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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2002

Buckling Load Calculations of the Isotropic Shell A-8 Using a High-Fidelity Hierarchical Approach

As a step towards developing a new design philosophy, one that moves away from the traditional empirical approach used today in design towards a science-based design technology approach, a test series of 7 isotropic shells carried out by Aristocrat and Babcock at Caltech is used. It is shown how the hierarchical approach to buckling load calculations proposed by Arbocz et al can be used to perform an approach often called 'high fidelity analysis', where the uncertainties involved in a design are simulated by refined and accurate numerical methods. The Delft Interactive Shell DEsign COde (short, DISDECO) is employed for this hierarchical analysis to provide an accurate prediction of the critical buckling load of the given shell structure. This value is used later as a reference to establish the accuracy of the Level-3 buckling load predictions. As a final step in the hierarchical analysis approach, the critical buckling load and the estimated imperfection sensitivity of the shell are verified by conducting an analysis using a sufficiently refined finite element model with one of the current generation two-dimensional shell analysis codes with the advanced capabilities needed to represent both geometric and material nonlinearities.

Arbocz, Johann↗
NASA NTRS2006

Stochastic Simulation Tool for Aerospace Structural Analysis

Stochastic simulation refers to incorporating the effects of design tolerances and uncertainties into the design analysis model and then determining their influence on the design. A high-level evaluation of one such stochastic simulation tool, the MSC.Robust Design tool by MSC.Software Corporation, has been conducted. This stochastic simulation tool provides structural analysts with a tool to interrogate their structural design based on their mathematical description of the design problem using finite element analysis methods. This tool leverages the analyst's prior investment in finite element model development of a particular design. The original finite element model is treated as the baseline structural analysis model for the stochastic simulations that are to be performed. A Monte Carlo approach is used by MSC.Robust Design to determine the effects of scatter in design input variables on response output parameters. The tool was not designed to provide a probabilistic assessment, but to assist engineers in understanding cause and effect. It is driven by a graphical-user interface and retains the engineer-in-the-loop strategy for design evaluation and improvement. The application problem for the evaluation is chosen to be a two-dimensional shell finite element model of a Space Shuttle wing leading-edge panel under re-entry aerodynamic loading. MSC.Robust Design adds value to the analysis effort by rapidly being able to identify design input variables whose variability causes the most influence in response output parameters.

Knight, Norman F.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Quantification of CFD Model Assumptions Against Sonic Boom Noise Prediction of a Commercial Supersonic Transport

This paper presents the results of uncertainty modeling of sonic boom noise generation from commercial supersonic transport considering the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) turbulence modeling parameters as well as Mach number, angle of attack and altitude. Sample generation and analysis for this uncertainty model was performed by UQPCE, which is a software package developed at the NASA Langley Research Center. To build the uncertainty model, 42 cases of sonic boom noise calculation were performed. Computation of the ground noise can be briefly summarized in two steps. First, the near field pressure waveforms are sampled from CFD calculation using the NASA Langley’s FUN3D solver. Second, this information is passed to an atmospheric propagation code, sBOOM, which solves an augmented Burger’s equation and simulates how the near field waveforms will change while passing through the atmosphere. The ground signature is further processed to obtain the perceived loudness, PLdB. Having a high spatial resolution near the shockwave in the CFD calculation is critical in sonic boom noise prediction. Because the variation in the input parameters for the current uncertainty quantification (UQ) study is likely to lead to change in shock location, angle and strength, the grid adaptation for shock capturing is independently applied for each condition. The final mesh used in the CFD calculation consists of approximately 420 million cells. The pressure signatures are sampled at three, four and five body lengths away from the aircraft to make sure the three dimensional effects around the aircraft are resolved. The results of the UQ analysis shows that within the three aleatory variables, the angle of attack had the most impact against ground noise, followed by the altitude and the Mach number. Between the two SA model parameters, the Kármán constant (𝜅) was significantly more important than the turbulent Prandtl number (𝜎), but these two parameters were only marginally significant in the overall prediction variance in ground noise. The UQ procedure explained in this paper can be widely applied to other model parameters.

