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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Empirical Indicators of Transmission Value in the Southeast United States

Concurrent differences in energy price between different parts of the electric grid are a key indicator of the value of additional transmission. In areas without a wholesale electricity market, such as the Southeast, an alternative indicator to price is the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) system lambda data. This economic metric represents the minimized marginal production costs of thermal generators, including fuel and other variable operation and maintenance expenses. Balancing Authorities report a single system lambda for their entire balancing area. Most Southeastern lambdas exhibit sufficient price variation to support a transmission valuation analysis, although incomplete accounting of congestion costs or scarcity rents during peak load hours may underestimate the true value of transmission capacity. With transmission value defined as the annual average hourly absolute price difference between two regions and FERC’s system lambda data used as a price proxy, we find the following results in the Southeast region during 2012-2023 (reported in $\$2024$/MWh): Intra‐regional findings: Annual averages historically span $\$2$–$\$28$/MWh and average $\$12$/MWh in SERTP and span $\$4$–$\$19$/MWh and average $\$9$/MWh in FRCC, disregarding transmission value driven by anomalous data. The ranges of transmission value reported here are large, spanning an order of magnitude in some cases. Much of this variation is driven by year-to-year changes, with 2022 having a particularly high intra-regional transmission value due to elevated natural gas prices. Inter‐regional corridors: Annual average transmission values across three broader regions range from $\$6$ to $\$28$/MWh with a long-term average of $\$11$/MWh. Much of the transmission value is concentrated in a small portion of hours. Across all regions, severe weather—particularly polar vortex events in January 2018, February 2021, and December 2022—drives the largest price spreads. Seasonal patterns also emerge, with summer afternoons and fall mornings contributing consistently to transmission value, as for example between MISO and SOCO in 2023.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

What can surface wind observations tell us about interannual variation in wind energy output?

The past decade of wind power growth was supported by capacity factor improvements and associated cost reductions. But are higher capacity factors a technology success story or, as suggested by recent research, has the influence of technology been overstated by ignoring positive surface wind speed trends? The answer could influence estimates of wind energy's cost and even future deployment rates. We find that US surface wind speed observations imply a 2.6% improvement in capacity factors from 2010 to 2019. Yet newer vintages of wind plants have recorded capacity factors that are ~25% larger than plants built close to 2010. It follows that technological factors and improved site quality, not higher wind speeds, drove most of the improvement in capacity factors. Additionally, we match hundreds of meteorological stations to nearby (< 25 km) wind plants and compare annual estimated generation, based on a function of surface wind speed observations, to annual recorded generation. Researchers rely on this publicly available surface data because measurements co-located with wind plants are generally considered proprietary. Our analysis addresses a research gap: interannual variation in observed surface wind speeds is rarely compared to observed data at wind plant locations and turbine heights. We find that despite its common use for this purpose, generation estimates based on publicly available surface observational data provide a poor proxy for interannual variability in recorded wind generation. These findings suggest that caution is generally needed when researchers use surface wind speed measurements to investigate long-term wind energy trends.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1989

A study of the spatial scales of discrete polar auroral arcs

Recent theoretical works have dealt with the identification and evaluation of the physical processes that determine the characteristic scale sizes of discrete auroral arcs. It is broadly acknowledged that a characteristic spatial width of approximately 100 km (at ionospheric heights) results naturally from the ionospheric mapping of the high-altitude magnetospheric convection electric field. However, recent analysis of the spatial power spectral distributions of electric and magnetic field variations has revealed structure at much smaller spatial scales. In this analysis, precipitating auroral electron data from the J-package sensor on the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program satellite is used to study the spatial scale sizes and size distributions of polar auroral arcs. A monotonically decreasing inverse-wavelength spectrum with a slope near unity is common, with no strictly preferred scale sizes, although the scale spectrum does flatten at scales larger than approximately 100 to 200 km. Typical observed widths of the auroral arcs tend to be much smaller than the resistive scale length, and the observed widths do not have a strong dependence on local ionospheric parameters.

