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DOE OSTI2024

Large Ensemble Exploration of Global Energy Transitions Under National Emissions Pledges

Global climate goals require a transition to a deeply decarbonized energy system. Meeting the objectives of the Paris Agreement through countries' nationally determined contributions and long-term strategies represents a complex problem with consequences across multiple systems shrouded by deep uncertainty. Robust, large-ensemble methods and analyses mapping a wide range of possible future states of the world are needed to help policymakers design effective strategies to meet emissions reduction goals. This study contributes a scenario discovery analysis applied to a large ensemble of 5,760 model realizations generated using the Global Change Analysis Model. Eleven energy-related uncertainties are systematically varied, representing national mitigation pledges, institutional factors, and techno-economic parameters, among others. The resulting ensemble maps how uncertainties impact common energy system metrics used to characterize national and global pathways toward deep decarbonization. Results show globally consistent but regionally variable energy transitions as measured by multiple metrics, including electricity costs and stranded assets. Larger economies and developing regions experience more severe economic outcomes across a broad sampling of uncertainty. The scale of CO 2 removal globally determines how much the energy system can continue to emit, but the relative role of different CO 2 removal options in meeting decarbonization goals varies across regions. Previous studies characterizing uncertainty have typically focused on a few scenarios, and other large-ensemble work has not (to our knowledge) combined this framework with national emissions pledges or institutional factors. Our results underscore the value of large-ensemble scenario discovery for decision support as countries begin to design strategies to meet their goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Convergence Analysis for an Online Data-Driven Feedback Control Algorithm

This paper presents convergence analysis of a novel data-driven feedback control algorithm designed for generating online controls based on partial noisy observational data. The algorithm comprises a particle filter-enabled state estimation component, estimating the controlled system’s state via indirect observations, alongside an efficient stochastic maximum principle-type optimal control solver. By integrating weak convergence techniques for the particle filter with convergence analysis for the stochastic maximum principle control solver, we derive a weak convergence result for the optimization procedure in search of optimal data-driven feedback control. Numerical experiments are performed to validate the theoretical findings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

U.S. Efforts in Support of Examinations at Fukushima Daiichi- November 2020 Meeting Notes with Updated Information Requests

Much is still not known about the end-state of core materials in each unit that was operating on March 11, 2011 at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (Daiichi). Information obtained from Daiichi is required to inform Decontamination and Decommissioning (D&D) activities, improving the ability of the Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Incorporated (TEPCO Holdings) to characterize potential hazards and to ensure the safety of workers involved with cleanup activities. This information also has important implications for the safety and operation of U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. This document summarizes results from the Fiscal Year 2021 (FY2021) U.S. effort to review Daiichi information and extract insights to enhance the safety of existing and future nuclear power plant designs. This U.S. effort, which was initiated in 2014 by the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), is completed by a group of experts in reactor safety and plant operations that identify examination needs and evaluate recent Daiichi examination data to address these needs. Since its inception, annual reports were issued that document significant safety insights being obtained in areas of special emphasis: system and component performance, radionuclide surveys and sampling, debris end-state location, combustible gas effects, and plant operations and maintenance. In addition to reducing uncertainties related to severe accident modeling progression, these insights have and continue to be used to update guidance for severe accident prevention, mitigation, and emergency planning. Reduced uncertainties in modeling the events at Daiichi improve the realism of reactor safety evaluations that inform future D&D activities. A key aspect of prior U.S. efforts, the updated list of information requests, is included in this FY2021 report to ensure that they are transmitted to organizations within Japan. This report also continues to emphasize how information obtained from the affected reactors at Daiichi has been and will continue to be used to update severe accident management strategies and reduce uncertainties in systems analysis code models. In addition, recommendations are included that would expand the use of this information to provide insights regarding maintenance, radiation protection, design, and siting activities for existing and new reactors.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Monte–Carlo ray-tracing studies of multiplexed prismatic graphite analyzers for the cold-neutron triple-axis spectrometer at the High Flux Isotope Reactor

A modern cold triple-axis spectrometer to study quantum condensed matter systems is planned for the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Here, we describe the conceptual principles and design of a secondary spectrometer using a multiplexed, prismatic analyzer system relying on graphite crystals and inspired by the successful implementation of the Continuous Angle Multiple Energy Analysis (CAMEA) spectrometers at the Paul Scherrer Institute. This project is currently known as MANTA for Multi-Analyzer Neutron Triple-Axis. Here, we report Monte-Carlo ray-tracing simulations on a simple but realistic sample scattering kernel to further illustrate the prismatic analyzer concept’s workings, calibration, and performance. Then, we introduce a new statistical analysis approach based on the prismatic analyzer concept to improve the number of final energies measured on the spectrometer. We also study possible evolutions in the CAMEA design relevant for MANTA.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Scalable Pattern Matching in Metadata Graphs via Constraint Checking

