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NASA NTRS2009

Using Black Hole Mergers to Explore Structure Formation

Observations of gravitational waves from massive black hole mergers will open a new window into the era of structure formation in the early universe. Past efforts have concentrated on calculating merger rates using different physical assumptions, resulting in merger rate estimates that span a wide range (0.1 - 10(exp 4) mergers/year). We develop a semi-analytical, phenomenological model of massive black hole mergers that includes plausible combinations of several physical parameters, which we then turn around to determine how well observations with the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will be able to enhance our understanding of the universe during the critical z approximately equal to 5-30 epoch. Our approach involves generating synthetic LISA observable data (total BH masses, BH mass ratios, redshifts, merger rates), which are then analyzed using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, thus finding constraints for the physical parameters of the mergers. We find that our method works well at estimating merger parameters and that the number of merger events is a key discriminant among models, therefore making our method robust against observational uncertainties. Our approach can also be extended to more physically-driven models and more general problems in cosmology. This work is supported in part by the Cooperative Education Program at NASA/GSFC.

Alicea-Munoz, E.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Vegetation Water Content Mapping in a Diverse Agricultural Landscape: National Airborne Field Experiment 2006

Mapping land cover and vegetation characteristics on a regional scale is critical to soil moisture retrieval using microwave remote sensing. In aircraft-based experiments such as the National Airborne Field Experiment 2006 (NAFE 06), it is challenging to provide accurate high resolution vegetation information, especially on a daily basis. A technique proposed in previous studies was adapted here to the heterogenous conditions encountered in NAFE 06, which included a hydrologically complex landscape consisting of both irrigated and dryland agriculture. Using field vegetation sampling and ground-based reflectance measurements, the knowledge base for relating the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) and the vegetation water content was extended to a greater diversity of agricultural crops, which included dryland and irrigated wheat, alfalfa, and canola. Critical to the generation of vegetation water content maps, the land cover for this region was determined from satellite visible/infrared imagery and ground surveys with an accuracy of 95.5% and a kappa coefficient of 0.95. The vegetation water content was estimated with a root mean square error of 0.33 kg/sq m. The results of this investigation contribute to a more robust database of global vegetation water content observations and demonstrate that the approach can be applied with high accuracy. Keywords: Vegetation, field experimentation, thematic mapper, NDWI, agriculture.

Cosh, Michael H.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Completing the Feedback Loop: The Impact of Chlorophyll Data Assimilation on the Ocean State

In anticipation of the integration of a full biochemical model into the next generation GMAO coupled system, an intermediate solution has been implemented to estimate the penetration depth (1Kd_PAR) of ocean radiation based on the chlorophyll concentration. The chlorophyll is modeled as a tracer with sources-sinks coming from the assimilation of MODIS chlorophyll data. Two experiments were conducted with the coupled ocean-atmosphere model. In the first, climatological values of Kpar were used. In the second, retrieved daily chlorophyll concentrations were assimilated and Kd_PAR was derived according to Morel et al (2007). No other data was assimilated to isolate the effects of the time-evolving chlorophyll field. The daily MODIS Kd_PAR product was used to validate the skill of the penetration depth estimation and the MERRA-OCEAN re-analysis was used as a benchmark to study the sensitivity of the upper ocean heat content and vertical temperature distribution to the chlorophyll input. In the experiment with daily chlorophyll data assimilation, the penetration depth was estimated more accurately, especially in the tropics. As a result, the temperature bias of the model was reduced. A notably robust albeit small (2-5 percent) improvement was found across the equatorial Pacific ocean, which is a critical region for seasonal to inter-annual prediction.

MERRA-OCEAN↗

DOE OSTI2020

Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship at the Sandia Wetlands at Los Alamos National Laboratory (2014-2019)

