations to achieve high statistical precision with a limited number of high-resolution simulations. Relying on this technique, we propose to use fast quasi-N-body solvers combined with accurate simulations to produce accurate summary statistics. This enables us to obtain 100 times smaller variance than the expected DESI statistical variance at the scales we are interested in, e.g. $k \lt 0.3\, h\, \mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$ for the halo power spectrum. In addition, it can significantly suppress the sample variance of the halo bispectrum. We further generalize the method for other cosmologies with only one realization in AbacusSummit suite to extend the effective volume ∼20 times. In summary, our proposed strategy of combining high-fidelity simulations with fast approximate gravity solvers and a series of variance suppression techniques sets the path for a robust cosmological analysis of galaxy survey data.

cosmology: theory↗

Three-Dimensional Field Solutions for Multi-Pole Cylindrical Halbach Arrays in an Axial Orientation

This article presents three-dimensional B field solutions for the cylindrical Halbach array in an axial orientation. This arrangement has applications in the design of axial motors and passive axial magnetic bearings and couplers. The analytical model described here assumes ideal magnets with fixed and uniform magnetization. The field component functions are expressed as sums of 2-D definite integrals that are easily computed by a number of mathematical analysis software packages. The analysis is verified with sample calculations and the results are compared to equivalent results from traditional finite-element analysis (FEA). The field solutions are then approximated for use in flux linkage and induced EMF calculations in nearby stator windings by expressing the field variance with angular displacement as pure sinusoidal function whose amplitude depends on radial and axial position. The primary advantage of numerical implementation of the analytical approach presented in the article is that it lends itself more readily to parametric analysis and design tradeoffs than traditional FEA models.

Thompson, William K.↗

TOFHunter—unlocking rapid untargeted screening of inductively coupled plasma–time-of-flight–mass spectrometry data

This study provides an overview of a newly developed open source program written in Python, TOFHunter, which permits the rapid and untargeted screening of inductively coupled plasma (ICP)-time-of-flight (TOF)-mass spectrometry (MS) datasets. ICP-TOF-MS is an analytical tool capable of providing quasi simultaneous detection of all nuclides from Li to Pu. This capability has triggered an increase in studies investigating single-particle analysis in which the TOF-MS provides correlated elemental/isotopic signatures on a particle basis in time. Similarly, laser ablation mapping has seen rapid growth owing to ICP-TOF-MS's capacity to handle fast washout times (<10 ms) while providing a broad nuclide coverage. The caveat to this broad mass coverage and high time resolution comes in the form of large, overwhelming datasets. With datasets typically on the scale of gigabytes, it is easy for a user to only focus on very targeted analytes; however, this focus diminishes the opportunity offered by the TOF-MS detector. TOFHunter applies chemometric methods, principal component analysis (PCA), and interesting features finder (IFF) on ICP-TOF-MS data, allowing for investigation of correlations, major and minor variance sources, and sample screening. The unique spectra identified by the (IFF) are used to generate a list of mass peaks, which are then matched with both nuclides and potential interferences before being exported for the user to investigate. Several case studies are discussed herein, demonstrating TOFHunter's ability to screen aqueous injections, single-particle/single-cell analysis, and probe laser ablation mapping files for unique regions of interest.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Second-Order Sensitivity Analysis of Uncollided Particle Contributions to Radiation Detector Responses

