Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “statistical physics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 865 records · Page 48
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2023

Improving Tornado Casualty Predictions in the US With Population Exposure Data and A Modified Social Vulnerability Index

Tornadoes are frequent and widespread events that often account for hundreds of injuries and fatalities, and millions of dollars in damages. Multiple studies have analyzed tornado climatology and associated exposure; however, fewer have focused on predicting fatalities and injuries by coupling geospatial data on tornado characteristics and underlying social and economic vulnerability. In this study, we test the ability of negative binomial regression models to predict tornado-induced injuries and fatalities by coupling data on physical characteristics of tornadoes, exposure of populations, and underlying social vulnerability. We also present a modified spatially weighted social vulnerability index SVI* wt . We used 10-year (2005-2014) tornado data over the continental United States for this analysis. The results of this study indicate that the tornado length, magnitude and nocturnality seem to be the major hazard-related indicators of fatalities (McFadden’s Pseudo- R 2 ranged from 0.01-0.12). Population exposure and SVI* wt are positive and statistically significant in predicting tornado related fatalities and injuries (Pseudo R 2 of 0.11-0.18). Although combining SVI* wt with hazard variables does not substantially improve model fit when compared to adding population exposure, combining SVI* wt , hazard and exposure results in better predictions of both injuries and fatalities (Pseudo R 2 of 0.17) and is also an improvement on previous similar studies.

disaster↗
NASA NTRS2022

Near Space Demonstration of A Compact LWIR Spectro-Polarimeter for Ice Cloud Measurements

In the summer of 2021, an InfraRed Channeled Spectro-Polarimeter (IRCSP) was demonstrated in the near space environment aboard a NASA Columbia Scientific Ballooning Facility high-altitude balloon out of Fort Sumner, NM. The compact IRCSP is sensitive to linearly polarized long-wave infrared (LWIR) light between 7-12 micron and targets cloud micro-physical properties. Post landing the instrument was retrieved with no damage to the optical payload and collected over 150 minutes of flight data at altitudes above 30 km. The results collected both demonstrate the application of uncooled microbolometers in the low pressure environment and represent the first know field evidence of a polarized signal from clouds in the LWIR. During deployment, the IRCSP reported brightness temperatures between 250-285K with uncertainty of < 1.5K. In addition, multiple intervals of statistically significant polarization with degrees of linear polarization (DoLP) between 1−20% were detected. These results support the hypothesis that the LWIR polarimetry has the potential to add new sensitivity to existing remote sensing platforms.

remote sensing↗
NASA NTRS1985

On Fofonoff's Mode

The classical barotropic ocean model of Veronis (1966) is reexamined to verify the possible existence of Fofonoff's (1954) steady free inertial mode by considering the balance where J is the Jacobian, eta is the streamfunction of the horizontal velocity, and R is a parameter of nonlinearity. A linear functional relationship between the potential vorticity and the streamfunction and inertial boundary layers along the ocean basin was suggested by Fofonoff. However, the numerical integration showed that the system is barotropically unstable. The typical instantaneous field is given. The statistical equilibrium state eta is also given. Although it resembles Fofonoff's solution, it is maintained by the Reynolds stress field induced by the eddies in addition to the wind stress and dissipation. The plot of eta versus R delta sq +y is given. It is shown that the Fofonoff's linear relation between the potential vorticity and the streamfunction does not hold uniformly over the entire basin. The above results show that the Fofonoff's solution can not be realized physically.

Merkine, L. O.↗
NASA NTRS1986

X-ray and radio core emission in radio quasars

In order to investigate the physical relationship between X-ray and radio core emission in radio-selected quasars, 35 radio quasars have been observed with the VLA at 6 and 20 cm. The sample was chosen from a list of radio quasars with known X-ray luminosity but poorly known radio properties. Including data gathered from the literature, radio core detections or upper limits at 6 cm have been obtained for 127 radio quasars which have published Einstein X-ray data. A statistical association is sought between radio core luminosity and X-ray luminosity, and it is found that there is a strong correlation. The slope of the relation of L(x) to L(Gamma)-alpha is alpha = 0.71 + or - 0.07 for unresolved quasars with flat radio spectra. The slope decreases as quasars with extended radio regions are considered. This is traced to the presence of radio emission which is unrelated to the X-ray emission, in the presently unresolved cores of quasars.

