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At least 865 records · Page 48

Intensive and extensive margins of the peak load: Measuring adaptation with mixed frequency panel data

In this work we investigate the response of daily electricity peak load to daily maximum temperatures across states in Europe and India. We propose a method that decomposes short- from medium/long-run effects, retains the high frequency nature of the load-weather covariation and treats economic growth as a modulating factor. By simultaneously exploiting variation in unexpected daily weather anomalies and decade-long climatic changes in each location we decompose transitory - intensive margin - adjustments from permanent - extensive margin - adjustments. We find that the shocks over the long-run differ substantially from the short-run dynamics. Furthermore, we find evidence that per capita income modulates the adjustments over the short- and long-run. We project that in response to climate change around 2050 the peak load may increase by up to 20%-30% in Southern Europe and in several states in India, depending on the degree of warming and the evolution of socio-economic conditions. Even with a limited scope to two world regions, we identify that the structure of the economy and differences in future income growth matter in shaping the adaptation to climate change. Our decomposition allows to identify how future weather anomalies can further amplify the relative increase associated to the shift in the climate norm. Assuming that the interannual variability of maximum temperatures follows the distribution observed in the past, we find a doubling of the impacts of climate change during the summer in Europe. Uncertainty around the distribution of future weather anomalies may lead to further unexpected peak load amplifications. Our results have important policy implications for power systems’ generation capacity, transmission and storage, as we show that the challenges to accommodate the peak load in days with extreme temperatures may substantially increase already around mid-century.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Shock Hugoniot calculations using on-the-fly machine learned force fields with ab initio accuracy

We present a framework for computing the shock Hugoniot using on-the-fly machine learned force field (MLFF) molecular dynamics simulations. In particular, we employ an MLFF model based on the kernel method and Bayesian linear regression to compute the free energy, atomic forces, and pressure, in conjunction with a linear regression model between the internal and free energies to compute the internal energy, with all training data generated from Kohn–Sham density functional theory (DFT). We verify the accuracy of the formalism by comparing the Hugoniot for carbon with recent Kohn–Sham DFT results in the literature. In so doing, we demonstrate that Kohn–Sham calculations for the Hugoniot can be accelerated by up to two orders of magnitude, while retaining ab initio accuracy. We apply this framework to calculate the Hugoniots of 14 materials in the FPEOS database, comprising 9 single elements and 5 compounds, between temperatures of 10 kK and 2 MK. We find good agreement with first principles results in the literature while providing tighter error bars. In addition, we confirm that the inter-element interaction in compounds decreases with temperature.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Transmitted wave measurements in cold sprayed materials under dynamic compression

Spray-formed materials have complex microstructures which pose challenges for microscale and mesoscale modeling. To constrain these models, experimental measurements of wave profiles when subjecting the material to dynamic compression are necessary. The use of a gas gun to launch a shock into a material is a traditional method to understand wave propagation and provide information of time-dependent stress variations due to complex microstructures. This data contains information on wave reverberations within a material and provides a boundary condition for simulation. Here we present measurements of the wavespeed and wave profile at the rear surface of tantalum, niobium, and a tantalum/niobium blend subjected to plate impact. Measurements of the Hugoniot elastic limit are compared to previous work and wavespeeds are compared to longitudinal sound velocity measurements to examine wave damping due to the porous microstructure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Project DarkStar: Vision for LLNL in 2030