Uncertainty Quantification↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Quantification of CFD Model Assumptions Against Sonic Boom Noise Prediction of a Commercial Supersonic Transport

This paper presents the results of uncertainty modeling of sonic boom noise generation from commercial supersonic transport considering the Spalart-Allmaras (SA) turbulence modeling parameters as well as Mach number, angle of attack and altitude. Sample generation and analysis for this uncertainty model was performed by UQPCE, which is a software package developed at the NASA Langley Research Center. To build the uncertainty model, 42 cases of sonic boom noise calculation were performed. Computation of the ground noise can be briefly summarized in two steps. First, the near field pressure waveforms are sampled from CFD calculation using the NASA Langley’s FUN3D solver. Second, this information is passed to an atmospheric propagation code, sBOOM, which solves an augmented Burger’s equation and simulates how the near field waveforms will change while passing through the atmosphere. The ground signature is further processed to obtain the perceived loudness, PLdB. Having a high spatial resolution near the shock wave in the CFD calculation is critical in sonic boom noise prediction. Because the variation in the input parameters for the current uncertainty quantification (UQ) study is likely to lead to change in shock location, angle and strength, the grid adaptation for shock capturing is independently applied for each condition. The final mesh used in the CFD calculation consists of approximately 420 million cells. The pressure signatures are sampled at three, four and five body lengths away from the aircraft to make sure the three dimensional effects around the aircraft are resolved. The results of the UQ analysis shows that within the three aleatory variables, the angle of attack had the most impact against ground noise, followed by the altitude and the Mach number. Between the two SA model parameters, the Kármán constant (𝜅) was significantly more important than the turbulent Prandtl number (𝜎), but these two parameters were only marginally significant in the overall prediction variance in ground noise. The UQ procedure explained in this paper can be widely applied to other model parameters.

Uncertainty Quantifications↗
DOE OSTI2021

Measuring Electron Diffusion and Constraining the Neutral Current $\pi^0$ Background for Single-Photon Events in MicroBooNE

Liquid Argon Time Projection Chambers (LArTPCs) are a rising technology in the field of experimental neutrino physics. LArTPCs use ionization electrons and scintillation light to reconstruct neutrino interactions with exceptional calorimetric and position resolution capabilities. Here, I present two analyses conducted in the MicroBooNE LArTPC at Fermilab: a measurement of the longitudinal electron diffusion coefficient, $D_L$, in the MicroBooNE detector and a constraint of the systematic uncertainty on MicroBooNE's single-photon analysis due to the dominant neutral current (NC) \piz{} background. Longitudinal electron diffusion modifies the spatial and timing resolution of the detector, and measuring it will help correct for these effects. Furthermore, current measurements of $D_L$ in liquid argon are sparse and in tension with one another, making the MicroBooNE measurement especially valuable. We report a measurement of $3.74^{+0.28}_{-0.29}$ cm$^2$/s. MicroBooNE is searchin g for si ngle-photon events as a potential explanation for the MiniBooNE low-energy excess (LEE) of electron neutrino-like events, which has been interpreted as evidence for low-mass sterile neutrinos. However, this search is overwhelmed by a large NC \piz{} background. By performing a sideband selection of NC \piz{} events, we apply a data-driven rate constraint to the single-photon analysis to reduce the systematic uncertainties. At present, this constraint improves the single-photon analysis' median sensitivity to the LEE-like signal from 0.9$\sigma$ to $1.5\sigma$. This sensitivity is expected to improve significantly as more data become available. Both of these measurements will not only benefit MicroBooNE, but also inform future LArTPC experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Simons Observatory: impact of bandpass, polarization angle and calibration uncertainties on small-scale power spectrum analysis

We study the effects due to mismatches in passbands, polarization angles, and temperature and polarization calibrations in the context of the upcoming cosmic microwave background experiment Simons Observatory (SO). Using the SO multi-frequency likelihood, we estimate the bias and the degradation of constraining power in cosmological and astrophysical foreground parameters assuming different levels of knowledge of the instrumental effects. We find that incorrect but reasonable assumptions about the values ofall the systematics examined here can have significant effects on cosmologicalanalyses, hence requiring marginalization approaches at the likelihood level.When doing so, we find that the most relevant effect is due to bandpass shifts. When marginalizing over them, the posteriors of parameters describing astrophysical microwave foregrounds (such as radio point sources or dust) get degraded, while cosmological parameters constraints are not significantly affected.Marginalization over polarization angles with up to 0.25$^{°}$ uncertainty causes an irrelevant bias ≲ 0.05 σ in all parameters.Marginalization over calibration factors in polarization broadens the constraints on the effective number of relativistic degrees of freedom N$_{eff}$ by a factor 1.2, interpreted here as a proxy parameter for non standard model physics targeted by high-resolution CMB measurements.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toward Quantity-of-Interest Preserving Lossy Compression for Scientific Data

