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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 865 records · Page 48
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Limitations of traditional tools for beyond design basis external hazard PRA

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is being used increasingly by the nuclear industry for safety during normal operations as well as for the protection against external hazards. Computation of total risk in an external hazard PRA is dependent on hazard assessment, fragility assessment, and systems analysis. A systems analysis for propagation of component fragilities is conducted using event and fault trees. The event and fault trees for an actual power plant can be fairly large in size, which imposes computational challenges. Hence, certain assumptions are employed for computational efficiency. These assumptions typically represent the conditions imposed during the design basis (DB) scenario. The traditional PRA tools based on these assumptions are also widely applied to perform risk assessment in the context of beyond design basis (BDB) scenarios. However, some of these assumptions may not be valid for certain BDB scenarios. In addition, the probability of dependent failures also increases in BDB scenarios due to common cause failures (CCF) which usually results from design modifications, human errors, etc. In this manuscript, a simple and a relatively more complex illustrative examples are used to show the limitation of these assumptions in the numerical quantification of risk for the case of BDB conditions. Case studies with CCF events across multiple fault trees are also presented to illustrate the effect of these assumptions when traditional approach is used in BDB risk assessment. It is shown that the assumptions are valid for the case of DB conditions but may lead to excessively conservative risk estimates in the case of BDB conditions. Finally, a Bayesian network based top-down algorithm is proposed as an alternative tool for accurate numerical quantification of total risk in systems analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

On-chip probabilistic inference for charged-particle tracking at the sensor edge

Modern scientific instruments operate under increasingly extreme constraints on bandwidth, latency, and power. Inference at the sensor edge determines experimental data collection efficiency by deciding which information to save for further analysis. Particle tracking detectors at the Large Hadron Collider exemplify this challenge: pixelated silicon sensors generate rich spatiotemporal ionization patterns, yet most of this information is discarded due to data-rate limitations. Concurrently, advancements in co-design tools provide rapid turn-around for incorporating machine learning into application-specific integrated circuits, motivating designs for particle detectors with new integrated technologies. We demonstrate that neural networks embedded in the front-end electronics can infer charged-particle kinematic parameters from a single silicon layer. We regress hit positions and incident angles with calibrated uncertainties, while satisfying stringent constraints on numerical precision, latency, and silicon area. Our results establish a path toward probabilistic inference directly at the edge, opening new opportunities for intelligent sensing in high-rate scientific instruments.

Das, Arghya Ranjan [Purdue U.] (ORCID:000000018451↗
NASA NTRS2002

Classification image analysis: estimation and statistical inference for two-alternative forced-choice experiments

We consider estimation and statistical hypothesis testing on classification images obtained from the two-alternative forced-choice experimental paradigm. We begin with a probabilistic model of task performance for simple forced-choice detection and discrimination tasks. Particular attention is paid to general linear filter models because these models lead to a direct interpretation of the classification image as an estimate of the filter weights. We then describe an estimation procedure for obtaining classification images from observer data. A number of statistical tests are presented for testing various hypotheses from classification images based on some more compact set of features derived from them. As an example of how the methods we describe can be used, we present a case study investigating detection of a Gaussian bump profile.

Non-NASA Center↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reduced‐Order Probabilistic Emulation of Physics‐Based Ring Current Models: Application to RAM‐SCB Particle Flux

Abstract In this work, we address the computational challenge of large‐scale physics‐based simulation models for the ring current. Reduced computational cost allows for significantly faster than real‐time forecasting, enhancing our ability to predict and respond to dynamic changes in the ring current, valuable for space weather monitoring and mitigation efforts. Additionally, it can also be used for a comprehensive investigation of the system. Thus, we aim to create an emulator for the Ring current‐Atmosphere interactions Model with Self‐Consistent magnetic field (RAM‐SCB) particle flux that not only improves efficiency but also facilitates forecasting with reliable estimates of prediction uncertainties. The probabilistic emulator is built upon the methodology developed by Licata and Mehta (2023), https://doi.org/10.1029/2022sw003345 . A novel discrete sampling is used to identify 30 simulation periods over 20 years of solar and geomagnetic activity. Focusing on a subset of particle flux, we use Principal Component Analysis for dimensionality reduction and Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks to perform dynamic modeling. Hyperparameter space was explored extensively resulting in about 5% median symmetric accuracy across all data sets for one‐step dynamic prediction. Using a hierarchical ensemble of LSTMs, we have developed a reduced‐order probabilistic emulator (ROPE) tailored for time‐series forecasting of particle flux in the ring current. This ROPE offers accurate predictions of omnidirectional flux at a single energy with no pitch angle information, providing robust predictions on the test set with an error score below 11% and calibration scores under 8% with bias under 2% providing a significant speed up as compared to the full RAM‐SCB run.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Groundwater Modeling of the RDX Plume at Los Alamos National Laboratory to Support Risk Assessment - 20359