Kembhavi, A.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Microwave Remote Sensing of Soil Moisture for Estimation of Soil Properties

Surface soil moisture dynamics was derived using microwave remote sensing, and employed to estimate soil physical and hydraulic properties. The L-band ESTAR radiometer was employed in an airborne campaign over the Little Washita watershed, Oklahoma during June 10-18, 1992. Brightness temperature (TB) data were employed in a soil moisture inversion algorithm which corrected for vegetation and soil effects. Analyses of spatial TB and soil moisture dynamics during the dry-down period revealed a direct relationship between changes in TB, soil moisture and soil texture. Extensive regression analyses were carried out which yielded statistically significant quantitative relationships between ratio of percent sand to percent clay (RSC, a term derived to quantify soil texture) and saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat) in terms of change components of TB and surface soil moisture. Validation of results indicated that both RSC and Ksat can be estimated with reasonable accuracy. These findings have potential applications for deriving spatial distributions of RSC and Ksat over large areas.

Mattikalli, Nandish M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Simulation of Micron-Sized Debris Populations in Low Earth Orbit

The update of ORDEM2000, the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, to its new version ORDEM2010, is nearly complete. As a part of the ORDEM upgrade, this paper addresses the simulation of micro-debris (greater than 10 m and smaller than 1 mm in size) populations in low Earth orbit. The principal data used in the modeling of the micron-sized debris populations are in-situ hypervelocity impact records, accumulated in post-flight damage surveys on the space-exposed surfaces of returned spacecrafts. The development of the micro-debris model populations follows the general approach to deriving other ORDEM2010-required input populations for various components and types of debris. This paper describes the key elements and major steps in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2010 micro-debris populations. A crucial step is the construction of a degradation/ejecta source model to provide prior information on the micron-sized objects (such as orbital and object-size distributions). Another critical step is to link model populations with data, which is rather involved. It demands detailed information on area-time/directionality for all the space-exposed elements of a shuttle orbiter and damage laws, which relate impact damage with the physical properties of a projectile and impact conditions such as impact angle and velocity. Also needed are model-predicted debris fluxes as a function of object size and impact velocity from all possible directions. In spite of the very limited quantity of the available shuttle impact data, the population-derivation process is satisfactorily stable. Final modeling results obtained from shuttle window and radiator impact data are reasonably convergent and consistent, especially for the debris populations with object-size thresholds at 10 and 100 m.

Xu, Y.-L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Simulation of Micron-Sized Debris Populations in Low Earth Orbit

The update of ORDEM2000, the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, to its new version . ORDEM2010, is nearly complete. As a part of the ORDEM upgrade, this paper addresses the simulation of micro-debris (greater than 10 micron and smaller than 1 mm in size) populations in low Earth orbit. The principal data used in the modeling of the micron-sized debris populations are in-situ hypervelocity impact records, accumulated in post-flight damage surveys on the space-exposed surfaces of returned spacecrafts. The development of the micro-debris model populations follows the general approach to deriving other ORDEM2010-required input populations for various components and types of debris. This paper describes the key elements and major steps in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2010 micro-debris populations. A crucial step is the construction of a degradation/ejecta source model to provide prior information on the micron-sized objects (such as orbital and object-size distributions). Another critical step is to link model populations with data, which is rather involved. It demands detailed information on area-time/directionality for all the space-exposed elements of a shuttle orbiter and damage laws, which relate impact damage with the physical properties of a projectile and impact conditions such as impact angle and velocity. Also needed are model-predicted debris fluxes as a function of object size and impact velocity from all possible directions. In spite of the very limited quantity of the available shuttle impact data, the population-derivation process is satisfactorily stable. Final modeling results obtained from shuttle window and radiator impact data are reasonably convergent and consistent, especially for the debris populations with object-size thresholds at 10 and 100 micron.

Xu, Y.-L.↗
NASA NTRS2019

On the Coronal Mass Ejection Detection Rate during Solar Cycles 23 and 24

The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission's white light coronagraphs have observed more than25,000 coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from 1996 January to the end of 2015 July. This period of time covers almost two solar cycles (23 and 24). The basic attributes of CMEs, reported in the SOHO/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) catalog, during these solar cycles were statistically analyzed. The question of the CME detection rate and its connection to the solar cycles was considered in detail. Based on the properties and detection rate, CMEs can be divided into two categories: regular and specific events. The regular events are pronounced and follow the pattern of sunspot number. On the other hand, the special events are poorer and more correlated with the general conditions of heliosphere and corona. Nevertheless, both groups of CMEs are the result of the same physical phenomenon, viz. release of magnetic energy from closed field regions. It was demonstrated that the enhanced CME rate, since the solar cycle 23 polar-field reversal, is due to a significant decrease of total(magnetic and plasma) heliospheric pressure as well as the changed magnetic pattern of solar corona. CMEs expel free magnetic energy and helicity from the Sun; therefore, they are related to complex solar magnetic field structure. It is also worth emphasizing that the CMEs listed in the SOHO/LASCO catalog are real ejections (not false identification). Their detection rate reflects the global evolution of the magnetic field on the Sun, and not only changes in the magnetic structures associated with sunspots.

