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At least 865 records · Page 48

Implications of post-processing induced microstructural changes on the deformation and fracture response of additively manufactured Ti–6Al–4V

Ti–6Al–4V parts fabricated via electron beam melting (EBM) powder bed fusion are often subjected to hot isostatic pressing below the β-transus temperature to mitigate defects. During which the pressure aids in pore closure and the thermal exposure results in coarsening of α phase while retaining the columnar prior-β phase grain morphology present in the as-fabricated condition. The same post-processing treatment can also be carried out above β-transus temperature which is an effective way to modify both the grain morphology and the associated α textures. Here, the objective of this work is to correlate thermally induced microstructural changes to the deformation and fracture response of the EBM processed Ti–6Al–4V. To this end, we have carried out both sub-transus and super-transus heat-treatments of the as-fabricated material. The mechanical response of the as-fabricated and all heat-treated materials are characterized by in-situ tensile tests under a high-resolution digital optical microscope. This enabled us to capture large-scale panoramic images of the deforming microstructure, and overcome the trade-off between the image resolution and the field of view during in-situ experiments. The series of images captured throughout the imposed deformation are subsequently used to perform microstructure-based digital image correlation to measure microstructural-scale strains over a large area. The results of the in-situ tests together with detailed fractographic analyses are then used to elucidate how the heterogeneous deformation spanning over multiple microstructural length-scales, for example, at the scale of lamellae, colonies of lamellae and grain boundaries, affect the overall deformation and fracture response of the post-processed materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Future Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency Curves of Extreme Precipitation in the Midwest United States From Convection‐Permitting Modeling

Abstract During the last four decades, global warming has statistically significant intensified extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States (defined here as the region covering Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky), leading to increased risks to human life, property, and infrastructure. To enable climate change adaptation and resilience across various economic and social sectors in this region, updated information about future climate changes, specifically at finer spatial scales, is essential. Leveraging a new 150‐year dynamical downscaling data set at convection‐permitting resolution, this study introduces a framework to construct the projected future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves of heavy precipitation, which are prominent tools for infrastructure design and water resources management. This framework generates IDF curves at both sub‐daily and multi‐day duration utilizing hourly in situ observations as well as quantile‐based statistical techniques in bias‐correction and return levels selection. The assumption of non‐stationarity in the distribution parameter fitting process is also implemented in this workflow. Compared to historical IDF curves for 1980–2022, future projected IDF curves for 2058–2100 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15% and 25%, respectively, across 74 stations, considering both annual and seasonal timescales. Future projections suggest that extreme precipitation events may become more severe across six investigated return periods, with longer return periods showing a greater increase. The frequency of future extreme precipitation events in the Midwest region is also projected to double. Furthermore, current results reveal spatial heterogeneity of future trends across stations owing to the high‐resolution input data set. Plain Language Summary This study investigates the evolving nature of extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States under a changing climate. By leveraging a high‐resolution dynamical downscaling data set, we construct projected intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves for future extreme rainfall events. These curves serve as vital tools for infrastructure planning and water resource management. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in both the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the region. Future projected IDF curves for the late century indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15%–25% compared to historical values. Moreover, the frequency of such events is expected to double. Spatial heterogeneity in future trends is observed across different stations within the Midwest, highlighting the importance of high‐resolution modeling in capturing localized climate variability. These findings underscore the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the increasing risks associated with extreme precipitation events in the region. Key Points This study introduces a workflow to construct future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves over the Midwest United States using a new convection‐permitting modeling data set The current IDF construction workflow reproduces well the historical observed IDF 30 curves in summer months with median relative errors of 2.4% among 74 stations and 6 investigated durations The projected IDF curves show diverse future trends of extreme precipitation across stations, with intensity increases of approximately 15% and 25% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, and a doubling of frequency on average

Nguyen, Trung↗

Evaluating How Climate Adaptation Measures Affect the Interconnected Water‐Energy Resource Systems of the Western United States

