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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2009

The Dynamics and Structure of Titan's Middle Atmosphere

Titan, after Venus, is the second example in the solar system of an atmosphere with a global cyclostrophic circulation. The origin and maintenance of these superrotating atmospheres is not well understood, but Titan has a strong seasonal modulation in the middle atmosphere, and the seasonal changes in the winds may offer clues. The pole in winter and early spring is characterized by temperatures 20-30 K cooler at 100-170 km than those at low latitudes, and strong circumpolar winds as high as 190 m/s at 200-250 km. At these levels the polar region is characterized by enhanced concentrations of several organic gases, and also detectable condensates. All this suggests that the polar vortex provides a mixing barrier between winter polar and lower-latitude air masses, analogous to the winter polar vortices on Earth. Because the concentrations of organic gases increase with altitude in the middle atmosphere, the observed enhancements suggest subsidence over the winter pole. Consistent with this are the observed temperatures approx.200 K at the winter-polar stratopause (280 km), making it the warmest part of the atmosphere. The warm stratopause likely results from adiabatic heating associated with the subsidence. Recent observations in late northern winter and early spring indicate that the warm anomaly at the winter-polar stratopause is weakening, and the strong zonal winds are weakening. Curiously, the stratospheric zonal winds and temperatures in both hemispheres are symmetric about a pole that is offset from the surface pole by 4 degrees. The cause of this is not well understood, but it may reflect the response of a cyclostrophic circulation to the offset between the equator, where the distance to the rotation axis is greatest, and the seasonally varying subsolar latitude.

Flasar, F. Michael↗
NASA NTRS2015

Causes of Interannual to Decadal Variability of Gila River Streamflow over the Past Century

Study region: The Gila River, New Mexico, is characterized by two peaks in streamflow: one in the winter-spring (December-May), and summer (August-September). The region is influenced both by Pacific SST variability as well as the North American Monsoon. Study focus: The mechanisms responsible for the variability of the winter-spring and summer streamflow peaks are investigated by correlation of streamflow with precipitation and sea surface temperature for 1928-2012. Decadal variability in the flow record is examined for a longer term perspective on Gila River streamflow using tree ring-based reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). New hydrological insights for the region: Results indicate a strong influence of winter-spring precipitation and Pacific SST anomalies on the winter-spring streamflow, with El Nino conditions in the Pacific causing increased precipitation and streamflow. Decadal Pacific variability helps explain the transition from high winter flow in the late 20th century to lower flows in the most recent decade. The summer streamflow has a somewhat weaker correlation with precipitation and Pacific SST than the winter-spring streamflow. Its variability is more likely influenced by local North American Monsoon precipitation variability. PDSI and SPI reconstructions indicate much more severe and extended periods of droughts and pluvials in past centuries as well as periods of concurrent winter and summer drought.

drought↗
NASA NTRS2015

Causes of the 2011-14 California Drought

The causes of the California drought during November-April winters of 2011/12-2013/14 are analyzed using observations and ensemble simulations with seven atmosphere models forced by observed SSTs. Historically, dry California winters are most commonly associated with a ridge off the west coast but no obvious SST forcing. Wet winters are most commonly associated with a trough off the west coast and an El Nino event. These attributes of dry and wet winters are captured by many of the seven models. According to the models, SST forcing can explain up to a third of California winter precipitation variance. SST forcing was key to sustaining a high pressure ridge over the west coast and suppressing precipitation during the three winters. In 2011/12 this was a response to a La Nina event, whereas in 2012/13 and 2013/14 it appears related to a warm west-cool east tropical Pacific SST pattern. All models contain a mode of variability linking such tropical Pacific SST anomalies to a wave train with a ridge off the North American west coast. This mode explains less variance than ENSO and Pacific decadal variability, and its importance in 2012/13 and 2013/14 was unusual. The models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) project rising greenhouse gases to cause changes in California all-winter precipitation that are very small compared to recent drought anomalies. However, a long-term warming trend likely contributed to surface moisture deficits during the drought. As such, the precipitation deficit during the drought was dominated by natural variability, a conclusion framed by discussion of differences between observed and modeled tropical SST trends.

