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At least 865 records · Page 48

A probabilistic fracture mechanics approach for structural reliability assessment of space flight systems

A probabilistic fracture mechanics approach for predicting the failure life distribution due to subcritical crack growth is presented. A state-of-the-art crack propagation method is used in a Monte Carlo simulation to generate a distribution of failure lives. The crack growth failure model expresses failure life as a function of stochastic parameters including environment, loads, material properties, geometry, and model specification errors. A stochastic crack growth rate model that considers the uncertainties due to scatter in the data and mode misspecification is proposed. The rationale for choosing a particular type of probability distribution for each stochastic input parameter and for specifying the distribution parameters is presented. The approach is demonstrated through a probabilistic crack growth failure analysis of a welded tube in the Space Shuttle Main Engine. A discussion of the results from this application of the methodology is given.

Sutharshana, S.↗

Linear instabilities in the hot-ion regime in a high-field spherical tokamak

Abstract The present operating high-field compact spherical tokamak ST40 is an important step toward an ST-based fusion reactor (Gryaznevich and Asunta 2017 Fusion Eng. Des. 123 177; McNamara 2023 Nucl. Fusion 63 054002). Temperature and density profiles and their uncertainties in recent hot ion ST40 plasmas with central ion temperatures exceeding 8.6 keV, have been inferred using an integrated analysis of several diagnostics including line-of-sight integration and volume average measurements, as well as limited profile information from a charge-exchange-recombination spectrometer. A linear gyrokinetic stability analysis has been carried out to identify the most unstable micro-instabilities in these hot ion plasmas. In one of these plasmas, it is found that linear growth rates of both ion- and electron-scale ( k θ ρ s ⩾ 0.2 where k θ is the poloidal wavenumber and ρ s is the ion gyro-radius with sound speed) modes decrease from the edge toward the core of the plasma (i.e. from ρ = 0.8 to 0.3 where ρ is the square root of the normalized magnetic flux), while the change of linear growth rates at k θ ρ s < 0.2 is non-monotonic. In particular, at ρ = 0.3 no unstable mode was found at k θ ρ s > 5 , and about an order of magnitude reduction in the maximum linear growth rate in the ion-scale wavenumber range of 0.2 ⩽ k θ ρ s < 1 is seen at ρ = 0.3 compared with the ρ = 0.8 location. It is found through parametric scans that while the ion temperature gradient (ITG) mode/trapped electron mode (TEM) and kinetic ballooning mode (KBM)/kinetic shear Alfvén (KSA) mode are more important in the plasma core, ubiquitous mode (UM) is found to be the important ion-scale instability at ρ ⩾ 0.6 . At ρ = 0.8, two instabilities are found at the electron scale, with one being the typical electrostatic electron temperature gradient (ETG) mode at ρ e scale and beyond and the other being an unidentified low-real-frequency instability (at the intermediate scale between electron and ion gyroradii) which can propagate in the ion direction and is driven by ETG. The existence of UM at the ion scale and the low-real-frequency instability and ETG mode at the electron scale at ρ = 0.8 is supported by an extensive linear gyrokinetic stability analysis of another ST40 hot ion plasma in a wider parametric range, taking into account the uncertainties in the experimental profiles.

ubiquitous mode↗

Measurement of Rayleigh Scattering in Liquid Argon at Vacuum Ultraviolet Wavelengths

Liquid argon based experiments are limited in scintillation light analysis capabilities due to inconsistent measured values of fundamental constants essential for reconstructing scintillation events. This experiment measures the Rayleigh scattering length of vacuum ultraviolet light propagating in liquid argon to support liquid argon experiments by expanding the scope of scintillation signal analysis. Preliminary results are presented for the Rayleigh scattering length in arange of vacuum ultraviolet wavelengths, including the liquid argon scintillation peak wavelength. Currently, further data collection and analysis is required to reduce measurement uncertainty as well as quantify and correct for other effects such as the photon detector temperature dependence. Results will contribute to the development of new photon detector system analysis methods for liquid argon experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Assessing reservoir performance for geologic carbon sequestration in offshore saline reservoirs

