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NASA NTRS1989

Noiseless compression using non-Markov models

Adaptive data compression techniques can be viewed as consisting of a model specified by a database common to the encoder and decoder, an encoding rule and a rule for updating the model to ensure that the encoder and decoder always agree on the interpretation of the next transmission. The techniques which fit this framework range from run-length coding, to adaptive Huffman and arithmetic coding, to the string-matching techniques of Lempel and Ziv. The compression obtained by arithmetic coding is dependent on the generality of the source model. For many sources, an independent-letter model is clearly insufficient. Unfortunately, a straightforward implementation of a Markov model requires an amount of space exponential in the number of letters remembered. The Directed Acyclic Word Graph (DAWG) can be constructed in time and space proportional to the text encoded, and can be used to estimate the probabilities required for arithmetic coding based on an amount of memory which varies naturally depending on the encoded text. The tail of that portion of the text which was encoded is the longest suffix that has occurred previously. The frequencies of letters following these previous occurrences can be used to estimate the probability distribution of the next letter. Experimental results indicate that compression is often far better than that obtained using independent-letter models, and sometimes also significantly better than other non-independent techniques.

Blumer, Anselm↗

NASA NTRS1989

A long-range laser velocimeter for the National Full-Scale Aerodynamics Complex: New developments and experimental application

A long-range laser velocimeter (LV) developed for remote operation from within the flow fields of the large wind tunnels of the National Full-Scale Aerodynamics Complex is described. Emphasis is placed on recent improvements in optical hardware as well as recent additions to data acquisition and processing techniques. The system has been upgraded from a dual-beam, single-color LV with focal range to 10 m, to a dual-beam, two-color LV with focal range to 20 m. At the new extended measurement range (between 10 and 20 m), signals are photon-resolved, and a photon correlation technique is applied to acquire and process the LV signals. This technique permits recovery of the velocity probability distributions at a particular measurement location from which the mean components of velocity and the corresponding normal stress components of turbulence are obtained. The method used for data reduction is outlined in detail, and a discussion of measurement accuracy is made. To study the performance of the LV and verify the measurement accuracy, laboratory measurements were made in the flow field of a 10 cm-diameter, 30-m/sec axisymmetric jet. A discussion of the requirements and techniques used to seed the flow is made, and boundary-layer surveys of mean velocity and turbulence intensity of the streamwise component and the component normal to the surface are presented.

Reinath, Michael S.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Mars Rover/Sample Return landing strategy

This paper describes the analysis and results of an investigation of the Mars Rover/Sample Return mission's landing strategy, together with the trade-offs of different landing strategies. The percentile points and the descriptive statistics of the probability distribution of traverse distances are calculated using a simple model formulated on the basis of landing error characteristics. The results show that variations in the landing stratgegy can significantly affect the traverse distance requirements, which range from 20 to 200 km.

Friedlander, Alan L.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Effect of signal jitter on the spectrum of rotor impulsive noise

The effect of randomness or jitter of the acoustic waveform on the spectrum of rotor impulsive noise is studied because of its importance for data interpretation. An acoustic waveform train is modeled representing rotor impulsive noise. The amplitude, shape, and period between occurrences of individual pulses are allowed to be randomized assuming normal probability distributions. Results, in terms of the standard deviations of the variable quantities, are given for the autospectrum as well as special processed spectra designed to separate harmonic and broadband rotor noise components. Consideration is given to the effect of accuracy in triggering or keying to a rotor one per revolution signal. An example is given showing the resultant spectral smearing at the high frequencies due to the pulse signal period variability.

Brooks, Thomas F.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Improved Monte Carlo turbulence simulation for Shuttle reentry studies

A turbulence model for Space Shuttle reentry simulation is presented, which may be used to improve redline selection. It is suggested that the turbulence model in current use is overly conservative because it assumes severe turbulence from reentry altitude to the earth's surface. Two improved versions of the turbulence simulation equations are presented. These are third and fifth order approximations to the von Karman spectrum. The equations are in a form suitable for digital simulation. Both sets of equations can be used to generate a probability distribution of fuel remaining at landing.

