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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 865 records · Page 48
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Effect of alloying on intrinsic ductility in WTaCrV high entropy alloys

Tungsten (W) exhibits desirable properties for extreme applications, such as the divertor in magnetic fusion reactors, but its practicality remains limited due to poor formability and insufficient irradiation resistance. In this work, we study the intrinsic ductility of body-centered cubic WTaCrV based high entropy alloys (HEAs), which are known to exhibit excellent irradiation resistance. The ductility evaluations are carried out using a criterion based on the competition between the critical stress intensity factors for emission (K Ie ) and cleavage (K Ic ) in the {110} slip planes and {110} crack planes, which are evaluated within the linear elastic fracture mechanics framework and computed using density functional theory. The results suggest that increasing the alloying concentrations of V and reducing the concentrations of W can significantly improve the ductility in these HEAs. The elastic anisotropy for these HEAs is analyzed using the Zener anisotropy ratio and its correlation with the concentration of W in the alloys is studied. Results indicate that these alloys tend to be fairly isotropic independently from the concentration of W in them. The computed data for the elastic constants of these HEAs is also compared against available experimental data. The results are in good agreement, validating the robustness and accuracy of the computational methods. Multiple phenomenological ductility metrics were also computed and analyzed against the analytical model. Some metrics, mainly the surrogate D parameter, show a good correlation with the Rice model. The potential of these empirical metrics to serve as surrogate screening models for optimizing the compositional space is also discussed.

Anisotropy↗
DOE OSTI2025

GenAI4UQ: A software for forward and inverse uncertainty quantification using conditional generative AI

We introduce GenAI4UQ, a software package for forward and inverse uncertainty quantification in model calibration, parameter estimation, and ensemble forecasting. GenAI4UQ leverages a generative AI-based conditional modeling framework to address limitations of traditional inverse modeling techniques, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. By replacing computationally intensive iterative processes with a direct, learned mapping, GenAI4UQ enables efficient calibration of input parameters and generation of predictions directly from observations. The software supports rapid ensemble forecasting with robust uncertainty quantification while maintaining computational and storage efficiency. Built-in auto-tuning of hyperparameters simplifies model training, ensuring accessibility for users with varying expertise. Its versatile conditional generative framework is applicable across diverse scientific domains. While GenAI4UQ offers significant advantages in flexibility and efficiency, users should interpret its uncertainty estimates with caution in data-sparse scenarios, as the model may overestimate uncertainty—an effect common to all surrogate-based approaches including MCMC with surrogate models. Despite this, GenAI4UQ transforms inverse modeling by providing a fast, reliable, and user-friendly solution. It empowers researchers and practitioners to quickly estimate parameter distributions and generate model predictions for new observations, facilitating efficient decision-making and advancing the state of uncertainty quantification in computational modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Calibration of cloud and aerosol related parameters for solar irradiance forecasts in WRF-solar

Model parameters are a major source of uncertainty in numerical weather prediction. Recently, the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Solar extensions (WRF-Solar) has been upgraded by enhancing the treatment of sub-grid scale cloud and aerosols with augmentations of a sub-grid scale cloud scheme (CLD3) and an upgraded aerosol-aware Thompson-Eidhammer scheme (TE14). However, the value of model parameters associated with these parameterizations are assigned based on limited measurements or theoretical calculations. Calibrating the most sensitive parameters has the potential to improve solar irradiance predictions. Here, we adopted a multiobjective surrogate-based optimization (SBO) framework to calibrate nine parameters used in CLD3 and TE14 that lead to the largest sensitivity in simulated irradiance. The normalized mean-absolute-error (NMAE) of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) are minimized by calibrating WRF-Solar over two regions including the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and Central California, in order to focus on parameter calibration under cloudy conditions with different aerosol loading. The results show that generalized linear model (GLM)-based surrogate models approximate physical models well, particularly when the third order and three-way interaction terms are considered. The SBO framework efficiently searches the parameter space for optimal solutions with less computational costs than directly calibrating the physical model. We first calibrate CLD3 parameters over the less-polluted SGP region. Optimized CLD3 parameters alone result in NMAE reduction by 14% for the site-mean and up to 33% for individual cases over the SGP region. With further calibration of TE14 parameters over the Central California during active fire periods, the optimized parameters lead to over 20% reductions of NMAE. Our investigation reveals, however, that optimizing TE14 has a limited impact on irradiance simulations under less-polluted conditions in the SGP.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Towards fast and accurate predictions of radio frequency power deposition and current profile via data-driven modelling: applications to lower hybrid current drive

