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At least 865 records · Page 48

Tropical Intraseasonal Air-Sea Exchanges during the 1997 Pacific Warming

The Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) and associated westerly wind (WW) events account for much of the tropical intraseasonal variability (TISV). The TISV has been suggested as an important stochastic forcing that may be one of the underlying causes for the observed irregularities of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Recent observational studies and theories of interannual to interdecadal-scale variability suggest that ENSO may arise from different mechanisms depending on the basic states. The Pacific warming event of 1997, being associated with a period of strong MJO and WW events, serves as a natural experiment for studying the possible role of TISV in triggering an ENSO event. We have performed a combined statistical and composite analysis of surface WW events based on the assimilated surface wind and sea level pressure for the period of 1980-1993, the SSM/I wind for the period of 1988-1997, and OLR. Results indicates that extratropical forcing contribute significantly to the evolution of MJO and establishment of WW events over the Pacific warm pool. Following the major WW events, there appeared an eastward extension of equatorial warm SST anomalies from the western Pacific warm pool. Such tropical-extratropical interaction is particularly clear in the winter of 96-97 that leads to the recent warming event in 1997/98. From the above discussion, our current study on this subject is based on the hypothesis that 1) there is an enhanced air-sea interaction associated with TISV and the northerly surges from the extratropics in the initial phase of the 97/98 warming event, and 2) the relevant mechanisms are functions of the basic state of the coupled system (in terms of SST distribution and atmospheric mean circulation) that varies at the interannual and interdecadal time scale. We are analyzing the space-time structure of the northerly surges, their association with air-sea fluxes and upper ocean responses during the period of September 1996 to June 1997. The estimate of daily values of latent heat fluxes is based on NSCAT wind, SST, and ECMWF surface air temperature and SSM/I water vapor data (Chou et al. 1997). To understand the relevant mechanisms, we will analyze the origin of the northerly surges in terms of atmospheric instability associated with the extratropical circulation, and the mutual influence between the tropical heating and the extratropical circulation. In this meeting, we will report the analysis addressing the first part of the above hypothesis.

Sui, C.-H.↗

The Earth Observing System (EOS)

The Earth Observing System is a US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) program consisting of a science segment, a data system, and a space segment made up of a series of polar-orbiting and mid-inclination satellites for long-term monitoring of the Earth as an integrated system, including observations of the land surface, biosphere, atmosphere, cryosphere, and oceans. Initially conceived in the mid-late 1980s, it was implemented as a series of large "flagship" missions and smaller focused satellites, often in partnership with instruments and sometimes spacecraft from other nations. In 1984 NASA formed several instrument panels to develop concepts for “facility instruments” that would provide comprehensive support to the scientific and applications’ communities, each with a supporting science team competitively selected via peer-review. An Announcement of Opportunity was released in 1988 and proposals were solicited for three types of proposals: (i) instrument investigations that would include the provision of instrumentation for flight on a polar platform, including non-Earth science payloads requiring polar orbits (PI instruments), (ii) research facility instrument team member and team leader investigations for facility instruments, and (iii) interdisciplinary science investigations to provide data analysis and modeling, preparing to use data acquired from the space platforms. The initial selections made in 1989 included support for 24 instrument investigations, 6 research facility instrument investigations, and 28 interdisciplinary investigations. Although considerable changes were made over the years in the structure and orbital configuration of the various instruments and platforms, a total of 10 different missions were eventually flown, as shown in Fig. 1. These included three multiinstrument flagship platforms known as Terra (launched in 1999), Aqua (launched in 2002), and Aura (launched in 2004), where the Terra mission emphasis was primarily on land processes, Aqua on the hydrological cycle, and Aura on atmospheric chemistry. In addition to these flagship missions the EOS missions included Landsat 7 (land cover classification and change), QuikScat (wind speed and direction over the oceans), Jason-1 (ocean surface topography and sea level), ACRIMSAT (total solar irradiance (TSI)), SAGE III (stratospheric aerosol and ozone levels), ICESat (ice, cloud, and land elevation), and SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment; total and spectral solar irradiance). In addition EOS supported CERES (an Earth radiation budget sensor) and LIS (a lightning sensor), that flew as part of the NASA/JAXA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (1997), and SeaWinds (wind speed and direction), that flew as part of the short-lived ADEOS II (Midori II, 2002) mission of JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency). The EOS contributions are too numerous to present in detail in this article, but can be viewed for convenience as a means of obtaining global measurements (with appropriate characteristics) of the 24 variables and variable groups listed in Table 1. This table was created by the EOS community in the late 1990s as a way to succinctly indicate which instruments on the various EOS platforms were expected to contribute to each of the specified variables in primary (bold), secondary (bold italics), or contributing (roman) roles. All of the science data products produced by these space missions are available without charge throughout the world, and are thus highly valued for their many contributions to applications such as air quality, fires, land cover change, and the state of the oceans, as well as for science and monitoring of the state of the Earth system and its changes over time. These and other international satellites have played a crucial role in understanding and documenting global change, including (i) global surface temperature and atmospheric temperature and water vapor profiles, (ii) glacial retreat, (iii) sea ice extent and change, (iv) solar radiation into and out of the Earth-atmosphere system, (v) atmospheric aerosol and cloud properties, (vi) sources and sinks of

