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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 865 records · Page 48
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

State-Level Trends in Renewable Energy Procurement via Solar Installation versus Green Electricity

In recent years, options for procuring renewable energy have increased, ranging from rooftop solar installation to utility green pricing to Community Choice Aggregation. These options vary in terms of costs and benefits to the consumer as well as grid integration implications. However, little is known regarding how the presence of a wide range of voluntary utility-scale renewable procurement options as well as their growth could affect adoption of distributed residential solar. To examine this relationship, we fit a two-stage least squares random effects regression model on panel data from 2016 to 2019 for all fifty US states plus the District of Columbia, controlling for variables that measure state-level policies, economic factors, and resource availability. Although there was no evidence of a strong relationship between demand for utility-scale and distributed options across all states, the state-level correlations suggest a wide variation between states including a positive, zero or negative relationship between utility-scale and distributed generation.

consumer demand↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mapping foliar photosynthetic capacity in sub-tropical and tropical forests with UAS-based imaging spectroscopy: Scaling from leaf to canopy

Accurate understanding of the variability in foliar physiological traits across landscapes is critical to improve parameterization and evaluation of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) that seek to represent the response of terrestrial ecosystems to a changing climate. Numerous studies suggest imaging spectroscopy can characterize foliar biochemical and morphological traits at the canopy scale, but there is only limited evidence for retrieving canopy photosynthetic capacity (e.g., maximum carboxylation rate, V c,max and maximum electron transport rate, J max ). Moreover, the effect of canopy structure within forest communities on scaling up spectra-trait relationships from leaf to canopy level is not well known. To advance the spectra-trait approach and enable the estimation of key traits using remote sensing, we collected imaging spectroscopy data from an Unoccupied Aerial System (UAS) platform over two forest sites in China (a subtropical forest in Mt. Dinghu and a tropical rainforest in Xishuangbanna). At these sites, we also collected ground measurements of leaf spectra and traits, including biochemical (leaf nitrogen, phosphorus, chlorophyll, and water content), morphological (leaf mass per area, LMA) and physiological (V c,max25 and J max25 ) traits (n=135 tree-crowns from 42 species across two sites). Using a partial least-squares regression (PLSR) approach, we built and tested spectra-trait models with repeated cross-validation. The spectral models developed with leaf spectra were directly transferred to canopy spectra to evaluate the effect of canopy structure. Here we further applied canopy spectral models to map these traits at individual tree-crown scale. The results demonstrate that (1) UAS-based canopy spectra can be used to estimate V c,max (R 2 =0.55, nRMSE=11.79%), Jmax (R 2 =0.54, nRMSE=12.34%), and five additional foliar traits (R 2 =0.38-0.60, nRMSE=10.11-13.56%) at the tree-crown scale with demonstrated generalizability across two sites; (2) canopy structure strongly affects the spectratrait relationships from leaf to canopy level, but the effects vary considerably across foliar traits and cannot be well captured by the 4SAIL canopy radiative transfer model. UAS-based imaging spectroscopy maps large variability in all foliar traits (including physiological traits) with spatially explicit information, reproducing the field-observed inter- and intra-specific variations. These results demonstrate the capability of using UAS-based imaging spectroscopy for characterizing the variability of foliar physiological traits at individual tree-crown scale over forest landscapes and highlight the similar generalizability but different biophysical mechanisms underlying spectra-trait relationships at leaf and canopy levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Abiotic influences on continuous conifer forest structure across a subalpine watershed

Understanding the abiotic drivers of high-elevation forest physiognomy is essential for forecasting how mountain ecosystems will respond to emerging environmental pressures. Most prior studies of these relationships have relied on small samples of the full landscape, resulting in limited power to detect dominant covariates and their interactions. Here we report the first evaluation of abiotic influences on a complement of accurate, wall-to-wall estimates of conifer forest structure and composition at the watershed scale. In a subalpine conifer domain in the Colorado Rocky Mountains (USA), we developed a novel method for deriving stand structure metrics from waveform LiDAR data, which showed high fidelity with field inventory. We quantified the relationships between structural and compositional metrics and climate, topographic, edaphic, and geologic factors. Our results showed that peak snow water equivalent (SWE), snow disappearance rate, and elevation explained most of the variation in forest structure. The highest stand density, basal area, maximum canopy height, and quadratic mean diameter occurred in sites with SWE around one standard deviation below mean, but with long snow residence times. Stand density decreased linearly with elevation, while other metrics peaked between 3000 m and 3200 m. Substrate properties had weaker influence. Continuous mapping of through-canopy forest structure enabled our novel findings of the dominant role of snowpack in explaining structural and compositional variation, and of elevation thresholds. Our reproducible approach facilitates assessment of forest-topoclimate relationships in other conifer-dominated landscapes and improves understanding of the baseline patterns controlling forest structure, which is needed for predicting long-term ecological change.