Three machine learning techniques (multilayer perceptron, random forest and Gaussian process) provide fast surrogate models for lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) simulations. A single GENRAY/CQL3D simulation without radial diffusion of fast electrons requires several minutes of wall-clock time to complete, which is acceptable for many purposes, but too slow for integrated modelling and real-time control applications. The machine learning models use a database of more than 16 000 GENRAY/CQL3D simulations for training, validation and testing. Latin hypercube sampling methods ensure that the database covers the range of nine input parameters ( $n_{e0}$ , $T_{e0}$ , $I_p$ , $B_t$ , $R_0$ , $n_{\|}$ , $Z_{{\rm eff}}$ , $V_{{\rm loop}}$ and $P_{{\rm LHCD}}$ ) with sufficient density in all regions of parameter space. The surrogate models reduce the inference time from minutes to $\sim$ ms with high accuracy across the input parameter space.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

How does ion temperature gradient turbulence depend on magnetic geometry? Insights from data and machine learning

Magnetic geometry has a significant effect on the level of turbulent transport in fusion plasmas. Here, we model and analyse this dependence using multiple machine learning methods and a dataset of >200 000 nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations of ion-temperature-gradient turbulence in diverse non-axisymmetric geometries. The dataset is generated using a large collection of both optimised and randomly generated stellarator equilibria. At fixed gradients and other input parameters, the turbulent heat flux varies between geometries by several orders of magnitude. Trends are apparent among the configurations with particularly high or particularly low heat flux. Regression and classification techniques from machine learning are then applied to extract patterns in the dataset. Due to a symmetry of the gyrokinetic equation, the heat flux and regressions thereof should be invariant to translations of the raw features in the parallel coordinate, similar to translation invariance in computer vision applications. Multiple regression models including convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and decision trees can achieve reasonable predictive power for the heat flux in held-out test configurations, with highest accuracy for the CNNs. Using Spearman correlation, sequential feature selection and Shapley values to measure feature importance, it is consistently found that the most important geometric lever on the heat flux is the flux surface compression in regions of bad curvature. The second most important geometric feature relates to the magnitude of geodesic curvature. These two features align remarkably with surrogates that have been proposed based on theory, while the methods here allow a natural extension to more features for increased accuracy. The dataset, released with this publication, may also be used to test other proposed surrogates, and we find that many previously published proxies do correlate well with both the heat flux and stability boundary.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of a New Chemical Mechanism for 2-Amino-2-methyl-1-propanol in a Reactive Environment from CSIRO Smog Chamber Experiments

Amines are considered as an emerging class of atmospheric pollutants that are of great importance to atmospheric chemistry and new particle formation. As a typical amine, 2-amino-2-methyl-1-propanol (AMP) is one of the proposed solvents for capturing CO 2 from flue gas streams in amine-based post-combustion CO 2 capture plants, and it is expected to result in AMP emission and secondary products formation in the atmosphere. However, the current knowledge of its atmospheric chemistry and kinetics is poorly understood, particularly in a reactive environment. As such, in this work we used the CSIRO smog chamber to study the photo-oxidation of AMP in the presence of VOCs–NOx surrogate mixtures over a range of initial amine concentrations. O 3 formation was significantly inhibited when AMP was added to the surrogate VOCs–NOx mixtures, implying that AMP could alter known atmospheric chemical reaction pathways and the prevailing reactivity. Simultaneously, a large amount of AMP-derived secondary aerosol was formed, with a considerably high aerosol mass yield (i.e. ratio of aerosol formed to reacted AMP) of 1.06±0.20. Based on updated knowledge of its kinetics, oxidation pathways and product yields, we have developed a new mechanism (designated as CSIAMP-19) and integrated into the Carbon Bond 6 (CB6) chemical mechanism, and evaluated it against available smog chamber data. Compared with the existing AMP mechanism (designated as CarterAMP-08), the modified CB6 with CSIAMP-19 mechanism improves prediction against AMP–VOCs–NOx experiments across a range of initial AMP concentrations, within ±10% model error for gross ozone production. Our results contribute to scientific understanding of AMP photochemistry and to the development of the chemical mechanism of other amines. The updated AMP chemical reactions scheme can be further embedded into the chemical transport model for regional modelling scenarios where AMP-related emissions are of concern.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Plutonium and Cerium Perrhenate/Pertechnetate Coordination Polymers and Frameworks

