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NASA NTRS2003

Experiences with Testing the Largest Ground System NASA Has Ever Built

In the 1980s, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) embarked upon a major Earth-focused program called Mission to Planet Earth. The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) was selected to manage and develop a key component - the Earth Observing System (EOS). The EOS consisted of four major missions designed to monitor the Earth. The missions included 4 spacecraft. Terra (launched December 1999), Aqua (launched May 2002), ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite, launched January 2003), and Aura (scheduled for launch January 2004). The purpose of these missions was to provide support for NASA s long-term research effort for determining how human-induced and natural changes affect our global environment. The EOS Data and Information System (EOSDIS), a globally distributed, large-scale scientific system, was built to support EOS. Its primary function is to capture, collect, process, and distribute the most voluminous set of remotely sensed scientific data to date estimated to be 350 Gbytes per day. The EOSDIS is composed of a diverse set of elements with functional capabilities that require the implementation of a complex set of computers, high-speed networks, mission-unique equipment, and associated Information Technology (IT) software along with mission-specific software. All missions are constrained by schedule, budget, and staffing resources, and rigorous testing has been shown to be critical to the success of each mission. This paper addresses the challenges associated with the planning, test definition. resource scheduling, execution, and discrepancy reporting involved in the mission readiness testing of a ground system on the scale of EOSDIS. The size and complexity of the mission systems supporting the Aqua flight operations, for example, combined with the limited resources available, prompted the project to challenge the prevailing testing culture. The resulting success of the Aqua Mission Readiness Testing (MRT) program was due in no small measure to re-structuring the traditional programmatic and technical approach to a more efficient and robust program. Programmatically, it meant gaining the endorsement, commitment, and cooperation of the numerous subsystem element managers and other stakeholder organizations. Technically, it required an MRT program that was agile, could rapidly adapt to requirements changes, and was flexible in its overall approach. Furthermore, this paper addresses the following questions: 1. What are the key ingredients (e.g., test tools, organization) needed to conduct a successful MRT program? 2. What distinguishes EOS MRT from the traditional system testing approach? 3. Where should the focus of testing be since it is infeasible to test every element or subsystem? 4. How can MRT be applied effectively to other systems or missions? To provide answers to these questions, this paper relies heavily on real-life, hands-on experiences ("lessons learned") gained during mission readiness testing of the Terra ground system and, most recently, the Aqua and ICESat missions. Moreover, this paper explores how lessons learned were turned into lessons applied for the upcoming Aura mission. Although derived from the EOS missions, MRT techniques and strategies can be applied to enhance the testing of other missions.

Lehtonen, Ken↗
NASA NTRS2017

Characteristics of a high-power ion beam deflection system necessary to deflect the hypothetical asteroid 2017 PD

The July 2027 impact date for the hypothetical asteroid 2017 PDC, that is the subject of an emergency response exercise, leaves just over ten years to implement a deflection approach. The analyses herein allocates four years to the design, fabrication, assembly, test and launch of a notional high-power Ion Beam Deflection (IBD) vehicle to meet a launch readiness date no later than May 2021. Using this launch date along with estimates for the vehicle mass and performance characteristics of the electric propulsion system, low-thrust trajectory analyses indicate a 2.56-year flight time to rendezvous with 2017 PDC. This would leave 3.6 years to execute the actual deflection phase. A 160-kW IBD vehicle could deflect 2017 PDC by at least one Earth radius within this time provided the asteroid’s actual diameter was less than about 140 m and its density was 2 g/cm3 or less. Larger diameters and/or higher densities would require a higher power IBD vehicle, multiple IBD vehicles, or a longer deflection phase. Ion beam deflection is largely independent of the characteristics of the threat object, but its effectiveness, like all deflection approaches, is sensitive to both the asteroid mass and the time available for deflection. The characteristics of IBD, i.e., large standoff distance between the spacecraft and the asteroid surface, as well as ion beam divergence angles of a few degrees, facilitates the possible simultaneous use of multiple IBD vehicles to improve the performance and robustness of the asteroid deflection. The 65-cm diameter, 20-kW NEXIS ion thruster developed in support of the Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter mission concept is particularly well suited for application to a high-power IBD system. It has demonstrated an ion beam divergence angle of approximately 2 degrees and operation at 20 kW for over 2,000 hours. Completion of the development and flight qualification of this technology would significantly reduce the risk and time necessary to respond to the discovery of potentially hazardous asteroid in the size range of 50- to 100-m diameter.

