Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “regression”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 865 records · Page 48
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Absorption Spectroscopy for Quantitative Prediction of Lanthanide Concentrations in the 3LiCl – 2CsCl Eutectic at 723 K

This paper will be submitted to the ACS journal, Analytical Chemistry. Abstract. The absorption spectra for single component mixtures of erbium(III) chloride, holmium(III) chloride, neodymium(III) chloride, praseodymium(III) chloride, samarium(III) chloride and thulium(III) chloride were obtained in 3 LiCl – 2 CsCl at 723 K. The absorption spectra were collected at various concentrations from 0 mM to approximately 200 mM (above which the solutions became saturated). Using this data and Beer’s law, molar absorptivities for the absorbance peaks for each lanthanide(III) chloride were obtained. Using the collection of single component spectra, multivariate regression models were created for each lanthanide metal studied. These models were validated against a new set of absorption spectra containing multicomponent mixtures of the selected lanthanides in the molten salt solution. Results of the regression models and predictions on the validation set of data are presented.

Absorption spectroscopy, molten salt, process moni↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simultaneous quantification of uranium( VI ), samarium, nitric acid, and temperature with combined ensemble learning, laser fluorescence, and Raman scattering for real-time monitoring

In this work, laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy (LIFS), Raman spectroscopy, and a stacked regression ensemble was developed for near real-time quantification of uranium(VI) (1–100 μg mL –1 ), samarium (0–200 μg mL –1 ) and nitric acid (0.1–4 M) with varying temperature (20 °C–45 °C). LIFS applications range from fundamental lab-scale studies to real-time process monitoring at industrial levels, such as nuclear reprocessing applications, provided the phenomena affecting the fluorescence spectrum are accounted for (e.g., absorption, quenching, complexation). Multiple chemometric models were examined and compared to a more traditional multivariate regression approach called partial least squares (PLS). Results obtained on synthetic samples selected using D-optimal experimental design indicated that a stacked regression method, which included ridge regression, random forest, PLS, and an eXtreme gradient boost algorithm, successfully measured uranium(VI) concentrations directly in nitric acid without measuring luminescence lifetimes or standard addition. The top model resulted in percent root-mean-square error of prediction values of 5.2, 1.9, 3.0, and 2.3% for U(VI), Sm 3+ , HNO 3 , and temperature, respectively. The approach may be useful for quantifying fluorescent fission products (e.g., Sm 3+ ) to provide information on burnup of irradiated nuclear fuel. This novel framework reinforces the applicability of LIFS for real-time applications in nuclear fuel cycle applications.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2025

SLAB: simultaneous labeling and binding affinity prediction for protein–ligand structures

Machine learning models are often used as scoring functions to predict the binding affinity of a protein–ligand complex. These models are trained with limited amounts of data with experimentally measured binding affinity values. A large number of compounds are labeled inactive through single-concentration screens without measuring binding affinities. These inactive compounds, along with the active ones, can be used to train binary classification models, while regression models are trained using compounds with binding affinities only. However, the classification and regression tasks are often handled separately, without sharing the learned feature representations. In this paper, we propose a novel model architecture that jointly performs regression and classification objectives, aiming to maximize data utilization and improve predictive performance by leveraging two complementary tasks. In our setup, the regression yields the binding affinity, whereas the classification task yields the label as active or inactive. We demonstrate our method using PDBbind, the standard 3D structure database, as well as a dataset of flavivirus protease compounds with binding affinity data. Our experiments show that the new joint training strategy improves the accuracy of the model, increasing applicability in various practical drug screening scenarios.

Biological and medical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2018

Comparative Performance Evaluation of High-performance Data Transfer Tools

Data transfer in wide-area networks has been long studied in different contexts, from data sharing among data centers to online access to scientific data. Many software tools and platforms have been developed to facilitate easy, reliable, fast, and secure data transfer over wide area networks, such as GridFTP, FDT, bbcp, mdtmFTP, and XDD. However, few studies have shown the full capabilities of existing data transfer tools from the perspective of whether such tools have fully adopted state-of-the-art techniques through meticulous comparative evaluations. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of the four highperformance data transfer tools (GridFTP, FDT, mdtmFTP, and XDD) in various environments. Our evaluation suggests that each tool has strengths and weaknesses. FDT and GridFTP perform consistently in diverse environments. XDD and mdtmFTP show improved performance in limited environments and datasets during our evaluation. Unlike other studies on data transfer tools, we also evaluate the predictability of the tools' performance, an important factor for scheduling different stages of science workflows. Performance predictability also helps in (auto)tuning the configurable parameters of the data transfer tool. We apply statistical learning techniques such as linear/polynomial regression, and k-nearest neighbors (kNN), to assess the performance predictability of each tool using its control parameters. Our results show that we can achieve good prediction performance for GridFTP and mdtmFTP using linear regression and kNN, respectively.