Michalek, Grzegorz↗
NASA NTRS2021

Estimation of Snow Mass Information via Assimilation of C-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar Backscatter Observations Into an Advanced and Surface Model

This study assimilated Sentinel-1 C-band backscatter observations over snow-covered terrain into the Noah-Multiparameterization land surface model using support vector machine (SVM) regression and an ensemble Kalman filter to improve the modeled terrestrial snow mass estimates. The data assimilation (DA) experiment was conducted across Western Colorado from September 2016 to August 2017. As part of the DA experiments, the impact of a rule-based update was evaluated by comparing snow water equivalent (SWE) estimates via DA (with [ DAv1 ] and without [ DAv2 ] the rule-based update) against SNOTEL SWE measurements. Results confirmed that rule-based update helped minimize SVM controllability issues, and in turn, improved the accuracy of SWE estimates relative to both open loop (OL) and DAv2 . Comparison of SWE estimates from Sentinel-1 DAv1 against SNOTEL SWE revealed that 75% of stations showed improvements in bias and correlation coefficient relative to the OL. Assimilated SWE estimates also showed statistical improvements during both the snow accumulation and snow ablation periods. However, unbiased root mean square error showed a slight increase during the snow ablation period due to the large variability in the electromagnetic response of C-band backscatter over deep and/or wet snow. Improvement of the SWE estimates also resulted in improving river discharge estimates compared to in situ measurements. River discharge using Sentinel-1 DAv1 improved the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency at all available stations. These results suggest that physically constrained SVM can serve as an efficient observation operator for snow mass DA through explicit consideration of the first-order C-band scattering mechanisms over different terrestrial snow conditions.

Jongmin Park↗
NASA NTRS2008

Role of Gravity Waves in Determining Cirrus Cloud Properties

Cirrus clouds are important in the Earth's radiation budget. They typically exhibit variable physical properties within a given cloud system and from system to system. Ambient vertical motion is a key factor in determining the cloud properties in most cases. The obvious exception is convectively generated cirrus (anvils), but even in this case, the subsequent cloud evolution is strongly influenced by the ambient vertical motion field. It is well know that gravity waves are ubiquitous in the atmosphere and occur over a wide range of scales and amplitudes. Moreover, researchers have found that inclusion of statistical account of gravity wave effects can markedly improve the realism of simulations of persisting large-scale cirrus cloud features. Here, we use a 1 -dimensional (z) cirrus cloud model, to systematically examine the effects of gravity waves on cirrus cloud properties. The model includes a detailed representation of cloud microphysical processes (bin microphysics and aerosols) and is run at relatively fine vertical resolution so as to adequately resolve nucleation events, and over an extended time span so as to incorporate the passage of multiple gravity waves. The prescribed gravity waves "propagate" at 15 m s (sup -1), with wavelengths from 5 to 100 km, amplitudes range up to 1 m s (sup -1)'. Despite the fact that the net gravity wave vertical motion forcing is zero, it will be shown that the bulk cloud properties, e.g., vertically-integrated ice water path, can differ quite significantly from simulations without gravity waves and that the effects do depend on the wave characteristics. We conclude that account of gravity wave effects is important if large-scale models are to generate realistic cirrus cloud property climatology (statistics).

OCStarr, David↗
NASA NTRS2007

Gamma-Ray Burst Afterglows as Probes of Environment and Blastwave Physics II: The Distribution of p and Structure of the Circumburst Medium

We constrain blastwave parameters and the circumburst media of a subsample of BeppoSAX Gamma-Ray Bursts. For this sample we derive the values of the injected electron energy distribution index, p, and the density structure index of the circumburst medium, k, from simultaneous spectral fits to their X-ray, optical and nIR afterglow data. The spectral fits have been done in count space and include the effects of metallicity, and are compared with the previously reported optical and X-ray temporal behaviour. Assuming the fireball model, we can find a mean value of p for the sample as a whole of 2.035. A statistical analysis Of the distribution demonstrates that the p values in this sample are inconsistent with a single universal value for p at the 3sigma level or greater. This approach provides us with a measured distribution of circumburst density structures rather than considering only the cases of k = 0 (homogeneous) and k = 2 (wind-like). We find five GRBs for which k can be well constrained, and in four of these cases the circumburst medium is clearly wind-like. The fifth source has a value of 0 less than or equal to k less than or equal to 1, consistent with a homogeneous circumburst medium.

