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At least 865 records · Page 48

COMSOL Results for the Nominal Steady-State Operation of the Proposed 95-MW LEU Silicide Core for HFIR Conversion

Engineering design studies are being performed to determine the feasibility of converting the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) from highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This activity is sponsored by the Office of Reactor Conversion and Uranium Supply (ORCUS) under the auspices of the US Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration’s Office of Material Management and Minimization. HFIR is a very high flux, pressurized, light water–cooled and moderated, flux trap–type research reactor with a core made of involute shaped U 3 O 8 /Al cermet fuel plates and coolant channels. HFIR currently operates at a thermal power of 85 MW and supports key national and international missions in neutron scattering, isotope production, materials/fuels irradiation, neutron activation analysis, gamma irradiation, and neutrino research. Advanced multiphysics computational fluid dynamics models have been developed in the COMSOL Multiphysics software to simulate the steady-state operating conditions for the proposed low-and high-density LEU U 3 Si 2 -Al (uranium silicide dispersion) fuel designs. The COMSOL models for HFIR inner and outer fuel element models incorporate various essential inputs and physics such as spatially dependent nuclear heat deposition, multilayer heat conduction, conjugate heat transfer, turbulent flows (using Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes turbulence models), structural mechanics (thermal–structural interactions and fuel swelling), and oxide layer build-up. This report presents the best-estimate thermal hydraulics results for the low- and high-density optimized silicide LEU core designs at 95 MW steady-state nominal operation.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Spectral Effects of Varying Texture and Composition in Two-component “Mudpie” Simulations: Insights for Asteroid (101955) Bennu

Data returned by the OSIRIS-REx (Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security–Regolith Explorer) spacecraft have shown that asteroid (101955) Bennu has a globally low-albedo surface covered in boulders with diverse texture, color, and albedo properties, and an aqueously altered composition dominated by phyllosilicates. To test whether Bennu’s color and albedo diversity could be caused by texture and/or composition variations, we performed a laboratory-based study using simple two-component mixtures (called “mudpies”) of the phyllosilicate saponite and carbon-rich opaques. Each mudpie is prepared in four different textures: fine powder, coarse particles, sanded slab, and textured rock. We find that a sanded slab made from 90% saponite and 10% lampblack is a good analog for Bennu, and the color and albedo changes due to texture variations are substantial. At 550 nm, texture changes alone can create up to 36% brightness contrast, and in color measured as a 473 nm/847 nm ratio, texture changes can provide up to 18% color contrast. In comparison, Bennu shows approximately 25% albedo and <1% color contrasts from boulder type to boulder type. These findings suggest that if texture contributes to color on Bennu, the texture variations are typically more subtle than what we simulated in the laboratory. According to our study, the color and albedo properties of different boulder types on Bennu are consistent with different concentrations of carbon-rich opaques (and possibly consistent with variations in carbonate concentration). The variations within each boulder group are consistent with textural differences.

Antara Sen↗

Enabling Design Space Exploration for RISC-V Secure Compute Environments

Cycle-level architectural simulation of Trusted Execution Environments (TEEs) can enable extensive design space exploration of these secure architectures. Existing architectural simulators which support TEEs are either based on hardware-level implementations or abstract analytic models. In this paper, we describe the implementation of the gem5 models necessary to run and evaluate the RISC- V-based open source TEE, Keystone, and we discuss how this simulation environment opens new avenues for designing and studying these trusted environments. We show that the Keystone simulations on gem5 exhibit similar performance as the previous hardware evaluations of Keystone. We also describe three simple example use cases (understanding the reason of trusted execution slowdown, performance of memory encryption, and micro-architecture impact on trusted execution performance) to demonstrate how the ability to simulate TEEs can provide useful information about their behavior in the existing form and also with enhanced designs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Challenges and Strategies for Testing Automation Practices at Sandia National Laboratories

Sandia National Laboratories is a premier United States national security laboratory which develops science-based technologies in areas such as nuclear deterrence, energy production, and climate change. Computing plays a key role in its diverse missions, and within that environment, Research Software Engineers (RSEs) and other scientific software developers utilize testing automation to ensure quality and maintainability of their work. We conducted a Participatory Action Research study to explore the challenges and strategies for testing automation through the lens of academic literature. Through the experiences collected and comparison with open literature, we identify these challenges in testing automation and then present strategies for mitigation grounded in evidence-based practice and experience reports that other, similar institutions can assess for their automation needs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Godiva IV Burst Reproducibility and Diagnostic Testing