Nadig, Deepak↗
DOE OSTI2017

On Analytics of File Transfer Rates over Dedicated Wide-Area Connections

File transfers between the decentralized storage sites over dedicated wide-area connections are becoming increasingly important in high-performance computing and big data scenarios. Designing such scientific workflows for large file transfers is extremely challenging as they depend on the file, I/O, host, and local- and wide-area network subsystems, and their interactions. To gain insights into file-transfer rate profiles, we develop polynomial, bagging, and boosting regression models for Lustre and XFS file transfer measurements, which are collected using XDD over a suite of 10 Gbps connections with 0-366 ms round trip times (RTTs). In addition to overall trends and analytics, these regressions also provide file-transfer rate estimates for RTTs and number of parallel flows at which measurements might not have been collected. They show that bagging and boosting techniques provide closer data fits than the polynomial regression. We develop probabilistic bounds on the generalization error of these methods, which combined with the cross-validation error establish that former two are more accurate estimators than the polynomial regression. In addition, we present a method to efficiently determine the number of parallel flows to achieve a peak file-transfer rate using fewer than full sweep measurements; in our measurements, the peak is achieved in 96% of cases with 15-25% of measurements of a full sweep.

Sen, Satyabrata↗
DOE OSTI2019

Deep Learning for Vertex Reconstruction of Neutrino-nucleus Interaction Events with Combined Energy and Time Data

We present a deep learning approach for vertex reconstruction of neutrino-nucleus interaction events, a problem in the domain of high energy physics. In this approach, we combine both energy and timing data that are collected in the MIN-ERvA detector to perform classification and regression tasks. We show that the resulting network achieves higher accuracy than previous results while requiring a smaller model size and less training time. In particular, the proposed model outperforms the state-of-the-art by 4.00% on classification accuracy. For the regression task, our model achieves 0.9919 on the coefficient of determination, higher than the previous work (0.96).

Song, Linghao↗
DOE OSTI2017

Modeling Stationary Lithium-Ion Batteries for Optimization and Predictive Control

Accurately modeling stationary battery storage behavior is crucial to understand and predict its limitations in demand-side management scenarios. In this paper, a lithium-ion battery model was derived to estimate lifetime and state-of-charge for building-integrated use cases. The proposed battery model aims to balance speed and accuracy when modeling battery behavior for real-time predictive control and optimization. In order to achieve these goals, a mixed modeling approach was taken, which incorporates regression fits to experimental data and an equivalent circuit to model battery behavior. A comparison of the proposed battery model output to actual data from the manufacturer validates the modeling approach taken in the paper. Additionally, a dynamic test case demonstrates the effects of using regression models to represent internal resistance and capacity fading.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2017

Machine Learning-Based Temperature Prediction for Runtime Thermal Management Across System Components

Elevated temperatures limit the peak performance of systems because of frequent interventions by thermal throttling. Non-uniform thermal states across system nodes also cause performance variation within seemingly equivalent nodes leading to significant degradation of overall performance. In this paper we present a framework for creating a lightweight thermal prediction system suitable for run-time management decisions. We pursue two avenues to explore optimized lightweight thermal predictors. First, we use feature selection algorithms to improve the performance of previously designed machine learning methods. Second, we develop alternative methods using neural network and linear regression-based methods to perform a comprehensive comparative study of prediction methods. We show that our optimized models achieve improved performance with better prediction accuracy and lower overhead as compared with the Gaussian process model proposed previously. Specifically we present a reduced version of the Gaussian process model, a neural network-based model, and a linear regression-based model. Using the optimization methods, we are able to reduce the average prediction errors in the Gaussian process from 4: 2 degrees C to 2: 9 degrees C. We also show that the newly developed models using neural network and Lasso linear regression have average prediction errors of 2: 9 degrees C and 3: 8 degrees C respectively. The prediction overheads are 0.22, 0.097, and 0.026 ms per prediction for reduced Gaussian process, neural network, and Lasso linear regression models, respectively, compared with 0.57 ms per prediction for the previous Gaussian process model. We have implemented our proposed thermal prediction models on a two-node system configuration to help identify the optimal task placement. The task placement identified by the models reduces the average system temperature by up to 11: 9 degrees C without any performance degradation. Furthermore, these models respectively achieve 75, 82.5, and 74.17 percent success rates in correctly pointing to those task placements with better thermal response, compared with 72.5 percent success for the original model in achieving the same objective. Lastly, we extended our analysis to a 16-node system and we were able to train models and execute them in real time to guide task migration and achieve on average 17 percent reduction in the overall system cooling power.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-J-256: Predicting Metastasis-Free Survival of Rectal Cancer Patients Treated with Neoadjuvant Chemo-Radiotherapy by Data-Mining of CT Texture Features of Primary Lesions

