Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “well casing”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 865 records · Page 48
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2014

Quantification of Wellbore Leakage Risk Using Non-destructive Borehole Logging Techniques

Well integrity is important at all potential CCS locations and may play a crucial role establishing leakage risk in areas where there is a high density of existing wells that could be impacted by the storage operations including depleted petroleum fields where EOR or CCS will occur. To address a need for risk quantification methods that can be directly applied to individual wells using borehole logging tools a study was conducted using data from five wells in Wyoming. The objectives of the study were: Objective 1: Develop methods to establish the baseline flow parameters (porosity and permeability or mobility) from individual measurements of the material properties and defects in a well. Objective 2: Develop a correlation between field flow-property data and cement logs that can be used to establish the flow-properties of well materials and well features using cement mapping tools. Objective 3: Establish a method that uses the flow-property model (Objective 2) to analyze the statistical uncertainties associated with individual well leakage that can provide basis for uncertainty in risk calculations. The project objectives were met through the logging of five wells in Carbon and Natrona County Wyoming to collect data that was used to estimate individual and average well flow properties and model the results using ultrasonic data collected during the logging. Three of the five wells provided data on point and average flow properties for well annuli. Data from the other two wells were used to create models of cement permeability and test whether information collected in one well could be used to characterize another well. The results of the in-situ point measurements were confirmed by the lab measurements sidewall cores collected near the same depths Objective 1 was met using the data collected through logging, testing, and sampling. The methods were developed that can establish baseline flow parameters of wells by both point and average test methods. The methods to estimate the flow properties modeling of point pressure tests, modeling of vertical interference tests, and laboratory measurement of cased-hole sidewall cores The wells were in sufficiently good shape to allow the development of the characterization methods while still having enough defects to study differences in results as they relate to well integrity. Samples and tests analyzed from three of five wells studied in showed the cements were largely intact and had not degraded from exposure native brines. Log results taken in conjunction with the core measurements indicate that interfaces and/or problems with cement placement due to eccentering provide preferential flow paths for fluids, which can increase the effective permeability of the barrier several orders of magnitude above the permeability of intact cement. The results of the maps created using logging tools indicating that the cement condition and bond are generally good identify a need for more research to understand how logs can be used to predicteffective well permeabilities such as those measured by the VITs in this study.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Techno-Economic Performance of Eavor Loop 2.0

This project evaluated techno-economic performance for a sample Eavor-Loop 2.0 design for electricity production and direct-use heating. The Eavor-Loop 2.0 design investigated is a 7.5-km deep closed-loop geothermal system consisting of 12 laterals for a total of more than 90 km of downhole well and lateral length. Both a high geothermal gradient scenario of 60 degrees C/km and a low geothermal gradient scenario of 30 degrees C/km were considered. With pure water injected at 60 degrees C and 80 kg/s, reservoir simulations with the Slender-Body Theory simulator indicate average production temperatures over a 30-year lifetime of ~125 degrees C and ~210 degrees C for the low and high geothermal gradient scenario, respectively. These correspond to heat production of ~22 M Wth and ~51 M Wth, respectively. Using IPSEpro simulations, we find average power production of ~2.2 M We and ~8.6 M We, respectively, for a subcritical organic Rankine cycle power plant with air-cooled condensers. Cost estimates indicate the overall capital and levelized costs are dominated by the lateral drilling cost. Obtaining a levelized cost of electricity below $70/M Wh requires a geothermal gradient of 60 degrees C/km, a discount rate below 9%, and lateral drilling cost below $400/m. A well cost model indicates that ~$400/m for the Eavor-Loop 2.0 design investigated can be obtained for a drilling rate of penetration about 40 ft/hr (with bit life of 50 hours), and omitting casing and cement. Traditional (geothermal) well drilling has achieved these drilling rate conditions, including the Utah FORGE project where the rate of penetration has exceeded 50 ft/hr in granite. However, it is unclear if these conditions are still valid for drilling the Eavor-Loop 2.0 laterals (i.e., ~82 km of laterals at 4 to 7.5-km vertical depth with rock temperatures up to 460 degrees C), as such downhole completion has never been developed before. Competitive levelized cost of heat values ($1.2-$8.2/GJ) are calculated, even for the low geothermal gradient scenario (30 degrees C/km) and lateral drilling cost of $600/m.

