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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2001

Managing Programmatic Risk for Complex Space System Developments

Risk management strategies have become a recent important research topic to many aerospace organizations as they prepare to develop the revolutionary complex space systems of the future. Future multi-disciplinary complex space systems will make it absolutely essential for organizations to practice a rigorous, comprehensive risk management process, emphasizing thorough systems engineering principles to succeed. Project managers must possess strong leadership skills to direct high quality, cross-disciplinary teams for successfully developing revolutionary space systems that are ever increasing in complexity. Proactive efforts to reduce or eliminate risk throughout a project's lifecycle ideally must be practiced by all technical members in the organization. This paper discusses some of the risk management perspectives that were collected from senior managers and project managers of aerospace and aeronautical organizations by the use of interviews and surveys. Some of the programmatic risks which drive the success or failure of projects are revealed. Key findings lead to a number of insights for organizations to consider for proactively approaching the risks which face current and future complex space systems projects.

Panetta, Peter V.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Reducing Design Risk Using Robust Design Methods: A Dual Response Surface Approach

Space transportation system conceptual design is a multidisciplinary process containing considerable element of risk. Risk here is defined as the variability in the estimated (output) performance characteristic of interest resulting from the uncertainties in the values of several disciplinary design and/or operational parameters. Uncertainties from one discipline (and/or subsystem) may propagate to another, through linking parameters and the final system output may have a significant accumulation of risk. This variability can result in significant deviations from the expected performance. Therefore, an estimate of variability (which is called design risk in this study) together with the expected performance characteristic value (e.g. mean empty weight) is necessary for multidisciplinary optimization for a robust design. Robust design in this study is defined as a solution that minimizes variability subject to a constraint on mean performance characteristics. Even though multidisciplinary design optimization has gained wide attention and applications, the treatment of uncertainties to quantify and analyze design risk has received little attention. This research effort explores the dual response surface approach to quantify variability (risk) in critical performance characteristics (such as weight) during conceptual design.

Unal, Resit↗
NASA NTRS2003

Robotic Mars Sample Return: Risk Assessment and Analysis Report

A comparison of the risk associated with two alternative scenarios for a robotic Mars sample return mission was conducted. Two alternative mission scenarios were identified, the Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) reference Mission and a mission proposed by Johnson Space Center (JSC). The JPL mission was characterized by two landers and an orbiter, and a Mars orbit rendezvous to retrieve the samples. The JSC mission (Direct/SEP) involves a solar electric propulsion (SEP) return to earth followed by a rendezvous with the space shuttle in earth orbit. A qualitative risk assessment to identify and characterize the risks, and a risk analysis to quantify the risks were conducted on these missions. Technical descriptions of the competing scenarios were developed in conjunction with NASA engineers and the sequence of events for each candidate mission was developed. Risk distributions associated with individual and combinations of events were consolidated using event tree analysis in conjunction with Monte Carlo techniques to develop probabilities of mission success for each of the various alternatives. The results were the probability of success of various end states for each candidate scenario. These end states ranged from complete success through various levels of partial success to complete failure. Overall probability of success for the Direct/SEP mission was determined to be 66% for the return of at least one sample and 58% for the JPL mission for the return of at least one sample cache. Values were also determined for intermediate events and end states as well as for the probability of violation of planetary protection. Overall mission planetary protection event probabilities of occurrence were determined to be 0.002% and 1.3% for the Direct/SEP and JPL Reference missions respectively.

Lalk, Thomas R.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Human Health Risk Assessment Simulations in a Distributed Environment for Shuttle Launch

During the launch of a rocket under prevailing weather conditions, commanders at Cape Canaveral Air Force station evaluate the possibility of whether wind blown toxic emissions might reach civilian and military personnel in the near by area. In our model, we focused mainly on Hydrogen chloride (HCL), Nitrogen oxides (NOx) and Nitric acid (HNO3), which are non-carcinogenic chemicals as per United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) classification. We have used the hazard quotient model to estimate the number of people at risk. It is based on the number of people with exposure above a reference exposure level that is unlikely to cause adverse health effects. The risk to the exposed population is calculated by multiplying the individual risk and the number in exposed population. The risk values are compared against the acceptable risk values and GO or NO-go situation is decided based on risk values for the Shuttle launch. The entire model is simulated over the web and different scenaria can be generated which allows management to choose an optimum decision.