Godiva IV is a fast burst critical assembly located at the Nation Criticality Experiment Research Center (NCERC) in the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). It is constructed of approximately 65 kg of highly enriched uranium (HEU) fuel alloyed with 1.5% molybdenum for strength. The assembly can be operated at delayed critical or can be used to perform super-prompt critical bursts with temperature rises of up to 250 °C. Several projects with the objective of characterizing Go diva IV are ongoing including characterizations of its radiation emission and thermomechanics. One of the characterization projects is a study of the variability in the relative source emission (or fluence in absolute terms) between bursts that are nominally the same size. There is some inherent variation in the number of fissions, or "size" of the burst, even for bursts where the operators perform identical processes. The source of the variation can be attributed to several factors. The largest contributor is the precision with which the operators are able to determine delayed critical (DC). Operators find DC for every burst operation. The impact of being slightly above or below DC can change the super-prompt critical reactivity and therefore the source term. The temperature of the fuel is another factor. Establishing delayed critical prior to performing a burst act as a control of the bulk temperature coefficient of reactivity.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Update on Nuclear Energy Projects and Plans in Ukraine (Meeting Report)

Following the 1986 disastrous accident at Chernobyl, gaining independence following the fall of the former Soviet Union, two revolutions, and on-going Russian intervention, Ukrainea is seeking to expand its use of commercial nuclear energy and to further reduce its dependence on Russia for energy. Nuclear energy in Ukraine has made a significant contribution toward achieving sustainable development and social goals. Ukraine is very vulnerable to the effects of climate change and nuclear is a cornerstone of the country’s effort to combat the effects. With broad support from the U.S. government, Ukraine is cooperating with the U.S. on fresh nuclear fuel supply, civilian nuclear security, outage optimization, spent fuel storage, and future nuclear technology. And is looking to tap U.S. expertise on plant management, and electric grid operations and expansion. NEIc hosted this virtual event to provide an update on nuclear energy projects and plans in Ukraine. Featured speakers included Yaroslav Demchenkov, Deputy Minister of Energy, Taras Kachka, Deputy Minister – Trade Representative, Petro Kotin, CEO, Energoatom,d and Ann K. Ganzer, Senior Bureau Official, Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation, U.S. Dept. of State. Maria Korsnick, NEI CEO, moderated the discussion. About forty individuals attended representing the Ukraine and U.S. governments, and U.S. suppliers.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Mars Sample Return Using Commercial Capabilities: Mission Architecture Overview