advanced geothermal system↗
DOE OSTI2021

Validation of the HyRAM+ physics models for use with propane

The Hydrogen Risk Assessment Model Plus (HyRAM+) toolkit combines quantitative risk assessment with simulations of unignited dispersion, ignited turbulent diffusion flames, and indoor accumulation with delayed ignition of fuels. HyRAM+ is differentiated from HyRAM in that it includes models and leak data for other alternate fuels. The models of the physical phenomena need to be validated for each of the fuels in the toolkit. This report shows the validation for propane which is being used as a surrogate for autogas, which is a mixture of propane and butane and used in internal combustion engines in vehicles. For flame length comparisons, five previously published experiments from peer reviewed journals were used to validate our models. The validation looked at flame lengths and flame widths with respect to different leak diameters, mass flow rates, and source pressures. Most of the sources included more than one set of experimental data, which were collected using different methods (CCD cameras, IR visualization etc.). In general, HyRAM+ overpredicts the flame lengths by around 65%. For heat and radiation models, we compared the heat flux and radiation data reported from two different sources to the values calculated by HyRAM+. For higher mass flow rates, the HyRAM+ calculated flame length results gave a better estimate of what is found in the experiments (65% error), but a higher error (85%) is observed between the HyRAM+ calculated lengths and the experimental flame lengthsfor lower mass flows. Some differences can be attributed to outdoor environmental effects (i.e. wind speed) and uncertainties in jet flame shapes. The propane flame trajectory is predicted for a high Reynolds number case with Re = 12,500 and a low Reynolds number case where Re = 2,000. The Re=12,500 case which is momentum dominated matches well with the experimental flame trajectory, but the agreement for the bouancy driven low Reynolds number case is not as good. Dispersion modeling for unignited propane was also analyzed. We compared the mole fraction, mixture fraction, mean velocity, concentration half width, and inverse mass concentration over an axial distance from different credible journals to the values calculated by HyRAM+. The results display good agreement but generally, HyRAM+ predicts a wider profile for mole fraction and mixture fraction experiments. Overall, HyRAM+’s results are reasonable for predicting the flame length, heat flux, flame trajectory, and dispersion for propane and can be used in risk analyses

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2016

Comparing simulations of AGN feedback

We perform adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) and smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) cosmological zoom simulations of a region around a forming galaxy cluster, comparing the ability of the methods to handle successively more complex baryonic physics. In the simplest, non-radiative case, the two methods are in good agreement with each other, but the SPH simulations generate central cores with slightly lower entropies and virial shocks at slightly larger radii, consistent with what has been seen in previous studies. The inclusion of radiative cooling, star formation, and stellar feedback leads to much larger differences between the two methods. Most dramatically, at z=5, rapid cooling in the AMR case moves the accretion shock to well within the virial radius, while this shock remains near the virial radius in the SPH case, due to excess heating, coupled with poorer capturing of the shock width. On the other hand, the addition of feedback from active galactic nuclei (AGNs) to the simulations results in much better agreement between the methods. For our AGN model, both simulations display halo gas entropies of 100 keV cm{sup 2}, similar decrements in the star formation rate, and a drop in the halo baryon content of roughly 30%. This is consistent with the AGN growth being self-regulated, regardless of the numerical method. However, the simulations with AGN feedback continue to differ in aspects that are not self-regulated, such that in SPH a larger volume of gas is impacted by feedback, and the cluster still has a lower entropy central core.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2002

Local Discontinuous Galerkin Methods for Partial Differential Equations with Higher Order Derivatives

In this paper we review the existing and develop new continuous Galerkin methods for solving time dependent partial differential equations with higher order derivatives in one and multiple space dimensions. We review local discontinuous Galerkin methods for convection diffusion equations involving second derivatives and for KdV type equations involving third derivatives. We then develop new local discontinuous Galerkin methods for the time dependent bi-harmonic type equations involving fourth derivatives, and partial differential equations involving fifth derivatives. For these new methods we present correct interface numerical fluxes and prove L(exp 2) stability for general nonlinear problems. Preliminary numerical examples are shown to illustrate these methods. Finally, we present new results on a post-processing technique, originally designed for methods with good negative-order error estimates, on the local discontinuous Galerkin methods applied to equations with higher derivatives. Numerical experiments show that this technique works as well for the new higher derivative cases, in effectively doubling the rate of convergence with negligible additional computational cost, for linear as well as some nonlinear problems, with a local uniform mesh.