Abstract The Western US faces increasing water stress from the impacts of climate change, making it difficult to meet water demands for the region's cities, agriculture, and hydropower generators. Existing literature suggests that climate adaptation measures such as water conservation, cropland retirement, wastewater recycling, and managed aquifer recharge can alleviate some of these challenges. Few analyses, however, compare the relative efficacy and system‐wide effects of these adaptations under different climate projections across the entire Western United States. Here we use a Western US‐wide water systems model to evaluate, by sector and sub‐region, how the widespread implementation of these adaptive measures impacts water demands, water deliveries, and electricity use related to the water system for three different climate projections. We find that wastewater recycling has greater potential to lower unmet indoor water demands than urban indoor water conservation measures. However, when implemented at scale, indoor water conservation reduces electricity use by an average of 683 Terawatt hours while wastewater recycling increases energy use by an average of 721 Terawatt hours, cumulatively from 2020 to 2070. Cropland retirement and aquifer recharge adaptations increase the ability to meet agricultural water demand, increase groundwater storage, and reduce summertime electricity use. While most of these findings are consistent across different climate projections, the benefits of aquifer recharge are sensitive to spatial variation of precipitation. Given the limitations and tradeoffs of each individually, the results suggest that a portfolio of adaptation measures will be needed for a climate‐resilient water and energy future in the Western US. Plain Language Summary The Western US faces increased water stress from the impacts of climate change, making it difficult to meet demands for cities, agriculture, and hydropower facilities. Adaptation measures like water conservation, retiring agricultural lands, recycling wastewater, and storing water underground can address these challenges. However, there is little modeling to understand the impact of these adaptations if they were implemented across the entire Western US while also considering climate change. We use a Western US‐wide water systems model to evaluate how implementing adaptation measures impacts groundwater levels, the ability to meet water demands, and electricity use related to water in three different possible climate futures. We find that recycling wastewater to drinking water standards does a better job of meeting urban water demands than water conservation measures. However, indoor water conservation reduces energy use for water while recycling wastewater increases energy use for water. Retiring agricultural lands and storing water underground both increase the ability to meet agricultural water demands, increase underground water storage, and reduce summertime energy use. No adaptation measures provides benefits across every metric we track. Therefore, multiple adaptation measures will likely be needed to achieve a climate‐resilient future for energy and water in the Western US. Key Points Water‐related climate change adaptations have different benefits and tradeoffs for interconnected water‐energy systems in the Western U.S. Wastewater recycling most increases urban water coverage, but has a significant tradeoff in the form of greater electricity use Cropland retirement and aquifer recharge benefit water and electricity systems most in the summer when those systems are most stressed

Singhal, A↗

Cosmological implications of axion-matter couplings

Axions and other light particles appear ubiquitously in physics beyond the Standard Model, with a variety of possible couplings to ordinary matter. Cosmology offers a unique probe of these particles as they can thermalize in the hot environment of the early universe for any such coupling. For sub-MeV particles, their entropy must leave a measurable cosmological signal, usually via the effective number of relativistic particles, N eff . Here, in this paper, we will revisit the cosmological constraints on the couplings of axions and other pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone bosons to Standard Model fermions from thermalization below the electroweak scale, where these couplings are marginal and give contributions to the radiation density of ΔN eff > 0.027. We update the calculation of the production rates to eliminate unnecessary approximations and find that the cosmological bounds on these interactions are complementary to astrophysical constraints, e.g. from supernova SN 1987A. We additionally provide quantitative explanations for these bounds and their relationship.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Uncovering hidden bias in neutron diffraction residual strain measurements

When calculating residual strain via neutron or X-ray diffraction, uncertainties propagated from the peak fit are often inadequate to describe the true scatter of measurements about a singular strain state, such as one that should describe a macroscopic continuum. Because diffraction is inherently a selective process, orientation-dependent scatter arises from the sub-sampling of strong microstructure and strain gradients. This paper investigates the appropriateness of propagated uncertainties with reference to their original intention, i.e. noise about a mean value. Thirty-six unique orientations of strain measurements are taken at multiple locations within an additive friction-stir deposition component with fine-scale gradients (∼200 µm) of plastic strain, texture and residual elastic strain. Multiple strain and stress calculation pathways are compared: direct substitution of three measurements into Hooke's law, direct inversion of any six unique orientations into the strain state tensor and thirty-six measurement least-squares estimation. For the last two cases, the appropriateness of the uncertainty interval is statistically evaluated on the basis of a physical constraint: common agreement under the strain transformation law. For this sample, the direct inversion of six measurements retains a conservative estimate of the uncertainty. However, propagated uncertainties in the least-squares solution greatly underestimate the true experimental scatter. A simple pathway to estimate appropriate uncertainty intervals is suggested. These results demonstrate that the interpretation of uncertainty in residual strain is strongly dependent on intrinsic sample-dependent effects, and that oversampling orientations and statistical analysis can give more accurate results with realistic uncertainties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Mu2e Experiment at Fermilab

