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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 865 records · Page 48
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Statistically elucidated responses from low-signal contrast mechanisms in ultrafast electron microscopy

The emergence of ultrafast electron microscopy (UEM) has enabled the discovery of strongly correlated dynamic mechanisms, including electron–phonon coupling, structural phase transitions, thermal transport, and electromagnetic deflection. Most UEM systems operate stroboscopically, meaning that the technique is susceptible to artifacts, mistakes, and misinterpretation of the data due to extensive experimental effort. In contrast to the ultrafast designation, data acquisition is extraordinarily slow because the electron beam has significantly reduced signal compared to traditional transmission electron microscopy due to pulsing the electron beam. Consequently, the sample may drift, tilt, or undergo irreversible structural changes that are independent of the time-resolved dynamics throughout the experimental time frame. Furthermore, these datasets require significant user interpretation that can be problematic when proper controls are not implemented thoroughly. Here, we demonstrate a new algorithm designed to separate ultrafast structural dynamics from long-term artifacts using a LiNbO 3 sample experiencing electrically driven surface acoustic wave propagation. Additionally, we provide examples of the impact of user bias when analyzing the data and provide a methodology, which enables the extraction of time-resolved responses when the image signal is extraordinarily low. Overall, the goal of this publication is to provide methods that validate the experimental results and reduce researcher biases during UEM data interpretation.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

NMDC Field Notes Phone Application (NMDC Field Notes) v1.0

This software is for an application, designed for phones and/or tablets, to assist microbiome researchers collecting samples in the field to also collect metadata in a standardized and systematic way. The type of samples covered would be e.g. soil sample from a forest, sediment sample from a lake, or water sample in the ocean. The app allows users to collect sample information and metadata in an easy and intuitive way, and connects to the NMDC submission portal (https://data.microbiomedata.org/submission/home) a website from where users can review the samples they collected and add more information if necessary.

Kalita, Patrick↗
DOE OSTI2023

Influences of Cloud Microphysics on the Components of Solar Irradiance in the WRF-Solar Model

An accurate forecast of Global Horizontal solar Irradiance (GHI) and Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) in cloudy conditions remains a major challenge in the solar energy industry. This study focuses on the impact of cloud microphysics on GHI and its partition into DNI and Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance (DHI) using the Weather Research and Forecasting model specifically designed for solar radiation applications (WRF-Solar) and seven microphysical schemes. Three stratocumulus (Sc) and five shallow cumulus (Cu) cases are simulated and evaluated against measurements at the US Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility, Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. Results show that different microphysical schemes lead to spreads in simulated solar irradiance components up to 75% and 350% from their ensemble means in the Cu and Sc cases, respectively. The Cu cases have smaller microphysical sensitivity due to a limited cloud fraction and smaller domain-averaged cloud water mixing ratio compared to Sc cases. Cloud properties also influence the partition of GHI into DNI and DHI, and the model simulates better GHI than DNI and DHI due to a non-physical error compensation between DNI and DHI. The microphysical schemes that produce more accurate liquid water paths and effective radii of cloud droplets have a better overall performance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Graph-based design of irregular metamaterials

In the field of metamaterial research, random structures offer a novel and less conventional approach compared to traditional periodic designs. Designing random metamaterials is challenging when it comes to ensuring intercon- nectivity, which is essential for manufacturability. This study introduces an innovative framework for generating random metamaterials using graph al- gorithms, ensuring connectivity and adaptability across various base shapes, including cylinders, triangles, pyramids, and cubes. By employing graph algorithms, our framework enhances the intuitiveness and efficiency of de- sign representation and manipulation, streamlining the design process. The framework generates families of designs that exhibit a wide range of prop- erty magnitudes that can be adjusted intuitively by modifying the input parameters. The rapid design process allows many designs to be generated, offering the user a multitude of solutions around the target property range. The designs can be effectively implemented in various fields and subjected to diverse analytical studies, including static, dynamic, and eigenfrequency assessments. We illustrate computational results for two key properties (stiff- ness and acoustic impedance), showcasing the method’s effectiveness through examples ranging from rod-based to cube-based designs. Here, the framework not only advances metamaterial research but also creates new opportunities for innovation in fields requiring customized material properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Litter Production of Oak-Hickory Forest at Missouri Ozark (MOFLUX) Site: 2003-2022