Thirumalainambi, Rajkumar↗
NASA NTRS2007

Renal Stone Risk During Space Flight: Assessment and Countermeasure Validation

NASA has focused its future on exploration class missions including the goal of returning to the moon and landing on Mars. With these objectives, humans will experience an extended exposure to the harsh environment of microgravity and the associated negative effects on all the physiological systems of the body. Exposure to microgravity affects human physiology and results in changes to the urinary chemical composition during and after space flight. These changes are associated with an increased risk of renal stone formation. The development of a renal stone would have health consequences for the crewmember and negatively impact the success of the mission. As of January 2007, 15 known symptomatic medical events consistent with urinary calculi have been experienced by 13 U.S. astronauts and Russian cosmonauts. Previous results from both MIR and Shuttle missions have demonstrated an increased risk for renal stone formation. These data have shown decreased urine volume, urinary pH and citrate levels and increased urinary calcium. Citrate, an important urinary inhibitor of calcium-containing renal stones binds with calcium in the urine, thereby reducing the amount of calcium available to form calcium oxalate stones. Urinary citrate also prevents calcium oxalate crystals from aggregating into larger crystals and into renal stones. In addition, citrate makes the urine less acidic which inhibits the development of uric acid stones. Potassium citrate supplementation has been successfully used to treat patients who have formed renal stones. The evaluation of potassium citrate as a countermeasure has been performed during the ISS Expeditions 3-6, 8, 11-13 and is currently in progress during the ISS Expedition 14 mission. Together with the assessment of stone risk and the evaluation of a countermeasure, this investigation provides an educational opportunity to all crewmembers. Individual urinary biochemical profiles are generated and the risk of stone formation is estimated. Increasing fluid intake is recommended to all crewmembers. These results can be used to lower the risk for stone formation through lifestyle, diet changes or therapeutic administration to minimize the risk for stone development. With human presence in microgravity a continuing presence and exploration class missions being planned, maintaining the health and welfare of all crewmembers is critical to the exploration of space.

Whitson, P. A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Trade Studies of Space Launch Architectures using Modular Probabilistic Risk Analysis

A top-down risk assessment in the early phases of space exploration architecture development can provide understanding and intuition of the potential risks associated with new designs and technologies. In this approach, risk analysts draw from their past experience and the heritage of similar existing systems as a source for reliability data. This top-down approach captures the complex interactions of the risk driving parts of the integrated system without requiring detailed knowledge of the parts themselves, which is often unavailable in the early design stages. Traditional probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) technologies, however, suffer several drawbacks that limit their timely application to complex technology development programs. The most restrictive of these is a dependence on static planning scenarios, expressed through fault and event trees. Fault trees incorporating comprehensive mission scenarios are routinely constructed for complex space systems, and several commercial software products are available for evaluating fault statistics. These static representations cannot capture the dynamic behavior of system failures without substantial modification of the initial tree. Consequently, the development of dynamic models using fault tree analysis has been an active area of research in recent years. This paper discusses the implementation and demonstration of dynamic, modular scenario modeling for integration of subsystem fault evaluation modules using the Space Architecture Failure Evaluation (SAFE) tool. SAFE is a C++ code that was originally developed to support NASA s Space Launch Initiative. It provides a flexible framework for system architecture definition and trade studies. SAFE supports extensible modeling of dynamic, time-dependent risk drivers of the system and functions at the level of fidelity for which design and failure data exists. The approach is scalable, allowing inclusion of additional information as detailed data becomes available. The tool performs a Monte Carlo analysis to provide statistical estimates. Example results of an architecture system reliability study are summarized for an exploration system concept using heritage data from liquid-fueled expendable Saturn V/Apollo launch vehicles.