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a technological strategy to reduce CO 2 emissions from hydrocarbon-based energy production and non-energy industrial emitters, like fertilizer and cement production. To expand the geographic opportunities for CCS, offshore geologic settings are increasingly considered for saline CO 2 storage, particularly where legacy oil and gas infrastructure may be repurposed for CO 2 transport and injection. In this context, the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), United States (U.S.), may offer tremendous opportunity for CCS because the surrounding states are among the largest CO 2 producers in the U.S. and there has been extensive oil and gas development over the last half century. Nevertheless, there remains significant uncertainty in how GoM reservoir/seal systems will respond to industrial-scale CO 2 injections, particularly in the context of meso-scale (1–10s of meters) permeability variations that are difficult to identify prior to injection. Such permeability variations can have significant impacts on CO 2 migration and fluid pressure propagation, both of which govern the overall effectiveness of the CCS project. This research uses ensemble simulation methods to quantify the influence of spatially variable and a priori unknown permeability fields on CO 2 plume development and fluid pressure propagation when CO 2 is injected at 1 MMt per year for ten years. Results show a number of characteristic patterns that reveal the substantial influence of both near- and far-field permeability on reservoir performance. By focusing on basin characteristics that are common among offshore basins worldwide, results from this study suggest that offshore CCS may be a feasible carbon management strategy in regions where offshore basins are proximal to industrial CO 2 sources.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Satellite Orbital Drag During Magnetic Storms

We investigate satellite orbital drag effects at lowEarth orbit associated with thermosphere heating during magnetic storms caused by coronal mass ejections. CHAllenge Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) neutral density data are used to compute orbital drag. Stormtoquiet density comparisons are performed with background densities obtained by the JacchiaBowman 2008 (JB2008) empirical model. Our storms are grouped in different categories regarding their intensities as indicated by minimum values of the SYMH index. We then perform superposed epoch analyses with storm main phase onset as zero epoch time. In general, we find that orbital drag effects are larger for CHAMP (lower altitudes) in comparison to GRACE (higher altitudes). Results show that storm time drag effects manifest first at high latitudes, but for extreme storms, particularly observed by GRACE, stronger orbital drag effects occur during early main phase at low/equatorial latitudes, probably due to heating propagation from high latitudes. We find that storm time orbital decay along the satellites' path generally increases with storm intensity, being stronger and faster for the most extreme events. For these events, orbital drag effects decrease faster probably due to elevated cooling effects caused by nitric oxide, which introduce modeled density uncertainties during storm recovery phase. Errors associated with total orbit decay introduced by JB2008 are generally the largest for the strongest storms and increase during storm times, particular during recovery phases. We discuss the implication of these uncertainties for the prediction of collision between space objects at lowEarth orbit during magnetic storms.

Oliveira, D. M.↗

Influence of Source Propagation Direction and Shear Flow Profile in Impedance Eduction of Acoustic Liners

The acoustic impedance of liners is a key parameter for their design, and depends on the flow conditions, i.e., the sound pressure level and the presence of a grazing flow. The surface impedance of a locally reacting liner is defined as a local intrinsic property relating the acoustic pressure to the normal acoustic particle velocity at the liner surface. Impedance eduction techniques are now widely used to retrieve the impedance of liners in aeroacoustic facilities in the presence of a shear grazing flow. While surface impedance is intrinsic by definition, the educed impedance has recently been shown to depend on the direction of the incident waves relative to the mean flow. Different studies have investigated this issue by considering different acoustic propagation models used in the education process in the hope of matching the educed values. The purpose of the present work is to continue the previous investigations by evaluating the influence of the shear flow profile on the educed impedance, while considering a Bayesian inference process in order to evaluate the uncertainty on the educed values. The identified uncertainties were not able to totally account for the observed discrepancies between educed impedances.