ICESat↗

Vehicle Health Management Communications Requirements for AeroMACS

As the development of standards for the aeronautical mobile airport communications system (AeroMACS) progresses, the process of identifying and quantifying appropriate uses for the system is progressing. In addition to defining important elements of AeroMACS standards, indentifying the systems uses impacts AeroMACS bandwidth requirements. Although an initial 59 MHz spectrum allocation for AeroMACS was established in 2007, the allocation may be inadequate; studies have indicated that 100 MHz or more of spectrum may be required to support airport surface communications. Hence additional spectrum allocations have been proposed. Vehicle health management (VHM) systems, which can produce large volumes of vehicle health data, were not considered in the original bandwidth requirements analyses, and are therefore of interest in supporting proposals for additional AeroMACS spectrum. VHM systems are an emerging development in air vehicle safety, and preliminary estimates of the amount of data that will be produced and transmitted off an aircraft, both in flight and on the ground, have been prepared based on estimates of data produced by on-board vehicle health sensors and initial concepts of data processing approaches. This allowed an initial estimate of VHM data transmission requirements for the airport surface. More recently, vehicle-level systems designed to process and analyze VHM data and draw conclusions on the current state of vehicle health have been undergoing testing and evaluation. These systems make use of vehicle system data that is mostly different from VHM data considered previously for airport surface transmission, and produce processed system outputs that will be also need to be archived, thus generating additional data load for AeroMACS. This paper provides an analysis of airport surface data transmission requirements resulting from the vehicle level reasoning systems, within the context of overall VHM data requirements.

Kerczewski, Robert J.↗

Surface Manipulation on Pt 2.2 Ni(111) Nanocatalysts for Boosting Their ORR Performance in Alkaline Media

We have previously shown that Pt–Ni alloy nano-octahedra with {111} facets exhibit outstanding electrochemical performance in the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) in acidic media when their surfaces are finely tailored at the atomic level. Here, in this investigation, we further refine the surface structure of Pt 2.2 Ni octahedral nanocatalysts to improve ORR performance in a 0.1 M KOH solution using diverse surface manipulation techniques. Through systematic analysis using electrochemical CO stripping, cyclic voltammetry, and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, we examined the surfaces of Pt 2.2 Ni octahedral nanocatalysts pretreated with various methods, including etching in acetic acid or perchloric acid, and subsequent electrochemical activation in an alkaline solution or an acidic solution. Among these treatments, those involving acidic media, particularly electrochemical cycling in acidic electrolytes, demonstrated significantly enhanced ORR activity in 0.1 M KOH. The latter exhibited a mass activity of 2.95 A/mg pt and a specific activity of 8.71 mA/cm 2 at 0.90 V, surpassing state-of-the-art Pt/C by 12-fold and 34-fold, respectively. Furthermore, this identified nanocatalyst displayed robust stability, with negligible activity decay observed after 10,000 cycles. This study suggests that the improved ORR activity can be attributed to the Pt-rich surfaces with well-preserved {111} lattices on the surface-modified Pt–Ni nano-octahedra.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Effect of Pre- and Post-Coat Processing on the Fatigue Life of Coated Disk Alloys

