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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2001

A Study of the Economic Benefit Potential of Intermodal Transports

A conceptual study was conducted to determine the benefit potential of an Intermodal Transport in which quick change payload modules are used to reduce the cost of air travel by increasing daily utilization. Three basic concepts varying the degree of modularity were investigated for a 122,000 pounds payload 3,000 NM range regional wide body transport. The profit potential for operating as a passenger transport during the day and as a freighter at night was assessed. Assuming current levels of profitability, Intermodal operations could offer an operating cost reduction potential up to 20%. Enabling technology needs are identified as very quiet aircraft for expanded night operations, distributed load carrying quick disconnect latching, and configuration dependent safety issues. Recommendations are made to explore if additional benefits are possible from alternative mission and usage modules.

Nelson, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Evaluation of Candidate Materials for a High-Temperature Stirling Convertor Heater Head

The Department of Energy (DOE) and NASA have identified Stirling Radioisotope Generators (SRG) as a candidate power system for use on long-duration, deep-space science missions and Mars rovers. One of the developments planned for an upgraded version of the current SRG design is to achieve higher efficiency by increasing the overall operating temperature of the system. Currently, the SRG operates with a heater head temperature of 650 C and is fabricated from the nickel base superalloy 718. This temperature is at the limit of Alloy 718's capability, and any planned increase in temperature will be contingent on identifying a more capable material from which to fabricate the heater head. To this end, an assessment of material candidates was performed assuming a range of heater head temperatures. The chosen alternative material candidates will be discussed, along with the development efforts needed to ensure that these materials can meet the demanding system requirements of long-duration operation in hostile environments.

Bowman, Randy↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sorted-cell proteomics reveals an AT1-associated epithelial cornification phenotype and suggests endothelial redox imbalance in human bronchopulmonary dysplasia

Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is a neonatal lung disease characterized by inflammation and scarring leading to long-term tissue damage. Previous whole tissue proteomics identified BPD-specific proteome changes and cell type shifts. Little is known about the proteome-level changes within specific cell populations in disease. Here, we sorted epithelial (EPI) and endothelial (ENDO) cell populations based on their differential surface markers from normal and BPD human lungs. Using a low-input compatible sample preparation method (MicroPOT), proteins were extracted and digested into peptides and subjected to liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) proteome analysis. Of the 4,970 proteins detected, 293 were modulated in abundance or detection in the EPI population and 422 were modulated in ENDO cells. Modulation of proteins associated with actin-cytoskeletal function, such as SCEL, LMO7, and TBA1B was observed in the BPD EPIs. Using confocal imaging and analysis, we validated the presence of aberrant multilayer-like structures comprising SCEL and LMO7, known to be associated with epidermal cornification, in the human BPD lung. This is the first report of the accumulation of cornification-associated proteins in BPD. Their localization in the alveolar parenchyma, primarily associated with alveolar type 1 (AT1) cells, suggests a role in the BPD postinjury response. In the ENDOs, redox balance and mitochondrial function pathways were modulated. Alternative mRNA splicing and cell proliferative functions were elevated in both populations, suggesting potential dysregulation of cell progenitor fate. This study characterized the proteome of epithelial and endothelial cells from the BPD lung for the first time, identifying population-specific changes in BPD pathogenesis.

BPD↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Framework for Bulk Electric Grid Impacts from HEMP E1 and E3 Effects (Tasks 3.1 Final Report)