Mathias, Donovan L.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Predictions of Leukemia Risks to Astronauts from Solar Particle Events

Leukemias consisting of acute and chronic myeloid leukemia and acute lymphatic lymphomas represent the earliest cancers that appear after radiation exposure, have a high lethality fraction, and make up a significant fraction of the overall fatal cancer risk from radiation for adults. Several considerations impact the recommendation of a preferred model for the estimation of leukemia risks from solar particle events (SPE's): The BEIR VII report recommends several changes to the method of calculation of leukemia risk compared to the methods recommended by the NCRP Report No. 132 including the preference of a mixture model with additive and multiplicative components in BEIR VII compared to the additive transfer model recommended by NCRP Report No. 132. Proton fluences and doses vary considerably across marrow regions because of the characteristic spectra of primary solar protons making the use of an average dose suspect. Previous estimates of bone marrow doses from SPE's have used an average body-shielding distribution for marrow based on the computerized anatomical man model (CAM). We have developed an 82-point body-shielding distribution that faithfully reproduces the mean and variance of SPE doses in the active marrow regions (head and neck, chest, abdomen, pelvis and thighs) allowing for more accurate estimation of linear- and quadratic-dose components of the marrow response. SPE's have differential dose-rates and a pseudo-quadratic dose response term is possible in the peak-flux period of an event. Also, the mechanistic basis for leukemia risk continues to improve allowing for improved strategies in choosing dose-rate modulation factors and radiation quality descriptors. We make comparisons of the various choices of the components in leukemia risk estimates in formulating our preferred model. A major finding is that leukemia could be the dominant risk to astronauts for a major solar particle event.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Career Excess Mortality Risk from Diagnostic Radiological Exams Required for Crewmembers Participating in Long Duration Space Flight

NASA requires astronauts to undergo diagnostic x-ray examinations as a condition for their employment. The purpose of these procedures is to assess the astronaut s overall health and to diagnose conditions that could jeopardize the success of long duration space missions. These include exams for acceptance into the astronaut corps, routine periodic exams, as well as evaluations taken pre and post missions. Issues: According to NASA policy these medical examinations are considered occupational radiological exposures, and thus, are included when computing the astronaut s overall radiation dose and associated excess cancer mortality risk. As such, astronauts and administrators are concerned about the amount of radiation received from these procedures due to the possibility that these additional doses may cause astronauts to exceed NASA s administrative limits, thus disqualifying them from future flights. Methods: Radiation doses and cancer mortality risks following required medical radiation exposures are presented herein for representative male and female astronaut careers. Calculation of the excess cancer mortality risk was performed by adapting NASA s operational risk assessment model. Averages for astronaut height, weight, number of space missions and age at selection into the astronaut corps were used as inputs to the NASA risk model. Conclusion: The results show that the level of excess cancer mortality imposed by all required medical procedures over an entire astronaut s career is approximately the same as that resulting from a single short duration space flight (i.e. space shuttle mission). In short the summation of all medical procedures involving ionizing radiation should have no impact on the number of missions an astronaut can fly over their career. Learning Objectives: 1. The types of diagnostic medical exams which astronauts are subjected to will be presented. 2. The level of radiation dose and excess mortality risk to the average male and female astronaut will be presented.

Dodge, C. W.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Probabilistic Assessment of Radiation Risk for Astronauts in Space Missions

Accurate predictions of the health risks to astronauts from space radiation exposure are necessary for enabling future lunar and Mars missions. Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons, (less than 100 MeV); and galactic cosmic rays (GCR), which include protons and heavy ions of higher energies. While the expected frequency of SPEs is strongly influenced by the solar activity cycle, SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature. A solar modulation model has been developed for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment, which is represented by the deceleration potential, phi. The risk of radiation exposure from SPEs during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) or in lightly shielded vehicles is a major concern for radiation protection, including determining the shielding and operational requirements for astronauts and hardware. To support the probabilistic risk assessment for EVAs, which would be up to 15% of crew time on lunar missions, we estimated the probability of SPE occurrence as a function of time within a solar cycle using a nonhomogeneous Poisson model to fit the historical database of measurements of protons with energy > 30 MeV, (phi)30. The resultant organ doses and dose equivalents, as well as effective whole body doses for acute and cancer risk estimations are analyzed for a conceptual habitat module and a lunar rover during defined space mission periods. This probabilistic approach to radiation risk assessment from SPE and GCR is in support of mission design and operational planning to manage radiation risks for space exploration.

