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At least 865 records · Page 48

Quantifying Firebrand Production and Transport Using the Acoustic Analysis of In-Fire Cameras

Firebrand travel and ignition of spot fires is a major concern in the Wildland-Urban Interface and in wildfire operations overall. Firebrands allow for the efficient breaching across fuel-free barriers such as roads, rivers and constructed fuel breaks. Existing observation-based knowledge on medium-distance firebrand travel is often based on single tree experiments that do not replicate the intensity and convective updraft of a continuous crown fire. Recent advances in acoustic analysis, specifically pattern detection, has enabled the quantification of the rate at which firebrands are observed in the audio recordings of in-fire cameras housed within fire-proof steel boxes that have been deployed on experimental fires. The audio pattern being detected is the sound created by a flying firebrand hitting the steel box of the camera. This technique allows for the number of firebrands per second to be quantified and can be related to the fire's location at that same time interval (using a detailed rate of spread reconstruction) in order to determine the firebrand travel distance. A proof of concept is given for an experimental crown fire that shows the viability of this technique. When related to the fire's location, key areas of medium-distance spotting are observed that correspond to regions of peak fire intensity. Trends on the number of firebrands landing per square metre as the fire approaches are readily quantified using low-cost instrumentation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Princeton Field-Reversed Configuration for Compact Nuclear Fusion Power Plants

The Princeton Field-Reversed Configuration (PFRC) nuclear fusion reactor concept is an innovative approach to fusion power generation prioritizing low neutron production and small size. Here, a combination of analytical modeling and numerical simulation shows that the novel heating approach generates an FRC with closed field lines. Simulation data from a single-particle Hamiltonian code predicts ms-scale plasma heating in reactor-scale conditions while PIC codes predict formation of warm FRC plasmas from initial mirror fields. The PFRC-1 and PFRC-2 experiments have heated electrons to energies well in excess of 100 eV and plasma durations to 300 ms, more than 10 4 times longer than the predicted tilt instability growth time. From these data, we have created a development plan and anticipated performance metrics for a fusion reactor based on the PFRC concept. The resulting 1–10 MW PFRC reactors would be suitable for diverse applications, from submarines to urban environments to space propulsion. PFRC is a steady-state, driven magnetic confinement device. Plasma, inside a cylindrical array of coils, is confined and heated by external RF antennae. PFRC would be ultra-low radiation due to both its fuel and small size. The choice of advanced fuels, deuterium and helium-3 (D– 3 He), may be enabled by the high-β FRC configuration. The small size of the reactor would enable rapid exhaust of the dangerous tritium ash. Low radiation would make the reactor safer to operate and, in combination with simple geometry and small size, dramatically lowers development and maintenance costs. This review paper gives an introduction to the physics of the PFRC and a summary of the PFRC-2 experiment results to date. It then discusses the future program plan and how PFRC reactors would be commercialized.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Well-to-wheels greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions from battery electric vehicles in China

Electric vehicles (EVs) play a crucial role in addressing climate change and urban air quality concerns. China has emerged as the global largest EV market with 1.2 million EVs sold in 2018. This study established a novel life cycle energy use and emission inventory collecting up-to-date data including the electricity generation mix, emission controls in the power and industrial sectors, and the energy use in the fuel transport to estimate the well-to-wheels (WTW) greenhouse gas (GHG), and air pollutant emissions for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and gasoline passenger vehicles in China. The results show that an average BEV has 35% lower WTW GHG emissions than an average gasoline car. BEVs reduce volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOX) emissions by 98% and 34%, respectively, but have comparable or slightly higher primary fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions. Compact and small-size vehicles generally have lower GHG and air pollutant emissions than mid- and large-size vehicles. Class A vehicles contribute the most in the absolute amount of GHG and air pollutant emissions and therefore have the biggest potential for emission reduction. Our results suggest that global policymakers should continue to promote the transition to clean power sources, emission control, and fuel economy regulations, which are critical to enhancing emission mitigation benefits of BEVs. We also suggest EV development strategies should be formulated targeting vehicle class with the biggest emission mitigation potentials.

