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At least 865 records · Page 48

Comparative Assessment of Data-driven Process Models in Health Information Technology

Process mining for conformance analysis consists of comparing a reference process model against a data-driven process model generated via log files from information technology systems. However, in the absence of a complete reference process model, we found no suggested approaches in the literature to address the need for evaluating process conformance among different healthcare facilities to assess standardization of care. Our goal is to find similarities and dissimilarities in data-driven process models among US Veterans Health Administration (VHA) facilities that can be indicative of patient safety issues. Our hypothesis was that the analysis would not produce statistically significant differences in outcome. We present a unique implementation of conformance analysis in process mining that consists of combining process mining, process mapping and statistical metrics. We illustrate our approach by applying it to the analysis of two clinical radiology order process models generated from healthcare data provided by two similar facilities in the VHA. The comparative assessment showed that about 70% of the orders completed successfully and 30% were not completed due to policy and duplications. Our analysis found a good statistical correlation between both facilities, as the Spearman’s correlation coefficient between facilities for the frequency of cases per total hours was 0.87879, for the frequency of cases by state transition was 0.79702 and for the throughput time per state transition was 0.63582. Additional statistical analyses using the Mann-Whitney U test and the root mean square error both produced values that were not significant. The foregoing approach validated our hypothesis by demonstrating a good statistical correlation of data describing the flow of clinical radiology orders absent a credible reference model. Finding good agreement between both facilities was important in confirming that the clinical orders flow in a similar manner, suggesting standardization of care.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Knowledge brokering on emissions modelling in Strategic Environmental Assessment of Estonian energy policy with special reference to the LEAP model

Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) serves as a platform for bringing together researchers, policy developers and other stakeholders to evaluate and communicate significant environmental and socio-economic effects of policies, plans and programmes. Quantitative computer models can facilitate knowledge exchange between various parties that strive to use scientific findings to guide policy-making decisions. The process of facilitating knowledge generation and exchange, i.e. knowledge brokerage, has been increasingly explored, but there is not much evidence in the literature on how knowledge brokerage activities are used in full cycles of SEAs which employ quantitative models. We report on the SEA process of the national energy plan with reflections on where and how the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model was used for knowledge brokerage on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers. Our main suggestion is that applying a quantitative model not only in ex ante, but also ex post scenario modelling and associated impact assessment can facilitate systematic and inspiring knowledge exchange process on a policy problem and capacity building of participating actors. - Highlights: • We examine the knowledge brokering on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers in a full cycle of SEA. • Knowledge exchange process can evolve at any modelling stage within SEA. • Ex post scenario modelling enables systematic knowledge exchange and learning on a policy problem.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Interpretation of waverider performance data using computational fluid dynamics

A computational study was conducted to better understand experimental results obtained from wind tunnel tests of a Mach 4 waverider model and a comparative reference configuration. The experimental results showed that the performance of the reference configuration was slightly better than that of the waverider model. These results contradict waverider design theory, which suggests that a waverider optimized for maximum lift-to-drag should provide better performance than any other non-waverider configuration at a given design point, especially at hypersonic speeds. The computational results showed that the predicted surface pressure values and the integrated lift and drag coefficients from the pressure distributions were much lower for the reference model than for the flat-top model, due to the reference model bottom surface having a slight expansion. The lift-to-drag ratios for the flat-top model were higher due to a relatively low drag for the same amount of lift. These results indicate that the performance advantage of the reference model was due to the shape of the bottom surface and not due to the flat top surface. The results also showed that the reference model exhibited the same shock attachment characteristics as the waverider because the planform shapes were identical. CFD predictions show that the planform shape gives the waverider an advantage in performance over conventional hypersonic vehicles and that altering the bottom surface of a waverider does not cause significant performance degradation.

