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At least 865 records · Page 48
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1977

DSN system performance test Doppler noise models; noncoherent configuration

The newer model for variance, the Allan technique, now adopted for testing, is analyzed in the subject mode. A model is generated (including considerable contribution from the station secondary frequency standard), and rationalized with existing data. The variance model is definitely sound; the Allan technique mates theory and measure. The mean-frequency model is an estimate; this problem is yet to be rigorously resolved. The unaltered defining expressions are noncovergent, and the observed mean is quite erratic.

Bunce, R.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Analysis and application of minimum variance discrete linear system identification

An on-line minimum variance (MV) parameter identifier is developed which embodies both accuracy and computational efficiency. The formulation results in a linear estimation problem with both additive and multiplicative noise (AMN). The resulting filter which utilizes both the covariance of the parameter vector itself and the covariance of the error in identification is proven to be mean-square convergent and mean-square consistent. The MV parameter identification scheme is then used to construct a stable state and parameter estimation algorithm.

Kotob, S.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Within-Tunnel Variations in Pressure Data for Three Transonic Wind Tunnels

This paper compares the results of pressure measurements made on the same test article with the same test matrix in three transonic wind tunnels. A comparison is presented of the unexplained variance associated with polar replicates acquired in each tunnel. The impact of a significance component of systematic (not random) unexplained variance is reviewed, and the results of analyses of variance are presented to assess the degree of significant systematic error in these representative wind tunnel tests. Total uncertainty estimates are reported for 140 samples of pressure data, quantifying the effects of within-polar random errors and between-polar systematic bias errors.

DeLoach, Richard↗
DOE OSTI2024

Experimental Whole-Ecosystem Warming Enables Novel Estimation of Snow Cover and Depth Sensitivities to Temperature, and Quantification of the Snow-Albedo Feedback Effect

Climate change is reducing the amount, duration, and extent of snow across high-latitude ecosystems. But, in landscapes where persistent winter snow cover develops, experimental platforms to specifically investigate interactions between warming and changes in snowpack, and impacts on ecosystem processes, have been lacking. We leveraged a whole-ecosystem warming experiment in a boreal peatland forest to quantify how snow duration, depth, and fractional cover vary with warming of up to +9°C. We found that every snow-related quantity we examined declined precipitously as the amount of warming increased. The importance of deep, continuous snow cover for moderating shallow soil temperature is highlighted by an increase in soil temperature variance and the frequency of short-duration freeze-thaw cycles in the warmer plots. We used a paired-plot approach to estimate the magnitude of the snow-albedo feedback effect, and demonstrate that albedo-driven warming linked to reduced snow cover varies between December (+0.4°C increase in maximum air temperature) and March (+1.2°C increase) because of differences in insolation. Overall, results show that even modest future warming will have profound impacts on northern winters and cold-season ecosystem processes. Plot-level data from this warming experiment, and emergent relationships between warming and quantities related to snow cover and duration, could be of enormous value for testing and improving the representation of snow processes in simulation models, especially under future climate scenarios that are outside of the range of historically observed variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1994

Equatorial wave activity derived from fluctuations in observed convection

The spectrum of equatorial wave activity propagating vertically into the stratosphere is calculated from high-resolution imagery of the global convective pattern. Synoptic Global Cloud Imagery (GCI), constructed from six satellites simultaneously observing the earth, is used to diabatically force the linearized primitive equations. Having resolution of 0.5 deg and 3 h, that imagery captures the dominant scales of organized convection, including several harmonics of the diurnal cycle. Its global coverage with high space-time resolution allows the GCI to represent heating variability and dynamical behavior excited by it over a wide range of scales. The dynamical response above the heating is evaluated globally in terms of a space-time spectrum of Hough modes, one which includes planetary-scale Kelvin waves, Rossby waves, and gravity waves down to the resolution of the GCI. The geopotential response, which is indicative of temperature fluctuations observed by satellite, is very red in frequency. Therefore, planetary-scale waves with periods longer than two days dominate the spectrum of geopotential, while high-frequency gravity waves make a comparatively small contribution. Some 80% of the geopotential variance is accounted for by the Kelvin and gravest-symmetric Rossby modes, while the Rossby-gravity mode is comparatively weak. In horizontal eddy motion, the excited wave spectrum is still dominated by planetary-scale components. However, meridional wind fluctuations associated with the Rossby-gravity mode have variance comparable to that of zonal wind fluctuations associated with the Kelvin mode, even though the Rossby-gravity mode is nearly invisible in the geopotential response. Estimates of tropospheric heating lead to amplitudes and propagation characteristics that are broadly consistent with satellite and radiosonde observations of wave activity in the lower stratosphere. The space-time spectrum of EP flux is significantly whiter than the response in either geopotential or motion. Gravity waves of small scale and high frequency carry a large fraction of the upward flux. Although it dominates eastward variance of geopotential and motion, the Kelvin mode carries only about 50% of the eastward EP flux at phase speeds of 20-40 m/s and only 35% of the total eastward flux transmitted to the stratosphere. The remainder is carried by the gravity wave spectrum, which carries nearly all of the westward flux at phase speeds greater than 20 m/s. The gravity wave spectrum also contributes significantly at phase speeds of 10-20 m/s, where only 25% of the flux is accounted for by zonal wavenumbers less than 20. The broad nature of the gravity wave spectrum suggests its absorption at critical levels will be distributed over a deep layer of the middle atmosphere.