Gorney, David J.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Characterization of Microbial Communities Found in Bioreactor Effluent

The purpose of this investigation was to examine microbial communities of simulated wastewater effluent from hollow fiber membrane bioreactors collected from the Space Life Science Laboratory and Texas Technical University. Microbes were characterized using quantitative polymerase chain reaction where a total count of bacteria and fungi were determined. The primers that were used to determine the total count of bacteria and fungi were targeted for 16S rDNA genes and the internal transcribed spacer, respectively. PCR products were detected with SYBR Green I fluorescent dye and a melting curve analysis was performed to identify unique melt profiles resulting from DNA sequence variations from each species of the community. Results from both the total bacteria and total fungi count assays showed that distinct populations were present in isolates from these bioreactors. This was exhibited by variation in the number of peaks observed on the melting curve analysis graph. Further analysis of these results using species-specific primers will shed light on exactly which microbes are present in these effluents. Information gained from this study will enable the design of a system that can efficiently monitor microbes that play a role in the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen in wastewater on the International Space Station to assist in the design of a sustainable system capable of converting this nutrient.

Flowe, Candice↗
DOE OSTI2022

Novel Tube Design for Superheater Heat Exchanger Enabled Via Additive Manufacturing

Superheater tubes are critical boiler components that operate at relatively higher temperatures and pressure. Amongst the primary concerns for these tubes is the deposition of ash particles on the tube surface, leading to the reduced thickness of the tube due to material corrosion, consequently causing early creep failure of the component. In this research, a novel tube design has been proposed which resembles a teardrop or ogive shape to reduce the drag and concurrently improve the creep life of the superheater tubes. To administer the practicality of novel tubes, metal additive manufacturing (AM), for instance, laser-powder bed fusion (L-PBF), has been proposed. These unconventional designs were assessed and compared with the baseline circular tube design for mechanical design requirements (hoop stress and creep life) and the particle and flue gas flow characteristics around the differently shaped tubes. A thermomechanical finite element (FE) analysis was performed for hoop stress calculations. This study also emphasizes on effect of circumferential thermal variation on hoop stress distribution in tubes. Therefore, a detailed two-dimensional (2D) thermal simulation has been performed to report the circumferential thermal variation on the tube. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis coupled with particle tracing was performed for gas flow visualization and particle tracing around the proposed shapes and baseline circular-shaped tube design. The Schlieren optic setup was built and leveraged for qualitative validation of the proposed design. The complete design methodology established in the paper shows teardrop-shaped tubes better in terms of drag and creep life in contrast to the circular-shaped tube.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Representation Learning via Quantum Neural Tangent Kernels

Variational quantum circuits are used in quantum machine learning and variational quantum simulation tasks. Designing good variational circuits or predicting how well they perform for given learning or optimization tasks is still unclear. Here we discuss these problems, analyzing variational quantum circuits using the theory of neural tangent kernels. We define quantum neural tangent kernels, and derive dynamical equations for their associated loss function in optimization and learning tasks. We analytically solve the dynamics in the frozen limit, or lazy training regime, where variational angles change slowly and a linear perturbation is good enough. We extend the analysis to a dynamical setting, including quadratic corrections in the variational angles. We then consider a hybrid quantum classical architecture and define a large-width limit for hybrid kernels, showing that a hybrid quantum classical neural network can be approximately Gaussian. The results presented here show limits for which analytical understandings of the training dynamics for variational quantum circuits, used for quantum machine learning and optimization problems, are possible. These analytical results are supported by numerical simulations of quantum machine-learning experiments.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1972

Factors which influence the analysis and design of ejector nozzles

A theoretical analysis of the viscous interaction between the primary and secondary streams of ejector nozzles was developed. The analysis accounts for real sonic line effects and the streamwise variation in stream mixing and boundary layer within the ejector. The aspects of the analysis are explained and illustrated by applying the theory to a variety of ejector configurations including cylindrical shroud, contoured flap and plug nozzles. Extensive comparisons are made between theory and data to show the importance of various analytical assumptions and such design variables as diameter ratio, spacing ratio, total temperature ratio, and primary nozzle geometry.