Biologists at Los Alamos National Laboratory completed six years (2014–2019) of demographic monitoring of passerines (songbirds) during the breeding season in Los Alamos, New Mexico. We captured songbirds at a mist netting station located in the Sandia Wetlands in Sandia Canyon (Technical Areas 60 and 61). We identified, measured, and then banded captured birds with federal migratory bird bands. Banding operations took place between May and August of each year, with 10 mist netting sessions annually. We conducted this project as part of the implementation of the Biological Resources Management Plan. The project complies with the 2013 Memorandum of Understanding between the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and the United States Department of Energy regarding the implementation of Executive Order 13186. The overall number of birds and species captured was variable, and we saw no decreases over the course of six years in bird species diversity, abundance, or the percentage of breeding birds. Our results indicate that the Sandia Wetlands support numerous species of breeding birds, including species of conservation concern. We did not see a declining trend for the top 10 most-captured species or for any of the species of conservation concern over time; however, we need more years of data to make robust conclusions about population trends through time. Our results indicated that adult recapture rates at the Sandia Wetlands are at least twice as low when compared with estimated adult survival in migratory passerines from peer-reviewed literature. We also did not recapture any birds that were banded as juveniles in subsequent years throughout the entire six-year period. Low recapture rates for adults and the non-existent recapture rates for juveniles should be explored further. To accurately assess individual species survival rates for adults and juveniles using mark-recapture models, we need a longer dataset, which would allow for a more robust analysis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic Framework for Optimal Control of Planetary Reentry Trajectories Under Multilevel Uncertainties

We present a novel stochastic optimal control framework that accounts for various types of uncertainties, with application to reentry trajectory planning. The formulation of the optimal trajectory control problem is presented in the context of an indirect method where a functional objective associated with the terminal vehicle speed is to be minimized. Uncertain input parameters in the optimal trajectory control model, including aerodynamic parameters and initial and terminal conditions, are modeled as aleatory random variables, while the statistical parameters of these aleatory distributions are themselves random variables. The parametric and model uncertainties are simultaneously propagated through an extended polynomial chaos expansion (EPCE) formalism. Several metrics are described to evaluate response statistics and presented as insightful tools for robust decision making. Specifically, the response probability density function (PDF) reflecting influence of both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties is obtained. By sampling over the random variables representing model error, an ensemble of response PDFs is generated and the associated failure probability is estimated as a random variable with its own polynomial chaos expansion. Besides, the sensitivity index functions of response PDF with respect to the statistical parameters are evaluated. Coupling parametric and model uncertainties within the EPCE framework leads to a robust and efficient paradigm for multilevel uncertainty propagation and PDF characterization in general optimal control problems.

Engineering↗

NASA NTRS1995

Robust integrated neurocontroller for complex dynamic systems

The goal of this research effort is to develop an integrated control software environment for the purpose of creating an intelligent neurocontrol system. The system will be capable of estimating states, identifying parameters, diagnosing conditions, planning control strategies, and producing intelligent control actions. The distinct features of such control system are adaptability and on-line learning capability. The proposed system will be flexible to allow structure adaptability to account for changes in the dynamic system such as sensory failures and/or component degradations. The developed system should learn system uncertainties and changes, as they occur, while maintaining minimal control level on the dynamic system. The research activities set to achieve the research objective are summarized by the following general items: (1) Development of a system identifier or diagnostic system; (2) Development of a robust neurocontroller system, and; (3) Integration of above systems to create a robust Integration Control system (RIC-system). Two contrary approaches are investigated in this research: classical (traditional) design approach, and the simultaneous design approach. However, in both approaches neural network is the base for the development of different functions of the system. The two resulting designs will be tested and simulation results will be compared for better possible implementation.

Zein-Sabbato, S.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Robust Integrated Neurocontroller for Complex Dynamic Systems

The goal of this research effort is to develop an integrated control software environment for the purpose of creating an intelligent neurocontrol system. The system will be capable of estimating states, identifying parameters, diagnosing conditions, planning control strategies, and producing intelligent control actions. The distinct features of such control system are: adaptability and on-line learning capability. The proposed system will be flexible to allow structure adaptability to account for changes in the dynamic system such as: sensory failures and/or component degradations. The developed system should learn system uncertainties and changes, as they occur, while maintaining minimal control level on the dynamic system. The research activities set to achieve the research objective are summarized by the following general items: (1) Development of a system identifier or diagnostic system, (2) Development of a robust neurocontroller system, and 3. Integration of above systems to create a Robust Integrated Control system (RIC-system). Two contrary approaches are investigated in this research: classical (traditional) design approach, and the simultaneous design approach. However, in both approaches neural network is the base for the development of different functions of the system. The two resulting designs will be tested and simulation results will be compared for better possible implementation.

Zein-Sabatto, S.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Utilizing Flight Data to Update Aeroelastic Stability Estimates

Stability analysis of high performance aircraft must account for errors in the system model. A method for computing flutter margins that incorporates flight data has been developed using robust stability theory. This paper considers applying this method to update flutter margins during a post-flight or on-line analysis. Areas of modeling uncertainty that arise when using flight data with this method are investigated. The amount of conservatism in the resulting flutter margins depends on the flight data sets used to update the model. Post-flight updates of flutter margins for an F/A-18 are presented along with a simulation of on-line updates during a flight test.