Air pollutant emissions↗

The impact of development priorities on power system expansion planning in sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa faces unique barriers to electricity development due to the large proportion of the population that is un-electrified and the prevalence of rural populations. Typically, power system expansion planning models assume all potential consumers can be immediately electrified. This assumption is unrealistic in sub-Saharan Africa, where electrification will likely be a gradual process over a number of years. Furthermore, since a large proportion of the population in sub-Saharan Africa is located in rural regions, the prioritization of these regions may impact how the grid develops. In this research, we develop a multi-period optimization model for power generation and transmission system expansion planning in sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast to existing models, which assume full electrification, we consider a variety of electrification policies and analyze the impact of varying the electrification rate and policy on the cost and resources selected for power system expansion. We test our model on a case study of Rwanda. We find that varying the year in which full electrification is reached has a larger impact on cost and generation capacity than varying the electrification policy does, although, when urban and rural regions are considered equitably, more rooftop solar is built. Varying the electrification policies has a larger impact on transmission expansion than on generation expansion and this impact is amplified when starting from zero initial system capacity rather than the original Rwanda system. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis shows that tightening the bounds on CO 2eq emissions has a large impact on the generation portfolio and cost.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Thermo-hydro-mechanical analysis of subsurface ice-based thermal energy storage

Ice-based thermal energy storage systems are widely utilized for cooling and managing peak electrical demand globally, offering daily or weekly storage capabilities for both individual homes and larger office buildings. However, scaling these systems for district-level cooling or integrating them with renewable energy sources presents challenges, especially in accommodating larger volumes and addressing seasonal storage requirements in densely populated urban areas. This paper proposes a novel solution by evaluating subsurface ice-based thermal energy storage, in which the underground is subjected to seasonal freeze/thaw cycles. However, these cycles may influence ground behavior, affecting pore pressure and inducing ground movement. To systematically investigate these challenges, we enhance the TOUGH-FLAC simulator by integrating water/ice phase change capabilities and updating the effective stress–strain constitutive relation. Both modifications are validated against analytical solutions or experimental data. Through numerical simulations spanning a decade with ten seasonal freeze/thaw cycles, we evaluate the performance and long-term stability of a generic subsurface ice-based thermal energy storage system, considering factors such as ground permeability, freezing pipe spacing, freeze/thaw damage, and glycol solution temperature. The simulations indicate that ice formation induces pore pressure variations that drive seasonal surface heave and settlement, controlled by ground permeability, pipe spacing, and glycol solution temperature, along with tensile and localized shear deformation around freeze pipes. This highlights the need for accurate ground property characterization and geomechanical analysis for subsurface ice-based thermal energy storage.

Ground freezing↗

Efficacy of underground aggregate infiltration beds under a permeable pavement system

Urban areas often face significant flooding challenges due to impermeable surfaces that exacerbate stormwater runoff, making effective stormwater management essential. This study demonstrated that combining pervious concrete pavement systems with underground aggregate storage beds and rain gardens can significantly enhance water infiltration and drainage efficiency, providing valuable insights for designing low-impact development strategies in flood-prone regions.

Haselbach, Liv [Lamar Univ., Beaumont, TX (United ↗

Implementation of a realistic artificial data generator for crash data generation

In this paper, a framework is outlined to generate realistic artificial data (RAD) as a tool for comparing different models developed for safety analysis. The primary focus of transportation safety analysis is on identifying and quantifying the influence of factors contributing to traffic crash occurrence and its consequences. The current framework of comparing model structures using only observed data has limitations. With observed data, it is not possible to know how well the models mimic the true relationship between the dependent and independent variables. Further, real datasets do not allow researchers to evaluate the model performance for different levels of complexity of the dataset. RAD offers an innovative framework to address these limitations. Hence, we propose a RAD generation framework embedded with heterogeneous causal structures that generates crash data by considering crash occurrence as a trip level event impacted by trip level factors, demographics, roadway and vehicle attributes. Within our RAD generator we employ three specific modules: (a) disaggregate trip information generation, (b) crash data generation and (c) crash data aggregation. For disaggregate trip information generation, we employ a daily activity-travel realization for an urban region generated from an established activity-based model for the Chicago region. We use this data of more than 2 million daily trips to generate a subset of trips with crash data. For trips with crashes crash location, crash type, driver/vehicle characteristics, and crash severity. The daily RAD generation process is repeated for generating crash records at yearly or multi-year resolution. In conclusion, the crash databases generated can be employed to compare frequency models, severity models, crash type and various other dimensions by facility type - possibly establishing a universal benchmarking system for alternative model frameworks in safety literature.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Electrifying High-Efficiency Future Communities: Impact on Energy, Emissions, and Grid