Today's scientific simulations and instruments are producing a large amount of data, leading to difficulties in storing, transmitting, and analyzing these data. While error-controlled lossy compressors are effective in significantly reducing data volumes and efficiently developing databases for multiple scientific applications, they mainly support error controls on raw data, which leaves a significant gap between the data and user's downstream analysis. This may cause unqualified uncertainties in the outcomes of the analysis, a.k.a quantities of interest (QoIs), which are the major concerns of users in adopting lossy compression in practice. In this paper, we propose rigorous mathematical theories to preserve four families of QoIs that are widely used in scientific analysis during lossy compression along with practical implementations. Specifically, we first develop the error control theory for univariate QoIs which are essential for computing physical properties such as kinetic energy, followed by multivariate QoIs that are more commonly used in real-world applications. The proposed method is integrated into a state-of-the-art compression framework in a modular fashion, which could easily adapt to new QoIs and new compression algorithms. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed method provides faithful error control on important QoIs including kinetic energy, regional average, and isosurface without trials and errors, while offering compression ratios that are up to 4x of the compression ratios provided by state-of-the-art compressors.

Jiao, Pu↗
DOE OSTI2020

Summary of Expedited Results from Samples Supporting Tank Closure Cesium Removal (TCCR) Batch 3

Savannah River Remediation (SRR) is currently operating the Tank Closure Cesium Removal (TCCR) process to remove 137 Cs from tank waste supernate using an ion exchange process. As part of that process, Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) receives and analyzes samples in support of the qualification of each batch to be processed. SRNL recently received supernate samples retrieved from Tank 10H as well as in-tank batch contact samples for characterization in support of qualifying Batch 3 for processing through the TCCR unit. SRNL received and characterized a set of dip samples collected from Tank 10H (one surface and one variable depth sample). No solids were observed in either sample and therefore the samples were combined, and a suite of analyses were performed on the composite sample. The density of the combined sample was 1.174 g/mL (0.18 %RSD), which was consistent with the measured sodium concentration of 3.54 M (0.08 %RSD). The 137Cs activity in the sample was 4.75E+07 dpm/mL (4.28 %RSD) and the total Cs concentration was calculated to be 1.54 mg/L (1.16E-05 M). The in-tank batch contact samples consist of 0.1 g of crystalline silicotitanate (CST) contained within a teabag device. Duplicate samples were submerged in Tank 10H supernate for a period of about 13 days, after which time they were retrieved and transferred to SRNL for analysis. At SRNL the CST was rinsed to remove excess salt solution and the CST was then air dried before being digested for analysis. Results of the analysis indicated a 137 Cs loading of 3.66E+10 ± 1.40E+09 dpm/g or 16.5 ± 0.63 Ci/kg CST . This value represents a bounding upper limit as it includes the addition of two sigma uncertainty from replicate analysis of the individual teabag samples as well as the addition of the small amount of 137 Cs activity measured in the rinse solutions. The above values are based on the air-dried mass of CST. Correcting to the true dry mass using a F-factor of 0.8191 results in a maximum loading of 20.2 ± 0.77 Ci/kg CST .

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Methodological Overview of Seismic Analysis for Nuclear Event Detection

Underground explosions generate potentially detectable signatures, including energy waves that travel through the Earth’s subsurface (i.e., seismic waves), low-frequency sound waves (i.e., infrasound and hydroacoustic waves), and radioactive gases and/or particles that might leak from the test cavity (if the event was nuclear). There can also be intelligence indicators of a test, such as observations of modified patterns of life and activity at a suspected test site. If all of these detectable signatures and intelligence indicators are present and self-consistent, then analysts have high confidence in classifying a signature generating event as an explosion. However, because only partial information about an event is likely to be available, determining whether an event was natural (e.g., an earthquake or landslide) or manmade (e.g., a chemical or nuclear explosion) is much more challenging. This primer describes how one category of event signatures—seismic signatures—can augment event analyses. While universities and government organizations have generated detailed technical descriptions of seismic analytic techniques, we seek to translate seismic event analysis for a broad, non-technical audience. When the geologic conditions near an event are well-characterized, seismic data can be used to calculate critical information, such as event location and depth, with relatively high accuracy. Moreover, specific features within seismic datasets can help determine whether an event was an explosion. However, a key challenge in seismic analysis is that geologic site conditions are often poorly characterized, complicating the ability to discern the true nature of the event. To overcome this challenge, geologists answer a series of questions (discussed in section 1) to guide seismic event analysis and determine the most probable nature of an event. As more information is gathered during each analytic step, confidence grows regarding the nature of the event. Section 2 addresses uncertainties in seismic analysis and the vital nature of high-fidelity geologic data for accurate seismic event analysis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Techno-Economic Analysis and Market Potential of Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) Charged With Solar Thermal and Heat Pumps