Yan, Jue↗
NASA NTRS1981

Computer simulation of surface and film processes

A molecular dynamics technique based upon Lennard-Jones type pair interactions is used to investigate time-dependent as well as equilibrium properties. The case study deals with systems containing Si and O atoms. In this case a more involved potential energy function (PEF) is employed and the system is simulated via a Monte-Carlo procedure. This furnishes the equilibrium properties of the system at its interfaces and surfaces as well as in the bulk.

Tiller, W. A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Beyond Magic Barrels: Digital manufacturing for crystallization, process development and optimization of explosive materials: Part II Resveratrol Exemplar

This SAND report summarizes work supported by an Engineering Sciences Research Foundation (ESRF) Lab Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project entitled “Beyond Magic Barrels: Digital manufacturing for crystallization, process development and optimization of explosive materials.” This SAND report is written in two parts with Part 1 discusses recrystallization of our explosive exemplar and Part 2 summarizing our work with recrystallization of resveratrol. We have studied resveratrol recrystallization with a multiscale approach combining experiments, modeling and simulation. At the single crystal scale, microscopy experiments illuminate crystal time-dependent growth rates using advanced image analysis. Bench scale experiments were carried out to look at growth of multiple particles in a small reactor creating thousands of particles and analyzing the results with microscopy and μCT. For the modeling we combine kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) models with subscale information from density functional theory (DFT) or molecular dynamics. This work is discussed in Part 1 and can also be found in a paper from the project discussing a coarse-grained kMC model specifically developed for resveratrol. For well-mixed systems, we have population balance equations (PBE) linked with species mass conservation forming a set of ordinary differential equations that can be solved quickly. For more complicated geometries, such as the vat crystallization used throughout the complex, a coupled computational fluid dynamic (CFD)/PBE method was developed to account for gradients in temperature and concentration and differences in crystallization rates throughout the domain. These simulations are more complex and require high performance computing. We present results for two cases: 5% seed fast cool with parameters fit to the well-mixed case and 5% seed slow cool using the same parameters. We show reasonable agreement with experiments though are particles are significantly larger than the experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Corrosion Mechanism and Applicability Assessment of N80 and 9Cr Steels in CO{sub 2} Auxiliary Steam Drive

Corrosion tests were conducted in a high-temperature high-pressure (HTHP) autoclave to simulate the conditions of CO{sub 2} auxiliary steam drive in gas injection wells. Weight loss tests were performed with the sheets of N80 and 9Cr steels under the testing conditions. The morphology and composition of corrosion products were explored by SEM, EDS, XRD and XPS. The corrosion resistance of 9Cr steel was better than that of N80 steel under the testing conditions. The corrosion rates of N80 and 9Cr met the application requirements in CO{sub 2} auxiliary steam drive. The results broke the constraint in ISO-15156 standards. The corrosion process of N80 steel was mainly affected by the flow velocity. However, the corrosion process of 9Cr steel was mainly affected by temperature. The corrosion resistance of 9Cr steel depended on the FeCO{sub 3} content of Cr-rich layer, which was closely related to temperature. The low flow velocity influenced the diffusion process of N80 steel corrosive ions, whereas the high flow velocity influenced the integrity of corrosion scales. Considering the influence of flow velocity on the corrosion of tubing and casing, in the gas injection well, 9Cr steel and N80 steel were, respectively, selected as the materials of tubing and casing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

SECARB Construction and Site Info

Site information, well schematics, component diagrams, and casing tally from the SECARB project at Cranfield oil site in Mississippi.

as built↗
DOE OSTI2025

Casing Annulus Monitoring of CO 2 Injection Using Wireless Autonomous Distributed Sensor Networks