This report presents a framework to evaluate the impact of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) event on a bulk electric power grid. This report limits itself to modeling the impact of EMP E1 and E3 components. The co-simulation of E1 and E3 is presented in detail, and the focus of the paper is on the framework rather than actual results. This approach is highly conservative as E1 and E3 are not maximized with the same event characteristics and may only slightly overlap. The actual results shown in this report are based on a synthetic grid with synthetic data and a limited exemplary EMP model. The framework presented can be leveraged and used to analyze the impact of other threat scenarios, both manmade and natural disasters. This report d escribes a Monte-Carlo based methodology to probabilistically quantify the transient response of the power grid to a HEMP event. The approach uses multiple fundamental steps to characterize the system response to HEMP events, focused on the E1 and E3 components of the event. 1) Obtain component failure data related to HEMP events testing of components and creating component failure models. Use the component failure model to create component failure conditional probability density function (PDF) that is a function of the HEMP induced terminal voltage. 2) Model HEMP scenarios and calculate the E1 coupled voltage profiles seen by all system components. Model the same HEMP scenarios and calculate the transformer reactive power consumption profiles due to E3. 3) Sample each component failure PDF to determine which grid components will fail, due to the E1 voltage spike, for each scenario. 4) Perform dynamic simulations that incorporate the predicted component failures from E1 and reactive power consumption at each transformer affected by E3. These simulations allow for secondary transients to affect the relays/protection remaining in service which can lead to cascading outages. 5) Identify the locations and amount of load lost for each scenario through grid dynamic simulation. This can be an indication of the immediate grid impacts from a HEMP event. In addition, perform more detailed analysis to determine critical nodes and system trends. 6) To help realize the longer-term impacts, a security constrained alternating current optimal power flow (ACOPF) is run to maximize critical load served. This report describes a modeling framework to assess the systemic grid impacts due to a HEMP event. This stochastic simulation framework generates a large amount of data for each Monte Carlo replication, including HEMP location and characteristics, relay and component failures, E3 GIC profiles, cascading dynamics including voltage and frequency over time, and final system state. This data can then be analyzed to identify trends, e.g., unique system behavior modes or critical components whose failure is more likely to cause serious systemic effects. The proposed analysis process is demonstrated on a representative system. In order to draw realistic conclusions of the impact of a HEMP event on the grid, a significant amount of work remains with respect to modeling the impact on various grid components.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Investigating PVC polymer–plasticizer interactions with atomistic MD simulations and potential of mean force calculations

For this work, atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulations coupled with potential of mean force (PMF) calculations were employed to investigate the interactions between PVC polymer chains containing 6–20 repeating units and various plasticizers, with the goal of identifying potential replacements for the toxic plasticizer di(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate (DEHP) used in blood bags. The selected plasticizers belong to various chemical families, such as orthophthalates, citrates, adipates, and the terephthalate DEHT. Both the polymer and the plasticizers lack ionizable groups, and their interactions are primarily governed by van der Waals and electrostatic forces. A model correlating PMF profiles with interaction forces was developed and validated across polyvinyl chloride (PVC) polymers of different lengths and all investigated plasticizers. This model provides insight into how structural variations in plasticizers influence their respective PMF values. The study ranks the investigated plasticizers based on binding affinity, identifying TOTM (tris(2-ethylhexyl) trimellitate, TEHTM), BTHC (butyryl trihexyl citrate, Citroflex B-6), ATHC (acetyl trihexyl citrate, Citroflex A-6, CA-6), and DEHT (bis(2-ethylhexyl)terephthalate, DOTP/DEHTP) as promising alternatives for further investigation. This comprehensive study encompasses PVC polymers of four different lengths and 14 plasticizers, with all data averaged over 30 independent simulations. The approach provides a deeper understanding of molecular interactions, enabling the tailoring of polymer–plasticizer systems for diverse applications, including extractables and leachables, with relevance spanning materials science to biomedical engineering, and also serves as a basis for developing coarse-grained simulation protocols. Overall, this study provides valuable insights for designing safer and more efficient plasticizer substitutes and is well supported by other studies.

Shet, Sai Athmeeya G. [Sri Sathya Sai Institute of↗

DOE OSTI2024

Comparative Performance of Three Eye-Tracking Devices in Detection of Mild Traumatic Brain Injury in Acute Versus Chronic Subject Populations