In this project, we developed a techno-economic analysis (TEA) model that can be used to evaluate the viability of a proposed Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) design. This MATLAB-based model integrates distinct subsystem models for the reservoir, wells, power cycle, and solar field to capture their distinct characteristics. It applies this approach in simulating GeoTES storage and dispatch operations for durations ranging from hourly to seasonal. Using cases studies based on GeoTES designs provided by industry partners - Premier Resource Management (PRM) and EarthBridge Energy - we validated the TEA model estimations of system performance and costs (such as thermal and electrical power/energy inflow and outflow, capital costs, and levelized costs of energy and storage) for both concentrating solar thermal (CST) and Carnot Battery (CB) pairings with GeoTES (CST-GeoTES and CB-GeoTES). For the CST-GeoTES case, the model was validated against the proposed system designed by PRM. It showed good agreement with PRM's estimations when well and pump costs derived from PRM's estimations were used. When GETEM-based costs were used, there was a slight overprediction due to GETEM's project/site agnostic assumption of these costs. From a sensitivity analysis perspective, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of the CST-GeoTES case was most sensitive to well flow rate and the charging temperature. An optimal design scenario resulted in an LCOE of 0.11 $\$$/kWhe. CST-GeoTES can also provide a source of heat to meet seasonal demands. With 12-hour and 24-hour levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of 0.018 $\$$/kWhth and 0.022 $\$$/kWhth, respectively, CST-GeoTES could be competitive in the California market with an average industrial price of natural gas in California between 0.041-0.047 $\$$/kWhth. The levelized cost of storage (LCOS) for CST-GeoTES depends on the energy storage duration. Although the LCOS is relatively higher for shorter durations (e.g., ~0.50 $\$$/kWhe for 1 hour of storage), it is an order of magnitude lower (0.06 $\$$/kWhe) for longer storage durations and competitive with lithium-ion batteries (beyond 12 hours of storage) and molten-salt thermal energy storage (beyond 32 hours). Energy. Three options were explored and applied to the EarthBridge case study: (1) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with both hot and cold storage; (2) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with only hot storage; (3) A Carnot Battery using a commercially available heat pump with carbon dioxide (CO2) working fluid and hot storage only. The CB-GeoTES with cold storage only had a slight (round-trip) efficiency advantage over the system without (43.4% vs. 42.8%). This is because the cold storage is limited by the freezing point of water, so the cold storage is not much colder than the environment. The system using commercially available technologies was the least efficient - partly because different cycles were used in the heat pump (CO2) and heat engine (binary cycle) which leads to some inefficiencies. Using the commercially available design, the levelized cost of energy (LCOS) from the model (0.10 $\$$/kWhe) was higher than that estimated by EarthBridge (0.068 $\$$/kWhe). This is because of the low round-trip (38.7%) efficiency of the commercially available design. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the model is most sensitive to electricity price. Including electricity price in the TEA for CB-GeoTES leads to an increase in LCOS from the base value to 0.25 $\$$/kWhe. To determine storage sites suitable for GeoTES, we gathered and analyzed geological, petrophysical, and geophysical data of oil and gas reservoir and aquifers in California and Texas. We down-selected possible sites based on cut-off values for site characteristics (e.g., reservoir temperature, formation thickness, permeability, porosity, depth, and brine salinity) and preliminary costs. Using this approach, the Carrizo-Wilcox, Yegua-Jackson, and Dockum brackish aquifers in Texas were identified as having the highest suitability. Similarly, in the central California region, the White Wolf, Belridge South Tulare, and Belridge South Reef Ridge were the most suitable. Going further, we assessed the storage potential in the selected sites. To do this we developed distributions of reservoir characteristic data and applied a Monte Carlo-based analysis to account for intrinsic uncertainty in the acquired data. The analysis revealed that the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer had the highest storage potential with a mean capacity of 554 TWhth (i.e., 63 TWhe). The estimated capacity serves as an upper limit of storage potential given that not all fields in the basin will be developed. We participated in multiple outreach activities including conference presentations, panel session discussions, and the facilitation of a GeoTES workshop at the NREL Golden campus.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data Assimilation using Non-invasive Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis of Reactor Kinetics Parameters

