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Why Is Improvement of Earth System Models so Elusive? Challenges and Strategies from Dust Aerosol Modeling
Past decades have seen an accelerating increase in computing efficiency, while climate models are representing a rapidly widening set of physical processes. Yet simulations of some fundamental aspects of climate like precipitation or aerosol forcing remain highly uncertain and resistant to progress. Dust aerosol modeling of soil particles lofted by wind erosion has seen a similar conflict between increasing model sophistication and remaining uncertainty. Dust aerosols perturb the energy and water cycles by scattering radiation and acting as ice nuclei, while mediating atmospheric chemistry and marine photosynthesis (and thus the carbon cycle). These effects take place across scales from the dimensions of an ice crystal to the planetary-scale circulation that disperses dust far downwind of its parent soil. Representing this range leads to several modeling challenges. Should we limit complexity in our model, which consumes computer resources and inhibits interpretation? How do we decide if a process involving dust is worthy of inclusion within our model? Can we identify a minimal representation of a complex process that is efficient yet retains the physics relevant to climate? Answering these questions about the appropriate degree of representation is guided by model evaluation, which presents several more challenges. How do we proceed if the available observations do not directly constrain our process of interest? (This could result from competing processes that influence the observed variable and obscure the signature of our process of interest.) Examples will be presented from dust modeling, with lessons that might be more broadly applicable. The end result will either be clinical depression or there assuring promise of continued gainful employment as the community confronts these challenges.
Assimilation of Satellite Derived Soil Moisture Profiles into a Crop Modeling System for Robust Yield Estimates
Soil Moisture Measurement - Remote Sensing. - Microwave (MW) Remote Sensing: Physically based and quantitative in nature; Based on difference in dielectric constant; Coarse spatial resolution 25-40 km; Shallow SM estimation depth 0-5 cm (approx.); All weather capabilities (e.g. Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) etc.) - Thermal Infrared (TIR) Remote Sensing: Indirect SM retrieval through energy flux estimations; Relatively better spatial resolution 1-10 km; Root-zone moisture retrieval capability; Can not penetrate through clouds, hence data gaps (e.g. Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL), Atmospheric Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) etc.)
Assimilating SWOT Water Surface Elevations into the WRF-Hydro Modeling System in Alaska Using HydroDART
No abstract available
The Signature of Ozone Depletion in Recent Antarctic Precipitation Change: A Study with the Community Earth System Model
Although precipitation is a primary control on Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) mass balance, long-term historical AIS precipitation trends and their underlying external climate drivers remain inconclusive. In this study, we use a novel pair of climate model ensembles to identify a simulated spatial signature of ozone depletion-forced AIS precipitation change. Distinct areas of little change or precipitation decrease, arising from interaction between ozone depletion-forced atmospheric circulation changes and ice sheet topography, are outweighed by large-scale precipitation increases. This signature bears notable similarities to a new ice core-based reconstruction of AIS accumulation change and yields a significant increase in annual integrated precipitation (38 ± 10 Gt/year over the 1986–2005 period or 51 ± 11 Gt/year over the 1991–2005 period). Remarkably, this simulated ozone depletion-forced precipitation change is of a similar absolute magnitude to recent observed AIS mass loss trends and as a consequence, it may play a role in dampening recent AIS sea level rise contributions.
Real-Time NWP Simulations during the ICE-POP Field Campaign using the NASA Unified-WRF Modeling System
No abstract available
Use of CLM Carbon Dynamics in the Land Component of the NASA GMAO Earth System Model
No abstract available
A Mesh-Based Computation of Relative Sea Level for Earth System Modeling and Space Geodesy
No abstract available
An Overview of Technology Investments in the NASA Entry Systems Modeling Project
ESM was created with two primary technical areas: Aerosciences and Materials. One of the first project deliverables, in both technology areas, was the development of Key Performance Parameters (KPPs), which are used to gauge the rate of progress in technology maturation, and to inform eventual technology downselects. In addition, the project was tasked to identify stakeholders or customers for proposed technology investments. While pull technologies are permitted within STMD, those capabilities that have strong customer support and a clear infusion plan are given higher priority. The current investment portfolio and achievements will be summarized in this paper.
Influence of Sea-Ice Anomalies on Antarctic Precipitation Using Source Attribution in the Community Earth System Model
We conduct sensitivity experiments using a general circulation model that has an explicit water source tagging capability forced by prescribed composites of pre-industrial sea-ice concentrations (SICs) and corresponding sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to understand the impact of sea-ice anomalies on regional evaporation, moisture transport and source–receptor relationships for Antarctic precipitation in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. Surface sensible heat fluxes, evaporation and column-integrated water vapor are larger over Southern Ocean (SO) areas with lower SICs. Changes in Antarctic precipitation and its source attribution with SICs have a strong spatial variability. Among the tagged source regions, the Southern Ocean (south of 50∘ S) contributes the most (40 %) to the Antarctic total precipitation, followed by more northerly ocean basins, most notably the South Pacific Ocean (27%), southern Indian Ocean (16 %) and South Atlantic Ocean (11 %). Comparing two experiments prescribed with high and low pre-industrial SICs, respectively, the annual mean Antarctic precipitation is about 150 Gt yr−1 (or 6 %) more in the lower SIC case than in the higher SIC case. This difference is larger than the model-simulated interannual variability in Antarctic precipitation (99 Gt yr−1). The contrast in contribution from the Southern Ocean, 102 Gt yr−1, is even more significant compared to the interannual variability of 35 Gt yr−1 in Antarctic precipitation that originates from the Southern Ocean. The horizontal transport pathways from individual vapor source regions to Antarctica are largely determined by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Vapor from lower-latitude source regions takes elevated pathways to Antarctica. In contrast, vapor from the Southern Ocean moves southward within the lower troposphere to the Antarctic continent along moist isentropes that are largely shaped by local ambient conditions and coastal topography. This study also highlights the importance of atmospheric dynamics in affecting the thermodynamic impact of sea-ice anomalies associated with natural variability on Antarctic precipitation. Our analyses of the seasonal contrast in changes of basin-scale evaporation, moisture flux and precipitation suggest that the impact of SIC anomalies on regional Antarctic precipitation depends on dynamic changes that arise from SIC–SST perturbations along with internal variability. The latter appears to have a more significant effect on the moisture transport in austral winter than in summer.
Systems Engineering & Model Based Systems Engineering State of the Discipline
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How ExMC Communicates a Systems Model to Non-Modelers
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