Lind, Rick↗

DOE OSTI2025

Spatiotemporal Downscaling Model for Solar Irradiance Forecast Using Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest and Gaussian Process

Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity estimation requires high-resolution, site-specific solar irradiance data to account for localized variability. However, global datasets, such as the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), provide regional averages that fail to capture the fine-scale fluctuations critical for large-scale grid integration. This limitation is particularly relevant in the context of increasing distributed energy resources (DERs) penetration, such as rooftop PV. Additionally, it is critical to the implementation of the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 2222, which facilitates DER participation in U.S. bulk power markets. To address this challenge, this study evaluates Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest (NNRF) and Nearest-Neighbor Gaussian Process (NNGP) models for spatiotemporal downscaling of global solar irradiance data. By leveraging historical irradiance and meteorological data, these models incorporate spatial, temporal, and feature-based correlations to enhance local irradiance predictions. The NNRF model, a machine-learning approach, prioritizes computational efficiency and predictive accuracy, while the NNGP model offers a level of interpretability and prediction uncertainty by numerically quantifying correlations and dependencies in the data. Model validation was conducted using day-ahead predictions. The results showed that the average Goodness of Fit (GoF) of the NNRF model of 90.61% across all eight sites outperformed the GoF of the NNGP of 85.88%. Additionally, the computational speed of NNRF was 2.5 times faster than the NNGP. Finally, the NNGP displayed polynomial scaling while the NNRF scaled linearly with increasing number of nearest neighbors. Additional validation of the model on five sites in Puerto Rico further confirmed the superiority of the NNRF model over the NNGP model. These findings highlight the robustness and computational efficiency of NNRF for large-scale solar irradiance downscaling, making it a strong candidate for improving PV capacity estimation and real-time electricity market integration for DERs.

Asiedu, Shadrack (ORCID:0009000646004826)↗

DOE OSTI2020

RouteE: A Vehicle Energy Consumption Prediction Engine

The emergence of connected and automated vehicles and smart cities technologies create the opportunity for new mobility modes and routing decision tools, among many others. To achieve maximum mobility and minimum energy consumption, it is critical to understand the energy cost of decisions and optimize accordingly. The Route Energy prediction model (RouteE) enables accurate estimation of energy consumption for a variety of vehicle types over trips or sub-trips where detailed drive cycle data are unavailable. Applications include vehicle route selection, energy accounting and optimization in transportation simulation, and corridor energy analyses, among others. The software is a Python package that includes a variety of pre-trained models from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). However, RouteE also enables users to train custom models using their own data sets, making it a robust and valuable tool for both fast calculations and rigorous, data-rich research efforts. The pre-trained RouteE models are established using NREL’s Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator paired with approximately 1 million miles of drive cycle data from the Transportation Secure Data Center, resulting in energy consumption behavior estimates over a representative sample of driving conditions for the United States. Validations have been performed using on-road fuel consumption data for conventional and electrified vehicle powertrains. Transferring the results of the on-road validation to a larger set of real-world origin-destination pairs, it is estimated that implementing the present methodology in a green-routing application would accurately select the route that consumes the least fuel 90% of the time. The novel machine learning techniques used in RouteE make it a flexible and robust tool for a variety of transportation applications.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NASA NTRS1986

On realizations of least-squares estimation and Kalman filtering by systolic arrays

Least-squares (LS) estimation is a basic operation in many signal processing problems. Given y = Ax + v, where A is a m x n coefficient matrix, y is a m x 1 observation vector, and v is a m x 1 zero mean white noise vector, a simple least-squares solution is finding the estimated vector x which minimizes the norm of /Ax-y/. It is well known that for an ill-conditioned matrix A, solving least-squares problems by orthogonal triangular (QR) decomposition and back substitution has robust numerical properties under finite word length effect since 2-norm is preserved. Many fast algorithms have been proposed and applied to systolic arrays. Gentleman-Kung (1981) first presented the trianglular systolic array for a basic Givens reduction. McWhirter (1983) used this array structure to find the least-squares estimation errors. Then by geometric approach, several different systolic array realizations of the recursive least-squares estimation algorithms of Lee et al (1981) were derived by Kalson-Yao (1985). Basic QR decomposition algorithms are considered in this paper and it is found that under a one-row time updating situation, the Householder transformation degenerates to a simple Givens reduction. Next, an improved least-squares estimation algorithm is derived by considering a modified version of fast Givens reduction. From this approach, the basic relationship between Givens reduction and Modified-Gram-Schmidt transformation can easily be understood. This improved algorithm also has simpler computational and inter-cell connection complexities while compared with other known least-squares algorithms and is more realistic for systolic array implementation.

