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At least 865 records · Page 48

Investigating the Response of Land-Atmosphere Interactions and Feedbacks to Spatial Representation of Irrigation in a Coupled Modeling Framework

The transport of water, heat, and momentum from the surface to the atmosphere is dependent in part on the 10 characteristics of the land surface. Together with the model physics, parameterization schemes, and parameters employed, land datasets determine the spatial variability in land surface states (i.e., soil moisture and temperature) and fluxes. Despite the importance of these datasets, they are often chosen out of convenience or regional limitations without due assessment of their impacts on model results. Irrigation is an anthropogenic form of land heterogeneity that has been shown to alter the land surface energy balance, ambient weather, and local circulations. As such, irrigation schemes are becoming more 15 prevalent in weather and climate models with rapid developments in dataset availability and parameterization scheme complexity. Thus, to address pragmatic issues related to modeling irrigation, this study uses a high-resolution, regional coupled modeling system to investigate the impacts of irrigation dataset selection on land-atmosphere (L-A) coupling using a case study from the Great Plains Irrigation Experiment (GRAINEX) field campaign. The simulations are assessed in the context of irrigated versus non-irrigated regions, subregions across the irrigation gradient, and sub-grid scale process 20 representation in coarser scale models. The results show that L-A coupling is sensitive to the choice of irrigation dataset and resolution and that the irrigation impact on surface fluxes and near surface meteorology can be dominant, conditioned on the details of the irrigation map (i.e., boundaries, heterogeneity, etc), or minimal. A consistent finding across several analyses was that even a low percentage of irrigation fraction (i.e., 4-16%) can have significant local and downstream atmospheric impacts (e.g., lower PBL height), suggesting that representation of boundaries and heterogeneous areas within irrigated 25 regions is particularly important for the modeling of irrigation impacts on the atmosphere in this model. When viewing the simulations presented here as a proxy for ‘ideal’ tiling in a Earth System Model scale gridbox, the results show that some ‘tiles’ will reach critical nonlinear moisture and planetary boundary layer (PBL) thresholds that could be important for clouds and convection, implying that heterogeneity resulting from irrigation should be taken into consideration in new sub-grid land-atmosphere exchange parameterizations.

Patricia Lawston-Parker↗

Quantitative Estimation of the Impact of European Teleconnections on Interannual Variation of East Asian Winter Temperature and Monsoon

The impact of European teleconnections including the East AtlanticWest Russia (EA-WR), the Scandinavia (SCA), and the East Atlantic (EA) on East Asian winter temperature variability was quantified and compared with the combined effect of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Western Pacific (WP), and the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which are originated in the Northern Hemispheric high-latitudes or the Pacific. Three European teleconnections explained 22-25 percent of the total monthly upper-tropospheric height variance over Eurasia. Regression analysis revealed warming by EA-WR and EA and cooling by SCA over mid-latitude East Asia during their positive phase and vice versa. Temperature anomalies were largely explained by the advective temperature change process at the lower troposphere. The average spatial correlation over East Asia (90-180E, 10-80N) for the last 34 winters between observed and reconstructed temperature comprised of AO, WP and ENSO effect (AWE) was approximately 0.55, and adding the European teleconnection components (ESE) to the reconstructed temperature improved the correlation up to approximately 0.64. Lower level atmospheric structure demonstrated that approximately five of the last 34 winters were significantly better explained by ESE than AWE to determine East Asian seasonal winter temperatures. We also compared the impact between EA-WR and AO on the 1) East Asian winter monsoon, 2) cold surge, and 3) the Siberian high. These three were strongly coupled, and their spatial features and interannual variation were somewhat better explained by EA-WR than AO. Results suggest that the EA-WR impact must be treated more importantly than previously thought for a better understanding of East Asian winter temperature and monsoon variability.