California Drought↗
DOE OSTI2020

Soil Microbes Trade-Off Biogeochemical Cycling for Stress Tolerance Traits in Response to Year-Round Climate Change

Winter air temperatures are rising faster than summer air temperatures in high-latitude forests, increasing the frequency of soil freeze/thaw events in winter. To determine how climate warming and soil freeze/thaw cycles affect soil microbial communities and the ecosystem processes they drive, we leveraged the Climate Change across Seasons Experiment (CCASE) at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in the northeastern United States, where replicate field plots receive one of three climate treatments: warming (+5°C above ambient in the growing season), warming in the growing season + winter freeze/thaw cycles (+5°C above ambient +4 freeze/thaw cycles during winter), and no treatment. Soil samples were taken from plots at six time points throughout the growing season and subjected to amplicon (rDNA) and metagenome sequencing. We found that soil fungal and bacterial community composition were affected by changes in soil temperature, where the taxonomic composition of microbial communities shifted more with the combination of growing-season warming and increased frequency of soil freeze/thaw cycles in winter than with warming alone. Warming increased the relative abundance of brown rot fungi and plant pathogens but decreased that of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi, all of which recovered under combined growing-season warming and soil freeze/thaw cycles in winter. The abundance of animal parasites increased significantly under combined warming and freeze/thaw cycles. We also found that warming and soil freeze/thaw cycles suppressed bacterial taxa with the genetic potential for carbon (i.e., cellulose) decomposition and soil nitrogen cycling, such as N fixation and the final steps of denitrification. These new soil communities had higher genetic capacity for stress tolerance and lower genetic capacity to grow or reproduce, relative to the communities exposed to warming in the growing season alone. Our observations suggest that initial suppression of biogeochemical cycling with year-round climate change may be linked to the emergence of taxa that trade-off growth for stress tolerance traits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A method for assessing economic, environmental, and reliability tradeoffs of interregional transmission connecting ERCOT (the Texas grid) to the eastern and western grids

Reliable development of the power grid is an evolving concern for humanity due to extreme weather that frequently threatens power sector infrastructure. The state of Texas is a uniquely structured testbed for grid planners to study when looking for solutions to development, innovation, and overcoming such challenges. Because of its size and islanded structure, Texas is small enough to model, but big enough to matter. Texas is a global leader in energy production, energy consumption, and maintains an unusually diverse fuel mix. In addition, the state has experienced winter freezes, heat waves, wind storms, droughts and floods that have threatened power sector infrastructure or caused recent blackouts and calls for demand side conservation. One of the most devastating of these events was the North American winter storm, dubbed “Winter Storm Uri” by the Weather Channel, that froze the region in February 2021 and led to an extended power outage event that put the majority of Texan residents in darkness for days. While preparing to avoid such outage events in the future, various tools have been proposed to improve grid reliability, including energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed energy resources. An additional option would be to develop interregional transmission that connects the Texas grid to other national grids. To assess the merits of this idea, we developed a novel, universally-applicable and internationally-relevant framework to study how the Texas grid would evolve alongside access to various interregional ties. This method allows us to stress the synthetic grid structure and analyze how it would respond to the shock of a simulated winter storm event. Our method leverages open-source modeling tools, such as PowerGenome, pyGRETA, and GenX to synthesize unique zonal grid data, construct a consolidated network of model regions, and simulate different developmental pathways of capacity expansion and operational dispatch. We demonstrate our method with an analysis connecting the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the grid that serves most of Texas, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), the grid that serves the western half of the contiguous U.S., and the Eastern Interconnect, the grid that serves the eastern half of the contiguous U.S. Our results indicate that the cost-optimal capacity of interregional transmission connecting the ERCOT grid to other grids lies between 9–13 GW assuming baseline conditions. Building this amount of connecting capacity in one or multiple directions lowers the costs and emissions of development and operation by up to $16 billion and 257 million metric tonnes (MMT) respectively. Additionally, our results show that the interregional connections between ERCOT and other national grids reduce the amount of total load shed required through mild winter storm events. However, our results also show that there is a threshold of very extreme winter storm conditions, spanning multiple service areas, above which the connections exacerbate resource adequacy problems. Therefore, the results indicate that the connections need to be carefully planned alongside the rest of the grid infrastructure to avoid over-reliance on specific resources or technology options.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Museomics Dissects the Genetic Basis for Adaptive Seasonal Coloration in the Least Weasel