Pattern matching is a fundamental tool for answering complex graph queries. Unfortunately, existing solutions have limited capabilities: They do not scale to process large graphs and/or support only a restricted set of search templates or usage scenarios. Moreover, the algorithms at the core of the existing techniques are not suitable for today’s graph processing infrastructures relying on horizontal scalability and shared-nothing clusters, as most of these algorithms are inherently sequential and difficult to parallelize. In this article we present an algorithmic pipeline that bases pattern matching on constraint checking. The key intuition is that each vertex and edge participating in a match has to meet a set of constraints implicitly specified by the search template. These constraints can be verified independently and typically are less expensive to compute than searching the full template. The pipeline we propose generates these constraints and iterates over them to eliminate all the vertices and edges that do not participate in any match, thus reducing the background graph to a subgraph that is the union of all template matches—the complete set of all vertices and edges that participate in at least one match. Additional analysis can be performed on this annotated, reduced graph, such as full match enumeration, match counting, or computing vertex/edge centrality. Furthermore, a vertex-centric formulation for constraint checking algorithms exists, and this makes it possible to harness existing high-performance, vertex-centric graph processing frameworks. This technique (i) enables highly scalable pattern matching in metadata (labeled) graphs; (ii) supports arbitrary patterns with 100% precision; (iii) enables tradeoffs between precision and time-to-solution, while always selects all vertices and edges that participate in matches, thus offering 100% recall; and (iv) supports a set of popular data analytics scenarios. We implement our approach on top of HavoqGT, an open-source asynchronous graph processing framework, and demonstrate its advantages through strong and weak scaling experiments on massive scale real-world (up to 257 billion edges) and synthetic (up to 4.4 trillion edges) labeled graphs, respectively, and at scales (1,024 nodes / 36,864 cores), orders of magnitude larger than used in the past for similar problems. This article serves two purposes: First, it synthesises the knowledge accumulated during a long-term project. Second, it presents new system features, usage scenarios, optimizations, and comparisons with related work that strengthen the confidence that pattern matching based on iterative pruning via constraint checking is an effective and scalable approach in practice. The new contributions include the following: (i) We demonstrate the ability of the constraint checking approach to efficiently support two additional search scenarios that often emerge in practice, interactive incremental search and exploratory search. (ii) We empirically compare our solution with two additional state-of-the-art systems, Arabsque and TriAD. (iii) We show the ability of our solution to accommodate a more diverse range of datasets with varying properties, e.g., scale, skewness, label distribution, and match frequency. (iv) We introduce or extend a number of system features (e.g., work aggregation, load balancing, and the ability to cap the generated traffic) and design optimizations and demonstrate their advantages with respect to improving performance and scalability. (v) We present bottleneck analysis and insights into artifacts that influence performance. (vi) We present a theoretical complexity argument that motivates the performance gains we observe.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Digital Engineering and Cybersecurity Decision Analysis in Early Phases of SMR-Driven IES Projects

Considerable efforts are underway to ensure cybersecurity is integrated into the systems engineering lifecycle. Cyber-informed engineering and security-by-design frameworks are intended to identify and engineer out cybersecurity risks throughout the lifecycle. While these approaches are valuable for promoting the need to include cybersecurity considerations in early design phases to create more secure systems, they may not consider the entirety of digital risks. Digital risks in a digital instrumentation and control system include adversarial and unintentional risks from internal and external factors, such as human performance errors, design flaws, environmental conditions, and equipment degradation or failure. This report provides a detailed discussion on digital risk prior to describing the background and concept of operations for a small modular reactor-driven integrated energy system connected to industrial applications. The challenges of competing objectives and competing stakeholder requirements are discussed and the impacts on digital engineering, security considerations, and interdependencies are evaluated for mission-level, facility-level, and system-level decisions.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2021

Full-Wave and Circuit-Based Simulations of Cable Insulation Aging/Damage Using Time-Frequency Domain Reflectometry