This dataset contains measurements of litter production at the second-growth upland oak-hickory forest at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) site. The MOFLUX site is located in the University of Missouri Baskett Forest situated in the Ozark Border Region of central Missouri, USA, and is part of the AmeriFlux network (site ID: US-MOz). During 2003, 24 circular vegetation plots (each 0.08 hectares) were established in the MOFLUX forest. The plots were situated 50 meters apart on 5 linear transects radiating out from the flux tower base in southeast, south, southwest, west, and northwest directions—there were 5 plots per transect except for the northwest one, which had only 4 due to the presence of a small pond at the terminus (Fig. 1). Litter measurements were initiated in October 2003 and continue to the present. Data through 2022 are reported in this dataset. On each plot, two subplots were established for the collection of litter. Subplots were setup using a stratified random design to ensure the collectors were not immediately adjacent to one another. Litter collectors were usually emptied at monthly intervals, or less during the autumn leaf drop. Samples were dried to constant mass and then sorted before determining the dry mass of leaf, vegetative and woody litter. These litter data have been valuable in modeling efforts to examine the impacts of intensifying moisture extremes (i.e., moisture excess and deficit conditions) on soil carbon cycling. More recent data will be added periodically with no changes to previously released data or the format and structure of the data file. This dataset contains one data file in comma separate (.csv) format. Additional metadata are provided: one data dictionary and a file-level metadata file in comma separate (.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

MetaPoL: Immersive VR based Indoor Patterns of Life (PoL) and Anomalies Data Generation for Insider Threat Modeling in Nuclear Security

Insider threats are perhaps the most serious challenges that nuclear and radiological security systems face. Insiders pose such a great threat due to their access, authority, and knowledge, granting them opportunities to bypass dedicated nuclear and radiological security elements. For example, in one of the latest major insider threat incidents to nuclear security, the Doel-4 nuclear powerplant in Belgium suffered a shutdown, the threat of nuclear materials diversion, and long-term loss of tens of millions of dollars. Seven years of investigation concluded that it was an inside job and attempted sabotage. In this regard, there is an immediate need for R&D and technology integration in the domain of modeling indoor Patterns-of-Life (PoL) and anomaly detection. This can be achieved by using datasets of facility users’ mobility and activity, which can support the design of algorithms for insider threat modeling and detection. However, due to classification, privacy, sensitivity, and safety protocols, such datasets from real physical nuclear reactor facilities are not only hard to share, but also not always feasible to deploy and collect. Aiming to find an alternate solution, our proposed demonstration work - MetaPoL, is the first-ever (for the application space) immersive VR (virtual reality) environment of a real-world secure facility and allows users to move-and-stay through the designed indoor physical layout and also encounter NPCs (non-player characters) that emulate other facility users. In the MetaPoL an interactive user performs realistic spatio-temporal movement, dwelling and activities using a Meta Quest Pro VR headset, and that generates high-frequency (in time) high-resolution (in space) indoor spatial-temporal datasets that are valuable for PoL modeling and anomaly detection research specifically for insider threat modeling and detection mission. Such generated realistic, rich in context, and mission specific datasets can boost AI/Machine Learning based research for modeling and detecting insider threats in nuclear security and nonproliferation.