forest ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Challenges in integrating dissolved organic matter chemodiversity into kinetic models of soil respiration

The chemodiversity of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in soil has been proposed to influence the microbial metabolism and fate of belowground organic carbon (C). However, integrating DOM chemistry into soil C cycle models to improve predictions of C stocks and fluxes—beyond simply considering DOM pool size—remains a challenge. While recent research suggests that incorporating DOM chemodiversity into models can improve predictions of microbial respiration, there is still a lack of mechanistic understanding describing how DOM chemodiversity affects microbial metabolism and soil respiration. Here, we evaluated whether DOM chemodiversity was a determinant of soil respiration using paired measurements of high-resolution DOM chemistry, obtained from Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS), and potential soil respiration rates from across the United States (U.S.), all data provided by the Molecular Observation Network. Our objectives were to (1) assess statistical relationships between DOM chemodiversity and microbial respiration, and (2) evaluate the ability of kinetic models to leverage DOM chemistry to explain empirical relationships found in statistical models. Statistical regressions revealed that DOM chemodiversity (alpha diversity) was nonlinearly related to potential soil respiration rates, both independently and through its interactions with DOM and total C concentrations. In soils with relatively high DOM but low total C concentrations, potential soil respiration rates were negatively correlated with DOM alpha diversity, whereas in soils with relatively low DOM and high total C concentrations showed the opposite trend. However, when metabolic transition theory kinetic models were modified to include chemodiversity, their performance was comparable to traditional Monod kinetics approaches, which simulate respiration rates as a function of DOM concentration. The inability to account for nonlinearities in DOM chemodiversity–respiration relationships highlight an opportunity to advance substrate uptake kinetics by establishing causal links between DOM chemodiversity, microbial metabolism trade-offs, and potential interactions under varied environmental conditions.

Bioenergetic model↗
DOE OSTI2024

A comparison of model validation approaches for echo state networks using climate model replicates

As global temperatures continue to rise, climate mitigation strategies such as stratospheric aerosol injections (SAI) are increasingly discussed, but the downstream effects of these strategies are not well understood. As such, there is interest in developing statistical methods to quantify the evolution of climate variable relationships during the time period surrounding an SAI. Feature importance applied to echo state network (ESN) models has been proposed as a way to understand the effects of SAI using a data-driven model. This approach depends on the ESN fitting the data well. If not, the feature importance may place importance on features that are not representative of the underlying relationships. Typically, time series prediction models such as ESNs are assessed using out-of-sample performance metrics that divide the times series into separate training and testing sets. However, this model assessment approach is geared towards forecasting applications and not scenarios such as the motivating SAI example where the objective is using a data driven model to capture variable relationships. Here, in this paper, we demonstrate a novel use of climate model replicates to investigate the applicability of the commonly used repeated hold-out model assessment approach for the SAI application. Simulations of an SAI are generated using a simplified climate model, and different initialization conditions are used to provide independent training and testing sets containing the same SAI event. The climate model replicates enable out-of-sample measures of model performance, which are compared to the single time series hold-out validation approach. For our case study, it is found that the repeated hold-out sample performance is comparable, but conservative, to the replicate out-of-sample performance when the training set contains enough time after the aerosol injection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Temporal variabilities of soil carbon dioxide fluxes from cornfield impacted by temperature and precipitation changes through high-frequent measurement and DAYCENT modelling