Increasing temperatures in aero gas turbines is resulting in oxidation and hot corrosion attack of turbine disks. Since disks are sensitive to low cycle fatigue (LCF), any environmental attack, and especially hot corrosion pitting, can seriously degrade the life of the disk. Application of metallic coatings is one means of protecting disk alloys from this environmental attack. However, since LCF is sensitive to surface conditions, pre- and post-coat processing can have a significant effect on the LCF life of coated bars. Various pre-and post-coating conditions were examined with a Ni-45wt. Cr coating applied by High-power impulse magnetron sputtering (HiPiMS) to a Ni-based disk alloy. Initial pre-coat surface conditions examined a grit blasted surface. Later pre-coat surface treatments involved wet blasting, two shot peening levels (8N-200 and 16N-200) and a highly polished surface. Post-coat treatments involved two shot peening levels (4N-100 and 16N-200) and a post-coat diffusion anneal in high purity Ar or a low PO2 environment to encourage chromia scale formation. Half of the coated and uncoated bars were LCF tested at 760C without further environmental exposure to evaluate the pre- and post-coat treatments. The second half of samples were either oxidized for 500 hours at 760C in air, hot corroded for 50 hours at 760C in air using a Na2SO4-MgSO4 salt, or subjected to both exposures. Results of the LCF testing and post-test characterization of the various coatings will be presented and future research directions discussed.

LCF Life↗

Mesoscopic structure of mixed type domain walls in multiaxial ferroelectrics

The structure of a 180° uncharged rotational domain wall in a multiaxial ferroelectric film is studied in the framework of an analytical Landau-Ginzburg-Devonshire (LGD) approach. Finite element modeling (FEM) is used to solve numerically the system of the coupled nonlinear Euler-Lagrange (EL) second-order differential equations for two components of polarization. We show that the structure of the domain wall and corresponding metastable or stable phase of the film are controlled by a single parameter—the dimensionless ferroelectric anisotropy factor μ. We fitted the static profile of a solitary domain wall, calculated by FEM, with kinklike functions for polarization components, and extracted the five μ-dependent parameters from the fitting to FEM curves. The surprisingly high accuracy of the fitting results for two polarization components in the entire μ range allows us to conclude that the analytical functions, which are trial functions in the direct variational method, can be treated as a high-accuracy variational solution of the static EL equations. We further derive exact two-component analytical solutions of the static EL equations for a polydomain 180° domain structure in a multiaxial ferroelectric film. Using these, we derive analytical expressions for the system free energy and analyze its dependence on the film thickness and boundary conditions at the film surfaces. The single-domain state is ground for zero polarization derivative at the surfaces, while the polydomain states minimize the system energy for zero polarization at the surfaces. Counterintuitively, the energy of the polydomain states split into two levels, “0” and “1,” for zero polarization at the surfaces, and each of the levels contains a large number of close-energy sublevels, whose structure is characterized by a different number and type of domain walls. The analytical solutions can become a useful tool for Bayesian analysis of high-resolution scanning transmission electron microscopy images in ferroelectric films.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Impact of Gauge-Based Precipitation Corrections on the Skill of SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Estimates