Reeves, David↗
NASA NTRS2023

A Sensitive Search for Supernova Emission Associated with the Extremely Energetic and Nearby GRB 221009A

We report observations of the optical counterpart of the long gamma-ray burst GRB 221009A. Due to the extreme rarity of being both nearby (z = 0.151) and highly energetic (E ϒ,iso ≥ 10 54 erg), GRB 221009A offers a unique opportunity to probe the connection between massive star core collapse and relativistic jet formation across a very broad range of γ-ray properties. Adopting a phenomenological power-law model for the afterglow and host galaxy estimates from high-resolution Hubble Space Telescope imaging, we use Bayesian model comparison techniques to determine the likelihood of an associated supernova (SN) contributing excess flux to the optical light curve. Though not conclusive, we find moderate evidence (K Bayes =10 1.2 for the presence of an additional component arising from an associated SN, SN 2022xiw, and find that it must be substantially fainter (<67% as bright at the 99% confidence interval) than SN 1998bw. Given the large and uncertain line-of-sight extinction, we attempt to constrain the SN parameters (M Ni , M ej and E KE ) under several different assumptions with respect to the host galaxy's extinction. We find properties that are broadly consistent with previous GRB-associated SNe: M Ni = 0.05–0.25 M ⊙ , M ej = 3.5–11.1 M ⊙ , and E KE = (1.6–5.2) × 10 52 erg. We note that these properties are weakly constrained due to the faintness of the SN with respect to the afterglow and host emission, but we do find a robust upper limit on M Ni of M Ni < 0.36 M ⊙ . Given the tremendous range in isotropic gamma-ray energy release exhibited by GRBs (seven orders of magnitude), the SN emission appears to be decoupled from the central engine in these systems.

Core-collapse supernovae↗
NASA NTRS2014

Evaluating an Automated Approach for Monitoring Forest Disturbances in the Pacific Northwest from Logging, Fire and Insect Outbreaks with Landsat Time Series Data

Forests are the largest aboveground sink for atmospheric carbon (C), and understanding how they change through time is critical to reduce our C-cycle uncertainties. We investigated a strong decline in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 1982 to 1991 in Pacific Northwest forests, observed with the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) series of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRRs). To understand the causal factors of this decline, we evaluated an automated classification method developed for Landsat time series stacks (LTSS) to map forest change. This method included: (1) multiple disturbance index thresholds; and (2) a spectral trajectory-based image analysis with multiple confidence thresholds. We produced 48 maps and verified their accuracy with air photos, monitoring trends in burn severity data and insect aerial detection survey data. Area-based accuracy estimates for change in forest cover resulted in producer's and user's accuracies of 0.21 +/- 0.06 to 0.38 +/- 0.05 for insect disturbance, 0.23 +/- 0.07 to 1 +/- 0 for burned area and 0.74 +/- 0.03 to 0.76 +/- 0.03 for logging. We believe that accuracy was low for insect disturbance because air photo reference data were temporally sparse, hence missing some outbreaks, and the annual anniversary time step is not dense enough to track defoliation and progressive stand mortality. Producer's and user's accuracy for burned area was low due to the temporally abrupt nature of fire and harvest with a similar response of spectral indices between the disturbance index and normalized burn ratio. We conclude that the spectral trajectory approach also captures multi-year stress that could be caused by climate, acid deposition, pathogens, partial harvest, thinning, etc. Our study focused on understanding the transferability of previously successful methods to new ecosystems and found that this automated method does not perform with the same accuracy in Pacific Northwest forests. Using a robust accuracy assessment, we demonstrate the difficulty of transferring change attribution methods to other ecosystems, which has implications for the development of automated detection/attribution approaches. Widespread disturbance was found within AVHRR-negative anomalies, but identifying causal factors in LTSS with adequate mapping accuracy for fire and insects proved to be elusive. Our results provide a background framework for future studies to improve methods for the accuracy assessment of automated LTSS classifications.