Spent nuclear fuel (SNF) contains transuranic and lanthanide species, which are sometimes recovered and repurposed. One particularly problematic fission product, 99 TcO 4 – , hampers this recovery via coextraction with high valence metals, perhaps by complexation during aqueous reprocessing of SNF. There is limited molecular-level knowledge concerning the coordination chemistry between TcO 4 – or its well-known surrogate ReO 4 – and transuranic/lanthanide species. In the current study, we investigated the coordination of ReO 4 – /TcO 4 – with plutonium and cerium cations by structural and chemical characterization of a series of isolated extended solids. In this study, Ce represents both trivalent lanthanides and is considered a surrogate for Pu, respectively, in its common trivalent and tetravalent oxidation states. The structural elucidation of the seven isolated crystalline solids revealed that ReO 4 – /TcO 4 – directly connects to Pu IV , Pu VI O 2 2 + , Ce III , and Ce IV in the terminal and bridging coordination modes, leading to 1-, 2-, and 3-dimensional frameworks. For example, ReO 4 – coordination to Pu(IV) formed a 1D chain or 2D framework, isostructural with previously isolated Th(IV) compounds. However, Pu VI O 2 2 + alternating with ReO 4 – led to a unique 1D chain, different from the prior-reported U(VI)/Np(VI)-ReO 4 – /TcO 4 – structures. Coordination of ReO 4 – /TcO 4 – with Ce(III) promotes the assembly of 3D frameworks. Finally, attempted synthesis of a Ce(IV)-ReO 4 – compound resulted in a 2D framework with a mixed-valence Ce III/IV . The highly acidic reaction conditions supported the reduction of both Ce IV and Tc VII , challenging isolation of compounds featuring these species. Only one TcO 4 -containing structure was obtained in this study (Ce III –TcO 4 3D framework), vs the six total Ce/Pu-ReO 4 compounds. Furthermore, our three Pu-ReO 4 crystal structures are the first reported and translated to atomic-level information about Pu-TcO 4 coordination in nuclear fuel reprocessing scenarios, in addition to broadening our knowledge of bonding trends in the early, high-valence actinides.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2024

Force-Free Identification of Minimum-Energy Pathways and Transition States for Stochastic Electronic Structure Theories

Here, the accurate mapping of potential energy surfaces (PESs) is crucial to our understanding of the numerous physical and chemical processes mediated by atomic rearrangements, such as conformational changes and chemical reactions, and the thermodynamic and kinetic feasibility of these processes. Stochastic electronic structure theories, e.g., Quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) methods, enable highly accurate total energy calculations that in principle can be used to construct the PES. However, their stochastic nature poses a challenge to the computation and use of forces and Hessians, which are typically required in algorithms for minimum-energy pathway (MEP) and transition state (TS) identification, such as the nudged elastic band (NEB) algorithm and its climbing image formulation. Here, we present strategies that utilize the surrogate Hessian line-search method, previously developed for QMC structural optimization, to efficiently identify MEP and TS structures without requiring force calculations at the level of the stochastic electronic structure theory. By modifying the surrogate Hessian algorithm to operate in path-orthogonal subspaces and at saddle points, we show that it is possible to identify MEPs and TSs by using a force-free QMC approach. We demonstrate these strategies via two examples, the inversion of the ammonia (NH 3 ) molecule and the nucleophilic substitution (S N 2) reaction F – + CH 3 F → FCH 3 + F – . We validate our results using Density Functional Theory (DFT)- and Coupled Cluster (CCSD, CCSD(T))-based NEB calculations. We then introduce a hybrid DFT-QMC approach to compute thermodynamic and kinetic quantities, free energy differences, rate constants, and equilibrium constants that incorporates stochastically optimized structures and their energies, and show that this scheme improves upon DFT accuracy. Our methods generalize straightforwardly to other systems and other high-accuracy theories that similarly face challenges computing energy gradients, paving the way for highly accurate PES mapping, transition state determination, and thermodynamic and kinetic calculations at significantly reduced computational expense.