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission provides observations of L-band (1.4 GHz) passive microwave brightness temperature (Tb) observations at a resolution of ~40 km globally every 2-3 days. These observations are routinely assimilated into the NASA Catchment land surface model to generate the Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product, which provides global estimates of surface and root-zone soil moisture, soil temperature, and surface fluxes (among others) at 9-km, 3-hourly resolution with ~2.5-day latency. The Catchment land surface model in the L4_SM algorithm is driven with 0.25°, hourly surface meteorological forcing data from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) "forward-processing" product. Outside of Africa and the high latitudes, the GEOS precipitation forcing is corrected using the Climate Prediction Center Unified (CPCU) gauge-based, 0.5°, daily precipitation product.Soil moisture estimates from the L4_SM product were previously shown to improve over land model-only estimates that do not benefit from the assimilation of Tb observations, thereby demonstrating the value of assimilating SMAP observations for soil moisture estimation. In this presentation, we further isolate the contribution of the gauge-based precipitation corrections to the skill of the L4_SM soil moisture estimates. Specifically, we compare the skill of the L4_SM soil moisture to that of separate model-only and assimilation estimates obtained without the benefit of the gauge-based precipitation corrections.Preliminary results suggest that the soil moisture skill added by the CPCU-based precipitation corrections primarily depends on the quality of the CPCU precipitation product and is greatest in regions where the CPCU gauge network is dense and reliable. Conversely, in regions where the CPCU product is known to be of poor quality, for example in central Australia, the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations provides the most benefit. The presentation will provide an in-depth evaluation of the soil moisture skill of the model-only and assimilation estimates vs. independent in situ and satellite measurements.

Reichle, Rolf↗

Optimizing fluvial flood mitigation strategies: A multi-objective approach for cost-effective and socially-aware infrastructure feasibility analysis

Effective levee planning must balance capital cost, risk reduction, and community priorities. These objectives are rarely optimized together. This study presents a feasibility phase, simulationin-the-loop framework that couples terrain-based flood modeling with a socially aware multiobjective optimizer. Flood risk is measured as Expected Annual Exposed Population (EAEP), obtained by integrating exposure over Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) nodes, mirroring the Hydrologic Engineering Center's Flood Damage Reduction Analysis (HEC-FDA) expected-annual formulation but with people rather than dollars. Exposure per scenario is computed by overlaying binary inundation masks with a population surface at the tract level. Distributional fairness is encoded through a Group Benefit Share (GBS) constraint that requires high-SVI tracts to receive at least a baseline share of annualized benefits. Capital cost is represented by a height-dependent unit-cost model suitable for screening. This study addresses the two-objective problem, minimize cost and expected annual exposure subject to the GBS constraint, using Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) and leveraging Pareto front for feasibility phase decision making. Implemented with terrain-based flood modeling, GeoFlood, for rapid scenario evaluation, the framework is demonstrated in Southeast Texas. The results reveal clear trade-offs among cost, risk, and social benefits and identify non-dominated levee height configurations that satisfy the benefit-share floor. The contributions are a scalable decision support method that operationalizes expected annual population-based risk, embeds enforceable benefit-sharing guarantees, and uses lightweight simulation to explore large design spaces before higher fidelity design stages.

Flood mitigation↗

Remote sensing and statistical analysis of the effects of hurricane María on the forests of Puerto Rico

Widely recognized as one of the worst natural disaster in Puerto Rico's history, hurricane María made landfall on September 20, 2017 in southeast Puerto Rico as a high-end category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale causing widespread destruction, fatalities and forest disturbance. This study focused on hurricane María's effect on Puerto Rico's forests as well as the effect of landform and forest characteristics on observed disturbance patterns. In this work, we used Google Earth Engine (GEE) to assess the severity of forest disturbance using a disturbance metric based on Landsat 8 satellite data composites with pre and post-hurricane María. Forest structure, tree phenology characteristics, and landforms were obtained from satellite data products, including digital elevation model and global forest canopy height. Our analyses showed that forest structure, and characteristics such as forest age and forest type affected patterns of forest disturbance. Among forest types, highest disturbance values were found in sierra palm, transitional, and tall cloud forests; seasonal evergreen forests with coconut palm; and mangrove forests. For landforms, greatest disturbance metrics was found at high elevations, steeper slopes, and windward surfaces. As expected, high levels of disturbance were also found close to the hurricane track, with disturbance less severe as hurricane María moved inland. Results demonstrated that forest and landform characteristics accounted for 34% of the variation in spatial forest spectral disturbance patterns. This study demonstrated an informative regional approach, combining remote sensing with statistical analyses to investigate factors that result in variability in hurricane effects on forest ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Divertor heat flux challenge and mitigation in SPARC