East Asian Winter Monsoon↗

A Plan for Measuring Climatic Scale Global Precipitation Variability: The Global Precipitation Mission

The outstanding success of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) stemmed from a near flawless launch and deployment, a highly successful measurement campaign, achievement of all original scientific objectives before the mission life had ended, and the accomplishment of a number of unanticipated but important additional scientific advances. This success and the realization that satellite rainfall datasets are now a foremost tool in the understanding of decadal climate variability has helped motivate a comprehensive global rainfall measuring mission, called 'The Global Precipitation Mission' (GPM). The intent of this mission is to address looming scientific questions arising in the context of global climate-water cycle interactions, hydrometeorology, weather prediction, the global carbon budget, and atmosphere-biosphere-cryosphere chemistry. This paper addresses the status of that mission currently planed for launch in the early 2007 time frame. The GPM design involves a nine-member satellite constellation, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like 'core' satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band radar (df-PR) and a TMI-like radiometer. The other eight members of the constellation can be considered drones to the core satellite, each carrying some type of passive microwave radiometer measuring across the 10.7-85 GHz frequency range, likely based on both real and synthetic aperture antenna technology and to include a combination of new lightweight dedicated GPM drones and both co-existing operational and experimental satellites carrying passive microwave radiometers (i.e., SSM/l, AMSR, etc.). The constellation is designed to provide a minimum of three-hour sampling at any spot on the globe using sun-synchronous orbit architecture, with the core satellite providing relevant measurements on internal cloud precipitation microphysical processes. The core satellite also enables 'training' and 'calibration' of the drone retrieval process. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Smith, Eric A.↗

Accelerated Training for Large Feedforward Neural Networks

In this paper we introduce a new training algorithm, the scaled variable metric (SVM) method. Our approach attempts to increase the convergence rate of the modified variable metric method. It is also combined with the RBackprop algorithm, which computes the product of the matrix of second derivatives (Hessian) with an arbitrary vector. The RBackprop method allows us to avoid computationally expensive, direct line searches. In addition, it can be utilized in the new, 'predictive' updating technique of the inverse Hessian approximation. We have used directional slope testing to adjust the step size and found that this strategy works exceptionally well in conjunction with the Rbackprop algorithm. Some supplementary, but nevertheless important enhancements to the basic training scheme such as improved setting of a scaling factor for the variable metric update and computationally more efficient procedure for updating the inverse Hessian approximation are presented as well. We summarize by comparing the SVM method with four first- and second- order optimization algorithms including a very effective implementation of the Levenberg-Marquardt method. Our tests indicate promising computational speed gains of the new training technique, particularly for large feedforward networks, i.e., for problems where the training process may be the most laborious.

Stepniewski, Slawomir W.↗

Influence of Sea-Ice Anomalies on Antarctic Precipitation Using Source Attribution in the Community Earth System Model

We conduct sensitivity experiments using a general circulation model that has an explicit water source tagging capability forced by prescribed composites of pre-industrial sea-ice concentrations (SICs) and corresponding sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to understand the impact of sea-ice anomalies on regional evaporation, moisture transport and source–receptor relationships for Antarctic precipitation in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. Surface sensible heat fluxes, evaporation and column-integrated water vapor are larger over Southern Ocean (SO) areas with lower SICs. Changes in Antarctic precipitation and its source attribution with SICs have a strong spatial variability. Among the tagged source regions, the Southern Ocean (south of 50∘ S) contributes the most (40 %) to the Antarctic total precipitation, followed by more northerly ocean basins, most notably the South Pacific Ocean (27%), southern Indian Ocean (16 %) and South Atlantic Ocean (11 %). Comparing two experiments prescribed with high and low pre-industrial SICs, respectively, the annual mean Antarctic precipitation is about 150 Gt yr−1 (or 6 %) more in the lower SIC case than in the higher SIC case. This difference is larger than the model-simulated interannual variability in Antarctic precipitation (99 Gt yr−1). The contrast in contribution from the Southern Ocean, 102 Gt yr−1, is even more significant compared to the interannual variability of 35 Gt yr−1 in Antarctic precipitation that originates from the Southern Ocean. The horizontal transport pathways from individual vapor source regions to Antarctica are largely determined by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Vapor from lower-latitude source regions takes elevated pathways to Antarctica. In contrast, vapor from the Southern Ocean moves southward within the lower troposphere to the Antarctic continent along moist isentropes that are largely shaped by local ambient conditions and coastal topography. This study also highlights the importance of atmospheric dynamics in affecting the thermodynamic impact of sea-ice anomalies associated with natural variability on Antarctic precipitation. Our analyses of the seasonal contrast in changes of basin-scale evaporation, moisture flux and precipitation suggest that the impact of SIC anomalies on regional Antarctic precipitation depends on dynamic changes that arise from SIC–SST perturbations along with internal variability. The latter appears to have a more significant effect on the moisture transport in austral winter than in summer.