Gunaratne, Chathika↗
DOE OSTI2022

ROS-Ethereum: A Convenient Tool to Bridge ROS and Blockchain (Ethereum)

Robot Operating System (ROS) has received widespread utilization with the development of robotics, self-driving, etc., recently. Meanwhile, the other technology blockchain is frequently applied to various fields with its trustworthy characteristics and immutability in data storage. However, ROS has no ability to interact with the blockchain, which hinders research in related fields. Therefore, we wonder if we can develop a convenient tool to bridge ROS and blockchain. Inspired by this, we propose ROS-Ethereum. It bridges ROS and Ethereum, a widely used blockchain platform. ROS-Ethereum is based on the User Datagram Protocol (UDP) communication mechanism and the SM algorithm family along with Ethereum technology. Simply put, ROS-Ethereum allows users to invoke the contract when interacting with the blockchain, which makes this process easier and safer. We conduct experiments in real robots to verify the effectiveness of ROS-Ethereum and evaluate it from the following metrics: (1) the encryption efficiency and stability of the algorithm and (2) ROS-Ethereum transaction response time and packet loss rate.

Zhang, Shenhui↗
DOE OSTI2021

Autonomous Discovery in Science and Engineering

The Center for Advanced Mathematics for Energy Research Applications (CAMERA) is an integrated, cross-disciplinary center aimed at inventing, developing, and delivering the fundamental new mathematics required to capitalize on experimental investigations at scientific facilities. Jointly funded by the Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) and the Office of Basic Energy Sciences (BES) within the US Department of Energy’s Office of Science, CAMERA identifies areas in experimental science that can be aided by new mathematical insights, develops the needed algorithmic tools, and delivers them as user-friendly software to the experimental community.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Puerto Rico Demand Response Impact and Forecast Tool (PR-DRIFT) - Beta Version [Slides]

Due to high fossil fuel imports, high electricity rates, an unreliable electricity grid, and 100% renewable electricity goals, demand response can play a crucial role for the Puerto Rico electricity grid. The Puerto Rico Demand Response Impact and Forecast Tool (PR-DRIFT) is a spreadsheet-based tool in which users can estimate the potential impacts of demand response, energy efficiency, and VRE and storage adoption in Puerto Rico from 2021 through 2040. The tool includes projections for solar, wind, and battery adoption based on released RFPs and energy targets (including Act-17 2019) to generate a projected net load profile for each hour through 2040. Based on user inputs and default assumptions, the tool also projects load profile impacts of demand response and energy efficiency, and is specifically focused on highlighting projected demand response technical potential. This demand response technical potential can be used by local utilities, regulators, program administrators, or researchers to help design demand response programs for larger impact.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Science Plan for the Deployment of the Third ARM Mobile Facility to the Southeastern United States at the Bankhead National Forest, Alabama (AMF3 BNF)