Accurately predicting the criticality of an experiment before interacting with the experimental components is very important for criticality safety. Radiation transport software can be utilized to calculate the effective neutron multiplication factor of a nuclear system. Because of the integral nature of the effective neutron multiplication factor, the value calculated contains various sources of nuclear-data induced uncertainty. The sensitivity analysis and data assimilation technique presented in this paper exhibit one possible method of identifying and reducing the effective neutron multiplication factor nuclear-data induced uncertainty. The results presented in this work show that it is possible to use relative sensitivity coefficients of the prompt neutron decay constant and the effective delayed neutron fraction to 239 Pu nuclear data to reduce nuclear-data induced uncertainties in the effective neutron multiplication factor. This work has been utilized by members of the Los Alamos National Laboratory project EUCLID (Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in Nuclear Data) for optimally designing a new experiment, which will be used to reduce compensating errors in 239 Pu nuclear data.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2014

Secular Climate Change on Mars: An Update Using One Mars Year of MSL Pressure Data

The South Polar Residual Cap (SPRC) on Mars is an icy reservoir of CO2. If all the CO2 trapped in the SPRC were released to the atmosphere the mean annual global surface pressure would rise by approximately 20 Pa. Repeated MOC and HiRISE imaging of scarp retreat within the SPRC led to suggestions that the SPRC is losing mass. Estimates for the loss rate vary between 0. 5 Pa per Mars Decade to 13 Pa per Mars Decade. Assuming 80% of this loss goes directly into the atmosphere, an estimate based on some modeling (Haberle and Kahre, 2010), and that the loss is monotonic, the global annual mean surface pressure should have increased between approximately 1-20 Pa since the Viking mission (approximately 20 Mars years ago). Surface pressure measurements by the Phoenix Lander only 2.5 Mars years ago were found to be consistent with these loss rates. Last year at this meeting we compared surface pressure data from the MSL mission through sol 360 with that from Viking Lander 2 (VL-2) for the same period to determine if the trend continues. The results were ambiguous. This year we have a full Mars year of MSL data to work with. Using the Ames GCM to compensate for dynamics and environmental differences, our analysis suggests that the mean annual pressure has decreased by approximately 8 Pa since Viking. This result implies that the SPRC has gained (not lost) mass since Viking. However, the estimated uncertainties in our analysis are easily at the 10 Pa level and possibly higher. Chief among these are the hydrostatic adjustment of surface pressure from grid point elevations to actual elevations and the simulated regional environmental conditions at the lander sites. For these reasons, the most reasonable conclusion is that there is no significant difference in the size of the atmosphere between now and Viking. This implies, but does not demand, that the mass of the SPRC has not changed since Viking. Of course, year-to-year variations are possible as implied by the Phoenix data. Given that there has been no unusual behavior in the climate system as observed by a variety of spacecraft at Mars since Phoenix, its seems more likely that the Phoenix data simply did not have a long enough record to accurately determine annual mean pressure changes as Haberle and Kahre (2010) cautioned. In the absence of a strong signal in the MSL data, we conclude that if the SPRC is loosing mass it is not going into the atmosphere reservoir.

Phoenix data↗
NASA NTRS1991

Robust control of systems with real parameter uncertainty and unmodelled dynamics