To combat climate change and meet decarbonization goals, the building sector is improving energy efficiency and electrifying end uses to reduce carbon emissions from fossil fuels. All-electric buildings are becoming a trend among new constructions, introducing opportunities for decarbonization but also technical challenges and research gaps. For instance, further investigation is needed to understand how the adoption of energy efficiency measures (EEMs) and distributed energy resources (DERs) in all-electric communities would affect energy consumption, carbon emissions, and grid planning. This paper presents a case study of a mixed-use, all-electric community located in Denver, Colorado. We use URBANopt TM , a physics-based urban energy modeling platform to model the community and then evaluate the impact of EEMs and DERs (i.e., photovoltaics [PV], electric vehicles [EVs], and batteries) on the community's energy usage, carbon emissions, and peak demand. The results show that adding EEMs and PV led to both energy consumption and carbon emissions reductions across all building types. However, we saw fairly limited impact of EEMs and PV on buildings' peak demand in our case. Additionally, due to overnight EV charging activities and higher grid carbon intensity at night, the carbon emissions in multifamily buildings have a noticeable increase compared to scenarios without vehicles. Finally, the addition of batteries helped reduce peak demand by 11%-29%. The modeling workflow and evaluation methods can be applied to similar communities to evaluate their performance and the effect of integrating EEMs and DERs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Active and passive cooling approaches for a Southern California residential community

This study assesses cooling strategies in a low-income community in Southern California that lacks air conditioning and struggles with heat and air pollution. We used an urban building energy model and an electric distribution system model to evaluate active and passive cooling measures. The most effective space cooling measures were high-performance air-source heat pumps, cool coatings, window films, and harnessing the space cooling effect from heat pump water heaters. The results show that combining heat pump water heaters with window films and cool coatings reduces heat index hazard hours within buildings by 95 % to 99 % but increases total energy costs (equipment costs plus changes in utility bills) by 20 % to 60 % where the higher end includes building electrical upgrades. These measures also led to increased space heater use during colder months to avoid overcooling. Replacing conventional heaters with air source heat pumps eliminated unsafe indoor temperatures and reduced total energy use, but increased cost by 125 % to 150 %. In total, using heat pumps for space and water heating could reduce primary energy use by up to 57 %. The higher cost of active and passive cooling measures can be mitigated by existing and emerging incentive programs, especially those that support heat pumps. Electric distribution upgrades to support community electrification are estimated to increase utility costs by $\$$25 to $\$$40 per ratepayer per year. The results underscore the potential and challenges of adapting building infrastructure in communities at risk from climate and environmental stressors.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Land cover change-induced decline in terrestrial gross primary production over the conterminous United States from 2001 to 2016

As one of the most dynamic aspects of global environmental change, land cover change (LCC) has a profound impact on terrestrial carbon sequestration. However, LCC-induced carbon fluxes are still the most uncertain terms in global and regional carbon budgets. Ecosystem gross primary production (GPP) is the total carbon uptake by vegetation through photosynthesis, serving as a major control on ecosystem function and land carbon balance during and after the modification of the land surface. However, accurately capturing LCC-induced GPP changes requires both high-quality land cover data and controlling for variation driven by other environmental factors such as climate. In this study, we comprehensively examined the effects of LCC on annual GPP trends over the conterminous United States (CONUS) from 2001 to 2016 using the USGS National Land Cover Database, a remote sensing-driven ecosystem model, and the Google Earth Engine cloud computing platform. We designed a series of model experiments to identify LCC effects on GPP by controlling climate effects. During the study period, LCC exerted a strong negative effect on total GPP across the CONUS ([-2.2, -1.8] Tg C yr -2 ), while climate had smaller positive effects ([0.17, 0. 92] Tg C yr -2 ). The LCC-induced reduction of GPP was mainly caused by net forest loss ([-1.98, -1.39] Tg C yr -2 ) and urban expansion ([-2.03, -1.92] Tg C yr -2 ), but was partially offset by increases in crop area ([+0.66, +0.79] Tg C yr -2 ). Ensemble simulations from TRENDY did not capture the strong negative LCC influences on GPP, likely due to limitations of the adopted land use/cover data. Overall, our study provides a novel perspective on LCC-induced GPP changes, which could help to improve our understanding of ecosystem function changes and constrain the estimation of land carbon balance in the context of anthropogenic activity and climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Network of networks: Time series clustering of AmeriFlux sites