Landsat↗
NASA NTRS2000

Acceptance Testing of a Satellite SCADA Photovoltaic-Diesel Hybrid System

Satellite Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) of a Photovoltaic (PV)/diesel hybrid system was tested using NASA's Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) and Ultra Small Aperture Terminal (USAT) ground stations. The setup consisted of a custom-designed PV/diesel hybrid system, located at the Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC), which was controlled and monitored at a "remote" hub via Ka-band satellite link connecting two 1/4 Watt USATs in a SCADA arrangement. The robustness of the communications link was tested for remote monitoring of the health and performance of a PV/diesel hybrid system, and for investigating load control and battery charging strategies to maximize battery capacity and lifetime, and minimize loss of critical load probability. Baseline hardware performance test results demonstrated that continuous two-second data transfers can be accomplished under clear sky conditions with an error rate of less than 1%. The delay introduced by the satellite (1/4 sec) was transparent to synchronization of satellite modem as well as to the PV/diesel-hybrid computer. End-to-end communications link recovery times were less than 36 seconds for loss of power and less than one second for loss of link. The system recovered by resuming operation without any manual intervention, which is important since the 4 dB margin is not sufficient to prevent loss of the satellite link during moderate to heavy rain. Hybrid operations during loss of communications link continued seamlessly but real-time monitoring was interrupted. For this sub-tropical region, the estimated amount of time that the signal fade will exceed the 4 dB margin is about 10%. These results suggest that data rates of 4800 bps and a link margin of 4 dB with a 1/4 Watt transmitter are sufficient for end-to-end operation in this SCADA application.

Kalu, A.↗
NASA NTRS2002

A National Program for Analysis of the Climate System

Perhaps the single greatest roadblock to fundamental advances in our understanding of climate variability and climate change is the lack of robust and unbiased long-term global observations of the climate system. Such observations are critical for the identification and diagnosis of climate variations, and provide the constraints necessary for developing and validating climate models. The first generation of reanalysis efforts, by using fixed analysis systems, eliminated the artificial climate signals that occurred in analyses generated at the operational numerical weather prediction centers. These datasets are now widely used by the scientific community in a variety of applications including atmosphere-ocean interactions, seasonal prediction, climate monitoring, the hydrological cycle, and a host of regional and other diagnostic studies. These reanalyses, however, had problems that made them sub-optimal or even unusable for some applications. Perhaps the most serious problem for climate applications was that, while the assimilation system remained fixed, changes in the observing systems did produce spurious changes in the perceived climate. The first generation reanalysis products also exposed problems with physical consistency of the products and the accurate representation of physical processes in the climate system. Examples are bias in the estimates of ocean surface fluxes, and inadequate representation of polar hydrology. In this talk, I will describe some initial plans for a national program on reananlysis. The program is envisioned to be part of an on-going activity to maintain, improve, and reprocess our record of climate observations. I will discuss various issues affecting the quality of reanalyses, with a special focus on those relevant to the ocean.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS2011

Reconciling Simulated and Observed Views of Clouds: MODIS, ISCCP, and the Limits or Instrument Simulators