Bergman, John W.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Ensemble Kalman filters for dynamical systems with unresolved turbulence

Ensemble Kalman filters are developed for turbulent dynamical systems where the forecast model does not resolve all the active scales of motion. Coarse-resolution models are intended to predict the large-scale part of the true dynamics, but observations invariably include contributions from both the resolved large scales and the unresolved small scales. The error due to the contribution of unresolved scales to the observations, called ‘representation’ or ‘representativeness’ error, is often included as part of the observation error, in addition to the raw measurement error, when estimating the large-scale part of the system. It is here shown how stochastic superparameterization (a multiscale method for subgridscale parameterization) can be used to provide estimates of the statistics of the unresolved scales. In addition, a new framework is developed wherein small-scale statistics can be used to estimate both the resolved and unresolved components of the solution. The one-dimensional test problem from dispersive wave turbulence used here is computationally tractable yet is particularly difficult for filtering because of the non-Gaussian extreme event statistics and substantial small scale turbulence: a shallow energy spectrum proportional to k{sup −5/6} (where k is the wavenumber) results in two-thirds of the climatological variance being carried by the unresolved small scales. Because the unresolved scales contain so much energy, filters that ignore the representation error fail utterly to provide meaningful estimates of the system state. Inclusion of a time-independent climatological estimate of the representation error in a standard framework leads to inaccurate estimates of the large-scale part of the signal; accurate estimates of the large scales are only achieved by using stochastic superparameterization to provide evolving, large-scale dependent predictions of the small-scale statistics. Again, because the unresolved scales contain so much energy, even an accurate estimate of the large-scale part of the system does not provide an accurate estimate of the true state. By providing simultaneous estimates of both the large- and small-scale parts of the solution, the new framework is able to provide accurate estimates of the true system state.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1992

Analysis of a spatial tracking subsystem for optical communications

Spatial tracking plays a very critical role in designing optical communication systems because of the small angular beamwidth associated with the optical signal. One possible solution for spatial tracking is to use a nutating mirror which dithers the incoming beam at a rate much higher than the mechanical disturbances. A power detector then senses the change in detected power as the signal is reflected off the nutating mirror. This signal is then correlated with the nutator driver signals to obtain estimates of the azimuth and elevation tracking signals to control the fast scanning mirrors. A theoretical analysis is performed for a spatial tracking system using a nutator disturbed by shot noise and mechanical vibrations. Contributions of shot noise and mechanical vibrations to the total tracking error variance are derived. Given the vibration spectrum and the expected signal power, there exists an optimal amplitude for the nutation which optimizes the receiver performance. The expected performance of a nutator based system is estimated based on the choice of nutation amplitude.