Owing to its high magnetic field, high power, and compact size, the SPARC experiment will operate with divertor conditions at or above those expected in reactor-class tokamaks. Power exhaust at this scale remains one of the key challenges for practical fusion energy. Based on empirical scalings, the peak unmitigated divertor parallel heat flux is projected to be greater than 10 GW m -2 . This is nearly an order of magnitude higher than has been demonstrated to date. Furthermore, the divertor parallel Edge-Localized Mode (ELM) energy fluence projections (~11–34 MJ m -2 ) are comparable with those for ITER. However, the relatively short pulse length (~25 s pulse, with a ~10 s flat top) provides the opportunity to consider mitigation schemes unsuited to long-pulse devices including ITER and reactors. The baseline scenario for SPARC employs a ~1 Hz strike point sweep to spread the heat flux over a large divertor target surface area to keep tile surface temperatures within tolerable levels without the use of active divertor cooling systems. In addition, SPARC operation presents a unique opportunity to study divertor heat exhaust mitigation at reactor-level plasma densities and power fluxes. Not only will SPARC test the limits of current experimental scalings and serve for benchmarking theoretical models in reactor regimes, it is also being designed to enable the assessment of long-legged and X-point target advanced divertor magnetic configurations. Experimental results from SPARC will be crucial to reducing risk for a fusion pilot plant divertor design.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Effect of Composition and Local Environment on CO 2 Adsorption on Nickel and Magnesium Oxide Solid Solutions

CO 2 adsorption energies on the (100) surfaces of a nickel oxide doped with Mg, magnesium oxide doped with Ni, and their 50:50 solid solution were calculated using density functional theory. The composition and atomic arrangement of the adsorption site was varied to understand how the local environment affects CO 2 adsorption and the basicity of the surfaces at the atomic level. The dispersive and electronic contributions to the adsorption energies were quantified, and the results indicate that the variation of the adsorption energy with adsorption site configuration and metal composition is dominated by electronic interactions. Interestingly, for magnesium oxide doped with nickel, a single substitution can create stronger CO 2 binding sites, which implies stronger basic sites, even though nickel oxide is less basic than magnesium oxide. The effect of double substitution at the binding site can be reasonably approximated by summing the effects of single substitutions. Furthermore, this work provides guidance for the preparation of metal oxides with tailored Lewis basicity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Thiol–ene Click Chemistry Incorporates Hydroxyl Functionality on Polycyclooctene to Tune Properties

Polyolefins compose the majority of plastic waste, but conventional mechanical recycling degrades their properties, thereby reducing their value. We report the functionalization of a model for dehydrogenated polyethylene, polycyclooctene (PCOE), with thiol–ene click chemistry to install pendant hydroxyl ethyl thioethers. Functionalization of PCOE using mercaptoethanol via thiol–ene click chemistry yielded functionalization between 1.4 and 22.9% based on ethylene monomeric units. Reactions were well-controlled by varying the reagent stoichiometry and reaction time. Crystallinity and melting temperature decreased, and glass transition temperature increased with greater functionalization. Contact angle measurements reveal an increase in surface polarity with functionalization. Here, comparisons with poly(ethylene-co-vinyl alcohol) (EVOH) show comparable surface polarity at similar levels of alcohol functionalization. At 12% functionalization, the ultimate shear stress (USS) of functionalized PCOE in an adhesive configuration is 4.10 ± 0.48 MPa, comparable to EVOH. At >12% functionalization, the failure mode changed from adhesive to mixed adhesive–cohesive, and the USS decreased.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Climate induced microbiome alterations increase cadmium bioavailability in agricultural soils with pH below 7

Climate change and metals independently stress soil microbiomes, but their combined effects remain unresolved. Here we show that future climate affects soil cadmium through altered soil microbiome and nutrient cycles, with soil pH as critical factor. In soils with pH<7 and during summer temperatures, future climate increased porewater cadmium, shifting total and potentially active taxonomic microbiome structures. Microbial ammonium oxidation released protons liberating cadmium through cation exchange from mineral surfaces. When porewater cadmium levels became toxic to non-cadmium-tolerant bacteria, microbial activity, and nutrient cycling decreased, reducing carbon and nitrogen emissions. In contrast, pH>7 soil show no climate impacts on cadmium mobilization, though imprints on microbiome structure were apparent. Subsequent nutrient cycling increased under future climate, stimulating soil respiration and nitrous oxide release. These findings underscore complex interactions between climate change and soil contaminants affecting the soil microbiome and its activity and highlights potential impacts on crop production, groundwater quality, and climate feedback.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Resonant torque differential magnetometry with high frequency quartz oscillators