The properties of clouds that may be observed by satellite instruments, such as optical depth and cloud top pressure, are only loosely related to the way clouds m-e represented in models of the atmosphere. One way to bridge this gap is through "instrument simulators," diagnostic tools that map the model representation to synthetic observations so that differences between simulator output and observations can be interpreted unambiguously as model error. But simulators may themselves be restricted by limited information available from the host model or by internal assumptions. This paper considers the extent to which instrument simulators are able to capture essential differences between MODIS and ISCCP, two similar but independent estimates of cloud properties. The authors review the measurements and algorithms underlying these two cloud climatologies, introduce a MODIS simulator, and detail data sets developed for comparison with global models using ISCCP and MODIS simulators, In nature MODIS observes less mid-level doudines!> than ISCCP, consistent with the different methods used to determine cloud top pressure; aspects of this difference are reproduced by the simulators running in a climate modeL But stark differences between MODIS and ISCCP observations of total cloudiness and the distribution of cloud optical thickness can be traced to different approaches to marginal pixels, which MODIS excludes and ISCCP treats as homogeneous. These pixels, which likely contain broken clouds, cover about 15 k of the planet and contain almost all of the optically thinnest clouds observed by either instrument. Instrument simulators can not reproduce these differences because the host model does not consider unresolved spatial scales and so can not produce broken pixels. Nonetheless, MODIS and ISCCP observation are consistent for all but the optically-thinnest clouds, and models can be robustly evaluated using instrument simulators by excluding ambiguous observations.

Ackerman, Steven A.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Joint cloud water path and rainwater path retrievals from airborne ORACLES observations

This study presents a new algorithm that combines W-band reflectivity measurements from the Airborne Precipitation Radar – third generation (APR-3) passive radiometric cloud optical depth and effective radius retrievals from the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) to estimate total liquid water path in warm clouds and identify the contributions from cloud water path (CWP) and rainwater path (RWP). The resulting CWP estimates are primarily determined by the optical depth input, although reflectivity measurements contribute ∼10 %–50 % of the uncertainty due to attenuation through the profile. Uncertainties in CWP estimates across all conditions are 25 % to 35 %, while RWP uncertainty estimates frequently exceed 100 %. Two-thirds of all radar-detected clouds observed during the ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES) campaign that took place from 2016–2018 over the southeast Atlantic Ocean have CWP between 41 and 168 g/sq. m and almost all CWPs (99 %) between 6 to 445 g/sq. m. RWP, by contrast, typically makes up a much smaller fraction of total liquid water path (LWP), with more than 70 % of raining clouds having less than 10 g/sq. m of rainwater. In heavier warm rain (i.e., rain rate exceeding 40 mm/h or 1000 mm/d), however, RWP is observed to exceed 2500 g/sq. m. CWP (RWP) is found to be approximately 30 g/sq. m (7 g/sq. m) larger in unstable environments compared to stable environments. Surface precipitation is also more than twice as likely in unstable environments. Comparisons against in situ cloud microphysical probe data spanning the range of thermodynamic stability and meteorological conditions encountered across the southeast Atlantic basin demonstrate that the combined APR-3 and RSP dataset enable a robust joint cloud–precipitation retrieval algorithm to support future ORACLES precipitation susceptibility and cloud–aerosol–precipitation interaction studies.

algorithm↗
NASA NTRS2019

Predicted Yield of Transits of Known Radial Velocity Exoplanets from the TESS Primary and Extended Missions

Radial velocity (RV) surveys have detected hundreds of exoplanets through their gravitational interactions with their host stars. Some will be transiting, but most lack sufficient follow-up observations to confidently detect (or rule out) transits. We use published stellar, orbital, and planetary parameters to estimate the transit probabilities for nearly all exoplanets that have been discovered via the RV method. From these probabilities, we predict that 25.5 (sup +0.7, sub -0.7) of the known RV exoplanets should transit their host stars. 'This prediction is more than double the amount of RV exoplanets that are currently known to transit The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) presents a valuable opportunity to explore the transiting nature of many of the known RV exoplanet systems. Based on the anticipated pointing of TESS during its two-year primary mission, we identify the known RV exoplanets that it will observe and predict that 11.7 (sup +0.3, sub -0.3) of them will have transits detected by TESS. However, we only expect the discovery of transits for ~3 of these exoplanets to be novel (i.e., not previously known). We predict that the TESS photometry will yield dispositive null results for the transits of ~ 125 RV exoplanets. This will represent a substantial increase in the effort to refine ephemerides of known RV exoplanets. We demonstrate that these results are robust to changes in the ecliptic longitudes of future TESS observing sectors. Finally, we consider how several potential TESS extended mission scenarios affect the number of transiting RV exoplanets we expect TESS to observe.