Wang, Hailong↗

Magnetotail energy storage and the variability of the magnetotail current sheet

The antiparallel field configuration in the earth magnetotail is a prime location to search for the important astrophysical process known as magnetic reconnection. The magnetic evidence that reconnection occurs in the earth's magnetotail is that the energy of the tail invariably decreases at the time of global substorm onsets, and that an increased number of closed field lines are seen in the near-earth magnetotail after substorms. This increased northward flux is often convecting earthward from the expected site of the X line after the substorm onset, while southward flux is often convecting tailward. Prior to a substorm, energy accumulates in the tail as the field assumes a more taillike configuration with a smaller field component across the equatorial plane. The high-beta plasma sheet becomes thin and has been observed to be at least as thin as a few thousand km near substorm onset times. The small Bn component and thin plasma sheet are the conditions which favor the onset of the tearing-mode instability, which is thought to lead to neutral-line formation and the reconnection associated with substorm onset. Intervals of weak and highly variable fields in the plasma sheet provide evidence for the tearing-mode instability.

Fairfield, D. H.↗

Remote Sensing of the Absorption Coefficients and Chlorophyll a Concentration in the U.S. Southern Middle Atlantic Bight from SeaWiFS and MODIS-Aqua

At present, satellite remote sensing of coastal water quality and constituent concentration is subject to large errors as compared to the capability of satellite sensors in oceanic waters. In this study, field measurements collected on a series of cruises within U.S. southern Middle Atlantic Bight (SMAB) were applied to improve retrievals of satellite ocean color products in order to examine the factors that regulate the bio-optical properties within the continental shelf waters of the SMAB. The first objective was to develop improvements in satellite retrievals of absorption coefficients of phytoplankton (a(sub ph)), colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) (a(sub g)), non-pigmented particles (a(sub d)), and non-pigmented particles plus CDOM (a(sub dg)), and chlorophyll a concentration ([Chl_a]). Several algorithms were compared to derive constituent absorption coefficients from remote sensing reflectance (R(sub rs)) ratios. The validation match-ups showed that the mean absolute percent differences (MAPD) were typically less than 35%, although higher errors were found for a(sub d) retrievals. Seasonal and spatial variability of satellite-derived absorption coefficients and [Chl_a] was apparent and consistent with field data. CDOM is a major contributor to the bio-optical properties of the SMAB, accounting for 35-70% of total light absorption by particles plus CDOM at 443 nm, as compared to 30-45% for phytoplankton and 0-20% for non-pigmented particles. The overestimation of [Chl_a] from the operational satellite algorithms may be attributed to the strong CDOM absorption in this region. River discharge is important in controlling the bio-optical environment, but cannot explain all of the regional and seasonal variability of biogeochemical constituents in the SMAB.

Pan, Xiaoju↗

Investigating Uncertainty in Predicting Carbon Dynamics in North American Biomes: Putting Support-Effect Bias in Perspective

A fundamental strategy in NASA's Earth Observing System's (EOS) monitoring of vegetation and its contribution to the global carbon cycle is to rely on deterministic, process-based ecosystem models to make predictions of carbon flux over large regions. These models are parameterized (that is, the input variables are derived) using remotely sensed images such as those from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), ground measurements and interpolated maps. Since early applications of these models, investigators have noted that results depend partly on the spatial support of the input variables. In general, the larger the support of the input data, the greater the chance that the effects of important components of the ecosystem will be averaged out. A review of previous work shows that using large supports can cause either positive or negative bias in carbon flux predictions. To put the magnitude and direction of these biases in perspective, we must quantify the range of uncertainty on our best measurements of carbon-related variables made on equivalent areas. In other words, support-effect bias should be placed in the context of prediction uncertainty from other sources. If the range of uncertainty at the smallest support is less than the support-effect bias, more research emphasis should probably be placed on support sizes that are intermediate between those of field measurements and MODIS. If the uncertainty range at the smallest support is larger than the support-effect bias, the accuracy of MODIS-based predictions will be difficult to quantify and more emphasis should be placed on field-scale characterization and sampling. This talk will describe methods to address these issues using a field measurement campaign in North America and "upscaling" using geostatistical estimation and simulation.