Starling, R. L. C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Physics of Failure Approach to Evaluate Printed Circuit Board Reliability

Risk based technology infusion is a deliberate and systematic process which defines the analysis and communication methodology by which new technology is applied and integrated into existing and new designs, identifies technology development needs based on trends analysis and facilitates the identification of shortfalls against performance objectives. This presentation at IPC Works Asia Aerospace 2019 Events provides the audience a snapshot of quality variations in printed wiring board quality, as assessed, using experiences in processing and risk analysis of PWB structural integrity coupons. The presentation will focus on printed wiring board quality metrics used, the relative type and number of non-conformances observed and trend analysis using statistical methods. Trend analysis shows the top five non-conformances observed across PWB suppliers, the root cause(s) behind these non-conformance and suggestions of mitigation plans. The trends will then be matched with the current state of the PWB supplier base and its challenges and opportunities. The presentation further discusses the risk based SMA approaches and methods being applied at GSFC for evaluating candidate printed wiring board technologies which promote the adoption of higher throughput and faster processing technology for GSFC missions.

Printed Circuit Boards↗
NASA NTRS2013

Monte Carlo Bayesian Inference on a Statistical Model of Sub-gridcolumn Moisture Variability Using High-resolution Cloud Observations : Sensitivity Tests and Results - Part II

Part I presented a Monte Carlo Bayesian method for constraining a complex statistical model of GCM sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution MODIS cloud data, thereby permitting large-scale model parameter estimation and cloud data assimilation. This part performs some basic testing of this new approach, verifying that it does indeed significantly reduce mean and standard deviation biases with respect to the assimilated MODIS cloud optical depth, brightness temperature and cloud top pressure, and that it also improves the simulated rotational-Ramman scattering cloud optical centroid pressure (OCP) against independent (non-assimilated) retrievals from the OMI instrument. Of particular interest, the Monte Carlo method does show skill in the especially difficult case where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach allows finite jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. In the example provided, the method is able to restore marine stratocumulus near the Californian coast where the background state has a clear swath. This paper also examines a number of algorithmic and physical sensitivities of the new method and provides guidance for its cost-effective implementation. One obvious difficulty for the method, and other cloud data assimilation methods as well, is the lack of information content in the cloud observables on cloud vertical structure, beyond cloud top pressure and optical thickness, thus necessitating strong dependence on the background vertical moisture structure. It is found that a simple flow-dependent correlation modification due to Riishojgaard (1998) provides some help in this respect, by better honoring inversion structures in the background state.

Monte Carlo Bayesian inference↗
NASA NTRS2004

The EUSO Mission

The investigation of cosmic rays with energies in excess of 10(exp 20) eV holds the potential for discoveries in astrophysics, cosmology and/or fundamental physics. This has motivated the construction of very large ground-based experiments and has lead to the development of the first space mission to measure these cosmic rays, the Extreme Universe Space Observatory (EUSO). EUSO will use the Earth s atmosphere viewed from space as a detector of extreme energy cosmic rays (EECRs). EUSO s collecting power will exceed the present experiments by more than a factor of 10 and extend the cosmic ray spectrum beyond 10(exp 20) eV with high statistics.

Adams, James H., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Disabling CNT Electronic Devices by Use of Electron Beams

Bombardment with tightly focused electron beams has been suggested as a means of electrically disabling selected individual carbon-nanotubes (CNTs) in electronic devices. Evidence in support of the suggestion was obtained in an experiment in which a CNT field-effect transistor was disabled (see figure) by focusing a 1-keV electron beam on a CNT that served as the active channel of a field-effect transistor (FET). Such bombardment could be useful in the manufacture of nonvolatile-memory circuits containing CNT FETs. Ultimately, in order to obtain the best electronic performances in CNT FETs and other electronic devices, it will be necessary to fabricate the devices such that each one contains only a single CNT as an active element. At present, this is difficult because there is no way to grow a single CNT at a specific location and with a specific orientation. Instead, the common practice is to build CNTs into electronic devices by relying on spatial distribution to bridge contacts. This practice results in some devices containing no CNTs and some devices containing more than one CNT. Thus, CNT FETs have statistically distributed electronic characteristics (including switching voltages, gains, and mixtures of metallic and semiconducting CNTs). According to the suggestion, by using a 1-keV electron beam (e.g., a beam from a scanning electron microscope), a particular nanotube could be rendered electrically dysfunctional. This procedure could be repeated as many times as necessary on different CNTs in a device until all of the excess CNTs in the device had been disabled, leaving only one CNT as an active element (e.g., as FET channel). The physical mechanism through which a CNT becomes electrically disabled is not yet understood. On one hand, data in the literature show that electron kinetic energy >86 keV is needed to cause displacement damage in a CNT. On the other hand, inasmuch as a 1-keV beam focused on a small spot (typically a few tens of nanometers wide) deposits a significant amount of energy in a small volume, the energy density may suffice to thermally induce structural and/or electronic changes that disable the CNT. Research may be warranted to investigate this effect in detail.