Chen, M. J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Explainable multi-fidelity Bayesian neural network for distribution system state estimation

Distribution System State Estimation (DSSE) is frequently constrained by limited real-time measurements, the uncertainties introduced by distributed energy resources, and the presence of bad data. To address them, this paper proposes an enhanced Multi-Fidelity Bayesian Neural Network (MFBNN) DSSE approach. A low-fidelity layer based on a Deep Neural Network (DNN) is first pre-trained on pseudo-measurement data to learn fundamental state features. Subsequently, a high-fidelity Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) layer leverages limited but high-quality real-time measurements to refine these features, thereby achieving accurate DSSE. Additionally, the deep SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) is developed to quantify the influence of measurement data on DSSE through dual perspectives of global feature importance and local nodal contributions, establishing a hierarchical explainability framework for machine learning-based DSSE. Comparative studies conducted on the IEEE 13-bus system and a real-world 2135-node system from Dominion Energy demonstrate that the proposed method excels in estimation accuracy, even under situations of high noise levels, bad data, and missing data. Further comparisons with Weighted Least Squares (WLS) and other machine learning-based DSSE approaches verify that the proposed framework offers higher accuracy, improved interpretability, and enhanced robustness.

Bad data↗

DOE OSTI2025

Clumping index estimation with 30°-tilted cameras in row crops: Evaluation of methods and segment size effects

The clumping index (CI) quantifies the spatial distribution of foliage elements and is essential for accurately estimating the plant area index (PAI), canopy radiative transfer, and photosynthesis. Traditionally, the finite-length averaging method (LX), the gap size distribution method (CC), and a combined approach of CC and LX (CLX) have been applied to instruments like TRAC and digital hemispherical photography to estimate CI. However, a comprehensive evaluation of these methods in row crops remains limited, especially regarding the influence of segment size on CI. Meanwhile, digital cameras offer a cost-effective and user-friendly solution for canopy measurements in row crops, yet their application in this context remains underexplored. In this study, we employed a new approach using a 30°-tilted digital camera to estimate CI in corn and soybean fields, applying the LX, CC, and CLX methods. We systematically assessed the performance of these three methods by combining field measurements in real-world fields with simulations using the LESS 3D radiative transfer model. Our results showed that CLX applied to the whole image and 45° segment offered accurate estimation of CI (bias within ±0.1, RMSE < 0.2) and PAI (bias within ±0.4, RMSE < 1) in real-world fields and LESS simulations. The accuracy of the LX method was highly sensitive to segment size, with the best performance observed at the 15° segment (PAI bias within ±0.4). In contrast, the CC method remained stable across different segment sizes, and its performance was generally comparable to that of LX, except at the 15° segment. Across view zenith angles, CI derived from CC generally showed a continuous increase, while those from LX and CLX followed a rising trend at small zenith angles but began to decline at 68°, likely due to an increasing proportion of no-gap segments. Seasonally, LX tended to show decreasing CI during early growth stages but increased as the canopy matured, whereas CC and CLX showed gradually increasing CI before plateauing at peak PAI. The 30°-tilted camera effectively captured CI variations across different angles and growth stages, making it a practical and robust instrument for row crop canopy structure analysis. Furthermore, applying these CI methods to digital cameras offers a low-cost and accessible CI estimation alternative, improving canopy structure monitoring accuracy in row crops.

30°-tilted camera↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Bayesian Framework for Spectral Reprojection

Abstract Fourier partial sum approximations yield exponential accuracy for smooth and periodic functions, but produce the infamous Gibbs phenomenon for non-periodic ones. Spectral reprojection resolves the Gibbs phenomenon by projecting the Fourier partial sum onto a Gibbs complementary basis, often prescribed as the Gegenbauer polynomials. Noise in the Fourier data and the Runge phenomenon both degrade the quality of the Gegenbauer reconstruction solution, however. Motivated by its theoretical convergence properties, this paper proposes a new Bayesian framework for spectral reprojection, which allows a greater understanding of the impact of noise on the reprojection method from a statistical point of view. We are also able to improve the robustness with respect to the Gegenbauer polynomials parameters. Finally, the framework provides a mechanism to quantify the uncertainty of the solution estimate.