Cockrell, Charles E., Jr.↗

Interpretation of Waverider Performance Data Using Computational Fluid Dynamics

A computational study was conducted to better understand experimental results obtained from wind tunnel tests of a Mach 4 waverider model and a comparative reference configuration. The experimental results showed that the performance of the reference configuration was slightly better than that of the waverider model. These results contradict waverider design theory, which suggests that a waverider optimized for maximum lift-to-drag should provide better performance than any other non-waverider configuration at a given design point, especially at hypersonic speeds. The computational results showed that the predicted surface pressure values and the integrated lift and drag coefficients from the pressure distributions were much lower for the reference model than for the flat-top model, due to the reference model bottom surface having a slight expansion. The lift-to-drag ratios for the flat-top model were higher due to a relatively low drag for the same amount of lift. These results indicate that the performance advantage of the reference model was due to the shape of the bottom surface and not due to the flat top surface. The results also showed that the reference model exhibited the same shock attachment characteristics as the waverider because the planform shapes were identical. CFD predictions show that the planform shape gives the waverider an advantage in performance over conventional hypersonic vehicles and that altering the bottom surface of a waverider does not cause significant performance degradation.

Cockrell, Charles E., Jr.↗

The Impact of Dielectric Constant Model and Surface Reference on Differences Between SMOS and Aquarius Sea Surface Salinity

Two ongoing space missions share the scientific objective of mapping the global Sea Surface Salinity (SSS), yet their observations show significant discrepancies. ESA's Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and NASA's Aquarius use L-band (1.4 GHz) radiometers to measure emission from the sea surface and retrieve SSS. Significant differences in SSS retrieved by both sensors are observed, with SMOS SSS being generally lower than Aquarius SSS, except for very cold waters where SMOS SSS is the highest overall. Figure 1 is an example of the difference between the SSS retrieved by SMOS and Aquarius averaged over one month and 1 degree in longitude and latitude. Differences are mostly between -1 psu and +1 psu (psu, practical salinity unit), with a significant regional and latitudinal dependence. We investigate the impact of the vicarious calibration and retrieval algorithm used by both mission on these differences.

SMOS↗

Slycat™ User Manual

Slycat™ is a web-based system for performing data analysis and visualization of potentially large quantities of remote, high-dimensional data. Slycat™ specializes in working with ensemble data. An ensemble is a group of related data sets, which typically consists of a set of simulation runs exploring the same problem space. An ensemble can be thought of as a set of samples within a multi-variate domain, where each sample is a vector whose value defines a point in high-dimensional space. To understand and describe the underlying problem being modeled in the simulations, ensemble analysis looks for shared behaviors and common features across the group of runs. Additionally, ensemble analysis tries to quantify differences found in any members that deviate from the rest of the group. The Slycat™ system integrates data management, scalable analysis, and visualization. Results are viewed remotely on a user’s desktop via commodity web clients using a multi-tiered hierarchy of computation and data storage, as shown in Figure 1. Our goal is to operate on data as close to the source as possible, thereby reducing time and storage costs associated with data movement. Consequently, we are working to develop parallel analysis capabilities that operate on High Performance Computing (HPC) platforms, to explore approaches for reducing data size, and to implement strategies for staging computation across the Slycat™ hierarchy. Within Slycat™, data and visual analysis are organized around projects, which are shared by a project team. Project members are explicitly added, each with a designated set of permissions. Although users sign-in to access Slycat™, individual accounts are not maintained. Instead, authentication is used to determine project access. Within projects, Slycat™ models capture analysis results and enable data exploration through various visual representations. Although for scientists each simulation run is a model of real-world phenomena given certain conditions, we use the term model to refer to our modeling of the ensemble data, not the physics. Different model types often provide complementary perspectives on data features when analyzing the same data set. Each model visualizes data at several levels of abstraction, allowing the user to range from viewing the ensemble holistically to accessing numeric parameter values for a single run. Bookmarks provide a mechanism for sharing results, enabling interesting model states to be labeled and saved.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Skylab earth resources experiment package /EREP/ - Sea surface topography experiment

The S-193 Skylab radar altimeter was operated in a round-the-world pass on Jan. 31, 1974. The main purpose of this experiment was to test and 'measure' the variation of the sea surface topography using the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) geoid model as a reference. This model is based upon 430,000 satellite and 25,000 ground gravity observations. Variations of the sea surface on the order of -40 to +60 m were observed along this pass. The 'computed' and 'measured' sea surfaces have an rms agreement on the order of 7 m. This is quite satisfactory, considering that this was the first time the sea surface has been observed directly over a distance of nearly 35,000 km and compared to a computed model. The Skylab orbit for this global pass was computed using the Goddard Earth Model (GEM 6) and S-band radar tracking data, resulting in an orbital height uncertainty of better than 5 m over one orbital period.