A plume of the contaminant hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) with concentrations greater than the New Mexico tap water drinking standard (9.66 ppb) is present in the regional aquifer near the southwestern boundary of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). A risk assessment is performed for exposure to regional aquifer groundwater, with long-term predictions of RDX concentrations provided by a calibrated, probabilistic, numerical fate and transport model. The structure of the model is hierarchical, with the RDX Regional Aquifer (RA) groundwater model acting as the primary tool for analysis of downgradient RDX concentrations. The RA model is deeply informed by the conceptual site model (CSM) and is calibrated using site RDX concentration data and hydraulic head measurements, along with other analyses. The model is calibrated using data through December 2019. Where data are scarce other lines of evidence are used to inform inputs, including the multiphase RDX Vadose Zone (VZ) model and Pipe and Disk analytical screening tool. Model inputs are described with informative prior distributions using a robust approach to development that incorporates all available lines of evidence for every parameter used as an input to the RA model. Calibration is performed using a classical nonlinear optimization routine, which is then used to initialize a Bayesian calibration. The Bayesian calibration constrains the uncertainty in the classical calibration, ultimately providing posterior distributions for all model parameters. The challenges of the calibration include high-dimensional parameter space, including spatially heterogeneous hydraulic conductivities, comparatively sparse data, and low RDX concentrations. Posterior parameter distributions developed in the calibration process are then used for stochastic predictive model runs into the future. The result of the forward runs is spatially and temporally explicit estimates of head and concentration with uncertainty at all points in space and time. The probabilistic modeling approach presented here includes innovative computational and statistical methods that leverage high-performance computing (HPC) resources. It makes use of prior modeling work performed at the chromium plume site in the central LANL area, with extensive updates. The risk assessment will ultimately be used to support decision-making at the site, using multiple appropriately weighted sources of information, as well as uncertainty, sensitivity, and value-of-information analyses. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

HELPR Version 1.1.0 User Guide

Hydrogen Extremely Low Probability of Rupture (HELPR) is a modular probabilistic fracture mechanics modeling platform developed to assess structural integrity of pipelines for transmission and distribution of hydrogen. HELPR couples fatigue and fracture engineering models with probabilistic methods to generate fast predictions and enables quantification of prediction uncertainty and sensitivity. This user manual serves as a guide through the various analysis features HELPR contains.

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS2015

Simulation of Liquid Rocket Engine Failure Propagation Using Self-Evolving Scenarios

Traditional probabilistic risk assessment approaches often require failure scenarios to be explicitly defined through event sequences that are then quantified as part of the integrated analysis. This approach becomes difficult when failure propagation paths change as a function of the system operation. Additionally, if the propagation paths represent interactions among even a modest number of components, the scenario count becomes combinatorially intractable. This paper presents an alternate approach for quantifying the probability of failure propagation in such a case. Rather than explicitly defining scenario sequences, simple physical models are created for each of the components. In this way, only the physical states and rules of component interactions must be defined, rather than event sequences for each individual scenario. Initiating failures are introduced into the system, either randomly or as defined by relative likelihood, and the failures cascade through the system via the interaction rules. This process is repeated using Monte Carlo methods and, as a result, the most probable scenarios “self-evolve” in terms of both sequence path and frequency. This approach was applied to failures occurring in the engine compartment of a space launch vehicle with four liquid rocket engines and four high-pressure helium tanks. Each engine was modeled with key components, such as turbomachinery, combustion chamber, propellant lines, and additional support systems. Three test cases were conducted with different high-energy engine failures. End results of interest included an additional engine-out failure and tank burst, which represent the loss-of-mission (LOM) and loss-of-crew (LOC) failure environments, respectively. Observations show that almost every scenario outcome is unique and that many scenarios involve complex chain reactions that are difficult to predict. This validates the usefulness of the modeling approach in assessing the overall risks to the crew during a launch vehicle abort.