Abstract Dissecting the link between genetic variation and adaptive phenotypes provides outstanding opportunities to understand fundamental evolutionary processes. Here, we use a museomics approach to investigate the genetic basis and evolution of winter coat coloration morphs in least weasels (Mustela nivalis), a repeated adaptation for camouflage in mammals with seasonal pelage color moults across regions with varying winter snow. Whole-genome sequence data were obtained from biological collections and mapped onto a newly assembled reference genome for the species. Sampling represented two replicate transition zones between nivalis and vulgaris coloration morphs in Europe, which typically develop white or brown winter coats, respectively. Population analyses showed that the morph distribution across transition zones is not a by-product of historical structure. Association scans linked a 200-kb genomic region to coloration morph, which was validated by genotyping museum specimens from intermorph experimental crosses. Genotyping the wild populations narrowed down the association to pigmentation gene MC1R and pinpointed a candidate amino acid change cosegregating with coloration morph. This polymorphism replaces an ancestral leucine residue by lysine at the start of the first extracellular loop of the protein in the vulgaris morph. A selective sweep signature overlapped the association region in vulgaris, suggesting that past adaptation favored winter-brown morphs and can anchor future adaptive responses to decreasing winter snow. Using biological collections as valuable resources to study natural adaptations, our study showed a new evolutionary route generating winter color variation in mammals and that seasonal camouflage can be modulated by changes at single key genes.

Miranda, Inês↗
DOE OSTI2024

Perturbation of tonoplast sucrose transport alters carbohydrate utilization for seasonal growth and defense metabolism in coppiced poplar

Abstract Nonstructural carbohydrate reserves of stems and roots underpin overall tree fitness and productivity under short-rotation management practices such as coppicing for bioenergy. While sucrose and starch comprise the predominant stem carbohydrate reserves of Populus, utilization for fitness and agricultural productivity is understood primarily in terms of starch turnover. The tonoplast sucrose transport protein SUT4 modulates sucrose export from source leaves to distant sinks during photoautotrophic growth, but the possibility of its involvement in remobilizing carbohydrates from storage organs during heterotrophic growth has not been explored. Here, we used PtaSUT4-knockout mutants of Populus tremula × P. alba (INRA 717-1B4) in winter (cool) and summer (warm) glasshouse coppicing experiments to assess SUT4 involvement in reserve utilization. Conditions preceding and supporting summer sprouting were considered favorable for growth, while those preceding and supporting cool temperature sprouting were suboptimal akin to conditions associated with coppicing as generally practiced. Epicormic bud emergence was delayed in sut4 mutants following lower temperature ‘winter’ but not summer coppicing. Winter xylem hexose increases were observed in control but not in sut4 stumps after coppicing. The magnitude of starch and sucrose reserve depletion was similar in control and sut4 stumps during the winter and did not explain the sprouting and xylem hexose differences. However, winter maintenance costs appeared higher in sut4 based partly on Krebs cycle intermediate levels. In control plants, bark accrual of abundant defense metabolites, including salicinoids and condensed tannins, was higher in summer than in winter, but this increase of summer defense allocations was attenuated in sut4 mutants. Temperature-sensitive trade-offs between growth and other priorities may therefore depend on SUT4 in Populus.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Montane forest productivity across a semiarid climatic gradient

Abstract High‐elevation montane forests are disproportionately important to carbon sequestration in semiarid climates where low elevations are dry and characterized by low carbon density ecosystems. However, these ecosystems are increasingly threatened by climate change with seasonal implications for photosynthesis and forest growth. As a result, we leveraged eddy covariance data from six evergreen conifer forest sites in the semiarid western United States to extrapolate the status of carbon sequestration within a framework of projected warming and drying. At colder locations, the seasonal evolution of gross primary productivity (GPP) was characterized by a single broad maximum during the summer that corresponded to snow melt‐derived moisture and a transition from winter dormancy to spring activity. Conversely, winter dormancy was transient at warmer locations, and GPP was responsive to both winter and summer precipitation such that two distinct GPP maxima were separated by a period of foresummer drought. This resulted in a predictable sequence of primary limiting factors to GPP beginning with air temperature in winter and proceeding to moisture and leaf area during the summer. Due to counteracting winter (positive) and summer (negative) GPP responses to warming, leaf area index and moisture availability were the best predictors of annual GPP differences across sites. Overall, mean annual GPP was greatest at the warmest site due to persistent vegetation photosynthetic activity throughout the winter. These results indicate that the trajectory of this region's carbon sequestration will be sensitive to reduced or delayed summer precipitation, especially if coupled to snow drought and earlier soil moisture recession, but summer precipitation changes remain highly uncertain. Given the demonstrated potential for seasonally offsetting responses to warming, we project that decadal semiarid montane forest carbon sequestration will remain relatively stable in the absence of severe disturbance.