Soil carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from the field of corn (Zea mays L.) play an important role in global warming. This study investigated temporal variability of soil CO 2 fluxes (R s ) with soil temperature (T s ) and moisture (θ) and built DAYCENT models for predicting future impacts of climate changes on R s using the measured high-frequency data. R s trend was tested by Mann–Kendall and Sen Estimator. Predicted R s s under different climate scenarios were compared using Parallel-line Analysis. Herein, the findings indicated that daily R s exponentially increased with T s constrained by θ. During the θ of 27–31%, there was a strong exponential relationship between R s and T s , but the relationship was weaker for the θ of 38–41% and 22–26%. Soil environmental index (SEI, T s × θ) significantly impacted R s with linear regression R s 0.5 = 0.4599 + 0.002059 × SEI in 2008, 2009 and 2011. At the diurnal scale, there were different trends in R s s and relationships among R s and T s and θ in different years. Predicted yearly R s s, root R s s and corn yield in 2014–2049 increased with an increase in temperature scenarios, but the R s s significantly increased as temperature rose by 1°C or higher. Predicted yearly R s s, root R s s and yield reduced with precipitation scenario increase, and the root R s s and yield significantly diminished as precipitation increased by 15 and 30%. Predicted yearly R s from cornfields had a significantly increasing trend. Future research is needed to explore methods for mitigating cornfield R s and evaluating sensitivities of different cropland R s s to temperature changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Solvent Transport in Disordered and Dynamic Membrane Pores: Implications for Reverse Osmosis and Nanofiltration Membranes

Pressure-driven separations with nanoporous membranes, such as reverse osmosis and nanofiltration, play a vital role in addressing water scarcity and enabling resource recovery. Understanding water or solvent transport in membrane pores is essential for advancing membrane separation technologies. A key question in transport modeling is to establish a relationship between solvent permeability and membrane porous structure properties, such as porosity or pore size. The nano- and subnanometer pores in polymeric membranes such as reverse osmosis and nanofiltration membranes are highly tortuous and dynamically connected, which challenges the conventional methods of transport modeling. This study addresses this challenge by developing a theoretical framework to describe solvent transport through membranes with dynamic and disordered porous structure. Specifically, we propose a lattice model to describe the pore network, while preserving the viscous nature of solvent permeation. We further establish a relationship between solvent permeability and membrane porosity or pore size, which is validated by molecular dynamics simulations and experimental data. By integrating this relationship into the solution-friction model, we define pore connectivity and local friction coefficient to quantify the impact of pore structure on solvent permeability. Our analysis highlights the dominant influence of pore connectivity on the permeability of reverse osmosis and nanofiltration membranes, particularly when the pore size approaches the dimensions of solvent molecules. Overall, this study provides critical insights into water and solvent transport mechanisms in nanoporous membranes, opening the door for strategies to substantially enhance membrane performance.

membranes↗
DOE OSTI2020

Automated Identification of Molecular Crystals’ Packing Motifs

Packing motifs—patterns in how molecules orient relative to one another in a crystal structure—are an important concept in many subdisciplines of materials science because of correlations observed between specific packing motifs and properties of interest. That said, packing motif data sets have remained small and noisy due to intensive manual labeling processes and insufficient labeling schemes. The most prominent labeling algorithms calculate relative interplanar angles of nearest neighbor molecules to determine the packing motif of a molecular crystal, but this simple approach can fail when neighbors are naively sampled isotropically around the crystal structure. To remedy this issue, here we propose an optimization algorithm, which rotates the molecular crystal structure to find representative molecules that inform the packing motif. We package this algorithm into an automated framework—Autopack—which both optimally rotates the crystal structure and labels the packing motif based on the appropriate neighboring molecules. In this work, we detail the Autopack framework and its performance, which shows improvements compared to previous state-of-the-art labeling methods, providing the first quantitative point of comparison for packing motif labeling algorithms. Furthermore, using Autopack (available at https://ipo.llnl.gov/technologies/software/autopack), we perform the first large-scale study of potential relationships between chemicals’ compositions and packing motifs, which shows that these relationships are more complex than previously hypothesized from studies that used only tens of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon molecules. Autopack’s capabilities help pose next steps for crystal engineering research focusing not only on a molecule’s adoption of a specific packing motif but also on new structure–property relationships.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Capacitance of Carbon Nanotube/Graphene Composite Electrodes with [BMIM + ][BF$_4^–$]/Acetonitrile: Fixed Voltage Molecular Dynamics Simulations