The Muon-to-Electron-Conversion (Mu2e) Experiment is a high-precision, intensity-frontier experiment being developed at Fermilab that will search for coherent, neutrino-less muon to electron conversion in the presence of an atomic nucleus. Such a process would exhibit charged lepton flavor violation (CLFV), which has not yet been observed. Continuing the search for CLFV, Mu2e will improve the sensitivity by four orders of magnitude over the present limits. In the search for beyond the standard model (BSM) physics, Mu2e is uniquely sensitive to a wide range of models by indirectly probing mass scales up to the energy scale of 10^4 TeV. While muon-to-electron-conversion is permissible in an extension of the standard model through neutrino oscillations, the rate is extremely low at about one event in 10^52. By design, the background for the experiment will be well-understood and kept at a sub-event level, which will mean the observation of muon-to-electron conversion is a dire ct confirmation of BSM physics. The physics motivation, the design, and the current status of the experiment will be presented.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Hierarchically Informed Engineering Models for Predictive Modeling of Turbulent Premixed Flame Propagation in Pre- chamber Turbulent Jet Ignition

The goal of the project is to improve the predictive accuracy and efficiency of turbulent combustion sub-models for pre-chamber turbulent jet ignition (TJI). This goal is achieved through the development of a hierarchically informed engineering model for turbulent combustion in TJI. The model development starts with the highest level of model description of turbulent combustion with direct numerical simulation (DNS) from which fundamental characteristics and scaling properties of turbulent premixed flame propagation under TJI relevant conditions are obtained.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Dynamic Thermal Performance Analysis of PCM Products Used for Energy Efficiency and Internal Climate Control in Buildings

PCMs are attractive for the future generation of buildings, where energy efficiency targets and thermal comfort expectations are increasingly prioritized. Experimental analysis of local thermal processes in these dynamic components and whole-building energy consumption predictions are essential for the proper implementation of PCMs in buildings. This paper discusses the experimental analysis of the thermophysical characteristics of both a latent heat storage material (PCM) and a product containing this PCM. The prototype product under investigation is a panelized PCM technology containing inorganic, salt-hydrate-based PCM. The thermal analysis includes studies of melting and freezing temperatures, enthalpy changes during phase change processes, nucleation intensity, sub-cooling effects, and PCM stability. The PCM’s stability is also investigated, as is the ability of PCM products to control local temperatures and peak load transmission times. Two inorganic PCM formulations based on calcium chloride hexahydrate (CaCl 2 .6H 2 O) were prepared and tested in laboratory conditions. Material-scale testing results were compared with outcomes from the system-scale analysis, using both laboratory test methods as well as field exposure in test huts. This work demonstrates that PCM technologies used in buildings can effectively control both the magnitude of thermal storage capacity as well as the time of the peak thermal load. It was found that commonly used material-scale testing methods may not always be beneficial in assessing the dynamic thermal performance characteristics of building technologies containing PCMs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Low-latency NuMI Trigger for the CHIPS-5 Neutrino Detector

The CHIPS R&D project aims to develop affordable water Cherenkov detectors for large-scale underwater installations. In 2019, a 5kt prototype detector CHIPS-5 was deployed in northern Minnesota to study neutrinos generated by the nearby NuMI beam. This contribution presents a dedicated low-latency time distribution system for CHIPS-5 that delivers timing signals from the Fermilab accelerator to the detector with sub-nanosecond precision. Exploiting existing NOvA infrastructure, the time distribution system achieves this only with open-source software and conventional network elements. In a time-of-flight study, the presented system has reliably offered a time budget of $610 \pm 330\text{ ms}$ for on-site triggering. This permits advanced analysis in real-time as well as a novel hardware-assisted active triggering mode, which reduces DAQ computing load and network bandwidth outside triggered time windows.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