Effective and secure carbon subsurface storage, involving the deep underground injection of CO 2 into geological formations where it is permanently trapped, is paramount to mitigating CO 2 emissions (Figure I). Ensuring the integrity of these storage sites and detecting potential leakage through the casing annulus necessitates robust monitoring. This work provides the first integrated demonstration of a wireless casing-annulus monitoring architecture that can operate in highly attenuating cement-brine environments relevant to CO 2 storage. This project focused on developing and validating a novel sensor system for integration with autonomous monitoring near the cement reservoir interface. The goal was a fully integrated Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 4/5 field validation of a distributed wireless intelligent sensor system providing real-time, direct subsurface formation measurements to enhance fluid movement monitoring in the cemented casing annulus. Achieving this objective required the development and integration of 1) wireless autonomous microsensor technology by California Institute of Technology (Caltech); 2) sensor packaging and emplacement technology by Research Triangle Institute (RTI); and 3) smart well completions using wireless active casing collars and NOV pipe by the Sandia National Lab (SNL). The collaboration with the Caltech team in this project aimed to develop millimeter-scale radio frequency identification (RFID) sensors capable of detecting CO 2 , pH, and/or methane levels. These sensors are engineered to be impervious to fluids, allowing them to be mixed with cement and installed within the casing annulus. They operate using RFID protocols at frequencies of 902–928 MHz for both power and communication. A Sandia National Laboratories’ team engaged their expertise in the development of a Smart Collar system designed for the wireless data collection from these RFID sensors embedded in the cement annulus and transmission of this information to the ground surface via IntelliPipe/IntelliServ NOV drill pipe. This is accomplished through inductive coupling at the collar, which facilitates data transfer through each segment of the pipe. Because the system cannot transmit a direct current signal to power the Smart Collar, both power and communication were implemented using alternating current and electromagnetic signals at varying frequencies. Furthermore, the developed microsensor technology had to be demonstrated and validated in comparison with reference transducer measurements in a field test site at The University of Texas at Austin (UT-Austin). Although the full sensor suite did not reach field-deployment readiness, the system-level integration achieved in this project establishes a validated pathway for future incorporation of advanced microsensors.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2013

LOW STELLAR OBLIQUITIES IN COMPACT MULTIPLANET SYSTEMS

We measure the sky-projected stellar obliquities ({lambda}) in the multiple-transiting planetary systems KOI-94 and Kepler-25, using the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect. In both cases, the host stars are well aligned with the orbital planes of the planets. For KOI-94 we find {lambda} = -11 Degree-Sign {+-} 11 Degree-Sign , confirming a recent result by Hirano and coworkers. Kepler-25 was a more challenging case, because the transit depth is unusually small (0.13%). To obtain the obliquity, it was necessary to use prior knowledge of the star's projected rotation rate and apply two different analysis methods to independent wavelength regions of the spectra. The two methods gave consistent results, {lambda} = 7 Degree-Sign {+-} 8 Degree-Sign and -0. Degree-Sign 5 {+-} 5. Degree-Sign 7. There are now a total of five obliquity measurements for host stars of systems of multiple-transiting planets, all of which are consistent with spin-orbit alignment. This alignment is unlikely to be the result of tidal interactions because of the relatively large orbital distances and low planetary masses in the systems. In this respect, the multiplanet host stars differ from hot-Jupiter host stars, which commonly have large spin-orbit misalignments whenever tidal interactions are weak. In particular, the weak-tide subset of hot-Jupiter hosts has obliquities consistent with an isotropic distribution (p = 0.6), but the multiplanet hosts are incompatible with such a distribution (p {approx} 10{sup -6}). This suggests that high obliquities are confined to hot-Jupiter systems, and provides further evidence that hot-Jupiter formation involves processes that tilt the planetary orbit.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-J-269: Tracking of Tumor Regression for Stage III Lung Cancer Using CBCT

