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At least 883 records · Page 49
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Ecosystem Controls on Methylmercury Production by Periphyton Biofilms in a Contaminated Stream: Implications for Predictive Modeling

Periphyton biofilms produce a substantial fraction of the overall monomethylmercury (MMHg) flux in East Fork Poplar Creek, an industrially contaminated, freshwater creek in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. We examined periphyton MMHg production across seasons, locations, and light conditions using mercury stable isotopes. Methylation and demethylation rate potentials (km, trans av and kd, trans av, respectively) were calculated using a transient availability kinetic model. Light exposure and season were significant predictors of km, trans av, with greater values in full light exposure and in the summer. Season, light exposure, and location were significant predictors of kd, trans av, which was highest in dark conditions, in the spring, and at the upstream location. Light exposure was the controlling factor for net MMHg production, with positive production for periphyton grown under full light exposure and net demethylation for periphyton grown in the dark. Ambient MMHg and km, trans av were significantly correlated. Transient availability rate potentials were 15 times higher for km and 9 times higher for kd compared to full availability rate potentials (km, full av and kd, full av) calculated at 1 d. No significant model for the prediction of km, full av or kd, full av could be constructed using light, season, and location. In addition, there were no significant differences among treatments for the full availability km, full av, kd, full av, or net MMHg calculated using the full availability rate potentials. km, full av was not correlated with ambient MMHg concentrations. The present results underscore the importance of applying transient availability kinetics to MMHg production data when estimating MMHg production potential and flux.

Schwartz, Grace E.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Differentiation of duodenal gastrointestinal stromal tumors from hypervascular pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors in the pancreatic head using contrast-enhanced computed tomography

Purpose: To determine useful contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CE-CT) features in differentiating duodenal gastrointestinal stromal tumors (duodenal GISTs) from hypervascular pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors in the pancreatic head (pancreatic head NETs). Methods: Seventeen patients with pathologically confirmed duodenal GISTs and 25 with pancreatic NETs underwent preoperative CE-CT. CT image analysis included tumor size, morphology, and contrast enhancement. Receiver operating characteristic curves were performed, and cutoff values were calculated to determine CT findings with high sensitivity and specificity. Results: CT imaging showed duodenal GISTs with higher frequencies of tumor central location close to the duodenum and a predominantly solid tumor type when compared with pancreatic head NETs (p < 0.05 for both). Duodenal GISTs were larger than pancreatic head NETs (3.3 ± 0.9 cm vs. 2.5 ± 1.1 cm, p = 0.03). Duodenal GISTs had significantly lower CT attenuation values (112.9 ± 17.9HU vs. 137.4 ± 32.1HU, p < 0.01) at the arterial phase and higher CT attenuation values at the delayed phase (94.3 ± 7.9HU vs. 84.9 ± 10.4HU, p < 0.01) when compared with pancreatic head NETs. A CT attenuation value of ≤ 135 HU at the arterial phase (30 s) was 76% sensitive, 94.1% specific, and 83.3% accurate for the diagnosis of duodenal GISTs, while a CT attenuation value of ≥ 89.5 HU at the delayed phase (120 s) was 93.3% sensitive, 81.8% specific, and 76.2% accurate for the diagnosis of duodenal GISTs. Conclusion: Tumor central location, size, texture, and contrast enhancement are valuable characteristics for the differentiation between duodenal GISTs and hypervascular pancreatic head NETs during preoperative examination.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Outcomes After Transarterial Embolization of Neuroendocrine Tumor Liver Metastases Using Spherical Particles of Different Sizes

