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NASA NTRS2016

Model-Based Fatigue Prognosis of Fiber-Reinforced Laminates Exhibiting Concurrent Damage Mechanisms

Prognostics of large composite structures is a topic of increasing interest in the field of structural health monitoring for aerospace, civil, and mechanical systems. Along with recent advancements in real-time structural health data acquisition and processing for damage detection and characterization, model-based stochastic methods for life prediction are showing promising results in the literature. Among various model-based approaches, particle-filtering algorithms are particularly capable in coping with uncertainties associated with the process. These include uncertainties about information on the damage extent and the inherent uncertainties of the damage propagation process. Some efforts have shown successful applications of particle filtering-based frameworks for predicting the matrix crack evolution and structural stiffness degradation caused by repetitive fatigue loads. Effects of other damage modes such as delamination, however, are not incorporated in these works. It is well established that delamination and matrix cracks not only co-exist in most laminate structures during the fatigue degradation process but also affect each other's progression. Furthermore, delamination significantly alters the stress-state in the laminates and accelerates the material degradation leading to catastrophic failure. Therefore, the work presented herein proposes a particle filtering-based framework for predicting a structure's remaining useful life with consideration of multiple co-existing damage-mechanisms. The framework uses an energy-based model from the composite modeling literature. The multiple damage-mode model has been shown to suitably estimate the energy release rate of cross-ply laminates as affected by matrix cracks and delamination modes. The model is also able to estimate the reduction in stiffness of the damaged laminate. This information is then used in the algorithms for life prediction capabilities. First, a brief summary of the energy-based damage model is provided. Then, the paper describes how the model is embedded within the prognostic framework and how the prognostics performance is assessed using observations from run-to-failure experiments

Prognostics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Characterization of Urban Air Mobility Vehicle Operational Noise and Community Noise Impact

This presentation focuses on the process for predicting urban air mobility (UAM) vehicle noise at the source and how that can be used to estimate and mitigate the impact on the community. Following conceptual design, in which the vehicle is appropriately sized for its intended mission, a comprehensive analysis must be performed for a range of operating conditions spanning the flight envelope to determine the corresponding configurations of the vehicle, that is, the trimmed states. Many UAM vehicles have redundant controls, so the trimmed state for any particular operating condition may not be unique, with some states producing more noise than others. For each trimmed state, the noise produced by each source, for example, steady and unsteady rotor noise, inclusive of propulsion airframe aeroacoustic effects, may be computed and so-called source noise (hemi)spheres generated. The data may be used for analyses supporting noise certification or serve as input to auralizations (turning the numerical data into an audible sound) that can subsequently be used as part of a perception-influenced acoustic design process. Land use planning tools, including those using simulation and integrated modeling approaches, also use these (or derived) data to generate noise exposure maps on the ground. Finally, the data may be used to support development of low noise flight operations using an acoustic flight simulator or acoustically aware flight control.

urban air mobility↗

DOE OSTI2023

Predicting future well performance for environmental remediation design using deep learning

Here in this study, we developed a deep learning (DL) framework with a multi-channel three-dimensional convolutional neural network (MC3D-CNN) to predict well performance and thereby assist future environmental remediation design. Such prediction of extraction well performance at designated locations is critical for configuring pump-and-treat (P&T) well network design and operation, setting reasonable target closure dates for overall remedying, and estimating remedy costs. The framework is developed with operational and monitoring data routinely collected during P&T remedy operations, including well extraction and injection rates as well as in situ contaminant concentrations. Traditionally, the collected data were rarely used for purposes other than assessing past well performance and the accuracy of the conceptual site model. However, recent advances in data-driven computational approaches enable better use of the large datasets to inform future well performance, enhance site characterization, and improve remediation planning. In this study, we established a DL framework to integrate transient three-dimensional contaminant plumes and multiple aquifer properties (e.g., hydraulic conductivity and hydrostratigraphic maps) to identify characteristic patterns controlling and representing extraction well mass recovery, aiming at providing future mass recovery estimates for existing wells and candidate wells at any proposed locations. We evaluated our framework by using a realistic synthetic dataset generated from a well-calibrated flow and transport model used in the 200 West Area of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hanford Site in southeastern Washington state. The multi-channel feature in our framework allows integration of various types and temporal densities of training datasets for DL model development. Overall, we found that the trained DL model achieved an accuracy of over 90% in ranking extraction well performance in validation datasets, and over 80% in predicting high-performance-ranking well locations. This data-informed approach provides a flexible tool to support adaptive site management, streamline decision-making, and potentially reduce remediation time and costs. Our DL framework can be used as a filtering tool to improve the current P&T network optimization design by reducing the number of candidate well locations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian Approach for Statistical–Physical Bulk Parameterization of Rain Microphysics. Part II: Idealized Markov Chain Monte Carlo Experiments