Mars Sample Return (MSR) is the highest priority science mission for the next decade as recommended by the recent Decadal Survey of Planetary Science. This paper presents an overview of a feasibility study for an MSR mission. The objective of the study was to determine whether emerging commercial capabilities can be used to reduce the number of mission systems and launches required to return the samples, with the goal of reducing mission cost. We report the feasibility of a complete and closed MSR mission design using the following scenario that covers three synodic launch opportunities, beginning with the 2022 opportunity: A Falcon Heavy injects a SpaceX Red Dragon capsule and trunk onto a Trans Mars Injection (TMI) trajectory. The capsule is modified to carry all the hardware needed to return samples collected on Mars including a Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV), an Earth Return Vehicle (ERV), and hardware to transfer a sample collected in a previously landed rover mission to the ERV. The Red Dragon descends to land on the surface of Mars using Super Sonic Retro Propulsion (SSRP). After previously collected samples are transferred to the ERV, the single-stage MAV launches the ERV from the surface of Mars. The MAV uses a storable liquid bi-propellant propulsion system to deliver the ERV to a Mars phasing orbit. After a brief phasing period, the ERV, which also uses a storable bi-propellant system, performs a Trans Earth Injection (TEI) burn. Upon arrival at Earth, the ERV performs Earth and lunar swing-bys and is placed into a lunar trailing circular orbit - an Earth orbit, at lunar distance. A later mission, using Dragon and launched by a Falcon Heavy, performs a rendezvous with the ERV in the lunar trailing orbit, retrieves the sample container and breaks the chain of contact with Mars by transferring the sample into a sterile and secure container. With the sample contained, the retrieving spacecraft makes a controlled Earth re-entry preventing any unintended release of pristine martian materials into the Earth's biosphere. The analysis methods employed standard and specialized aerospace engineering tools. Mission system elements were analyzed with either direct techniques or by using parametric mass estimating relationships (MERs). The architecture was iterated until overall mission convergence was achieved on at least one path. Subsystems analyzed in this study include support structures, power system, nose fairing, thermal insulation, actuation devices, MAV exhaust venting, and GN&C. Best practice application of loads, mass growth contingencies, and resource margins were used. For Falcon Heavy capabilities and Dragon subsystems we utilized publically available data from SpaceX, published analyses from other sources, as well as our own engineering and aerodynamic estimates. Earth Launch mass is under 11 mt, which is within the estimated capability of a Falcon Heavy, with margin. Total entry masses between 7 and 10 mt were considered with closure occurring between 9 and 10 mt. Propellant mass fractions for each major phase of the EDL - Entry, Terminal Descent, and Hazard Avoidance - have been derived. An assessment of the effect of the entry conditions on the thermal protection system (TPS), currently in use for Dragon missions, shows no significant stressors. A useful payload mass of 2.0 mt is provided and includes mass growth allowances for the MAV, the ERV, and mission unique equipment. We also report options for the MAV and ERV, including propulsion systems, crewed versus robotic retrieval mission, as well as direct Earth entry. International planetary protection policies as well as verifiable means of compliance will have a large impact on any MSR mission design. We identify areas within our architecture where such impacts occur. We also describe preliminary compliance measures that will be the subject of future work. This work shows that emerging commercial capabilities as well as new methodologies can be used to efficiently support an important planetary science objective. The work also has applications for human exploration missions that use propulsive EDL techniques

Red Dragon↗

Feasibility Study for a Subcritical Assembly at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory

A conceptual design has been completed for a new subcritical assembly at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). This subcritical assembly will support the Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP) training and education program to augment current subcritical assembly capabilities at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC). The proposed subcritical assembly uses legacy AGN-201M research reactor fuel plates that are available at the Y-12 National Security Complex. This subcritical assembly contains approximately 620 grams of 235 U as UO 2 particulates distributed homogeneously in radiation-stabilized polyethylene. The fuel plates will have a graphite neutron reflector to obtain a core multiplication, $M$, from 10 to 50, corresponding to a k eff of 0.9 to 0.95, respectively. The subcritical assembly will be able to support at least four experiments for the training courses: the addition of fissile material to increase neutron multiplication (mass), a core separation experiment (interaction), the effect of adding moderators to the core (moderation), and the effect of adding neutron absorbers to the core (poison/absorption). The proposed ORNL subcritical assembly will provide additional student bandwidth to support NCSP training courses and to provide for some backup capacity in the event that nuclear facility operations are disrupted at SNL or NCERC due to some unforeseen issue. The subcritical assembly will be designed to be an inherently safe subcritical assembly—subcritical under all normal and abnormal conditions—and it will provide the capability to conduct hands-on training to support NCSP and general nuclear criticality safety (NCS) staff training and qualification goals.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

The European wood pellets for heating market - Price developments, trade and market efficiency

Competitive international markets imply adjustments towards competitive spatial equilibrium in which excess from one market is transferred to another and prices are equilibrated except for remaining differences that can be assigned to transfer costs. The European market for wood pellets used in small-scale heating systems has been expanding significantly over the past decade. Small scale pellet heating is arguably a mature technology, but whether the market is mature is another question. In this paper we analyse recent data on trade flows and price developments between Italy, Austria, Germany and France to understand the developments of wood pellet market efficiency and to draw conclusions about market function. The objective of this study is to establish a framework to test the European residential wood pellet market for competitive spatial equilibrium using modern trade theory. We find mainly inefficiently integrated markets with remaining positive marginal profits and detectable arbitrageurs’ activity. Based on a thorough discussion of these findings and the underlying data we outline possible methodology advancements and list policy recommendations to secure access and affordability of this renewable heating commodity in the long run.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Opportunities for iron and steel industrial wastewater treatment and reuse in the United States