Purpose: To evaluate initial response and overall survival of neuroendocrine tumor (NET) liver metastases initially treated with transarterial embolization (TAE) using spherical particles of different sizes. Methods: A single-institution retrospective review was performed of 160 patients with NET liver metastases initially treated with TAE using < 100 µm (n = 77) or only ≥ 100 µm (n = 83) spherical particles. For each patient, we evaluated: initial response by mRECIST, time to progression, overall survival, complications, primary site, tumor grade and degree of differentiation, volume of liver disease, extrahepatic disease, NET-related symptoms, comorbidities, Child–Pugh score, performance status, lobar versus selective embolization, and arteriovenous shunting. Results: Initial response was higher for TAE using particles < 100 versus TAE using only particles ≥ 100 μm (64 vs 42%, p = 0.007). Multivariate logistic regression showed that use of particles < 100 μm and liver < 50% replaced with tumor were independent predictors of a better initial response rate. There was no difference in major or minor complications between the two particle size groups. Median overall survival after TAE was 55 months for well- to moderately differentiated NET and 13 months for poorly differentiated or undifferentiated NET. There was no significant difference in survival between TAE patients treated with < 100 versus only ≥ 100-μm particles. Conclusion: NET patients treated with TAE using particles < 100 μm had better initial response, but the same overall survival, compared to TAE using only particles ≥ 100 μm.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2019

On a Question About Generalized Congruence Subgroups. I

A set of additive subgroups σ = (σ{sub ij}), 1 ≤ i, j ≤ n, of a field (or ring) K is called a net of order n over K if σ{sub ir}σ{sub rj} ⊆ σ{sub ij} for all values of the indices i, r, j. The same system, but without diagonal, is called an elementary net. A full or elementary net σ = (σ{sub ij}) is said to be irreducible if all the additive subgroups σ{sub ij} are different from zero. An elementary net σ is closed if the subgroup E(σ) does not contain new elementary transvections. The present paper is related to a question posed by Y. N. Nuzhin in connection with V. M. Levchuk’s question No. 15.46 from the Kourovka notebook about the admissibility (closure) of elementary net (carpet) σ = (σ{sub ij}) over a field K. Let J be an arbitrary subset of {1, . . . , n}, n ≥ 3, and the cardinality m of J satisfies the condition 2 ≤ m ≤ n − 1. Let R be a commutative integral domain (non-field) with identity, and let K be the quotient field of R. An example of a net σ = (σ{sub ij}) of order n over K, for which the group E(σ) ∩ 〈t{sub ij}(K) : i, j ∈ J〉 is not contained in the group 〈t{sub ij}(σ{sub ij}) : i, j ∈ J〉, is constructed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2011

EVOLUTION OF CURRENTS OF OPPOSITE SIGNS IN THE FLARE-PRODUCTIVE SOLAR ACTIVE REGION NOAA 10930

Analysis of a time series of high spatial resolution vector magnetograms of the active region NOAA 10930 available from the Solar Optical Telescope SpectroPolarimeter on board Hinode revealed that there is a mixture of upward and downward currents in the two footpoints of an emerging flux rope. The flux emergence rate is almost the same in both the polarities. We observe that along with an increase in magnetic flux, the net current in each polarity increases initially for about three days after which it decreases. This net current is characterized by having exactly opposite signs in each polarity while its magnitude remains almost the same most of the time. The decrease of the net current in both the polarities is due to the increase of current having a sign opposite to that of the net current. The dominant current, with the same sign as the net current, is seen to increase first and then decreases during the major X-class flares. Evolution of non-dominant current appears to be a necessary condition for flare initiation. The above observations can be plausibly explained in terms of the superposition of two different force-free states resulting in a non-zero Lorentz force in the corona. This Lorentz force then pushes the coronal plasma and might facilitate the magnetic reconnection required for flares. Also, the evolution of the net current is found to follow the evolution of magnetic shear at the polarity inversion line.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