Dungan, Jennifer L.↗

What Controls the Vertical Distribution of Aerosol? Relationships Between Process Sensitivity in HadGEM3-UKCA and Inter-Model Variation from AeroCom Phase II

The vertical profile of aerosol is important for its radiative effects, but weakly constrained by observations on the global scale, and highly variable among different models. To investigate the controlling factors in one particular model, we investigate the effects of individual processes in HadGEM3-UKCA and compare the resulting diversity of aerosol vertical profiles with the inter-model diversity from the AeroCom Phase II control experiment. In this way we show that (in this model at least) the vertical profile is controlled by a relatively small number of processes, although these vary among aerosol components and particle sizes. We also show that sufficiently coarse variations in these processes can produce a similar diversity to that among different models in terms of the global-mean profile and, to a lesser extent, the zonal-mean vertical position. However, there are features of certain models' profiles that cannot be reproduced, suggesting the influence of further structural differences between models. In HadGEM3-UKCA, convective transport is found to be very important in controlling the vertical profile of all aerosol components by mass. In-cloud scavenging is very important for all except mineral dust. Growth by condensation is important for sulfate and carbonaceous aerosol (along with aqueous oxidation for the former and ageing by soluble material for the latter). The vertical extent of biomass-burning emissions into the free troposphere is also important for the profile of carbonaceous aerosol. Boundary-layer mixing plays a dominant role for sea salt and mineral dust, which are emitted only from the surface. Dry deposition and below-cloud scavenging are important for the profile of mineral dust only. In this model, the microphysical processes of nucleation, condensation and coagulation dominate the vertical profile of the smallest particles by number (e.g. total CN >3 nm), while the profiles of larger particles (e.g. CN>100 nm) are controlled by the same processes as the component mass profiles, plus the size distribution of primary emissions. We also show that the processes that affect the AOD-normalised radiative forcing in the model are predominantly those that affect the vertical mass distribution, in particular convective transport, in-cloud scavenging, aqueous oxidation, ageing and the vertical extent of biomass-burning emissions.

dust↗

Northern Eurasian Heat Waves and Droughts

This article reviews our understanding of the characteristics and causes of northern Eurasian summertime heat waves and droughts. Additional insights into the nature of temperature and precipitation variability in Eurasia on monthly to decadal time scales and into the causes and predictability of the most extreme events are gained from the latest generation of reanalyses and from supplemental simulations with the NASA GEOS-5 AGCM. Key new results are: 1) the identification of the important role of summertime stationary Rossby waves in the development of the leading patterns of monthly Eurasian surface temperature and precipitation variability (including the development of extreme events such as the 2010 Russian heat wave), 2) an assessment of the mean temperature and precipitation changes that have occurred over northern Eurasia in the last three decades and their connections to decadal variability and global trends in SST, and 3) the quantification (via a case study) of the predictability of the most extreme simulated heat wave/drought events, with some focus on the role of soil moisture in the development and maintenance of such events. A literature survey indicates a general consensus that the future holds an enhanced probability of heat waves across northern Eurasia, while there is less agreement regarding future drought, reflecting a greater uncertainty in soil moisture and precipitation projections. Substantial uncertainties remain in our understanding of heat waves and drought, including the nature of the interactions between the short-term atmospheric variability associated with such extremes and the longer-term variability and trends associated with soil moisture feedbacks, SST anomalies, and an overall warming world.

SST↗

Probability Distribution Estimated From the Minimum, Maximum, and Most Likely Values: Applied to Turbine Inlet Temperature Uncertainty

Modern engineering design practices are tending more toward the treatment of design parameters as random variables as opposed to fixed, or deterministic, values. The probabilistic design approach attempts to account for the uncertainty in design parameters by representing them as a distribution of values rather than as a single value. The motivations for this effort include preventing excessive overdesign as well as assessing and assuring reliability, both of which are important for aerospace applications. However, the determination of the probability distribution is a fundamental problem in reliability analysis. A random variable is often defined by the parameters of the theoretical distribution function that gives the best fit to experimental data. In many cases the distribution must be assumed from very limited information or data. Often the types of information that are available or reasonably estimated are the minimum, maximum, and most likely values of the design parameter. For these situations the beta distribution model is very convenient because the parameters that define the distribution can be easily determined from these three pieces of information. Widely used in the field of operations research, the beta model is very flexible and is also useful for estimating the mean and standard deviation of a random variable given only the aforementioned three values. However, an assumption is required to determine the four parameters of the beta distribution from only these three pieces of information (some of the more common distributions, like the normal, lognormal, gamma, and Weibull distributions, have two or three parameters). The conventional method assumes that the standard deviation is a certain fraction of the range. The beta parameters are then determined by solving a set of equations simultaneously. A new method developed in-house at the NASA Glenn Research Center assumes a value for one of the beta shape parameters based on an analogy with the normal distribution (ref.1). This new approach allows for a very simple and direct algebraic solution without restricting the standard deviation. The beta parameters obtained by the new method are comparable to the conventional method (and identical when the distribution is symmetrical). However, the proposed method generally produces a less peaked distribution with a slightly larger standard deviation (up to 7 percent) than the conventional method in cases where the distribution is asymmetric or skewed. The beta distribution model has now been implemented into the Fast Probability Integration (FPI) module used in the NESSUS computer code for probabilistic analyses of structures (ref. 2).