The Future Circular Collider: a Summary for the US 2021 Snowmass Process

In this white paper for the 2021 Snowmass process, we give a description of the proposed Future Circular Collider (FCC) project and its physics program. The paper summarizes and updates the discussion submitted to the European Strategy on Particle Physics. After construction of an approximately 90 km tunnel, an electron-positron collider based on established technologies allows world-record instantaneous luminosities at center-of-mass energies from the Z resonance up to tt thresholds, enabling a rich set of fundamental measurements including Higgs couplings determinations at the sub percent level, precision tests of the weak and strong forces, and searches for new particles, including dark matter, both directly and via virtual corrections or mixing. Among other possibilities, the FCC-ee will be able to (i) indirectly discover new particles coupling to the Higgs and/or electroweak bosons up to scales around 7 and 50 TeV, respectively; (ii) perform competitive SUSY tests at the loop level in regions not accessible at the LHC; (iii) study heavy-flavor and tau physics in ultra-rare decays beyond the LHC reach, and (iv) achieve the best potential in direct collider searches for dark matter, sterile neutrinos, and axion-like particles with masses up to around 90 GeV. The tunnel can then be reused for a proton-proton collider, establishing record center-of-mass collision energy, allowing unprecedented reach for direct searches for new particles up to the around 50 TeV scale, and a diverse program of measurements of the Standard Model and Higgs boson, including a precision measurement of the Higgs self-coupling, and conclusively testing weakly-interacting massive particle scenarios of thermal relic dark matter.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Design, optimization, and validation of a triply periodic minimal surface based heat exchanger for extreme temperature applications

Heat exchanger (HX) innovation offers potential for significant improvements in energy efficiency for a host of applications including but not limited to aviation and power generation cycles. Triply Periodic Minimal Surfaces (TPMS) have received significant attention in recent years due to their incredibly high surface area density, which makes them very attractive from a heat transfer point of view. Recent efforts have largely focused on thermal-hydraulic characterization of the many available TPMS and the testing of small-scale HX prototypes. However, practical implementation remains largely unexplored, partially due to the extreme computational cost associated with accurately simulating these complex structures. In this work, we present the design, simulation, and optimization of a TPMS-HX for high temperature (900 °C) and pressure (25 MPa) applications. Detailed analysis of HX sub-sections is conducted to define the smallest repeatable section which may be used to characterize the thermal-hydraulic performance of the entire HX, enabling rapid design and iteration with significantly reduced computational cost. Compared to preliminary results for a water-to-water experiment, calibrated heat transfer and pressure drop predictions were within ±5 % and ±10 %, respectively. Optimization results show a 10x increase in volumetric power density over the initial design, which is verified against a parametric exhaustive search of the HX design space. Furthermore, it was found that reducing the unit cell hydraulic diameter cell plays the largest role in increasing heat transfer, increasing the surface area density and enabling a more compact and efficient HX.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Sub-daily virus sampling at the Bermuda Atlantic Time Series reveals diel and depth-structured population dynamics without community-level shifts

Ocean microbes contribute to biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem function, but they do so under top-down pressure imposed by viruses. While viruses are increasingly understood spatially and beginning to be incorporated into predictive modeling, high-frequency ocean virus dynamics remain understudied due to methodological challenges. Here we sampled stratified Bermuda Atlantic Time Series (BATS) waters for 112 hours at sub-daily 4- (surface) or 12- (deep chlorophyll maximum) hour intervals, purified viral particles from these samples, sequenced their metagenomes, and used the resulting data to characterize high-frequency virus community dynamics. Aggregated community diversity metrics changed with depth, but were not statistically significant temporally at a fixed location. However, finer-scale population-level analyses revealed both depth and temporal change, including physicochemical depth-driven differences and, in surface waters, thousands of viral populations that exhibited statistically significant diel rhythms. Statistical analyses revealed three main archetypes of temporal dynamics that themselves differed in abundance patterns, host predictions, viral taxonomy, and gene functions. Among these, highlights include viruses resembling an archetype with a night peaking pattern in activity that include an over-representation of viruses that putatively infect Prochlorococcus, a phototrophic cyanobacteria. Together, these efforts provide baseline community- and population-scale short-time-frame observations relevant to future climate state modeling.

Carrillo, Alfonso [The Ohio State University, Colu↗

High-Efficiency, Low-Cost III-V Solar Cells by Dynamic Hydride Vapor Phase Epitaxy Coupled with Rapid, Polishing-Free Wafer Reuse through Orientation-Optimized (110) Spalling

We demonstrated (110) GaAs solar cells grown by D-HVPE with equivalent performance and material quality relative to (100) devices. Also, we developed a procedure for repeatable wafer-scale spalling of (110) GaAs. Spalled surfaces were free of the facets founds in (100) GaAs spalling, the large arrest lines found in (100) Ge spalling, and surface features greater than 3 µm in peak-to-valley height, which can otherwise degrade the efficiency of regrown III-V devices. A sub-µm step-terrace morphology was discovered on the post-spall wafer surface, resulting from the restricted cleavage system of GaAs, but we developed understanding of the factors that determine the resulting morphology, enabling ample opportunity for optimization of morphologies suitable for device growth and spall depth waste minimization on (110) GaAs. Lastly, we demonstrated a device grown on a previously spalled surface with only 8% relative efficiency difference to a cell grown on a new unspalled wafer. Significant optimization of the substrate regrowth conditions are required to enable higher efficiency, but these results highlight the promise of (110)-oriented devices coupled with substrate reuse by spalling as a pathway for low-cost III-V photovoltaics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Distinct responses of Asian summer monsoon to black carbon aerosols and greenhouse gases