DarkStar was a Strategic Initiative (FY2021-FY2024) to investigate applications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) to scientific problems of complex hydrodynamics, shockwave physics and energetic materials. The research focused on physics and engineering design as a process that can be tremendously accelerated through merging AI with advanced physics simulation on exascale-class platforms, and to experimentally validate this revolutionary new approach through dynamic materials campaigns. A central thread of scientific inquiry was in the application of AI to enable human understanding of how to control hydrodynamic instability (which has impacts to areas such as inertial confinement fusion) via engineering features and time-dependent sources. Motivated by an unfinished line of research started by Dr. Johnny von Neumann, AI-enabled simulation approaches were developed that allowed DarkStar researchers to uncover several ground-breaking discoveries regarding hydrodynamic instability, including how to completely suppress Richtmyer-Meshkov instability (RMI). These S&T discoveries, along with other advances, have shown the way for an entirely new approach to time-dependent problems known as inverse design – the idea that complex systems can be developed directly from a final state that is to be achieved and resolve the initial design via satisfying several constraints simultaneously via AI/ML. Through experimental campaigns conducted across a wide range of facilities in the NNSA complex (the High Explosive Application Facility at LLNL, the Dynamic Compression Sector/Advanced Photon Source at Argonne National Lab, and Special Technologies Laboratory at MSTS) the radical new AI/ML approach to engineering complex material dynamics was verified, establishing a new field of study within the realm of shock physics. As advanced manufacturing capabilities continue to develop, the great importance of inverse design as a means to apply that technology effectively for NNSA missions will feature prominently over this decade. DarkStar has positioned NNSA as a world-leader in this newly emerging cross-disciplinary area of AI methods for advanced physics simulation and pioneered multiple novel approaches that have enabled the broader scientific community. By allowing us to see past the horizon, to 2030 and beyond, DarkStar has illuminated the vast potential of AI/ML to impact a wide range of new national security missions and, consequently, multiple areas of further research have already emerged across the NNSA and DOD complex.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Implementation of Chemistry in the Athena++ Code

Chemistry plays a key role in many aspects of astrophysical fluids. Atoms and molecules are agents for heating and cooling, determine the ionization fraction, serve as observational tracers, and build the molecular foundation of life. We present the implementation of a chemistry module in the publicly available magnetohydrodynamic code Athena++ . We implement several chemical networks and heating and cooling processes suitable for simulating the interstellar medium (ISM). A general chemical network framework in the KIDA format is also included, allowing users to easily implement their own chemistry. Radiation transfer and cosmic-ray ionization are coupled with chemistry and solved with the simple six-ray approximation. The chemical and thermal processes are evolved as a system of coupled ordinary differential equations with an implicit solver from the CVODE library. We perform and present a series of tests to ensure the numerical accuracy and convergence of the code. Many tests combine chemistry with gas dynamics, including comparisons with analytic solutions, 1D problems of the photodissociation regions and shocks, and realistic 3D simulations of the turbulent ISM. We release the code with the new public version of Athena++ , aiming to provide a robust and flexible code for the astrochemical simulation community.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Bridging the Bondi and Event Horizon Scales: 3D GRMHD Simulations Reveal X-shaped Radio Galaxy Morphology

X-shaped radio galaxies (XRGs) produce misaligned X-shaped jet pairs and make up ≲10% of radio galaxies. XRGs are thought to emerge in galaxies featuring a binary supermassive black hole (SMBH), SMBH merger, or large-scale ambient medium asymmetry. We demonstrate that XRG morphology can naturally form without such special, preexisting conditions. Our 3D general-relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulation for the first time follows magnetized rotating gas from outside the SMBH sphere of influence of radius RB to the SMBH of gravitational radius Rg at the largest scale separation, RB/Rg = 103, to date. Initially, our axisymmetric system of constant-density hot gas contains a weak vertical magnetic field and rotates in the equatorial plane of a rapidly spinning SMBH. We seed the gas with small-scale 2% level pressure perturbations. Infalling gas forms an accretion disk, and the SMBH launches relativistically magnetized collimated jets reaching well outside RB. Under the pressure of the infalling gas, the jets intermittently turn on and off, erratically wobble, and inflate pairs of cavities in different directions, resembling an X-shaped jet morphology. Synthetic X-ray images reveal multiple pairs of jet-powered shocks and cavities. Large-scale magnetic flux accumulates on the SMBH, becomes dynamically important, and leads to a magnetically arrested disk state. The SMBH accretes at 2% of the Bondi rate ($\dot{M}\simeq 2.4\times {10}^{-3}{M}_{\odot }\,{\mathrm{yr}}^{-1}$ for M87*) and launches twin jets at η = 150% efficiency. These jets are powerful enough (P jets ≃ 2 × 10 44 erg s -1 ) to escape along the SMBH spin axis and end the short-lived intermittent jet state, whose transient nature can account for the rarity of XRGs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Impact melt generation and transport