The capacitance of nanoporous carbon electrode materials is dictated by the physical interactions with electrolyte ions and molecules at the accessible interior electrode surface. While significant progress has been made in designing and synthesizing carbon materials with well-defined and relatively homogeneous nanoporosity, the majority of materials remain heterogeneous, and the resulting properties reflect an average over this distribution. In this regard, computer simulations can be a valuable tool to predict or validate structure/property relationships by systematically investigating well-defined, model electrode morphologies. In this work, we utilize fixed-voltage molecular dynamics simulations to predict structure/capacitance relationships for five different model morphologies of carbon nanotube/graphene (CNT/G) composite electrodes with 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium tetrafluoroborate/acetonitrile electrolyte. The CNT/G electrode models are inspired by experimental “layer-by-layer” syntheses and strike a balance between realism and computational tractability. Comparison between different model electrode architectures elucidates important structure/property relationships. We find that CNT/graphene contact points serve as “hot spots” with significantly enhanced charge separation relative to the rest of the electrode. Furthermore, we demonstrate a specific nanoconfinement motif that provides substantial 3–4$\times$ enhancement of local capacitance, resulting in a ~40% increase of the total electrode differential capacitance. Because the accessible surface area of the model CNT/G electrodes is precisely determined, a comparison of per-area capacitance across systems is unambiguous. Our results thus complement a prior computational demonstration of capacitance enhancement in nanoconfinement while elucidating additional interaction motifs at CNT/G electrochemical interfaces.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Molecular Insight into the β-Sheet Twist and Related Morphology of Self-Assembled Peptide Amphiphile Ribbons

Self-assembly of high-aspect-ratio filaments containing β-sheets has attracted much attention due to potential use in bioengineering and biomedicine. However, precisely predicting the assembled morphologies remains a grand challenge because of insufficient understanding of the self-assembly process. We employed an atomistic model to study the self-assembly of peptide amphiphiles (PAs) containing valine–glutamic acid (VE) dimeric repeats. By changing of the sequence length, the assembly morphology changes from flat ribbon to left-handed twisted ribbon, implying a relationship between β-sheet twist and strength of interstrand hydrogen bonds. The calculations are used to quantify this relationship including both magnitude and sign of the ribbon twist angle. Interestingly, a change in chirality is observed when we introduce the RGD epitope into the C-terminal of VE repeats, suggesting arginine and glycine’s role in suppressing right-handed β-sheet formation. Furthermore, this study provides insight into the relationship between β-sheet twist and self-assembled nanostructures including a possible design rule for PA self-assembly.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Introducing Molecular Hypernetworks for Discovery in Multidimensional Metabolomics Data

Orthogonal separations of data from high-resolution mass spectrometry can provide insight into sample composition and address challenges of complete annotation of molecules in untargeted metabolomics. “Molecular networks” (MNs), as used in the Global Natural Products Social Molecular Networking platform, are a prominent strategy for exploring and visualizing molecular relationships and improving annotation. MNs are mathematical graphs showing the relationships between measured multidimensional data features. MNs also show promise for using network science algorithms to automatically identify targets for annotation candidates and to dereplicate features associated with a single molecular identity. Here, this paper introduces “molecular hypernetworks” (MHNs) as more complex MN models able to natively represent multiway relationships among observations. Compared to MNs, MHNs can more parsimoniously represent the inherent complexity present among groups of observations, initially supporting improved exploratory data analysis and visualization. MHNs also promise to increase confidence in annotation propagation, for both human and analytical processing. We first illustrate MHNs with simple examples, and build them from liquid chromatography- and ion mobility spectrometry-separated MS data. We then describe a method to construct MHNs directly from existing MNs as their “clique reconstructions”, demonstrating their utility by comparing examples of previously published graph-based MNs to their respective MHNs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Microstructural Assessment of Molybdenum Disulfide Coatings Using Nanoindentation Hardness

MoS 2 coatings are used extensively in aerospace and defense applications due to their ultralow friction and high wear resistance. Burnished and resin-bonded MoS 2 coatings are commonly used in these applications due to simplicity in deposition and history of use, despite issues with consistency in coating properties and performance. Physical vapor deposition (PVD) of MoS 2 thin films has emerged as a process alternative in the past 50 years, promising far greater control over film structure and composition but at a greater cost. Despite PVD’s benefits, hesitance to adoption persists in high-consequence applications, not only due to increased costs but variability in resulting coating properties. These variations in properties and subsequent performance are in part due to the complexity of the PVD process and the sensitive interplay between coating process-structure-property relationships. This work aims to demystify the remaining uncertainties of the process-structure-property relationships in PVD MoS 2 . The microstructure and mechanical and tribological properties of 61 different PVD pure MoS 2 coatings are examined herein. Emphasis has been placed on developing performance-based (i.e., hardness, modulus) metrics that can assess microstructural changes (density, orientation, and crystallinity) and be utilized to accelerate process development and coating optimization. Relationships established within suggest that nanoindentation hardness can be used to infer coating performance (i.e., wear rate) and properties (i.e., density, crystalline texture, and stoichiometry). Furthermore, this work demonstrates that PVD MoS 2 coatings close to the theoretical density of MoS 2 consistently have the best tribological performance and can be reliably identified by their hardness.