Purpose: This study is to evaluate the tumor regression over the course of EBRT treatment and to determine the difference of tumor reduction for stage III lung squamous cell cancer (SCC) and adenocarcinoma using CBCT. Methods: Twenty three stage III lung cancer patients treated in our clinic who had daily cone beam CT (CBCT) were selected for this study (16 adenocarcinoma and 7 SCC cases). Patients received prescription dose in the range of 50Gy–71.4Gy (mean =60.3Gy, median =50Gy) at 1.8Gy or 2Gy per fraction. Treatments spanned over a minimum of five weeks. Initial mean volume of the gross tumor volume (GTV) was 123cc (range = 14.7cc–353.3cc). For this study, we choose six sets of CBCTs at an interval of one week, starting from the first fraction of treatment. Daily CBCTs from treatment linac computer were transferred to MIM Software version 6.0. An experienced physician contoured the primary GTV on each slices of the CBCT for these patients. Results: A consistent regression of the GTVs was observed in all patients, except in one patient (adeno case) where GTV did not change. Weekly volumetric reduction was in the range of 11.2%–16.6%. Maximum reductions were noticed in the first two weeks of the treatment cycle; mean overall (for adeno+SCC) reductions were 16.6%, 14.2% in week-1 and week-2, respectively. Mean reduction over five weeks of treatment was 49.8% (range = 0.1%–75.5%). Higher reduction was observed in SCC patients as compare to adenocarcinoma cases (54.9% vs. 47.6%); however, the difference was not statistically significant (p-value > 0.05). Conclusion: Large regression of tumors over the course of EBRT for stage III lung cancer patients was observed. Both SCC and adenocarcinoma responded well; overall reduction for SCC cases was higher. A future study is warranted for determining the co-relation between tumor volume reduction and treatment outcome.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Principles of water oxidation and O2-based hydrocarbon transformation by multinuclear catalytic sites

Abstract The central thrust of this integrated experimental and computational research program was to obtain an atomistic-level understanding of the structural and dynamic factors underlying the design of catalysts for water oxidation and selective reductant-free O2-based transformations. The focus was on oxidatively robust polyoxometalate (POM) complexes in which a catalytic active site interacts with proximal metal centers in a synergistic manner. Thirty five publications in high-impact journals arose from this grant. I. Developing an oxidatively and hydrolytically stable and fast water oxidation catalyst (WOC), a central need in the production of green fuels using water as a reductant, has proven particularly challenging. During this grant period we have designed and investigated several carbon-free, molecular (homogenous), oxidatively and hydrolytically stable WOCs, including the Rb8K2[{Ru4O4(OH)2(H2O)4}(γ-SiW10O36)2]·25H2O (1) and [Co4(H2O)2(α-PW9O34)2]10- (2). Although complex 1 is fast, oxidatively and hydrolytically stable WOC, Ru is neither abundant nor inexpensive. Therefore, development of a stable and fast carbon-free homogenous WOC, based on earth-abundant elements became our highest priority. In 2010, we reported the first such catalyst, complex 2. This complex is substantially faster than 1 and stable under homogeneous conditions. Recently, we have extended our efforts and reported a V2-analog of the complex 2, i.e. [Co4(H2O)2(α-VW9O34)2]10- (3), which shows an even greater stability and reactivity. We succeeded in: (a) immobilizing catalysts 1 and 2 on the surface of various electrodes, and (b) elucidating the mechanism of O2 formation and release from complex 1, as well as the Mn4O4L6 “cubane” cluster. We have shown that the direct O-O bond formation is the most likely pathway for O2 formation during water oxidation catalyzed by 1. II. Oxo transfer catalysts that contain two proximal and synergistically interacting redox active metal centers in the active site form another part of considerable interest of our grant because species with such sites [including methane monooxygenase (MMO) and more] are some of the most effective oxygenase catalysts known. Our team conducted the following research on γ-M2-Keggin complexes: (a) investigated stability of the trimer [{Fe3(OH)3(H2O)2}3(γ-SiW10O36)3]15-, 4, in water, and developed the chemistry and catalysis of the di-iron centered POM, [γ(1,2)-SiW10{Fe(OH)}2O38]6-, 5, in organic solvents (Figure 2). We also study the thermodynamic and structural stability of γ-M2-Keggin in aqueous media for different M’s (d-electron metals). We have defined two structural classes of POMs with proximally bound d-electron metal centers. We refer to these structural isomers of the {γ-M2SiW10} family of POMs as “in-pocket” and “out-of pocket”. We have elucidated the factors controlling the structure and stability of the V, Fe, Ru, Tc, Mo and Rh derivatives of [(SiO4)M2(OH)2W10O32]4- using a range of computational tools. We have: (a) demonstrated that heteroatom X in these polyanions may function as an “internal switch” for defining the ground electronic states and, consequently, the reactivity of the γ-M2-Keggin POM complexes; (b) elucidated reactivity of divacant lacunary species and polyperoxotungstates (PPTs), {Xn+O4[WO(O2)2]4}n-, which could be degradation products of γ-M2-Keggin complexes in aqueous media; (c) elucidated the role of the POM ligand in stabilization of {Ru2} and {(Ru-oxo)2} fragments in the reactant and product of the reaction of {γ-[(Xn+O4)Ru2(OH)2W10O32]}(8-n)- (where X = Si4+, P5+ and S6+) with O2, and (d) the mechanisms of olefin epoxidation catalyzed by these di-d-transition metal substituted and divacant lacunary γ-M2-Keggin complexes. III. Complementing the efforts presented above was the development of less time-consuming but reasonably accurate computational methods allowing one to explore more deeply large catalytic systems. We developed Reactive Force Field (ReaxFF) to study interaction of the targeted POMs with water, proton and hydroxide ions in the liquid phase. We tested our ReaxFF parameters on the Lindqvist POMs, M6O19n-, where M = Nb and Ta. These parameters are made available as part of the ReaxFF code. In addition, we have developed parameters for Sc, Ti, Fe, Co and Ni in combination with H, C, N, O, as well as the same metal (M-M) for the spin-polarized self-consistent-charge density-functional tight-binding (DFTB) method. Test calculations showed that the DFTB method with the present parameters in most cases reproduces structural properties very well. These parameters are made available as part of the DFTB code. Thus, this DOE BES funded research project has clarified several key areas impacting (a) water oxidation and O2-based hydrocarbon transformation, (b) stabilization of key structures and catalytic intermediates in such processes, (c) immobilization of molecular catalysts on metal oxide surfaces, and (d) application of optimal computational methods to study reaction dynamics in large systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Intermediate Wake of a Thin Flat Plate with a Circular Trailing Edge