Kim, Myung-Hee↗
NASA NTRS2010

Data Mining Activity for Bone Discipline: Calculating a Factor of Risk for Hip Fracture in Long-Duration Astronauts

The factor-of-risk (Phi), defined as the ratio of applied load to bone strength, is a biomechanical approach to hip fracture risk assessment that may be used to identify subjects who are at increased risk for fracture. The purpose of this project was to calculate the factor of risk in long duration astronauts after return from a mission on the International Space Station (ISS), which is typically 6 months in duration. The load applied to the hip was calculated for a sideways fall from standing height based on the individual height and weight of the astronauts. The soft tissue thickness overlying the greater trochanter was measured from the DXA whole body scans and used to estimate attenuation of the impact force provided by soft tissues overlying the hip. Femoral strength was estimated from femoral areal bone mineral density (aBMD) measurements by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), which were performed between 5-32 days of landing. All long-duration NASA astronauts from Expedition 1 to 18 were included in this study, where repeat flyers were treated as separate subjects. Male astronauts (n=20) had a significantly higher factor of risk for hip fracture Phi than females (n=5), with preflight values of 0.83+/-0.11 and 0.36+/-0.07, respectively, but there was no significant difference between preflight and postflight Phi (Figure 1). Femoral aBMD measurements were not found to be significantly different between men and women. Three men and no women exceeded the theoretical fracture threshold of Phi=1 immediately postflight, indicating that they would likely suffer a hip fracture if they were to experience a sideways fall with impact to the greater trochanter. These data suggest that male astronauts may be at greater risk for hip fracture than women following spaceflight, primarily due to relatively less soft tissue thickness and subsequently greater impact force.

Ellman, R.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Probabilistic Assessment of Cancer Risk from Solar Particle Events

For long duration missions outside of the protection of the Earth s magnetic field, space radiation presents significant health risks including cancer mortality. Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons (less than several hundred MeV); and galactic cosmic ray (GCR), which include high energy protons and heavy ions. While the frequency distribution of SPEs depends strongly upon the phase within the solar activity cycle, the individual SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature. We estimated the probability of SPE occurrence using a non-homogeneous Poisson model to fit the historical database of proton measurements. Distributions of particle fluences of SPEs for a specified mission period were simulated ranging from its 5 th to 95th percentile to assess the cancer risk distribution. Spectral variability of SPEs was also examined, because the detailed energy spectra of protons are important especially at high energy levels for assessing the cancer risk associated with energetic particles for large events. We estimated the overall cumulative probability of GCR environment for a specified mission period using a solar modulation model for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment represented by the deceleration potential (^). Probabilistic assessment of cancer fatal risk was calculated for various periods of lunar and Mars missions. This probabilistic approach to risk assessment from space radiation is in support of mission design and operational planning for future manned space exploration missions. In future work, this probabilistic approach to the space radiation will be combined with a probabilistic approach to the radiobiological factors that contribute to the uncertainties in projecting cancer risks.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Modeling Payload Stowage Impacts on Fire Risks On-Board the International Space Station

The purpose of this presentation is to determine the risks of fire on-board the ISS due to non-standard stowage. ISS stowage is constantly being reexamined for optimality. Non-standard stowage involves stowing items outside of rack drawers, and fire risk is a key concern and is heavily mitigated. A Methodology is needed to account for fire risk due to non-standard stowage to capture the risk. The contents include: 1) Fire Risk Background; 2) General Assumptions; 3) Modeling Techniques; 4) Event Sequence Diagram (ESD); 5) Qualitative Fire Analysis; 6) Sample Qualitative Results for Fire Risk; 7) Qualitative Stowage Analysis; 8) Sample Qualitative Results for Non-Standard Stowage; and 9) Quantitative Analysis Basic Event Data.