Thomas Barclay↗
NASA NTRS1990

Magnetism and superconductivity of some Tl-Cu oxides

Many copper oxide based Thallium compounds have now been discovered. In comparison to the Bi-compounds, the Tl-system shows a richer diversity; viz., High Temperature Superconductors (HTSC) can be obtained with either one or two Tl-0 layers (m = 1,2); also, the triple-digit phases are easier to synthesize. The value of d, oxygen stoichiometry, is critical to achieving superconductivity. The Tl system is robust to oxygen loss; Tl may be lost or incorporated by diffusion. A diffusion coefficient equal to 10 ms at 900 C was determined. Both ortho-rhombic and tetragonal structures are evidenced, but HTSC behavior is indifferent to the crystal symmetry. This system has the highest T(sub c) confirmed. T(sub c) generally increases with p, the number of CuO layers, but tends to saturate at p = 3. Zero resistance as high as 125K has been observed. Most of these HTSC's are hole type, but the Ce-doped specimens may be electronic. The magnetic aspects were studied; because in addition to defining the perfectly diamagnetic ground state as in the conventional superconductors, magnetism of the copper oxides show a surprising variety. This is true of both the normal and the superconducting states. Also, due to the large phonon contribution to the specific heat at the high T(sub c) accurate thermal measurement of important parameters such as the sp. heat jump, electronic density of states, D(Ef) and coherence length are uncertain, and thus, are estimated from the magnetic results. Results from the Tl-system CuO, LaBaCuO, 120 and the Bi-CuO compounds are discussed. The emphasis is on the role of magnetism in the TlCuO HTSC, but technological aspects are also pointed out.

Datta, Timir↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of A Simulation Environment for Future Space Traffic Management

This study presents initial results of a newly developed simulation environment intendedto explore and assess future Space Traffic Management (STM) scenarios. The number ofnew Resident Space Objects (RSOs) in near-Earth orbit is expected to increase significantlywith the expected future deployment of a number of large constellations. These futurescenarios involve the addition of many tens of thousands of new RSOs, making the analysisinto their impact on collision risk extend beyond what traditional data-mining of present-dayconjunction data can reliably predict. To address this, a robust simulation environment wasdeveloped that implements a full force-model for orbit propagation, and computes continuousall-on-all conjunction statistics for arbitrarily large catalog sizes and simulation timeframes.Collision avoidance and station-keeping maneuvers can be optionally implemented based onconfigurable user inputs including physical characteristics and spacecraft meta-data (e.g.,commercial/government, owner country, etc.). Constellation build-out and de-orbit scenarioswere also implemented and modeled based on real-data analysis. Validation of the simulationresults was a critical component of the simulation development, and was done using the currentcatalog with comparisons against both public and internal NASA data-sets. The comparisonsdemonstrate that, with the appropriate settings, representative levels of conjunction ratesand probabilities can be obtained, providing confidence that the simulation tool can generatemeaningful outcomes for test scenarios. As an initial demonstration of the tool’s capabilities,year-long simulations with station-keeping were conducted to examine conjunction historiesusing both the current object catalog (5800 active satellites) and a hypothetical 60,000 objectscenario involving five potential large constellations. Output metrics include the number ofconjunction events, estimates of collision consequence (fragmentation), delta-V maneuver costs,and the probability of at least one collision occurring. The results highlight the potential thatthe simulation tool has for incorporating and running performance comparisons between, e.g.,various sets of maneuver guidelines, industry norms, and definitions of risk, with the overallobjective of providing actionable data to STM policy makers. The presentation will providean overview of the simulation development and validation efforts, as well as a discussion ofobservations gathered from the initial simulations performed.