Anderson, B. H.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Global variation of the para hydrogen fraction in Jupiter's atmosphere and implications for dynamics on the outer planets

A detailed analysis of the Voyager infrared spectrometer measurements on Jupiter's atmosphere is presented, and possible implications of para hydrogen disequilibrium for the energetics and dynamics of that atmosphere are examined. The method of data analysis is described, and results for the large scale latitude variation of the para hydrogen fraction are presented. The Jovian results show pronounced latitude variation, and are compared with other parameters including wind fields, thermal structure, and various indicators of atmospheric clouds. The problem of equilibration rate is reexamined, and it is concluded that on Jupiter the equilibration time is longer than the radiative time constant at the level of emission to space, but that this inequality reverses at greater depths. A model for the interaction of fluid motions with the ortho-para conversion process is presented, and a consistent mixing length theory for the reacting ortho-para mixture is developed. Several implications of the Jovian data for atmospheric energetics and stability on the outer planets are presented.

Conrath, B. J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Parametric Geometry, Structured Grid Generation, and Initial Design Study for REST-Class Hypersonic Inlets

Computational design and analysis of three-dimensional hypersonic inlets with shape transition has been a significant challenge due to the complex geometry and grid required for three-dimensional viscous flow calculations. Currently, the design process utilizes an inviscid design tool to produce initial inlet shapes by streamline tracing through an axisymmetric compression field. However, the shape is defined by a large number of points rather than a continuous surface and lacks important features such as blunt leading edges. Therefore, a design system has been developed to parametrically construct true CAD geometry and link the topology of a structured grid to the geometry. The Adaptive Modeling Language (AML) constitutes the underlying framework that is used to build the geometry and grid topology. Parameterization of the CAD geometry allows the inlet shapes produced by the inviscid design tool to be generated, but also allows a great deal of flexibility to modify the shape to account for three-dimensional viscous effects. By linking the grid topology to the parametric geometry, the GridPro grid generation software can be used efficiently to produce a smooth hexahedral multiblock grid. To demonstrate the new capability, a matrix of inlets were designed by varying four geometry parameters in the inviscid design tool. The goals of the initial design study were to explore inviscid design tool geometry variations with a three-dimensional analysis approach, demonstrate a solution rate which would enable the use of high-fidelity viscous three-dimensional CFD in future design efforts, process the results for important performance parameters, and perform a sample optimization.

Ferlemann, Paul G.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Local time variation of equatorial thermospheric composition determined by the San Marco 3 Nace

The results of the Neutral Atmospheric Composition Experiment (Nace) on the Italian San Marco 3 satellite are analyzed. The analysis provides a comprehensive description of the daily variations in the densities of O, N2, Ar, and He in composition of the lower thermosphere, and also indicates that transport processes (possibly occurring elsewhere in the atmosphere) play an important part in the daily variation of the thermospheric composition at altitudes between 220 and 250 km.

Newton, G. P.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparing Global Spray Combustion Characteristics and Local Shot-to-Shot Variations in a Reacting n -Heptane Spray