Environmental observation networks, such as AmeriFlux, are foundational for monitoring ecosystem response to climate change, management practices, and natural disturbances; however, their effectiveness depends on their representativeness for the regions or continents. We proposed an empirical, time series approach to quantify the similarity of ecosystem fluxes across AmeriFlux sites. We extracted the diel and seasonal characteristics (i.e., amplitudes, phases) from carbon dioxide, water vapor, energy, and momentum fluxes, which reflect the effects of climate, plant phenology, and ecophysiology on the observations, and explored the potential aggregations of AmeriFlux sites through hierarchical clustering. While net radiation and temperature showed latitudinal clustering as expected, flux variables revealed a more uneven clustering with many small (number of sites < 5), unique groups and a few large (> 100) to intermediate (15–70) groups, highlighting the significant ecological regulations of ecosystem fluxes. Many identified unique groups were from under-sampled ecoregions and biome types of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), with distinct flux dynamics compared to the rest of the network. At the finer spatial scale, local topography, disturbance, management, edaphic, and hydrological regimes further enlarge the difference in flux dynamics within the groups. Nonetheless, our clustering approach is a data-driven method to interpret the AmeriFlux network, informing future cross-site syntheses, upscaling, and model-data benchmarking research. Finally, we highlighted the unique and underrepresented sites in the AmeriFlux network, which were found mainly in Hawaii and Latin America, mountains, and at under-sampled IGBP types (e.g., urban, open water), motivating the incorporation of new/unregistered sites from these groups.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Layered CAD/CSG geometry for spatially complex radiation transport scenarios

Many spatially complex fission, fusion, and national security Monte Carlo (MC) radiation transport scenarios involve combining computer-aided design (CAD) models with constructive solid geometry (CSG) models. A layered geometry method has been implemented in the Shift MC code to address this need. With layered geometry, multiple CAD and/or CSG models can be clipped, translated, rotated, and placed in overlapping layers to form transport-ready geometries. Here, the utility of this method is demonstrated with two problems: (1) a fixed-source simulation with a layered geometry consisting of a LiDAR-generated CAD model of the Combined Arms Collective Training Facility urban environment overlaid with CSG models of a mock hotel and a detector apparatus, and (2) a k-eigenvalue calculation using a layered geometry model of the Transformational Challenge Reactor consisting of CAD fuel elements placed in a CSG core. Tallied particle flux distributions match expectations, but tracking robustness must be improved prior to general-purpose use.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Self-cleaning and de-pollution efficacies of photocatalytic architectural membranes

Photocatalytic self-cleaning “cool” roofs and walls can maintain high albedos, saving building cooling energy, reducing peak power demand, and mitigating the urban heat island effect. Other environmental benefits result from their de-polluting properties. Specimens from two different photocatalytic architectural membranes and a non-photocatalytic control were exposed alongside vertically, facing west, for two years at three California sites, and retrieved quarterly for testing. Photocatalytic materials showed excellent self-cleaning performance, retaining albedos of 0.74 – 0.75. By contrast, the control material exhibited an albedo loss of up to 0.10, with appreciable soiling observed by scanning electron microscopy. De-pollution capacity was assessed by quantifying NO removal and NOx deposition rates at 60 °C. Furthermore, efficacy varied with exposure location, weather conditions, and the nature of the photocatalytic material. Seasonal effects were observed, with partial inhibition during the dry season and reactivation during the rainy season.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Solar Energy Integration in Buildings

Energy consumption in buildings has been steadily increasing and contributing up to 40% of the total energy use in developed countries [1]. In developing countries, the share of building energy consumption is smaller, but given population growth, urbanization, and rising demands for building services and comfort, the sharp rise of building energy use is probably inevitable. Thus, reducing building energy consumption plays a very important role in controlling global energy demand and mitigating climate change, so as to develop a sustainable environment. Solar energy, as the most important source of renewable energy, features the characteristics of clean, renewable, inexhaustible, and widely distributed energy, relative to other kinds of energy sources. Solar energy systems can now generate electricity at a cost equal to or lower than local grid-supplied electricity [2]. More importantly, solar energy can provide almost all forms of energy needed by buildings, through active or passive methods.

buildings↗

Optimal electric-distribution-grid planning considering the demand-side flexibility of thermal building systems for a test case in Singapore