In 2018, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) held a workshop for the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) (Mather and Voyles 2013) user facility to discuss critical climate challenges and locations where key ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) observational assets could impact Earth system modeling (ESM). As an outcome, the southeast United States (SE U.S.) was identified as a high-priority region to target climate-process studies that promote a deeper understanding of the climate system and bolster ARM interactions with the community to drive ESM advancement. The DOE ARM user facility is a globally recognized leader in deploying and operating strategically located observation sites around the world for studying the properties of aerosols and clouds and their interaction with radiation, precipitation, and the Earth’s surface. In partnering with the DOE Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program, ARM solicited a multi-agency Site Science Team approach to provide input and close interaction with ARM management towards a successful SE U.S. deployment of the ARM third Mobile Facility (AMF3) (Miller et al. 2016). These efforts included identifying key locations, science drivers and instruments, and measurement strategies to address the wider climate-process needs and ESM improvement. Community input served a vital role in establishing, refining, and informing the relevant drivers and decisions regarding this AMF3 deployment. The team has identified Northern Alabama (N. AL) as regionally representative to unlock the key opportunities that will improve our understanding and model representation of aerosol, cloud, and land-surface processes and their couplings in the SE U.S. A defining aspect of the AMF3 deployment is its commitment to long-term (anticipated five-year) observations to mitigate potential seasonal-to-annual variability that often limits appropriate attribution of phenomena to local or larger-scale processes. The proposed location may leverage nearby surface networks and multi-agency and partner assets to enrich this multi-year deployment. One motivation is to understand the role of spatiotemporal variability (thermodynamic, land-surface) across aspects of the climate system, with our AMF3 team anticipating future demands on characterizing the relationships between local-to-regional cloud development and surface processes across a diverse patchwork of natural, managed, and urban landscapes as found throughout the N. AL regions. The main site targets an intact, representative, forested region – the Bankhead National Forest (BNF) – underscoring further team commitment to regionally important land-atmosphere two-way interactive studies “from the canopy to the clouds”, with enhanced tower instrumentation augmenting traditional ARM capabilities adjacent to this site. Multiple supplemental sites will also be distributed across this region, prioritizing added needs for biodiversity. Anticipated high-priority cloud science themes will target N. AL as a regional SE U.S. hotbed for high-impact weather, convective cloud onset, and shallow-to-deep cloud transitioning. Anticipated aerosol drivers will focus on chemical processes that control the evolution of organic aerosol, the seasonality and spatial distribution of water vapor and particle-phase water, and its role on aerosol optical properties. Anticipated land-atmosphere drivers consider the two-way feedbacks between surface influence on aerosols, clouds, and precipitation properties and the associated radiative impacts on plant physiology and canopy-scale fluxes. Emphasis will include the study of the impact of surface processes on aerosols via precursor emission, and on clouds via moisture flux and thermal development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Motivation and Design of the OCPP Security Service

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is conducting in-depth research aimed at exploring how zero trust security principles can be effectively applied to electric vehicle charging infrastructure. This investigation seeks to enhance the resilience and reliability of these systems against cyber threats, ensuring secure and uninterrupted access to charging services for electric vehicle users and electric supply. Zero trust is a security concept centered on the belief that system operators should not automatically trust users or systems based on their location, whether inside or outside the organization, but instead must verify everything trying to connect to their systems before granting access. A key aspect of the project is to demonstrate and validate zero trust approaches targeted to electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure. It has been observed that both open-source and commercial solutions often overlook the specific protocols employed in managing EV charging stations and proceeded with a general, protocol-agnostic approach. While these strategies effectively block non-authorized routes to the charging infrastructure, they do not tackle the situations where attackers may exploit legitimate access channels, such as the inattentive operator model posited by the Idaho National Laboratory. To address this gap, this paper proposes and discusses a new security service targeted to the Open Charge Point Protocol (OCPP), which is the de facto protocol for the management of charging stations and serves a critical role in the broader adoption of electric vehicles. The design and architecture of the proposed OCPP security service are discussed in detail, outlining how it aims to safeguard charging station management system (CSMS) functions. The service is particularly important in scenarios where the charging station operator (CSO), responsible for the maintenance and operation of charging stations, and the charging network provider (CNP), which manages the charging network's accessibility and billing, are separate entities. This distinction is crucial because CSOs and CNPs often have different priorities, objectives, and operational responsibilities, which may not always align perfectly. For instance, a CSO might prioritize uptime and customer satisfaction, while a CNP might focus on maximizing revenue and network utilization. Such misalignment can create security vulnerabilities, as each entity might implement different policies and standards, potentially leaving gaps in the overall security posture.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Summary of DR4 and DR5 Data Products and Data Access

Two recent large data releases for the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT), called DR4 and DR5, are available for public access. These data include temperature and polarization maps that cover nearly half the sky at arcminute resolution in three frequency bands; lensing maps and component-separated maps covering ~ 2,100 deg 2 of sky; derived power spectra and cosmological likelihoods; a catalog of over 4,000 galaxy clusters; and supporting ancillary products including beam functions and masks. The data and products are described in a suite of ACT papers; here we provide a summary. In order to facilitate ease of access to these data we present a set of Jupyter IPython notebooks developed to introduce users to DR4, DR5, and the tools needed to analyze these data. The data products (excluding simulations) and the set of notebooks are publicly available on the NASA Legacy Archive for Microwave Background Data Analysis (LAMBDA); simulation products are available on the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Science Plan for the Deployment of the Third ARM Mobile Facility to the Southeastern United States at the Bankhead National Forest, Alabama (AMF3 BNF)