ABSTRACT Introduction Presently, traumatic brain injury (TBI) triage in field settings relies on symptom-based screening tools such as the updated Military Acute Concussion Evaluation. Objective eye-tracking may provide an alternative means of neurotrauma screening due to sensitivity to neurotrauma brain-health changes. Previously, the US Army Medical Research and Development Command Non-Invasive NeuroAssessment Devices (NINAD) Integrated Product Team identified 3 commercially available eye-tracking devices (SyncThink EYE-SYNC, Oculogica EyeBOX, NeuroKinetics IPAS) as meeting criteria toward being operationally effective in the detection of TBI in service members. We compared these devices to assess their relative performance in the classification of mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) subjects versus normal healthy controls. Materials and Methods Participants 18 to 45 years of age were assigned to Acute mTBI, Chronic mTBI, or Control group per study criteria. Each completed a TBI assessment protocol with all 3 devices counterbalanced across participants. Acute mTBI participants were tested within 72 hours following injury whereas time since last injury for the Chronic mTBI group ranged from months to years. Discriminant analysis was undertaken to determine device classification performance in separating TBI subjects from controls. Area Under the Curves (AUCs) were calculated and used to compare the accuracy of device performance. Device-related factors including data quality, the need to repeat tests, and technical issues experienced were aggregated for reporting. Results A total of 63 participants were recruited as Acute mTBI subjects, 34 as Chronic mTBI subjects, and 119 participants without history of TBI as controls. To maximize outcomes, poorer quality data were excluded from analysis using specific criteria where possible. Final analysis utilized 49 (43 male/6 female, mean [x̅] age = 24.3 years, SD [s] = 5.1) Acute mTBI subjects, and 34 (33 male/1 female, x̅ age = 38.8 years, s = 3.9) Chronic mTBI subjects were age- and gender-matched as closely as possible with Control subjects. AUCs obtained with 80% of total dataset ranged from 0.690 to 0.950 for the Acute Group and from 0.753 to 0.811 for the Chronic mTBI group. Validation with the remaining 20% of dataset produced AUCs ranging from 0.600 to 0.750 for Acute mTBI group and 0.490 to 0.571 for the Chronic mTBI group. Conclusions Potential eye-tracking detection of mTBI, per training model outcomes, ranged from acceptable to excellent for the Acute mTBI group; however, it was less consistent for the Chronic mTBI group. The self-imposed targeted performance (AUC of 0.850) appears achievable, but further device improvements and research are necessary. Discriminant analysis models differed for the Acute versus Chronic mTBI groups, suggesting performance differences in eye-tracking. Although eye-tracking demonstrated sensitivity in the Chronic group, a more rigorous and/or longitudinal study design is required to evaluate this observation. mTBI injuries were not controlled for this study, potentially reducing eye-tracking assessment sensitivity. Overall, these findings indicate that while eye-tracking remains a viable means of mTBI screening, device-specific variability in data quality, length of testing, and ease of use must be addressed to achieve NINAD objectives and DoD implementation.

General & Internal Medicine↗

DOE OSTI2026

Measurement of fifth- and sixth-order fluctuations of (net-)proton number in Au + Au collisions from phase II of the beam energy scan program at RHIC

We report high-statistics measurements of fifth- and sixth-order factorial cumulants and cumulant ratios of (net-)proton multiplicity distributions in Au+Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 7.7–27GeV, using data from the STAR experiment collected during the Beam Energy Scan Phase II at RHIC. Protons and antiprotons are identified at midrapidity (|𝑦| < 0.5) with transverse momentum 0.4 < 𝑝 𝑇 < 2.0GeV/𝑐. The proton factorial cumulants 𝜅 4 , 𝜅 5 , and 𝜅 6 increase with order but exhibit no sign alternation within current uncertainties, offering no evidence for a two-component structure in the proton multiplicity distribution, as might be expected near a first-order phase transition. The cumulant ratios 𝐶 5 /𝐶 1 and 𝐶 6 /𝐶 2 fluctuate around zero in collisions at 0–40% centrality. The results are consistent with both the negative predictions from lattice QCD and the positive trends obtained from the ultrarelativistic quantum molecular dynamics (UrQMD) model. At $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ ≳ 27GeV, the 𝐶 4 /𝐶 2 and 𝐶 5 /𝐶 1 results are compatible with predictions from lattice QCD, functional renormalization group (FRG), and hadron resonance gas (HRG) models, while UrQMD describes the data better at lower energies. Here, these measurements place constraints on baryon number fluctuations and offer valuable insights into the QCD phase structure.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Conformational heterogeneity in the dGsw purine riboswitch: role of Mg²⁺ and 2’-dG in aptamer folding

Recent advancements in RNA structural biology have focused on unraveling the complexities of non-coding mRNA elements like riboswitches. These cis-acting regulatory regions undergo structural changes in response to specific cellular metabolites, leading to up or downregulation of downstream genes. The purine riboswitch family regulates many prokaryotic genes involved in purine degradation and biosynthesis. They feature an aptamer domain organized around a 3-way helical junction, where ligand encapsulation occurs at the junctional core. In our study, we chemically probed the aptamer domain of the 2’-dG-sensing purine riboswitch from Mesoplasma florum (dGsw) under various solution conditions to understand how Mg²⁺ and 2’-dG influence riboswitch folding. Here, we find that efficient 2’-dG binding strongly depends on Mg²⁺, indicating that Mg²⁺ is essential for priming dGsw for ligand interactions. We identified a previously undescribed sequence in the 5’ tail of dGsw that is complementary to a conserved helix. The inclusion of this region in a construct led to intramolecular competition between the alternate helix, Palt, and P1. Mutational analysis confirmed that 5’ flanking end of the aptamer domain forms an alternate helix in the absence of ligand. Molecular dynamics simulations revealed that this alternative conformation is stable. This helix may, therefore, facilitate the formation of an anti-terminator helix by opening the 3-way junction surrounding the 2’-dG binding site. Our study further establishes the importance of a closed terminal P1 helix conformation for metabolite binding and suggests that the delicate interplay between P1 and Palt may fine-tune downstream gene regulation. These insights offer a new perspective on riboswitch structure and enhance our understanding of the role that a conformational ensemble plays in riboswitch activity and regulation.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sporophyte Stage Genes Exhibit Stronger Selection Than Gametophyte Stage Genes in Haplodiplontic Giant Kelp