This paper presents a combined full-wave and circuit-based simulation study to investigate the important topic of cable insulation aging and physical damage. The analysis employs the time-frequency domain reflectometry (TFDR) technique that combines the advantages of both time domain reflectometry (TDR) and frequency domain reflectometry (FDR) for improved location identification and feature resolution. Coaxial cable sections with a location containing insulation aging or physical damage are simulated using Ansys High Frequency Structure Simulator (HFSS). Simulated scattering (S) parameters are then imported into the Advanced Design System (ADS) solver for time domain simulation where a Gaussian windowed chirp signal or ‘chirplet’ is launched. Finally, continuous wavelet transform (CWT) is applied in MATLAB to perform time-frequency analysis of the reflected waveforms. The results reveal that a small change in the relative permittivity of the insulation or the presence of a small point of physical damage on the insulation is reflected as a considerable change in the CWT magnitude demonstrating the efficacy of the method.

cable aging, Non Destructive Examination, time-fre↗

DOE OSTI2025

Thermal Analysis of a Solid Particle Light-Trapping Planar Cavity Receiver Using Computational Fluid Dynamics

Concentrated solar power (CSP) is one of the most effective ways of harnessing solar power to create efficient, durable, and resilient energy systems. This study entails thermal modeling and analysis of a novel central tower receiver configuration. This receiver uses solid particles as the heat transfer fluid (HTF), a promising option for third-generation CSP systems. The configuration considered here is the light-trapping planar cavity receiver (LTPCR) introduced by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. While heat transfer studies of various LTPCR subsystems have been done, system-level thermal analysis of the LTPCR receiver has not been attempted. This study also presents important sensitivity analyses of the operating parameters of the CSP system, which can help guide the design of future central tower receivers. This study employs Ansys Fluent as a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tool to model fluid dynamics and heat transfer in the receiver, intending to quantify its thermal performance. The model seamlessly integrates Monte Carlo ray tracing data, which generates absorbed solar flux profiles from the heliostat field design, with the heat transfer characteristics of the fluidized particle bed. This unified model is designed to accurately predict the thermal behavior of the LTPCR. Analysis of preliminary results reveals that the primary loss mechanisms are radiative and natural convective losses, in that order. Based on observations from a baseline case, several strategies are suggested and numerically tested. These solutions include selective cooling of high-temperature regions and manipulation of particle bed parameters. Selective cooling of high-temperature regions reduced the peak temperature by 151 degrees C and decreased thermal losses by 0.9%. Improving the particle-wall heat transfer coefficient (P-W HTC) of the particle bed decreased the thermal losses by 1.7% and decreased the peak temperatures by 57 degrees C. Decreasing the particle inlet temperature (PIT) also reduced thermal losses by 3.5% and decreased peak temperatures by 29 degrees C. Compounding these strategies improved the thermal losses of the receiver from 13.5% in the baseline case to 7.5%. Additionally, the study explores the variation in thermal performance across different locations of the receiver, where a variation of thermal losses from 12.9% to 17.3% is found. This allows a comprehensive evaluation of potential improvements in efficiency and temperature management.

computational fluid dynamics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Burnup Monitoring for Pebble Bed Reactor Systems

A pebble burnup monitoring system is a required component for domestic reactor safety and safeguards applications associated with pebble bed reactors (PBRs). One of the main requirements of a PBR burnup monitoring system is that it needs to be capable of rapid measurements to assess the burnup of each individual pebble to determine whether to recirculate it in the reactor or discard it as spent fuel. This report considers three different approaches for a burnup monitoring system for pebbles discharged from the reactor core in a pebble bed modular reactor-400: • passive gamma spectrometry measurement, • passive neutron coincidence measurement, and • active neutron counter based on the differential die-away technique. Conceptual designs have been created for each of these detectors, and preliminary analysis has been performed using Monte Carlo N-Particle and Oak Ridge Isotope Generation code simulations. The advantages and practical limitations (e.g., high radiation background) of each system were identified. Simulations suggest that each of the three measurement techniques can be successfully employed to distinguish between pebbles based on their number of passes through the core and to quantify the burnup of pebbles.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reinforcement learning for block decomposition of planar CAD models