Black carbon (BC) aerosols emitted from natural and anthropogenic sources induce positive radiative forcing and global warming, which in turn significantly affect the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). However, many aspects of the BC effect on ASM remain elusive and largely inconsistent among previous studies, which is strongly dependent on different low-level thermal feedbacks over the Asian continent and the surrounding ocean. This study examines the response of ASM to BC forcing in comparison with the effect of doubled greenhouse gases (GHGs) by analyzing the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) simulations under an extreme high BC level (10 times modern global BC emissions or concentrations, labeled by BC $\times$ 10) from nine global climate models (GCMs). The results show that although BC and GHGs both enhance the ASM precipitation minus evaporation (P–E) (a 13.6 % increase for BC forcing and 12.1 % for GHGs from the nine-model ensemble, respectively), there exists a much larger uncertainty in changes in ASM P–E induced by BC than by GHGs. The summer P–E is increased by 7.7 % to 15.3 % due to these two forcings over three sub-regions including East Asian, South Asian, and western North Pacific monsoon regions. Further analysis of moisture budget reveals distinct mechanisms controlling the increases in ASM P–E induced by BC and GHGs. The change in ASM P–E by BC is dominated by the dynamic effect due to the enhanced large-scale monsoon circulation, whereas the GHG-induced change is dominated by the thermodynamic effect through increasing atmospheric water vapor. Radiative forcing of BC significantly increases the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region to enhance the upper-level meridional land-sea thermal gradient (MLOTG), resulting in a northward shift of the upper-level subtropical westerly jet and an enhancement of the low-level monsoon circulation; whereas radiative forcing of GHGs significantly increases the tropical upper-level temperature, which reduces the upper-level MLOTG and suppresses the low-level monsoonal circulation. Hence, our results indicate a different mechanism of BC climate effects under the extreme high BC level, that BC forcing significantly enhances the upper-level atmospheric temperature over the Asian region, determining ASM changes, instead of low-level thermal feedbacks as indicated by previous studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Toward closure between predicted and observed particle viscosity over a wide range of temperatures and relative humidity

Abstract. Atmospheric aerosols can exist in amorphous semi-solid or glassy phase states whose viscosity varies with atmospheric temperature and relative humidity. The temperature and humidity dependence of viscosity has been hypothesized to be predictable from the combination of a water–organic binary mixing rule of the glass transition temperature, a glass-transition-temperature-scaled viscosity fragility parameterization, and a water uptake parameterization. This work presents a closure study between predicted and observed viscosity for sucrose and citric acid. Viscosity and glass transition temperature as a function of water content are compiled from literature data and used to constrain the fragility parameterization. New measurements characterizing viscosity of sub-100 nm particles using the dimer relaxation method are presented. These measurements extend the available data of temperature- and humidity-dependent viscosity to −28 ∘C. Predicted relationships agree well with observations at room temperature and with measured isopleths of constant viscosity at ∼107 Pa s at temperatures warmer than −28 ∘C. Discrepancies at colder temperatures are observed for sucrose particles. Simulations with the kinetic multi-layer model of gas–particle interactions suggest that the observed deviations at colder temperature for sucrose can be attributed to kinetic limitations associated with water uptake at the timescales of the dimer relaxation experiments. Using the available information, updated equilibrium phase-state diagrams (-80∘C

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Isothermal oxidation of zirconium using steam