Anton, Kellie e.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Lunar Landing Operational Risk Model

Characterizing the risk of spacecraft goes beyond simply modeling equipment reliability. Some portions of the mission require complex interactions between system elements that can lead to failure without an actual hardware fault. Landing risk is currently the least characterized aspect of the Altair lunar lander and appears to result from complex temporal interactions between pilot, sensors, surface characteristics and vehicle capabilities rather than hardware failures. The Lunar Landing Operational Risk Model (LLORM) seeks to provide rapid and flexible quantitative insight into the risks driving the landing event and to gauge sensitivities of the vehicle to changes in system configuration and mission operations. The LLORM takes a Monte Carlo based approach to estimate the operational risk of the Lunar Landing Event and calculates estimates of the risk of Loss of Mission (LOM) - Abort Required and is Successful, Loss of Crew (LOC) - Vehicle Crashes or Cannot Reach Orbit, and Success. The LLORM is meant to be used during the conceptual design phase to inform decision makers transparently of the reliability impacts of design decisions, to identify areas of the design which may require additional robustness, and to aid in the development and flow-down of requirements.

Mattenberger, Chris↗
NASA NTRS2000

The Critical Path Roadmap Project: Biomedical Risk Reduction for Extended Spaceflight

Human exploration of space requires an understanding of the risks to which crews will be exposed during such missions, and the mitigation of those risks to the fullest extent practical. This becomes a greater imperative as we prepare for interplanetary expeditions involving long periods in weightlessness in transit to and then from the destination (a planet, such as Mars, or perhaps a point in space, such as the Lagrangian point L2), and exposure to the unique environment of the destination itself. We need to know, more definitively, what the risks are to human health, safety, and performance, and how to prevent or counteract them throughout all phases of a long duration mission. The Johnson Space Center's Space and Life Sciences Directorate and the National Space Biomedical Research Institute (NSBRI) have implemented an effort to identify the most critical risks confronting humans on such mission and the types of research and technology efforts required to mitigate and otherwise reduce the probability and severity of those risks. This paper describes the "Critical Path Roadmap Project" to define, assess and prioritize the risks and present the results of the assessment with an emphasis on the research and technology priorities to meet the challenge of long duration human spaceflight mission.

Charles, John B.↗
NASA NTRS2011

C-Band Airport Surface Communications System Engineering-Initial High-Level Safety Risk Assessment and Mitigation

This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed C-band (5091- to 5150-MHz) airport surface communication system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents an initial high-level safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the C-band communication system after the profile is finalized and system rollout timing is determined. A security risk assessment has been performed by NASA as a parallel activity. While safety analysis is concerned with a prevention of accidental errors and failures, the security threat analysis focuses on deliberate attacks. Both processes identify the events that affect operation of the system; and from a safety perspective the security threats may present safety risks.

Zelkin, Natalie↗
NASA NTRS2011

Automation of PCXMC and ImPACT for NASA Astronaut Medical Imaging Dose and Risk Tracking

To automate astronaut organ and effective dose calculations from occupational X-ray and computed tomography (CT) examinations incorporating PCXMC and ImPACT tools and to estimate the associated lifetime cancer risk per the National Council on Radiation Protection & Measurements (NCRP) using MATLAB(R). Methods: NASA follows guidance from the NCRP on its operational radiation safety program for astronauts. NCRP Report 142 recommends that astronauts be informed of the cancer risks from reported exposures to ionizing radiation from medical imaging. MATLAB(R) code was written to retrieve exam parameters for medical imaging procedures from a NASA database, calculate associated dose and risk, and return results to the database, using the Microsoft .NET Framework. This code interfaces with the PCXMC executable and emulates the ImPACT Excel spreadsheet to calculate organ doses from X-rays and CTs, respectively, eliminating the need to utilize the PCXMC graphical user interface (except for a few special cases) and the ImPACT spreadsheet. Results: Using MATLAB(R) code to interface with PCXMC and replicate ImPACT dose calculation allowed for rapid evaluation of multiple medical imaging exams. The user inputs the exam parameter data into the database and runs the code. Based on the imaging modality and input parameters, the organ doses are calculated. Output files are created for record, and organ doses, effective dose, and cancer risks associated with each exam are written to the database. Annual and post-flight exposure reports, which are used by the flight surgeon to brief the astronaut, are generated from the database. Conclusions: Automating PCXMC and ImPACT for evaluation of NASA astronaut medical imaging radiation procedures allowed for a traceable and rapid method for tracking projected cancer risks associated with over 12,000 exposures. This code will be used to evaluate future medical radiation exposures, and can easily be modified to accommodate changes to the risk calculation procedure.