Sensitive magnetometry has been a powerful probe for investigating quantum materials. Extreme conditions, such as sub-kelvin cryogenic temperatures and ultrahigh magnetic fields, demand further durability for sensitive magnetometry. However, significant mechanical vibrations and rapid magnetic field changes give enormous challenges to conventional magnetometry. Here, this article presents a possible solution to this problem by developing a new magnetometry technique using high-frequency quartz oscillators. The technique takes advantage of the symmetry and geometry of mechanical vibration configurations of standard commercially available MHz quartz oscillators, and the setup keeps the high quality factor resonance with the sample mounted on the oscillator. We further demonstrate the sensitivity of the technique using bismuth single crystals and a Fe 0.25 TaS 2 ferromagnetic material. Quantum oscillations are observed in the magnetometry response below 1 T, and the detected oscillation frequency is shown to come from the electron pockets of the bismuth.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Edge turbulence measurements in L-mode and I-mode at ASDEX Upgrade

The I-mode confinement regime is promising for future reactor operation due to high energy confinement without high particle confinement. However, the role of edge turbulence in creating I-mode's beneficial transport properties is still unknown. New measurements of edge turbulence (ρpol=0.9−1.0) in L-modes and I-modes at low and high densities at ASDEX Upgrade are presented in this paper. A high radial resolution correlation electron cyclotron emission radiometer measures the broadband turbulence throughout the L-mode and I-mode edge and pedestal. The weakly coherent mode (WCM) is measured in both L-mode and I-mode near the last closed flux surface with Te fluctuation levels of 2.3%–4.2%, with a frequency shift between the two phases related to a deeper Er well in I-mode. An neTe phase diagnostic captures a change of the WCM neTe phase between L-mode and I-mode from −171° to −143°. The thermal He beam diagnostic measures a WCM wavenumber range of −0.5 to −1.0 cm−1. A low-frequency edge oscillation (LFEO) appears in the I-mode phase of these discharges and displays coupling to the WCM, but the LFEO does not appear in the L-mode phase. Linear gyrokinetic simulations of the outer core and pedestal top turbulence indicate that while the dominant turbulent modes in the outer core are ion directed and electrostatic, the turbulence becomes increasingly electron directed and electromagnetic with increasing radius. Collisionality is not found to impact characteristics of the L-mode and I-mode edge turbulence with respect to the presence of the WCM; however, the quality of global confinement decreases with collisionality.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Artificial Intelligence for imaging Cherenkov detectors at the EIC

Abstract Imaging Cherenkov detectors form the backbone of particle identification (PID) at the future Electron Ion Collider (EIC). Currently all the designs for the first EIC detector proposal use a dual Ring Imaging CHerenkov (dRICH) detector in the hadron endcap, a Detector for Internally Reflected Cherenkov (DIRC) light in the barrel, and a modular RICH (mRICH) in the electron endcap. These detectors involve optical processes with many photons that need to be tracked through complex surfaces at the simulation level, while for reconstruction they rely on pattern recognition of ring images. This proceeding summarizes ongoing efforts and possible applications of AI for imaging Cherenkov detectors at EIC. In particular we will provide the example of the dRICH for the AI-assisted design and of the DIRC for simulation and particle identification from complex patterns and discuss possible advantages of using AI.