conjunction assessment↗
NASA NTRS2006

Real-Time Diagnosis of Faults Using a Bank of Kalman Filters

A new robust method of automated real-time diagnosis of faults in an aircraft engine or a similar complex system involves the use of a bank of Kalman filters. In order to be highly reliable, a diagnostic system must be designed to account for the numerous failure conditions that an aircraft engine may encounter in operation. The method achieves this objective though the utilization of multiple Kalman filters, each of which is uniquely designed based on a specific failure hypothesis. A fault-detection-and-isolation (FDI) system, developed based on this method, is able to isolate faults in sensors and actuators while detecting component faults (abrupt degradation in engine component performance). By affording a capability for real-time identification of minor faults before they grow into major ones, the method promises to enhance safety and reduce operating costs. The robustness of this method is further enhanced by incorporating information regarding the aging condition of an engine. In general, real-time fault diagnostic methods use the nominal performance of a "healthy" new engine as a reference condition in the diagnostic process. Such an approach does not account for gradual changes in performance associated with aging of an otherwise healthy engine. By incorporating information on gradual, aging-related changes, the new method makes it possible to retain at least some of the sensitivity and accuracy needed to detect incipient faults while preventing false alarms that could result from erroneous interpretation of symptoms of aging as symptoms of failures. The figure schematically depicts an FDI system according to the new method. The FDI system is integrated with an engine, from which it accepts two sets of input signals: sensor readings and actuator commands. Two main parts of the FDI system are a bank of Kalman filters and a subsystem that implements FDI decision rules. Each Kalman filter is designed to detect a specific sensor or actuator fault. When a sensor or actuator fault occurs, large estimation errors are generated by all filters except the one using the correct hypothesis. By monitoring the residual output of each filter, the specific fault that has occurred can be detected and isolated on the basis of the decision rules. A set of parameters that indicate the performance of the engine components is estimated by the "correct" Kalman filter for use in detecting component faults. To reduce the loss of diagnostic accuracy and sensitivity in the face of aging, the FDI system accepts information from a steady-state-condition-monitoring system. This information is used to update the Kalman filters and a data bank of trim values representative of the current aging condition.

Kobayashi, Takahisa↗
NASA NTRS1999

On the Unusually High Temperature of the Cluster of Galaxies 1E 0657-56

A recent X-ray observation of the cluster 1E 0657-56 (z = 0.296) with ASC,4 implied an unusually high temperature of approx. 17 keV. Such a high temperature would make it the hottest known cluster and severely constrain cosmological models since, in a Universe with critical density (Omega = 1) the probability of observing such a cluster is only approx. 4 x 10(exp -5). Here we test the robustness of this observational result since it has such important implications. We analysed the data using a variety of different data analysis methods and spectral analysis assumptions and find a temperature of approx. 11 - 12 keV in all cases, except for one class of spectral fits. These are fits in which the absorbing column density is fixed at the Galactic value. Using simulated data for a 12 keV cluster, we show that a high temperature of approx. 17 keV is artificially obtained if the true spectrum has a stronger low-energy cut-off than that for Galactic absorption only. The apparent extra absorption may be astrophysical in origin, (either intrinsic or line-of-sight), or it may be a problem with the low-energy CCD efficiency. Although significantly lower than previous measurements, this temperature of kT approx. 11 - 12 keV is still relatively high since only a few clusters have been found to have temperatures higher than 10 keV and the data therefore still present some difficulty for an Omega = 1 Universe. Our results will also be useful to anyone who wants to estimate the systematic errors involved in different methods of background subtraction of ASCA data for sources with similar signal-to-noise to that of the IE 0657-56 data reported here.

Yaqoob, Tahir↗
NASA NTRS2022

Using airborne and DESIS imaging spectroscopy to map plant diversity across the largest contiguous tract of tallgrass prairie on earth