Bahadori, Amir↗
NASA NTRS2011

Risk Management of Jettisoned Objects in LEO

The construction and maintenance of the International Space Station (ISS) has led to the release of many objects into its orbital plane, usually during the course of an extra-vehicular activity (EVA). Such releases are often unintentional, but in a growing number of cases, the jettison has been intentional, conducted after a careful assessment of the net risk to the partnership and to other objects in space. Since its launch in 1998 the ISS has contributed on average at least one additional debris object that is simultaneously in orbit with the station, although the number varies widely from zero to eight at any one moment. All of these objects present potential risks to other objects in orbit. Whether it comes from known and tracked orbiting objects or from unknown or untrackable objects, collision with orbital debris can have disastrous consequences. Objects greater than 10cm are generally well documented and tracked, allowing orbiting spacecraft or satellites opportunities to perform evasive maneuvers (commonly known as Debris Avoidance Maneuvers, or DAMs) in the event that imminent collision is predicted. The issue with smaller debris; however, is that it is too numerous to be tracked effectively and yet still poses disastrous consequences if it intercepts a larger object. Due to the immense kinetic energy of any item in orbit, collision with debris as small as 1cm can have catastrophic consequences for many orbiting satellites or spacecraft. Faced with the growing orbital debris threat and the potentially catastrophic consequences of a collision-generated debris shower originating in an orbit crossing the ISS altitude band, in 2007 the ISS program manger asked program specialists to coordinate a multilateral jettison policy amongst the ISS partners. This policy would define the acceptable risk trade rationale for intentional release of a debris object, and other mandatory constraints on such jettisons to minimize the residual risks whenever a jettison was accepted. Although ISS-related debris often presents untenable risks to the EVA crew, IVA crew, or to a departing cargo vehicle for a controlled disposal, such released objects also present a ballistic nuisance to the visiting vehicle traffic, and a potential fragmentation threat to the hundreds of other functional and debris objects whose perigees lie below the ISS orbital altitude. Thus, every such jettison decision is a conscious risk trade.

Bacon, John B.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Defining the Relationship Between Biomarkers of Oxidative and Inflammatory Stress and the Risk for Atherosclerosis in Astronauts During and After Long-Duration Spaceflight

Future human space travel will primarily consist of long-duration missions aboard the International Space Station (ISS) or exploration class missions to Mars, its moons, or nearby asteroids. These missions will expose astronauts to increased risk of oxidative and inflammatory damage primarily from radiation, but also from psychological stress, reduced physical activity, diminished nutritional status, and, in the case of extravehicular activity, hyperoxic exposure. There is evidence that increased oxidative damage and inflammation can accelerate the development of atherosclerosis. PURPOSE The purpose of this proposal is to identify biomarkers of oxidative and inflammatory stress and to correlate them to indices of atherosclerosis risk before, during, and after long-duration spaceflight. METHODS To meet the objectives of the study, we will study astronauts before, during, and up to 5 years after long-duration missions aboard ISS. Biomarkers of oxidative and inflammatory stress, some of which we have previously shown to be elevated with spaceflight, will be measured before, during, and after spaceflight. Arterial structure will be monitored using ultrasound to measure carotid intima-medial thickness before, during, and after weightlessness. Carotid intima-medial thickness has been shown to be a better indicator than Framingham Risk scores for prediction of atherosclerosis. Arterial function will be monitored using brachial flow-mediated dilation before flight and after landing. Brachial flow-mediated dilation is a good index of endothelium-dependent vasodilation, which is a sensitive predictor of atherosclerotic risk. This is the first study to propose assessing atherosclerotic risk using biochemical, structural, and functional measures before, during, and immediately after spaceflight and structural functional measures for up to 5 years after landing. EXPECTED RESULTS We hypothesize that these biomarkers of oxidative and inflammatory stress will be increased with spaceflight and will correlate with increased carotid intima-medial thickness in- and postflight and with decreased flow-mediated dilation after the mission. Furthermore, we hypothesize that measures of oxidative stress will return to baseline after flight, but that biomarkers of inflammatory stress and vascular indices of atherosclerosis risk will remain elevated.

Lee, Stuart M. C.↗