Observationally informed development of a new framework for bulk rain microphysics, the Bayesian Observationally Constrained Statistical–Physical Scheme (BOSS; described in Part I of this study), is demonstrated. This scheme’s development is motivated by large uncertainties in cloud and weather simulations associated with approximations and assumptions in existing microphysics schemes. Here, a proof-of-concept study is introduced using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm with BOSS to probabilistically estimate microphysical process rates and parameters directly from a set of synthetically generated rain observations. The framework utilized is an idealized steady-state one-dimensional column rainshaft model with specified column-top rain properties and a fixed thermodynamical profile. Different configurations of BOSS—flexibility being a key feature of this approach—are constrained via synthetic observations generated from a traditional three-moment bulk microphysics scheme. The ability to retrieve correct parameter values when the true parameter values are known is illustrated. For cases when there is no set of true parameter values, the accuracy of configurations of BOSS that have different levels of complexity is compared. It is found that addition of the sixth moment as a prognostic variable improves prediction of the third moment (proportional to bulk rain mass) and rain rate. In contrast, increasing process rate formulation complexity by adding more power terms has little benefit—a result that is explained using further-idealized experiments. BOSS rainshaft simulations are shown to well estimate the true process rates from constraint by bulk rain observations, with the further benefit of rigorously quantified uncertainty of these estimates.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Application of a temporal multiscale method for efficient simulation of degradation in PEM Water Electrolysis under dynamic operating conditions

Hydrogen is emerging as a vital energy carrier, driven by the need to reduce carbon emissions. Proton Electrolyte Membrane Water Electrolysis (PEMWE) enables hydrogen production under fluctuating renewable power conditions but requires improved understanding and stability of the anode catalyst layer under dynamic operating conditions, especially with low noble metal loadings. Long-term degradation experiments are both time-consuming and costly; therefore, a systematic, model-aided approach is essential. In the present work, a temporal multiscale method is applied to reduce the computational effort of simulating long-term degradation processes in PEMWE, with an exemplary focus on catalyst dissolution. A mechanistic model incorporating the oxygen evolution reaction, catalyst dissolution, and hydrogen permeation from the cathode to the anode was hypothesized and implemented. In this way, the local periodicity of transport and reaction processes in dynamic PEMWE operation, which influence the gradual degradation of the catalyst layer, is captured. The temporal multiscale method significantly reduces the computational effort of simulation, decreasing processing time from hours to mere minutes. This efficiency gain is attributed to the limited evolution of Slow-Scale variables during each period of time P of the Fast-Scale variables. Consequently, simulation is required only until local periodicity is achieved within each Slow-Scale time step. Hence, the fully resolved dynamic problem is decoupled into these two scales, employing a heterogeneous multiscale technique. The developed approach effectively accelerates parameter estimation and predictive simulations, supporting systematic modeling of PEMWE degradation under dynamic conditions.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Development of a thermal creep model for aluminum alloy 6061 cladding in U-10Mo monolithic fuel plates