The results from the first two calculations in a series of continuum mechanics computer code calculations, investigating the effects of variations in impactor mass and velocity on the generation and transport of impact melt, are reported. In the present calculations, the impactor is modeled as a spherical iron projectile with a mass of one trillion grams, and the target as a gabbroic anorthosite (GA) half-space, where the cases calculated have impact velocities of 5 and 15.8 km/sec. Early-time ejection velocities are 1-2 km/sec in both cases. The first calculation results in 0.07 projectile masses of GA being partly or completely melted, with all the melted GA being ejected from the crater, and a maximum impact range for the ejected melted material of 30 km. The second calculation yields 10.4 projectile masses of melted GA, 50% of which is ejected from the crater to ranges of up to about 130 km. Peak shock pressure attenuation with depth is reported for both cases, and transient cavity dynamics are described and compared to that for surface and near-surface explosions.

Orphal, D. L.↗

The effects of gusts on the fluctuating airloads of airfoils in transonic flow

Unsteady interactions of distributed and sharp-edged gusts with a stationary airfoil have been analyzed in two-dimensional transonic flow.A simple method of introducing such disturbances has been numerically implemented within the framework of unsteady, transonic small-disturbance theory. Representative solutions for various airfoils subjected to chordwise and transverse gusts show that the strength and unsteady motion of the shock wave on the airfoil significantly affect the flowfield development and, consequently, the dynamic airloads. Also a study was made of the reductions in the unsteady airloads that can be achieved by the proper active control motion of a trailing-edge flap, and a simple gust-alleviation strategy was developed. However, the chordwise pressure distributions associated with gusts are very different from those produced by trailing-edge flap oscillations. Consequently, the fluctuating lift and the unsteady pitching moments cannot both be eliminated simultaneously.

Mccroskey, W. J.↗

Overset grids in compressible flow

Numerical experiments have been performed to investigate the importance of boundary data handling with overset grids in computational fluid dynamics. Experience in using embedded grid techniques in compressible flow has shown that shock waves which cross grid boundaries become ill defined and convergence is generally degraded. Numerical boundary schemes were studied to investigate the cause of these problems and a viable solution was generated using the method of characteristics to define a boundary scheme. The model test problem investigated consisted of a detached shock wave on a 2-dimensional Mach 2 blunt, cylindrical body.

Eberhardt, S.↗

Evolution and interaction of large interplanetary streams

A computer simulation for the evolution and interaction of large interplanetary streams based on multi-spacecraft observations and an unsteady, one-dimensional MHD model is presented. Two events, each observed by two or more spacecraft separated by a distance of the order of 10 AU, were studied. The first simulation is based on the plasma and magnetic field observations made by two radially-aligned spacecraft. The second simulation is based on an event observed first by Helios-1 in May 1980 near 0.6 AU and later by Voyager-1 in June 1980 at 8.1 AU. These examples show that the dynamical evolution of large-scale solar wind structures is dominated by the shock process, including the formation, collision, and merging of shocks. The interaction of shocks with stream structures also causes a drastic decrease in the amplitude of the solar wind speed variation with increasing heliocentric distance, and as a result of interactions there is a large variation of shock-strengths and shock-speeds. The simulation results shed light on the interpretation for the interaction and evolution of large interplanetary streams. Observations were made along a few limited trajectories, but simulation results can supplement these by providing the detailed evolution process for large-scale solar wind structures in the vast region not directly observed. The use of a quantitative nonlinear simulation model including shock merging process is crucial in the interpretation of data obtained in the outer heliosphere.

Whang, Y. C.↗

The interaction of quasiperpendicular shock waves in a collisionless plasma

The interaction between collisionless shocks is examined from a kinetic viewpoint using computer simulations of shock collisions spanning the range of ambient plasma and shock parameters typical of the interplanetary medium. It is found that the interaction between two subcritical, perpendicular shocks is largely fluidlike with no evidence for accelerated particles. The electromagnetic fields associated with each shock, but not the plasmas, pass through each other during the collision. This interaction is due to self-consistently generated electric fields which adjust to the value needed to bring to rest the two incoming streams. The interaction between two supercritical perpendicular collisionless shocks is similar to the subcritical case, in that the electromagnetic fields associated with each shock are transmitted whereas particles are not. However, the interaction is also highly dynamic with substantial acceleration of ions. Increasing the Mach number gives rise to an increasing number of energetic particles.