In 2018, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) held a workshop for the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) (Mather and Voyles 2013) user facility to discuss critical climate challenges and locations where key ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) observational assets could impact Earth system modeling (ESM). As an outcome, the southeast United States (SE U.S.) was identified as a high-priority region to target climate-process studies that promote a deeper understanding of the climate system and bolster ARM interactions with the community to drive ESM advancement. The DOE ARM user facility is a globally recognized leader in deploying and operating strategically located observation sites around the world for studying the properties of aerosols and clouds and their interaction with radiation, precipitation, and the Earth’s surface. In partnering with the DOE Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program, ARM solicited a multi-agency Site Science Team approach to provide input and close interaction with ARM management towards a successful SE U.S. deployment of the ARM third Mobile Facility (AMF3) (Miller et al. 2016). These efforts included identifying key locations, science drivers and instruments, and measurement strategies to address the wider climate-process needs and ESM improvement. Community input served a vital role in establishing, refining, and informing the relevant drivers and decisions regarding this AMF3 deployment. The team has identified Northern Alabama (N. AL) as regionally representative to unlock the key opportunities that will improve our understanding and model representation of aerosol, cloud, and land surface processes and their couplings in the SE U.S. A defining aspect of the AMF3 deployment is its commitment to long-term (anticipated five-year) observations to mitigate potential seasonal-to-annual variability that often limits appropriate attribution of phenomena to local or larger-scale processes. The proposed location may leverage nearby surface networks and multi-agency and partner assets to enrich this multi-year deployment. One motivation is to understand the role of spatiotemporal variability (thermodynamic, land-surface) across aspects of the climate system, with our AMF3 team anticipating future demands on characterizing the relationships between local-to-regional cloud development and surface processes across a diverse patchwork of natural, managed, and urban landscapes as found throughout the N. AL regions. The main site targets an intact, representative, forested region – the Bankhead National Forest (BNF) – underscoring further team commitment to regionally important land atmosphere two-way interactive studies “from the canopy to the clouds”, with enhanced tower instrumentation augmenting traditional ARM capabilities adjacent to this site. Multiple supplemental sites will also be distributed across this region, prioritizing added needs for biodiversity. Anticipated high-priority cloud science themes will target N. AL as a regional SE U.S. hotbed for high-impact weather, convective cloud onset, and shallow to-deep cloud transitioning. Anticipated aerosol drivers will focus on chemical processes that control the evolution of organic aerosol, the seasonality and spatial distribution of water vapor and particle-phase water, and its role on aerosol optical properties. Anticipated land atmosphere drivers consider the two-way feedbacks between surface influence on aerosols, clouds, and precipitation properties and the associated radiative impacts on plant physiology and canopy-scale fluxes. Emphasis will include the study of the impact of surface processes on aerosols via precursor emission, and on clouds via moisture flux and thermal development.

Doppler lidar, aerosols, convection↗
DOE OSTI2021

Community-Driven Methods for Open and Reproducible Software Tools for Analyzing Datasets from Atom Probe Microscopy

Atom probe tomography, and related methods, probe the three-dimensional architecture of a material. The software tools that microscopists use, and how these tools are connected into workflows, makes a substantial contribution to the accuracy and precision of such a material characterization experiment. Typically, we adapt methods from other communities like mathematics, data science, computational geometry, artificial intelligence, or scientific computing. We also realize that improving on research data management is a challenge when it comes to align with the FAIR data stewardship principles. Faced with this global challenge, we are convinced that collaborating is useful. Here, we report the results and challenges with an inter-laboratory call for developing test cases for several types of atom probe software tools. The results support why defining detailed recipes of software workflows and sharing these recipes is necessary and rewarding: Open source tools and (meta)data exchange can help to make our day-to-day data processing tasks become more efficient, the training of new users and knowledge transfer become easier, and assist us with automated quantification of uncertainties to gain access to substantiated results.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Roadrunner