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between computed tomographic (CT) texture features of primary lesions and metastasis-free survival for rectal cancer patients; and to develop a datamining prediction model using texture features. Methods: A total of 220 rectal cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemo-radiotherapy (CRT) were enrolled in this study. All patients underwent CT scans before CRT. The primary lesions on the CT images were delineated by two experienced oncologists. The CT images were filtered by Laplacian of Gaussian (LoG) filters with different filter values (1.0–2.5: from fine to coarse). Both filtered and unfiltered images were analyzed using Gray-level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM) texture analysis with different directions (transversal, sagittal, and coronal). Totally, 270 texture features with different species, directions and filter values were extracted. Texture features were examined with Student’s t-test for selecting predictive features. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was performed upon the selected features to reduce the feature collinearity. Artificial neural network (ANN) and logistic regression were applied to establish metastasis prediction models. Results: Forty-six of 220 patients developed metastasis with a follow-up time of more than 2 years. Sixtyseven texture features were significantly different in t-test (p<0.05) between patients with and without metastasis, and 12 of them were extremely significant (p<0.001). The Area-under-the-curve (AUC) of ANN was 0.72, and the concordance index (CI) of logistic regression was 0.71. The predictability of ANN was slightly better than logistic regression. Conclusion: CT texture features of primary lesions are related to metastasisfree survival of rectal cancer patients. Both ANN and logistic regression based models can be developed for prediction.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Online Learning for Commercial Buildings

There has been an increased interest in designing optimization based techniques for the control of building heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems for either improving the energy efficiency of buildings or providing ancillary services to the electric grid. The performance of such prediction-based control techniques heavily rely on the model of a building’s thermal dynamics. However, the development of high fidelity building thermal dynamic models is challenging given the presence of large uncertainties that affect thermal loads in buildings such as building envelope performance, thermal mass, internal heat gains as well as occupants' behavior. In this paper, we propose a method to identify both a resistive-capacitive parametric model, and non -parametric load uncertainties using measured input-output data. The parametric model is obtained using semi-parametric regression, whereas the non-parametric part is based on Random Forest, where regression trees are used to derive the dependency of non-parametric terms on both building operation parameters and ambient temperature. The effectiveness of the method is evaluated using experimental data collected from an office building at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) campus. The proposed methodology was observed to provide improved accuracy over appropriate baseline strategies, when predicting indoor air temperatures.

Dong, Jin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using Median Point in Keeling Plot to Reduce the Uncertainty of the Isotopic Composition of Evapotranspiration

Abstract The isotopic composition of evapotranspirationδ ET is a crucial parameter in isotope-based evapotranspiration (ET) partitioning and moisture recycling studies. The Keeling plot method is the most prevalent method to calculateδ ET , though it contains large extrapolated uncertainties from the least squares regression. Traditional Keeling regression uses the mean point of individual measurements. Here, a modified Keeling plot framework was proposed using the median point of individual measurements. We tested theδ ET uncertainty using the mean point [σ ET (mean)] and median point [σ ET (median)]. Multiple resolutions of input and output data from six independent sites were used to test the performance of the two methods. Theσ ET (mean) would be greater thanσ ET (median) when the mean value of inverse vapor concentration () is greater than the median value of inverse vapor concentration []. When applying the filter ofr 2 > 0.8, around 70% ofσ ET (mean) was greater thanσ ET (median). This phenomenon might be due to the normality of the vapor concentrationC υ producing the asymmetric distribution of 1/C υ . The median method could perform significantly better than the mean method when inputting high-resolution measurements (e.g., 1 Hz) and when the water vapor concentrationC υ is relatively low. Compared to the mean method, applying the median method could on average reduce 6.88% of ET partitioning uncertainties and could on average reduce 9.00% of moisture recycling uncertainties. This study provided a new insight of the Keeling plot method and emphasized handling model output uncertainty from multiple perspectives instead of only from input parameters.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of advanced machine learning models for analysis of plutonium surrogate optical emission spectra