Concerns around water security in the United States have heightened the interest in industrial water treatment and reuse to improve water efficiency and operational reliability. Alongside nationwide efforts to expand industrial capacity, primary manufacturing sectors are adopting more resource-efficient technologies. This transition is expected to shift industrial water consumption patterns, driving the need for improved treatment and reuse practices. This study investigates opportunities for water use, treatment, and reuse in the iron and steel sector through a review of academic and industry literature and interviews with industry representatives. It identifies key challenges in water and wastewater management and outlines the conditions under which innovative treatment technologies could be deployed. Based on these insights, the study presents a practical water management action plan. Furthermore, it assesses water quality targets across different process operations, evaluates existing treatment technologies, and highlights challenges and opportunities for improvement relative to future performance expectations. Although water is often perceived as a low-cost commodity, industry feedback suggests that improvements in water use and treatment efficiency are typically prioritized only when they also reduce energy use, carbon emissions, or costs. This study advocates for a direct two-way partnership between industry and research audiences to bring their attention toward sustainable industrial water use, treatment, and reuse.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Load Margin Constrained Moving Target Defense against False Data Injection Attacks

Cyber physical security of power systems with high penetration of renewable generation has attracted attention from researchers. One critical issue is that cyber-physical attacks, disguised as uncertain renewable generation, can target conventional power system state estimation (SE). Moving target defense (MTD) is a promising defense strategy to detect stealthy false data injection (FDI) attacks against SE. However, all existing studies myopically perturb the reactance of transmission lines equipped with distributed flexible AC transmission system (D-FACTS) devices without adequately considering the system voltage stability. Exacerbated by the renewable generation uncertainty, existing MTD may cause voltage instability when the power grid is under stress. To address this issue, we propose a novel MTD framework that explicitly considers system voltage stability by using continuation power flow. We utilize the sensitivity matrix of power injection to line impedance, on which an optimization problem for maximizing load margin is formulated. This framework is validated on the IEEE 14-bus system and the IEEE 118-bus system, in which net load redistribution attacks are launched by sophisticated attackers. Steady-state simulations and dynamic simulations on PSS/E show the effectiveness of the proposed framework in circumventing the voltage instability while maintaining the detection effectiveness of MTD. The impact of the proposed method on attack detection effectiveness is also revealed.

Zhang, Hang↗

NASA Capture, Containment, and Return System: Bringing Mars Samples to Earth

The Capture, Containment, and Return System (CCRS) project is NASA’s last step in bringing back Mars samples. CCRS will close a decades-long multi-mission and multi-agency effort to bring Mars surface samples back to Earth for scientific studies. CCRS will launch in 2027 on the European Earth Return Orbiter (ERO) spacecraft, which will provide communications relay for the Mars Sample Return ground missions, Perseverance rover and the Sample Retrieval Lander (SRL) (to be launched in 2028). The main mission for CCRS begins when the first-ever orbital planetary capture operation occurs with CCRS catching and securing the Orbiting Sample (OS)in low Mars orbit. From this point, the system will perform additional "firsts": it will autonomously contain the OS with heat-shrink-fit, sterilize the outside surface, and assemble the Earth entry capsule, named Earth Entry System (EES), in orbit around Mars using a gantry mechanism. At approximately 2.8 Lunar distances from Earth, or 3-days from entry into Earth’s atmosphere, CCRS will open its micrometeoroid shield and release the EES on a ballistic trajectory to Earth. The EES is designed to be a fully passive system that will enter the atmosphere and land without parachute at the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR).