Win, Moe Z.↗
DOE OSTI2017

A scalable design of experiments framework for optimal sensor placement

Here, we present a scalable design of an experiments framework for sensor placement in systems described by partial differential equations (PDEs). In particular, we aim to compute optimal sensor locations by minimizing the uncertainty of parameters estimated from Bayesian inverse problems and where the system. The resulting problem is a computationally intractable mixed-integer nonlinear program constrained by PDEs. We approach this problem with two heuristics used in compressed sensing and optimal control literature: a sparsity-inducing approach and a sum-up rounding approach. We also investigate metrics to guide the design of experiments (the total flow variance and the A-optimal design criterion) and analyze the effect of different noise structures (white and colored). Using an application in natural gas pipelines, we conclude that the sum-up rounding approach approach gives the best results and produces shrinking gaps with increasing mesh resolution. We also observe that convergence for the white noise measurement error case is slower than for the colored noise case. For A-optimal design, the solution is close to a uniform distribution of sensors along the pipeline while for the flow variance design the distribution is unstructured.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Towards retrieving critical relative humidity from ground-based remote sensing observations

Nearly all parameterisations of large-scale cloud require the specification of the critical relative humidity (RHcrit). This is the gridbox-mean relative humidity at which the subgrid fluctuations in temperature and water vapour become so large that part of a subsaturated gridbox becomes saturated and cloud starts to form. Until recently, the lack of high-resolution observations of temperature and moisture variability has hindered a reasonable estimate of the RHcrit from observations. However, with the advent of ground-based measurements from Raman lidar, it becomes possible to obtain long records of temperature and moisture (co-)variances with sub-minute sample rates. Lidar observations are inherently noisy and any analysis of higher-order moments will be very dependent on the ability to quantify and remove this noise. We present an exporatory study aimed at understanding whether current noise levels of lidar-retrieved temperature and water vapour are sufficient to obtain a reasonable estimate of the RHcrit. We show that vertical profiles of RHcrit can be derived for a gridbox length of up to about 30 km (120) with an uncertainty of about 4 % (2 %). RHcrit tends to be smallest near the scale height and seems to be fairly insensitive to the horizontal grid spacing at the scales investigated here (30 - 120 km). However, larger sensitivity was found to the vertical grid spacing. As the grid spacing decreases from 400 to 100 m, RHcrit is observed to increase by about 6 %, which is more than the uncertainty in the RHcrit retrievals.

Van Weverberg, Kwinten↗
NASA NTRS2006

Estimation Of Organ Doses From Solar Particle Events For Future Space Exploration Missions

Radiation protection practices define the effective dose as a weighted sum of equivalent dose over major organ sites for radiation cancer risks. Since a crew personnel dosimeter does not make direct measurement of the effective dose, it has been estimated with skin-dose measurements and radiation transport codes for ISS and STS missions. If sufficient protection is not provided near solar maximum, the radiation risk can be significant due to exposure to sporadic solar particle events (SPEs) as well as to the continuous galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) on future exploratory-class and long-duration missions. For accurate estimates of overall fatal cancer risks from SPEs, the specific doses at various blood forming organs (BFOs) were considered, because proton fluences and doses vary considerably across marrow regions. Previous estimates of BFO doses from SPEs have used an average body-shielding distribution for the bone marrow based on the computerized anatomical man model (CAM). With the development of an 82-point body-shielding distribution at BFOs, the mean and variance of SPE doses in the major active marrow regions (head and neck, chest, abdomen, pelvis and thighs) will be presented. Consideration of the detailed distribution of bone marrow sites is one of many requirements to improve the estimation of effective doses for radiation cancer risks.

Kim, Myung-Hee↗
DOE OSTI2015

Detectability of historical trends in station‐based precipitation characteristics over the continental United States

Abstract The goal of this paper is to detect secular trends in observed, station‐based precipitation variations and extreme event occurrences over the United States. By definition, detectable trends are those that are unlikely to have arisen from internal variability alone. To represent this internal variability, we use station‐specific, seasonally varying, daily time scale stationary stochastic weather models—models in which the simulated interannual‐to‐multidecadal precipitation variance is purely the result of the random evolution of daily precipitation events within a given time period—to first estimate the trends in various means and extremes that can occur even with fixed, climatological daily precipitation characteristics. Detection of secular trends in the observed climate—whether naturally or anthropogenically induced—can then be defined relative to this stochastic variability, i.e., as trends in the means and/or extremes that are likely to have occurred only through a change in the underlying precipitation characteristics. The derived results have two important ramifications. First, they identify “hot spot” regions in which trends in precipitation characteristics are already emerging from within the envelope of stochastic variability, including (but not limited to) positive trends in annual occurrence across most of the U.S. and positive trends in annual intensity and heavy‐event accumulations across the Interior Plains and around the Great Lakes. Further, they identify “sentinel” metrics which show the greatest detectability—e.g., annual precipitation occurrence and intensity—as well as those which show the least detectability and hence are unlikely to produce any statistically meaningful signals—e.g., seasonal total precipitation and extremes.