Campbell, C. Warren↗

NASA NTRS1989

Fractal statistics of cloud fields

Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS) and Thematic Mapper (TM) data, with 80 and 30 m spatial resolution, respectively, have been employed to study the spatial structure of boundary-layer and intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) clouds. The probability distributions of cloud areas and cloud perimeters are found to approximately follow a power-law, with a different power (i.e., fractal dimension) for each cloud type. They are better approximated by a double power-law behavior, indicating a change in the fractal dimension at a characteristic size which depends upon cloud type. The fractal dimension also changes with threshold. The more intense cloud areas are found to have a higher perimeter fractal dimension, perhaps indicative of the increased turbulence at cloud top. A detailed picture of the inhomogeneous spatial structure of various cloud types will contribute to a better understanding of basic cloud processes, and also has implications for the remote sensing of clouds, for their effects on remote sensing of other parameters, and for the parameterization of clouds in general circulation models, all of which rely upon plane-parallel radiative transfer algorithms.

Cahalan, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Probabilities and statistics for backscatter estimates obtained by a scatterometer

Methods for the recovery of winds near the surface of the ocean from measurements of the normalized radar backscattering cross section must recognize and make use of the statistics (i.e., the sampling variability) of the backscatter measurements. Radar backscatter values from a scatterometer are random variables with expected values given by a model. A model relates backscatter to properties of the waves on the ocean, which are in turn generated by the winds in the atmospheric marine boundary layer. The effective wind speed and direction at a known height for a neutrally stratified atmosphere are the values to be recovered from the model. The probability density function for the backscatter values is a normal probability distribution with the notable feature that the variance is a known function of the expected value. The sources of signal variability, the effects of this variability on the wind speed estimation, and criteria for the acceptance or rejection of models are discussed. A modified maximum likelihood method for estimating wind vectors is described. Ways to make corrections for the kinds of errors found for the Seasat SASS model function are described, and applications to a new scatterometer are given.

Pierson, Willard J., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Monte Carlo turbulence simulation for Shuttle reentry studies

A realistic model for the Space Shuttle reentry which will permit more rational selection of the reaction control fuel redlines than did the current turbulence model, is described, with special attention given to the turbulence simulation difference equations, which are revised in this paper. The difference equations for the third-order approximation are presented for both the longitudinal turbulence and the transverse turbulence equations. Each set of equations can be used to generate a probability distribution of fuel remaining at landing.

Campbell, Warren C.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Performance bounds on parallel self-initiating discrete-event

The use is considered of massively parallel architectures to execute discrete-event simulations of what is termed self-initiating models. A logical process in a self-initiating model schedules its own state re-evaluation times, independently of any other logical process, and sends its new state to other logical processes following the re-evaluation. The interest is in the effects of that communication on synchronization. The performance is considered of various synchronization protocols by deriving upper and lower bounds on optimal performance, upper bounds on Time Warp's performance, and lower bounds on the performance of a new conservative protocol. The analysis of Time Warp includes the overhead costs of state-saving and rollback. The analysis points out sufficient conditions for the conservative protocol to outperform Time Warp. The analysis also quantifies the sensitivity of performance to message fan-out, lookahead ability, and the probability distributions underlying the simulation.

Nicol, David M.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Probabilistic structural analysis of aerospace components using NESSUS

Probabilistic structural analysis of a Space Shuttle main engine turbopump blade is conducted using the computer code NESSUS (numerical evaluation of stochastic structures under stress). The goal of the analysis is to derive probabilistic characteristics of blade response given probabilistic descriptions of uncertainties in blade geometry, material properties, and temperature and pressure distributions. Probability densities are derived for critical blade responses. Risk assessment and failure life analysis is conducted assuming different failure models.

Shiao, Michael C.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Real-time adaptive aircraft scheduling

One of the most important functions of any air traffic management system is the assignment of ground-holding times to flights, i.e., the determination of whether and by how much the take-off of a particular aircraft headed for a congested part of the air traffic control (ATC) system should be postponed in order to reduce the likelihood and extent of airborne delays. An analysis is presented for the fundamental case in which flights from many destinations must be scheduled for arrival at a single congested airport; the formulation is also useful in scheduling the landing of airborne flights within the extended terminal area. A set of approaches is described for addressing a deterministic and a probabilistic version of this problem. For the deterministic case, where airport capacities are known and fixed, several models were developed with associated low-order polynomial-time algorithms. For general delay cost functions, these algorithms find an optimal solution. Under a particular natural assumption regarding the delay cost function, an extremely fast (O(n ln n)) algorithm was developed. For the probabilistic case, using an estimated probability distribution of airport capacities, a model was developed with an associated low-order polynomial-time heuristic algorithm with useful properties.

Kolitz, Stephan E.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Are high-redshift quasars hidden by dusty galaxies?