Mars mission, Sample return, Mission design↗

System for Secure Integration of Aviation Data

The Aviation Data Integration System (ADIS) of Ames Research Center has been established to promote analysis of aviation data by airlines and other interested users for purposes of enhancing the quality (especially safety) of flight operations. The ADIS is a system of computer hardware and software for collecting, integrating, and disseminating aviation data pertaining to flights and specified flight events that involve one or more airline(s). The ADIS is secure in the sense that care is taken to ensure the integrity of sources of collected data and to verify the authorizations of requesters to receive data. Most importantly, the ADIS removes a disincentive to collection and exchange of useful data by providing for automatic removal of information that could be used to identify specific flights and crewmembers. Such information, denoted sensitive information, includes flight data (here signifying data collected by sensors aboard an aircraft during flight), weather data for a specified route on a specified date, date and time, and any other information traceable to a specific flight. The removal of information that could be used to perform such tracing is called "deidentification." Airlines are often reluctant to keep flight data in identifiable form because of concerns about loss of anonymity. Hence, one of the things needed to promote retention and analysis of aviation data is an automated means of de-identification of archived flight data to enable integration of flight data with non-flight aviation data while preserving anonymity. Preferably, such an automated means would enable end users of the data to continue to use pre-existing data-analysis software to identify anomalies in flight data without identifying a specific anomalous flight. It would then also be possible to perform statistical analyses of integrated data. These needs are satisfied by the ADIS, which enables an end user to request aviation data associated with de-identified flight data. The ADIS includes client software integrated with other software running on flight-operations quality-assurance (FOQA) computers for purposes of analyzing data to study specified types of events or exceedences (departures of flight parameters from normal ranges). In addition to ADIS client software, ADIS includes server hardware and software that provide services to the ADIS clients via the Internet (see figure). The ADIS server receives and integrates flight and non-flight data pertaining to flights from multiple sources. The server accepts data updates from authorized sources only and responds to requests from authorized users only. In order to satisfy security requirements established by the airlines, (1) an ADIS client must not be accessible from the Internet by an unauthorized user and (2) non-flight data as airport terminal information system (ATIS) and weather data must be displayed without any identifying flight information. ADIS hardware and software architecture as well as encryption and data display scheme are designed to meet these requirements. When a user requests one or more selected aviation data characteristics associated with an event (e.g., a collision, near miss, equipment malfunction, or exceedence), the ADIS client augments the request with date and time information from encrypted files and submits the augmented request to the server. Once the user s authorization has been verified, the server returns the requested information in de-identified form.

Kulkarni, Deepak↗

Diurnal observations of basal stem CO2 efflux in three canopy dominant trees in the central Amazon

We explored mechanisms responsible for disturbance-induced shifts in carbon metabolism in forests north of Manaus, Brazil (S2º 38' 17", W60º 09' 25"), using data from a selective logging experiment (BIONTE). BIONTE (the BIOmass and NuTrient Experiment) selective logging treatments were initiated in the mid-1980s and comprised variable removal of commercial tree (not total) species basal area (T1 =32%, T2 = 42%, T3 = 69%), and control plots with no logging (T0). Raw data including tree base diameter (Db), CO2 concentration versus time inside a static stem chamber, and wood density were used to derive stem respiration rates (Rw), wood production rates (Pw), and wood carbon use efficiency (CUE). Changes in tree base diameter (Db; measured at 1.3 m height, or above the buttresses) was used to calculate wood production for individual trees (Pw). Wood density enabled calculation of stem growth rate in the same units as stem respiration (mmol C m-2 s-1). Four trees were randomly selected from five tree growth rate classes for each treatment block, for a total of 20 trees per treatment block, or 80 trees total from the BIONTE plots. Each of the 80 trees selected for the Rw study were outfitted with dendrometer bands (da Silva et al. 2002). Stem respiration was measured using the method described in Chambers et al. (2004). Briefly, an infra-red gas analyzer (LiCor 820) was operated as a closed dynamic chamber with a flow rate of 1.0 L min-1. Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) semi-cylindrical chambers (250–400 mL) were secured to the tree stem near the dendrometer bands using nylon straps. The measurement interval spanned 1–2 min, and the CO2 flux from the stem of each tree was quantified using the enclosed stem area and slope of the stem CO2 concentration versus time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling of Seismic Waves Through Geologic Metamaterials

This project conducted a modeling study on seismic invisibility cloaks that render geologic targets invisible to seismic waves, using the concept of seismic metamaterials. We present a parametric numerical study on the behaviors of seismic waves through cloaks with different design parameters as well as degrees of geologic heterogeneity. In addition, a seismic cloaking strategy is proposed for a future field-scale experiment at a real-world test bed. This feasibility study will guide future field experiment designs and ultimately allow us to conduct systematic field-scale tests employing Sandia’s existing resources and field expertise. The ultimate goal is to develop methods and design parameters of seismic invisibility cloaks to protect against natural and man-made seismic waves. Seismic cloaking has potential applications in several areas of national security, energy, and natural hazard reduction.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Radiological Recovery Logistics Tool - 20161