Abstract The problem of hexahedral mesh generation of general CAD models has vexed researchers for over 3 decades and analysts often spend more than 50% of the design-analysis cycle time decomposing complex models into simpler blocks meshable by existing techniques. The decomposed blocks are required for generating good quality meshes (tilings of quadrilaterals or hexahedra) suitable for numerical simulations of physical systems governed by conservation laws. We present a novel AI-assisted method for decomposing (segmenting) planar CAD (computer-aided design) models into well shaped rectangular blocks. Even though the simple examples presented here can also be meshed using many conventional methods, we believe this work is proof-of-principle of a AI-based decomposition method that can eventually be generalized to complex 2D and 3D CAD models. Our method uses reinforcement learning to train an agent to perform a series of optimal cuts on the CAD model that result in a good quality block decomposition. We show that the agent quickly learns an effective strategy for picking the location and direction of the cuts and maximizing its rewards. This paper is the first successful demonstration of an agent autonomously learning how to perform this block decomposition task effectively, thereby holding the promise of a viable method to automate this challenging process for more complex cases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mission-driven design methodology for optical systems

Disclosed are devices, systems and methods for a mission-driven design framework for optical systems. An exemplary method for improving the design of an optical system includes receive a first plurality of parameters indicative of performance requirements of the optical system, receive a second plurality of parameters representative of characteristics of one or more components in the optical system, generate a mathematical representation that combines the first plurality of parameters and the second plurality of parameters, perform a sensitivity analysis to obtain a ranking of parameters from the first plurality of parameters and the second plurality of parameters, select, based on the ranking of the parameters, at least one parameter that produces a largest change in the mathematical representation, and produce a constraint file comprising the at least one parameter for ingestion by a design tool to enable the design of the optical system.

Higbee, Shawn D.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integrated Systems-to-Atoms (S2A) Framework for Designing Resilient and Efficient Hydrogen Infrastructure Solutions

The success of a future clean hydrogen infrastructure will depend on technology performance, operating conditions, and system configuration, which will be integrated to meet specific end-use requirements. We introduce a Systems-to-Atoms framework to cosimulate material, device, and system design for clean hydrogen storage and transport. Here we present a demonstration scenario in which hydrogen is distributed using a liquid organic hydrogen carrier to 700 bar refueling stations. Cross-scale analysis on hydrogen release at the refueling station reveals that while a high reaction pressure (up to 100 bar) may not enhance the catalyst performance, it can lead to system-level cost savings (up to 5% of total refueling station cost) due to savings in downstream gas compression. Further, a typically low-performing dehydrogenation catalyst material (e.g., copper) may be preferred over a high-performing catalyst (e.g., palladium) at different operating conditions when considering overall system affordability and supply chain resilience.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2023

Findings from Design and Operation of Connected Neighborhoods

Distributed energy resources and load management are an important emerging part of smart grids. Concurrent management of homeowner preferences and utility objectives requires an intelligent negotiation strategy supported by physical infrastructure that learns, optimizes, and controls the system. While there is a wide body of research related to modelling and simulation of distributed resources, relatively little is known about their practical feasibility. One of the first attempts to address this knowledge gap was through a 62-house connected neighborhood in Alabama. This study makes one more step in advancing this knowledge through a 46-townhome demonstration neighborhood located in Atlanta, GA. It reports hardware design, system architecture, and the results from the summer experimental work. The findings are discussed in the context of earlier experience, and analysis is expanded to areas which were not the focus of earlier research.

Tsybina, Eve↗

DOE OSTI2021

FasTensor (FT) v0.0.1

The FasTensor implements the native array data programming mode namely SLOPE for modern data analysis tasks. It is designed to work in parallel on supercomputer and can handle terabyte data analysis tasks. It is thousand times faster than other data analysis systems such as Apache Spark and 38% faster than TensorFlow in dealing with large scale scientific data analysis. It has wide applications in image data analysis and mesh data analysis tasks in physical simulations and other fields.

Wu, Kesheng↗

DOE OSTI2020

Brief Update on Advancements by Commercial Vendors/Options for Feeding and Pumping Biomass Slurries for Hydrothermal Liquefaction

In 2011, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), working as a partner in the National Advanced Biofuels Consortium, issued a report assessing the viable industrial feed system and pump options for a 2000 dry metric tons per day production-scale hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) plant (Berglin et al. 2012). This report was issued as PNNL-21981, Review and Assessment of Commercial Vendors/Options for Feeding and Pumping Biomass Slurries for Hydrothermal Liquefaction, and will be referred to as “Pump Survey” for reference. It had the following scope: • Identify relevant applications and industries operating at comparable scales • Interact with commercial vendors and pursue integration between vendors • Take advantage of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) technology • Supply and support vendor needs for biomass feedstock rheology characterization • Provide vendors with process requirements to support selection of conceptual design for feedstock handing and pump system • Obtain cost data to the extent possible from equipment vendors to support the technical economic analysis (TEA) • Identify issues associated scale-up. The current document represents an update to the prior report in order to: 1. Identify advancements in vendor-reported technologies 2. List reports of new experience or trials with biomass pumping applications 3. Determine if technology/application gaps identified in the prior report have been filled 4. Capture ideas on future research.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Design and Characterization of a Lens-Coupled System for Dynamic X-Ray Diffraction