Roncen, R.↗

Cross-beam energy transfer saturation: ion heating and pump depletion

Cross-beam energy transfer (CBET) was measured in two regimes where the energy transfer saturation mechanism was determined by the plasma and laser beam conditions. Here, linear kinetic CBET theory agrees well with the measured energy transfer in all experimental configurations and at all probe beam intensities when accounting for pump depletion and the plasma conditions measured using Thomson-scattering. Simultaneous CBET and Thomson-scattering measurements enabled uncertainties in the plasma conditions to be isolated from CBET theory, which allowed the saturation mechanisms to be identified. In the perpendicular-beam configuration the saturation mode was through ion heating, which resulted from ion trapping in the driven waves and subsequent ion-ion collisional heating. In the co-propagating beam configuration there was minimal ion heating and the saturation mode was through pump depletion.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

An error covariance model for sea surface topography and velocity derived from TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry

In order to facilitate the use of satellite-derived sea surface topography and velocity oceanographic models, methodology is presented for deriving the total error covariance and its geographic distribution from TOPEX/POSEIDON measurements. The model is formulated using a parametric model fit to the altimeter range observations. The topography and velocity modeled with spherical harmonic expansions whose coefficients are found through optimal adjustment to the altimeter range residuals using Bayesian statistics. All other parameters, including the orbit, geoid, surface models, and range corrections are provided as unadjusted parameters. The maximum likelihood estimates and errors are derived from the probability density function of the altimeter range residuals conditioned with a priori information. Estimates of model errors for the unadjusted parameters are obtained from the TOPEX/POSEIDON postlaunch verification results and the error covariances for the orbit and the geoid, except for the ocean tides. The error in the ocean tides is modeled, first, as the difference between two global tide models and, second, as the correction to the present tide model, the correction derived from the TOPEX/POSEIDON data. A formal error covariance propagation scheme is used to derive the total error. Our global total error estimate for the TOPEX/POSEIDON topography relative to the geoid for one 10-day period is found tio be 11 cm RMS. When the error in the geoid is removed, thereby providing an estimate of the time dependent error, the uncertainty in the topography is 3.5 cm root mean square (RMS). This level of accuracy is consistent with direct comparisons of TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter heights with tide gauge measurements at 28 stations. In addition, the error correlation length scales are derived globally in both east-west and north-south directions, which should prove useful for data assimilation. The largest error correlation length scales are found in the tropics. Errors in the velocity field are smallest in midlatitude regions. For both variables the largest errors caused by uncertainty in the geoid. More accurate representations of the geoid await a dedicated geopotential satellite mission. Substantial improvements in the accuracy of ocean tide models are expected in the very near future from research with TOPEX/POSEIDON data.

Tsaoussi, Lucia S.↗

Shock-induced bubble jets: a dual perspective of bubble collapse and interfacial instability theory

Interactions between shock waves and gas bubbles in a liquid can lead to bubble collapse and high-speed liquid jet formation, relevant to biomedical applications such as shock wave lithotripsy and targeted drug delivery. This study reveals a complex interplay between acceleration-induced instabilities that drive jet formation and radial accelerations causing overall bubble collapse under shock wave pressure. Using high-speed synchrotron X-ray phase contrast imaging, the dynamics of micrometre-sized air bubbles interacting with laser-induced underwater shock waves are visualised. These images offer full optical access to phase discontinuities along the X-ray path, including jet formation, its propagation inside the bubble, and penetration through the distal side. Jet formation from laser-induced shock waves is suggested to be an acceleration-driven process. A model predicting jet speed based on the perturbation growth rate of a single-mode Richtmyer–Meshkov instability shows good agreement with experimental data, despite uncertainties in the jet-driving mechanisms. The jet initially follows a linear growth phase, transitioning into a nonlinear regime as it evolves. To capture this transition, a heuristic model bridging the linear and nonlinear growth phases is introduced, also approximating jet shape as a single-mode instability, again matching experimental observations. Upon piercing the distal bubble surface, jets can entrain gas and form a toroidal secondary bubble. Linear scaling laws are identified for the pinch-off time and volume of the ejected bubble relative to the jet’s Weber number, characterising the balance of inertia and surface tension. At low speeds, jets destabilise due to capillary effects, resulting in ligament pinch-off.