Rocket Engine↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accelerated Probabilistic Marching Cubes by Deep Learning for Time-Varying Scalar Ensembles

Visualizing the uncertainty of ensemble simulations is challenging due to the large size and multivariate and temporal features of en-semble data sets. One popular approach to studying the uncertainty of ensembles is analyzing the positional uncertainty of the level sets. Probabilistic marching cubes is a technique that performs Monte Carlo sampling of multivariate Gaussian noise distributions for positional uncertainty visualization of level sets. However, the technique suffers from high computational time, making interactive visualization and analysis impossible to achieve. This paper introduces a deep-learning-based approach to learning the level-set uncertainty for two-dimensional ensemble data with a multivariate Gaussian noise assumption. We train the model using the first few time steps from time-varying ensemble data in our workflow. We demonstrate that our trained model accurately infers uncertainty in level sets for new time steps and is up to 170X faster than that of the original probabilistic model with serial computation and 10X faster than that of the original parallel computation.

Han, Mengjiao↗
DOE OSTI2023

GPS Spoofing Mitigation and Timing Risk Analysis in Networked Phasor Measurement Units via Stochastic Reachability

To address phasor measurement unit (PMU) vulnerability to spoofing, we propose the use of a set-valued state estimation technique known as stochastic reachability (SR)-based distributed Kalman filter (DKF) that computes secure global positioning system (GPS) timing across a network of receivers. Utilizing SR, we estimate not only GPS time but also its stochastic reachable set, which is parameterized by probabilistic zonotope (p-Zonotope). While requiring known measurement error bounds in only non-spoofed conditions, we designed a two-tiered approach. We first performed measurement-level spoofing mitigation via deviation of a measurement innovation from its expected p-Zonotope. We then performed state-level timing risk analysis via a determination of the intersection probability of the estimated p-Zonotope with an unsafe set that violates IEEE C37.118.1a-2014 standards. Finally, we validated our SR-DKF algorithm by subjecting it to a simulated receiver network to coordinate signal-level spoofing. We demonstrate improved timing accuracy and successful spoofing mitigation via the use of our SR-DKF algorithm. We also validated the robustness of the estimated timing risk as the number of receivers were varied.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
NASA NTRS2005

Probabilisitc Geobiological Classification Using Elemental Abundance Distributions and Lossless Image Compression in Recent and Modern Organisms

Last year we presented techniques for the detection of fossils during robotic missions to Mars using both structural and chemical signatures[Storrie-Lombardi and Hoover, 2004]. Analyses included lossless compression of photographic images to estimate the relative complexity of a putative fossil compared to the rock matrix [Corsetti and Storrie-Lombardi, 2003] and elemental abundance distributions to provide mineralogical classification of the rock matrix [Storrie-Lombardi and Fisk, 2004]. We presented a classification strategy employing two exploratory classification algorithms (Principal Component Analysis and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis) and non-linear stochastic neural network to produce a Bayesian estimate of classification accuracy. We now present an extension of our previous experiments exploring putative fossil forms morphologically resembling cyanobacteria discovered in the Orgueil meteorite. Elemental abundances (C6, N7, O8, Na11, Mg12, Ai13, Si14, P15, S16, Cl17, K19, Ca20, Fe26) obtained for both extant cyanobacteria and fossil trilobites produce signatures readily distinguishing them from meteorite targets. When compared to elemental abundance signatures for extant cyanobacteria Orgueil structures exhibit decreased abundances for C6, N7, Na11, All3, P15, Cl17, K19, Ca20 and increases in Mg12, S16, Fe26. Diatoms and silicified portions of cyanobacterial sheaths exhibiting high levels of silicon and correspondingly low levels of carbon cluster more closely with terrestrial fossils than with extant cyanobacteria. Compression indices verify that variations in random and redundant textural patterns between perceived forms and the background matrix contribute significantly to morphological visual identification. The results provide a quantitative probabilistic methodology for discriminating putatitive fossils from the surrounding rock matrix and &om extant organisms using both structural and chemical information. The techniques described appear applicable to the geobiological analysis of meteoritic samples or in situ exploration of the Mars regolith. Keywords: cyanobacteria, microfossils, Mars, elemental abundances, complexity analysis, multifactor analysis, principal component analysis, hierarchical cluster analysis, artificial neural networks, paleo-biosignatures