Holland, Frederic A., Jr.↗

Photoelectric absorption cross sections with variable abundances

Polynomial fit coefficients have been obtained for the energy dependences of the photoelectric absorption cross sections of 17 astrophysically important elements. These results allow the calculation of X-ray absorption in the energy range 0.03-10 keV in material with noncosmic abundances.

Balucinska-Church, Monika↗

Soil Moisture Controls on Rainfall and Temperature Variability: A Modeler Searches Through Observational Data

The degree to which atmospheric processes respond to variations in soil moisture - a potentially important but largely untapped element of subseasonal to seasonal prediction - can be determined easily and directly for an atmospheric model but cannot be determined directly for nature through an analysis of observations. In atmospheric models) directions of causality can be artificially manipulated; we can avoid difficulties associated with the fact that atmospheric variations have a much larger impact on land state variations than vice-versa. In nature) on the other hand) the dominant direction of causality (the atmosphere forcing the ground) cannot be artificially "turned off") and the statistics associated with this dominant direction overwhelm those of the feedback signal. Observational data) however) do allow a number of indirect measures of landatmosphere feedback. This seminar reports on a series of joint analyses of observational and model data designed to illuminate the degree of land-atmosphere feedback present in the real world. The indirect measures do in fact suggest that feedback in nature, though small) is significant - enough to warrant the development of realistic land initialization strategies for subseasonal and seasonal forecasts.

Koster, Randal↗

A New Method to Retrieve the Diurnal Variability of Planetary Boundary Layer Height from Lidar Under Different Thermodynamic Stability Conditions

The planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) is an important parameter for understanding the accumulation of pollutants and the dynamics of the lower atmosphere. Lidar has been used for tracking the evolution of PBLH by using aerosol backscatter as a tracer, assuming aerosol is generally well-mixed in the PBL; however, the validity of this assumption actually varies with atmospheric stability. This is demonstrated here for stable boundary layers (SBL), neutral boundary layers (NBL), and convective boundary layers (CBL) using an 8-year dataset of micropulse lidar (MPL) and radiosonde (RS) measurements at the ARM Southern Great Plains, and MPL at the GSFC site. Due to weak thermal convection and complex aerosol stratification, traditional gradient and wavelet methods can have difficulty capturing the diurnal PBLH variations in the morning and forenoon, as well as under stable conditions generally. A new method is developed that combines lidar-measured aerosol backscatter with a stability dependent model of PBLH temporal variation (DTDS). The latter helps “recalibrate” the PBLH in the presence of a residual aerosol layer that does not change in harmony with PBL diurnal variation. The hybrid method offers significantly improved PBLH detection, with better correlation and smaller biases, under most thermodynamic conditions, especially for SBL and CBL. Relying on the physical process of PBL diurnal development, different schemes are developed for growing, maintenance, and decaying periods. Comprehensive evaluation of this new method shows much better tracking of diurnal PBLH variation and significantly smaller biases under various pollution levels.

Tianning Su↗

A Multi-scaled Analysis of Forest Structure using Individual-Based Modeling in a Costa Rican Rainforest

Consideration of scale is essential when examining structural relationships in forests. In this study, we present a parameterization of the FORMIND individual-based forest model for old growth Atlantic lowland rainforest in La Selva, Costa Rica. Results show that the simulated forest reproduces the structural complexity of Costa Rican rainforest within 2.3% of aboveground biomass values, based on comparisons with CARBONO inventory plot data. The Costa Rica FORMIND simulation was then used to investigate the relationship between canopy height and aboveground biomass (AGB), leaf area index (LAI) and gross primary productivity (GPP) at different spatial scales (20 × 20 m, 60 × 60 m, 100mx100m). The relationship between aboveground biomass and height is of particular importance toward the calibration of various remote sensing products including lidar and radar, whereas the LAI and GPP relationships are understudied in this context. We found that the relationship between all three variables and height varies considerably: the relationship is stronger at finer scales and weaker at coarser resolution. However, in all three comparisons, RMSE also decreased as scales coarsened, with the largest difference shown between 100 m and 10 m resolutions in relating AGB to Lorey's height (R^2 decreased by 0.3; RMSE decreased by 114.5 Mg/ha). This suggests that a trade-off between accuracy and precision exists, and further highlights the importance of spatial scale in determining the relatability of forest structure variables.