LOCAL STUDY OF ACCRETION DISKS WITH A STRONG VERTICAL MAGNETIC FIELD: MAGNETOROTATIONAL INSTABILITY AND DISK OUTFLOW

We perform three-dimensional, vertically-stratified, local shearing-box ideal MHD simulations of the magnetorotational instability (MRI) that include a net vertical magnetic flux, which is characterized by midplane plasma {beta}{sub 0} (ratio of gas to magnetic pressure). We have considered {beta}{sub 0} = 10{sup 2}, 10{sup 3}, and 10{sup 4}, and in the first two cases the most unstable linear MRI modes are well resolved in the simulations. We find that the behavior of the MRI turbulence strongly depends on {beta}{sub 0}: the radial transport of angular momentum increases with net vertical flux, achieving {alpha} {approx} 0.08 for {beta} = 10{sup 4} and {alpha} {approx}> 1.0 for {beta}{sub 0} = 100, where {alpha} is the height-integrated and mass-weighted Shakura-Sunyaev parameter. A critical value lies at {beta}{sub 0} {approx} 10{sup 3}: for {beta}{sub 0} {approx}> 10{sup 3}, the disk consists of a gas pressure dominated midplane and a magnetically dominated corona. The turbulent strength increases with net flux, and angular momentum transport is dominated by turbulent fluctuations. The magnetic dynamo that leads to cyclic flips of large-scale fields still exists, but becomes more sporadic as net flux increases. For {beta}{sub 0} {approx}< 10{sup 3}, the entire disk becomes magnetically dominated. The turbulent strength saturates, and the magnetic dynamo is fully quenched. Stronger large-scale fields are generated with increasing net flux, which dominates angular momentum transport. A strong outflow is launched from the disk by the magnetocentrifugal mechanism, and the mass flux increases linearly with net vertical flux and shows sign of saturation at {beta}{sub 0} {approx}< 10{sup 2}. However, the outflow is unlikely to be directly connected to a global wind: for {beta}{sub 0} {approx}> 10{sup 3}, the large-scale field has no permanent bending direction due to dynamo activities, while for {beta}{sub 0} {approx}< 10{sup 3}, the outflows from the top and bottom sides of the disk bend towards opposite directions, inconsistent with a physical disk wind geometry. Global simulations are needed to address the fate of the outflow.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Plasma–surface interaction in the stellarator W7-X: conclusions drawn from operation with graphite plasma-facing components

W7-X completed its plasma operation in hydrogen with island divertor and inertially cooled test divertor unit (TDU) made of graphite. A substantial set of plasma-facing components (PFCs), including in particular marker target elements, were extracted from the W7-X vessel and analysed post-mortem. The analysis provided key information about underlying plasma–surface interactions (PSI) processes, namely erosion, transport, and deposition as well as fuel retention in the graphite components. The net carbon (C) erosion and deposition distribution on the horizontal target (HT) and vertical target (VT) plates were quantified and related to the plasma time in standard divertor configuration with edge transform ι = 5/5, the dominant magnetic configuration of the two operational phases (OP) with TDU. The operation resulted in integrated high net C erosion rate of 2.8 mg s -1 in OP1.2B over 4809 plasma seconds. Boronisations reduced the net erosion on the HT by about a factor 5.4 with respect to OP1.2A owing to the suppression of oxygen (O). In the case of the VT, high peak net C erosion of 11μm at the strike line was measured during OP1.2B which converts to 2.5 nm s -1 or 1.4 mg s -1 when related to the exposed area of the target plate and the operational time in standard divertor configuration. PSI modelling with ERO2.0 and WallDYN-3D is applied in an interpretative manner and reproduces the net C erosion and deposition pattern at the target plates determined by different post-mortem analysis techniques. This includes also the 13 C tracer deposition from the last experiment of OP1.2B with local 13 CH 4 injection through a magnetic island in one half module. The experimental findings are used to predict the C erosion, transport, and deposition in the next campaigns aiming in long-pulse operation up to 1800 s and utilising the actively cooled carbon-fibre composite (CFC) divertor currently being installed. The CFC divertor has the same geometrical design as the TDU and extrapolation depends mainly on the applied plasma boundary. Extrapolation from campaign averaged information obtained in OP1.2B reveals a net erosion of 7.6 g per 1800 s for a typical W7-X attached divertor plasma in hydrogen.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced pedestal transport driven by edge collisionality on Alcator C-Mod and its role in regulating H-mode pedestal gradients