Storrie-Lombardi, Michael C.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Day-Ahead Probabilistic Forecasting of Net-Load and Demand Response Potentials with High Penetration of Behind-the-Meter Solar-plus-Storage

The goal of this project is to develop advanced methods for day-ahead net-load forecasting, by leveraging the state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. The developed models produce both point and probabilistic forecasts for a variety of use cases, and are versatile to work with different types of data sets. The innovation lies in the novel design of the architectures, leveraging the most recent advances in machine learning that have not been explored in power systems, accompanied by techniques in the broader artificial intelligence fields such as fuzzy systems. This project has achieved the following accomplishments: (1) preprocessing of over 10 data sets covering varying geographical regions, time horizons, and system levels, which form a robust foundation for training and evaluating forecasting models across a wide range of realistic grid scenarios; (2) development of an interactive web app that enables exploratory analysis of load and generation data, and supports better understanding of data trends, anomalies, and correlations, facilitating model development and stakeholder engagement; (3) implementation of over 10 benchmark models for point and probabilistic forecasting, which include a mix of conventional machine learning methods and state-of-the-art deep learning approaches, providing a comprehensive baseline for performance comparison and validation of the proposed models; (4) development of a fuzzy system based gradient boosting model, tailored for small (less than 3 years) data sets, which achieves a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 4% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (5) development of a Transformer (a state-of-the-art deep learning architecture) based neural network model, tailored for large (3 years or more) data sets, which achieves a MAPE of 2% for point forecasting and a 20% improvement in average pinball loss for probabilistic forecasting; (6) development of a methodology for quantifying DR potential, and extensions of the previous models for multi-target forecasting of net load and DR potential, which achieve a MAPE of 10% for DR potential.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ocean & Geohazard Analysis Tool

The Ocean & Geohazard Analysis (OGA) software tool is designed to summarize insights into key offshore hazards drawing from a diverse set of approaches, including artificial intelligence, machine learning, probabilistic and statistical, and offshore data sources. The offshore hazards that can be analyzed include submarine landslides, extreme wind/wave/current event probabilities, earthquakes, and metocean pathways (CIAM Climatological Isolation and Attraction Model–Climatological Lagrangian Coherent Structures - Submissions - EDX (doe.gov)). Currently, the tool is developed for use in the Gulf of Mexico. The data underlying the offshore hazard analyses can be found here: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/gulf-of-mexico-risk-analysis-database-gomrad This work was conducted under the Advanced Offshore Research Portfolio, FWP Number 1022409 at National Energy Technology Laboratory, U.S. Dept. of Energy. Disclaimer This project was funded by the United States Department of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory, in part, through a site support contract. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, nor the support contractor, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof.

AIML↗
NASA NTRS2003

Development of Testing Methodologies for the Mechanical Properties of MEMS

This effort is to investigate and design testing strategies to determine the mechanical properties of MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) as well as investigate the development of a MEMS Probabilistic Design Methodology (PDM). One item of potential interest is the design of a test for the Weibull size effect in pressure membranes. The Weibull size effect is a consequence of a stochastic strength response predicted from the Weibull distribution. Confirming that MEMS strength is controlled by the Weibull distribution will enable the development of a probabilistic design methodology for MEMS - similar to the GRC developed CARES/Life program for bulk ceramics. However, the primary area of investigation will most likely be analysis and modeling of material interfaces for strength as well as developing a strategy to handle stress singularities at sharp corners, filets, and material interfaces. This will be a continuation of the previous years work. The ultimate objective of this effort is to further develop and verify the ability of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life (CARES/Life) code to predict the time-dependent reliability of MEMS structures subjected to multiple transient loads.