The intermediate wakes of thin flat plates with circular trailing edges (TEs) are investigated here with direct numerical simulations (DNSs). The separating boundary layers are turbulent in all cases. The near wake in two thin-plate cases (IN & NS), with a focus on the vortex shedding process, was explored in a recent article. Intermittent shedding was observed in Case IN. Case NS, with half the TE diameter of Case IN, was an essentially non-shedding case. A third case (ST) with a sharp trailing edge was also investigated and found to exhibit an intermittent wake instability. The objectives of the present study are twofold. The first is to determine if the wake instability found in Case ST exists in Cases IN and NS as well. The second is to provide the distributions of the turbulent normal intensities and shear stress in the wake and to understand these distributions via the budget terms in the corresponding transport equations. The results show that both Cases IN & NS exhibit a wake instability in the intermediate wake region, that is similar to that found earlier in Case ST. We note that in Case IN, the presence of an intermediate-wake instability results in the co-existence of two different types of instability within a single wake. The distributions of the turbulent normal intensities and shear stress, and the budget terms for the streamwise intensity are included and discussed here. All the budget terms contribute appreciably to the overall budget in the transport equation for streamwise normal intensity.

Rai, Man Mohan↗
DOE OSTI2019

An Analytical Model for Capturing the Decline of Fracture Conductivity in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale Trend from Production Data

Fracture conductivity decline is a concern in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale (TMS) wells due to the high content of clay in the shale. An analytical well productivity model was developed in this study considering the pressure-dependent conductivity of hydraulic fractures. The log-log diagnostic approach was used to identify the boundary-dominated flow regime rather than the linear flow regime. Case studies of seven TMS wells indicated that the proposed model allows approximation of the field data with good accuracy. Production data analyses with the model revealed that the pressure-dependent fracture conductivity in the TMS in the Mississippi section declines following a logarithmic mode, with dimensionless coefficient χ varying between 0.116 and 0.130. The pressure-dependent decline of fracture conductivity in the transient flow period is more significant than that in the boundary-dominated flow period.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Investigating the potential of a global precipitation forecast to inform landslide prediction