Knowles, John F.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seasonal and Interspecific Variation in Frugivory by a Mixed Resident-Migrant Overwintering Songbird Community

Many temperate passerine bird species switch from diets of mostly invertebrates in the spring and summer to diets that include fruit and seeds in the fall and winter. However, relatively few studies have quantified diet composition or the extent of seasonal shifts during the non-breeding period, particularly among species and across communities with both residents and migrants. We measured carbon and nitrogen stable isotope values in food items (fruits, C3 and C4 seeds, and insects from various trophic levels and plant communities) and in multiple tissues (feathers and plasma/whole blood) from 11 species of songbirds wintering in the southeastern U.S. We combined these diet and tissue values with empirically derived discrimination factors and used concentration-dependent mixing models to quantify seasonal diet shifts. We also validated mixing model results with data from fecal samples. Diets in this bird community, as delineated N and C isotopic space, diverged in the fall and winter relative to the summer as consumption of fruits and seeds increased. Across this songbird community, estimated contributions of fruit to plasma/whole blood increased from 16.2 ± 7.5% in the fall (mean ± SD; range: 4–26%) to 21.7 ± 10.3% (range: 9–37%) in the winter, while contributions of seeds increased from 29.4 ± 2.6% (range: 28–32%) in the fall to 36.6 ± 4.8% (range: 32–42%) in the winter. Fecal data showed qualitatively similar trends to mixing models, but consistently estimated higher contributions of fruit. Our work indicates that fruits and seeds constitute substantial sources of sustenance for non-breeding songbirds, there is considerable separation of resource use among species in the fall and winter, and fecal estimates of contributions to songbird tissues should be interpreted cautiously.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The mechanisms and seasonal differences of the impact of aerosols on daytime surface urban heat island effect

The urban heat island intensity (UHII) is the temperature difference between urban areas and their rural surroundings. It is commonly attributed to changes in the underlying surface structure caused by urbanization. Air pollution caused by aerosol particles can affect the UHII through changing (1) the surface energy balance by the aerosol radiative effect (ARE) and (2) planetary-boundary-layer (PBL) stability and airflow intensity by modifying thermodynamic structure, which is referred to as the aerosol dynamic effect (ADE). By analyzing satellite data and ground-based observations collected from 2001 to 2010 at 35 cities in China and using the WRF-Chem model, we find that the impact of aerosols on UHII differs considerably: reducing the UHII in summer but increasing the UHII in winter. This seasonal contrast is proposed to be caused by the different strengths of the ARE and ADE between summer and winter. In summer, the ARE on UHII is dominant over the ADE, cooling down surface temperature more strongly in urban areas than in rural areas because of much higher aerosol loading, and offsets the urban heating, therefore weakening UHII. In winter, however, the ADE is more dominant, because aerosols stabilize the PBL more in the polluted condition, weakening the near-surface heat transport over urban areas in both vertical and horizontal directions. This means that the heat accumulated in urban areas is dispersed less effectively, and thus the UHII is enhanced. These findings shed new light on the impact of the interaction between urbanization-induced surface changes and air pollution on urban climate.urban areas and their rural surroundings. It is commonly attributed to changes in the underlying surface structure caused by urbanization. Air pollution caused by aerosol particles can affect the UHII through changing (1) the surface energy balance by the aerosol radiative effect (ARE) and (2) planetary-boundary-layer (PBL) stability and airflow intensity by modifying thermodynamic structure, which is referred to as the aerosol dynamic effect (ADE). By analyzing satellite data and ground-based observations collected from 2001 to 2010 at 35 cities in China and using the WRF-Chem model, we find that the impact of aerosols on UHII differs considerably: reducing the UHII in summer but increasing the UHII in winter. This seasonal contrast is proposed to be caused by the different strengths of the ARE and ADE between summer and winter. In summer, the ARE on UHII is dominant over the ADE, cooling down surface temperature more strongly in urban areas than in rural areas because of much higher aerosol loading, and offsets the urban heating, therefore weakening UHII. In winter, however, the ADE is more dominant, because aerosols stabilize the PBL more in the polluted condition, weakening the near-surface heat transport over urban areas in both vertical and horizontal directions. This means that the heat accumulated in urban areas is dispersed less effectively, and thus the UHII is enhanced. These findings shed new light on the impact of the interaction between urbanization-induced surface changes and air pollution on urban climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Distinct drivers of recent seasonal precipitation increase over Central Asia: roles of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases

Observational evidence reveals a pronounced wetting trend over Central Asia in recent decades, with the most substantial increases occurring during winter and summer. Yet the extent to which the drivers of these changes differ seasonally remains unknown. Here, we use single-forcing experiments from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) to examine the effects of various external forcings on winter and summer precipitation across Central Asia and to explore the physical mechanisms underlying seasonal precipitation changes. We find that greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing mainly increases winter precipitation by enhancing atmospheric moisture content through warming. In contrast, in summer, Asian sulfate aerosols enhance precipitation by modulating the westerly jet, which strengthens atmospheric moisture transport into the region. Asian black carbon exerts an opposing influence that partially offsets the sulfate-induced effect. Further attribution analysis based on CMIP6 simulations reinforces these sensitivity results and shows that GHG forcing is the primary driver of winter precipitation increases whereas anthropogenic aerosols dominate summer trends. Future CMIP6 projections suggest that under moderate- to high-emission scenarios, winter precipitation will continue to rise due to increasing GHG concentrations, while summer precipitation may decline across much of Central Asia as a result of reduced aerosol emissions following Asian clean air policies. These findings highlight a distinct seasonality in the drivers of recent precipitation increase and suggest a plausible divergence in future winter and summer precipitation trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1976

Skylab-4 radar scatterometer measurements over land

The author has identified the following significant results. Analysis of the SL4 S193 scatterometer observations shows that the winter measurements were reasonably consistent with summer measurements. The signals over land fall-off more rapidly in winter than in summer, probably because of the lack of vegetation return in winter; but the winter and summer results over land do not differ enough to cause changes in the general conclusions for the design of radars to be constructed for future space use. No consistent difference was found between snow-covered and snow-free terrain radar returns. The oceanic returns in winter were significantly different from those in summer, with a much less rapid fall-off with angle and a lower return at vertical. This is a true seasonal bias, for the winter seas tend to be much stormier than those in summer.

Moore, R. K.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Validation of MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth Retrievals over a Tropical Urban Site, Pune, India

In the present paper, MODIS (Terra and Aqua; level 2, collection 5) derived aerosoloptical depths (AODs) are compared with the ground-based measurements obtained from AERONET (level 2.0) and Microtops - II sun-photometer over a tropical urban station, Pune (18 deg 32'N; 73 deg 49'E, 559 m amsl). This is the first ever systematic validation of the MODIS aerosol products over Pune. Analysis of the data indicates that the Terra and Aqua MODIS AOD retrievals at 550 nm have good correlations with the AERONET and Microtops - II sun-photometer AOD measurements. During winter the linear regression correlation coefficients for MODIS products against AERONET measurements are 0.79 for Terra and 0.62 for Aqua; however for premonsoon, the corresponding coefficients are 0.78 and 0.74. Similarly, the linear regression correlation coefficients for Microtops measurements against MODIS products are 0.72 and 0.93 for Terra and Aqua data respectively during winter and are 0.78 and 0.75 during pre-monsoon. On yearly basis in 2008-2009, correlation coefficients for MODIS products against AERONET measurements are 0.80 and 0.78 for Terra and Aqua respectively while the corresponding coefficients are 0.70 and 0.73 during 2009-2010. The regressed intercepts with MODIS vs. AERONET are 0.09 for Terra and 0.05 for Aqua during winter whereas their values are 0.04 and 0.07 during pre-monsoon. However, MODIS AODs are found to underestimate during winter and overestimate during pre-monsoon with respect to AERONET and Microtops measurements having slopes 0.63 (Terra) and 0.74 (Aqua) during winter and 0.97 (Terra) and 0.94 (Aqua) during pre-monsoon. Wavelength dependency of Single Scattering Albedo (SSA) shows presence of absorbing and scattering aerosol particles. For winter, SSA decreases with wavelength with the values 0.86 +/- 0.03 at 440 nm and 0.82 +/- 0.04 at 1020nm. In pre-monsoon, it increases with wavelength (SSA is 0.87 +/- 0.02 at 440nm; and 0.88 +/-0.04 at 1020 nm).