Argonne is building and testing a tool, the Radiological Recovery Logistics Tool (RRLT), that can be used during the response and recovery from a radiological or nuclear incident to effectively allocate appropriate commercial and public works equipment to mitigate, remove, and contain radiological contamination. The requirements for this tool - as well as development of the resulting software - is overseen by a steering committee of stakeholders from DHS's National Urban Security Technology Laboratory (NUSTL), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). One essential requirement is for RRLT to support the efficient and appropriate allocation of resources for a radiological response. Subsequent discussions between ANL and stakeholders have solidified the nature of this support to include identification of the types of resources to be allocated. The study reported in this paper has both factored fundamental concepts and connections out of this identification process and created a Knowledge Base detailing support goals, response scenarios, and efficacy information on dozens of equipment types. In short, RRLT will dynamically apply these findings to situational conditions surrounding contamination incidents. RRLT's Domain, the model of elements, ideas and relationships with which the tool will work, draws concepts from technical reports and stakeholder vocabularies to connect response goals and scenarios to types of equipment that offer utility towards those goals in those scenarios. RRLT's Knowledge Base will contain details on dozens of equipment types and facilitate the operator's discovery and consumption of these details most pertinent to a dynamically selected subset of goals. The core of its Domain Model is based on a report authored by this team. This report [1] contains a comprehensive list of proposed equipment to accomplish various missions or scenarios that might arise after a large-scale radiological contamination incident in an urban environment or critical infrastructure. The report divides potential response and recovery efforts into five support goals: Survey and monitoring of the contaminated area; Mitigation of received dose to first responders: Decontamination (gross and final) of buildings, vehicles, roadways, parks, and other surfaces: Waste management of solid waste generated during recovery operations: and Containment of wastewater and other waste generated during the response and recovery phases. RRLT's development is driven by use cases. A use case is an intention with which a user approaches the software. Use cases are grouped into delivery increments to schedule development, testing, and presentation to stakeholders. This model partitions the system into seven increments: User Arrival and Authentication, Search and Navigation, Equipment Recommendation, Plan Management, Content Management, and Expanded Access. Once a user 15 authenticated, RRLT will present the user with a dashboard that allows them to explore or search RRLT's content. The dashboard will also include a 'Plan' panel for collecting decisions and relevant observations about an incident at hand to facilitate development of an equipment list. RRLT will offer three general modes of access to items in the knowledge base: - Keyword search for direct discovery of items, - Navigation along predetermined paths from recovery goal towards equipment types, and - Interactive guidance towards equipment types by an autonomous software agent: the Equipment Recommendation Wizard. This presentation will detail progress in the development of the RRLT and also discuss opportunities for those interested in providing feedback on its content and functionality. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

High Energy Physics Network Requirements Review (Final Report, July-October 2020)

Throughout 2020, ESnet and the Office of High Energy Physics (HEP) of the DOE SC organized an ESnet requirements review of HEP-supported activities. Preparation for this event included identification of key stakeholders: program and facility management, research groups, technology providers, and a number of external observers. These individuals were asked to prepare formal case study documents about their relationship to the HEP program to build a complete understanding of the current, near-term, and long-term status, expectations, and processes that will support the science going forward. A series of pre-planning meetings better prepared case study authors for this task, along with guidance on how the review would proceed in a virtual fashion.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Reserves and Trade Jointly Determine Exposure to Food Supply Shocks

While a growing proportion of global food consumption is obtained through international trade, there is an ongoing debate on whether this increased reliance on trade benefits or hinders food security, and specifically, the ability of global food systems to absorb shocks due to local or regional losses of production. This paper introduces a model that simulates the short-term response to a food supply shock originating in a single country, which is partly absorbed through decreases in domestic reserves and consumption, and partly transmitted through the adjustment of trade flows. By applying the model to publicly-available data for the cereals commodity group over a 17 year period, we find that differential outcomes of supply shocks simulated through this time period are driven not only by the intensification of trade, but as importantly by changes in the distribution of reserves. Our analysis also identifies countries where trade dependency may accentuate the risk of food shortages from foreign production shocks; such risk could be reduced by increasing domestic reserves or importing food from a diversity of suppliers that possess their own reserves. This simulation-based model provides a framework to study the short-term, nonlinear and out-of-equilibrium response of trade networks to supply shocks, and could be applied to specific scenarios of environmental or economic perturbations.

supply↗