Experimental measurements of plasma and neutral profiles across the pedestal are used in conjunction with 2D edge modeling to examine pedestal stiffness in Alcator C-Mod H-mode plasmas. Enhanced D α experiments on Alcator C-Mod observed pedestal degradation and loss in confinement below a critical value of net power crossing the separatrix, P net = $P^{crit}_{net}$ ≈ 2.3 MW, in the absence of any external fueling. New analysis of ionization and particle flux profiles reveal saturation of the pedestal electron density, $n^{ped}_{e}$, despite continuous increases in ionization throughout the pedestal, inversely related to P net . A limi to the pedestal $\nabla$n e emerges as the particle flux, Γ D , continues to grow, implying increases in the effective particle diffusivity, D eff . This is well-correlated with the separatrix collisionality, $v^*_{sep}$ and a turbulence control parameter, α t , implying a possible transition in type of turbulence. The transition is well correlated with the experimentally observed value of $P^{crit}_{net}$. SOLPS-ITER modeling is performed for select discharges from the power scan, constrained with experimental electron and neutral densities, measured at the outer midpane. The modeling confirms general growth in D eff , consistent with experimental findings, and additionally suggests even larger growth in Χ e at the same $P^{crit}_{net}$.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

The economic and environmental costs and benefits of the renewable fuel standard

Abstract Mandates, like the renewable fuel standard (RFS), for biofuels from corn and cellulosic feedstocks, impact the environment in multiple ways by affecting land use, nitrogen (N)-leakage, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We analyze the differing trade-offs these different types of biofuels offer among these multi-dimensional environmental effects and convert them to a monetized value of environmental damages (or benefits) that can be compared with the economic costs of extending these mandates over the 2016–2030 period. The discounted values of cumulative net benefits (or costs) are then compared to those with a counterfactual level of biofuels that would have been produced in the absence of the RFS over this period. We find that maintaining the corn ethanol mandate at 56 billion l till 2030 will lead to a discounted cumulative value of an economic cost of $199 billion over the 2016–2030 period compared to the counterfactual scenario; this includes $109 billion of economic costs and $85 billion of net monetized environmental damages. The additional implementation of a cellulosic biofuel mandate for 60 billion l by 2030 will increase this economic cost by $69 billion which will be partly offset by the net discounted monetized value of environmental benefits of $20 billion, resulting in a net cost of $49 billion over the 2016–2030 period. We explore the sensitivity of these net (economic and environmental) costs to alternative values of the social costs of carbon and nitrogen and other technological and market parameters. We find that, unlike corn ethanol, cellulosic biofuels can result in positive net benefits if the monetary benefits of GHG mitigation are valued high and those of N-damages are not very high.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Rapidly changing high-latitude seasonality: implications for the 21st century carbon cycle in Alaska

Seasonal variations in high-latitude terrestrial carbon (C) fluxes are predominantly driven by air temperature and radiation. At present, high-latitude net C uptake is largest during the summer. Recent observations and modeling studies have demonstrated that ongoing and projected climate change will increase plant productivity, microbial respiration, and growing season lengths at high-latitudes, but impacts on high-latitude C cycle seasonality (and potential feedbacks to the climate system) remain uncertain. Here we use ecosys, a well-tested and process-rich mechanistic ecosystem model that we evaluate further in this study, to explore how climate warming under an RCP8.5 scenario will shift C cycle seasonality in Alaska throughout the 21st century. The model successfully reproduced recently reported large high-latitude C losses during the fall and winter and yet still predicts a high-latitude C sink, pointing to a resolution of the current conflict between process-model and observation-based estimates of high-latitude C balance. We find that warming will result in surprisingly large changes in net ecosystem exchange (NEE; defined as negative for uptake) seasonality, with spring net C uptake overtaking summer net C uptake by year 2100. This shift is driven by a factor of 3 relaxation of spring temperature limitation to plant productivity that results in earlier C uptake and a corresponding increase in magnitude of spring NEE from –19 to –144 gC m –2 season –1 by the end of the century. Although a similar relaxation of temperature limitation will occur in the fall, radiation limitation during those months will limit increases in C fixation. Additionally, warmer soil temperatures and increased carbon inputs from plants lead to combined fall and winter C losses (163 gC m –2 ) that are larger than summer net uptake (123 gC m –2 season –1 ) by year 2100. However, this increase in microbial activity leads to more rapid N cycling and increased plant N uptake during the fall and winter months that supports large increases in spring NPP. Due to the large increases in spring net C uptake, the high-latitude atmospheric C sink is projected to sustain throughout this century. Our analysis disentangles the effects of key environmental drivers of high-latitude seasonal C balances as climate changes over the 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Role of baryon number conservation in measurements of fluctuations