Grassland ecosystems are under threat globally, primarily due to land-use and land-cover changes that have adversely affected their biodiversity. Given the negative ecological impacts of biodiversity loss in grasslands, there is an urgent need for developing an operational biodiversity monitoring system that functions in these ecosystems. In this paper, we assessed the capability of airborne and spaceborne imaging spectroscopy (also known as hyperspectral imaging) to capture plant α-diversity in a large naturally-assembled grassland while considering the impact of common management practices, specifically prescribed fire. We collected a robust in-situ plant diversity data set, including species composition and percent cover from 2500 sampling points with different burn ages, from recently-burned to transitional and pre-prescribed fire at the Joseph H. Williams Tallgrass Prairie Preserve in Oklahoma, USA. We expressed in-situ plant α-diversity using the first three Hill numbers, including species richness (number of observed species in a plant community), exponential Shannon entropy index (hereafter Shannon diversity; effective number of common species, where species are weighed proportional to their percent cover), and inverse Simpson concentration index (hereafter Simpson diversity; effective number of dominant species, where more weight is given to dominant species) at four different plot sizes, including 60 m × 60 m, 120 m × 120 m, 180 m × 180 m, and 240 m × 240 m. We collected full-range airborne hyperspectral data with fine spatial resolution (1 m) and visible and near-infrared spaceborne hyperspectral data from DESIS sensor with coarse spatial resolution (30 m), and used the spectral diversity hypothesis—i.e., that the variability in spectral data is largely driven by plant diversity—to estimate α-diversity remotely. In recently-burned plots and those at the transitional stage, both airborne and spaceborne data were capable of capturing Simpson diversity—a metric that calculates the effective number of dominant species by emphasizing abundant species and discounting rare species—but not species richness or Shannon diversity. Further, neither airborne nor spaceborne hyperspectral data sets were capable of capturing plant α-diversity of 60 m × 60 m or 120 m × 120 m plots. Based on these results, three main findings emerged: (1) management practices influence grassland biodiversity patterns that can be remotely detected, (2) both fine- and coarse-resolution remotely-sensed data can detect the effective number of dominant species (e.g., Simpson diversity), and (3) attention should be given to site-specific plant diversity field data collection to appropriately interpret remote sensing results. Findings of this study indicate the feasibility of estimating Simpson diversity in naturally-assembled grasslands using forthcoming spaceborne imagers such as National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Surface Biology and Geology mission.

Hamed Gholizadeh↗
NASA NTRS2004

Cirrus Clouds Optical, Microphysical and Radiative Properties Observed During Crystal-Face Experiment: I. A Radar-Lidar Retrieval System

A method of retrieving cloud microphysical properties using combined observations from both cloud radar and lidar is introduced. This retrieval makes use of an improvement to the traditional optimal estimation retrieval method, whereby a series of corrections are applied to the state vector during the search for an iterative solution. This allows faster convergence to a solution and is less processor intensive. The method is first applied to a synthetic cloud t o demonstrate its validity, and it is shown that the retrieval reliably reproduces vertical profiles of ice water content. The retrieval method is then applied to radar and lidar observations from the CRYSTAL-FACE experiment, and vertical profiles of ice crystal diameter, number concentration, and ice water content are retrieved for a cirrus cloud layers observed one day of that experiment. The validity of the relationship between visible extinction coefficient and radar reflectivity was examined. While synthetic tests showed such a functional relationship, the measured data only partially supported such a conclusion. This is due to errors in the forward model (as explained above) as well as errors in the data sets, including possible mismatch between lidar and radar profiles or errors in the optical depth. Empirical relationships between number concentrations and mean particle diameter were also examined. The results indicate that a distinct and robust relationship exists between these retrieved quantities and it is argued that such a relationship is more than an artifact of the retrieval process offering insight into the nature of the microphysical processes taking place in cirrus.

Mitrescu, C.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Optimized O'Neill/Glaser Model for Human Population of Space and its Impact on Survival Probabilities