Anderson, Bruce T.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Radiation Therapy Intensification for Solid Tumors: A Systematic Review of Randomized Trials

Purpose: To systematically review the outcomes of randomized trials testing radiation therapy (RT) intensification, including both dose escalation and/or the use of altered fractionation, as a strategy to improve disease control for a number of malignancies. Methods and Materials: We performed a literature search to identify randomized trials testing RT intensification for cancers of the central nervous system, head and neck, breast, lung, esophagus, rectum, and prostate. Findings were described qualitatively. Where adequate data were available, pooled estimates for the effect of RT intensification on local control (LC) or overall survival (OS) were obtained using the inverse variance method. Results: In primary central nervous system tumors, esophageal cancer, and rectal cancer, randomized trials have not demonstrated that RT intensification improves clinical outcomes. In breast cancer and prostate cancer, dose escalation has been shown to improve LC or biochemical disease control but not OS. Radiation therapy intensification may improve LC and OS in head and neck and lung cancers, but these benefits have generally been limited to studies that did not incorporate concurrent chemotherapy. Conclusions: In randomized trials, the benefits of RT intensification have largely been restricted to trials in which concurrent chemotherapy was not used. Novel strategies to optimize the incorporation of RT in the multimodality treatment of solid tumors should be explored.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2013

Isotropic three-dimensional MRI-Fricke-infused gel dosimetry

Purpose: Fricke-infused gel has been shown to be a simple and attainable method for the conformal measurement of absorbed radiation dose. Nevertheless, its accuracy is seriously hindered by the irreversible ferric ion diffusion during magnetic resonance imaging, particularly when three-dimensional (3D) dose measurement in radiosurgery is considered. In this study, the authors developed a fast three-dimensional spin-echo based Fricke gel dosimetry technique to reduce the adverse effects of ferric ion diffusion and to obtain an accurate isotropic 3D dose measurement. Methods: A skull shaped phantom containing Fricke-infused gel was irradiated using Leksell Gamma Knife. The rapid image-based dosimetry technique was applied with the use of a 3D fast spin-echo magnetic resonance imaging sequence. The authors mathematically derived and experimentally validated the correlations between dose-response characteristics and parameters of the 3D fast spin-echo MR imaging sequence. Absorbed dose profiles were assessed and compared to the calculated profiles given by the Gamma Knife treatment planning system. Coefficient of variance (CV%) and coefficient of determination (R{sup 2}) were used to evaluate the precision of dose-response curve estimation. The agreement between the measured and the planned 3D dose distributions was quantified by gamma-index analysis of two acceptance criteria. Results: Proper magnetic resonance imaging parameters were explored to render an accurate three-dimensional absorbed dose mapping with a 1 mm{sup 3} isotropic image resolution. The efficacy of the dose-response estimation was approved by an R{sup 2} > 0.99 and an average CV% of 1.6%. Average gamma pass-rate between the experimentally measured and GammaPlan calculated dose distributions were 83.8% and 99.7% for 2%/2 and 3%/3 mm criteria, respectively. Conclusions: With the designed MR imaging sequence and parameters, total 3D MR acquisition time was confined to within 20 min postirradiation, during which time ferric ion diffusion effects were negligible, thus enabling an accurate 3D radiation dose measurement.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Technical Note: Statistical dependences between channels in radiochromic film readings. Implications in multichannel dosimetry

Purpose: This note studies the statistical relationships between color channels in radiochromic film readings with flatbed scanners. The same relationships are studied for noise. Finally, their implications for multichannel film dosimetry are discussed. Methods: Radiochromic films exposed to wedged fields of 6 MV energy were read in a flatbed scanner. The joint histograms of pairs of color channels were used to obtain the joint and conditional probability density functions between channels. Then, the conditional expectations and variances of one channel given another channel were obtained. Noise was extracted from film readings by means of a multiresolution analysis. Two different dose ranges were analyzed, the first one ranging from 112 to 473 cGy and the second one from 52 to 1290 cGy. Results: For the smallest dose range, the conditional expectations of one channel given another channel can be approximated by linear functions, while the conditional variances are fairly constant. The slopes of the linear relationships between channels can be used to simplify the expression that estimates the dose by means of the multichannel method. The slopes of the linear relationships between each channel and the red one can also be interpreted as weights in the final contribution to dose estimation. However, for the largest dose range, the conditional expectations of one channel given another channel are no longer linear functions. Finally, noises in different channels were found to correlate weakly. Conclusions: Signals present in different channels of radiochromic film readings show a strong statistical dependence. By contrast, noise correlates weakly between channels. For the smallest dose range analyzed, the linear behavior between the conditional expectation of one channel given another channel can be used to simplify calculations in multichannel film dosimetry.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of nuclear data covariance libraries on uncertainty quantification of sodium cooled fast reactor simulation