Drops and Bubbles: Bubble dynamics↗

Gaussian processes meet NeuralODEs: a Bayesian framework for learning the dynamics of partially observed systems from scarce and noisy data

We present a machine learning framework (GP-NODE) for Bayesian model discovery from partial, noisy and irregular observations of nonlinear dynamical systems. The proposed method takes advantage of differentiable programming to propagate gradient information through ordinary differential equation solvers and perform Bayesian inference with respect to unknown model parameters using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling and Gaussian Process priors over the observed system states. This allows us to exploit temporal correlations in the observed data, and efficiently infer posterior distributions over plausible models with quantified uncertainty. The use of the Finnish Horseshoe as a sparsity-promoting prior for free model parameters also enables the discovery of parsimonious representations for the latent dynamics. A series of numerical studies is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed GP-NODE method including predator–prey systems, systems biology and a 50-dimensional human motion dynamical system. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Data-driven prediction in dynamical systems’.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

The uses and limitations of HF standard broadcasts for time and frequency comparison

The most practical methods of using high-frequency (HF) broadcasts for frequency and time comparison are reviewed. Although standard broadcast and receiving equipment has improved vastly throughout the past fifty years, the HF propagation medium is no more stable today than it was a half century ago. Doppler shift resulting from changes in the effective height of the ionosphere typically limits the usable accuracy of received high frequencies to a few parts in 10 to the 7th power. At locations beyond groundwave range of the transmitter, uncertainties in path delay generally restrict the usable accuracy of HF time signals to the order of a millisecond. Signal-averaging techniques are sometimes employed to extract frequency or time signals from a noisy background.

Stanley, J. T.↗

Shuttle Debris Impact Tool Assessment Using the Modern Design of Experiments

Computational tools have been developed to estimate thermal and mechanical reentry loads experienced by the Space Shuttle Orbiter as the result of cavities in the Thermal Protection System (TPS). Such cavities can be caused by impact from ice or insulating foam debris shed from the External Tank (ET) on liftoff. The reentry loads depend on cavity geometry and certain Shuttle state variables, among other factors. Certain simplifying assumptions have been made in the tool development about the cavity geometry variables. For example, the cavities are all modeled as shoeboxes , with rectangular cross-sections and planar walls. So an actual cavity is typically approximated with an idealized cavity described in terms of its length, width, and depth, as well as its entry angle, exit angle, and side angles (assumed to be the same for both sides). As part of a comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty in reentry loads estimated by the debris impact assessment tools, an effort has been initiated to quantify the component of the uncertainty that is due to imperfect geometry specifications for the debris impact cavities. The approach is to compute predicted loads for a set of geometry factor combinations sufficient to develop polynomial approximations to the complex, nonparametric underlying computational models. Such polynomial models are continuous and feature estimable, continuous derivatives, conditions that facilitate the propagation of independent variable errors. As an additional benefit, once the polynomial models have been developed, they require fewer computational resources to execute than the underlying finite element and computational fluid dynamics codes, and can generate reentry loads estimates in significantly less time. This provides a practical screening capability, in which a large number of debris impact cavities can be quickly classified either as harmless, or subject to additional analysis with the more comprehensive underlying computational tools. The polynomial models also provide useful insights into the sensitivity of reentry loads to various cavity geometry variables, and reveal complex interactions among those variables that indicate how the sensitivity of one variable depends on the level of one or more other variables. For example, the effect of cavity length on certain reentry loads depends on the depth of the cavity. Such interactions are clearly displayed in the polynomial response models.