Plate-type fuel elements consisting of a high-density, low-enriched uranium (LEU) U–10Mo-based fuel foil encapsulated in an aluminum alloy (AA) cladding are fabricated using the hot isostatic pressing (HIP) technique. During the HIP process, the fuel plate system is heated to 560 °C, then cooled to room temperature. This heat cycle significantly affects the mechanical properties of the aluminum cladding, and experimental investigations have shown that, post-HIP bonding, the mechanical properties of the aluminum cladding transition from those of AA 6061-T6 to something closer to the O temper. More specifically, the ultimate strength of the cladding decreases while its ductility increases, making it challenging to capture the changes in mechanical behavior and material properties. Understanding the residual stresses generated during the HIP process is critical for assessing the fuel plate’s integrity under various temperature, pressure, and irradiation. To simulate the HIP bonding process, the elastic, plastic, and thermal properties of the cladding are assumed to be similar to those of AA 6061-O temper. However, the primary challenge lies in the lack of available data for the creep model of the AA 6061 cladding during this transient process of HIP. The present study focuses on developing a computational model that predicts the creep behavior of the aluminum cladding in the fuel plates during the HIP process, as cladding creep significantly influences the residual stresses generated in U-10Mo fuel plates during HIP fabrication. Furthermore, as HIP bonding occurs at high temperatures that are nearing the melting point of aluminum, the present work considered a temperature-dependent Arrhenius-type creep model. In particular, a hyperbolic sine creep model is employed to estimate the creep properties of the as-fabricated aluminum cladding. In conclusion, the residual stresses predicted in the U-10Mo fuel when using the newly calibrated creep model closely align with the experimental measurements, validating the model’s accuracy.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dynamic Multipoles in the RCS

The Rapid Cycling Synchrotron (RCS) of the Electron--Ion Collider (EIC) will accelerate polarized electrons up to 18 GeV at a repetition rate of 1 Hz. Dynamic multipoles driven by eddy currents in the vacuum chamber can affect beam dynamics and polarization preservation during the energy ramp. Building on the analytical treatment of S.Y. Lee for a ramped normal-conducting dipole magnet, we use conformal transformations to derive compact expressions for dynamic multipoles in higher-order ramped magnets with circular beam pipes. We further derive analytical frequency-domain transfer functions for both self-response and cross-response multipoles, providing compact dynamical models for their evolution during arbitrary ramp waveforms. The resulting analytical predictions are benchmarked against finite-element simulations, including the effects of practical pole geometry and beam-pipe misalignment. Finally, the expected dynamic multipoles in the RCS magnets are estimated and their implications for beam dynamics and polarization preservation are discussed.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Predicting soot and radiation in pool fires using flamelet methods

This work provides an overview of the ongoing research to better estimate radiation and soot in large-scale pool fires. The core focus of this presentation is on improvements to models for novel physics at larger scales.

Meehan, Michael Alexander [Sandia National Laborat↗

NASA NTRS1993

CFD flowfield simulation of Delta Launch Vehicles in a power-on configuration

This paper summarizes recent work at McDonnell Douglas Aerospace (MDA) to develop and validate computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations of under expanded rocket plume external flowfields for multibody expendable launch vehicles (ELVs). Multi engine reacting gas flowfield predictions of ELV base pressures are needed to define vehicle base drag and base heating rates for sizing external nozzle and base region insulation thicknesses. Previous ELV design programs used expensive multibody power-on wind tunnel tests that employed chamber/nozzle injected high pressure cold or hot-air. Base heating and pressure measurements were belatedly made during the first flights of past ELV's to correct estimates from semi-empirical engineering models or scale model tests. Presently, CFD methods for use in ELV design are being jointly developed at the Space Transportation Division (MDA-STD) and New Aircraft Missiles Division (MDA-NAMD). An explicit three dimensional, zonal, finite-volume, full Navier-Stokes (FNS) solver with finite rate hydrocarbon/air and aluminum combustion kinetics was developed to accurately compute ELV power-on flowfields. Mississippi State University's GENIE++ general purpose interactive grid generation code was chosen to create zonal, finite volume viscous grids. Axisymmetric, time dependent, turbulent CFD simulations of a Delta DSV-2A vehicle with a MB-3 liquid main engine burning RJ-1/LOX were first completed. Hydrocarbon chemical kinetics and a k-epsilon turbulence model were employed and predictions were validated with flight measurements of base pressure and temperature. Zonal internal/external grids were created for a Delta DSV-2C vehicle with a MB-3 and three Castor-1 solid motors burning and a Delta-2 with an RS-27 main engine (LOX/RP-1) and 9 GEM's attached/6 burning. Cold air, time dependent FNS calculations were performed for DSV-2C during 1992. Single phase simulations that employ finite rate hydrocarbon and aluminum (solid fuel) combustion chemistry are currently in progress. Reliable and efficient Eulerian algorithms are needed to model two phase (solid-gas) momentum and energy transfer mechanisms for solid motor fuel combustion products.