More, Sanjay↗
NASA NTRS2016

Effect of Interhemispheric Currents on Equivalent Ionospheric Currents in Two Hemispheres: Simulation Results

In this research, we used numerical simulation to study the effect of interhemispheric field-aligned currents (IHCs), going between two conjugate ionospheres in two hemispheres, on the equivalent ionospheric currents (EICs). We computed the maps of these EICs In two hemispheres during summer-winter conditions, when the effect of the IHCs is especially significant. The main results may be summarized as follows. In winter hemisphere, the IHCs may significantly exceed and be a substitute for the local R1 currents, and they may strongly affect the magnitude, location, and direction of the EICs In the nightside winter auroral ionosphere. While in summer polar cap the EICs tend to flow sunward, and in winter polar cap the EICs turn toward dawn due to the effect of the IHCs. The well-known reversal in the direction of the EICs in the vicinity of the midnight meridian, in winter hemisphere, is observed not at the polar caps boundary (as usually expected) but equatorward of this boundary in the region of the IHCs location. The IHCs in winter hemisphere may be, in fact, not only a substitute for the R1 currents but also the major source of the Westward Auroral Electrojet, observed In both hemispheres during substorm activity.

Lyatsky, Sonya↗
DOE OSTI2024

Declines in ice cover are accompanied by light limitation responses and community change in freshwater diatoms

The rediscovery of diatom blooms embedded within and beneath the Lake Erie ice cover (2007–2012) ignited interest in psychrophilic adaptations and winter limnology. Subsequent studies determined the vital role ice plays in winter diatom ecophysiology as diatoms partition to the underside of ice, thereby fixing their location within the photic zone. Yet, climate change has led to widespread ice decline across the Great Lakes, with Lake Erie presenting a nearly “ice-free” state in several recent winters. It has been hypothesized that the resultant turbid, isothermal water column induces light limitation amongst winter diatoms and thus serves as a competitive disadvantage. To investigate this hypothesis, we conducted a physiochemical and metatranscriptomic survey that spanned spatial, temporal, and climatic gradients of the winter Lake Erie water column (2019–2020). Our results suggest that ice-free conditions decreased planktonic diatom bloom magnitude and altered diatom community composition. Diatoms increased their expression of various photosynthetic genes and iron transporters, which suggests that the diatoms are attempting to increase their quantity of photosystems and light-harvesting components (a well-defined indicator of light limitation). We identified two gene families which serve to increase diatom fitness in the turbid ice-free water column: proton-pumping rhodopsins (a potential second means of light-driven energy acquisition) and fasciclins (a means to “raft” together to increase buoyancy and co-locate to the surface to optimize light acquisition). With large-scale climatic changes already underway, our observations provide insight into how diatoms respond to the dynamic ice conditions of today and shed light on how they will fare in a climatically altered tomorrow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Teleconnections, Midlatitude Cyclones and Aegean Sea Turbulent Heat Flux Variability on Daily Through Decadal Time Scales