Cargill, P. J.↗

The P1-RKDG method for two-dimensional Euler equations of gas dynamics

A class of nonlinearly stable Runge-Kutta local projection discontinuous Galerkin (RKDG) finite element methods for conservation laws is investigated. Two dimensional Euler equations for gas dynamics are solved using P1 elements. The generalization of the local projections, which for scalar nonlinear conservation laws was designed to satisfy a local maximum principle, to systems of conservation laws such as the Euler equations of gas dynamics using local characteristic decompositions is discussed. Numerical examples include the standard regular shock reflection problem, the forward facing step problem, and the double Mach reflection problem. These preliminary numerical examples are chosen to show the capacity of the approach to obtain nonlinearly stable results comparable with the modern nonoscillatory finite difference methods.

Cockburn, Bernardo↗

A case study of transient event motion in the magnetosphere and in the ionosphere

We present a case study of the magnetospheric and ionospheric response to a series of repetitive (7-8 min) solar wind dynamic pressure and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength variations generated at the bow shock. During a period of duskward and antisunward IMF orientation, the magnetospheric and ionospheric observations indicate transient events moving dawnward and duskward away from a point of origin at or after local noon. In contrast, during a subsequent period of dawnward and antisunward IMF orientation, the observations indicate events moving duskward away from a point of origin at or prior to 0900 LT. We consider explanations in terms of pressure pulse driven riplets on the magnetopause or directly driven bursts of antiparallel merging.

Korotova, G. I.↗

Utilitarian models of the solar nebula

Models of the primitive solar nebula based on a combination of theory, observations of T Tauri stars, and global conservation laws are presented. The models describe the motions of nebular gas, mixing of interstellar material during the formation of the nebula, and evolution of thermal structure in terms of several characteristic parameters. The parameters describe key aspects of the protosolar cloud (its rotation rate and collapse rate) and the nebula (its mass relative to the Sun, decay time, and density distribution). For most applications, the models are heuristic rather than predicted. Their purpose is to provide a realistic context for the interpretation of solar system data, and to distinquish those nebular characteristics that can be specified with confidence, independently of the assumtions of particular models, form those that are poorly constrained. It is demonstrated that nebular gas typically experienced large radial excursions during the evolution of the nebula and that both inward and outward mean radial velocities on the order of meters per second occured in the terrestrial planet region, with inward velocities predominant for most ofthe evolution. However, the time history of disk size, surface density, and radial velocities are sensitive to the total angular momentun of the protosolar cloud, which cannot be constrained by purely theoretical considerations.It is shown that a certain amount of 'formational' mixing of interstellar material was an inevitable consequenc of nebular mass and angular momentum transport during protostellar collapse, regardless of the specific transport mechanisms invloved. Even if the protosolar cloud was initially homogeneous, this mixing was important because it had the effect of mingling presolar material that had experienced different degrees of thermal processing during collapse and passage through the accertion shock. Nebular thermal structure is less sensitive to poorly constrained parameters than is dynamical history. A simple criterion is derived for the condition that silicate grains are evaporated at midplane, and it is argued that this condition was probably fulfilled early in nebular history. Cooling of a hot nebula due tocoagulation of dust and consequent local reduction of optical depth is examined, and it is shown how such a process leads naturally to an enrichment of rock-forming elements in the gas phase.