This work investigates and applies machine learning paradigms seldom seen in analytical spectroscopy for quantification of gallium in cerium matrices via processing of laser-plasma spectra. Ensemble regressions, support vector machine regressions, Gaussian kernel regressions, and artificial neural network techniques are trained and tested on cerium-gallium pellet spectra. A thorough hyperparameter optimization experiment is conducted initially to determine the best design features for each model. The optimized models are evaluated for sensitivity and precision using the limit of detection (LoD) and root mean-squared error of prediction (RMSEP) metrics, respectively. Gaussian kernel regression yields the superlative predictive model with an RMSEP of 0.33% and an LoD of 0.015% for quantification of Ga in a Ce matrix. This study concludes that these machine learning methods could yield robust prediction models for rapid quality control analysis of plutonium alloys.

Rao, Ashwin P. (ORCID:0000000319312568)↗
DOE OSTI2016

Effect of Accounting for Crash Severity on the Relationship between Mass Reduction and Crash Frequency and Risk per Crash

Previous analyses have indicated that mass reduction is associated with an increase in crash frequency (crashes per VMT), but a decrease in fatality or casualty risk once a crash has occurred, across all types of light-duty vehicles. These results are counter-intuitive: one would expect that lighter, and perhaps smaller, vehicles have better handling and shorter braking distances, and thus should be able to avoid crashes that heavier vehicles cannot. And one would expect that heavier vehicles would have lower risk once a crash has occurred than lighter vehicles. However, these trends occur under several alternative regression model specifications. This report tests whether these results continue to hold after accounting for crash severity, by excluding crashes that result in relatively minor damage to the vehicle(s) involved in the crash. Excluding non-severe crashes from the initial LBNL Phase 2 and simultaneous two-stage regression models for the most part has little effect on the unexpected relationships observed in the baseline regression models. This finding suggests that other subtle differences in vehicles and/or their drivers, or perhaps biases in the data reported in state crash databases, are causing the unexpected results from the regression models.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Energy Intensity Baselining and Tracking Guidance

Each company joining the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Better Buildings, Better Plants Program (Better Plants) commits to establishing an energy consumption and energy intensity (EI) baseline and to tracking its energy performance over a 10-year period against that baseline. The baseline must reflect a company’s energy consumption over a 12-month period, covering all its U.S.-based operations. Energy consumption is calculated by fuel type in terms of primary energy (also known as source energy). EI is broadly defined as the amount of energy consumed per unit of output produced. For this guidance document and for the program, the term energy performance represents an evaluation of a facility’s capacity to use energy efficiently. Metrics used to assess a facility’s energy performance can include EI, energy consumption, improvements in EI, etc. Establishing an energy baseline and tracking system is a critical first step in effectively managing energy use. Developing a baseline can help a company understand energy use within the corporation and give it a point of comparison to evaluate future efforts to improve energy performance. It can also support efforts to validate a company’s energy management activities, improve comparative analyses when using benchmarks, and help in predicting future energy needs. In addition, a company that normalizes its performance data can determine highly defensible measures of energy savings generated through implemented energy efficiency projects. Establishing a baseline and tracking energy performance is also a requirement for ISO 50001 certification. Although basic energy data can be collected through utility bills, most manufacturers will have to perform additional analyses to develop accurate and robust energy baselines and tracking systems. Energy is consumed in many ways within the manufacturing sector and can come from multiple sources. Energy is sometimes generated and sold to other parties or captured and reused on-site. External events can exert a significant impact on a facility or company’s energy use independent of any purposeful efforts to improve energy efficiency. Operational changes, such as production shifts—which may be inevitable for some companies over the 10-year period covered by the program—can also make a big difference in energy use. Since Better Plants asks companies to account for all their U.S.-based operations, mergers, acquisitions, and divestitures can also have significant implications for a company’s energy metrics. This document aims to demystify the sometimes complex baselining process. It devotes special attention to the task of normalizing and adjusting energy consumption to account for external factors, such as weather and production changes. A key recommendation is that companies use regression analysis to normalize their energy consumption data whenever possible. Regression analysis is a statistical technique that estimates the dependence of a variable (i.e., energy use in the context of Better Plants) on one or more independent variables such as ambient temperature, while controlling for the influence of other variables at the same time. A properly developed regression analysis can provide a reliable estimate of energy savings resulting from energy improvement strategies and projects by accounting for the effects of variables such as annual production levels and weather. DOE has developed a companion Energy Performance Indicator software tool (EnPI) to simplify the baselining process. This tool can run regression models, calculate changes in EI at the facility level, and automatically compile facility-level data into a corporate-wide metric. Note that although the relevant equations used to calculate EI are provided in this document, the EnPI tool will automatically perform most calculations for the user. Additionally, Better Plants Partners (Partners) can call on their Technical Account Manager (TAM) to help them establish a baseline and assist with the necessary calculations to track progress.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Verification Testing of OLI Systems Mixed Solvent Electrolyte Model for the Na-K-Mg-Ca-H-Cl-SO 4 -OH-HCO 3 -CO 3 -CO 2 -H 2 ) System to High Ionic Strength at 25°C