Pavish, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Some fundamental aspects of the fatigue and fracture response of composite materials

A simple analytical model, based on the concept that the constraining plies surrounding cracks through the thickness of a given ply or plies control the spacing of those cracks by controlling the surrounding stress state, appears to agree well with experimental data. Such a model can be used to evaluate critically various constraint situations including the prediction of the ability of a given constraint layer to arrest flaw development. The analytical model, which uses an equilibrium element approach in the present case, is sensitive to lamina and laminate elastic properties, flaw size, stacking sequence, and an interlaminar stress transfer distance which is estimated from experimental observations. The analysis is easily extended to study flaw growth and plastic region formation.

Reifsnider, K. L.↗

NASA NTRS1993

A study of fiber volume fraction effects in notched unidirectional SCS-6/Ti-15V-3Cr-3Al-3Sn composite

Notched unidirectional SCS-6/Ti-15-3 composite of three different fiber volume fractions (vf = 0.15, 0.37, and 0.41) was investigated for various room temperature microstructural and material properties including: fatigue crack initiation, fatigue crack growth, and fracture toughness. While the matrix hardness is similar for all fiber volume fractions, the fiber/matrix interfacial shear strength and matrix residual stress increases with fiber volume fraction. The composite fatigue crack initiation stress is shown to be matrix controlled and occurs when the net maximum matrix stress approaches the endurance limit stress of the matrix. A model is presented which includes residual stresses and presents the composite initiation stress as a function of fiber volume fraction. This model predicts a maximum composite initiation stress at vf approximately 0.15 which agrees with the experimental data. The applied composite stress levels were increased as necessary for continued crack growth. The applied Delta(K) values at crack arrest increase with fiber volume fraction by an amount better approximated using an energy based formulation rather than when scaled linear with modulus. After crack arrest, the crack growth rate exponents for vf37 and vf41 were much lower and toughness much higher, when compared to the unreinforced matrix, because of the bridged region which parades with the propagating fatigue crack. However, the vf15 material exhibited a higher crack growth rate exponent and lower toughness than the unreinforced matrix because once the bridged fibers nearest the crack mouth broke, the stress redistribution broke all bridged fibers, leaving an unbridged crack. Degraded, unbridged behavior is modeled using the residual stress state in the matrix ahead of the crack tip. Plastic zone sizes were directly measured using a metallographic technique and allow prediction of an effective matrix stress intensity which agrees with the fiber pressure model if residual stresses are considered. The sophisticated macro/micro finite element models of the 0.15 and 0.37 fiber volume fractions presented show good agreement with experimental data and the fiber pressure model when an estimated effective fiber/matrix debond length is used.

Covey, Steven J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Verification of thermal analysis codes for modeling solid rocket nozzles