A Monte Carlo technique has been developed to compute the joint probability distribution for the reddening and extinction of quasars by galaxies along the line of sight with a realistic dust extinction curve including the 220 nm feature. Galaxies are treated as disks with random inclinations, having exponential or modified Gaussian radial profiles. This technique is used to find the distribution of the reddened quasars on multicolor diagrams such as the (U-J, J-F) plots used by Koo and Kron (1982) to find faint quasars. The multicolor search technique is not a simple UV excess approach, and the resulting color selection does not add significantly to the flux selection discussed by Wright (1981), Ostriker and Heisler (1984), and Heisler and Ostriker (1988). The quasar reddening trend observed by Wright and Malkan (1987) is about 0.35 + or - 0.50 times the mean reddening of the selected sample predicted by the Heisler and Ostriker model.

Wright, Edward L.↗

NASA NTRS1989

A probabilistic approach to crack instability

A probabilistic model of brittle fracture is examined with reference to two-dimensional problems. The model is illustrated by using experimental data obtained for 25 macroscopically identical specimens made of short-fiber-reinforced composites. It is shown that the model proposed here provides a predictive formalism for the probability distributions of critical crack depth, critical loads, and crack arrest depths. It also provides similarity criteria for small-scale testing.

Chudnovsky, A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

An improved approach for flight readiness assessment

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk for a spaceflight system in order to assess flight readiness is presented. This methodology is of particular value when information relevant to failure prediction, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is limited. In this approach, engineering analysis models that characterize specific failure modes based on the physics and mechanics of the failure phenomena are used in a prescribed probabilistic structure to generate a failure probability distribution that is modified by test and flight experience in a Bayesian statistical procedure. The probabilistic structure and statistical methodology are generally applicable to any failure mode for which quantitative engineering analysis can be employed to characterize the failure phenomenon and are particularly well suited for use under the constraints on information availability that are typical of such spaceflight systems as the Space Shuttle and planetary spacecraft.

Moore, N. R.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Probability of failure and risk assessment of propulsion structural components

The probabilistic structural analysis method (PSAM) was developed to analyze the effects of fluctuating loads, variable material properties, and uncertain analytical models especially for high performance structures such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine turbopump blades. Risk is calculated after expensive service experience. However, probabilistic structural analysis provides a rational alternative method to quantify uncertainties in the structural performance and durability. NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) was developed as a probabilistic structural analysis computer code which integrates finite element methods and reliability algorithms, capable to predicting the probability distributions of structural response variables such as stress, displacement, natural frequencies, and buckling loads. This computer code is detailed.

Shiao, Michael C.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Numerical methods in Markov chain modeling

Several methods for computing stationary probability distributions of Markov chains are described and compared. The main linear algebra problem consists of computing an eigenvector of a sparse, usually nonsymmetric, matrix associated with a known eigenvalue. It can also be cast as a problem of solving a homogeneous singular linear system. Several methods based on combinations of Krylov subspace techniques are presented. The performance of these methods on some realistic problems are compared.

Philippe, Bernard↗

NASA NTRS1989

Projection methods for the numerical solution of Markov chain models

Projection methods for computing stationary probability distributions for Markov chain models are presented. A general projection method is a method which seeks an approximation from a subspace of small dimension to the original problem. Thus, the original matrix problem of size N is approximated by one of dimension m, typically much smaller than N. A particularly successful class of methods based on this principle is that of Krylov subspace methods which utilize subspaces of the form span(v,av,...,A(exp m-1)v). These methods are effective in solving linear systems and eigenvalue problems (Lanczos, Arnoldi,...) as well as nonlinear equations. They can be combined with more traditional iterative methods such as successive overrelaxation, symmetric successive overrelaxation, or with incomplete factorization methods to enhance convergence.

Saad, Youcef↗

NASA NTRS1991

Using probabilistic analysis to assess the reliability of predicted SRB aft-skirt stresses

Probabilistic failure analysis is a tool to predict the reliability of a part or system. Probabalistic techniques were used to predict critical stresses which occur in the solid rocket booster aft-skirt during main engine buildup, immediately prior to lift-off. More than any other hold down post (HDP) load component, the Z loads are sensitive to variations in strains and calibration constants. Also, predicted aft-skirt stresses are strongly affected by HDP load variations. Therefore, the instrumented HDP are not effective load transducers for Z loads, and, when used with aft skirt stress indicator equations, yield estimates with large uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulation proved to be a straight forward way of studying the overlapping effects of multiple parameters on predicted equipment performance. An advantage of probabilistic analysis is the degree of uncertainty of each parameter as stated explicitly by its probability distribution. It was noted, however, that the choice of parameter distribution had a large effect on the simulation results. Many times these distributions must be assumed. The engineer who is designing the part should be responsible for the choice of parameter distribution.

Richardson, James A.↗