The planning of district-scale electric grids, i.e., distribution grids, has traditionally relied on finding the most cost-effective design such that they are able to supply the peak loads in a district. With the advent of electric demand side flexibility (DSF), there is the opportunity to reshape peak loads such that the investment cost of the electric grid decreases in exchange for a minor increase in the operation cost. This paper formulates an optimal planning approach for the electric grid at the district scale, which incorporates the DSF from thermal building systems, e.g., heating ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems. The problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) and aims at minimizing the investment cost for the grid along with the operation cost of the flexible loads. This is subjected to the fixed electricity demand and thermal comfort constraints of building occupants. To this end, linear models for the thermal comfort in the buildings and the power flow in electric grid are considered. The approach is tested on a district planning test case based in Singapore, where the results show up to 30.9 % reductions in investment cost and up to 3.7 % reduction in total annualized cost. Urban planning authorities, developers and utility companies can all benefit from the presented approach to make optimized investment decisions. For building operators, the results point to the need of adopting their control systems for DSF.

Troitzsch, Sebastian↗

Modeling occupancy-driven building loads for large and diversified building stocks through the use of parametric schedules

Building energy modeling provides a fundamental tool to assess the potential for energy efficiency to contribute to reducing world energy consumption and global emissions. Occupancy-related operations are a key source of uncertainty for building energy analysis, particularly for aggregated building stocks. At a district or city level, it is critical to estimate aggregated power load profiles for sizing power grid infrastructure, power plant capacity allocation, and energy efficiency measures. The stochastic nature of behavior-related operations complicates the creation of models that accurately capture building load profiles for entire building stocks. This research introduces a new methodology called parametric schedules to model occupancy-driven schedules for large and diverse building stocks. In contrast to computationally expensive methodologies proposed in the literature, our work does not use a recursive time-consuming step. Occupancy is estimated by the extrapolation of operation times directly from metered electric consumption data; occupancy-related schedules are stochastically assigned to each building model, guaranteeing diversity of operation times in the stock. Our procedure has been tested on a large, diversified data-set of 25,000 commercial buildings in Los Angeles, California. It proved to be able to adequately represent the stochastic schedules diversity of the stock and to refine the stock calibration process by 1%. This innovative approach represents a useful asset for utility companies, grid operators, urban planners, and balancing authorities, seeking to improve building stock modeling and better estimate the impact of energy conservation measures. – This work is part of a larger stock modeling tool called ComStock, which is under development by NREL.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Optimizing dynamic wireless charging for electric buses: A data-driven approach to infrastructure planning

The network configuration significantly impacts the performance of dynamic wireless charging (DWC) technology for electric buses. Here, this study presents a novel approach to planning charging infrastructure for public transit using data-driven nonconvex mixed-integer optimization. Integrating DWC and charging station technologies reveals a trade-off between enroute and stationary charging times. Our framework optimizes bus frequency settings and transmitter coil arrangements to minimize operational and infrastructure costs. A case study in Chattanooga, Tennessee, demonstrates the method's effectiveness in mitigating range anxiety and reducing charging expenses. This research implies that integrating DWC technology into public transit systems can enhance the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of electric bus operations, promoting sustainable urban mobility.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Establishing nationwide power system vulnerability index across US counties using interpretable machine learning

Power outages have become increasingly frequent, intense, and prolonged in the US due to climate change, aging electrical grids, and rising energy demand. However, largely due to the absence of granular spatiotemporal outage data, we lack data-driven evidence and analytics-based metrics to quantify power system vulnerability. This limitation has hindered the ability to effectively evaluate and address vulnerability to power outages in US communities. Here, in this work, we collected ∼179 million power outage records at 15-min intervals across 3022 US contiguous counties (96.15 % of the area) from 2014 to 2023. We developed a power system vulnerability assessment framework based on three dimensions (intensity, frequency, and duration) and applied interpretable machine learning models (XGBoost and SHAP) to compute Power System Vulnerability Index (PSVI) at the county level. Our analysis reveals a consistent increase in power system vulnerability across the US counties over the past decade. We identified 318 counties across 45 states as hotspots for high power system vulnerability, particularly in the West Coast (California and Washington), the East Coast (Florida and the Northeast area), the Great Lakes megalopolis (Chicago-Detroit metropolitan areas), and the Gulf of Mexico (Texas). Our heterogeneity analysis indicates that urban counties and those located along regional transmission boundaries tend to exhibit significantly higher vulnerability. Our results highlight the significance of the proposed PSVI for evaluating the vulnerability of communities to power outages. The findings underscore the widespread and pervasive impact of power outages across the country and offer crucial insights to support infrastructure operators, policymakers, and emergency managers in formulating policies and programs aimed at enhancing the resilience of the US power infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