Iyer, Gopal R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

OH Roaming during the Ozonolysis of α-Pinene: A New Route to Highly Oxygenated Molecules?

The formation of low-volatility organic compounds in the ozonolysis of α-pinene, the dominant atmospheric monoterpene, provides an important route to aerosol formation. Here, in this work, we consider a previously unexplored set of pathways for the formation of highly oxygenated molecules in α-pinene ozonolysis. Pioneering, direct experimental observations of Lester and co-workers have demonstrated a significant production of hydroxycarbonyl products in the dissociation of Criegee intermediates. Theoretical analyses indicate that this production arises from OH roaming-induced pathways during the OO fission of the vinylhydroperoxides (VHPs), which in turn come from internal H transfers in the Criegee intermediates. Ab initio kinetics computations are used here to explore the OH roaming-induced channels that arise from the ozonolysis of α-pinene. For computational reasons, the calculations consider a surrogate for α-pinene, where two spectator methyl groups are replaced with H atoms. Multireference electronic structure calculations are used to illustrate a variety of energetically accessible OH roaming pathways for the four VHPs arising from the ozonolysis of this α-pinene surrogate. Ab initio transition-state theory-based master equation calculations indicate that for the dissociation of stabilized VHPs, these OH roaming pathways are kinetically significant with a branching that generally increases from ~20% at room temperature up to ~70% at lower temperatures representative of the troposphere. For one of the VHPs, this branching already exceeds 60% at room temperature. For the overall ozonolysis process, these branching ratios would be greatly reduced by a limited branching to the stabilized VHP, although there would also be some modest roaming fraction for the nonthermal VHP dissociation process. The strong exothermicities of the roaming-induced isomerizations/additions and abstractions suggest new routes to fission of the cyclobutane rings. Such ring fissions would facilitate further autoxidation reactions, thereby providing a new route for producing highly oxygenated nonvolatile precursors to aerosol formation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Quantum Monte Carlo Study of the Structural, Energetic, and Magnetic Properties of Two-Dimensional H and T Phase VSe 2

Previous works have controversially claimed near-room-temperature ferromagnetism in two-dimensional (2D) VSe 2 , with conflicting results throughout the literature. These discrepancies in magnetic properties between both phases (T and H) of 2D VSe 2 are most likely due to the structural parameters being coupled to the magnetic properties. Specifically, both phases have a close lattice match and similar total energies, which makes it difficult to determine which phase is being observed experimentally. Here, in this study, we used a combination of density functional theory, highly accurate diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC), and a surrogate Hessian line-search optimization technique to resolve the previously reported discrepancy in structural parameters and relative phase stability. With DMC accuracy, we determined the free-standing geometry of both phases and constructed a phase diagram. Our findings demonstrate the successes of the DMC method coupled with the surrogate Hessian structural optimization technique when applied to a 2D magnetic system.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Efficient Methods for Determining Flory–Huggins χ Parameters in Multicomponent Polymer Formulations

Polymer formulations are essential in diverse applications including personal care products, coatings, paints, adhesives, and plastic materials. Designing these formulations requires navigating large, complex design spaces, where phase and self-assembly behavior critically impact performance. The Flory–Huggins χ parameter, which quantifies segmental miscibility, is widely used to parametrize the excess free energy of mixing in formulation models. In this work, we introduce two data-efficient, top-down methods for estimating χ parameters using the Random Phase Approximation (RPA): (i) Boundary Nonlinear Regression (Boundary-NLR), which fits theoretical spinodal boundaries to experimental phase boundaries, and (ii) Surrogate Model Inverse Parameter Estimation (SMIPE), which uses a Gaussian Process Classifier to fit sparse phase maps via a surrogate model. Both methods allow rapid parametrization of polymer field-theoretic models without the need for additional experiments. We evaluate these approaches on data sets involving polymer–solvent–nonsolvent ternary mixtures and block copolymer–solvent systems, demonstrating their robustness to experimental noise and their relevance for real-world formulation design.

copolymers↗
DOE OSTI2020

Poly(lactic- co -glycolic acid) Nanoparticles as Delivery Systems for the Improved Administration of Radiotherapeutic Anticancer Agents