Here, I discuss the role and impact of net-baryon number conservation in measurements of net-proton fluctuations in heavy-ion collisions. I show that the magnitude of the fluctuations is entirely determined by the strength of two particle correlations. At LHC and top RHIC energy, this implies the fluctuations are proportional to the integral of the balance function (BF), B pp¯ of protons and antiprotons, while in the context of the RHIC beam energy scan (BES), one must also account for correlations of stopped protons. The integral of B pp¯ measured in a 4π detector depends on the relative cross sections of processes yielding pp¯ and those balancing the proton baryon number via the production of other antibaryons. The accepted integral of B pp¯ further depends on the shape and width of the BF relative to the width of the acceptance. The magnitude of the measured second-order cumulant of net-proton fluctuations thus has much less to do with QCD susceptibilities than with the creation/transport of baryons and antibaryons in heavy-ion collisions, and most particularly the impact of radial flow on the width of the BF. I thus advocate that net-proton fluctuations should be studied by means of differential BF measurements rather than with integral correlators. I also derive an expression of net-baryon fluctuations in terms of integrals of balance functions of identified baryon pairs and argue that measurements of such balance functions would enable a better understanding of the collision system expansion dynamics, the hadronization chemistry, and an experimental assessment of the strength of net-baryon fluctuations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Pyrolyzer Assisted Vapor Transport Deposition of Antimony-Doped Cadmium Telluride

In this study, we developed a new method for in situ Sb doping of CdTe thin films combining vapor transport deposition with a Group V pyrolyzer to address Sb doping concentration and doping efficiency. The Sb doped CdSeTe (CdSeTe:Sb) films were deposited in solar cell structures under variations of Sb dopant source heater, vapor pyrolyzer temperature, and Cd vapor excess. Results indicate that although these parameters do not affect the CdTe morphology or crystal structure, they critically influence doping efficiency and trap concentration. Capacitance-voltage measurements show that a higher dopant heater (TD) or pyrolyzer (TP) temperature leads to higher net carrier concentration, achieving a net carrier concentration of 1016 cm-3 and 20% doping efficiency with a TD/TP combination of 600 degrees C/1100 degrees C. By tuning the Cd/Sb flux ratio during CdSeTe:Sb deposition, the lowest defect concentration is achieved at Cd/Sb of 1.4:1, which produced the best VOC CdSeTe:Sb cell. This demonstrates a path to produce high net carrier concentration polycrystalline CdTe thin film with a low concentration of dopant-induced defects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nitrogen Deposition Weakens Soil Carbon Control of Nitrogen Dynamics Across the Contiguous United States

ABSTRACT Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition is unequally distributed across space and time, with inputs to terrestrial ecosystems impacted by industry regulations and variations in human activity. Soil carbon (C) content normally controls the fraction of mineralized N that is nitrified ( ƒ nitrified ), affecting N bioavailability for plants and microbes. However, it is unknown whether N deposition has modified the relationships among soil C, net N mineralization, and net nitrification. To test whether N deposition alters the relationship between soil C and net N transformations, we collected soils from coniferous and deciduous forests, grasslands, and residential yards in 14 regions across the contiguous United States that vary in N deposition rates. We quantified rates of net nitrification and N mineralization, soil chemistry (soil C, N, and pH), and microbial biomass and function (as beta‐glucosidase (BG) and N ‐acetylglucosaminidase (NAG) activity) across these regions. Following expectations, soil C was a driver of ƒ nitrified across regions, whereby increasing soil C resulted in a decline in net nitrification and ƒ nitrified . The ƒ nitrified value increased with lower microbial enzymatic investment in N acquisition (increasing BG:NAG ratio) and lower active microbial biomass, providing some evidence that heterotrophic microbial N demand controls the ammonium pool for nitrifiers. However, higher total N deposition increased ƒ nitrified , including for high soil C sites predicted to have low ƒ nitrified , which decreased the role of soil C as a predictor of ƒ nitrified . Notably, the drop in contemporary atmospheric N deposition rates during the 2020 COVID‐19 pandemic did not weaken the effect of N deposition on relationships between soil C and ƒ nitrified . Our results suggest that N deposition can disrupt the relationship between soil C and net N transformations, with this change potentially explained by weaker microbial competition for N. Therefore, past N inputs and soil C should be used together to predict N dynamics across terrestrial ecosystems.