Extreme rainfall events within landslide-prone areas can be catastrophic, resulting in loss of property, infrastructure, and life. A global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model provides routine near-real time estimates of landslide hazard using Integrated Multi-Satellite Precipitation Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Mission (IMERG). However, it does not provide information on potential landslide hazard in the future. Forecasting potential landslide events at a global scale presents an area of open research. This study compares a global precipitation forecast provided by NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) with near-real time satellite precipitation estimates. The Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor gauge corrected (MRMS-GC) reference is used to assess the performance of both satellite and model-based precipitation products over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The forecast lead time of 24hrs is considered, with a focus on extreme precipitation events. The performance of IMERG and GEOS-Forecast products is assessed in terms of the probability of detection, success ratio, critical success index and hit bias as well as continuous statistics. The results show that seasonality influences the performance of both satellite and model-based precipitation products. Comparison of IMERG and GEOS-Forecast globally as well as in several event case studies (Colombia, southeast Asia, and Tajikistan) reveals that GEOS-Forecast detects extreme rainfall more frequently relative to IMERG for these specific analyses. For recent landslide points across the globe, the 24hr accumulated precipitation forecast >100 mm corresponds well with near-real time daily accumulated IMERG precipitation estimates. GEOS-Forecast and IMERG precipitation match more closely for tropical cyclones than for other types of storms. The main intention of this study is to assess the viability of using a global forecast for landslide predictions and understand the extent of the variability between these products to inform where we would expect the landslide modeling results to most prominently diverge. Results of this study will be used to inform how forecasted precipitation estimates can be incorporated into the LHASA model to provide the first global predictive view of landslide hazards.

S. Khan↗
NASA NTRS2021

Investigating the Potential of A Global Precipitation Forecast to Inform Landslide Prediction

Extreme rainfall events within landslide-prone areas can be catastrophic, resulting in loss of property, infra-structure, and life. A global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model provides routine near-real time estimates of landslide hazard using Integrated Multi-Satellite Precipitation Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Mission (IMERG). However, it does not provide information on potential landslide hazard in the future. Forecasting potential landslide events at a global scale presents an area of open research. This study compares a global precipitation forecast provided by NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) with near-real time satellite precipitation estimates. The Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor gauge corrected (MRMS-GC) reference is used to assess the performance of both satellite and model-based precipitation products over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The forecast lead time of 24hrs is considered, with a focus on extreme precipitation events. The performance of IMERG and GEOS-Forecast products is assessed in terms of the probability of detection, success ratio, critical success index and hit bias as well as continuous statistics. The results show that seasonality influences the performance of both satellite and model-based precipitation products. Comparison of IMERG and GEOS-Forecast globally as well as in several event case studies (Colombia, southeast Asia, and Tajikistan) reveals that GEOS-Forecast detects extreme rainfall more frequently relative to IMERG for these specific analyses. For recent landslide points across the globe, the 24hr accumulated precipitation forecast >100 mm corresponds well with near-real time daily accumulated IMERG precipitation estimates. GEOS-Forecast and IMERG precipitation match more closely for tropical cyclones than for other types of storms. The main intention of this study is to assess the viability of using a global forecast for landslide predictions and understand the extent of the variability between these products to inform where we would expect the landslide modeling results to most prominently diverge. Results of this study will be used to inform how forecasted precipitation estimates can be incorporated into the LHASA model to provide the first global predictive view of landslide hazards.

S. Khan↗
NASA NTRS2007

Optical and X-Ray Observations of GRB 060526: A Complex Afterglow Consistent with an Achromatic Jet Break

We obtained 98 R-band and 18 B, r', i' images of the optical afterglow of GRB 060526 (z = 3.21) with the MDM 1.3 m, 2.4 m, and the PROMPT telescopes at CTIO over the five nights following the burst trigger. Combining these data with other optical observations reported in GCN and the Swift XRT observations, we compare the optical and X-ray afterglow light curves of GRB 060526. Both the optical and X-ray afterglow light curves show rich features, such as flares and breaks. The densely sampled optical observations provide very good coverage at T > 10(exp 4) s. We observed a break at 2.4 x 10(exp 5) sin the optical afterglow light curve. Compared with the X-ray afterglow light curve, the break is consistent with an achromatic break supporting the beaming models of GRBs. However, the prebreak and postbreak temporal decay slopes are difficult to explain in simple afterglow models. We estimated a jet angle of theta(sub j) approx. 7deg and a prompt emission size of R(sub prompt) approx. 2 x 10(exp 14) cm. In addition, we detected several optical flares with amplitudes of (Delta)m approx. 0.2,0.6, and 0.2 mag. The X-ray afterglows detected by Swift have shown complicated decay patterns. Recently, many well-sampled optical afterglows also show decays with flares and multiple breaks. GRB 060526 provides an additional case of such a complex, well-observed optical afterglow. The accumulated well-sampled afterglows indicate that most of the optical afterglows are complex.

Dai, X.↗