In support of efforts to develop improved models of turbulent spray behavior and combustion in diesel engines, experimental data and analysis must be obtained for guidance and validation. For Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS)-based Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling approaches, representative ensemble average experimental results are important. For high-fidelity models such as large eddy simulations (LES)-based CFD, precise individual experimental results are desirable. However, making comparisons between a given experiment and LES is a challenge since local parameters cannot be directly compared. In this work, an optically accessible constant pressure flow rig (CPFR) is utilized to acquire diesel-like fuel injection and reaction behavior simultaneously with three optical diagnostic techniques: rainbow Schlieren deflectometry (RSD), OH* chemiluminescence (OH*), and two-color pyrometry (2CP). The CPFR allows a large number of repeated injection experiments to be performed for statistical analysis and convergence using ensemble-averaging techniques, while maintaining highly repeatable test conditions. Even for stable test conditions, variations in local turbulent fuel–air mixing introduce variability, which manifests as significant differences in OH* and 2CP results. Experimental measurements of characteristic parameters including liquid and vapor jet penetration, liftoff length, soot temperature and concentration, and turbulent flame speed, along with the shot-to-shot variability of each dataset, are presented and discussed. Finally, a statistical method is utilized to analyze the extent of this variability, and to identify superlative injections within the dataset for discussion and analysis of shot-to-shot variations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1983

Atmospheric temperatures near the tropical tropopause Temporal variations, zonal asymmetry and implications for stratospheric water vapor

Analysis of temperature measurements obtained over an eight-year period in the vicinity of the low-latitude tropopause confirms the existence of longitude regions which are consistently colder by approximately 2-3 K than elsewhere in the tropics. These temperature differences, however, are confined to a layer of thickness 3-5 km centered on the tropopause. The lowest monthly mean temperatures observed at the colder stations yield saturation mixing ratios that are consistent with the range of measured stratospheric water vapor. Examination of the daily variations in temperature at a given station reveals a more complex pattern than indicated by the monthly averages. On many days temperatures at the colder longitudes correspond to water vapor abundances that are less than observed in the stratosphere despite the favorable comparison of the monthly means. The results point to the need for a series of water vapor soundings at selected longitudes and times in order to define the extent to which the tropical tropopause controls the stratospheric water vapor abundance.

Frederick, J. E.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Empirical Estimation of Shortest Route Length along U.S. Interstate Highways Based on Great Circle Distance

In this study, 98 regression models were specified for easily estimating shortest distances based on great circle distances along the U.S. interstate highways nationwide and for each of the continental 48 states. This allows transportation professionals to quickly generate distance, or even distance matrix, without expending significant efforts on complicated shortest path calculations. For simple usage by all professionals, all models are present in the simple linear regression form. Only one explanatory variable, the great circle distance, is considered to calculate the route distance. For each geographic scope (i.e., the national or one of the states), two different models were considered, with and without the intercept. Based on the adjusted R-squared, it was observed that models without intercepts generally have better fitness. Additionally, all these models generally have good fitness with the linear regression relationship between the great circle distance and route distance. At the state level, significant variations in the slope coefficients between the state-level models were also observed. Furthermore, a preliminary analysis of the effect of highway density on this variation was conducted.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS2014

Chromospheric Variability: Analysis of 36 years of Time Series from the National Solar Observatory/Sacramento Peak Ca II K-line Monitoring Program

Analysis of more than 36 years of time series of seven parameters measured in the NSO/AFRL/Sac Peak K-line monitoring program elucidates five elucidates five components of the variation: (1) the solar cycle (period approx. 11 years), (2) quasi-periodic variations (periods approx 100 days), (3) a broad band stochastic process (wide range of periods), (4) rotational modulation, and (5) random observational errors. Correlation and power spectrum analyses elucidate periodic and aperiodic variation of the chromospheric parameters. Time-frequency analysis illuminates periodic and quasi periodic signals, details of frequency modulation due to differential rotation, and in particular elucidates the rather complex harmonic structure (1) and (2) at time scales in the range approx 0.1 - 10 years. These results using only full-disk data further suggest that similar analyses will be useful at detecting and characterizing differential rotation in stars from stellar light-curves such as those being produced by NASA's Kepler observatory. Component (3) consists of variations over a range of timescales, in the manner of a 1/f random noise process. A timedependent Wilson-Bappu effect appears to be present in the solar cycle variations (1), but not in the stochastic process (3). Component (4) characterizes differential rotation of the active regions, and (5) is of course not characteristic of solar variability, but the fact that the observational errors are quite small greatly facilitates the analysis of the other components. The recent data suggest that the current cycle is starting late and may be relatively weak. The data analyzed in this paper can be found at the National Solar Observatory web site http://nsosp.nso.edu/cak_mon/, or by file transfer protocol at ftp://ftp.nso.edu/idl/cak.parameters.