This technical report summarizes model verification results and summary statistics for 41 evaporite mineral solubility cases evaluated by Savannah River National Laboratory using OLI Systems’ aqueous electrolyte thermodynamic modeling software. The 41 verification cases containing a total of 60 solubility curves comprise mineral solubility data from low to high ionic strength at 25°C for the eight-component system Na-K-Mg-Ca-H-Cl-SO 4 -OH-HCO 3 -CO 3 -CO 2 -H 2 O as reported by Harvie et al. (1984). Thermodynamic calculations were executed using OLI Systems’ Stream Analyzer computation module within the OLI Studio software platform (Ver. 11.0, Rev. 11.0.1.9). The Mixed Solvent Electrolyte (MSE) thermodynamic framework was chosen for this investigation because of its superiority in modeling high ionic-strength inorganic salt solutions and actinide redox chemistry and solubility, both of which are relevant to the geological repository conditions at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in Carlsbad, New Mexico. Mineral solubility data in various inorganic salt solutions were digitized and extracted from figures generated by Harvie et al. (1984). For each of the 60 solubility curves, a case-specific chemistry model and input file were generated in OLI Studio using OLI Stream Analyzer and the MSE (H 3 O + ion) public databank provided by OLI Systems. Model simulation results were exported to Microsoft Excel to calculate summary statistics and to generate graphs comparing the OLI model predictions to the solubility data. Summary statistics include residuals (model – data) and concordance (accuracy × precision, where precision is indicated by the Pearson correlation coefficient and accuracy accounts for bias and scale differential). Private databanks were not developed, and activity coefficient model regressions were not performed to improve OLI model fits to the data. Of the 41 model verification plots, 83% have a mean of the percent residuals less than or equal to 25%. Similarly, 75% display a concordance greater than or equal to 0.75. Only seven of the 41 verification plots fail to show good agreement between the model and data. Of these seven, three are relevant to the WIPP repository because they involve the Mg-OH-Cl-SO 4 -CO 3 aqueous system. The remaining four address salt solubilities at the pH extremes (strong acid and strong base). It should be noted that in two of the three Mg-OH-Cl-SO 4 -CO 3 system cases, the regressed Harvie et al. (1984) solubility curve also deviated from the data. Lack of agreement between the OLI model-predicted solubility curves and the data is attributable to one or more of the following: specific solid species are not included in the OLI MSE databank; there is significant variation among the different solubility datasets chosen by Harvie et al. (1984); the OLI MSE model’s thermodynamic parameters were determined using different solubility datasets; and the activity coefficient parameters for certain relevant ion-ion and ion-molecule pairs have not been optimized via data regression. Two recommendations for future work are to (1) evaluate solubility data for the Mg-OH-Cl-SO 4 -CO 3 system at high ionic strength and, if necessary, develop a private OLI MSE database that includes missing species and, where necessary, regressed standard state properties and interaction parameters; (2) perform similar verification testing of the OLI model for actinide solubility data.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparing Calibration Algorithms for the Rapid Characterization of Pretreated Corn Stover Using Near-Infrared Spectroscopy