SAND2026-17073O Roadrunner software provides a comprehensive platform for simulating the mechanical behavior of crystalline materials under various loading conditions, allowing users to investigate the effects of dislocation slip hardening and damage evolution. Developed as a fork of the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) software from Idaho National Laboratory, Roadrunner is optimized for high-performance computing and can simulate large-scale problems, enabling researchers to explore complex scenarios. Its applications include material design and optimization in aerospace and automotive industries, investigation of failure mechanisms in structural materials, and development of predictive models for crystalline materials under various loading conditions. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Lim, Hojun [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermo↗
DOE OSTI2020

P finder: genomic and metagenomic annotation of RNase P RNA gene (rnpB)

Abstract Background The rnpB gene encodes for an essential catalytic RNA (RNase P). Like other essential RNAs, RNase P’s sequence is highly variable. However, unlike other essential RNAs (i.e. tRNA, 16 S, 6 S,...) its structure is also variable with at least 5 distinct structure types observed in prokaryotes. This structural variability makes it labor intensive and challenging to create and maintain covariance models for the detection of RNase P RNA in genomic and metagenomic sequences. The lack of a facile and rapid annotation algorithm has led to the rnpB gene being the most grossly under annotated essential gene in completed prokaryotic genomes with only a 24% annotation rate. Here we describe the coupling of the largest RNase P RNA database with the local alignment scoring algorithm to create the most sensitive and rapid prokaryote rnpB gene identification and annotation algorithm to date. Results Of the 2772 completed microbial genomes downloaded from GenBank only 665 genomes had an annotated rnpB gene. We applied P Finder to these genomes and were able to identify 2733 or nearly 99% of the 2772 microbial genomes examined. From these results four new rnpB genes that encode the minimal T-type P RNase P RNAs were identified computationally for the first time. In addition, only the second C-type RNase P RNA was identified in Sphaerobacter thermophilus . Of special note, no RNase P RNAs were detected in several obligate endosymbionts of sap sucking insects suggesting a novel evolutionary adaptation. Conclusions The coupling of the largest RNase P RNA database and associated structure class identification with the P Finder algorithm is both sensitive and rapid, yielding high quality results to aid researchers annotating either genomic or metagenomic data. It is the only algorithm to date that can identify challenging RNAse P classes such as C-type and the minimal T-type RNase P RNAs. P Finder is written in C# and has a user-friendly GUI that can run on multiple 64-bit windows platforms (Windows Vista/7/8/10). P Finder is free available for download at https://github.com/JChristopherEllis/P-Finder as well as a small sample RNase P RNA file for testing.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020–2021

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org ). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1–4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

CROCUS Air Quality Data at Argonne National Laboratory Prairie Site

The AQT (Vaisala AQT530) instrument provides observations on meteorological conditions, including particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10), gas species concentrations (NO, NO2, O3, CO), and environment temperature and moisture. These measurements are critical for understanding air quality. These measurements are useful for understanding changes in aerosol properties, air quality research, and comparing to model experiments especially in urban environments. These measurements are collected at the Argonne Testbed for Multiscale Observational Science (ATMOS), a prairie field site at Argonne National Laboratory in Lemont, Illinois. Data is available in the netCDF data format, we encourage data users review documentation through Project Pythia to understand how to work with netCDF data https://foundations.projectpythia.org/core/data-formats/netcdf-cf.html. Each file contains one day's worth of data (24 hours, starting at 0000 UTC). The data is aggregated into daily frequency to make it easier to process multiple days, and compress the higher-resolution fields. File naming convention includes the project (CROCUS), location (atmos), data level (raw, a1), date (year, month, day), and hour (0000).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