Nieland, Matthew A. [Stockbridge School of Agricul↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-T-637: Age and Batch Dependence of Gafchromic EBT Films in Photon and Proton Beam Dosimetry

Purpose: Gafchrmoic films have undergone significant changes in characteristic over time reflected by HS, EBT, EBT2, EBT3 name. Interand intra- EBT film variability have been studied and found to be significant. However, age and lot/batch type have not been studied in various radiation beams that are investigated in this study. Methods: Thirteen sets of films; 2 EBT, 6 EBT2 and 5 EBT3 films with different lot number and expiration date were acquired. Films were cut longitudinally in 3 cm width and sandwiched between two solid water slabs that were placed in a water phantom to eliminate air gap. Each set of films were irradiated longitudinally at dmax with 6 and 15 MV photon beams as well as in reference condition (16 cm range, 10 cm SOBP) in our uniform scanning proton beam. Films were scanned using an Epson flatbed scanner (ES-10000G) after 48 hours to achieve full polymerization. The profiles were compared with the depth-dose measured with ionization chamber and net optical density (net OD) were calculated. Results: The net OD versus dose for EBT, EBT2 and EBT3 films of different age showed similar trend but with different slope. Even after calibration, differences are clearly visible in net OD in proton and photon beams. A net OD difference of nearly 0.5 is observed in photon but this was limited to 0.2–0.3 in proton beam. This relates to 20% and 15% dosimetric difference in photon and proton beam respectively over age and type of film. Conclusion: Net OD related to dose is dependent on the age and lot of the film in both photon and proton beams. It is concluded that before any set of film is used, a calibration film should be used for a meaningful dosimetry. The expired films showed larger OD variation compared to unexpired films.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Dosimetric results in treatments of neuroblastoma and neuroendocrine tumors with {sup 131}I-metaiodobenzylguanidine with implications for the activity to administer

Purpose: The aim was to investigate whole-body and red marrow absorbed doses in treatments of neuroblastoma (NB) and adult neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) with {sup 131}I-metaiodobenzylguanidine and to propose a simple method for determining the activity to administer when dosimetric data for the individual patient are not available. Methods: Nine NB patients and six NET patients were included, giving in total 19 treatments as four patients were treated twice. Whole-body absorbed doses were determined from dose-rate measurements and planar gamma-camera imaging. For six NB and five NET treatments, red marrow absorbed doses were also determined using the blood-based method. Results: Dosimetric data from repeated administrations in the same patient were consistent. In groups of NB and NET patients, similar whole-body residence times were obtained, implying that whole-body absorbed dose per unit of administered activity could be reasonably well described as a power function of the patient mass. For NB, this functional form was found to be consistent with dosimetric data from previously published studies. The whole-body to red marrow absorbed dose ratio was similar among patients, with values of 1.4 ± 0.6–1.7 ± 0.7 (1 standard deviation) in NB treatments and between 1.5 ± 0.6 and 1.7 ± 0.7 (1 standard deviation) in NET treatments. Conclusions: The consistency of dosimetric results between administrations for the same patient supports prescription of the activity based on dosimetry performed in pretreatment studies, or during the first administration in a fractionated schedule. The expressions obtained for whole-body absorbed doses per unit of administered activity as a function of patient mass for NB and NET treatments are believed to be a useful tool to estimate the activity to administer at the stage when the individual patient biokinetics has not yet been measured.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cost effectiveness of preemptive school closures to mitigate pandemic influenza outbreaks of differing severity in the United States