X-ray diffraction (XRD) is a necessary technique for understanding states of materials under static and dynamic loading conditions. The higher-pressure Equation of State (EOS) of many materials can only be explored via shock or ramp compression at temperatures and pressures of interest. While static XRD work has yielded EOS measurements in the 100 - 200 GPa regime, dynamic X-ray diffraction (DXRD) can explore EOS phases in the TPa regime, which closely resembles inner-core planetary conditions. DXRD hinges on the ability to measure the exact phase or phase change of a material while under dynamic loading conditions. Macroscopic diagnostic systems (e.g. velocimetry and pyrometry) can infer a phase change but not identify the specific phase entered by a material. While microscopic (atomic-level) diagnostic systems (e.g. DXRD) have been designed and implemented in Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Laboratories complex, the unique nature of Sandia National Laboratories’ Pulsed Power Facility (Z Machine) prohibits the use of such devices. The destructive nature of Z experiments presents a challenge to data capture and retrieval. Furthermore there are electromagnetic interference, X-ray background, and mechanical constraints to consider. Thus, a multi-part X-ray diagnostic for use on the Z Machine and Z-Beamlet Laser system has been designed and analyzed. Portions of this new DYnamic SCintillator Optic (DYSCO) have been built, tested and fielded. A data analysis software has been written. Finally, the radiance profile of the DYSCO’s scintillator has been characterized through experiments performed at the University of Arizona.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

National Security Programs - Cyber: MMAREJBLIGE – Modular Multi Agent Grid Emulation for Joined Breakdowns in Linked Generative Emulations - 23-0644

Modular Multi Agent Grid Emulations for Joined Breakdowns in Linked Generative Emulations (MMAREJBLIGE) introduces an agent-based modeling framework into real-time cyber-physical emulation to achieve a context-aware environment that introduces operator/attacker/external-condition variability to improve emulation fidelity and testing rigor. We detail our agent framework design, internal communication via message passing, and time synchronization, as well as the individual components of the system. We include a brief analysis of several scenarios run on a real-time, hardware-in-the-loop, Industrial Control Systems (ICS) test-bed which include normal operation, physical disruption, disruption with mitigation, and disruption with mitigation during a cyber denial-of-service (DOS) attack.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Digital Droplet PCR and Mesocosm-Based Methods to Evaluate Biocontainment Strategies in a Native Soil Ecosystem

Genetically modified industrial production microbes and their associated bioproducts have emerged as an integral component of a sustainable bioeconomy. However, the rapid development of these innovative technologies raises biosecurity concerns, namely, the risk of environmental escape. Thus, the realization of a bioeconomy hinges not only on the development and deployment of microbial production hosts, but also on the development of secure biosystems and biocontainment designs. Current laboratory-based biocontainment testing systems do not accurately reflect the complexities found in natural environments, necessitating an environmentally relevant analysis pipeline that allows for the detection of rare escapees within a complex soil microbiome and differentiation between closely related strains. To this end, we have developed an approach that utilizes soil mesocosms and integrated digital droplet PCR (ddPCR) system to evaluate the efficacy of novel biocontainment strategies. We demonstrate the utility of this approach by modeling contamination with industrial microbial chasses versus their biocontained counterparts. Here we demonstrate the broad utility of this system by highlighting findings from strains of Saccharomyces cerevisiae that are contained with an inducible toxin anti-toxin system, strains of Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 contained via gene knockout or toxin anti-toxin system, and strains of Escherichia coli that are contained via genomic recoding. We also show that ddPCR can be used to detect gene copies from E. coli equal to those counted by traditional spot plating assays. The resultant data demonstrates that this system has broad utility across diverse microbial chassis and biocontainment strategies and enables researchers to track the fate of our contaminating microbe with high sensitivity in the soil. The findings presented here support the use of this mesocosm-based approach to assess the environmental impact of industrial microbes and to validate biocontainment strategies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