This work presents an application of Cacuci’s Second-Order Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology (2nd-ASAM) to the simplified Boltzmann equation that models the transport of uncollided particles through a medium to compute efficiently and exactly all of the first- and second-order derivatives (sensitivities) of a detector’s response with respect to the system’s isotopic number densities, microscopic cross sections, source emission rates, and detector response function. The off-the-shelf PARTISN multigroup discrete ordinates code is employed to solve the equations underlying the 2nd-ASAM. The accuracy of the results produced using PARTISN is verified by using the results of three test configurations: (1) a homogeneous sphere, for which the response is the exactly known total uncollided leakage, (2) a multiregion two-dimensional (r-z) cylinder, and (3) a two-region sphere for which the response is a reaction rate. For the homogeneous sphere, results for the total leakage as well as for the respective first- and second-order sensitivities are in excellent agreement with the exact benchmark values. For the nonanalytic problems, the results obtained by applying the 2nd-ASAM to compute sensitivities are in excellent agreement with central-difference estimates. The efficiency of the 2nd-ASAM is underscored by the fact that, for the cylinder, only 12 adjoint PARTISN computations were required by the 2nd-ASAM to compute all of the benchmark’s 18 first-order sensitivities and 224 second-order sensitivities, in contrast to the 877 PARTISN calculations needed to compute the respective sensitivities using central finite differences, and this number does not include the additional calculations that were required to find appropriate values of the perturbations to use for the central differences.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Fluid Dynamics of Bubbly Liquids

Experiments have been performed to study the average flow properties of inertially dominated bubbly liquids which may be described by a novel analysis. Bubbles with high Reynolds number and low Weber number may produce a fluid velocity disturbance that can be approximated by a potential flow. We studied the behavior of suspensions of bubbles of about 1.5 mm diameter in vertical and inclined channels. The suspension was produced using a bank of 900 glass capillaries with inner diameter of about 100 microns in a quasi-steady fashion. In addition, salt was added to the suspension to prevent bubble-bubble coalescence. As a result, a nearly monodisperse suspension of bubble was produced. By increasing the inclination angle, we were able to explore an increasing amount of shear to buoyancy motion. A pipe flow experiment with the liquid being recirculated is under construction. This will provide an even larger range of shear to buoyancy motion. We are planning a microgravity experiment in which a bubble suspension is subjected to shearing in a couette cell in the absence of a buoyancy-driven relative motion of the two phases. By employing a single-wire, hot film anemometer, we were able to obtain the liquid velocity fluctuations. The shear stress at the wall was measured using a hot film probe flush mounted on the wall. The gas volume fraction, bubble velocity, and bubble velocity fluctuations were measured using a homemade, dual impedance probe. In addition, we also employed a high-speed camera to obtain the bubble size distribution and bubble shape in a dilute suspension. A rapid decrease in bubble velocity for a dilute bubble suspension is attributed to the effects of bubble-wall collisions. The more gradual decrease of bubble velocity as gas volume fraction increases, due to subsequent hindering of bubble motion, is in qualitative agreement with the predictions of Spelt and Sangani for the effects of potential-flow bubble-bubble interactions on the mean velocity. The ratio of the bubble velocity variance to the square of the mean is 0(0.1). For these conditions Spelt and Sangani predicted that the homogeneous suspension would be unstable and clustering into horizontal rafts will take place. Evidence for bubble clustering is obtained by analysis of video images. The liquid velocity variance is larger than would be expected for a homogeneous suspension and the liquid velocity frequency spectrum indicates the presence of velocity fluctuations that are slow compared with the time for the passage of an individual bubble. These observations provide further evidence for bubble clustering.

Tsang, Y. H.↗

A Regularized Variance-Reduced Modified Extragradient Method for Stochastic Hierarchical Games

We consider an N -player hierarchical game in which the i th player’s objective comprises of an expectation-valued term, parametrized by rival decisions, and a hierarchical term. Such a framework allows for capturing a broad range of stochastic hierarchical optimization problems, Stackelberg equilibrium problems, and leader-follower games. We develop an iteratively regularized and smoothed variance-reduced modified extragradient framework for iteratively approaching hierarchical equilibria in a stochastic setting. We equip our analysis with rate statements, complexity guarantees, and almost-sure convergence results. We then extend these statements to settings where the lower-level problem is solved inexactly and provide the corresponding rate and complexity statements. Our model framework encompasses many game theoretic equilibrium problems studied in the context of power markets. We present a realistic application to the study of virtual power plants, emphasizing the role of hierarchical decision making and regularization. Preliminary numerics suggest that empirical behavior compares well with theoretical guarantees.