Background: Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may be considered as part of national pandemic preparedness as a first line defense against influenza pandemics. Preemptive school closures (PSCs) are an NPI reserved for severe pandemics and are highly effective in slowing influenza spread but have unintended consequences. Methods: We used results of simulated PSC impacts for a 1957-like pandemic (i.e., an influenza pandemic with a high case fatality rate) to estimate population health impacts and quantify PSC costs at the national level using three geographical scales, four closure durations, and three dismissal decision criteria (i.e., the number of cases detected to trigger closures). At the Chicago regional level, we also used results from simulated 1957-like, 1968-like, and 2009-like pandemics. Our net estimated economic impacts resulted from educational productivity costs plus loss of income associated with providing childcare during closures after netting out productivity gains from averted influenza illness based on the number of cases and deaths for each mitigation strategy. Results: For the 1957-like, national-level model, estimated net PSC costs and averted cases ranged from $\$7.5$ billion (2016 USD) averting 14.5 million cases for two-week, community-level closures to $\$97$ billion averting 47 million cases for 12-week, county-level closures. We found that 2-week school-by-school PSCs had the lowest cost per discounted life-year gained compared to county-wide or school district–wide closures for both the national and Chicago regional-level analyses of all pandemics. The feasibility of spatiotemporally precise triggering is questionable for most locales. Theoretically, this would be an attractive early option to allow more time to assess transmissibility and severity of a novel influenza virus. However, we also found that county-wide PSCs of longer durations (8 to 12 weeks) could avert the most cases (31–47 million) and deaths (105,000–156,000); however, the net cost would be considerably greater ($\$88$-$\$103$ billion net of averted illness costs) for the national-level, 1957-like analysis. Conclusions: We found that the net costs per death averted ($\$180,000$-$\$4.2$ million) for the national-level, 1957-like scenarios were generally less than the range of values recommended for regulatory impact analyses ($\$4.6$ to 15.0 million). This suggests that the economic benefits of national-level PSC strategies could exceed the costs of these interventions during future pandemics with highly transmissible strains with high case fatality rates. In contrast, the PSC outcomes for regional models of the 1968-like and 2009-like pandemics were less likely to be cost effective; more targeted and shorter duration closures would be recommended for these pandemics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Neoadjuvant Endocrine Therapy Versus Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Node-Positive Invasive Lobular Carcinoma

Background: Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) is often recommended for patients with node-positive invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC) despite unclear benefit in this largely hormone receptor-positive (HR+) group. We sought to compare overall survival (OS) between patients with node-positive ILC who received neoadjuvant endocrine therapy (NET) and those who received NACT. Methods: Women with cT1–4c, cN1–3 HR+ ILC in the National Cancer Data Base (2004–2014) who underwent surgery following neoadjuvant therapy were identified. Kaplan–Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards modeling were used to estimate unadjusted and adjusted overall survival (OS), respectively. Results: Of the 5942 patients in the cohort, 855 received NET and 5087 received NACT. NET recipients were older (70 vs. 54 years) and had more comorbidities (Charlson–Deyo score ≥ 1: 21.1% vs. 11.5%), lower cT classification (cT3–4: 44.2% vs. 51.0%), lower rates of mastectomy (72.5% vs. 82.2%), lower rates of pathologic complete response (0% vs. 2.5%), and lower rates of postlumpectomy (73.2% vs. 91.0%) and postmastectomy (60.0% vs. 80.8%) radiation versus NACT recipients (all p < 0.001). NACT recipients had higher unadjusted 10-year OS versus NET recipients (57.9% vs. 36.0%), but after adjustment, there was no significant difference in OS between the two groups (p = 0.10). Conclusions: Patients with node-positive ILC who received NET presented with smaller tumors, older age, and greater burden of comorbidities versus NACT recipients but had similar adjusted OS. While there is evidence from clinical trials supporting efficacy of NET in HR+ breast cancer, our findings suggest the need for further, histology-specific investigation regarding the optimal inclusion and sequence of endocrine therapy and chemotherapy in ILC.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2013

Final scientific report for DOE award title: Improving the Representation of Ice Sedimentation Rates in Global Climate Models