Li, Tongtong (ORCID:0000000276644764)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Tidal Turbine Benchmarking Project: Stage I - Steady Flow Blind Predictions: Preprint

This paper presents the first blind prediction stage of the Tidal Turbine Benchmarking Project being conducted and funded by the UK's EPSRC and Supergen ORE Hub. In this first stage, only steady flow conditions, at low and elevated turbulence (3.1%) levels, were considered. Prior to the blind prediction stage, a large laboratory scale experiment was conducted in which a highly instrumented 1.6m diameter tidal rotor was towed through a large towing tank in well-defined flow conditions with and without an upstream turbulence grid. Details of the test campaign and rotor design were released as part of this community blind prediction exercise. Participants were invited to use a range of engineering modelling approaches to simulate the performance and loads of the turbine. 26 submissions were received from 12 groups from across academia and industry using solution techniques ranging from blade resolved computational fluid dynamics through actuator line, boundary integral element methods, vortex methods to engineering Blade Element Momentum methods. The comparisons between experiments and blind predictions were extremely positive helping to provide validation and uncertainty estimates for the models, but also validating the experimental tests themselves. The exercise demonstrated that the experimental turbine data provides a robust data set against which researchers and design engineers can test their models and implementations to ensure robustness in their processes, helping to reduce uncertainty and provide increased confidence in engineering processes. Furthermore, the data set provides the basis by which modellers can evaluate and refine approaches.

benchmarking↗

NASA NTRS1988

Angle of attack estimation using an inertial reference platform

This paper presents the mathematical development and flight test results of an angle of attack estimation system based on inertial navigation system inputs. The estimator uses these inputs to determine the coefficient of lift required at any instant inflight. Angle of attack is then modeled through a regression analysis based on coefficient of lift, altitude and Mach. Overall correlation of the estimator as tested was generally within 0.5 degrees through 17 degrees angle of attack on an F-15A aircraft. A robustness analysis indicates that the system can be used adequately in maneuvering flight.

Zeis, Joseph E., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1996

An Atmospheric Tape Recorder: The Imprint of Tropical Tropopause Temperatures on Stratospheric Water Vapor

We describe observations of tropical stratospheric water vapor q that show clear evidence of large-scale upward advection of the signal from annual fluctuations in the effective 'entry mixing ratio' q(sub E) of air entering the tropical stratosphere. In other words, air is 'marked,' on emergence above the highest cloud tops, like a signal recorded on an upward moving magnetic tape. We define q(sub E) as the mean water vapor mixing ratio, at the tropical tropopause, of air that will subsequently rise and enter the stratospheric 'overworld' at about 400 K. The observations show a systematic phase lag, increasing with altitude, between the annual cycle in q(sub E) and the annual cycle in q at higher altitudes. The observed phase lag agrees with the phase lag calculated assuming advection by the transformed Eulerian-mean vertical velocity of a q(sub E) crudely estimated from 100-hPa temperatures, which we use as a convenient proxy for tropopause temperatures. The phase agreement confirms the overall robustness of the calculation and strongly supports the tape recorder hypothesis. Establishing a quantitative link between q(sub E) and observed tropopause temperatures, however, proves difficult because the process of marking the tape depends subtly on both small- and large-scale processes. The tape speed, or large-scale upward advection speed, has a substantial annual variation and a smaller variation due to the quasi-biennial oscillation, which delays or accelerates the arrival of the signal by a month or two in the middle stratosphere. As the tape moves upward, the signal is attenuated with an e-folding time of about 7 to 9 months between 100 and 50 hPa and about 15 to 18 months between 50 and 20 hPa, constraining possible orders of magnitude both of vertical diffusion K(sub z) and of rates of mixing in from the extratropics. For instance, if there were no mixing in, then K(sub z) would be in the range 0.03-0.09 m(exp 2)/s; this is an upper bound on K(sub z).

Mote, Philip W.↗

NASA NTRS2008

On the Observed Robustness of Disturbance-Observers; A Technical Explanation and Simulation Validation

This paper examines the ability of a real-time "disturbance-observer" to adapt-to and closely estimate the time-behavior of a disturbance-input w(t) (and of it's state-vector z(t)) even when the actual w(t) time-behavior deviates from the observer's "internal-copy" of the nominal/predicted w(t)-behavior. By means of technical explanations and confirming simulation studies of numerical examples, the disturbance-observer's adaptive ability is explained in terms-of the underlying spline-model used to derive the disturbance state-model and the intrinsic dynamic characteristics of a state-observer.

Hannan, Michael R.↗