Two contemporary issues foretell a shift from our historical Earth based industrial economy and habitation to a solar system based society. The first is the limits to Earth's carrying capacity, that is the maximum number of people that the Earth can support before a catastrophic impact to the health of the planet and human species occurs. The simple example of carrying capacity is that of a bacterial colony in a Petri dish with a limited amount of nutrient. The colony experiences exponential population growth until the carrying capacity is reached after which catastrophic depopulation often results. Estimates of the Earth s carrying capacity vary between 14 and 40 billion people. Although at current population growth rates we may have over a century before we reach Earth s carrying limit our influence on climate and resources on the planetary scale is becoming scientifically established. The second issue is the exponential growth of knowledge and technological power. The exponential growth of technology interacts with the exponential growth of population in a manner that is unique to a highly intelligent species. Thus, the predicted consequences (world famines etc.) of the limits to growth have been largely avoided due to technological advances. However, at the mid twentieth century a critical coincidence occurred in these two trends humanity obtained the technological ability to extinguish life on the planetary scale (by nuclear, chemical, biological means) and attained the ability to expand human life beyond Earth. This paper examines an optimized O Neill/Glaser model (O Neill 1975; Curreri 2007; Detweiler and Curreri 2008) for the economic human population of space. Critical to this model is the utilization of extraterrestrial resources, solar power and spaced based labor. A simple statistical analysis is then performed which predicts the robustness of a single planet based technological society versus that of multiple world (independent habitats) society.

Curreri, Peter A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Optimized O'Neill/Glaser Model for Human Population of Space and its Impact on Survival Probabilities

Two contemporary issues foretell a shift from our historical Earth based industrial economy and habitation to a solar system based society. The first is the limits to Earth s carrying capacity, that is the maximum number of people that the Earth can support before a catastrophic impact to the health of the planet and human species occurs. The simple example of carrying capacity is that of a bacterial colony in a Petri dish with a limited amount of nutrient. The colony experiences exponential population growth until the carrying capacity is reached after which catastrophic depopulation often results. Estimates of the Earth s carrying capacity vary between 14 and 40 billion people. Although at current population growth rates we may have over a century before we reach Earth s carrying limit our influence on climate and resources on the planetary scale is becoming scientifically established. The second issue is the exponential growth of knowledge and technological power. The exponential growth of technology interacts with the exponential growth of population in a manner that is unique to a highly intelligent species. Thus, the predicted consequences (world famines etc.) of the limits to growth have been largely avoided due to technological advances. However, at the mid twentieth century a critical coincidence occurred in these two trends humanity obtained the technological ability to extinguish life on the planetary scale (by nuclear, chemical, biological means) and attained the ability to expand human life beyond Earth. This paper examines an optimized O Neill/Glaser model (O Neill 1975; Curreri 2007; Detweiler and Curreri 2008) for the economic human population of space. Critical to this model is the utilization of extraterrestrial resources, solar power and spaced based labor. A simple statistical analysis is then performed which predicts the robustness of a single planet based technological society versus that of multiple world (independent habitats) society.

Curreri, Peter A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Optimized O'Neill/Glaser Model for Human Population of Space and its Impact on Survival Probabilities

Two contemporary issues foretell a shift from our historical Earth based industrial economy and habitation to a solar system based society. The first is the limits to Earth s carrying capacity, that is the maximum number of people that the Earth can support before a catastrophic impact to the health of the planet and human species occurs. The simple example of carrying capacity is that of a bacterial colony in a Petri dish with a limited amount of nutrient. The colony experiences exponential population growth until the carrying capacity is reached after which catastrophic depopulation often results. Estimates of the Earth s carrying capacity vary between 14 and 40 billion people. Although at current population growth rates we may have over a century before we reach Earth s carrying limit our influence on climate and resources on the planetary scale is becoming scientifically established. The second issue is the exponential growth of knowledge and technological power. The exponential growth of technology interacts with the exponential growth of population in a manner that is unique to a highly intelligent species. Thus, the predicted consequences (world famines etc.) of the limits to growth have been largely avoided due to technological advances. However, at the mid twentieth century a critical coincidence occurred in these two trends humanity obtained the technological ability to extinguish life on the planetary scale (by nuclear, chemical, biological means) and attained the ability to expand human life beyond Earth. This paper examines an optimized O'Neill/Glaser model (O Neill 1975; Curreri 2007; Detweiler and Curreri 2008) for the economic human population of space. Critical to this model is the utilization of extraterrestrial resources, solar power and spaced based labor. A simple statistical analysis is then performed which predicts the robustness of a single planet based technological society versus that of multiple world (independent habitats) society.

Curreri, Peter A.↗