It is well known that cirrus clouds play a major role in regulating the earth’s climate, but the details of how this works are just beginning to be understood. This project targeted the main property of cirrus clouds that influence climate processes; the ice fall speed. That is, this project improves the representation of the mass-weighted ice particle fall velocity, V m , in climate models, used to predict future climate on global and regional scales. Prior to 2007, the dominant sizes of ice particles in cirrus clouds were poorly understood, making it virtually impossible to predict how cirrus clouds interact with sunlight and thermal radiation. Due to several studies investigating the performance of optical probes used to measure the ice particle size distribution (PSD), as well as the remote sensing results from our last ARM project, it is now well established that the anomalously high concentrations of small ice crystals often reported prior to 2007 were measurement artifacts. Advances in the design and data processing of optical probes have greatly reduced these ice artifacts that resulted from the shattering of ice particles on the probe tips and/or inlet tube, and PSD measurements from one of these improved probes (the 2-dimensional Stereo or 2D-S probe) are utilized in this project to parameterize V m for climate models. Our original plan in the proposal was to parameterize the ice PSD (in terms of temperature and ice water content) and ice particle mass and projected area (in terms of mass- and area-dimensional power laws or m-D/A-D expressions) since these are the microphysical properties that determine V m , and then proceed to calculate V m from these parameterized properties. But the 2D-S probe directly measures ice particle projected area and indirectly estimates ice particle mass for each size bin. It soon became apparent that the original plan would introduce more uncertainty in the V m calculations than simply using the 2D-S measurements to directly calculate V m . By calculating V m directly from the measured PSD, ice particle projected area and estimated mass, more accurate estimates of V m are obtained. These V m values were then parameterized for climate models by relating them to (1) sampling temperature and ice water content (IWC) and (2) the effective diameter (D e ) of the ice PSD. Parameterization (1) is appropriate for climate models having single-moment microphysical schemes whereas (2) is appropriate for double-moment microphysical schemes and yields more accurate V m estimates. These parameterizations were developed for tropical cirrus clouds, Arctic cirrus, mid-latitude synoptic cirrus and mid-latitude anvil cirrus clouds based on field campaigns in these regions. An important but unexpected result of this research was the discovery of microphysical evidence indicating the mechanisms by which ice crystals are produced in cirrus clouds. This evidence, derived from PSD measurements, indicates that homogeneous freezing ice nucleation dominates in mid-latitude synoptic cirrus clouds, whereas heterogeneous ice nucleation processes dominate in mid-latitude anvil cirrus. Based on these findings, D e was parameterized in terms of temperature (T) for conditions dominated by (1) homo- and (2) heterogeneous ice nucleation. From this, an experiment was designed for global climate models (GCMs). The net radiative forcing from cirrus clouds may be affected by the means ice is produced (homo- or heterogeneously), and this net forcing contributes to climate sensitivity (i.e. the change in mean global surface temperature resulting from a doubling of CO 2 ). The objective of this GCM experiment was to determine how a change in ice nucleation mode affects the predicted global radiation balance. In the first simulation (Run 1), the D e -T relationship for homogeneous nucleation is used at all latitudes, while in the second simulation (Run 2), the D e -T relationship for heterogeneous nucleation is used at all latitudes. For both runs, V m is calculated from D e . Two GCMs were used; the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) and a European GCM known as ECHAM5 (thanks to our European colleagues who collaborated with us). Similar results were obtained from both GCMs in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, with a net cooling of ~ 1.0 W m -2 due to heterogeneous nucleation, relative to Run 1. The mean global net cooling was 2.4 W m -2 for the ECHAM5 GCM while CAM5 produced a mean global net cooling of about 0.8 W m -2 . This dependence of the radiation balance on nucleation mode is substantial when one considers the direct radiative forcing from a CO 2 doubling is 4 W m -2 . The differences between GCMs in mean global net cooling estimates may demonstrate a need for improving the representation of cirrus clouds in GCMs, including the coupling between microphysical and radiative properties. Unfortunately, after completing this GCM experiment, we learned from the company that provided the 2D-S microphysical data that the data was corrupted due to a computer program coding problem. Therefore the microphysical data had to be reprocessed and reanalyzed, and the GCM experiments were redone under our current ASR project but using an improved experimental design.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