This letter reports the development of poly(lactic- co -glycolic acid) (PLGA) nanoparticles (NPs) as delivery systems that could potentially encapsulate and improve the administration of radiotherapeutic anticancer agents. Different metal ions (Ba, Gd, and Ce) were used as surrogates of α-emitting radionuclides ( 223 Ra, 225 Ac, and 227 Th), and their encapsulation within the PLGA NPs ( D h < 300 nm) was evaluated. The initial concentration of metal ions, the metal salt (nitrate vs chloride), and the presence of chelators influenced the concentration of surrogate ions within the PLGA NPs. This letter shows the potential of PLGA NPs to encapsulate radionuclides, particularly α-emitters, for their application in nuclear medicine.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimization of Desalination Systems with Detailed Water Chemistry through Integration of Reaktoro in WaterTAP

Chemistry predictions are critical for an accurate estimation of performance and costs in desalination process models, which allows for the estimation of the value of new technologies and the viability of treating new water sources. Herein, we present how an implicit function formulation can be used to integrate the chemical modeling package, Reaktoro, into the techno-economic assessment and modeling platform, WaterTAP. This approach resolves the critical issues of integrating large-scale thermodynamic models and databases into equation-oriented process models while allowing more flexibility relative to previously presented surrogate-based methods. We describe how this integration into Pyomo and WaterTAP models is implemented and used through the open-source package Reaktoro-PSE . We first validate this integration approach by performing optimization on a previously presented desalination treatment train with softening and acid addition as the pretreatment steps. Then, to demonstrate the value of this approach, we extend the cost-optimization problem to include the simultaneous addition of lime and soda ash for softening, and HCl and H 2 SO 4 in the acidification steps. Finally, we were able to confirm the previously established results that were obtained by using surrogate models and demonstrate that the implicit function approach enables exploration of different feedwater compositions and a larger number of chemicals and their combinations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Conavigation: Dynamic Designing of the Material Digital Twins via Active Learning

Scientific advancement is universally based on the dynamic interplay between theoretical insights, modeling, and experimental discoveries. However, this feedback loop is often slow, including delayed community interactions and the gradual integration of experimental data into theoretical frameworks. This challenge is particularly exacerbated in domains dealing with high-dimensional object spaces, such as molecules and complex microstructures. Hence, the integration of theory within automated and autonomous experimental setups, or theory in the loop-automated experiment, is emerging as a crucial objective for accelerating scientific research. The critical aspect is to use not only theory but also on-the-fly theory updates during the experiment. Furthermore, we introduce a method for integrating theory into the loop through Bayesian conavigation of theoretical model space and experimentation. Our approach leverages the concurrent development of surrogate models for both simulation and experimental domains at the rates determined by latencies and costs of experiments and computation, alongside the adjustment of control parameters within theoretical models to minimize epistemic uncertainty over the experimental object spaces. This methodology facilitates the creation of digital twins of material structures, encompassing both the surrogate model of behavior that includes the correlative part and the theoretical model itself. While being demonstrated here within the context of functional responses in ferroelectric materials, our approach holds promise for broader applications, such as the exploration of optical properties in nanoclusters, microstructure-dependent properties in complex materials, and properties of molecular systems.

Microscopy↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep Learning for Simultaneous Inference of Hydraulic and Transport Properties

Abstract Identification of a heterogeneous conductivity field and reconstruction of a contaminant release history are key aspects of subsurface remediation. These two goals are achieved by combining model predictions with sparse and noisy hydraulic head and concentration measurements. Solution of this inverse problem is notoriously difficult due to, in part, high dimensionality of the parameter space and high computational cost of repeated forward solves. We use a convolutional adversarial autoencoder (CAAE) to parameterize a heterogeneous non‐Gaussian conductivity field via a low‐dimensional latent representation. A three‐dimensional dense convolutional encoder‐decoder (DenseED) network serves as a forward surrogate of the flow and transport model. The CAAE‐DenseED surrogate is fed into the ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ESMDA) algorithm to sample from the Bayesian posterior distribution of the unknown parameters, forming a CAAE‐DenseED‐ESMDA inversion framework. The resulting CAAE‐DenseED‐ESMDA inversion strategy is used to identify a three‐dimensional contaminant source and conductivity field. A comparison of the inversion results from CAAE‐ESMDA with physical flow and transport simulator and from CAAE‐DenseED‐ESMDA shows that the latter yields accurate reconstruction results at the fraction of the computational cost of the former.