Ekwaro-Osire, Stephen↗
NASA NTRS2004

Image Analysis via Fuzzy-Reasoning Approach: Prototype Applications at NASA

A set of imaging techniques based on Fuzzy Reasoning (FR) approach was built for NASA at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) to perform complex real-time visual-related safety prototype tasks, such as detection and tracking of moving Foreign Objects Debris (FOD) during the NASA Space Shuttle liftoff and visual anomaly detection on slidewires used in the emergency egress system for Space Shuttle at the launch pad. The system has also proved its prospective in enhancing X-ray images used to screen hard-covered items leading to a better visualization. The system capability was used as well during the imaging analysis of the Space Shuttle Columbia accident. These FR-based imaging techniques include novel proprietary adaptive image segmentation, image edge extraction, and image enhancement. Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN) scheme available from NeuroShell(TM) Classifier and optimized via Genetic Algorithm (GA) was also used along with this set of novel imaging techniques to add powerful learning and image classification capabilities. Prototype applications built using these techniques have received NASA Space Awards, including a Board Action Award, and are currently being filed for patents by NASA; they are being offered for commercialization through the Research Triangle Institute (RTI), an internationally recognized corporation in scientific research and technology development. Companies from different fields, including security, medical, text digitalization, and aerospace, are currently in the process of licensing these technologies from NASA.

Dominguez, Jesus A.↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Computationally-Efficient Inverse Approach to Probabilistic Strain-Based Damage Diagnosis

This work presents a computationally-efficient inverse approach to probabilistic damage diagnosis. Given strain data at a limited number of measurement locations, Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling are used to estimate probability distributions of the unknown location, size, and orientation of damage. Substantial computational speedup is obtained by replacing a three-dimensional finite element (FE) model with an efficient surrogate model. The approach is experimentally validated on cracked test specimens where full field strains are determined using digital image correlation (DIC). Access to full field DIC data allows for testing of different hypothetical sensor arrangements, facilitating the study of strain-based diagnosis effectiveness as the distance between damage and measurement locations increases. The ability of the framework to effectively perform both probabilistic damage localization and characterization in cracked plates is demonstrated and the impact of measurement location on uncertainty in the predictions is shown. Furthermore, the analysis time to produce these predictions is orders of magnitude less than a baseline Bayesian approach with the FE method by utilizing surrogate modeling and effective numerical sampling approaches.

Warner, James E.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Reliability and Creep/Fatigue Analysis of a CMC Component

High temperature ceramic matrix composites (CMC) are being explored as viable candidate materials for hot section gas turbine components. These advanced composites can potentially lead to reduced weight and enable higher operating temperatures requiring less cooling; thus leading to increased engine efficiencies. There is a need for convenient design tools that can accommodate various loading conditions and material data with their associated uncertainties to estimate the minimum predicted life as well as the failure probabilities of a structural component. This paper presents a review of the life prediction and probabilistic analyses performed for a CMC turbine stator vane. A computer code, NASALife, is used to predict the life of a 2-D woven silicon carbide fiber reinforced silicon carbide matrix (SiC/SiC) turbine stator vane due to a mission cycle which induces low cycle fatigue and creep. The output from this program includes damage from creep loading, damage due to cyclic loading and the combined damage due to the given loading cycle. Results indicate that the trends predicted by NASALife are as expected for the loading conditions used for this study. In addition, a combination of woven composite micromechanics, finite element structural analysis and Fast Probability Integration (FPI) techniques has been used to evaluate the maximum stress and its probabilistic distribution in a CMC turbine stator vane. Input variables causing scatter are identified and ranked based upon their sensitivity magnitude. Results indicate that reducing the scatter in proportional limit strength of the vane material has the greatest effect in improving the overall reliability of the CMC vane.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Bayesian and HRA-Aided Method for the Novel Reliability Analysis of Software

Technological advancements and nuclear power plant modernization has inspired considerable research in the areas of safety and reliability, yet there remains a lack of consensus for the reliability assessment of digital instrumentation and control (I&C) systems. Motivated by the lack of consensus for reliability analysis methods, this work employs a novel framework that incorporates Bayesian, human reliability, and common-cause failure (CCF) modeling techniques. The novel framework allows the use of state-of-the-art or classical modeling techniques when accounting for human and CCF effects on system reliability. The Bayesian and HRA-Aided Method for the Reliability Analysis of Software (BAHAMAS) is demonstrated by a case study for the quantification of software hazards found in a previous analysis of a digital reactor trip system. The results demonstrate the ability of BAHAMAS to account for human activities during the software development life cycle and their influence on software reliability. BAHAMAS is a flexible tool for extending the coverage of conventional probabilistic risk assessments to include modernized digital I&C systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