One of the objectives of the Solid Propulsion Integrity Program (SPIP) at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is development of thermal analysis codes capable of accurately predicting the temperature field, pore pressure field and the surface recession experienced by decomposing polymers which are used as thermal barriers in solid rocket nozzles. The objective of this study is to provide means for verifications of thermal analysis codes developed for modeling of flow and heat transfer in solid rocket nozzles. In order to meet the stated objective, a test facility was designed and constructed for measurement of the transient temperature field in a sample composite subjected to a constant heat flux boundary condition. The heating was provided via a steel thin-foil with a thickness of 0.025 mm. The designed electrical circuit can provide a heating rate of 1800 W. The heater was sandwiched between two identical samples, and thus ensure equal power distribution between them. The samples were fitted with Type K thermocouples, and the exact location of the thermocouples were determined via X-rays. The experiments were modeled via a one-dimensional code (UT1D) as a conduction and phase change heat transfer process. Since the pyrolysis gas flow was in the direction normal to the heat flow, the numerical model could not account for the convection cooling effect of the pyrolysis gas flow. Therefore, the predicted values in the decomposition zone are considered to be an upper estimate of the temperature. From the analysis of the experimental and the numerical results the following are concluded: (1) The virgin and char specific heat data for FM 5055 as reported by SoRI can not be used to obtain any reasonable agreement between the measured temperatures and the predictions. However, use of virgin and char specific heat data given in Acurex report produced good agreement for most of the measured temperatures. (2) Constant heat flux heating process can produce a much higher heating rate than the radiative heating process. The results show that heating rates of 125 C/s (225 F/s) can be achieved. (3) The electrical resistance of the FM 5055 samples were about 150 Omega in the virgin state, and decreased to about 35 Omega when charred. A reliable scheme must be developed to electrically insulate the composite from the heater foil in order to prevent any current leakage into the sample which can result in volumetric heating of the char zone of the composite.

Keyhani, M.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Estimates of Lake Nitrogen, Phosphorus, and Chlorophyll‐ a Concentrations to Characterize Harmful Algal Bloom Risk Across the United States

Abstract Excess nutrient pollution contributes to the formation of harmful algal blooms (HABs) that compromise fisheries and recreation and that can directly endanger human and animal health via cyanotoxins. Efforts to quantify the occurrence, drivers, and severity of HABs across large areas is difficult due to the resource intensive nature of field monitoring of lake nutrient and chlorophyll‐aconcentrations. To better characterize how nutrients interact with other environmental factors to produce algal blooms in freshwater systems, we used spatially explicit and temporally matched climate, landscape, in‐lake characteristic, and nutrient inventory data sets to predict nutrients and chlorophyll‐aacross the conterminous US (CONUS). Using a nested modeling approach, three random forest (RF) models were trained to explain the spatiotemporal variation in total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and chlorophyll‐aconcentrations across US EPA's National Lakes Assessment (n = 2,062). Concentrations of TN and TP were the most important predictors and, with other variables, the RF model accounted for 68% of variation in chlorophyll‐a. We then used these RF models to extrapolate lake TN and TP predictions to lakes without nutrient observations and predict chlorophyll‐afor ∼112,000 lakes across the CONUS. Risk for high chlorophyll‐aconcentrations is highest in the agriculturally dominated Midwest, but other areas of risk emerge in nutrient pollution hot spots across the country. These catchment and lake‐specific results can help managers identify potential nutrient pollution and chlorophyll‐ahot spots that may fuel blooms, prioritize at‐risk lakes for additional monitoring, and optimize management to protect human health and other environmental end goals.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2020

Measurement of the Spectral Shape of the $β$-Decay of 137 Xe to the Ground State of 137 Cs in EXO-200 and Comparison with Theory

Herein we report on a comparison between the theoretically predicted and experimentally measured spectra of the first-forbidden nonunique $β$-decay transition 137 Xe ( 7/2 - ) → 137 Cs ( 7/2 + ) . The experimental data were acquired by the EXO-200 experiment during a deployment of an AmBe neutron source. The ultralow background environment of EXO-200, together with dedicated source deployment and analysis procedures, allowed for collection of a pure sample of the decays, with an estimated signal to background ratio of more than 99 to 1 in the energy range from 1075 to 4175 keV. In addition to providing a rare and accurate measurement of the first-forbidden nonunique $β$-decay shape, this work constitutes a novel test of the calculated electron spectral shapes in the context of the reactor antineutrino anomaly and spectral bump.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS2021

Investigating the potential of a global precipitation forecast to inform landslide prediction