Petkov, Mihail↗
NASA NTRS2014

Turbulent Concentration of MM-Size Particles in the Protoplanetary Nebula: Scaled-Dependent Multiplier Functions

The initial accretion of primitive bodies (asteroids and TNOs) from freely-floating nebula particles remains problematic. Here we focus on the asteroids where constituent particle (read "chondrule") sizes are observationally known; similar arguments will hold for TNOs, but the constituent particles in those regions will be smaller, or will be fluffy aggregates, and are unobserved. Traditional growth-bysticking models encounter a formidable "meter-size barrier" [1] (or even a mm-cm-size barrier [2]) in turbulent nebulae, while nonturbulent nebulae form large asteroids too quickly to explain long spreads in formation times, or the dearth of melted asteroids [3]. Even if growth by sticking could somehow breach the meter size barrier, other obstacles are encountered through the 1-10km size range [4]. Another clue regarding planetesimal formation is an apparent 100km diameter peak in the pre-depletion, pre-erosion mass distribution of asteroids [5]; scenarios leading directly from independent nebula particulates to this size, which avoid the problematic m-km size range, could be called "leapfrog" scenarios [6-8]. The leapfrog scenario we have studied in detail involves formation of dense clumps of aerodynamically selected, typically mm-size particles in turbulence, which can under certain conditions shrink inexorably on 100-1000 orbit timescales and form 10-100km diameter sandpile planetesimals. The typical sizes of planetesimals and the rate of their formation [7,8] are determined by a statistical model with properties inferred from large numerical simulations of turbulence [9]. Nebula turbulence can be described by its Reynolds number Re = L/eta sup(4/3), where L = ETA alpha sup (1/2) the largest eddy scale, H is the nebula gas vertical scale height, and α the nebula turbulent viscosity parameter, and η is the Kolmogorov or smallest scale in turbulence (typically about 1km), with eddy turnover time tη. In the nebula, Re is far larger than any numerical simulation can handle, so some physical model is needed to extend the results of numerical simulations to nebula conditions.

protoplanetary nebula↗
NASA NTRS1981

Procedures for analysis of spatial relationships among ship survey data and sea surface temperature

The establishment of a limited spatial data base for the U.S. eastern seaboard vicinity is discussed along with the demonstration of computer assisted analysis techniques for investigating spatial patterns and relationships among ship survey data and remotely sensed sea surface temperature. Ship survey variables included concentrations of two zooplankton, two icthyoplankton, and two fish species, in addition to physical data of depth to bottom and surface and bottom water temperatures. Continuous spatial distributions of these data were created by both weighted nearest neighbor and iterative smoothing interpolation techniques. Maps of surface water temperature were created by digitizing GOES satellite images. All mapped data were spatially registered by conversion of latitude and longitude coordinates to rotated Lambert conic conformal rectilinear coordinates and stored in grid format of approximately one hundred square kilometers per cell. The analysis of these data include the generation of statistical summaries and maps describing the joint occurrence among variables.

Berry, J. K.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Does The Nile Reflect Solar Variability?

Historical records of the Nile water level provide a unique opportunity to investigate the possibility that solar variability influences the Earth's climate. Particularly important are the annual records of the water level, which are uninterrupted for the years 622-1470 A.D. These records are non-stationary, so that standard spectral analyses cannot adequately characterize them. Here the Empirical Mode Decomposition technique, which is designed to deal with nonstationary, nonlinear time series, becomes useful. It allows the identification of two characteristic time scales in the water level data that can be linked to solar variability: the 88 year period and a time scale of about 200 years. These time scales are also present in the concurrent aurora data. Auroras are driven by coronal mass ejections and the rate of auroras is an excellent proxy for solar variability. Analysis of auroral data contemporaneous with the Nile data shows peaks at 88 years and about 200 years. This suggests a physical link between solar variability and the low frequency variations of the Nile water level. The link involves the influence of solar variability on the North Annual Mode of atmospheric variability and its North Atlantic and Indian Oceans patterns that affect rainfall over Eastern Equatorial Africa where the Nile originates.

statistical methods↗