Rapid characterization of biomass composition is a key enabling technology for biorefineries—the ability to measure the chemical composition of biomass materials entering the biorefinery as well as the composition of key process intermediate streams would allow real-time process control and the development of robust models to predict process performance. The utility of near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy for rapid characterization requires multivariate algorithms for building calibration models. The most prevalent algorithm used for building calibration models using NIR spectra is the linear modeling algorithm Partial Least Squares Regression (PLS). Nonlinear regression algorithms (which are typically more computationally intensive than linear modeling approaches) have gained popularity in recent years due to their ability to solve a wide variety of classification and regression problems and the dramatic increase in available computational resources. In this work, we demonstrate that a calibration model can predict the composition of corn stover process intermediate samples pretreated with three different treatments—hot water (HW), dilute acid (DA), and deacetylation followed by dilute acid (DDA). We quantitatively compare three different algorithms for building prediction models based on near-infrared spectroscopy—partial least squares (PLS), support vector machines (SVM), and random forests (RF). We demonstrate the utility of improving model performance by accounting for instrument performance variability using repeated measurements of standard materials (e.g., the “repeatability file” strategy) and investigate its performance with nonlinear regression techniques, and we discuss methods for quantifying the uncertainties of specific predictions among the three methods.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Analysis of the Spatial Variations in the Relationship Between Built Environment and Severe Crashes

Traffic crashes significantly contribute to global fatalities, particularly in urban areas, highlighting the need to evaluate the relationship between urban environments and traffic safety. This study extends former spatial modeling frameworks by drawing paths between global models, including spatial lag (SLM), and spatial error (SEM), and local models, including geographically weighted regression (GWR), multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR), and multi-scale geographically weighted regression with spatially lagged dependent variable (MGWRL). Utilizing the proposed framework, this study analyzes severe traffic crashes in relation to urban built environments using various spatial regression models within Leon County, Florida. According to the results, SLM outperforms OLS, SEM, and GWR models. Local models with lagged dependent variables outperform both the global and generic versions of the local models in all performance measures, whereas MGWR and MGWRL outperform GWR and GWRL. Local models performed better than global models, showing spatial non-stationarity; so, the relationship between the dependent and independent variables varies over space. The better performance of models with lagged dependent variables signifies that the spatial distribution of severe crashes is correlated. Finally, the better performance of multi-scale local models than classical local models indicates varying influences of independent variables with different bandwidths. According to the MGWRL model, census block groups close to the urban area with higher population, higher education level, and lower car ownership rates have lower crash rates. On the contrary, motor vehicle percentage for commuting is found to have a negative association with severe crash rate, which suggests the locality of the mentioned associations.

Alisan, Onur (ORCID:0000000193113984)↗
DOE OSTI2019

Evaluation of the Uncertainty in Satellite-Based Crop State Variable Retrievals Due to Site and Growth Stage Specific Factors and Their Potential in Coupling with Crop Growth Models

Coupling crop growth models and remote sensing provides the potential to improve our understanding of the genotype x environment x management (G × E × M) variability of crop growth on a global scale. Unfortunately, the uncertainty in the relationship between the satellite measurements and the crop state variables across different sites and growth stages makes it difficult to perform the coupling. In this study, we evaluate the effects of this uncertainty with MODIS data at the Mead, Nebraska Ameriflux sites (US-Ne1, US-Ne2, and US-Ne3) and accurate, collocated Hybrid-Maize (HM) simulations of leaf area index (LAI) and canopy light use efficiency (LUE Canopy ). The simulations are used to both explore the sensitivity of the satellite-estimated genotype × management (G × M) parameters to the satellite retrieval regression coefficients and to quantify the amount of uncertainty attributable to site and growth stage specific factors. Additional ground-truth datasets of LAI and LUE Canopy are used to validate the analysis. The results show that uncertainty in the LAI/satellite measurement regression coefficients lead to large uncertainty in the G × M parameters retrievable from satellites. In addition to traditional leave-one-site-out regression analysis, the regression coefficient uncertainty is assessed by evaluating the retrieval performance of the temporal change in LAI and LUE Canopy . The weekly change in LAI is shown to be retrievable with a correlation coefficient absolute value (|r|) of 0.70 and root-mean square error (RMSE) value of 0.4, which is significantly better than the performance expected if the uncertainty was caused by random error rather than secondary effects caused by site and growth stage specific factors (an expected |r| value of 0.36 and RMSE value of 1.46 assuming random error). As a result, this study highlights the importance of accounting for site and growth stage specific factors in remote sensing retrievals for future work developing methods coupling remote sensing with crop growth models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