Extreme rainfall events within landslide-prone areas can be catastrophic, resulting in loss of property, infrastructure, and life. A global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model provides routine near-real time estimates of landslide hazard using Integrated Multi-Satellite Precipitation Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Mission (IMERG). However, it does not provide information on potential landslide hazard in the future. Forecasting potential landslide events at a global scale presents an area of open research. This study compares a global precipitation forecast provided by NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) with near-real time satellite precipitation estimates. The Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor gauge corrected (MRMS-GC) reference is used to assess the performance of both satellite and model-based precipitation products over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The forecast lead time of 24hrs is considered, with a focus on extreme precipitation events. The performance of IMERG and GEOS-Forecast products is assessed in terms of the probability of detection, success ratio, critical success index and hit bias as well as continuous statistics. The results show that seasonality influences the performance of both satellite and model-based precipitation products. Comparison of IMERG and GEOS-Forecast globally as well as in several event case studies (Colombia, southeast Asia, and Tajikistan) reveals that GEOS-Forecast detects extreme rainfall more frequently relative to IMERG for these specific analyses. For recent landslide points across the globe, the 24hr accumulated precipitation forecast >100 mm corresponds well with near-real time daily accumulated IMERG precipitation estimates. GEOS-Forecast and IMERG precipitation match more closely for tropical cyclones than for other types of storms. The main intention of this study is to assess the viability of using a global forecast for landslide predictions and understand the extent of the variability between these products to inform where we would expect the landslide modeling results to most prominently diverge. Results of this study will be used to inform how forecasted precipitation estimates can be incorporated into the LHASA model to provide the first global predictive view of landslide hazards.

S. Khan↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mass Inferencing Model Creation and Deployment to the RASSOR Lunar Excavation Robot

The Regolith Advanced Surface Systems Operations Robot (RASSOR) Excavator is a mobile robotic bucket-drum excavator platform with a unique space regolith excavation capability. The Intelligent Capabilities Enhanced RASSOR research project developed functionality for estimating the quantity of regolith mass ingested during RASSOR operation, enhancing RASSOR’s ability to successfully complete In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) missions. To teleoperate or run autonomously, it is crucial for the amount of regolith mass ingested to be available as a system state for efficient operation. For example, during autonomous operation, RASSOR should navigate and move to a processing plant to offload the collected regolith when the drums are full; without knowledge of the total mass in the drums, this type of high-level planning is not possible. Three distinct modeling approaches were employed in developing a mass inferencing approach that could work on RASSOR, none of which require modification to the hardware. All take in system states, such as arm/drum motor positions, velocities, currents, voltages, and robot pose, and output a mass prediction for each set of the robot’s bucket drums. The developed models run in real-time, outputting predictions for the front drum mass, rear drum mass, timestamp of the last prediction, and total drum mass (sum of front and rear) in RASSOR’s drums. Models deployed to the hardware have low error (<7.5% mean error over the mass range, and <2.6% mean error when drums are more than half full) when making predictions in real-time. Our modeling approach can be adapted to use lunar excavation data to create models that are reflective of RASSOR’s dynamics when operating on the lunar surface. The results of this work are promising and show that models can be developed to accurately estimate excavated regolith mass.

Bucket Drum Excavators↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mass Inferencing Model Creation and Deployment to the RASSOR Lunar Excavation Robot

bucket drum excavators↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multiple Operando Fields Can Identify a Predictive Mass Transport Theory in Electrolytes

An electrolyte transport theory connects its transport properties, evolution of spatiotemporal fields (e.g., concentration), and corresponding macroscopic current and voltage responses. Given this interconnection, the transport properties are typically inferred by analyzing the macroscopic response through the lens of a chosen electrolyte transport theory. Unfortunately, the same macroscopic measurements can be analyzed by using different theories to arrive at seemingly dissimilar properties that are inconsistent with each other. Here, we offer a resolution to this dilemma by analyzing multiple spatiotemporal (i.e., operando) fields for a given electrolyte. We show that predictive transport theory can analyze operando fields to estimate underlying transport properties and subsequently predict another operando field. A theory passing this test identifies meaningful transport properties such that the electrolyte behavior can be accurately predicted over a wide range of excitations, and is critical to property-based electrolyte screening and electrolyte discovery efforts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