DeLoach, R.↗

Origin and propagation of galactic cosmic rays

The study of systematic trends in elemental abundances is important for unfolding the nuclear and/or atomic effects that should govern the shaping of source abundances and in constraining the parameters of cosmic ray acceleration models. In principle, much can be learned about the large-scale distributions of cosmic rays in the galaxy from all-sky gamma ray surveys such as COS-B and SAS-2. Because of the uncertainties in the matter distribution which come from the inability to measure the abundance of molecular hydrogen, the results are somewhat controversial. The leaky-box model accounts for a surprising amount of the data on heavy nuclei. However, a growing body of data indicates that the simple picture may have to be abandoned in favor of more complex models which contain additional parameters. Future experiments on the Spacelab and space station will hopefully be made of the spectra of individual nuclei at high energy. Antiprotons must be studied in the background free environment above the atmosphere with much higher reliability and presion to obtain spectral information.

Cesarsky, Catherine J.↗

A study of galactic cosmic ray propagation models based on the isotopic composition of the elements lithium, beryllium and boron

A good test for a cosmic ray propagation model is its ability to predict the abundances of the light secondary nuclei lithium, beryllium, and boron. By using measured isotopic abundances of lithium, beryllium, and boron, Garcia-Munoz et al. (1979) were able to place limits on three important parameters of a leaky box propagation model. The considered parameters include the source spectral parameter, the leakage mean free path, and the characteristic adiabatic energy loss due to solar modulation. The present investigation is concerned with a critical evaluation of the information which can be deduced about these parameters from isotopic composition alone, taking into account the effects of uncertainties in the spallation cross section data.

Hinshaw, G. F.↗

Interplanetary Fast Shocks and Associated Drivers Observed through the Twenty-Third Solar Minimum by WIND Over its First 2.5 Years

A list of the interplanetary (IP) shocks observed by WIND from its launch (in November 1994) to May 1997 is presented. Forty two shocks were identified. The magnetohydrodynamic nature of the shocks is investigated, and the associated shock parameters and their uncertainties are accurately computed using a practical scheme which combines two techniques. These techniques are a combination of the "pre-averaged" magnetic-coplanarity, velocity-coplanarity, and the Abraham-Schrauner-mixed methods, on the one hand, and the Vinas and Scudder [1986] technique for solving the non-linear least-squares Rankine-Hugoniot shock equations, on the other. Within acceptable limits these two techniques generally gave the same results, with some exceptions. The reasons for the exceptions are discussed. It is found that the mean strength and rate of occurrence of the shocks appears to correlated with the solar cycle. Both showed a decrease in 1996 coincident with the time of the lowest ultraviolet solar radiance, indicative of solar minimum and start of solar cycle 23, which began around June 1996. Eighteen shocks appeared to be associated with corotating interaction regions (CIRs). The distribution of their shock normals showed a mean direction peaking in the ecliptic plane and with a longitude (phi(sub n)) in that plane between perpendicular to the Parker spiral and radial from the Sun. When grouped according to the sense of the direction of propagation of the shocks the mean azimuthal (longitude) angle in GSE coordinates was approximately 194 deg for the fast-forward and approximately 20 deg for the fast-reverse shocks. Another 16 shocks were determined to be driven by solar transients, including magnetic clouds. These shocks had a broader distribution of normal directions than those of the CIR cases with a mean direction close to the Sun-Earth line. Eight shocks of unknown origin had normal orientation well off the ecliptic plane. No shock propagated with longitude phi(sub n) >= 220 +/- 10 deg, this would suggest strong hindrance to the propagation of shocks contra a rather tightly winding Parker spiral. Examination of the obliquity angle theta(sub Bn) (that between the shock normal and the upstream interplanetary magnetic field) for the full set of shocks revealed that about 58% was quasi-perpendicular, and some were very nearly perpendicular. About 32% of the shocks were oblique, and the rest (only 10%) were quasi-parallel, with one on Dec. 9, 1996 that showed field pulsations. Small uncertainty in the estimated angle theta(sub Bn) was obtained for about 10 shocks with magnetosonic Mach numbers between 1 and 2, hopefully significantly contributing to studies researching particle acceleration mechanisms at IP shocks, and to investigations where accurate values of theta(sub Bn) are crucial.