Tikhonov regularization↗

SOARCA Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Long-Term Station Blackout Uncertainty Analysis: Knowledge Advancement.

This paper describes the knowledge advancements from the uncertainty analysis for the State-of- the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) unmitigated long-term station blackout accident scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. This work assessed key MELCOR and MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2) modeling uncertainties in an integrated fashion to quantify the relative importance of each uncertain input on potential accident progression, radiological releases, and off-site consequences. This quantitative uncertainty analysis provides measures of the effects on consequences, of each of the selected uncertain parameters both individually and in interaction with other parameters. The results measure the model response (e.g., variance in the output) to uncertainty in the selected input. Investigation into the important uncertain parameters in turn yields insights into important phenomena for accident progression and off-site consequences. This uncertainty analysis confirmed the known importance of some parameters, such as failure rate of the Safety Relief Valve in accident progression modeling and the dry deposition velocity in off-site consequence modeling. The analysis also revealed some new insights, such as dependent effect of cesium chemical form for different accident progressions. (auth)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Relationship Between Satellite-Derived Snow Cover and Snowmelt-Runoff Timing and Stream Power in the Wind River Range, Wyoming

Earlier onset of springtime weather including earlier snowmelt has been documented in the western United States over at least the last 50 years. Because the majority (>70%) of the water supply in the western U.S. comes from snowmelt, analysis of the declining spring snowpack (and shrinking glaciers) has important implications for streamflow management. The amount of water in a snowpack influences stream discharge which can also influence erosion and sediment transport by changing stream power, or the rate at which a stream can do work such as move sediment and erode the stream bed. The focus of this work is the Wind River Range (WRR) in west-central Wyoming. Ten years of Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow-cover, cloud- gap-filled (CGF) map products and 30 years of discharge and meteorological station a are studied. Streamflow data from six streams in the WRR drainage basins show lower annual discharge and earlier snowmelt in the decade of the 2000s than in the previous three decades, though no trend of either lower streamflow or earlier snowmelt was observed using MODIS snow-cover maps within the decade of the 2000s. Results show a statistically-significant trend at the 95% confidence level (or higher) of increasing weekly maximum air temperature (for three out of the five meteorological stations studied) in the decade of the 1970s, and also for the 40-year study period. MODIS- derived snow cover (percent of basin covered) measured on 30 April explains over 89% of the variance in discharge for maximum monthly streamflow in the decade of the 2000s using Spearman rank correlation analysis. We also investigated stream power for Bull Lake Creek Above Bull Lake from 1970 to 2009; a statistically-significant trend toward reduced stream power was found (significant at the 90% confidence level). Observed changes in streamflow and stream power may be related to increasing weekly maximum air temperature measured during the 40-year study period. The strong relationship between percent of basin covered and streamflow indicates that MODIS data is useful for predicting streamflow, leading to improved reservoir management.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

Relationship Between Satellite-Derived Snow Cover and Snowmelt-Runoff Timing and Stream Power in the Wind River Range, Wyoming