Cassen, Patrick↗

[?]Nonlinear Issues in the Aerothermochemistry of Gases and Materials and the Associated Physics and Dynamics of Interfaces

Our research and technology are focused on nonlinear issues in the aerothermochemistry of gases and materials and the associated physics and dynamics of interfaces. Our program is now organized to aggressively support the NASA Aeronautics Enterprise so as to: (a) develop a new generation of environmentally compatible, economic subsonic aircraft; (b) develop the technology base for an economically viable and environmentally compatible high-speed civil transport; (c) develop the technology options for new capabilities in high-performance aircraft; (d) develop hypersonic technologies for air-breathing flight; and (e) develop advanced concepts, understanding of physical phenomena, and theoretical, experimental, and computational tools for advanced aerospace systems. The implications from our research for aeronautical and aerospace technology have been both broad and deep. For example, using advanced computational techniques, we have determined exact solutions for the Schrodinger equation in electron-molecule scattering allowing us to evaluate atmospheric models important to reentry physics. We have also found a new class of exact solutions for the Navier Stokes equations. In experimental fluid dynamics, we have found explicit evidence of turbulence modification of droplet sizes in shock tube flow with condensation. We have developed a new diagnostic tool for the direct estimation of flow velocities at MHz sampling rates in quasi-one dimensional turbulent flow. This procedure suggests an unexpected confirmation of the possibility of 'natural' closure in Reynolds stresses with deep implications for the development of turbulent models. A transient increase is observed in both the spectral energy decay rate and the degree of chaotic complexity at the interface of a shock wave and a turbulent ionized gas. Even though the gas is apparently brought to rest by the shock wave, no evidence is found either of the expected relaminarization. A unique diamond-shaped nozzle has been designed for a detailed investigation of the effect of significant streamwise vorticity on the acoustic and IR characteristics of supersonic jets. Our results provide convincing evidence of the significant effect of vorticity on the far-field noise for the diamond jet as compared to the conventional round jets. We have found that the countercurrent shear layer mixes much more efficiently than conventional coflowing shear layers. We also developed the fluid thrust vectoring procedures which use counter flow to vector a jet. Our materials research has shown that the steep stress gradients at the fiber-matrix interface could be the primary cause of interface cracks after the processing of metallic and intermetallic matrix composites. New techniques have been evolved for: the microcharacterization of materials including microplastic strain and, point by point, the misorientation and plasticity for matrix composites; thermally induced stress measurements and load relaxation; the growth and characterization of metallic matrix composite interfaces; and for the growth of ferrite materials by pulsed laser deposition. The FAMU commitment to the HBCU Research Center also continues to be broad and deep.

Johnson, Joseph A., III↗

Radio Tracking of a White-Light CME from Solar Corona to Interplanetary Medium

We analyze the radio emissions associated with a flare/CME event on the sun. For this solar event there were type II radio emissions observed in both the metric and decametric to kilometric wavelength regimes. By comparing the dynamics of the CME with that implied by the frequencies and frequency-drift rates of the type II radio emissions, it is concluded that only the decametric/kilometric type II radio emissions are associated with the CME. We provide the first direct one-to-one comparison between a CME and the associated type II radio emissions. The dynamics implied by the metric type II radio emissions suggest a distinct coronal shock, associated with the flare, which only produces radio emissions in the low corona.

Reiner, M. J.↗

Magnetized Plasma Expansion and its Interaction with a Plasma Stream

Expansion of magnetized plasma in the magnetic field of a solenoid is studied by means of simulations using a 3-dimensional hybrid code. The plasma expands against a high- density and slow plasma stream (PS). The expansion causes inflation of the magnetic field; near the solenoid the magnetic field variation with increasing distance (r) remains as B(alpha)r(sup -3), but at farther distances B(alpha)r(sup -p), where the exponent p is found in the range 0.5 approx. less than p approx. less than 1.2 forming a plateau in the magnetic field distribution B(r). At the start of injection of plasma from the ends of the solenoid, the PS interacts with the solenoid magnetic field and creates a bow shock at a distance where the Larmor radius (r(sub il)) of the PS ions in the solenoid magnetic field nearly equals the scale length (L) of B(r), that is, r(sub il) approx. L = (B(sup -1)dB L /dr)(sup -1). As the injected plasma accumulates in the solenoid magnetic field, it expands inflating the magnetic field and the bow shock moves outward. The speed of the expansion front and the shock progressively decreases and eventually a stand-off occurs when the PS dynamic pressure is eventually balanced by the magnetic and kinetic pressures of the expanding plasma and the inflating magnetic field. The inflating field shows wave-like behavior, with considerable structures in the field and current distributions.

Singh, Nagendra↗