Mariani, F.↗

InterGraph-CPS: A Graph-Theoretic Approach to Characterize Cross-Domain Cyber-Physical Interdependencies and Uncertainties in Electric Grid Systems for Improved Decision-Making in Operation and Response

Critical infrastructure systems such as the electric grid are increasingly cyber-physical; yet, despite the cyber-physical characteristics of critical infrastructure systems, the physical process system and communication/control network system are traditionally analyzed in siloes. As these systems become more cyber-physical, it is crucial that models and methods are available to assess the cyber physical system (CPS) interdependencies, characteristics, and event propagation for improved planning, operation, and response. Thus, we proposed an integrated structural and temporal CPS interdependency analysis framework, InterGraph-CPS, that provides insight into the CPS function during normal operation as well as disturbances. This integrated structural and temporal interdependency framework is uniquely designed for assessing CPSs by account for the challenges of analyzing cyber and physical data streams together due to data availability, data type, and time scale differences. By leveraging both structural (e.g., graph analysis) and temporal (e.g., data analytics) techniques, different CPS behaviors and configurations can be accounted for.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Ordered magnetic fields around the 3C 84 central black hole

Context. 3C 84 is a nearby radio source with a complex total intensity structure, showing linear polarisation and spectral patterns. A detailed investigation of the central engine region necessitates the use of very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) above the hitherto available maximum frequency of 86 GHz.Aims. Using ultrahigh resolution VLBI observations at the currently highest available frequency of 228 GHz, we aim to perform a direct detection of compact structures and understand the physical conditions in the compact region of 3C 84.Methods. We used Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) 228 GHz observations and, given the limited (u, v)-coverage, applied geometric model fitting to the data. Furthermore, we employed quasi-simultaneously observed, ancillary multi-frequency VLBI data for the source in order to carry out a comprehensive analysis of the core structure.Results. We report the detection of a highly ordered, strong magnetic field around the central, supermassive black hole of 3C 84. The brightness temperature analysis suggests that the system is in equipartition. We also determined a turnover frequency of νm = (113 ± 4) GHz, a corresponding synchrotron self-absorbed magnetic field of BSSA = (2.9 ± 1.6) G, and an equipartition magnetic field of Beq = (5.2 ± 0.6) G. Three components are resolved with the highest fractional polarisation detected for this object (mnet = (17.0 ± 3.9)%). The positions of the components are compatible with those seen in low-frequency VLBI observations since 2017–2018. We report a steeply negative slope of the spectrum at 228 GHz. We used these findings to test existing models of jet formation, propagation, and Faraday rotation in 3C 84.Conclusions. The findings of our investigation into different flow geometries and black hole spins support an advection-dominated accretion flow in a magnetically arrested state around a rapidly rotating supermassive black hole as a model of the jet-launching system in the core of 3C 84. However, systematic uncertainties due to the limited (u, v)-coverage, however, cannot be ignored. Our upcoming work using new EHT data, which offer full imaging capabilities, will shed more light on the compact region of 3C 84.Key words: techniques: high angular resolution / techniques: interferometric / galaxies: active / galaxies: individual: NGC 1275 / galaxies: jets

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Observation of millihertz-level cooperative Lamb shifts in an optical atomic clock

Collective couplings of atomic dipoles to a shared electromagnetic environment produce a wide range of many-body phenomena. We report on the direct observation of resonant electric dipole-dipole interactions in a cubic array of atoms in the many-excitation limit. The interactions produce spatially dependent cooperative Lamb shifts when spectroscopically interrogating the millihertz-wide optical clock transition in strontium-87. We show that the ensemble-averaged shifts can be suppressed below the level of evaluated systematic uncertainties for optical atomic clocks. Additionally, we demonstrate that excitation of the atomic dipoles near a Bragg angle can enhance these effects by nearly an order of magnitude compared with nonresonant geometries. Our work demonstrates a platform for precise studies of the quantum many-body physics of spins with long-range interactions mediated by propagating photons.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