Vonbun, F. O.↗

SAM Code Development for Transient Safety Analyses of Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactors

The System Analysis Module (SAM) is under development at Argonne National Laboratory as a modern system-level modeling and simulation tool for advanced non-light water reactor safety analyses. It utilizes the object-oriented application framework MOOSE to leverage the modern software environment and advanced numerical methods. The capabilities of SAM are being extended to enable the transient modeling, analysis, and design of various advanced nuclear reactor systems. The molten-salt-cooled pebble-bed reactor, or pebble-bed FHR (PB-FHR) is a promising candidate among advanced nuclear reactor concepts with its improved passive safety characteristics and high thermal efficiency. To support the development and utilization of the SAM code for PB-FHR safety analysis, activities on SAM code enhancements, reference plant model developments, and code validations have been performed in the past a few years to support near-term industry and NRC needs. This report summarizes recent progress under DOE-NE’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program in SAM code development and demonstration for transient safety analysis of Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactors. SAM capabilities has been significantly enhanced over the years to add FHR specific modeling features, including salt freezing and thawing, spherical core channel and pebble bed core modeling, solid-fluid thermal radiation, tritium transport and general species transport in fluids and solids, and the general code enhancements on solver schemes of point kinetics module and reactivity feedback models. A reference PB-FHR model is developed, based on publicly available information from Kairos Power’s generic FHR design and the University of California, Berkeley (UCB) Mk1 design. A reference reactor model is foundational to the methodologies employed by NRC to verify the adequacy of computer codes and evaluation models. The reference FHR model was utilized for a number of selected FHR design basis accidents, including station blackout, loss of heat sink, loss of flow, transient overpower, and overcooling events.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

SU-F-T-276: Source Modeling and VMAT Quality Assurance Referring to the TrueBeam Representative Beam Data for Eclipse

Purpose: To study quality assurance (QA) of volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) after the 6MV and 10MV photon beam source modeling, referring to the Varian TrueBeam representative beam data for Eclipse. Methods: The source model needs specific measured beam data, such as PDDs and profiles, diagonal profile, output factors (OFs), and MLC transmission factor (TF) and dosimetric leaf gap (DLG), et al. We downloaded the representative data from myVarian website, which includes TrueBeam 4MV-15MV photon beam data and 6MeV-22MeV electron beam data in w2CAD file format for use with Eclipse and in Excel spreadsheet format for use in data comparison. The beam data in W2CAD format can be imported into the Eclipse system and calibrated for use, as appropriate. We used PTW MP3 water tank to measure the beam data in some typical field sizes, and compared the measured data with the representative data. We found that the PDDs, profiles and OFs are similar. However according to some papers and our measurements, we decided that our MLC TF and DLG are 1.58 and 1.33 (6MV), 1.79 and 1.57 (10MV), respectively. After we had configured the anisotropic analytical algorithm (AAA) with the representative data in Eclipse, we also have done dosimetric verification for 88 VMAT plans. Results: The end-to-end test procedures of VMAT were performed for 6MV and 10MV energy modes. The NE Farmer ion chamber mean measurements showed 1.2% (6MV, 38 cases) and 1.2% (10MV, 50 cases) between measurement and calculation; the Sun Nuclear ArcCheck mean measurements demonstrated gamma pass rates are as followings: 98.9%, 93.2%, 61.0% for 6MV, and 98.9%, 91.9%, 59.5% for 10MV, using 3%/3mm, 2%/2mm, 1%/1mm, 10% threshold criteria, respectively. Conclusion: The representative data is applicable to our TrueBeam for the VMAT plan, though our MLC factors are a little different, and its patientspecific QA is good.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Revisiting AMOC Transport Estimates From Observations and Models

Abstract Reference level assumptions used to calculate the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation transports at the RAPID and Meridional Overturning Variability Experiment (MOVE) observing arrays are revisited in an eddying ocean model. Observational transport calculation methods are complemented by several alternative approaches. At RAPID, the model transports from the observational method and the model truth (based on the actual model velocities) agree well in their mean and variability. There are substantial differences among the transport estimates obtained with various methods at the MOVE site. These differences result from relatively large and time‐varying reference velocities at depth in the model, not supporting a level‐of‐no‐motion. The methods that account for these reference velocities properly at MOVE produce transports that are in good agreement with the model truth. In contrast with the observational estimates, the model transport trends at MOVE and RAPID largely agree with each other on pentadal to multi‐decadal time scales.