During this research period we have made significant progress in the four proposed areas: (1) design of robust controllers via H infinity optimization; (2) design of robust controllers via mixed H2/H infinity optimization; (3) M-delta structure and robust stability analysis for structured uncertainties; and (4) a study on controllability and observability of perturbed plant. It is well known now that the two-Riccati-equation solution to the H infinity control problem can be used to characterize all possible stabilizing optimal or suboptimal H infinity controllers if the optimal H infinity norm or gamma, an upper bound of a suboptimal H infinity norm, is given. In this research, we discovered some useful properties of these H infinity Riccati solutions. Among them, the most prominent one is that the spectral radius of the product of these two Riccati solutions is a continuous, nonincreasing, convex function of gamma in the domain of interest. Based on these properties, quadratically convergent algorithms are developed to compute the optimal H infinity norm. We also set up a detailed procedure for applying the H infinity theory to robust control systems design. The desire to design controllers with H infinity robustness but H(exp 2) performance has recently resulted in mixed H(exp 2) and H infinity control problem formulation. The mixed H(exp 2)/H infinity problem have drawn the attention of many investigators. However, solution is only available for special cases of this problem. We formulated a relatively realistic control problem with H(exp 2) performance index and H infinity robustness constraint into a more general mixed H(exp 2)/H infinity problem. No optimal solution yet is available for this more general mixed H(exp 2)/H infinity problem. Although the optimal solution for this mixed H(exp 2)/H infinity control has not yet been found, we proposed a design approach which can be used through proper choice of the available design parameters to influence both robustness and performance. For a large class of linear time-invariant systems with real parametric perturbations, the coefficient vector of the characteristic polynomial is a multilinear function of the real parameter vector. Based on this multilinear mapping relationship together with the recent developments for polytopic polynomials and parameter domain partition technique, we proposed an iterative algorithm for coupling the real structured singular value.

Chang, Bor-Chin↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of stagnation performance metrics in magnetized liner inertial fusion experiments using Bayesian data assimilation

Here we present a new analysis methodology that allows for the self-consistent integration of multiple diagnostics including nuclear measurements, x-ray imaging, and x-ray power detectors to determine the primary stagnation parameters, such as temperature, pressure, stagnation volume, and mix fraction in magnetized liner inertial fusion (MagLIF) experiments. The analysis uses a simplified model of the stagnation plasma in conjunction with a Bayesian inference framework to determine the most probable configuration that describes the experimental observations while simultaneously revealing the principal uncertainties in the analysis. We validate the approach by using a range of tests including analytic and three-dimensional MHD models. An ensemble of MagLIF experiments is analyzed, and the generalized Lawson criterion χ is estimated for all experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1991

Statistics of gravitational lenses - The uncertainties

The assumptions in the analysis of gravitational lensing statistics are examined. Special emphasis is given to the uncertainties in the theoretical predictions. It is shown that a simple redshift cutoff model, which may result from galaxy evolution, can significantly reduce the lensing probability and explain the large mean separation of images in observed gravitational lenses. This effect may affect the constraint on the contribution of the cosmological constant to producing a flat universe from the number counts of the observed lenses. For the Omega(0) = 1 (filled beam) model, the lensing probability of early-type galaxies with finite core radii is reduced roughly by a factor of 2 for high-redshift quasars as compared with the corresponding singular isothermal sphere model. The finite core radius effect is about 20 percent for a lambda-dominated flat universe. It is also shown that the most recent galaxy luminosity function gives lensing probabilities that are smaller than previously estimated roughly by a factor of 3.

Mao, Shude↗
NASA NTRS2012

Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation

At the request of NASA, the National Research Council's (NRC's) Committee for Evaluation of Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model1 reviewed a number of changes that NASA proposes to make to its model for estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer in astronauts. The NASA model in current use was last updated in 2005, and the proposed model would incorporate recent research directed at improving the quantification and understanding of the health risks posed by the space radiation environment. NASA's proposed model is defined by the 2011 NASA report Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties--2010 . The committee's evaluation is based primarily on this source, which is referred to hereafter as the 2011 NASA report, with mention of specific sections or tables. The overall process for estimating cancer risks due to low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation exposure has been fully described in reports by a number of organizations. The approaches described in the reports from all of these expert groups are quite similar. NASA's proposed space radiation cancer risk assessment model calculates, as its main output, age- and gender-specific risk of exposure-induced death (REID) for use in the estimation of mission and astronaut-specific cancer risk. The model also calculates the associated uncertainties in REID. The general approach for estimating risk and uncertainty in the proposed model is broadly similar to that used for the current (2005) NASA model and is based on recommendations by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements. However, NASA's proposed model has significant changes with respect to the following: the integration of new findings and methods into its components by taking into account newer epidemiological data and analyses, new radiobiological data indicating that quality factors differ for leukemia and solid cancers, an improved method for specifying quality factors in terms of radiation track structure concepts as opposed to the previous approach based on linear energy transfer, the development of a new solar particle event (SPE) model, and the updates to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) and shielding transport models. The newer epidemiological information includes updates to the cancer incidence rates from the life span study (LSS) of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors, transferred to the U.S. population and converted to cancer mortality rates from U.S. population statistics. In addition, the proposed model provides an alternative analysis applicable to lifetime never-smokers (NSs). Details of the uncertainty analysis in the model have also been updated and revised. NASA's proposed model and associated uncertainties are complex in their formulation and as such require a very clear and precise set of descriptions. The committee found the 2011 NASA report challenging to review largely because of the lack of clarity in the model descriptions and derivation of the various parameters used. The committee requested some clarifications from NASA throughout its review and was able to resolve many, but not all, of the ambiguities in the written description.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2012

Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation

At the request of NASA, the National Research Council's (NRC's) Committee for Evaluation of Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model reviewed a number of changes that NASA proposes to make to its model for estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer in astronauts. The NASA model in current use was last updated in 2005, and the proposed model would incorporate recent research directed at improving the quantification and understanding of the health risks posed by the space radiation environment. NASA's proposed model is defined by the 2011 NASA report Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties 2010 (Cucinotta et al., 2011). The committee's evaluation is based primarily on this source, which is referred to hereafter as the 2011 NASA report, with mention of specific sections or tables cited more formally as Cucinotta et al. (2011). The overall process for estimating cancer risks due to low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation exposure has been fully described in reports by a number of organizations. They include, more recently: (1) The "BEIR VII Phase 2" report from the NRC's Committee on Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) (NRC, 2006); (2) Studies of Radiation and Cancer from the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR, 2006), (3) The 2007 Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), ICRP Publication 103 (ICRP, 2007); and (4) The Environmental Protection Agency s (EPA s) report EPA Radiogenic Cancer Risk Models and Projections for the U.S. Population (EPA, 2011). The approaches described in the reports from all of these expert groups are quite similar. NASA's proposed space radiation cancer risk assessment model calculates, as its main output, age- and gender-specific risk of exposure-induced death (REID) for use in the estimation of mission and astronaut-specific cancer risk. The model also calculates the associated uncertainties in REID. The general approach for estimating risk and uncertainty in the proposed model is broadly similar to that used for the current (2005) NASA model and is based on recommendations by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP, 2000, 2006). However, NASA's proposed model has significant changes with respect to the following: the integration of new findings and methods into its components by taking into account newer epidemiological data and analyses, new radiobiological data indicating that quality factors differ for leukemia and solid cancers, an improved method for specifying quality factors in terms of radiation track structure concepts as opposed to the previous approach based on linear energy transfer, the development of a new solar particle event (SPE) model, and the updates to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) and shielding transport models. The newer epidemiological information includes updates to the cancer incidence rates from the life span study (LSS) of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors (Preston et al., 2007), transferred to the U.S. population and converted to cancer mortality rates from U.S. population statistics. In addition, the proposed model provides an alternative analysis applicable to lifetime never-smokers (NSs). Details of the uncertainty analysis in the model have also been updated and revised. NASA's proposed model and associated uncertainties are complex in their formulation and as such require a very clear and precise set of descriptions. The committee found the 2011 NASA report challenging to review largely because of the lack of clarity in the model descriptions and derivation of the various parameters used. The committee requested some clarifications from NASA throughout its review and was able to resolve many, but not all, of the ambiguities in the written description.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toward the Advanced Manufacturing of Land-Based Wind Turbine Blades: Preprint

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and General Electric (GE) are partners within the Additive and Modular Enabled Rotor Blades and Integrated Composites Assembly (AMERICA) project. AMERICA aims to develop advanced manufacturing solutions to reduce labor and cycle time while increasing recyclability of wind turbine blades. The project is funded by the Advanced Manufacturing Office (AMO) of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). This paper describes the techno-economic analysis of the novel manufacturing process applied to the tip of the blade of a representative land-based wind turbine. A comparison to a standard manufacturing process is established, highlighting challenges and opportunities. Several uncertainties affect the analysis, but with the current set of assumptions, the tip adopting advanced manufacturing is predicted to lower labor by 21%, cycle time by 39%, and total blade tip costs by 15% while simultaneously increasing production quality and adopting recyclable thermoplastic resin.

3D printing↗