Macrocystis pyrifera (giant kelp), a haplodiplontic brown macroalga that alternates between a macroscopic diploid (sporophyte) and a microscopic haploid (gametophyte) phase, provides an ideal system to investigate how ploidy background affects the evolutionary history of a gene. In M. pyrifera , the same genome is subjected to different selective pressures and environments as it alternates between haploid and diploid life stages. We assembled M. pyrifera gene models using available expression data and validated 8,292 genes models using the model alga Ectocarpus siliculosus . Differential expression analysis identified gene models expressed in either or both the haploid and diploid life stages while functional annotation identified processes enriched in each stage. Genes expressed preferentially or exclusively in the gametophyte stage were found to have higher nucleotide diversity (π = 2.3 × 10 –3 and 2.8 × 10 –3 , respectively) than those for sporophytes (π = 1.1 × 10 –3 and 1 × 10 –3 , respectively). While gametophyte-biased genes show faster sequence evolution, the sequence evolution exhibits less signatures of adaptations when compared to sporophyte-biased genes. Our findings contrast the standing masking hypothesis, which predicts higher standing genetic variation at the sporophyte stage, and support the strength of expression theory, which posits that genes expressed more strongly are expected to evolve slower. We argue that the sporophyte stage undergoes more stringent selection compared with the gametophyte stage, which carries a heavy genetic load associated with broadcast spawning. Furthermore, using whole-genome sequencing, we confirm the strong population structure in wild M. pyrifera populations previously established using microsatellite markers, and estimate population genetic parameters, such as pairwise genetic diversity and Tajima’s D , important for conservation and domestication of M. pyrifera .

Molano, Gary↗

NASA NTRS1977

Ride quality research techniques: Section on general techniques

Information is gathered about the methods currently used for the study of ride quality in a variety of transportation modes by a variety of research organizations, including universities, Federal agencies, contracting firms, and private industries. Detailed descriptions of these techniques and their strengths and weaknesses, and identifying the organizations using such methods are presented. The specific efforts of the Group's participants, as well as a variety of feasible approaches not currently in use, are presented as methodological alternatives under the three basic factors which must be considered in ride quality studies: research techniques, research environments, and choice of subjects.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1980

Design study of toroidal traction CVT for electric vehicles

The development, evaluation, and optimization of a preliminary design concept for a continuously variable transmission (CVT) to couple the high-speed output shaft of an energy storage flywheel to the drive train of an electric vehicle is discussed. An existing computer simulation program was modified and used to compare the performance of five CVT design configurations. Based on this analysis, a dual-cavity full-toroidal drive with regenerative gearing is selected for the CVT design configuration. Three areas are identified that will require some technological development: the ratio control system, the traction fluid properities, and evaluation of the traction contact performance. Finally, the suitability of the selected CVT design concept for alternate electric and hybrid vehicle applications and alternate vehicle sizes and maximum output torques is determined. In all cases the toroidal traction drive design concept is applicable to the vehicle system. The regenerative gearing could be eliminated in the electric powered vehicle because of the reduced ratio range requirements. In other cases the CVT with regenerative gearing would meet the design requirements after appropriate adjustments in size and reduction gearing ratio.

Raynard, A. E.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Satellite power system: Concept development and evaluation program. Volume 3: Power transmission and reception. Technical summary and assessment

Efforts in the DOE/NASA concept development and evaluation program are discussed for the solar power satellite power transmission and reception system. A technical summary is provided together with a summary of system assessment activities. System options and system definition drivers are described. Major system assessment activities were in support of the reference system definition, solid state system studies, critical technology supporting investigations, and various system and subsystem tradeoffs. These activities are described together with reference system updates and alternative concepts for each of the subsystem areas. Conclusions reached as a result of the numerous analytical and experimental evaluations are presented. Remaining issues for a possible follow-on program are identified.