Earlier onset of springtime weather including earlier snowmelt has been documented in the western United States over at least the last 50 years. Because the majority (>70%) of the water supply in the western U.S. comes from snowmelt, analysis of the declining spring snowpack (and shrinking glaciers) has important implications for streamflow management. The amount of water in a snowpack influences stream discharge which can also influence erosion and sediment transport by changing stream power, or the rate at which a stream can do work such as move sediment and erode the stream bed. The focus of this work is the Wind River Range (WRR) in west-central Wyoming. Ten years of Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow-cover, cloud- gap-filled (CGF) map products and 30 years of discharge and meteorological station data are studied. Streamflow data from six streams in the WRR drainage basins show lower annual discharge and earlier snowmelt in the decade of the 2000s than in the previous three decades, though no trend of either lower streamflow or earlier snowmelt was observed using MODIS snow-cover maps within the decade of the 2000s. Results show a statistically-significant trend at the 95% confidence level (or higher) of increasing weekly maximum air temperature (for three out of the five meteorological stations studied) in the decade of the 1970s, and also for the 40-year study period. MODIS-derived snow cover (percent of basin covered) measured on 30 April explains over 89% of the variance in discharge for maximum monthly streamflow in the decade of the 2000s using Spearman rank correlation analysis. We also investigated stream power for Bull Lake Creek Above Bull Lake from 1970 to 2009; a statistically-significant end toward reduced stream power was found (significant at the 90% confidence level). Observed changes in streamflow and stream power may be related to increasing weekly maximum air temperature measured during the 40-year study period. The strong relationship between percent of basin covered and streamflow indicates that MODIS data is useful for predicting streamflow, leading to improved reservoir management

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

Modelling safety of multistate systems with ageing components

An innovative approach to safety analysis of multistate ageing systems is presented. Basic notions of the ageing multistate systems safety analysis are introduced. The system components and the system multistate safety functions are defined. The mean values and variances of the multistate systems lifetimes in the safety state subsets and the mean values of their lifetimes in the particular safety states are defined. The multi-state system risk function and the moment of exceeding by the system the critical safety state are introduced. Applications of the proposed multistate system safety models to the evaluation and prediction of the safty characteristics of the consecutive “m out of n: F” is presented as well.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Future projections and uncertainty assessment of precipitation extremes in the Korean peninsula from the CMIP5 ensemble

Abstract Projections of changes in extreme climate are sometimes predicted by multimodel ensemble methods that combine forecasts from individual simulation models using weighted averaging. One method to assign weight to each model is the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) in which posterior probability is used. For the cases of extreme climate, the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) is typically used. We applied the approach of GEV‐embedded BMA to a series of 35 years of the annual maximum daily precipitation data (both historical data and data gathered from simulation experiments for future periods) over the Korean peninsula as simulated by the models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Simulation data under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were used. Observed data and 17 CMIP5 models for 12 gird cells in Korea have been examined to predict future changes in precipitation extremes. A simple regional frequency analysis of pooling observations from three stations in each cell was employed to reduce the estimation variance and local fluctuations. A bias correction technique using the regression‐type transfer function was applied to these simulation data. Return levels spanning over 20 and 50 years, as well as the return periods relative to the reference years (1971–2005), were estimated for two future periods, namely Period 1 (2021–2050) and Period 2 (2066–2095). From these analyses, relative increase observed in the spatially averaged 20‐year (50‐year) return level was approximately 23% (16%) and 45% (36%) in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 experiments, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. We concluded that extreme rainfalls will likely occur two times and four times more frequently in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, as compared to in the reference years by the end of the 21st century.

Lee, Youngsaeng↗

Reducing Interanalyst Variability in Photovoltaic Degradation Rate Assessments

The economic return on investment of a commercial photovoltaic system depends greatly on its performance over the long term and, hence, its degradation rate. Many methods have been proposed for assessing system degradation rates from outdoor performance data. However, comparing reported values from one analyst and research group to another requires a common baseline of performance; consistency between methods and analysts can be a challenge. An interlaboratory study was conducted involving different volunteer analysts reporting on the same photovoltaic performance data using different methodologies. Initial variability of the reported degradation rates was so high that analysts could not come to a consensus whether a system degraded or not. More consistent values are received when written guidance is provided to each analyst. Further improvements in analyst variance was accomplished by using the free open-source software RdTools, allowing a reduction in variance between analysts by more than two orders of magnitude over the first round, where multiple analysis methods are allowed. This article highlights many pitfalls in conducting 'routine' degradation analysis, and it addresses some of the factors that must be considered when comparing degradation results reported by different analysts or methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