Zhou, Zitong↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Decision-Relevant Factor-Fixing Framework: Application to Uncertainty Analysis of a High-Dimensional Water Quality Model

Factor Fixing (FF) is a common method for reducing the number of model parameters to lower computational cost. FF typically starts with distinguishing the insensitive parameters from the sensitive and pursues uncertainty quantification (UQ) on the resulting reduced-order model, fixing each insensitive parameter at a fixed value. There is a need, however, to expand such a common approach to consider the effects of decision choices in the FF-UQ procedure on metrics of interest. Therefore, to guide the use of FF and increase confidence in the resulting dimension-reduced model, we propose a new adaptive framework consisting of four principles: (a) re-parameterize the model first to reduce obvious non-identifiable parameter combinations, (b) focus on decision relevance especially with respect to errors in quantities of interest (QoI), (c) conduct adaptive evaluation and robustness assessment of errors in the QoI across FF choices as sample size increases, and (d) reconsider whether fixing is warranted. The framework is demonstrated on a spatially-distributed water quality model. The error in estimates of QoI caused by FF can be estimated using a Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) surrogate model. Built with 70 model runs, the surrogate is computationally inexpensive to evaluate and can provide global sensitivity indices for free. For the selected catchment, just two factors may provide an acceptably accurate estimate of model uncertainty in the average annual load of Total Suspended Solids (TSS), suggesting that reducing the uncertainty in these two parameters is a priority for future work before undertaking further formal uncertainty quantification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coupled Lake‐Atmosphere‐Land Physics Uncertainties in a Great Lakes Regional Climate Model

Abstract This study develops a surrogate‐based method to assess the uncertainty within a convective permitting integrated modeling system of the Great Lakes region, arising from interacting physics parameterizations across the lake, atmosphere, and land surface. Perturbed physics ensembles of the model during the 2018 summer are used to train a neural network surrogate model to predict lake surface temperature (LST) and near‐surface air temperature (T2m). Average physics uncertainties are determined to be 1.5C for LST and T2m over land, and 1.9C for T2m over lake, but these have significant spatiotemporal variations. We find that atmospheric physics parameterizations alone are the dominant sources of uncertainty (45%–53%), while lake and land parameterizations account for 33% and 38% of the uncertainty of LST and T2m over land respectively. Interactions of atmosphere physics parameterizations with those of the land and lake contribute to an additional 13%–17% of the total variance. LST and T2m over the lake are more uncertain in the deeper northern lakes, particularly during the rapid warming phase that occurs in late spring/early summer. The LST uncertainty increases with sensitivity to the lake model's surface wind stress scheme. T2m over land is more uncertain over forested areas in the north, where it is most sensitive to the land surface model, than the more agricultural land in the south, where it is most sensitive to the atmospheric planetary boundary and surface layer scheme. Uncertainty also increases in the southwest during multiday temperature declines with higher sensitivity to the land surface model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Embedding physics domain knowledge into a Bayesian network enables layer-by-layer process innovation for photovoltaics

Process optimization of photovoltaic devices is a time-intensive, trial-and-error endeavor, which lacks full transparency of the underlying physics and relies on user-imposed constraints that may or may not lead to a global optimum. Herein, we demonstrate that embedding physics domain knowledge into a Bayesian network enables an optimization approach for gallium arsenide (GaAs) solar cells that identifies the root cause(s) of underperformance with layer-by-layer resolution and reveals alternative optimal process windows beyond traditional black-box optimization. Our Bayesian network approach links a key GaAs process variable (growth temperature) to material descriptors (bulk and interface properties, e.g., bulk lifetime, doping, and surface recombination) and device performance parameters (e.g., cell efficiency). For this purpose, we combine a Bayesian inference framework with a neural network surrogate device-physics model that is 100× faster than numerical solvers. With the trained surrogate model and only a small number of experimental samples, our approach reduces significantly the time-consuming intervention and characterization required by the experimentalist. As a demonstration of our method, in only five metal organic chemical vapor depositions, we identify a superior growth temperature profile for the window, bulk, and back surface field layer of a GaAs solar cell, without any secondary measurements, and demonstrate a 6.5% relative AM1.5G efficiency improvement above traditional grid search methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