Solar physics↗
NASA NTRS1973

A study of the diurnal variation in the thermosphere as derived by satellite drag

An analysis was performed on 29,574 densities derived from the drag of 10 satellites to determine simultaneously the parameters of the solar-activity effect in the thermosphere on the one hand, and the amplitude and shape of the diurnal-variation curve on the other. This paper reports on the study of the diurnal variation only. Although a considerable amount of smoothing is inherent in the drag method, it seemed useful to see whether any change could be detected in the shape of the diurnal-variation curve with height, latitude and solar activity. None was detected; the curve remains remarkably stable, symmetric, with a maximum at 14 hr 20 min L.S.T. and a minimum at 2 hr 20 min L.S.T. A systematic variation of the temperature range with height is observed when static models are used to derive it.

Jacchia, L. G.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Parametric study of variation in cargo-airplane performance related to progression from current to spanloader designs

A parametric analysis was made to investigate the relationship between current cargo airplanes and possible future designs that may differ greatly in both size and configuration. The method makes use of empirical scaling laws developed from statistical studies of data from current and advanced airplanes and, in addition, accounts for payload density, effects of span distributed load, and variations in tail area ratio. The method is believed to be particularly useful for exploratory studies of design and technology options for large airplanes. The analysis predicts somewhat more favorable variations of the ratios of payload to gross weight and block fuel to payload as the airplane size is increased than has been generally understood from interpretations of the cube-square law. In terms of these same ratios, large all wing (spanloader) designs show an advantage over wing-fuselage designs.

Toll, T. A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Application of prophage sequence analysis to investigate a disease outbreak involving Salmonella Adjame, a rare serovar and implications for the population structure

Introduction Outbreak investigation of foodborne salmonellosis is hindered when the food source is contaminated by multiple strains of Salmonella , creating difficulties matching an incriminated organism recovered from patients with the specific strain in the suspect food. An outbreak of the rare Salmonella Adjame was caused by multiple strains of the organism as revealed by single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) variation. The use of highly discriminatory prophage analysis to characterize strains of Salmonella should enable a more precise strain characterization and aid the investigation of foodborne salmonellosis. Methods We have carried out genomic analysis of S. Adjame strains recovered during the course of a recent outbreak and compared them with other strains of the organism ( n = 38 strains), using SNPs to evaluate strain differences present in the core genome, and prophage sequence typing (PST) to evaluate the accessory genome. Phylogenetic analyses were performed using both total prophage content and conserved prophages. Results The PST analysis of the S. Adjame isolates showed a high degree of strain heterogeneity. We observed small clusters made up of 2-6 isolates ( n = 27) and singletons ( n = 11) in stark contrast with the three clusters observed by SNP analysis. In total, we detected 24 prophages of which only four were highly prevalent, namely: Entero_p88 (36/38 strains), Salmon_SEN34 (35/38 strains), Burkho_phiE255 (33/38 strains) and Edward_GF (28/38 strains). Despite the marked strain diversity seen with prophage analysis, the distribution of the four most common prophages matched the clustering observed using core genome. Discussion Mutations in the core and accessory genomes of S. Adjame have shed light on the evolutionary relationships among the Adjame strains and demonstrated a convergence of the variations observed in both fractions of the genome. We conclude that core and accessory genomes analyses should be adopted in foodborne bacteria outbreak investigations to provide a more accurate strain description and facilitate reliable matching of isolates from patients and incriminated food sources. The outcomes should translate to a better understanding of the microbial population structure and an 46 improved source attribution in foodborne illnesses.

Gao, Ruimin↗