Dietz, R. H.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Rice cultivation and methane emission: Documentation of distributed geographic data sets

High-resolution global data bases on the geographic and seasonal distribution of rice cultivation and associated methane emission, compiled by Matthews et al., were archived for public use. In addition to the primary data sets identifying location, seasonality, and methane emission from rice cultivation, a series of supporting data sets is included, allowing users not only to replicate the work of Matthews et al. but to investigate alternative cultivation and emission scenarios. The suite of databases provided, at 1 latitude by 1 longitude resolution for the globe, includes (1) locations of rice cultivation, (2) monthly arrays of actively growing rice areas, (3) countries and political subdivisions, and (4) monthly arrays of methane emission from rice cultivation. Ancillary data include (1) a listing, by country, of harvested rice areas and seasonal distribution of crop cycles and (2) country names and codes. Summary tables of zonal/monthly distributions of actively growing rice areas and of methane emissions are presented. Users should consult original publications for complete discussion of the data bases. This short paper is designed only to document formats of the distributed information and briefly describe the contents of the data sets and their initial application to evaluating the role of rice cultivation in the methane budget.

Matthews, Elaine↗

NASA NTRS2001

Development of the Variable Emittance Thermal Suite for the Space Technology 5 Microsatellite

The advent of very small satellites, such as nano and microsatellites, logically leads to a requirement for smaller thermal control subsystems. In addition, the thermal control needs of the smaller spacecraft/instrument may well be different from more traditional situations. For example, power for traditional heaters may be very limited or unavailable, mass allocations may be severely limited, and fleets of nano/microsatellites will require a generic thermal design as the cost of unique designs will be prohibitive. Some applications may require significantly increased power levels while others may require extremely low heat loss for extended periods. Small spacecraft will have low thermal capacitance thus subjecting them to large temperature swings when either the heat generation rate changes or the thermal sink temperature changes. This situation, combined with the need for tighter temperature control, will present a challenging situation during transient operation. The use of "off-the-shelf" commercial spacecraft buses for science instruments will also present challenges. Older thermal technology, such as heaters, thermostats, and heat pipes, will almost certainly not be sufficient to meet the requirements of these new spacecraft/instruments. They are generally too heavy, not scalable to very small sizes, and may consume inordinate amounts of power. Hence there is a strong driver to develop new technology to meet these emerging needs. Variable emittance coatings offer an exciting alternative to traditional control methodologies and are one of the technologies that will be flown on Space Technology 5, a mission of three microsatellites designed to validate "enabling" technologies. Several studies have identified variable emittance coatings as applicable to a wide range of spacecraft, and to potentially offer substantial savings in mass and/or power over traditional approaches. This paper discusses the development of the variable emittance thermal suite for ST-5. More specifically, it provides a description of and the infusion and validation plans for the variable emittance coatings.

Douglas, Donya M.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Implications for Core Formation of the Earth from High Pressure-Temperature Au Partitioning Experiments

Siderophile elements in the Earth.s mantle are depleted relative to chondrites. This is most pronounced for the highly siderophile elements (HSEs), which are approximately 400x lower than chondrites. Also remarkable is the relative chondritic abundances of the HSEs. This signature has been interpreted as representing their sequestration into an iron-rich core during the separation of metal from silicate liquids early in the Earth's history, followed by a late addition of chondritic material. Alternative efforts to explain this trace element signature have centered on element partitioning experiments at varying pressures, temperatures, and compositions (P-T-X). However, first results from experiments conducted at 1 bar did not match the observed mantle abundances, which motivated the model described above, a "late veneer" of chondritic material deposited on the earth and mixed into the upper mantle. Alternatively, the mantle trace element signature could be the result of equilibrium partitioning between metal and silicate in the deep mantle, under P-T-X conditions which are not yet completely identified. An earlier model determined that equilibrium between metal and silicate liquids could occur at a depth of approximately 700 km, 27(plus or minus 6) GPa and approximately 2000 (plus or minus 200) C, based on an extrapolation of partitioning data for a variety of moderately siderophile elements obtained at lower pressures and temperatures. Based on Ni-Co partitioning, the magma ocean may have been as deep as 1450 km. At present, only a small range of possible P-T-X trace element partitioning conditions has been explored, necessitating large extrapolations from experimental to mantle conditions for tests of equilibrium models. Our primary objective was to reduce or remove the additional uncertainty introduced by extrapolation by testing the equilibrium core formation hypothesis at P-T-X conditions appropriate to the mantle.