Danabasoglu, Gokhan↗

Wind-tunnel investigation of the validity of a sonic-boom-minimization concept

The Langley unitary plan unitary plan wind tunnel was used to determine the validity of a sonic-boom-minimization theory. Five models - two reference and three low-boom constrained - were tested at design Mach numbers of 1.5 and 2.7. Results show that the pressure signatures generated by the low-boom models had significantly lower overpressure levels than those produced by the reference models and that small changes in the Mach number and/or the lift caused relatively small changes in the signature shape and overpressure level. Boundary-layer effects were found in the signature shape and overpressure level. Boundary-layer effects were found to be sizable on the low-boom models, and when viscous corrections were included in the analysis, improved agreement between the predicted and the measured signatures was noted. Since this agreement was better at Mach 1.5 than at Mach 2.7, it was concluded that the minimization method was definitely valid at Mach 1.5 and was probably valid at Mach 2.7, with further work needed to resolve the uncertainty.

Mack, R. J.↗

DOE: Integrating Southwest Power Pool Wind Energy into Southeast Electricity Markets

Wind power development in the United States is outpacing previous estimates for many regions, particularly those with good wind resources. The pace of wind power deployment may soon outstrip regional capabilities to provide transmission and integration services to achieve the most economic power system operation. Conversely, regions such as the Southeastern United States do not have good wind resources and will have difficulty meeting proposed federal Renewable Portfolio Standards with local supply. There is a growing need to explore innovative solutions for collaborating between regions to achieve the least cost solution for meeting such a renewable energy mandate. The DOE-funded project 'Integrating Southwest Power Pool Wind Energy into Southeast Electricity Markets' aims to evaluate the benefits of coordination of scheduling and balancing for Southwest Power Pool (SPP) wind transfers to Southeastern Electric Reliability Council (SERC) Balancing Authorities (BAs). The primary objective of this project is to analyze the benefits of different balancing approaches with increasing levels of inter-regional cooperation. Scenarios were defined, modeled and investigated to address production variability and uncertainty and the associated balancing of large quantities of wind power in SPP and delivery to energy markets in the southern regions of the SERC. The primary analysis of the project is based on unit commitment (UC) and economic dispatch (ED) simulations of the SPP-SERC regions as modeled for the year 2022. The UC/ED models utilized for the project were developed through extensive consultation with the project utility partners, to ensure the various regions and operational practices are represented as accurately as possible realizing that all such future scenario models are quite uncertain. SPP, Entergy, Oglethorpe Power Company (OPC), Southern Company, and the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) actively participated in the project providing input data for the models and review of simulation results and conclusions. While other SERC utility systems are modeled, the listed SERC utilities were explicitly included as active participants in the project due to the size of their load and relative proximity to SPP for importing wind energy. The analysis aspects of the project comprised 4 primary tasks: (1) Development of SCUC/SCED model of the SPP-SERC footprint for the year 2022 with only 7 GW of installed wind capacity in SPP for internal SPP consumption with no intended wind exports to SERC. This model is referred to as the 'Non-RES' model as it does not reflect the need for the SPP or SERC BAs to meet a federal Renewable Energy Standard (RES). (2) Analysis of hourly-resolution simulation results of the Non-RES model for the year 2022 to provide project stakeholders with confidence in the model and analytical framework for a scenario that is similar to the existing system and more easily evaluated than the high-wind transfer scenarios that are analyzed subsequently. (3) Development of SCUC/SCED model of the SPP-SERC footprint for the year 2022 with sufficient installed wind capacity in SPP (approximately 48 GW) for both SPP and the participating SERC BAs to meet an RES of 20% energy. This model is referred to as the 'High-Wind Transfer' model with several different scenarios represented. The development of the High-Wind Transfer model not only included identification and allocation of SPP wind to individual SERC BAs, but also included the evaluation of various methods to allow the model to export the SPP wind to SERC without developing an actual transmission plan to support the transfers. (4) Analysis of hourly-resolution simulation results of several different High-Wind Transfer model scenarios for the year 2022 to determine balancing costs and potential benefits of collaboration among SPP and SERC BAs to provide the required balancing.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Skin dose mapping for fluoroscopically guided interventions