Oxidation of zirconium and its alloys under any atmosphere is generally characterised by a protective and non-protective stage. During the protective stage, the kinetics of oxidation are quasi-parabolic, while the oxide scale formed on the surface of the metal is black, compact, and protective in nature. For the non-protective stage, the oxidation rate becomes linear, while the protective oxide film turns into a deteriorated white scale. Breakaway is known as the transition point from protective to non-protective stage. The actual mechanism leading to breakaway of zirconium is still a matter of controversy, however some of the most common factors affecting breakaway are the following: - Impurities on the metal (Carbon, Oxygen, Nitrogen); - Oxidizing atmosphere (Presence of H{sub 2}O (g) or N{sub 2} (g)); - Sample preparation (Chemically etched or polished); - Temperature (LWR, LOCA). This research investigates the effect of temperature on 'breakaway' when zirconium is oxidized isothermally in steam for 60 min at 800 and 900 deg. C using thermogravimetric and optical microscopic imaging techniques. 1. Steam isothermal oxidations were performed on zirconium at 800 and 900 deg. C using a Thermogravimetric Analyzer (TGA). 2. Log-log plots of mass gain vs time were obtained from thermogravimetric results to calculate the reaction orders (n) and reaction rate constants (K) during oxidation. 3. Results of the kinetics of reaction were correlated with optical microscopic images form Light Microscope (LM) and Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM). Breakaway depends very strongly on temperature. At 800 deg. C, the weight gain followed a cubic-parabolic behaviour with evidence of a protective oxide film. On the other hand, oxidation at 900 deg. C showed signs of breakaway since the oxide film was cracked and oxidation rate was almost linear throughout the reaction.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Patch2Self2: Self-supervised Denoising on Coresets via Matrix Sketching

Diffusion MRI (dMRI) non-invasively maps brain white matter yet necessitates denoising due to low signal-to-noise ratios. Patch2Self (P2S) employing self-supervised techniques and regression on a Casorati matrix effectively denoises dMRI images and has become the new de-facto standard in this field. P2S however is resource intensive both in terms of running time and memory usage as it uses all voxels (n) from all-but-one held-in volumes (d-1) to learn a linear mapping Phi : \mathbb R ^ n x(d-1) \mapsto \mathbb R ^ n for denoising the held-out volume. The increasing size and dimensionality of higher resolution dMRI acquisitions can make P2S infeasible for large-scale analyses. This work exploits the redundancy imposed by P2S to alleviate its performance issues and inspect regions that influence the noise disproportionately. Specifically this study makes a three-fold contribution: (1) We present Patch2Self2 (P2S2) a method that uses matrix sketching to perform self-supervised denoising. By solving a sub-problem on a smaller sub-space so called coreset we show how P2S2 can yield a significant speedup in training time while using less memory. (2) We present a theoretical analysis of P2S2 focusing on determining the optimal sketch size through rank estimation a key step in achieving a balance between denoising accuracy and computational efficiency. (3) We show how the so-called statistical leverage scores can be used to interpret the denoising of dMRI data a process that was traditionally treated as a black-box. Experimental results on both simulated and real data affirm that P2S2 maintains denoising quality while significantly enhancing speed and memory efficiency achieved by training on a reduced data subset.

Fadnavis, Shreyas↗

FFTSF: Revisiting Sub-Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting with Simple Feedforward Network

Accurate short-to-subseasonal streamflow forecasts are vital for water management, including flood preparedness, drought mitigation, hydropower scheduling, and ecosystem protection. However, extending a forecast beyond a few days remains challenging due to complexity of hydrological processes. While recent self-attention based transformer architectures such as iTransformer have gained traction in time-series forecasting, these models suffer from several critical limitations: (1) significant computational overhead that scales quadratically with sequence length, (2) vulnerability to overfitting on limited hydrological datasets, (3) degraded performance on long-horizon forecasts due to attention decay, and (4) excessive architectural complexity that hampers interpretability and operational deployment. In this study, we propose a simple Feedforward Time Series Forecasting (FFTSF) network that directly addresses these limitations through its lightweight architecture and long-range forecasting capabilities. We evaluate FFTSF across 178 USGS stream gauges spanning diverse climate regimes by forecasting lead times of 1-, 7-, 14-, and 30-days. Our results demonstrate that FFTSF achieves competitive performance at short lead times (NSE of 0.778 for 1-day forecasts) while substantially outperforming complex baselines at longer forecast period, achieving the highest NSE (0.271) at 30-day forecasts with greater robustness and stability. For 30-day forecasts, FFTSF achieves a 71% improvement over NLinear, 57% improvement over DLinear and 12% improvement over the computationally intensive iTransformer while requiring fewer computational resources. Our findings reveal that architectural complexity is not necessary for hydrological forecasting, demonstrating that well-designed simple models can outperform attention mechanisms for subseasonal streamflow forecasting. The computational efficiency and consistent long-range performance of FFTSF make it suitable for water management applications where reliable extended forecasts are essential.

Krishnan Kutty Ambika, Anukesh [ORNL] (ORCID:00000↗