MoS2↗
DOE OSTI2022

High Throughput Data-Driven Design of Laser-Crystallized 2D MoS 2 Chemical Sensors: A Demonstration for NO 2 Detection

High throughput characterization and processing techniques are becoming increasingly necessary to navigate multivariable, data-driven design challenges for sensors and electronic devices. For two-dimensional materials, device performance is highly dependent upon a vast array of material properties including the number of layers, lattice strain, carrier concentration, defect density, and grain structure. In this work, laser crystallization was used to locally pattern and transform hundreds of regions of amorphous MoS 2 thin films into 2D 2H-MoS 2 . Here a high throughput Raman spectroscopy approach was subsequently used to assess the process-dependent structural and compositional variations for each illuminated region, yielding over 6000 distinct nonresonant, resonant, and polarized Raman spectra. The rapid generation of a comprehensive library of structural and compositional data elucidated important trends between structure–property processing relationships involving laser-crystallized MoS 2 , including the relationships between grain size, grain orientation, and intrinsic strain. Moreover, extensive analysis of structure/property relationships allowed for intelligent design and evaluation of major contributions to device performance in MoS 2 chemical sensors. In particular, it is found that NO 2 sensor performance is strongly dependent on the orientation of the MoS 2 grains relative to the crystal plane.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Shallow Rate-Redox Potential Scaling in Aqueous Molecular Oxygen Reduction Electrocatalysis Across a Family of Iron Macrocycles

Rate-overpotential scaling relationships have been employed widely to understand trends in oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) electrocatalysis by dissolved metal macrocycles in organic electrolytes. Similar scaling relationships remain unknown for surface-adsorbed ORR electrocatalysts in the acidic aqueous environments germane to proton-exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells. Herein, we examine ORR catalysis in aqueous perchloric acid media for a structurally diverse array of iron macrocycle complexes adsorbed on Vulcan carbon black. The macrocycles encompass Fe– N 4 , Fe–N 2 N' 2 and Fe–N x C 4-x motifs bearing pyrrolic, pyridinic, and N-heterocyclic carbene (NHC) moieties in the primary ligation sphere, giving rise to a 670 mV range in Fe(III/II) redox potentials, E Fe(III/II) . Experimental Tafel data in the micropolarization regime were extrapolated to the E Fe(III/II) to furnish estimated per-site-normalized current density (j per-site ) values that span ~4.6 orders of magnitude across the family of compounds. Despite the structural diversity of this family of compounds, extrapolated j per-site values correlate with the Fe(III/II) redox potentials in a roughly log-linear fashion with a shallow scaling factor of approximately 145 mV/decade. Further, these findings highlight that negative shifts in E Fe(III/II) lead to diminishing returns in catalytic rate promotion and suggest that changes to the primary ligating environment in a macrocycle are insufficient to break fundamental rate-potential scaling relationships in aqueous ORR catalysis. Together these studies motivate the further development of higher-potential iron complexes that employ motifs beyond the equatorial ligation plane to enhance ORR catalysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging Triphenylphosphine-Containing Polymers to Explore Design Principles for Protein-Mimetic Catalysts

Complex interactions between noncoordinating residues are significant yet commonly overlooked components of macromolecular catalyst function. While these interactions have been demonstrated to impact binding affinities and catalytic rates in metalloenzymes, the roles of similar structural elements in synthetic polymeric catalysts remain underexplored. Using a model Suzuki–Miyuara cross-coupling reaction, we performed a series of systematic studies to probe the interconnected effects of metal–ligand cross-links, electrostatic interactions, and local rigidity in polymer catalysts. To achieve this, a novel bifunctional triphenylphosphine acrylamide (BisTPPAm) monomer was synthesized and evaluated alongside an analogous monofunctional triphenylphosphine acrylamide (TPPAm). In model copolymer catalysts, increased initial reaction rates were observed for copolymers untethered by Pd complexation (BisTPPAm-containing) compared to Pd-cross-linked catalysts (TPPAm-containing). Further, incorporating local rigidity through secondary structure-like and electrostatic interactions revealed nonmonotonic relationships between composition and the reaction rate, demonstrating the potential for tunable behavior through secondary-sphere interactions. Lastly, through rigorous cheminformatics featurization strategies and statistical modeling, we quantitated relationships between chemical descriptors of the substrate and reaction conditions on catalytic performance. Collectively, these results provide insights into relationships among the composition, structure, and function of protein-mimetic catalytic copolymers.