Purpose: To introduce a new skin dose mapping software system for interventional fluoroscopy dose assessment and to analyze the benefits and limitations of patient-phantom matching. Methods: In this study, a new software system was developed for visualizing patient skin dose during interventional fluoroscopy procedures. The system works by translating the reference point air kerma to the location of the patient's skin, which is represented by a computational model. In order to orient the model with the x-ray source, geometric parameters found within the radiation dose structured report (RDSR) are used along with a limited number of in-clinic measurements. The output of the system is a visual indication of skin dose mapped onto an anthropomorphic model at a resolution of 5 mm. In order to determine if patient-dependent and patient-sculpted models increase accuracy, peak skin dose was calculated for each of 26 patient-specific models and compared with doses calculated using an elliptical stylized model, a reference hybrid model, a matched patient-dependent model and one patient-sculpted model. Results were analyzed in terms of a percent difference using the doses calculated using the patient-specific model as the true standard. Results: Anthropometric matching, including the use of both patient-dependent and patient-sculpted phantoms, was shown most beneficial for left lateral and anterior-posterior projections. In these cases, the percent difference using a reference model was between 8 and 20%, using a patient-dependent model between 7 and 15%, and using a patient-sculpted model between 3 and 7%. Under the table tube configurations produced errors less than 5% in most situations due to the flattening affects of the table and pad, and the fact that table height is the main determination of source-to-skin distance for these configurations. In addition to these results, several skin dose maps were produced and a prototype display system was placed on the in-clinic monitor of an interventional fluoroscopy system. Conclusions: The skin dose mapping program developed in this work represents a new tool that, as the RDSR becomes available through automated export or real-time streaming, can provide the interventional physician information needed to modify behavior when clinically appropriate. The program is nonproprietary and transferable, and also functions independent to the software systems already installed on the control room workstation. The next step will be clinical implementation where the workflow will be optimized along with further analysis of real-time capabilities.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Automatic and rapid calibration of urban building energy models by learning from energy performance database

Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) is attracting increasing attention in the energy modeling filed. Unlike modeling a single building using detailed building systems information, UBEM generally uses limited high-level building stock data to infer default assumptions about building characteristics and operations. Additionally, this practice inherently brings uncertainty to UBEM. This study introduced a novel method of automatic and rapid calibration of UBEM based on the annual electricity and natural gas energy use data by learning the correlations between crucial model input parameters and the building energy use from the reference building models. A case study was presented to calibrate 72 large office buildings built before 1978 in San Francisco. Seventeen model parameters were selected and Monte Carlo sampling was used to create 1000 samples that reasonably represent the parameter space. Then 1000 simulations were performed for the reference building model to create an energy performance database. The results showed that by learning from the energy performance database, it took less than four simulation runs on average to calibrate a building model. After the calibration, the distributions of each parameter were obtained to replace their single predefined default values. For example, the default lighting power density of 21.39 W/m 2 was calibrated to be 7.50 W/m 2 on average. The case study successfully demonstrated the effectiveness of the novel calibration method for UBEM in the mild climate. The method will be further tested in future for other climate zones and other building types.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Airport-Noise Levels and Annoyance Model (ALAMO) system's reference manual

The airport-noise levels and annoyance model (ALAMO) is described in terms of the constituent modules, the execution of ALAMO procedure files, necessary for system execution, and the source code documentation associated with code development at Langley Research Center. The modules constituting ALAMO are presented both in flow graph form, and through a description of the subroutines and functions that comprise them.

Deloach, R.↗