Instruments & Instrumentation↗

Upper bounds for 21st-century surface air temperatures in the Western United States

The last decade has seen a large number of severe heatwaves that were unprecedented in the observational record, highlighting challenges associated with observationally-based statistical quantification of the likelihood and magnitude of future extreme temperatures. An alternative to such probabilistic assessments is identification of upper bounds that quantify the hottest surface air temperatures that can possibly be achieved by the end of the 21st century. Theory, simulations, and observational analyses support the existence of a finite upper bound for surface air temperature; however, estimates for future upper-bound values that are realistic and usable for planning remain unavailable. Here, we combine atmospheric theory with large ensembles of dynamically downscaled projections to estimate historical and end-of-century upper bounds for surface air temperatures. A number of physical mechanisms can influence upper bounds, and at the end of the 21st century, estimates based on mechanisms that yield more moderate upper-bounds produce values around 60∘C for much of the Western United States and in excess of 80∘C for the hottest parts of the domain. Even cooler high-altitude locations have end-of-century upper bounds over 50∘C. Although these upper-bound estimates might seem implausibly large, increases in the upper bounds over the 21st century are similar to increases in dynamically downscaled peak surface temperatures after adjusting those downscaled temperatures to eliminate the possibly biased model trends in surface specific humidity. While upper bound estimates are high relative to historical observations, they nonetheless suggest that heatwave intensity risk is bounded, with uncertainty dominated by projections of surface and upper-level humidity.

Risser, Mark D↗

Interactions between molecular-scale processes and hyporheic exchange for understanding Fe-S-C cycling in riparian wetlands (Final Report)

Wetlands represent some of the most productive ecosystems on the planet and critically influence global environmental health. Specifically, wetlands promote water quality by transforming nutrients and organic compounds and sequestering metals and contaminants. Riparian wetland hyporheic zones, where toxic surface water and anoxic groundwater mix, exhibit dynamic conditions that drive steep redox gradients and promote hotspots of diverse and fluctuating microbial activity. Changes in climate, water quality, and water quantity can disturb hydrologic flow and biogeochemical processing in these environments. Understanding how sulfate loading, impacted by hydrologic flux and anthropogenic inputs, influences iron and carbon cycling in wetlands will be crucial for predicting water quality issues driven by iron mineral precipitation and sorption, such as the release of heavy metals and other toxic elements. We used a fully integrated multi-scale and multi-method approach to develop a mechanistic understanding of how hydrologic flow influences coupled iron and sulfur cycles in riparian wetlands. This entailed hydrological, geochemical, and microbial observations at two locations: an anthropogenic sulfate-impacted riparian wetland in northern Minnesota, and a low-sulfate Fe-rich riparian wetland in Tims Branch at the Savannah River Site (SRS). These sites were characterized by hydrologically dynamic conditions where the stream and wetland systems oscillated between gaining (upward flow) and losing (downward flow) conditions that recharged the system occasionally with oxidants that fueled a variety of biogeochemical reactions. Aqueous geochemical measurements of surface water, groundwater, and porewater samples were made alongside solid-phase geochemical analyses of sediment gravity cores. Bulk X-ray absorption spectroscopy at the Advanced Photon Source (APS; Argonne) interrogated the speciation and distribution of Fe and S mineral phases of the sediments. Interestingly, it was discovered that, despite strongly reducing conditions, Fe(III) compounds and a variety of intermediate valence S compounds were stable in the subsurface. Indeed, compounds like thiosulfate, S(0), and intermediate valence organosulfur compounds were more prevalent than FeS and pyrite. The composition of the sediments did change with changes in hydrologic flow, showing their reactivity in changing redox conditions. The abundance of these intermediate S compounds was likely formed as a result of anaerobic oxidation by aqueous and solid-phase Fe(III) compounds, fueling a cryptic S cycle that is driving the breakdown of organic matter in the hyporheic zone. Microbiome surveys showed a core community that seemed stable across the landscape, but changed with increasing depth into the sediment. The community composition did not seem to change dramatically with changes in season or hydrologic flow, except for some organisms that have the potential to contribute to S cycling. More work is needed to confirm their functional activity. These fine process-scale analyses were placed within a dynamic field context using physical flow parameters from surface water and groundwater level measurements. These data helped shed light on sulfur-driven biogeochemical processes in hydrologically dynamic riparian wetlands, addressing a gap in our understanding about the impacts of pollution and other anthropogenic changes on ecologically sensitive environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