A.H.Armstrong↗

Assimilation of Satellite Data in Regional Air Quality Models

In terms of important uncertainty in regional-scale air-pollution models, probably no other aspect ranks any higher than the current ability to specify clouds and soil moisture on the regional scale. Because clouds in models are highly parameterized, the ability of models to predict the correct spatial and radiative characteristics is highly suspect and subject to large error. The poor representation of cloud fields from point measurements at National Weather Services stations and the almost total absence of surface moisture availability observations has made assimilation of these variables difficult to impossible. Yet, the correct inclusion of clouds and surface moisture are of first-order importance in regional-scale photochemistry.

SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION↗

Upper tropospheric water vapor: A field campaign of two Raman lidars, Airborne hygrometers, and Radiosondes

Water vapor in the atmosphere plays an important role in radiative transfer and the process of radiative balance so critical for understanding global change. It is the principal ingredient in cloud formation, one of the most difficult atmospheric processes to model, and the most variable component of the Earth-atmosphere albedo. And as a free molecule, it is the most active infrared absorber and emitter, thus, the most important greenhouse gas. The radiative impact of water vapor is important at all levels of the atmosphere. Even though moisture decreases by several orders-of-magnitude from the Earth's surface to the tropopause, recent research has shown that, from a radiative standpoint, a small percentage change in water vapor at any level is nearly equivalent. Therefore accurate and precise measurements of this important atmospheric constituent are needed at all levels to evaluate the full radiative impact. The need for improved measurements in the upper troposphere is particularly important because of the generally hostile (very dry and cold) conditions encountered. Because of the importance of water vapor to the understanding of radiative transfer, the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) program initiated a series of measurement campaigns at the Cloud And Radiation Testbed (CART) site in Oklahoma, especially focused on atmospheric water vapor. Three water vapor intensive observation period (water vapor IOP) campaigns were planned. Two of the water vapor IOP campaigns have been completed: the first IOP was held during the fall of 1996 with a focus on boundary layer water vapor measurements, and the second was conducted during the fall of 1997 with a focus on both boundary layer moisture e and moisture in the upper troposphere. This paper presents a review of the intercomparisons of water vapor measurements in the upper troposphere aquired during the second water vapor IOP. Data to be presented include water vapor measurements ements from: two Raman Lidars, the NASA Goddard Scanning Raman Lidar (SRL) and the CART Raman Lidar (CARL), a number of Vaisala radiosondes launched during the IOP campaign, and a dew point hygrometer flown on the University of North Dakota Cessna Citation Aircraft.

Melfi, S. Harvey↗

Psychophysiological Monitoring of Aerospace Crew State

As next-generation space exploration missions necessitate increasingly autonomous systems, there is a critical need to better detect and anticipate crewmember interactions with these systems. The success of present and future autonomous technology in exploration spaceflight is ultimately dependent upon safe and efficient interaction with the human operator. Optimal interaction is particularly important for surface missions during highly coordinated extravehicular activity (EVA), which consists of high physical and cognitive demands with limited ground support. Crew functional state may be affected by a number of variables including workload, stress, and motivation. Real-time assessments of crew state that do not require a crewmember’s time and attention to complete will be especially important to assess operational performance and behavioral health during flight. In response to the need for objective, passive assessment of crew state, the aim of this work is to develop an accurate and precise prediction model of human functional state for surface EVA using multi-modal psychophysiological sensing. The psychophysiological monitoring approach relies on extracting a set of features from physiological signals and using these features to classify an operator’s cognitive state. This work aims to compile a non-invasive sensor suite to collect physiological data in real-time. Training data during cognitive and more complex functional tasks will be used to develop a classifier to discriminate high and low cognitive workload crew states. The classifier will then be tested in an operationally relevant EVA simulation to predict cognitive workload over time. Once a crew state is determined, further research into specific countermeasures, such as decision support systems, would be necessary to optimize the automation and improve crew state and operational performance.

Wusk, Grace C.↗