We analyze daily wintertime cyclone variability in the central and eastern Mediterranean during 1958-2001, and identify four distinct cyclone states, corresponding to the presence or absence of cyclones in each basin. Each cyclone state is associated with wind flows that induce characteristic patterns of cooling via turbulent (sensible and latent) heat fluxes in the eastern Mediterranean basin and Aegean Sea. The relative frequency of occurrence of each state determines the heat loss from the Aegean Sea during that winter, with largest heat losses occurring when there is a storm in the eastern but not central Mediterranean (eNOTc), and the smallest occurring when there is a storm in the central but not eastern Mediterranean (cNOTe). Time series of daily cyclone states for each winter allow us to infer Aegean Sea cooling for winters prior to 1985, the earliest year for which we have daily heat flux observations. We show that cyclone states conducive to Aegean Sea convection occurred in 1991/1992 and 1992/1993, the winters during which deep water formation was observed in the Aegean Sea, and also during the mid-1970s and the winters of 1963/1964 and 1968/1969. We find that the eNOTc cyclone state is anticorrelated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) prior to 1977/1978. After 1977/1978, the cNOTe state is anticorrelated with both the NAO and the North Caspian Pattern (NCP), showing that the area of influence of large scale atmospheric teleconnections on regional cyclone activity shifted from the eastern to the central Mediterranean during the late 1970s. A trend toward more frequent occurrence of the positive phase of the NAO produced less frequent cNOTe states since the late 1970s, increasing the number of days with strong cooling of the Aegean Sea surface waters.

cyclones↗
DOE OSTI2022

A regional (land–ocean) comparison of the seasonal to decadal variability of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream 1871–2011

Seasonal to decadal variations in Northern Hemisphere jet stream latitude and speed over land (Eurasia, North America) and oceanic (North Atlantic, North Pacific) regions are presented for the period 1871–2011 from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis dataset. Significant regional differences are seen on seasonal to decadal timescales. Seasonally, the jet latitude range is lower over the oceans compared to land, reduced from 20° over Eurasia to 10° over the North Atlantic where the ocean meridional heat transport is greatest. The mean jet latitude range is at a minimum in winter (DJF), particularly along the western boundary of the North Pacific and North Atlantic, where the land-sea contrast and SST gradients are strongest. The 141-year trends in jet latitude and speed show differences on a regional basis. The North Atlantic has significant increasing jet latitude trends in all seasons, up to 3° in winter. Eurasia has significant increasing trends in winter and summer, however, no increase is seen across the North Pacific or North America. Jet speed shows significant increases evident in winter (up to 4.7 ms –1 ), spring and autumn over the North Atlantic, Eurasia and North America however, over the North Pacific no increase is observed. Long term trends are generally overlaid by multidecadal variability, particularly evident in the North Pacific, where 20-year variability in jet latitude and jet speed are seen, associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation which explains 50% of the winter variance in jet latitude since 1940. The results highlight that northern hemisphere jet variability and trends differ on a regional basis (North Atlantic, North Pacific, Eurasia and North America) on seasonal to decadal timescales, suggesting that different mechanisms are influencing the jet latitude and speed. This is important from a climate modelling perspective and for climate predictions in the near and longer term.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Regional suitability of heating tower heat pumps based on technical and economic performance maps

The heating tower heat pump (HTHP) technology is evolving rapidly due to its high performance in summer and frost-free characteristic in winter. However, lacking comprehensive comparisons between the HTHP and conventional methods, such as air-source heat pump (ASHP), and chiller and boiler, greatly limits its applications. To address this problem, this paper carries out technological and economic performance analyses of the three systems in 353 locations over China by the processes of building load calculation, system sizing, annual simulation, performance comparison, and demonstration. Energy saving principle and potential of the HTHP are presented and explained. Based on that, economic performance comparison is conducted by considering the energy conversion efficiency and prices. The results show that the HTHP has advantage over the ASHP in most locations in China. The improvement in annual coefficient of performance (COP) is about 10% to 20%. For the locations in southwest China like Chongqing, the improvement is also less than 10% due to the large regeneration penalization in winter and small difference between dry-bulb and wet-bulb temperature in summer. The annual COP of the HTHP is 10% to 23% higher than that of the chiller and boiler in hot summer and cold winter zone, and cold zone. However, the HTHP shows no advantage over the chiller and boiler in severe cold zone because of the low efficiency of heat pump in winter, neither in hot summer and warm winter zone due to the small heating load. Based on the results, technical and economic performance maps are developed to guide the application of the HTHP in different climate regions.

heating tower heat pump, air-source heat pump, chi↗