Catalysts↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying the Influences of Epoxide Binding in Epoxide/CO 2 Ring Opening Copolymerization Catalysis

Understanding and predicting the effect of epoxide structure on the rate of polymerization in epoxide/CO 2 ring opening copolymerization catalysis is a long-standing challenge. Here, a known highly active Co(III)K(I) catalyst is used to investigate the influences of six different epoxides' binding strengths on their rates of copolymerization. Since calculations and experiments indicate that studying the catalytically relevant Co(III)−epoxide adduct directly is experimentally challenging, epoxide−catalyst binding interactions are quantified using a Co(II)K(I) complex to model the key catalytic intermediate. Epoxide−catalyst coordination is investigated using UV−vis spectroscopy titrations which provide fast and effective determination of association or binding constants. The epoxide−catalyst equilibrium constants show a clear exponential correlation with copolymerization rates and a new catalyst performance linear free energy relationship is revealed. Epoxides exhibiting stronger catalyst binding constants show higher copolymerization rates. The structure−activity correlation is consistent with the polymerization kinetics, mechanism and DFT calculations. Both the methods to investigate epoxide−catalyst coordination and the linear free energy relationship are shown to apply to the series of six epoxides and a second Co(III)K(I) catalyst. These structure− performance relationships are likely applicable to other transition metal catalysts and should expedite future epoxide and catalyst selection to make useful poly(carbonate) materials.

catalysts↗
DOE OSTI2026

Chemically Separable Ruthenium Hydride Isomers with Distinct Hydride Transfer Properties

Transition metal hydrides are key intermediates in biological and industrial catalysis, where control over hydride donor ability (hydricity) is essential for optimizing reactivity. Herein, we report a series of isomeric ruthenium hydrides in which the ligand trans to the ruthenium hydride bond–either an N-heterocyclic carbene or pyridine–modulates the thermodynamic hydricity by up to 8 kcal mol –1 . These hydrides exhibited distinct reactivity toward CO 2 and various organic hydride acceptors, enabling detailed kinetic and mechanistic analysis. Stopped-flow experiments, isotopic labeling, and computational studies supported an outer-sphere hydride transfer mechanism. Linear free energy relationships (LFERs) and Marcus relationships were utilized to correlate the changes in thermodynamics and kinetics, revealing that ligands with strong trans effects and trans influence can disrupt conventional scaling relationships, which can be a powerful strategy for promoting new reactivity paradigms in hydride transfer reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Joint Bayesian Inference for Near-Surface Explosion Yield and Height-of-Burst

Forensic capabilities to understand chemical and nuclear explosions are greatly aided by an accurate estimate of explosive yield with uncertainty. The relationship between explosive size and geophysical observations of seismic, acoustic, and optical waves can be exploited to provide an estimate of yield. Any near-surface yield estimate is complicated by the surface interaction, so an estimate for the explosion height-of-burst is necessarily included in the relationship. Additionally, the relationship dictates a trade-off between estimates of yield and height-of-burst. Fortunately, the surface interaction for each type of observation is different, which breaks the trade-off, and the inclusion of height-of-burst with multiple data types improves yield estimation. We define simple parametric forward models to relate seismoäcoustoöptic observations from a data set of known explosive yields and height-of-bursts. The parameters of the models and a prediction for the yield and height-of-burst of a new event can then be estimated given new observations via Bayesian inference. We report posterior distribution estimates of the parametric models using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling technique. These models are then used to predict the yield and height-of-burst of SUGAR, a historical near-surface nuclear explosion, using its reported historical observations. The reported yield of 1.2 ktonne Trinitrotoluene (TNT)-equivalent (Department of Energy, 2015) is within the estimated posterior. Yield uncertainty can be estimated from the spread of the posterior, which is between 0.9 and 2.1 ktonne TNT-equivalent. The posterior for height-of-burst has a wider range between 10 m below and 8 m above ground that includes the true height-of-burst of 1 m.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