Uncertainty quantification in core modelling to assess reactor performance is a regular practice to identify design safety limits. Best-estimate plus uncertainty (BEPU) methods are commonly used to propagate uncertainties to core responses from input parameters, characterized by variance-covariance libraries. This study evaluates the impact of different covariance libraries on the uncertainty associated with core safety parameters and their propagation through reactor transient modelling for a metallic core (ABR-1000). The COMAC-1.0, COMMARA-2.0, and COMMARA-2.1 covariance libraries are used to propagate nuclear data uncertainties to neutron feedback coefficients using the Generalized Perturbation Theory, then through transient safety analyses to establish the confidence interval for safety performance of the reactor using stochastic sampling. The considered transients include Unprotected Transient Over Power and Unprotected Loss Of Flow. Most influential nuclide and reaction pairs in different variance-covariance libraries are identified and their impact on the uncertainty of safety parameters are evaluated. Significant differences were observed between uncertainties from COMAC compared to COMMARA libraries. Uncertainties from COMMARA libraries were consistently larger than COMAC for all cases. For structure, coolant density feedback coefficients and control rod worth, total nuclear data uncertainties were approximately 50% larger for COMMARA than COMAC. Differences were also observed in identification of top contributors of uncertainty in terms of reaction-cross sections. For instance, largest contribution to total uncertainty of radial expansion coefficient from COMMARA-2.0 and 2.1 originates from Na{sup 23} P1 Elastic cross section (0.81%) but from Pu{sup 239} Fission (0.53%) with COM C-1.0. Such differences are evaluated in this research for all quantities of interest. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS1982

An identification algorithm for linear stochastic systems with time delays

Linear discrete stochastic control systems containing unknown multiple time delays, plant parameters and noise variances are considered. An algorithm is established which uses the maximum-likelihood technique to identify the unknown parameters. An estimated likelihood function is evaluated based on the previous parameter estimates, which in turn generates a new descent direction vector to update the unknown parameters. The delays and plant parameters are identified in their respective parameter spaces. An example of a second-order stochastic system has been implemented by digital simulation to demonstrate the applicability of the algorithm.

Leondes, C. T.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Covariance of biophysical data with digital topograpic and land use maps over the FIFE site

This paper discusses the biophysical stratification of the FIFE site, implementation of the stratification utilizing geographic information system methods, and validation of the stratification with respect to field measurements of biomass, Bowen ratio, soil moisture, and the greenness vegetation index (GVI) derived from TM satellite data. Maps of burning and topographic position were significantly associated with variation in GVI, biomass, and Bowen ratio. The stratified design did not significantly alter the estimated site-wide means for surface climate parameters but accounted for between 25 and 45 percent of the sample variance depending on the variable.

Davis, F. W.↗
NASA NTRS1992

The wavenumber spectra of scatterometer-derived winds

The accuracy of scatterometer-derived winds using a frequency-domain analysis and simulation is studied. The wavenumber spectra of the Seasat-A-scatterometer (SASS)-derived wind fields have been observed to be accentuated relative to the input wind field. The results of extensive simulations designed to test this observation are reported. Actual SASS measurements of the normalized radar backscatter (NRB) over an orbit (rev) are used as a template to generate simulated NRB measurements. Pointwise estimation of winds from the simulated NRB measurements is accomplished with the ambiguity closest to the true wind selected as the unique wind vector estimate. For comparison, winds are also estimated using a new model-based approach. After wind retrieval, the spectra of the estimated wind fields are computed and compared to the input wind field. The high wavenumber portion of the spectra of the pointwise estimated winds was higher than the spectra of the true winds by an amount which depends on the wind speed variance.

Long, D. G.↗