Danielson, L. R.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Business Case Analysis of the Towed Gilder Air Launched System (TGALS)

The Aerospace Corporation developed an integrated Business Case Analysis (BCA) model on behalf of the NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center (AFRC). This model evaluated the potential profitability of the Towed Glider Air Launched System (TGALS) concept, under development at AFRC, identifying potential technical, programmatic, and business decisions that could improve its business viability. The model addressed system performance metrics; development, production and operation cost estimates; market size and product service positioning; pricing alternatives; and market share.

TGALS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Computational Approaches for Li-O2 Battery Design

Threshold energy densities for general aviation electric aircraft are 400 Wh/kg with more ambitious air vehicles having significantly higher requirements. Li-O2 batteries, with the highest theoretical capacity, are one of the few “beyond Li-ion” chemistries that might satisfy the extraordinary specific capacity as well as specific power requirements of electric aircraft. However, side reactions at interfaces, in particular at the cathode, over the charge-discharge cycles result in very short cycle-life and dramatic reduction of capacity. Addressing these issues, in addition to others, are crucial for realizing practical, high performance Li-O2 batteries. In this talk, we discuss atomistic computational work to understand and mitigate some of the issues, including those at interfaces, that affect the Li-O2 electrochemistry. To start, we discuss the deposition mechanisms, both surface and solution based, of Li2O2 and their dependence on external potential. Next, we explore molten salt electrolytes as a stable alternative to organic electrolytes and approaches taken to develop new practical molten salt eutectic mixtures. Finally, we address the issue of reactive carbon-cathodes and possible cathode-candidates that were identified throughput high-throughput computations.

Li-Air battery↗

NASA NTRS2024

Celebrating 10 Years of the Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project and Looking to the Future

The conference clearly demonstrated the increasing interest and growth of the scientific community working on the development and application of sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction since the start of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP)/World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction project in 2013. The conference, which was held at the University of Reading (United Kingdom), was organized into three main themes as briefly summarized below, with eleven invited talks, 74 oral contributed talks, and 101 posters. The conference also included a two-hour breakout session, wherein eight groups discussed the current state and prospect for S2S prediction, and an early career researcher event. A summary of these discussions and recommendations is presented below. The conference web page (https://research.reading.ac.uk/s2s-summit2023/) is archived at the University of Reading. Introductory comments by representatives of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) WWRP and WCRP emphasized the importance of the weather–climate linkage, targeted by S2S forecasts (from 2 weeks to a season ahead), addressing the challenges of creating “end-to-end” forecasts that encompass the entire climate-services chain from the prediction science and forecast, to the development and issuing of forecast products tailored to informing user-decisions. They also emphasized the efficacy of multi-model ensemble efforts and databases to foster collaborations internationally and between operational centres and academia. Although the WWRP/WCRP S2S project comes to an end in 2023, S2S prediction will remain an important focus for WWRP and WCRP. In WWRP, a new project called SAGE (Sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions for Agriculture and Environment) will start in 2024. Another important legacy of the S2S project will be the maintenance of the S2S database (Vitart et al. 2017) and the establishment of a WMO Lead Center for sub-seasonal prediction multi-model ensemble (LC-SSPMME) which will provide real-time multi-model S2S climate information. In two keynote presentations, Prof. Brian Hoskins (University of Reading) and Dr. Gilbert Brunet (Australian Bureau of Meteorology) discussed the potential of S2S predictability and the ongoing journey for understanding and improving these predictions. This conference was a sequel to the International Conference on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (Robertson et al., 2014) which took place in College Park (Maryland, USA) in February 2014 to celebrate the start of the WWRP/WCRP S2S project, and to WCRP and WWRP conferences in Boulder, USA, in 2018 (Merryfield et al., 2020). A significant development compared to the previous S2S conferences was the large number of presentations on research to operation (R2O) and S2S applications and on the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) methods for S2S prediction. Some of these methods provide empirical S2S forecasts which are competitive with state-of-the-art dynamical models. Other presentations demonstrated that AI/ML can provide alternative calibration of dynamical model outputs to traditional methods. Several talks and posters highlighted the increasing use of AI/ML, including deep learning, in S2S forecast post-processing and using AI to identify higher flow-dependent skill. Finally, some presentations demonstrated the value of AI/ML methods for a better understanding of S2S sources of predictability and attribution of extreme events.

S. J. Woolnough↗